The new terminal project in SEA has broken ground with a completion date of 2019. With additional gates and a greatly expanded customs and immigration area, Delta will finally be in a position to continue the SEA build up which has been constrained due to inadequate infrastructure.
Add to this new aircraft deliveries, new LGA and SLC terminals, ATL renovation, LAX relocation and renovation, new airports in MEX and PEK , the fruition of the expanded transatlantic and AM joint ventures and greater cooperation with MU and GOL, and restructured transpacific route network, what will the Delta of 2020 look like?

SEA is a significant expansion, as well as LAX, but LGA & SLC will only be catching up with capacity that has already overgrown their current facilities. Now there may be some incremental growth, but I don't think you'll see any major expansions out of SLC and LGA (also due to slots). Additionally, the new airport in PEK will likely not have a whole lot of impact on DL unless the US-China bilateral changes significantly or MU opens up a massive connecting hub (fairly unlikely as well due to the airspace restrictions). PEK's biggest problem isn't necessarily airport capacity, but really the archaic way that airspace is utilized in China. The only thing of impact that DL could be involved with is switching airports, unless there is a major geopolitical shift in US-China relations.

As much as I am a fan of DL, why oh why did they have to implement a lux tax for booking business class seats on the A350? Depending on the fare class, it can be as much as $500.00 each way. Really DL?

I continue to remain skeptical that we'll see much more international growth out of Seattle, even after the much anticipated international arrivals facility is completed. TPE is really the only addictional TPAC route I think is feasible but I would love to be wrong. More lift to ICN is inevitable with the KE JV coming online and I imagine DL will prefer to connect customers through their new Asian gateway on KE to destinations like BKK, SIN, MNL, rather than fly the routes on their own metal.

I think in three years DL, UA, and AA will all have fewer flights than they do now, because we're at the peak of the economic cycle, and the economy will almost certainly be in a recession by 2020. Although DL is better positioned than UA or AA to ride out the downturn, and probably will capitalize on the other airlines' inevitable cutbacks during the recession (UA at LAX, AA in NYC, etc), I don't see any major growth for DL until after the next recession ends.

DL is well-regarded as the best-run international airline for many reasons but much of its strength has come from its strength in the domestic market. DL’s new US airport projects provide additional capacity in top markets but their growth of focus cities/small hubs provides the greatest potential to distinguish them from other airlines by linking their own hubs, new domestic markets and a new international routes in cities where no other carrier is doing the same thing in other cities.

DL has spent a number of years reworking its international network and strategies and those will certainly pay off over the next 3 years that this thread references.

DL has a stronger joint venture presence in more of the top markets in Europe than any other airline which is why they are able to keep growing their position as the largest airline across the Atlantic despite the growth of transatlantic low cost carriers.

In Latin America, the joint venture with Aeromexico and the partnership with Gol will fuel growth in the two largest economies in Latin America. DL will continue to grow its Latin presence outside of ATL where the vast majority of its Latin capacity now originates or terminates.

DL’s greatest growth spurt will come in Asia. The new/expanded LAX and SEA terminals are all about growing DL’s international presence on the west coast and the domestic flights necessary to support them. After years of fighting to be able to retain a hub in Tokyo, DL now has a viable Pacific strategy that is built around its own flights from larger Pacific gateways at LAX, SEA and DTW with ATL and MSP playing major supporting roles. I believe you will see DL back in the JFK-Asia market on its own metal within 3 years. The KE JV will add strength to DL’s overall market presence but one need only look at Europe to see that DL serves the most cities in Europe from the US of any airline and is also the largest airline on its own metal. It couldn’t hold either of those titles if it simply gave its traffic away to its JV partners.

DL’s fleet replacement will be in high gear over the next 3 years and the addition of the A330-900s, the A350s, and the C series will all give DL advantages in the marketplace.

The next 3 years are likely to be DL’s best ever and also help DL further pull away from the rest of the industry.

Hopefully we'll see SEA-FAT by then...

jumbojet wrote:

As much as I am a fan of DL, why oh why did they have to implement a lux tax for booking business class seats on the A350? Depending on the fare class, it can be as much as $500.00 each way. Really DL?

Just saw that article, and honestly the topic probably deserves its own thread.

I'd love to see DL finally find strength in the HKG market... in particular, reintroducing LAX-HKG and DTW-HKG, in addition to SEA.

*sigh*
One can hope. But any option to avoid KE would be welcome.

winginit wrote:

and honestly the topic probably deserves its own thread.

Done:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1371503&p=19753997#p19753997

LAX772LR wrote:

I'd love to see DL finally find strength in the HKG market... in particular, reintroducing LAX-HKG and DTW-HKG, in addition to SEA.

*sigh*
One can hope. But any option to avoid KE would be welcome.

SEA-HKG upgauges to a 777 at the end of March 2017 for a good start

Create a holding company called Deltallegis and buy a hotel and car rental company?

stlgph wrote:

Oh come on, let's make this fun.

