Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 296
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:44 pm

I've been looking at the fares ex-Japan for the golden week for the past 6 months.

Economy class fares for April 27th-May 4th return to
-Asia start from around 1000 USD return
-U.S. start around 2500 USD return
-Europe start around 3000 USD return.


The fares are sky high, except 9W popping up here and there with normal fares (but almost bankrupt so unlikely to honor).
AY are operating 3 flights 30 minutes apart for the period.

I understand the peek of demand, but surely there is a problem here?
The market is totally out of balance.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 667
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:53 pm

And I'll bet they are already sold out on many of the fares - even on the extra sections. High demand = rising prices, and in an off season low demand = lower prices or loss of the flight completely.

On most economic issues, I'm a virulent anti-vulture capitalist/anti-monopoly middle of the road guy, but for situations such as this, I'm as greedy a capitalist pig as there is - this is the time of peak demand, and the chance to make more money reigns supreme.

None of us like paying more for the same thing, but in the transportation market, this is the way things work.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 9185
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:05 pm

If the market is out of balance nobody would buy the fares and prices will be lower soon.
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 1979
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:07 pm

Happens every year. Three days before or after Golden Week, normal fares and availability, esp. HND/HNL and NRT/HNL.
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 296
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:29 pm

Polot wrote:
If the market is out of balance nobody would buy the fares and prices will be lower soon.


That's one way it works, but usually increased demand is also an opportunity for increased capacity.
Japanese companies do not allow employees to take more than 5 work days off in a row more than once a year, at a time convenient for both employee and employer.

The special golden week this year provides the opportunity to have a second such week and naturally many people are willing to spend more to fly out and explore.

There are many ways for airlines to maximise profits.
Usually, an abrupt increase in demand goes paired with an increase in capacity and not only the fares, but I'm not seeing this except from AY.
Fares are now 400% what they normally are.

Why aren't charter companies jumping on this?
Why haven't the Japanese duopoly carriers chartered in capacity to maximise profits?

In my opinion, the Japanese government is complicit as they are dealing with a youth exodus and true population crisis.
The government must see trips to foreign counties as catalysers for emmigration as young Japanese discover new opportunities thanks in part to a vanishing language barrier courtesy of standard English education in Japanese schools. In my surroundings, in the past year alone, I know of young Japanese leaving Japan for Australia, Portugal and Canada, motivated mainly by the search for a more relaxed labour and general living environment.
 
User avatar
janders
Posts: 781
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:27 pm

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:36 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I understand the peek of demand, but surely there is a problem here?
The market is totally out of balance.


Actually seems like its operating exactly as it should !
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3378
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:41 pm

I mean, none of this is really new. And you're talking about airlines "jumping" on things for one week. That's a big logistical commitment for not much payoff.

You know, international airlines could be "jumping" on it too, if there's really a lack of capacity. The fact is US airlines have had to *cut* capacity to Japan over the last decade.

Not everything's a conspiracy.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 296
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:06 pm

spacecadet wrote:
I mean, none of this is really new. And you're talking about airlines "jumping" on things for one week. That's a big logistical commitment for not much payoff.

You know, international airlines could be "jumping" on it too, if there's really a lack of capacity. The fact is US airlines have had to *cut* capacity to Japan over the last decade.

Not everything's a conspiracy.


I disagree.
What would it cost AF/KL, LH group to take a few aircraft or larger aircraft/A380's off other routes and operate additional flights for the week?
It seems that there is much obsession about unit yields and the airlines are losing the big picture, missing opportunities here and there.

An all-Y A380 would achieve. a 1+ Million USD revenue per flight during these days.
8 flights and your lease for half the year is paid.

Is there really no conspiracy? Or a perfect example of where point-to-point smaller narrowbodies are taking the market?
I.e. an untenable situation where capacity is adjusted to non-peak situations and peaks are to be absorbed by the travelling public through even higher fares?
 
User avatar
jaybird
Posts: 338
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2001 4:23 am

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:18 pm

"Surely there is a problem here." There's no problem here - it's an annual event. Hawaii virtually sells out every year during Golden Weeks. It's been an annual event since 1951 (I think).
 
leftcoast8
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:59 am

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:25 am

GW this year is expanded due to Akihito stepping down as Emperor. The last day of super GW is May 6, the day of Naruhito's accession.

Two observations:

1. I expect the Shinkansen network will also be jam packed. 25 years ago you'd have domestic 747s flying to CTS, NGO, OKA, OSA (ITM), FUK, but now with the expanded Shinkansen network (Nozomi since 1992, faster 500/700/N700/N700S series trains, JR Central's service expansion in 2003 to compete with air travel, plus Kyushu + Hokuriku extension + Hokkaido Shinkansen from 2004-2016), trains are the way are the main way to get around Japan except for the longest routes like Tokyo-Sapporo/Hakodate, Tokyo-Kyushu, to Okinawa, etc.
2. I wonder how much revenue will be generated by this super GW. Is it comparable to the travel/restaurant spending in China during the Chinese New Year period?

