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Taxi645
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:16 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
$3 billion wouldn’t come close—double that, at least.

GF


If I do some rough math, based on A330 NEO and 777x updates, I would come to between $3,5-4,3 billion for Matt's 900 proposal (that excludes rear bulkhead redesign),

My 505T MTOW 850 (75m), proposal I would get to between $6,3-6,8 billion.


Either proposal has it's advantages and drawbacks as always:


900

Advantages:
- Saves the expense of a new wing
- Saves the expense of the redesign part of the MLG (bay) and cargo hold area.
- Thus lower investment.
- More fuselage efficiency gained by means of a larger revenue providing length of the fuselage
- Size independent costs reduce more per seat mile.


Drawbacks:
- Induced drag inefficiencies considerable less addressed, not very competitive
- Less opportunity to share engines with A330 replacement (due to thrust requirement)
- MTOW related cost reduced less.
- Larger plane to get filled
- Larger peak passenger flow at airport


850

Advantages:
- Induced drag levels reduced to somewhat competitive levels
- Much more weight saving potential, because of wing area, wing composites, MLG savings (4-wheel bogey) engine weight etc.
- Reduced MLG size and reconfiguration helps to save cargo space
- Engines can be shared with A330 replacement (similar thrust requirement).
- Easier to fit required ultrafan like bypass ratios under it's wings.
- Engine integration and rewing R&D efficiency gains.
- MTOW related costs much more reduced.
- Wake turbulence spacing strongly reduced.
- Less plane to fill.

Drawbacks:
- Hugh investment
Last edited by Taxi645 on Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Noshow
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:30 am

IF the A380 should be modernized with new engines and a new wing one day, it would make sense to size it for possible stretches to justify the investment. Like it was done with the A380-800 wing back then. In the future it will be the only big aircraft for some time.

Looking at growth in India and China I'd say very big aircraft are not unneeded. Plus their airports are ready for it today. Why they don't use more VLAs even today I don't understand. Just look at Beijing. Take less A321 and more A380 and the congestion is gone in a moment and you got slots again.
 
LLA001
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:31 am

I love quads, I wish we had more quads on the air, even if they don't need 3rd and 4th engine, I wish they placed dummy engines just for aesthetic reasons ( just like the 4th funnel on Titanic )

Yet, twin engines and probably at the end of the century single engines will be the dominant type in the future ( yep with AI pilots).

About A380 getting bigger, well everyone is commenting on tougher border regulations and that means longer and longer lines at customs due to tighter controls by immigration officers. This means if more people come at the same time there will be a lot more congestion at customs so I am kind of happy that aircraft are not getting bigger. You can argue instead of big aircraft there are more smaller size aircraft flying to same destination, true but at least even a 15 minute pace between landing aircraft can make a difference at lines.

Oh, in the future, if there are big airports and with more automated and easy pass custom controls then yeah I am all for big aircraft, and hopefully quads.
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:28 am

Return on capital employed.Hard to know exactly what Airbus' next big investment will be.
Probably depends on B's MOM -or not.We can see potential small investments that will yield a return such as the 321XLR new integrated belly fuel tank.
If they win the Sunrise competition then something similar for the 350-1000.They have already pitched their (final?) A380 improvement package.The 'Plus'.
It's possible (sadly) that the new long range 338NEO will not gain traction.If in a 18 months that is the case ( and mom has been launched)then one might well see a 'launch' of a WB mid sized mid ranged aircraft at Farnbrough 2020.Thats where my bet would go for the next major aircraft investment.

Note:
In terms of a next gen VLA -There already (effectively) is one!Indeed Singapore Air actively asked for it and it would not surprise me at all if BA do too .It is of course the 777-10X. This a/c is 744/8 sized in capacity and has exactly the technology that so many here are asking for.A truly massive twin with absolutly state of the art wings and engines that can operate from existing airport infrastructure.Why look any further?
Imho the key to launching it will be Emirates.
They have already openly stated that load factors are coming under pressure from non stops and clearly will continue to do so.There short term responses have been (will be) to introduce a premium class across the fleet starting in 2020 and the introduction of smaller more flexible aircaft.For the moment they are sticking with the A380 as their core aircaft but if load factors and margins continue to come under pressure then eventually they will be forced to consider the 777-10.It would surely be the most efficient people mover on the planet.
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:11 pm

Twin or quad it would support the point that there is a need for VLAs. The only real A380s issue is it has older, slightly less efficient engines than the most modern current twins. With the same engine generation the bigger size will be cheaper to operate again. And it can be filled even today, that was my point.
 
