Your thoughts on which countries will see a pickup in holidaymakers next year.

Spain is expected to see a large increase, the mainland and the islands according to Expedia.
Italy and Croatia and the Greek island are also predicted to be winners.
Further afield the Maldives and Seychelles and showing increased bookings

The losers seem to be Turkey Tunisia and Egypt.
your suggestions?

Well, for tourists coming in from the U.S., I expect we will hear about increased numbers for a number of places, pretty much in par with the ones you listed. I think Hungary will see a nice boost thanks to the new services from LOT Polish from Chicago & JFK and continued interest in the region in general, but if I had to throw a wild card out there, I would say we'll be hearing a lot more about more people traveling to and discovering Malta.

Fon't forget about new born hotspot Croatia, Sven.

Spain is quite flat and I can’t see big increases. Madrid and Valencia are quite up while Catalonia is down, so it levels. The Canary Islands are already at full capacity.

If you look at new routes you can see where growth might be:

1. Greece. IMO Greece will be the winner of S18. ATH alone is getting more than 50 new routes (mainly with A3, FR and W6), and then SKG and the islands.

2. Southern Italy: an underdeveloped destination that is getting a lot of new service (BRI, NAP, BDS..)

3. Croatia, specially more unknown areas like Brač and Pula (Istria). Also Montenegro which somehow is the Croatia of 15 years ago.

stlgph wrote:

I would say we'll be hearing a lot more about more people traveling to and discovering Malta.

Have you been to Malta? IMO (and many people I know who has visited) the country is a dump and by far the worst Mediterranean destination. Also the island is already incredibly overbuilt and ovecrowded, so capacity is limited.

Portugal is set to rise. It's been touted here in Australia as "the next Croatia". Porto in particular has picked up a bunch of awards this year for "best destination" or similar.

The Cape Verde islands are upcoming as a holiday destination, although mostly in the winter when all of Europe is considered too cold. Even in the Canary islands it gets a bit chilly these days, but Cape Verde is still warm and sunny. Some people call it "the eternal summer".

Cyprus might also be a popular holiday destination this summer. It's about the only place in the eastern Mediterranean sea that isn't in a muslim country (Europeans generally tend to avoid muslim countries as holiday destinations).

In Portugal Madeira / Porto Santo and the Azores will do good. In Italy I can see Sardinia upcoming for holidays.

For further destinations you should be looking at Brazil (Natal and Recife), the Caribbean, Mexico, Sri Lanka and Thailand (Phuket).

SCQ83 wrote:

stlgph wrote:

I would say we'll be hearing a lot more about more people traveling to and discovering Malta.

Have you been to Malta? IMO (and many people I know who has visited) the country is a dump and by far the worst Mediterranean destination. Also the island is already incredibly overbuilt and ovecrowded, so capacity is limited.

That is an extraorrdinarily harsh criticism of Malta. It has great weather, historical places, quality hotels and some (though not many) sandy beaches. It is a short hop to its sister Island Gozo which all adds up in my book to a decent place to visit - maybe just for a week at a time as its not that large, unless you are a total sun worshipper and want to stay as long as the sun shines .

And no I am not relying on second hand assessments from friends but from my own experiences from four visits to the island.

I'm assuming Thailand will continue to be a populare Choice, atleast by Scandinavians.

From a dutch view:
Croatia and surroundings is getting more popular by the year. Traditional destinations like Spain/France will remain strong.

Egypt, Turkey will be big losers due to continuing political stability and safety issues (turkey not as much as egypt). One I am not sure about is Sint Maarten, I really hope they can recover this summer.

This thread is a very interesting read... in terms of the less beachy destinations, Iceland looks to still be on the rise!

Cyprus has seen a massive increase the past summer and this growth is expected to grow in S18, with new routes from Cobalt and the new Cyprus Airways. Also, it's probably the last country in the Eastern Mediterranean area considered to be safe.

Interestingly I’ve noticed what appears to be a lot more flights from London airports to Turkey in summer 2018... seems at odds with the idea that people are afraid to go to Turkey. Just from Luton alone, Easyjet and Thomas Cook are expanding Turkish offerings, and SunExpress is starting flights to five different destinations.

Sure there will still be tourists going to Turkey, but less than before. Besides these flights also cater to a large Turkish population living in Europe to visit their home country. Those are not traditional European holiday makers.

