Suppose I wanted to order a new large freighter in 2017. There is no A380F, so I think my choices are 747-8F vs 777F.

Does anyone know how the 777F and the 747-8F are doing against each other?

What are the advantages and disadvantages of each? Here is my guess (and I'm so ready to be corrected)

Pro 747-8F
Supply of spare parts from Boeing will last longer
Lower cost per ton-km
Nose door

Pro 777F
Lower per trip cost
Lower current acquisition cost
Can get one delivered sooner
More places can maintain it
More certain depreciation schedule .. therefore easier to finance.

Why would parts supplies last longer for the 747 vs 777? I’d imagine the worldwide fleet of 777s will outlive the 747s by far, even current generation planes such as those on which the 777F is based.

hOMSaR wrote:

Why would parts supplies last longer for the 747 vs 777? I’d imagine the worldwide fleet of 777s will outlive the 747s by far, even current generation planes such as those on which the 777F is based.

There's a load of airlines with very new 77W's, and more with 77Ws still on order, there's 15-20 years in the 777 supply chain yet...

The 747-8F has more capacity but less range, and vice versa for the 777F. And the nose definitely helps with odd shaped cargo. 4 engines probably also helps it perform better in high/hot places

For small package express the 777 can get from Asia back to the US in time for the overnight sort. DHL and FedEx both beat UPS by a day.

JamesCousins wrote:

hOMSaR wrote:

Why would parts supplies last longer for the 747 vs 777? I’d imagine the worldwide fleet of 777s will outlive the 747s by far, even current generation planes such as those on which the 777F is based.

There's a load of airlines with very new 77W's, and more with 77Ws still on order, there's 15-20 years in the 777 supply chain yet...

What you wrote is true. But 15-20 Years is not really enough.

Boeing is planning to make 747-8s past 2020. The 777 classic line will stop before that. On the other hand there are 167 777F ordered or delivered, and only 89 747-8F.

You might be right.

kitplane01 wrote:

Does anyone know how the 777F and the 747-8F are doing against each other?

The 747-8 has secured a total of 89 orders through the end of November.

The 777F has secured a total of 165 orders through the end of November.

So the 777F is about twice as popular as the 747-8F in terms of orders.

kitplane01 wrote:

Boeing is planning to make 747-8s past 2020. The 777 classic line will stop before that. On the other hand there are 167 777F ordered or delivered, and only 89 747-8F.

The 777 Freighter will still be available after the 777X enters service and I expect Boeing will still be willing to build a 777-200LR or 777-300ER while the Freighter is still on offer.

And while Boeing is planning to build 747-8Fs past 2020, they currently barely have sufficient unfilled orders at the current six per annum production rate to meet 2020, much less beyond.

geologyrocks wrote:

For small package express the 777 can get from Asia back to the US in time for the overnight sort. DHL and FedEx both beat UPS by a day.

That surprises me.

A 747-8F cruises at M0.85. A 777F cruises at M0.84.

The distance from Hong Kong -> SFO (for example) is about 7000nm. A 747-8F can carry just under 200,000 lbs to that range. A 777F can carry about 150,000 lbs to that range. Maybe it's something more about UPS and not about the airplanes?

Payload range charts
http://theaviationspecialist.com/748f_prc.gif
http://www.brinkley.cc/BCImage/aci/B777F/b777f_p.gif

Stitch wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Does anyone know how the 777F and the 747-8F are doing against each other?

The 747-8 has secured a total of 89 orders through the end of November.

The 777F has secured a total of 165 orders through the end of November.

So the 777F is about twice as popular as the 747-8F in terms of orders.

kitplane01 wrote:

Boeing is planning to make 747-8s past 2020. The 777 classic line will stop before that. On the other hand there are 167 777F ordered or delivered, and only 89 747-8F.

The 777 Freighter will still be available after the 777X enters service and I expect Boeing will still be willing to build a 777-200LR or 777-300ER while the Freighter is still on offer.

And while Boeing is planning to build 747-8Fs past 2020, they currently barely have sufficient unfilled orders at the current six per annum production rate to meet 2020, much less beyond.

Did Boeing really say this? Is it not the case that shoe-horning an old-style 777F into the 777-X production line will be problematic, and add costs to the system?

I am willing to bet the current acquisition cost for a 747-8F is less than a 777-F.

geologyrocks wrote:

For small package express the 777 can get from Asia back to the US in time for the overnight sort. DHL and FedEx both beat UPS by a day.

This isn't accurate. Look at the great circle routing for HKG-SDF. Pretty close to ANC. UPS elects to load up the 747 and land in ANC, swap crews and continue onward. Maybe 2-3 hrs later than the 777F but with much more payload carried.

kitplane01 wrote:

geologyrocks wrote:

For small package express the 777 can get from Asia back to the US in time for the overnight sort. DHL and FedEx both beat UPS by a day.

That surprises me.

A 747-8F cruises at M0.85. A 777F cruises at M0.84.