2175301
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:34 pm

Noshow wrote:
Twin or quad it would support the point that there is a need for VLAs. The only real A380s issue is it has older, slightly less efficient engines than the most modern current twins. With the same engine generation the bigger size will be cheaper to operate again. And it can be filled even today, that was my point.


The market has made it very clear that there is only a limited market for an aircraft the size of the A380 or larger at this time and for the foreseeable future. All the theories I see proposed on why it will be larger are the same ones proposed when the A380 launched - and proved to be not true.

I stand by my previous statement that there might be a replacement market of about the size of the current fleet... and that is all that I see. In my opinion not worth developing even an optimized A380 for. They cannot even build the ones they are building now at break even on production cost. They would need to decrease production cost or increase sale price on the order of 100 million per aircraft in order to even talk about it. That idea is financially dead on arrival. If you think otherwise please identify the investors who are seriously going to commit the money to such an endeavor.

Have a great day,
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:57 pm

2175301 wrote:
The market has made it very clear that there is only a limited market for an aircraft the size of the A380 or larger at this time and for the foreseeable future.


The market has made very clear that there is only a limited market for the A380 as is. A plane that has no CASM advantage over it's nearest and smaller competitor the 777-300ER because of design choices made by Airbus. Why would anyone except for EK buy it if you can use a smaller plane with less risk and more flexibility to do the same job?

Anyone willing to spend a grain of imagination and do some rough calculations will admit that is not neccessarily the same for an A380NEO vs the 777x. With an A380NEO there would be a significant CASM gap. The question is just if the gap would be large enough to justify the investment.
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m66
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:06 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
It would be the after of the one of the following optional
A. BER main terminal opening
B. AI privatisation success
C. Air Koryo start flight to USA
D. Ragnarök
E. the Son of Man's return
F. The day of Qiyamah
G. The coming of Maitreya


H. The restart of a defunct airline actually being successful
I. 747-8I receiving more orders
J. Tri-jets coming back
K. Reopening of the 757 production line
:duck:


L. How long will Northwest keep their DC-9 flying .... oh, no - that one actually disappeared from airliners.net.
 
Noshow
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:14 pm

Only some years ago we had predictions from both manufacturers that there is a market for VLAs. Both developed models for it.
Why should that need have totally evaporated?
I agree after 9-11 and the financial crisis airlines procured their fleets more cautious, leasing mainstream models became more typical and the practical sales of VLAs seem in fact were very low. That might change as the aviation market grew again and keeps growing.
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:48 am

Agree with many of the above thoughts - CASM is key. Get this right and EK will buy and be able to fill it, with small orders from others.

But it will always be a small number aircraft so minimising cost of development is critical.

First thing is engines. Much of the current defecit comes from a 2 gen old engine and I doubt the current engine manufacturers will be willing to develop a new plant... To fix this any future A380 needs to use stock 330/350 or future derivative engines.

Design the rest around that, the Plus improvements, then lengthen with a similar wing, or revise the wing to fit the current size.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:06 am

No.
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:42 am

moa999 wrote:
First thing is engines. Much of the current defecit comes from a 2 gen old engine and I doubt the current engine manufacturers will be willing to develop a new plant... To fix this any future A380 needs to use stock 330/350 or future derivative engines.

Thing is, the current A380 did not get stock A330 engines at launch and Airbus's Tom Williams told us the TXWB/T7000 was not a good match for the A380.

http://aviationweek.com/singapore-2014/ ... nvolvement tells us:

(Airbus executive vice president of programs Tom) Williams does not see a common new engine for the A330 and A380 as the optimal solution. Concerns include the sizing of the core and overall architecture, as well as weight. “It really does not make much sense,” he believes.

The T1000/T7000/TXWB core is too big, and the engine weigh too much. I think it's too much to ask for one engine to be sized appropriately for a medium twin like A330, a big twin like A350 and a big quad like A380. I think T1000 is designed for 787 but too big/heavy for 747-8i and contributed to the later program's disappointing results.

viewtopic.php?t=602795 makes for some interesting reading:

The decision to go ahead with the A380, which Williams admits “he was part of”, may have been a mistake. The company is breaking even on each one it makes but after multi-billion development costs Williams admits the programme “will never be profitable”. However, he notes the decision more than a decade ago to make the giant jet came at a time when Airbus saw “Boeing making a ton of money on the 747, exchange rates were different, the oil price was different”.

Things have changed at Airbus since the company was set up in the Sixties with backing from European governments to take on US dominance in aerospace, Williams claims. “The days when we did some projects for ego, valour or pride are gone,” he says.

Was the A380 done for these reasons? “I don’t know but it was probably on the cusp,” he says.