Those looking for a cheap beach holiday might go to the Black Sea beaches in Bulgaria, so flights to Varna and Burgas are definitely adviced for holiday airlines this summer season. Bulgaria is probably the cheapest place to stay for a beach holiday. Spain, Italy, Greece and even Turkey are all far more expensive.

The memory of your average holiday maker is blissfully short, just as their political awareness is inconsequential unless seriously bad news is repeatedly blared on the front pages of twitter and facebook. That means Turkey is on the rise again, and will be attracting a lot more people this season on the back of that and extremely attractive offers.

Greece will continue to rise, as will Portugal.

The new 'black' is long-haul, low-fare, holidays. So expect to see major growth to the US, courtesy of a growing list of LCC carriers offering transatlantic service and a 'weak' US Dollar against the Euro; if you can take the kids to see Mickey and Hollywood for the same price as a fortnight in Chania, your average punter couldn't care less what the orange menace is up to.

Spain will be packed to the limit - maybe except Catalonia. Booking summer holidays was a bit of a challenge this year, especially when it came to flights. But Germany is hit by the demise of AB, so at the moment a lot of capacity is missing.

My favourite is La Palma - imho it is one of the most outstanding destinations in Europe.

aviastephen wrote:

Fon't forget about new born hotspot Croatia, Sven.

Croatia is hardly a new-born hotspot. The country (and whatever it was in the Yugoslav years) has been very popular with western tourists since the 1970s, only interrupted briefly by the civil war.

Yugoslavia was most definitely a very popular holiday hotspot during the communist era especially with the British, Germans and Scandinavians with flights from all over Europe heading to Dubrovnik, Llubijana, Pula, Split, Zadar with the former Yugotours being a major player in the market.

Long before Turkey was ever considered a holiday destination let alone a tourist hotspot.

But Croatia certainly didn't bounce back as a tourist hotspot after that 'brief' four year civil war!

It took a while for Croatia to reemerge as a tourist destination for Europeans but having been to the country myself I thoroughly recommend visiting especially the old city of Dubrovnik.

It's a 'new born travel hotspot' for this generation but it's not actually a 'new' hotspot as it had that recognition over 25 years ago before the civil war.

Croatia has become a 'new' travel hotspot because of it not being in the European Union and it's looked upon as being a clean friendly safe and on the whole a fairly inexpensive country to visit.

I would say that Croatia especially Dubrovnik and Split have been travel hotspots for at least the last 10 years and both destinations are very popular cruise ports as is nearby Kotor in Montenegro which is another country well worth visiting.

Turkey is bouncing back for summer 2018 with so much extra capacity added especially from the United Kingdom and Germany, even Tunisia is gradually attracting tourists again for summer 2018 with both Thomas Cook and TUI returning to the country.

South Africa also continues to experience good tourism growth from almost all European markets, and seems to be picking up even more this year:
While the big 1-stop connector airlines (which have in the past taken some traffic from the legacy carriers on the Europe-SA market) like EK, QR, ET, KQ also expand their services and capacity to South Africa, the European legacy carriers are also now making a comeback in returning services and increased frequency/capacity recently...BA, AF, KL, LH.
While Alitalia (from Apr to JNB) and Austrian (from Oct to CPT) is also returning to the market.
On the other hand the LCLH market is also starting to touch here after Eurowings started a CPT service a few months ago and Joon taking over from AF on the CPT route from April...so here's hoping this will be the year for Norwegian as well...

seahawk wrote:

Spain will be packed to the limit - maybe except Catalonia. Booking summer holidays was a bit of a challenge this year, especially when it came to flights.

My experience is the other way around. You can get good fares even in prime destinations in peak season. I have paid 50 euros or less for flights between Ibiza and Madrid or Europe in August on Saturday or Sunday only bought a few weeks in advance.

The problem with some of those tiny islands in Spain (like Ibiza, Menorca, Fuerteventura, Lanzarote, La Palma) is that carriers can add as many flights as they want, but if there is no hotel/AirBNB capacity, tourists will not travel (unless they sleep on the beach!). I recall seeing load factors for Ryanair this summer in IBZ and they were the lowest among their Spanish bases.

In more populated islands (like Mallorca, Tenerife, Gran Canaria) this is still a problem, however those islands are way more populated so cheap fares can stimulate local demand so local residents might fancy a cheap summer break in Edinburg, Krakow or Stockholm.

