dfwjim1
Topic Author
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Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 12:28 am

On August 8th, 2017 the Dallas Business Journal published an article about the many international routes that DFW has added over the past few years. Within the article Waco, Texas based Perryman Group stated that each new international flight to/from DFW adds an estimated $250 million annually to the DFW economy whether the flight is to Canada or Japan. I am finding it very hard to believe that one flight could have an economic impact of $250 million on a local economy but I am not in the airline/airport business.

Any comments as to whether the Perryman Group's numbers are correct or not would be greatly appreciated. As a side note, I was unable to post the article.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:38 pm

200 people flying for $1000 fare 365 days a year comes to $73million. That gets divided to at least two airports, cities, countries, and other entities. Adding ground transportation and other things ... it is a long way from a quarter of a billion. Did Perryman Group offer any breakdown of that large figure. It could be that one international flight correlates with, not causes, that much regional economy.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:07 pm

Another gross statistic which may shed some light on this: Seattle metro area has a gross development income of about $315 billion. I could not find the number of international flights a day (and don't want to count) but suspect that it is somewhere between 50-100, and that includes a number of other North American destinations.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
WIederling
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Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:00 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
200 people flying for $1000 fare 365 days a year comes to $73million.


is it per flight or "per relation".

if you go "per relation" you will have twice the throughput.
Murphy is an optimist
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:40 pm

WIederling wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
200 people flying for $1000 fare 365 days a year comes to $73million.


is it per flight or "per relation".

if you go "per relation" you will have twice the throughput.


My very rough model assumes that $1000 is for a roundtrip. The model points out that things come pretty short of a quarter of a billion.

The second model, also rough, correlates to a few billion per international flight.

I hope the OP posts just what the Perryman Group was including in its economic figures. I will assume they were not merely inventing, but had some particular insights as to aviation and local economies.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
dfwjim1
Topic Author
Posts: 1534
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Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:45 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
WIederling wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
200 people flying for $1000 fare 365 days a year comes to $73million.


is it per flight or "per relation".

if you go "per relation" you will have twice the throughput.


My very rough model assumes that $1000 is for a roundtrip. The model points out that things come pretty short of a quarter of a billion.

The second model, also rough, correlates to a few billion per international flight.

I hope the OP posts just what the Perryman Group was including in its economic figures. I will assume they were not merely inventing, but had some particular insights as to aviation and local economies.


Unfortunately there were not any details given as to how the Perryman Group came up with the $250M figure for each route especially since they lumped in both long and short distance international flights.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 1518
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:09 pm

One worry with metrics without details is that, indeed, they are inventing. Any number on industries come up with environmentally questionable projects, and justify them with totally unrealistic high employment figures. On the other hand, an international flight is not all that significant in its environmental impact.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
WYLTK
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Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:44 am

Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:49 pm

Read
to the DFW economy


This includes more than simply the fare.

Using data from http://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/d ... s_2014.pdf which was compiled in 2014 we know that:

$220.8 billion was spent by international tourists and that there were 75.0 million international tourists in total. That works out to $2944 in average revenue per tourist. Using the hypothetical 200 passenger a day capacity, that works out to $2994*200*365 == $214,912,000. Granted, not every passenger that lands at DFW would spend their money there (many would connect elsewhere, etc) but taking into account inflation and increases in tourism in general, the $250M figure isn't exactly outside the realm of possibilities.

Optimistic? Yes. Impossible? No.
 
mcg
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Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:49 am

Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:44 pm

And many of those big spending tourists would have found their way to North Texas without a non-stop flight, they would have been happy to connect somewhere up the line. The $250 mm number is hogwash designed to justify somebody's agenda.
 
dfwjim1
Topic Author
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Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:46 pm

Re: Each new international route at DFW generates $250M annually?

Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:29 am

mcg wrote:
And many of those big spending tourists would have found their way to North Texas without a non-stop flight, they would have been happy to connect somewhere up the line. The $250 mm number is hogwash designed to justify somebody's agenda.


I did a calculation and based on the $250M figure per flight per year, the NRT - DFW JAL flight, for example, would contribute $684,000 ($250M \ 365 flights per year) daily to the DFW economy which seems silly especially since many of the passengers on that flight connect through DFW to other points. It's even more silly when the $250M is used for routes from Mexico and Canada.

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