IMHO Airbus's chief engineer is telling us that the A380's day has passed and that ego/valour/pride was involved in the launch decision.
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keesje
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:37 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Suggest we have too many a380 threads on the same old topics.

In the military forum there is one thread that covers f35 news. Why not do the same for the 380?



Let's open 1 thread on Boeing and one on Airbus and force everythiong in.. :idea:
Well I don't like those exhaustive all covering hundreds, thousands of posts, various discussion in one thread.
I like the thread title & OP be clear & limited. So nobody has to waste time going through lots of irrelevant stuff.

For the A380-900, it was included in the base design long ago. Many A380 have high load factors & the business in growing 5% per year on slot restricted hubs. Draw any conclusion that supports / strenghtens your personal preferences. :wink2:

I think an upgrade would have to include a substantial capacity increase / CASM reduction, including next generation engines.

An old study by a well known member that didn't produce a lot of graphics over the last decade.. :scratchchin:

Image
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:01 pm

keesje wrote:
I like the thread title & OP be clear & limited. So nobody has to waste time going through lots of irrelevant stuff.

Given your stated preference, I think it'd be appropriate for you to give a direct response to the OP's question (namely: "Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?") lest your post of other people's older powerpoints fall in to the "irrelevant stuff" category.

Examples of direct responses would be: "yes", "no", "probably", "probably not", as opposed to "draw your own conclusions".

This being a discussion forum, after all.
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:26 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
Anyone willing to spend a grain of imagination and do some rough calculations will admit that is not neccessarily the same for an A380NEO vs the 777x. With an A380NEO there would be a significant CASM gap. The question is just if the gap would be large enough to justify the investment.


The A350 was touted by Airbus to be first frame to best the A380 in CASM ( in a comparable layout, range ... ).
There is a 22..25% delta from 77W to A3510.
A3510 to 779X is a very minor step down ( if any, lets wait for 779X EIS).

There have been tons of printer black spent and bits and bytes tortured on painting the A380 black.
If the frame would really be as uncompetitive as insinuated nobody would bother to talk it down.
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:08 pm

Gasman wrote:
benjjk wrote:
There won't be significant demand for an aircraft larger than the current A380 for at least 20 years. By that point I would expect a fresh design instead of rehashing the 380.

I completely agree.

I believe the A380 assembly line will be wrapped up in 5-10 years. The existing fleet will get smaller by a process of attrition until the next VLA - my guess made by Boeing - enters service in about 20 years from now.



Agreed. This IMO, is by far the most accurate assessment in here. Although I'd say 20 years as an EIS may be a little early. There will be so many advances in this time frame that none of us can really envision what a VLA in 2030 will be. I still feel a Blended-Wing design will be the next VLA.
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Airbus 380-900 or Airbus 380-1000 ?

I know that it's not looking good at the moment, but has Airbus put the plans in the dust bin completly ?


Unlikely. the plane is too big. Making it bigger does not really address its issue.
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:40 pm

The odds of a stretch A380 being built are are about the same as me living to 150 years....... This subject keeps being beat to death. It should be locked by the mods..... :old:
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parapente
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:06 pm

I agree it should really.However since I'm here!
Above we read that the Airbus engineers consider the T7000 wrong for any possible NEO ( that we all know. Won't come - however).The reasoning is that the core is oversized for the requirement -really?
I do understand that any 'cropped fan' engine has an oversized core for the purpose in mind.I also understand that an engine that is too big has therefore an oversized core -like the TXWB hence ( at the time it was considered by Airbus it came with 'half stretch' proposal to 'right size' it).
However this is not the case for the T7000 and other journalists at the time (Leeham for one) stated it would ,in their opinion, be fine.
I appreciate that this is totally academic today but just do not understand his logic re the T7000.Core looks totally right sized to me.

I note the 'abc' site has total orders at 331.ok Emirates are very likely do require a top up or two depending on how things go (rather well at the moment it seems) So perhaps we will see 350-370 made?At the present manufacturing rate that will last a while.!Then it's over imho.
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:58 pm

parapente wrote:
I agree it should really.However since I'm here!
Above we read that the Airbus engineers consider the T7000 wrong for any possible NEO ( that we all know. Won't come - however).The reasoning is that the core is oversized for the requirement -really?
I do understand that any 'cropped fan' engine has an oversized core for the purpose in mind.I also understand that an engine that is too big has therefore an oversized core -like the TXWB hence ( at the time it was considered by Airbus it came with 'half stretch' proposal to 'right size' it).
However this is not the case for the T7000 and other journalists at the time (Leeham for one) stated it would ,in their opinion, be fine.
I appreciate that this is totally academic today but just do not understand his logic re the T7000.Core looks totally right sized to me.

