TenniSommelier
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US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:23 pm

Based on DeSpringbokke's last post on the United and Boeing 787-10, I would like to make a prediction and rumour thread to see which US Legacy carriers would operate the 787-10.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:28 pm

IMO, none will order. DL is going Airbus. AA still have 787 8/9 due, with the 359 on order, but doesn't get their first until the early 20's. UA has converted 350-1000 for 359s.
s for 359
 
cledaybuck
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:23 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:
IMO, none will order. DL is going Airbus. AA still have 787 8/9 due, with the 359 on order, but doesn't get their first until the early 20's. UA has converted 350-1000 for 359s.
s for 359
UA already did order and has delivery scheduled for next year, so I like their chances. AA has a ton of 787 options, so I am going to say yes. For DL, commonality doesn't seem to be a big deal there, so I wouldn't rule them out . But if I had to guess, I would say no for DL.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:12 am

USGlobal Airways will likely announce their intention to use the type... around maybe 2035.

:duck:

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atcsundevil
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:28 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:
IMO, none will order. DL is going Airbus. AA still have 787 8/9 due, with the 359 on order, but doesn't get their first until the early 20's. UA has converted 350-1000 for 359s.
s for 359

United has 14 787-10 on order, and I'm almost positive they've got options for more. Deliveries start around a year from now. United's conversion from the 350-1000 to the -900 was unrelated to their existing 787-10 order. While the seat counts of the two aircraft are similar, their missions are quite different. United will mostly utilize the 787-10 on routes similar to what's currently operated with a 767-400ER, and use the A350-900 to begin replacement of the 777-200ER fleet. I anticipate UA eventually taking more 787-9s and/or -10s.

So, as cledaybuck said, considering they start taking 787-10s in a year, I'd say their odds of operating the 787-10 are pretty good!

I'm doubtful that Delta will ever take the 787 in general, since they've seemed to be completely disinterested in the aircraft. It's an interesting position given the relative enthusiasm from UA and AA. However, I could see AA taking the -10 someday. They'll already have a fleet of more than 40 787-8/-9. In addition, they will also need to be looking at replacing their sizable fleet of 777-200ERs at some point. They're bringing on a small fleet of A350-900s to replace the A330-300 fleet from 2020-2024, but I see the 787-10 being a better long-term prospect for replacement for many of those routes. I'm somewhat surprised AA didn't convert orders like UA, but if the 787-10 has strong performance like I suspect it will, then I anticipate AA taking a good hard look.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:42 am

I think DL will eventually operate the 789 but not the 78J. It it too similar in mission profile to the 339 they have already ordered.

I do think AA will order the 78J eventually for TATL flights like their partner BA.
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LAX772LR
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:14 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:
DL is going Airbus.

Can we stop repeating this inaccuracy please?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Sayan777
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:30 am

When is Boeing starting to deliver the 787-10. Who is the launch customer.Which airlines gets the early delivery slots.
 
Momo1435
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:37 am

Sayan777 wrote:
When is Boeing starting to deliver the 787-10. Who is the launch customer.Which airlines gets the early delivery slots.

1st delivery is scheduled in Q2 2018, Singapore Airlines is the launch customer, followed by Etihad & United later in the year.
 
deltal1011man
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:42 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:
IMO, none will order. DL is going Airbus. AA still have 787 8/9 due, with the 359 on order, but doesn't get their first until the early 20's. UA has converted 350-1000 for 359s.
s for 359

Really? when was that announcement made?



As for the OP, IMO all three of the US3 will end up operating the 78J. I also expect 789s at DL and possible a smallish 788 fleet like UA and AA are doing for thin and new start routes. For an airline still building an Asian network a 788 would be an ideal aircraft for them to start routes to cities like TPE and some routes out of LAX. The 789 might be a solution for the HKG problem.

LAX772LR wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
DL is going Airbus.

Can we stop repeating this inaccuracy please?

Exactly. DL has made it well known have the "right plane for the right route" is much more important than a simple fleet.
On top of that, TechOps will already be doing the Trent 1000 and Trent 7000 (basically a Trent 1000) in-house. Also wouldn't shock me to see DL wanting to continue its strong relationship with GE and start a GEnX line in-house. (and thus more MRO revenue)

I fully expect the next RFP for wide bodies will be just like the last, whoever makes the best deal. Be it the 787, A350, A330 or MOM.
Also people need to remember, Ed is a little bit different from Richard in what he wants to do with the airline. He has said during several investor events he wants to get the airline closer to 50/50 domestic/international. I think we will see a little more pre-Richard DL plan going on with Ed/Glen running the company. JMO.
I don't understand why this site even has moderators anymore.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:23 am

deltal1011man wrote:
DL has made it well known have the "right plane for the right route"

"...at the right time, for the right price"
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:08 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:
IMO, none will order. DL is going Airbus. AA still have 787 8/9 due, with the 359 on order, but doesn't get their first until the early 20's. UA has converted 350-1000 for 359s.
s for 359


The AA A350 order is up in the air. If they cancel or convert, I can see it happening.