* Delta pulls out of online travel agencies and goes at it with its own reservations platforms and marketing

* Delta makes a huge real estate acquisition - I'm not talking about an airline merger, I'm talking about buying something, like a hotel, resorts, or leisure company, or something entirely out of the box, such as a sports team

* Delta makes other purchases for the portfolio. Again, not an airline, but I'm thinking of something along the lines of an aviation-related vendor/supply company, even an online travel agency

atl100million wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

I'd love to see DL finally find strength in the HKG market... in particular, reintroducing LAX-HKG and DTW-HKG, in addition to SEA.

*sigh*
One can hope. But any option to avoid KE would be welcome.

SEA-HKG upgauges to a 777 at the end of March 2017 for a good start

...2018?

That's nice. I'm guessing they'll bring back DTW-HKG long before they try LAX-HKG again though.

jumbojet wrote:

As much as I am a fan of DL, why oh why did they have to implement a lux tax for booking business class seats on the A350? Depending on the fare class, it can be as much as $500.00 each way. Really DL?

Because they can. Through consolidation there is less competition so they are pretty much able to add on any fees they desire just another way Delta is flexing it's muscle. What really is the purpose this plane is replacing the less economical 744 so what is the real reason and this should be met with out rage as far as customers go.Once again another reason to not book a flight through Detroit because that is the A350 base.

LAX772LR wrote:

atl100million wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

I'd love to see DL finally find strength in the HKG market... in particular, reintroducing LAX-HKG and DTW-HKG, in addition to SEA.

*sigh*
One can hope. But any option to avoid KE would be welcome.

SEA-HKG upgauges to a 777 at the end of March 2017 for a good start

...2018?

That's nice. I'm guessing they'll bring back DTW-HKG long before they try LAX-HKG again though.

DTW-HKG and MSP-ICN are routes that Delta will NEVER serve.

I am guessing that over the next three years Detla will slowly reduce capacity in favor of shifting connections over SEA, MSP and ATL. I think in 3 years Delta will cut it's operations in half out of Detroit focusing mainly on the business heavy markets while leaving the rest to whom ever want to pick them up. Asia will be trimmed to a bare minimum and as far as Europe goes MUC and FCO will no longer be served and AMS will be reduced to at best 2 daily. I also see GRU being dropped. Other than that I see growth at MSP and ATL while the other markets stay pretty much status quo except like I say DTW will be reduced dramatically..

I think DL has a big fish to fry at LGA. Everywhere else will be on autopilot, more or less.

The airline/hotel combo didn't do so hot, ask UA/Westin.

klm617 wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

That's nice. I'm guessing they'll bring back DTW-HKG long before they try LAX-HKG again though.

DTW-HKG and MSP-ICN are routes that Delta will NEVER serve.

If they do, will you self-immolate?

On behalf of everyone reading this: if you're so sure, then make us that deal. What'dya say?

LAX772LR wrote:

klm617 wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

That's nice. I'm guessing they'll bring back DTW-HKG long before they try LAX-HKG again though.

DTW-HKG and MSP-ICN are routes that Delta will NEVER serve.

If they do, will you self-immolate?

On behalf of everyone reading this: if you're so sure, then make us that deal. What'dya say?

And what will you pony up if they don't ?

Osubuckeyes wrote:

SEA is a significant expansion, as well as LAX, but LGA & SLC will only be catching up with capacity that has already overgrown their current facilities. Now there may be some incremental growth, but I don't think you'll see any major expansions out of SLC and LGA (also due to slots). Additionally, the new airport in PEK will likely not have a whole lot of impact on DL unless the US-China bilateral changes significantly or MU opens up a massive connecting hub (fairly unlikely as well due to the airspace restrictions). PEK's biggest problem isn't necessarily airport capacity, but really the archaic way that airspace is utilized in China. The only thing of impact that DL could be involved with is switching airports, unless there is a major geopolitical shift in US-China relations.

Sorry, this is wrong. The new SLC will have slightly less gates but every gate will be able to handle larger aircraft than before (all gates have jetbridges). The entire airport is being reconfigured to a single terminal concept (none of the old airport will remain) and the capacity of the airport is being increased from 12 million a year (it currently serves 23 million) to over 30 million. We had to proceed directly to phase two last May because the traffic projections showed that the growth at SLC would outgrow the airport by 2025, just a year after the project is completed. So yes the new SLC airport was designed to meet above current capacity but the project scope was expanded in May of 2016 to encompass a significant increase in capacity.

Slots will no longer be an issue at SLC in 2020. Seattle's domestic performance has been incredibly poor and Delta is losing money on subsiding Seattle routes from the income of more profitable hubs like SLC and ATL. Seattle is Delta's transpacific gateway but the actual flights out of Seattle have been leaving with very poor load factors because Seattle is not yet a mature market. SLC is a mature market and DL knows exactly what they want to do with SLC... if DL was there for every step of the way during SLC and SEA's expansion, it's clear that they aren't trying to pitch them against each other.

jubguy3 wrote:

Sorry, this is wrong. The new SLC will have slightly less gates but every gate will be able to handle larger aircraft than before (all gates have jetbridges). The entire airport is being reconfigured to a single terminal concept (none of the old airport will remain) and the capacity of the airport is being increased from 12 million a year (it currently serves 23 million) to over 30 million. We had to proceed directly to phase two last May because the traffic projections showed that the growth at SLC would outgrow the airport by 2025, just a year after the project is completed. So yes the new SLC airport was designed to meet above current capacity but the project scope was expanded in May of 2016 to encompass a significant increase in capacity.

So the airport is catching up capacity and adding more than originally planned, but my opinion remains the same. I don't think DL will be doing any expansions beyond incremental growth in SLC.

jubguy3 wrote:

Slots will no longer be an issue at SLC in 2020. Seattle's domestic performance has been incredibly poor and Delta is losing money on subsiding Seattle routes from the income of more profitable hubs like SLC and ATL. Seattle is Delta's transpacific gateway but the actual flights out of Seattle have been leaving with very poor load factors because Seattle is not yet a mature market. SLC is a mature market and DL knows exactly what they want to do with SLC... if DL was there for every step of the way during SLC and SEA's expansion, it's clear that they aren't trying to pitch them against each other.

My slot comment is referring to LGA... So if slots are going away at LGA in 2020 that not only is quite concerning, but is also news to me.

I understand how DL operates SLC, and I never claimed one will be cut in favor of the other, they serve different purposes... To me it is undeniable that the very existence and efforts of the hub in SEA have restricted some opportunities may have been optimized through SLC before SEA existed. Therefore, I hold the opinion that SLC, over the next three years, will see somewhat limited incremental growth from DL. In fact I would go as far as saying that in the next three years SLC will see more growth from carriers that are not DL (namely ULCCs), but that isn't what this thread is about. If you have any evidence or knowledge of a major expansion from DL I would be willing to hear.

klm617 wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

klm617 wrote:

DTW-HKG and MSP-ICN are routes that Delta will NEVER serve.

If they do, will you self-immolate?

On behalf of everyone reading this: if you're so sure, then make us that deal. What'dya say?

And what will you pony up if they don't ?

Utter dissatisfaction. Not at the lack of the flight though.

Osubuckeyes wrote:

jubguy3 wrote:

Sorry, this is wrong. The new SLC will have slightly less gates but every gate will be able to handle larger aircraft than before (all gates have jetbridges). The entire airport is being reconfigured to a single terminal concept (none of the old airport will remain) and the capacity of the airport is being increased from 12 million a year (it currently serves 23 million) to over 30 million. We had to proceed directly to phase two last May because the traffic projections showed that the growth at SLC would outgrow the airport by 2025, just a year after the project is completed. So yes the new SLC airport was designed to meet above current capacity but the project scope was expanded in May of 2016 to encompass a significant increase in capacity.

So the airport is catching up capacity and adding more than originally planned, but my opinion remains the same. I don't think DL will be doing any expansions beyond incremental growth in SLC.

But DL's plans for the airport don't seem to reflect that... they unanimously approved the construction of the north Concourse, and since an additional Concourse would free up all of the South Concourse for delta, they seem to have additional capacity in mind.

Osubuckeyes wrote:

jubguy3 wrote:

Slots will no longer be an issue at SLC in 2020. Seattle's domestic performance has been incredibly poor and Delta is losing money on subsiding Seattle routes from the income of more profitable hubs like SLC and ATL. Seattle is Delta's transpacific gateway but the actual flights out of Seattle have been leaving with very poor load factors because Seattle is not yet a mature market. SLC is a mature market and DL knows exactly what they want to do with SLC... if DL was there for every step of the way during SLC and SEA's expansion, it's clear that they aren't trying to pitch them against each other.

My slot comment is referring to LGA... So if slots are going away at LGA in 2020 that not only is quite concerning, but is also news to me.

I understand how DL operates SLC, and I never claimed one will be cut in favor of the other, they serve different purposes... To me it is undeniable that the very existence and efforts of the hub in SEA have restricted some opportunities may have been optimized through SLC before SEA existed. Therefore, I hold the opinion that SLC, over the next three years, will see somewhat limited incremental growth from DL. In fact I would go as far as saying that in the next three years SLC will see more growth from carriers that are not DL (namely ULCCs), but that isn't what this thread is about. If you have any evidence or knowledge of a major expansion from DL I would be willing to hear.

The only operations that have moved to seattle are interior Alaskan flights. It's easier to route them through Seattle now but the "focus" of Seattle has been as a TPAC gateway which SLC can't replicate because it's hot and high - almost all of DL's fleet would take payload restrictions from SLC. The reason that SEA is performing so poorly is because DL has been aggressively adding capacity to fight off AS... but the feeds into Seattle aren't performing well, and neither are their TPAC flights. DL either has to get fought by AS slowly and lose, or take heavy hits and fight quickly. Either way I think this was an expensive choice for DL... who knows if it will pay off in the long run.

DL has a stronghold on the market here. WN reduced operations at SLC about a decade ago significantly because Delta's market share allows them to fight on literally every move by low cost carriers.

I don't have "knowledge" of a major expansion by DL because I don't work for DL. I'm simply interpreting the evidence, and the evidence says that DL is going to continue to grow in SLC, especially following the opening of the new airport. SLC is one of DL's most profitable hubs and they aren't going to reduce capacity, let alone give up the hub.