I note the 'abc' site has total orders at 331.ok Emirates are very likely do require a top up or two depending on how things go (rather well at the moment it seems) So perhaps we will see 350-370 made?At the present manufacturing rate that will last a while.!Then it's over imho.

I presumed the issue was that engine out requirements mean that big twin engines are over-provisioned for quad applications, but never did the math. I just trusted Tom Williams when he said the TXWB engines did not make much sense for an A380 application with the suggestion that the issue was the sizing of the core and overall architecture as well as weight really meaning that a quad could afford a lighter engine and really needed one to be as efficient as a twin. I presume T900/GP7200 knew they were being targeted at quads all along so they had such properties. I also presume we all know high performance engines keep getting heavier year by year, and trade offs that worked in the late 90s / early 00s (never mind the earlier times when the same engines migrated from 747 to 767 and back routinely) work less well in the late 10s / early 20s.
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:30 pm

No. We won't see an A380 Stretch unless EK asks for it, but I doubt they will. And I don't see who else would be interested.
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Taxi645
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:16 pm

WIederling wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
Anyone willing to spend a grain of imagination and do some rough calculations will admit that is not neccessarily the same for an A380NEO vs the 777x. With an A380NEO there would be a significant CASM gap. The question is just if the gap would be large enough to justify the investment.


The A350 was touted by Airbus to be first frame to best the A380 in CASM ( in a comparable layout, range ... ).
There is a 22..25% delta from 77W to A3510.
A3510 to 779X is a very minor step down ( if any, lets wait for 779X EIS).

There have been tons of printer black spent and bits and bytes tortured on painting the A380 black.
If the frame would really be as uncompetitive as insinuated nobody would bother to talk it down.


I once made the below table based on the Leeham article. It’s gives the A380 an 1% CASM advantage over the 777W based on equal seating densities. Perhaps the gap is slightly bigger, but it doesn’t matter that much because the NEO calculation are based upon it so the delta remains the same. It shows that the gap between the A380NEO and the 777x is 15% bigger than between the A380CEO and the 777W. That’s with rather conservative calculations on my side. In my book that is enough of a difference to change the outcome and create a sufficiently large niche for the A380NEO. It’s just that the investment is very large if you want to keep the size smaller and give it a new wing and MLG (bay) redesign.


Image


Revelation wrote:
moa999 wrote:
First thing is engines. Much of the current defecit comes from a 2 gen old engine and I doubt the current engine manufacturers will be willing to develop a new plant... To fix this any future A380 needs to use stock 330/350 or future derivative engines.

Thing is, the current A380 did not get stock A330 engines at launch and Airbus's Tom Williams told us the TXWB/T7000 was not a good match for the A380.



The A330 replacement will probably a ~205T MTOW widebody to give it the range (early A330 range) and capacity needed to sit at the upper end of the MoM nicely between an A321XLR capability plane and the A350-900. The required thrust range for that plane will be very close to a 505T MTOW A380NEO.
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smartplane
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:29 pm

If GE or RR won't come to the party on the current conditional EK A380 order, then a 'plus', stretch, NEO, or even just future CEO top up orders look unlikely.

Flight crew shortages, airport and airway capacity, and especially CORSIA may give some impetus for new orders. If anti-competitive legislation is relaxed, identified by the UN as an impediment to reducing carbon emissions, then we may see less frequency and larger, multi-branded aircraft.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:56 am

Taxi645 wrote:
I once made the below table based on the Leeham article.


Your table kills your thesis: putting a new wing on and/or stretching the A380 for 11% per-seat fuel burn advantage over 777-9 would be futile. Nearly as misguided as the original A380 launch decision.

You're projecting ~35% greater trip fuel burn for ~53% greater capacity. That means only a third of your extra pax "fly free" from a fuel perspective.
The other economic variables would be broadly in line with fuel.
This 2/3 marginal capacity cost ("MCC") ratio is insufficient vs. 777-9 to make an A380NEO broadly attractive, let alone when its MCC is measured against A359/B789.
Successful capacity escalations require more like 50% MCC (e.g. B789 vs. 788) - though the threshold figure might be even lower at VLA scale.

That's the bad news for A380 fans. They tend to underestimate the economic efficiencies necessary for up-gauging - though the relative lackluster sales of A35K and 779 should provide further non-A380 evidence of this dynamic.

The good news is that Taxi645's performance projections for a rewinged and/or stretched/wingletted/re-empennaged A380 are far too conservative.
Any version of the A380 that tweaks the wing and empennage along with engines should be far more efficient than he projects; he simply lacks the knowledge to make these projections.
Here's the simple reality: The A380's 2-deck fuse creates 40% less drag per-pax than 777's. You can do a lot to screw up that design and still have a great product (you just can't do as many screw-ups as early-2000's Airbus).