The distance from Hong Kong -> SFO (for example) is about 7000nm. A 747-8F can carry just under 200,000 lbs to that range. A 777F can carry about 150,000 lbs to that range. Maybe it's something more about UPS and not about the airplanes?

Payload range charts
http://theaviationspecialist.com/748f_prc.gif
http://www.brinkley.cc/BCImage/aci/B777F/b777f_p.gif

I don’t know. I do know that DHL has a 777 to Cincinnati from Hong Kong and FedEx runs from Hong Kong and Tokyo to Memphis nonstop in time for their sorts but UPS is going to go back to Louisville by way of Anchorage and officially adding an extra day in transit.

It's easy to immediately idealize the 747 freighter.

You need more data points because the two planes can do different missions successfully. They occupy two overlapping mission spaces. If I were trying to build a plan for you, I would need to know more about what you're specifically trying to accomplish.

Let's elaborate, in terms of questions we would need to ask our imaginary client:

What are you hauling?

How far are you hauling it?

How often are you hauling it?

As for the cruise speed differences - these are negligible speed differences that can be totally negated by weather patterns and turnaround times.

You're talking about a 10-20 knot airspeed difference between the B747 and B777. For more fuel burn over the same trip!

Differences in turnaround time could come from a bunch of factors: crew familiarity with the airport and route, ground crew familiarity with the type, cargo fragility, weather, airport size and scheduling, so on and so forth.

Looking at type is not the best metric. Boeing has a plane for most markets. The A380F is not a reality because it doesn't need to be.

When you look at the questions and consider your mission, what do you think the best type for cargo is?

UPS757Pilot wrote:

I am willing to bet the current acquisition cost for a 747-8F is less than a 777-F.

geologyrocks wrote:

For small package express the 777 can get from Asia back to the US in time for the overnight sort. DHL and FedEx both beat UPS by a day.

This isn't accurate. Look at the great circle routing for HKG-SDF. Pretty close to ANC. UPS elects to load up the 747 and land in ANC, swap crews and continue onward. Maybe 2-3 hrs later than the 777F but with much more payload carried.

Interesting that they choose to do that. I figured it had to do with too heavy of a payload to make it. Korean used to fly 747’s from Seoul to Atlanta but the Korean cargo ones never go to/from nonstop. They’re always going to/from Anchorage and occasionally Seattle. Cathay and Dynasty (I guess that’s Air China) always stop in Anchorage to from Atlanta.

geologyrocks wrote:

UPS757Pilot wrote:

I am willing to bet the current acquisition cost for a 747-8F is less than a 777-F.

geologyrocks wrote:

For small package express the 777 can get from Asia back to the US in time for the overnight sort. DHL and FedEx both beat UPS by a day.

This isn't accurate. Look at the great circle routing for HKG-SDF. Pretty close to ANC. UPS elects to load up the 747 and land in ANC, swap crews and continue onward. Maybe 2-3 hrs later than the 777F but with much more payload carried.

Interesting that they choose to do that. I figured it had to do with too heavy of a payload to make it. Korean used to fly 747’s from Seoul to Atlanta but the Korean cargo ones never go to/from nonstop. They’re always going to/from Anchorage and occasionally Seattle. Cathay and Dynasty (I guess that’s Air China) always stop in Anchorage to from Atlanta.

It could make sense to do that from an overall cost / efficiency standpoint even if they could make the trip nonstop. If they plan for a stopover to refuel, they don't have to carry the weight of as much fuel when they leave Asia -- gaining either less fuel burn or more cargo capacity. Cargo doesn't complain about a refueling stop the way passengers would.

kitplane01 wrote:

Did Boeing really say this?

Yes, because there is not a freighter version of the 777-8 and probably will not be for some years after entry into service for the type.

kitplane01 wrote:

Is it not the case that shoe-horning an old-style 777F into the 777-X production line will be problematic, and add costs to the system?

The 777 production line can build both families at the same time. The first 777X frames will be interleaved with 777 freighters and 777-300ERs.

kitplane01 wrote:

JamesCousins wrote:

hOMSaR wrote:

Why would parts supplies last longer for the 747 vs 777? I’d imagine the worldwide fleet of 777s will outlive the 747s by far, even current generation planes such as those on which the 777F is based.

There's a load of airlines with very new 77W's, and more with 77Ws still on order, there's 15-20 years in the 777 supply chain yet...

What you wrote is true. But 15-20 Years is not really enough.

Boeing is planning to make 747-8s past 2020. The 777 classic line will stop before that. On the other hand there are 167 777F ordered or delivered, and only 89 747-8F.

You might be right.

Even after the line ends though there will be 777s pax models converted into freighters and 777s in the desert littered with spares. The 747 400 line ended 8 years ago now, and many airlines, namely VS, BA & LH are planning to operate fairly sizable fleets upto 2025. The 747-8 may be produced for longer, but I'm not convinced availability of spares is a huge factor for cargo airlines to be honest.