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In my surroundings, in the past year alone, I know of young Japanese leaving Japan for Australia, Portugal and Canada, motivated mainly by the search for a more relaxed labour and general living environment.


I've heard quite the opposite. Ever since the property bubble burst in Japan in 1989, travel abroad has plummeted. The idea of leaving their safe and secure bubble to visit an unknown country is often met with sayings of 海外怖いね. ("Overseas countries are scary, aren't they?") And the majority of travel abroad from Japan is limited to Honolulu or Guam, or otherwise in prearranged tour groups organized by domestic agencies like H.I.S.--self guided tourism or backpacking on your own like what western travellers do is unheard of. It doesn't help that Japan has some of the lowest English proficiency in the OECD. There are all-Japanese ethnic enclaves in Hawaii and Guam where one can speak Japanese and not a lick of English; pre-organized packages also limit the amount of English needed.

Off-topic tangent that I didn't want to include in the post (it's on a pastebin service): https://hastebin.com/raw/xeviluzuta
 
geoshina
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:18 pm

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:04 am

You would be amazed by the amount of young japanese people that come to Brazil. Either alone or because he/she has a relative that lives in Brazil. Most of them take a year or two off to come teach "nihongo" in かいかん or "kaikan" (japanese club) scattered throughout the brazilian states that have a huge japanese immigration (mostly São Paulo and Paraná). Clearly these young "nihondin" are not the ones you will find in Tokyo.
I also remember back in the 90's that a lot of young japanese men would come to cities in these states and would be part of the soccer team. They would stay for 6 months to a year with help of the japanese club.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2438
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:40 am

leftcoast8 wrote:
I've heard quite the opposite. Ever since the property bubble burst in Japan in 1989, travel abroad has plummeted. The idea of leaving their safe and secure bubble to visit an unknown country is often met with sayings of 海外怖いね. ("Overseas countries are scary, aren't they?") And the majority of travel abroad from Japan is limited to Honolulu or Guam, or otherwise in prearranged tour groups organized by domestic agencies like H.I.S.--self guided tourism or backpacking on your own like what western travellers do is unheard of. It doesn't help that Japan has some of the lowest English proficiency in the OECD. There are all-Japanese ethnic enclaves in Hawaii and Guam where one can speak Japanese and not a lick of English; pre-organized packages also limit the amount of English needed.


Indeed...just saw this Japanese article. Basically it talks about how the under-20 in Japan barely travel outside Japan, main reason being "safety", "language barrier", and of course, money.
https://www.asahi.com/and_travel/20190411/75028/

On the other hand, for this Golden Week, outbound travel from Japan is increasing:
http://www.newsclip.be/article/2019/04/05/39376.html

Japanese do travel to places like Thailand, China/Taiwan/HK, and South Korea also. But yes, compare to South Korean, the outbound travel amount is definitely a joke.

BTW, South Korean has overtook Japanese as the main tourists for awhile in Guam.

geoshina wrote:
You would be amazed by the amount of young japanese people that come to Brazil. Either alone or because he/she has a relative that lives in Brazil. Most of them take a year or two off to come teach "nihongo" in かいかん or "kaikan" (japanese club) scattered throughout the brazilian states that have a huge japanese immigration (mostly São Paulo and Paraná). Clearly these young "nihondin" are not the ones you will find in Tokyo.


But aren't those mainly Nisei or Sansei immigrants? i.e. ethnic Japanese youth that left Brazil for Japan, only to go back to Brazil?

P.S. As for the OP - it's seriously no difference than Thanksgiving travel in US or Chunyun in China. The fact that this is one of those rare "Super Golden Week" mean even more Japanese are going to travel.

It's also one of the few periods where Tokyo is actually not crowded, though, so there's that.
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 296
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:25 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
leftcoast8 wrote:
I've heard quite the opposite. Ever since the property bubble burst in Japan in 1989, travel abroad has plummeted. The idea of leaving their safe and secure bubble to visit an unknown country is often met with sayings of 海外怖いね. ("Overseas countries are scary, aren't they?") And the majority of travel abroad from Japan is limited to Honolulu or Guam, or otherwise in prearranged tour groups organized by domestic agencies like H.I.S.--self guided tourism or backpacking on your own like what western travellers do is unheard of. It doesn't help that Japan has some of the lowest English proficiency in the OECD. There are all-Japanese ethnic enclaves in Hawaii and Guam where one can speak Japanese and not a lick of English; pre-organized packages also limit the amount of English needed.


Indeed...just saw this Japanese article. Basically it talks about how the under-20 in Japan barely travel outside Japan, main reason being "safety", "language barrier", and of course, money.
https://www.asahi.com/and_travel/20190411/75028/

On the other hand, for this Golden Week, outbound travel from Japan is increasing:
http://www.newsclip.be/article/2019/04/05/39376.html

Japanese do travel to places like Thailand, China/Taiwan/HK, and South Korea also. But yes, compare to South Korean, the outbound travel amount is definitely a joke.