Whether such a future version is economically viable depends on the technical details of how much the wing can be tweaked or how expensive/feasible to rebuild.
If Airbus can use winglets to achieve a 290ft+ effective span then a stretch and NEO is a good future product - as current management states.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:08 am

Keesje wrote:
An old study by a well known member that didn't produce a lot of graphics over the last decade.. :scratchchin:

Image


No idea what the linked image was supposed to be, but this is funny: the primacy of image graphic-generation in Keesje's imagination of the viability of aero/structural ideas. Very fitting for him.
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:33 am

No.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:18 am

I doubt we will. That's not to say that there won't ever be a demand for an airplane that big, it's just that when that demand does roll around, the airplane to fill that niche probably won't be an A380. The airplane to fill that niche hasn't even been dreamed up yet.
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Taxi645
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:16 am

Matt6461 wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
I once made the below table based on the Leeham article.


Your table kills your thesis: putting a new wing on and/or stretching the A380 for 11% per-seat fuel burn advantage over 777-9 would be futile. Nearly as misguided as the original A380 launch decision.


Well -15% for equal seating density and assuming the A380 only has 1% CASM advantage on the 777W at equal density. Yes, as said it's a conservative calculation. As you point out below, it is futile with my knowledge level to try and be more specific, thus I rather stay on the conservative side.


Matt6461 wrote:
The good news is that Taxi645's performance projections for a rewinged and/or stretched/wingletted/re-empennaged A380 are far too conservative.
Any version of the A380 that tweaks the wing and empennage along with engines should be far more efficient than he projects; he simply lacks the knowledge to make these projections.


This is true. I would really wish that Bjorn from Leeham would run an ultrafan NEO, both the 900 with a tweaked old wing as you propose and the 505T MTOW 850 stretch with a new composite wing, through his performance table. Then we could have an informed discussion on the economics and viability of an A380 update instead of the unsubstantiated one-liners; "no", "didn't work for the A380CEO...." etc. that we hear repeated over and over again. However since Leeham pronounced the VLA market dead, the chance of that happening is close to zero I'm afraid. https://leehamnews.com/2018/06/18/vla-era-is-over-are-777x-a350-1000-too-large/

I respect and value your own efforts on that. I reckon an effort from Leeham would add even more credibility to the argument. Something this discussion could use a bit more from.


I will also point out that a compromise is possible where they will get down to the 505T MTOW, but without the MLG bay/cargo hold redesign. You then still have the same (induced) drag reduction from the lower weight and a new composite wing with 15% area reduction. You still can more easily share engines with an A330 replacement. You also still save the ~3.5T from going from a 6-wheel bogey going to a 4-wheel one, just that you don't use that opportunity to reconfigure how it's stored to increase cargo volume which of course is not ideal in a cargo volume limited design like the A380. Yet it would be a hell of a lot cheaper to not having to redesign the MLG bay/cargo hold area.
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:49 am

Taxi645 wrote:
The A330 replacement will probably a ~205T MTOW widebody to give it the range (early A330 range) and capacity needed to sit at the upper end of the MoM nicely between an A321XLR capability plane and the A350-900. The required thrust range for that plane will be very close to a 505T MTOW A380NEO.

The issue is the core will need to be able to 100% of the twin's needs at V1 to handle the engine out scenario, whereas in the quad scenario it will only need to handle 33.3% of the (admittedly much larger) needs of the quad. The engine ends up being built for the bigger market of the twins, the quad ends up with a heavier engine than needed.
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gunnerman
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:07 pm

The lack of a freighter version is an issue. If there is a lesson to be learnt from the 747-8, you need that freighter to keep production going if the passenger version fails to sell well.
 
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American 767
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:29 pm

gunnerman wrote:
The lack of a freighter version is an issue. If there is a lesson to be learnt from the 747-8, you need that freighter to keep production going if the passenger version fails to sell well.


Airbus tried to sell it to major freighter operators, but without success. There was a time when UPS showed interest in it. UPS was thinking of buying it but decided not to so Airbus aborted the A380F project.
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:41 pm

American 767 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The lack of a freighter version is an issue. If there is a lesson to be learnt from the 747-8, you need that freighter to keep production going if the passenger version fails to sell well.


Airbus tried to sell it to major freighter operators, but without success. There was a time when UPS showed interest in it. UPS was thinking of buying it but decided not to so Airbus aborted the A380F project.


