A couple of years ago there were only new routes and hardly any cancelation of a stablished route.
Now, when logging into the forum or airlineroute, there are as many cancelled routes as new ones. In the last few months this shift has been quite incredible.
Are we already in a turning point of consolidation of routes/carriers and we can only expect more and more routes being chopped?
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Re: Are we in a turning point in new air routes?
I think cancelation, optimilisation and establishing new routes is something from all years. Just because we get the news from all over the world centralised in one handy spot makes it look that way.
Re: Are we in a turning point in new air routes?
There's also been a rapid growth in the ULCC space and they seem more willing to cut underperforming routes than more conservative airlines.
Re: Are we in a turning point in new air routes?
I think there has also been a change of philosophy in the executive suites when it comes to route planning. The days of flying routes simply for prestige factors--747s between hubs, world's longest, serving all 50 states, etc--are gone. If a route isn't providing acceptable financial returns, either on its own or by supporting other flights in the network, it will be cut and the plane reassigned somewhere it can make more money.
There have also been lots of advances in technology and scheduling software that make it easier for airlines to offer less-than-daily service in markets or change aircraft type from day to day, which has allowed them to experiment with new routes in a way they couldn't previously.
There have also been lots of advances in technology and scheduling software that make it easier for airlines to offer less-than-daily service in markets or change aircraft type from day to day, which has allowed them to experiment with new routes in a way they couldn't previously.
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- PlymSpotter
- Posts: 11063
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Re: Are we in a turning point in new air routes?
What definition are we assigning to 'stabilised route'? I ask because I have worked with airlines who consider the spin up process after launch to last from three months to well over two years.
Re: Are we in a turning point in new air routes?
Looking at the main forum now. Chopped routes/orders:
New routes:
This is purely anecdotical, but just looking at the main forum, there are more and more cancelled routes, involving major legacy carriers. IMO we have gone through a turning point, which was the reason for opening this thread.
- Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst
Cobalt Air In Trouble
Ethiopian drop LAX
United ends Hamburg for good
Aeromexico axes MEX-BOS/PDX/IAD + MTY-LAS + GDL-SJC
WW ending STL, CVG, CLE
New routes:
- Ethiopian Airlines to start Oslo-Asmara
Turkish to Start Newark Service
This is purely anecdotical, but just looking at the main forum, there are more and more cancelled routes, involving major legacy carriers. IMO we have gone through a turning point, which was the reason for opening this thread.
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- zakuivcustom
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Re: Are we in a turning point in new air routes?
Except out of all those you listed:
- Etihad had not been doing great financially for awhile. Their expansion plan was always too ambitious anyway.
- Same for WW - their finance is awful
- As for Cobalt Air, Cyprus simply can't sustain a local carrier
- ET is NOT dropping LAX
- UA has reduced HAM from year-round to seasonal previously, only now cancelling it, hardly representing any "turning point"
- Lastly, AM, nothing more than route network adjustment. Between the certain person inWashington Mar-a-Lago and heavy LCC competition, routes are going to get dropped.
BTW you forgot to list TP dropping VGO, LCG, OVD if you really want to go there.
Meanwhile...
BA announced CHS, and previously annouced returning to KIX
Just looking at Routesonline, little things like 7C adding TAE-MFM and TAE-KOJ
And BTW, ET is starting more than ASM-OSL. They're expanding quite a bit from ASM, and just announced returning to Mogadishu.
- Etihad had not been doing great financially for awhile. Their expansion plan was always too ambitious anyway.
- Same for WW - their finance is awful
- As for Cobalt Air, Cyprus simply can't sustain a local carrier
- ET is NOT dropping LAX
- UA has reduced HAM from year-round to seasonal previously, only now cancelling it, hardly representing any "turning point"
- Lastly, AM, nothing more than route network adjustment. Between the certain person in
BTW you forgot to list TP dropping VGO, LCG, OVD if you really want to go there.
Meanwhile...
BA announced CHS, and previously annouced returning to KIX
Just looking at Routesonline, little things like 7C adding TAE-MFM and TAE-KOJ
And BTW, ET is starting more than ASM-OSL. They're expanding quite a bit from ASM, and just announced returning to Mogadishu.
Re: Are we in a turning point in new air routes?
SCQ83 wrote:Looking at the main forum now. Chopped routes/orders:Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst
Cobalt Air In Trouble
Ethiopian drop LAX
United ends Hamburg for good
Aeromexico axes MEX-BOS/PDX/IAD + MTY-LAS + GDL-SJC
WW ending STL, CVG, CLE
New routes:Ethiopian Airlines to start Oslo-Asmara
Turkish to Start Newark Service
This is purely anecdotical, but just looking at the main forum, there are more and more cancelled routes, involving major legacy carriers. IMO we have gone through a turning point, which was the reason for opening this thread.
1. As you noted, purely anecdotal. And a snapshot view of the main forum doesn't take into account that perhaps this week has a lot of cancels but last week has a lot of adds. There's no attempt at actually proving the point - except that this one snapshot sort of, maybe supports your point.
2. An A350 order cancellation is not a route add/drop. If you want to count that, then we also have to look at all the order threads that appear over time.
3. A cancellation often gets it own thread as people flag the "demise" of this carrier or that carrier whereas a lot of route adds are "connecting the dots" and not seen as sexy so they get covered in regional or airline based threads or in the weekly OAG thread.
But...let's put a stop to this with actual data.
I pulled non-US origin, non-US destination, non-domestic O&Ds for the past 5 Octobers from OAG. I then flagged all the added routes and all the dropped routes year-over-year. Here is the ratio of added/dropped routes for the last 5 years:
- October 2018: 1.92 added routes for every dropped route
October 2017: 1.79 added routes for every dropped route
October 2016: 1.17 added routes for every dropped route
October 2015: 1.09 added routes for every dropped route
October 2014: 1.54 added routes for every dropped route
So, October 2018 actually had the most added routes compared to dropped routes. Sure, the numbers vary year-to-year in terms of total adds and total drops, but that's why I calculated a ratio.
Now you might say well this is all backwards looking and your forum thread sample is future looking so I also pulled July 2019 versus July 2018 and found a ratio of 1.41 adds for every dropped route.
So while I could expand the data set to the entire world and include domestic traffic and include years and years of data, I don't have the time and I now consider the myth more even dead than it already was.
Re: Are we in a turning point in new air routes?
zakuivcustom wrote:BTW you forgot to list TP dropping VGO, LCG, OVD if you really want to go there.
I didn't mean that, but that is a favourite of mine
On the other hand now in the main forum it is being discussed Air Belgium and FlyBe on the verge of liquidation.
It seems (at least in Europe) there is always a logical trend in any economic cycle. When the economy picks up, carriers launch new routes which means relatively niche routes get now quite a lot of competition. They need to be creative starting really odd/thin routes. When oil prices go up, that means that some of those odd routes are unsustainable. Smaller carriers (Primera, FlyBe) cannot compete with big players like easyJet or Ryanair and they go under.
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