Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
kitplane01 wrote:These planes likely have bad economics, in terms of the total package of purchase cost and operating costs
kitplane01 wrote:Note that very few airlines outside of China will order them. Note the non-advanced technologies involved.
kitplane01 wrote:Most people believe the orders these planes have received were commanded by the Chinese central government.
kitplane01 wrote:How takes the economic loss? Is Comac selling them for way under cost? Are the airlines expected to pay the extra costs themselves? Is there some sort of government subsidy? Somebody must be paying.
VirginFlyer wrote:kitplane01 wrote:These planes likely have bad economics, in terms of the total package of purchase cost and operating costs
Is there any evidence to back this up?
kitplane01 wrote:(1) Their using CF-34 engines, for a plane just entering service in 2017. That's old technology. The competing ERJ-170 which also uses the CF-34 was in airline service in 2004, and is being replaced by a better plane with a better engine.
kitplane01 wrote:(2) You can find their order book at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_ARJ21
kitplane01 wrote:But really I don't want to debate this point. It's OK if we disagree.
ADent wrote:Neither of the planes have or will likely ever get FAA certification (esp the ARJ). So no sales to the worlds major carriers.
ADent wrote:But the 737 and A320 lines are very efficient machines and I bet the Chinese can not undercut by a huge amount.
VSMUT wrote:On the subject of financial viability, both Airbus and Embraer generated massive losses for the first many years of their existence, but are both highly profitable today. Developing and maturing commercial aircraft is a long and really expensive process, and it would practically be impossible to start up a production of modern commercial airliners from scratch without significant amounts of subsidiaries. By the looks of it, China is trying to shorten this process by pushing out as many C919s as possible to their own Chinese airlines. They are essentially trying to take the losses right here and now, instead of stretching them out over a 20 year period.ADent wrote:Neither of the planes have or will likely ever get FAA certification (esp the ARJ). So no sales to the worlds major carriers.
The C919 will most likely get EASA certification, which is just as good or even better.ADent wrote:But the 737 and A320 lines are very efficient machines and I bet the Chinese can not undercut by a huge amount.
The 737 is ancient, and the A320 is getting up in the years too. Undercutting them isn't going to take much of an effort, and China has a reputation for having some very skilled aircraft designers. Besides, most of the efficiencies lie in the engines, and the C919 will feature the same engines as those other two.
Most analyses I have seen, indicate that the C919 is not quite so ambitious, and will only just match or slightly exceed the performance of the 737MAX and A320NEO. The MC-21 however will be superior to all of them by quite a bit.
intothinair wrote:I have heard the same. Once the plane is FAA and EASA certified it will take a major chunk of the orders from Airbus and Boeing as it is not only more efficient, but also cheaper. Wouldnt be surprised to see a major order from Air Asia, Ryanair, Easyjet or even legacy carriers like LH. BA have already expressed an interest in the C919! If they get the C929 right (which they will) we could eventually see Comac's annual orders overtaking that of Airbus and Boeing!
intothinair wrote:BA have already expressed an interest in the C919!
intothinair wrote:I have heard the same. Once the plane is FAA and EASA certified it will take a major chunk of the orders from Airbus and Boeing as it is not only more efficient, but also cheaper. Wouldnt be surprised to see a major order from Air Asia, Ryanair, Easyjet or even legacy carriers like LH.
intothinair wrote:BA have already expressed an interest in the C919! If they get the C929 right (which they will) we could eventually see Comac's annual orders overtaking that of Airbus and Boeing!
DigitalSea wrote:How will innovation in China stay competitive with innovation from western countries down the road?