For a variety of reasons the 380 did not have enough strengths (pun only partially applicable) to excel as a freighter. Mostly the upper and lowest decks were problematic
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:50 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
American 767 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The lack of a freighter version is an issue. If there is a lesson to be learnt from the 747-8, you need that freighter to keep production going if the passenger version fails to sell well.


Airbus tried to sell it to major freighter operators, but without success. There was a time when UPS showed interest in it. UPS was thinking of buying it but decided not to so Airbus aborted the A380F project.


For a variety of reasons the 380 did not have enough strengths (pun only partially applicable) to excel as a freighter. Mostly the upper and lowest decks were problematic


Also the history above is revisionist - Airbus asked UPS if they could put the freighter on hold so they could sort out the CATIA issues on the passenger version. UPS had orders which they did not intend to cancel (far from "was thinking of buying but decided not to" - metal was already cut on the first wing shipset!), it was Airbus saying they couldn't deliver on time.
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:54 pm

American 767 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The lack of a freighter version is an issue. If there is a lesson to be learnt from the 747-8, you need that freighter to keep production going if the passenger version fails to sell well.

Airbus tried to sell it to major freighter operators, but without success. There was a time when UPS showed interest in it. UPS was thinking of buying it but decided not to so Airbus aborted the A380F project.

The facts are that Airbus had actual A380F orders from FX, UP and EK but development was delayed then halted during the time Airbus was dealing with the aftermath of the CATIA snafu. This gave the customers the opportunity to drop their orders, which they did, in favor of 777F and 747F. In a different universe the CATIA snafu doesn't happen and all three are operating A380Fs right now.
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:38 pm

gunnerman wrote:
If there is a lesson to be learnt from the 747-8, you need that freighter to keep production going if the passenger version fails to sell well.


There's a circular argument here that a considerable portion of the 748's business case may well have been based on it seriously wounding the A380F programme. Obviously the CATIA issue was no help either, but I wouldn't go past suggesting that it was the 748i, and not the F, that was the "well, while we're here..." offering.
 
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keesje
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
American 767 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The lack of a freighter version is an issue. If there is a lesson to be learnt from the 747-8, you need that freighter to keep production going if the passenger version fails to sell well.

Airbus tried to sell it to major freighter operators, but without success. There was a time when UPS showed interest in it. UPS was thinking of buying it but decided not to so Airbus aborted the A380F project.

The facts are that Airbus had actual A380F orders from FX, UP and EK but development was delayed then halted during the time Airbus was dealing with the aftermath of the CATIA snafu. This gave the customers the opportunity to drop their orders, which they did, in favor of 777F and 747F. In a different universe the CATIA snafu doesn't happen and all three are operating A380Fs right now.


Coincidently the GFC hit and overcapacity in the cargo world resulted many 744F being parked / conversions stalling. If those airlines had taken Aw80F's, it probably wouldn't have become pretty..
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
The A330 replacement will probably a ~205T MTOW widebody to give it the range (early A330 range) and capacity needed to sit at the upper end of the MoM nicely between an A321XLR capability plane and the A350-900. The required thrust range for that plane will be very close to a 505T MTOW A380NEO.

The issue is the core will need to be able to 100% of the twin's needs at V1 to handle the engine out scenario, whereas in the quad scenario it will only need to handle 33.3% of the (admittedly much larger) needs of the quad. The engine ends up being built for the bigger market of the twins, the quad ends up with a heavier engine than needed.


That will only be an issue if the actual thrust requirements for the both the twin and the quad will differ too much. Which will depend on the MTOW, induced drag from chosen wingspan and others. I'm pretty sure you haven't given it much more consideration beyond "no won't work". So if you stand by "won't work" I'm am looking forward to your analyses. ;)
Last edited by Taxi645 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Strato2
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:11 pm

As the civil aviation needs to be curtailed due to climate change not expanded there is no need for a plane larger than A350-900 in the future that runs on fossil fuels.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:30 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
The A330 replacement will probably a ~205T MTOW widebody to give it the range (early A330 range) and capacity needed to sit at the upper end of the MoM nicely between an A321XLR capability plane and the A350-900. The required thrust range for that plane will be very close to a 505T MTOW A380NEO.

The issue is the core will need to be able to 100% of the twin's needs at V1 to handle the engine out scenario, whereas in the quad scenario it will only need to handle 33.3% of the (admittedly much larger) needs of the quad. The engine ends up being built for the bigger market of the twins, the quad ends up with a heavier engine than needed.

That will only be an issue if the actual requirements for the both the twin and the quad will differ too much. Which will depend on the MTOW, induced drag from chosen wingspan and others. I'm pretty sure you haven't given it much more consideration beyond "no won't work". So if you stand by "won't work" I'm am looking forward to your analyses. ;)

I'll defer to Airbus's Tom Williams who told us the TXWB/T7000 was not a good match for the A380 ( ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1405139&start=50#p20761497 ) and provided some suggestions as to why. I presume he has access to better tools and information than either of us.
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Taxi645
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The issue is the core will need to be able to 100% of the twin's needs at V1 to handle the engine out scenario, whereas in the quad scenario it will only need to handle 33.3% of the (admittedly much larger) needs of the quad. The engine ends up being built for the bigger market of the twins, the quad ends up with a heavier engine than needed.

That will only be an issue if the actual requirements for the both the twin and the quad will differ too much. Which will depend on the MTOW, induced drag from chosen wingspan and others. I'm pretty sure you haven't given it much more consideration beyond "no won't work". So if you stand by "won't work" I'm am looking forward to your analyses. ;)

I'll defer to Airbus's Tom Williams who told us the TXWB/T7000 was not a good match for the A380 ( ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1405139&start=50#p20761497 ) and provided some suggestions as to why. I presume he has access to better tools and information than either of us.


However I was not talking about the TXWB/T7000, the planes they are used on or the A380CEO. As mister Williams point of view is based on the above it doesn't carry much weight.

What is important is the actual thrust requirement. As said above if they match up or not depends on the design definition of both the twin and the quad.
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2175301
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:49 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
What is important is the actual thrust requirement. As said above if they match up or not depends on the design definition of both the twin and the quad.


That is only part of the equation. However, you are correct for this part of the equation. The other part is that for a low production number aircraft the engine must already exist or be a fairly simple modification of an existing engine. Right now no suitable engine exists for an A380 capacity/size aircraft (even if redesigned with adequate wing clearance for a larger engine).

The A380 is a low production aircraft. Both EA and RR developed engines for it under the assumption that a lot more would sell... I doubt that either company broke even on development cost from engine sales.

At this point I think you would need really solid evidence of a 500 stretched A380's with a potential for up two twice that for anyone to develop a new "sole source" engine for it.

It is my understanding that EA did say that for the existing A380 that they would do a pip for a minor performance improvement with a guarantee order of at least 50 A380 (200 engines + spares).

Please explain why you think anyone would develop the right sized engine to meet the actual thrust requirements... and an explanation that allows the engine maker to recover development cost and make a profit.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:09 am

2175301 wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
What is important is the actual thrust requirement. As said above if they match up or not depends on the design definition of both the twin and the quad.


That is only part of the equation. However, you are correct for this part of the equation. The other part is that for a low production number aircraft the engine must already exist or be a fairly simple modification of an existing engine. Right now no suitable engine exists for an A380 capacity/size aircraft (even if redesigned with adequate wing clearance for a larger engine).

The A380 is a low production aircraft. Both EA and RR developed engines for it under the assumption that a lot more would sell... I doubt that either company broke even on development cost from engine sales.

At this point I think you would need really solid evidence of a 500 stretched A380's with a potential for up two twice that for anyone to develop a new "sole source" engine for it.

It is my understanding that EA did say that for the existing A380 that they would do a pip for a minor performance improvement with a guarantee order of at least 50 A380 (200 engines + spares).

Please explain why you think anyone would develop the right sized engine to meet the actual thrust requirements... and an explanation that allows the engine maker to recover development cost and make a profit.

Have a great day,


I completely agree with your line of thought. No engine maker is likely to develop an engine solely for the a380 knowing it's sales history. However that is the whole reason for the discussion with Revelation. What I'm saying is that Airbus needs to replace the A330 at a certain point. It is fine as a temperal addition to the A350 but in the long term it is too large, has too much range and will become too old tech to sit effectively in between A321xlr type plane and the a350-900. It probably will be replaced by a ~205t widebody with a large wingspan and low induced drag and therefore thrust requirement.

By choosing the right definition for the stretch for the a380NEO Airbus can make sure the thrust requirement for both planes is close enough and then the combined market will be easily 4000 engines. That is something that drastically changes the bussines case from the engine perspective.
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Taxi645
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:44 pm

Personalliy I think Airbus will wait with any A380NEO/stretch deciscion till Boeing has decided on the NMA for two reasons:

1 They will know where Boeing resources (financial, R&D etc.) will be committed too in the relevant period.

2 When knowing the NMA offering they can define the specification and timing of the A330 successor, which engines the A380NEO probably needs to close the bussiness case from an engine perspective.
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bigjku
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:58 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
Personalliy I think Airbus will wait with any A380NEO/stretch deciscion till Boeing has decided on the NMA for two reasons:

1 They will know where Boeing resources (financial, R&D etc.) will be committed too in the relevant period.

2 When knowing the NMA offering they can define the specification and timing of the A330 successor, which engines the A380NEO probably needs to close the bussiness case from an engine perspective.


I don’t see these engines working on an A380 stretch. Assuming MTOW stays the same and you did an equivalent wing makeover to the 77X you likely still need engines in the 787/A330neo class for it.

Doing an A330 replacement with engines for an A380neo makes it end up as basically a 787 doesn’t it?
 
willenglish
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:14 am

Absolutely!
























Not.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:20 am

DocLightning wrote:
I doubt we will. That's not to say that there won't ever be a demand for an airplane that big, it's just that when that demand does roll around, the airplane to fill that niche probably won't be an A380. The airplane to fill that niche hasn't even been dreamed up yet.

As I frequently agree with DocLightning (even though I don't say it), I am in agreement with him here.
I don't have all the math, stats, and projections of others in here, so I just think what I think. Since nobody has yet to put seats in a 380 that reach it's design maximum, nor has anyone bitten at the proposed 11-abreast additional capacity, I don't see the need for a 380 stretch. If current potential capacity hasn't been exploited, then why would an even larger potential capacity be considered?

The ideas for a 380-800 Neo would make the plane more efficient, with less investment. The lighter landing gear, smaller empennage (or use of the current dead space), lighter engines, more use of composites, etc., would make the plane more profitable to operate, disregarding the development cost and higher selling price. I see the only reason for a stretch is to allow for larger premium cabins (assuming there is demand) without reducing the steerage capacity.

It does sound like there is room to consider a new VLA aircraft in the future, with technology that hasn't yet been designed, whether the capacity is greatly increased or not. It should be designed with options for long-range as well as high-capacity short haul. But, if the 380 is not tweaked to extend it's viability to bridge the time before EIS of the next generation, A and B better get working on it now. As with the 737Max response to the 320 Neo, I think Boeing's attention was diverted from getting on with the next generation, MOM or whatever., and now there is a gap in the market need. For the new VLA concept, Airbus (as well as Boeing) shouldn't tie themselves up with minimal improvements to existing models which even so may not have much sales potential, and plunge forward with all new technology. (Composites, renewable and non-fossil fuels, etc. being part of the out of the current box thinking. )

That said, I still would rather check in for a flight and arrive at Customs and baggage claim on no more than a lower to the ground 300 seater. I imagine the evacuation slide from the upper deck of a 380 is quite a wild ride!
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rbavfan
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:32 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Doubtful.

The problem is new engines will add 10-15% extra range to the A380-800 which isn't needed.

So a stretch would definitely be required to go with the new engines to make it remotely close to being optimised.

The problem is the A380 is already very big. Making it bigger will not help.

If we do see a new A380NEO it will be a straight simple stretch with new engines. Maximum takeoff weight will probably not increase. So any extra engineering or strengthening will not be required. The aircraft will simply fill up with less fuel to equal the weight of the stretch. So the stretch will probably not have a payload increase by weight only by volume. This will be fine for emirates as they run a very low density.


Qantas & Singapore would disagree with you. 15% would give still air range around 10800 mile range with 575 passengers on board. As Qantas flies 91 fewer passengers than that it could be feasible.to do SYD-LHR.
 
travelhound
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:46 am

Considering QANTAS are thinking about using the 787-9 instead of the A380 on the SYD-DFW route, range is just one part of the equation.

I'd suggest the capacity/frequency equation and the science the sits behind it is of far more relevance than the CASM numbers of a projected A380NEO alone.

For argument sake two daily 787-9's compared to one A380 could result in 15% more passengers and increased yields.

If this is correct any savings associated with an A380NEO would need to be modelled against lost revenues associated with flying less passengers with lower yields.

I suspect our arguments are somewhat short sighted!
 
moa999
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:53 am

The DFW-SYD route in particular is marginal for the A380 and often flies with a lot of blocked seats.
 
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Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:26 am

American 767 wrote:
Airbus tried to sell it to major freighter operators, but without success. There was a time when UPS showed interest in it. UPS was thinking of buying it but decided not to so Airbus aborted the A380F project.


You are making up history here. not unusual for some posters. But still not the way it happened.

25 A380F ~~May 2006
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?ti ... 424#Orders

Then Airbus ran into trouble with the base model ( mostly wiring, a black hole of engineering hours )
and work on the -900 and -800F was pushed on the backburner and very low heat.
From there -800F orders seem to have been morphed or canceled in a mutual arrangement.
Murphy is an optimist

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