DL isn't going to get it.
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A350
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:52 am

It'll offer great economics on TATL and LatAm routes. I expect it 'll find it's place, not everywhere a 8000+nm range aircraft makes sense
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:05 pm

I'd suspect that AA and UA will both order the jet. It will be excellent for TATL, South American and possibly even the shorter transpacific routes (Japan and Korea, MAYBE Beijing... all viable from LAX, and certainly from SFO).

Delta? Maybe but unlikely. They seem to prefer smaller aircraft (the A350-900 is slightly smaller than the 787-10, and the A330-900 is substantially smaller), and the A330-900 can cover all the range that the 787-10 can. Unless they need to upgauge capacity ex-SEA to North-East Asia or TATL capacity above what the A330-900 and A350-900 would allow... but would it be worth all the extra costs to add a new type?

The 787-10 is a great jet of course. The economics of it look fantastically scrumptious. Plenty of airlines, and I'm sure both United and American, will have a lot of fun with the model.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:50 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
DL is going Airbus.

Can we stop repeating this inaccuracy please?


Thranduiall - My comment was in reference to the current 339, and 350 order DL has.. Not to mention the large 321 order. They aren't taking the 787s from the NW order. That lends some legitimacy that they see the Airbus widebodies as their future fleet.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:09 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
(the A350-900 is slightly smaller than the 787-10, and the A330-900 is substantially smaller)

Yes and no. A359 fuselage is slightly shorter, but it's also wider (capable of 10abreast) and it also has a sizably wider wingspan.


AAvgeek744 wrote:
Thranduiall

How is it that you're not able to spell a word, despite it being right in front of you?


AAvgeek744 wrote:
Not to mention the large 321 order.

Sure, but let's mention the large 737 order, and C-Series order.


AAvgeek744 wrote:
That lends some legitimacy that they see the Airbus widebodies as their future fleet.

No it doesn't, it just shows that you're prone to presumption.

The airline has no policy nor preference of manufacturer. They will purchase from the OEM that offers them the optimum plane at the optimum time for the chosen mission at the preferable price.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:39 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
(the A350-900 is slightly smaller than the 787-10, and the A330-900 is substantially smaller)

Yes and no. A359 fuselage is slightly shorter, but it's also wider (capable of 10abreast) and it also has a sizably wider wingspan.


Just to clarify, by "smaller" I was speaking in terms of passenger capacity and presuming 9-abreast LOPA in economy (and I think its exceedingly unlikely mainstream airlines will go 10-abreast economy in an A350). By those standards, the A350-900 is indeed a touch smaller than the 787-10.

Which isn't to say that the A350-900 is bad. Its not bad. Its a very nice plane with fantastic capability and efficiency. Its already sold a lot and it will sell even more and be very successful. It just has, in realistic configurations, a little bit less passenger capacity than the 787-10. Which is fine considering it has a far larger range.

The jets are not substitutes, they're not in direct competition, so people who like A and people who like B can avoid any silly genital-measuring contests. Both jets are great and both will do very well.
 
AAvgeek744
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Re: US3 and Boeing 787-10 Prediction

Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:37 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
(the A350-900 is slightly smaller than the 787-10, and the A330-900 is substantially smaller)

Yes and no. A359 fuselage is slightly shorter, but it's also wider (capable of 10abreast) and it also has a sizably wider wingspan.


AAvgeek744 wrote:
Thranduiall

How is it that you're not able to spell a word, despite it being right in front of you?


AAvgeek744 wrote:
Not to mention the large 321 order.

Sure, but let's mention the large 737 order, and C-Series order.


AAvgeek744 wrote:
That lends some legitimacy that they see the Airbus widebodies as their future fleet.

No it doesn't, it just shows that you're prone to presumption.

The airline has no policy nor preference of manufacturer. They will purchase from the OEM that offers them the optimum plane at the optimum time for the chosen mission at the preferable price.


Did I say they had a preference? The OP is about the 787-10. My comment was DL seems to be looking at Airbus for their bigger aircraft. I tossed in the 321 order as an example they are more than willing to by Airbus. IMO, they won't buy any 787, but I'll ask for your permission before I make a comment again. :banghead:

Edit, if you want to be so petty to make comments on my spelling, I'll private message you the tech support number for my iPad. Spell check inserted that, and I really didn't care to check it, since you nitpick everything anyone who doesn't agree with you. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

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