And of course in mainland Spain this is less likely an issue since people will continue their journey by car or train anywhere.

Cunard wrote:

I would say that Croatia especially Dubrovnik and Split have been travel hotspots for at least the last 10 years and both destinations are very popular cruise ports as is nearby Kotor in Montenegro which is another country well worth visiting.

Istria and Pula is "pushing it" and getting a lot of new service.

Also Zadar, but I think that is partially due to Split already slot-restricted during peak season.

The island of Brac (opposite Split) has got a new runway extension and now capable of B737/A320s, they are getting lots of new service.

Cunard wrote:

Croatia has become a 'new' travel hotspot because of it not being in the European Union

You surely mean because they are in the European Union?

SCQ83 wrote:

seahawk wrote:

Spain will be packed to the limit - maybe except Catalonia. Booking summer holidays was a bit of a challenge this year, especially when it came to flights.

My experience is the other way around. You can get good fares even in prime destinations in peak season. I have paid 50 euros or less for flights between Ibiza and Madrid or Europe in August on Saturday or Sunday only bought a few weeks in advance.

The problem with some of those tiny islands in Spain (like Ibiza, Menorca, Fuerteventura, Lanzarote, La Palma) is that carriers can add as many flights as they want, but if there is no hotel/AirBNB capacity, tourists will not travel (unless they sleep on the beach!). I recall seeing load factors for Ryanair this summer in IBZ and they were the lowest among their Spanish bases.

In more populated islands (like Mallorca, Tenerife, Gran Canaria) this is still a problem, however those islands are way more populated so cheap fares can stimulate local demand so local residents might fancy a cheap summer break in Edinburg, Krakow or Stockholm.

And of course in mainland Spain this is less likely an issue since people will continue their journey by car or train anywhere.

As I said it is probably the Ab capacity missing in Germany. I had no problems getting hotels, but finding flights was not easy.

seahawk wrote:

As I said it is probably the Ab capacity missing in Germany. I had no problems getting hotels, but finding flights was not easy.

That's only a temporary problem, sure in time all these destinations will be restarted by other airlines. A lot of them already are, but since there are so many of them (EuroWings, Condor, EasyJet, Lufthansa, Germania, TuiFly Germany, Ryanair, etc) you may have to look which airline took over the flight to which destination.

I've had no problem finding a flight the last time I went to the Canary Islands, and I even flew from a German airport. Granted, Weeze is so close to the Dutch border it might as well have been in the Netherlands but still it is in Germany. Finding a place to stay at the Canary Islands was another story though. There were still some options, but they didn't exactly come cheap. And that was in the low season. Imagine what it's like in the high season. Plenty of flights, but a shortage of hotels and appartments.

Portugal will suprise everyone...

About Italy, Rome never again. Unfriendly people, unfriendly city for tourism.

Cunard wrote:

But Croatia certainly didn't bounce back as a tourist hotspot after that 'brief' four year civil war!
..
Croatia has become a 'new' travel hotspot because of it not being in the European Union and it's looked upon as being a clean friendly safe and on the whole a fairly inexpensive country to visit.

Just because it took the British quarter of a century to notice the war is over, it does not mean this is the case for others, especially those close enough not being dependent on air travel.

Cunard wrote:

Croatia has become a 'new' travel hotspot because of it not being in the European Union and it's looked upon as being a clean friendly safe and on the whole a fairly inexpensive country to visit.

Croatia is part of the EU even if they don't have Euro or not part of Schengen yet (Slovenia is Schengen and has Euro).

Even though I thought I was very upto date with what's going on in the world but my mistake obviously as I've just googled and realised that Croatia joined the European Union on the 01 July 2013 and the country is the 18th most visited country in the world for tourism.

My last visit to Croatia was in 2009 so I'm obviously a bit out of touch regarding the country being a member of the EU.

Interesting. From the UK, the classics are becoming as popular as ever Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Malta & Greece despite B*****t and the high euro. Bulgaria is continuing its popularity. Croatia is going up and up as is Montenegro.

If you want a dark horse that is being touted at the moment as up and coming place to go, it is Albania! Especially the southern coast near Corfu and the capital Tirana. Both major broadsheets the Guardian and the Telegraph are pushing it, The Telegraph - Is Albania Europe's next big beach holiday destination?. Plus with Wizzair offering flights to Tirana airport, and the cheap prices it looks a go place to unspoilt location.

(Sorry, the word is becoming a swear word about the UK at the moment)

smallvoyageur wrote:

Interesting. From the UK, the classics are becoming as popular as ever Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Malta & Greece despite B*****t and the high euro. Bulgaria is continuing its popularity. Croatia is going up and up as is Montenegro.

If you want a dark horse that is being touted at the moment as up and coming place to go, it is Albania! Especially the southern coast near Corfu and the capital Tirana. Both major broadsheets the Guardian and the Telegraph are pushing it, The Telegraph - Is Albania Europe's next big beach holiday destination?. Plus with Wizzair offering flights to Tirana airport, and the cheap prices it looks a go place to unspoilt location.

(Sorry, the word is becoming a swear word about the UK at the moment)

Hmm interesting! I may have to convince the wife that a family beach holiday to Albania is a good idea!

smallvoyageur wrote:

Interesting. From the UK, the classics are becoming as popular as ever Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Malta & Greece despite B*****t and the high euro. Bulgaria is continuing its popularity. Croatia is going up and up as is Montenegro.

If you want a dark horse that is being touted at the moment as up and coming place to go, it is Albania! Especially the southern coast near Corfu and the capital Tirana. Both major broadsheets the Guardian and the Telegraph are pushing it, The Telegraph - Is Albania Europe's next big beach holiday destination?. Plus with Wizzair offering flights to Tirana airport, and the cheap prices it looks a go place to unspoilt location.

(Sorry, the word is becoming a swear word about the UK at the moment)

I am planning on visiting Albania this year although I haven't booked it yet as I'm sure I'll be going somewhere else before hand as I usually have at least 6 to 8 breaks a year and tend to book under a month before traveling.

Albania will be the 94th country that I have visited unless I visit a new one beforehand!

readytotaxi wrote:

Your thoughts on which countries will see a pickup in holidaymakers next year.

Spain is expected to see a large increase, the mainland and the islands according to Expedia.
Italy and Croatia and the Greek island are also predicted to be winners.
Further afield the Maldives and Seychelles and showing increased bookings

The losers seem to be Turkey Tunisia and Egypt.
your suggestions?

Ex Germany North Africa is rebounding strongly, not pre-crisis levels but still a definite uptick. Also, Turkey is slowly picking up a couple of Germans again.

Vasu, Cunard,
We visited Albania on a day trio from Corfu last year, had a day around Saranda visiting the town and Butrint National Park. Great weather, pleasant seafront, friendly people. If it gets developed Albania will thrive as a tourist destination.
Turkey will continue to recover, we have been several times over the last few years, to different areas, and never had any bother. Great country.
Regards
b

beenalongtime wrote:

Vasu, Cunard,
We visited Albania on a day trip from Corfu last year, had a day around Saranda visiting the town and Butrint National Park. Great weather, pleasant seafront, friendly people. If it gets developed Albania will thrive as a tourist destination.
Turkey will continue to recover, we have been several times over the last few years, to different areas, and never had any bother. Great country.
Regards
b

Never been, but I have thought it is like Bulgaria was around twenty years ago when the destination was heavily underdeveloped.

The big thing that will influence British people's choice of a break is simply news as in safety and cost, hence why Greece has bounced back to the way it was and Turkey is a bit of a no-go area. Certainly, with the downfall of Monarch, a lot of the Eastern Mediterranian and North African destinations have just gone off. My manager who loves Sharm el-Shiekh chose Cabo Verde instead, and since the Sisi régime, Egypt is a ghost country. Morocco is not having the problems and is flourishing.

But however, as I said before the elephant in the room is B*****t and how this will affect people's choices, whether the future European pre-check would people off, air agreements. or whether the pound would further tank.

beenalongtime wrote:

Vasu, Cunard,
We visited Albania on a day trio from Corfu last year, had a day around Saranda visiting the town and Butrint National Park. Great weather, pleasant seafront, friendly people. If it gets developed Albania will thrive as a tourist destination.
Turkey will continue to recover, we have been several times over the last few years, to different areas, and never had any bother. Great country.
Regards
b

Sounds like I did the same day trip as you around a decade ago! I do hope for the wonderful people that package tours can be encouraged...