BTW, South Korean has overtook Japanese as the main tourists for awhile in Guam.

geoshina wrote:
You would be amazed by the amount of young japanese people that come to Brazil. Either alone or because he/she has a relative that lives in Brazil. Most of them take a year or two off to come teach "nihongo" in かいかん or "kaikan" (japanese club) scattered throughout the brazilian states that have a huge japanese immigration (mostly São Paulo and Paraná). Clearly these young "nihondin" are not the ones you will find in Tokyo.


But aren't those mainly Nisei or Sansei immigrants? i.e. ethnic Japanese youth that left Brazil for Japan, only to go back to Brazil?

P.S. As for the OP - it's seriously no difference than Thanksgiving travel in US or Chunyun in China. The fact that this is one of those rare "Super Golden Week" mean even more Japanese are going to travel.

It's also one of the few periods where Tokyo is actually not crowded, though, so there's that.


Hotel prices in Tokyo are through the roof for the golden week.
The trains may not be packed during rush hour but anything leisure-related will be crowded for sure.

Every month, a boatload of Japanese are leaving Japan for greener pastures according to statistics, but I think that it much much worse than that.
The government is downplaying the emigration but it is real and picking up pace. Japanese are seeing young people leaving right and left. It's taking the proportions of an exodus, hence Japan's unimaginable policy change with regards to immigration.
In a recent survey, emigration was mentionned as the Japanese's main concern.

Besides strict company etiquettes, poor employment conditions, never-ending overtime, low starting salaries decoupled from inflation, overcrowded commuting, are making more and more Japanese look at alternatives abroad.


About the current fares, we are talking over 2 months worth of salary for people with a normal income.
That is not normal at all even for a busy period.
In comparison, a ticket in the other direction costs just 600 USD, ie 80% less.
 
geoshina
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:18 pm

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:57 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
But aren't those mainly Nisei or Sansei immigrants? i.e. ethnic Japanese youth that left Brazil for Japan, only to go back to Brazil?


Nope, they are really japanese citizens, born and raised in Japan. Some with brazilians relatives, some with none . That's why I find it funny the assertion that japanese people don't travel a lot because I have always seem them in my city.
 
mdavies06
Posts: 520
Joined: Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:28 pm

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:16 am

The phenomenon posted at the starting thread is nothing out of the extraordinary. In fact fares like those you posted above are everyday fares in part of the summer season too. Mind you airlines do not make money during this period in first and business class due to the drop off in business travel, but on the whole most airlines make more than they normally do.
 
melpax
Posts: 1881
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:05 pm

Sounds no different from what happens here in Australia over the Christmas/New Year period, and to a lesser extent, the state school holiday periods during the year. Try booking a flight from MEL/SYD to Europe, the US, Thailand or Bali from the last week of December to Mid January & see how much you'll be paying! One of the worst cases I heard was a return DRW-MEL flight over Christmas being around the 2K mark!

I remember the initial influx of Japanese tourists to Australia in the early 80's. Virtually all of them were in tour groups, you didn't see the Japanese travel independently. They also travelled on tight schedules, there was some consternation among some locals when Japanese signage started appearing at tourist spots such as the Penguin Parade on Phillip Island, and outside the Duty Free shops in Downtown Melbourne - there were still a lot of WW2 vets alive, quite a number of whom were Japanese POW's.

Of course the numbers of Japanese visitors were much less after 1990 or so. Daimaru opened a store in Melbourne in 1991, at massive expense, complete with designated bilingual staff to assist the expected massive amount of Japanese tourists. Problem was that those tourists never came in the numbers expected, it was in the middle of a brutal recession, and Daimaru closed up in 2002 after massive losses. A shame, as they stocked a much better range of clothes than Myers & DJ's at the time & their food hall...... If they decided to stick it out for another few years, they'd probably still be around.
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 1979
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Insane fares Ex-Japan for golden week

Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:24 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Indeed...just saw this Japanese article. Basically it talks about how the under-20 in Japan barely travel outside Japan, main reason being "safety", "language barrier", and of course, money.
https://www.asahi.com/and_travel/20190411/75028/


From the article, via Chrome: "Overseas travel programs are planned such as exchange with local university students, visits to Japanese schools and companies, cultural and sports experience exchanges, volunteers, and courtesy visits to foreign delegations."

Exactly what a 20 y/o would want to do. [/humour]

I know nihonjin who have visited Hawaii over 60 times, including one woman who came for "dental work", "physical therapy", etc., staying 3 months each time, with a month in Japan between each visit, and did this for years. She was eventually denied entry at HNL. Haven't seen her in Honolulu since.

As for "independent travel", if you visit Haleiwa shopping center on Oahu, you'll often see single Japanese men sleeping in their cars during the day ... running the engine for the airconditioning. A nuisance.

My point: Japanese with money will spend it freely on trips to Hawaii, including buying condos that are only occupied during New Years and Golden Week.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider], DaProf, zakuivcustom and 22 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos