Why ICN will be the magic hub of Asia

WPvsMW · Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:13 pm

This is not particularly about the DL/KE JV, but that JV is certainly a piece of the puzzle. My premise is that ICN will provide the first demonstration of the nonstop, long-haul, domestic feeder-to-foreign international hub strategy in Asia. In short, I postulate that the B78x and A35x will make ICN the magic hub of Asia, extending the "UK feeder to AMS hub" model to Great Circle routes, as follows:
1) Entirely new GC nonstop routes from S.Am. that bypass MIA, ATL, DFW, SFO, and LAX. No US CBP issues. The busiest international airports in S. Am. by pax volume: GRU, BOG, GIG, BSB, EZE... Brazil has 3 of the 4 busiest intl airports in S.Am. I could find no nonstop service between S. Am. and Asia today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... th_America
2) Entirely new routes from second tier airports in the Americas and and in Asia nonstop to ICN.
HND and NRT cannot handle any expansion, certainly not doubling of ops per day, but ICN can.
3) Increased frequencies for existing non-stop hub/hub routes.

I do find ICN spectacularly, incredibly better than NRT for international connections in Asia for the following reasons:
1) ICN architecture is purpose built for high volume movements of pax, street side and airside. Except the departure lobbies, NRT is cramped everywhere in the terminals, esp. ground level.
2) airport boundary security checks if you have to overnight and reenter the airport
3) no pedestrian connection between NRT terminals 1 and 2 ... unless you like pulling luggage through parking lots, or waiting for the slow shuttle bus, or paying (!) for a rail ticket
4) no connection banks (at least for foreign carriers). slots timings are fixed in historic positions, at least for foreign carriers, much like street addresses in JP
5) your connection may take 2.5 hours, terminal to terminal, and cost USD40 minimum for transport ... NRT to HND. Good luck if you have to change trains at Nippori eki or Tokyo eki with luggage.

flyfresno · Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:22 pm

Japan sort of screwed the pooch with Narita: too far away, not good enough rail connections, not updated enough. Incheon isn't exactly close to Seoul, and while there is certainly a difference between the Narita/Haneda/Tokyo relationship and the Incheon/Gimpo/Seoul relationship, there ARE some similarities. But you don't see airlines clamoring to move back to Gimpo the same way they want to go back to Haneda, mostly because ICN works so much better than NRT and is so much closer and well connected to its population center.

WPvsMW · Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:34 pm

There are certainly ground transport similarities between ICN and NRT for local O&D.... ICN (finally) has AREX, and NRT has JR and Keisei express service, but from the international connecting passenger POV, and airline network expansion, [warning: nautical metaphor] NRT and HND are dead in the water, they have lost their mizzen, main, and foremasts ... the lighters (current traffic, no expansion) may come and go from Portsmouth: the captains of JP watch the ICN man-o-war put to sea with trysails and staysails full and taut. Now, to haul the sheet tight.... ICN is a sea-change in the Asia/Americas aviation market, and JP will be the loser.

I think UA is going to get very cozy with BR very fast in *A.

77H · Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:29 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
There are certainly ground transport similarities between ICN and NRT for local O&D.... ICN (finally) has AREX, and NRT has JR and Keisei express service, but from the international connecting passenger POV, and airline network expansion, [warning: nautical metaphor] NRT and HND are dead in the water, they have lost their mizzen, main, and foremasts ... the lighters (current traffic, no expansion) may come and go from Portsmouth: the captains of JP watch the ICN man-o-war put to sea with trysails and staysails full and taut. Now, to haul the sheet tight.... ICN is a sea-change in the Asia/Americas aviation market, and JP will be the loser.

I think UA is going to get very cozy with BR very fast in *A.

Do you mean cozy with OZ (Asiana)? What does BR (EVA) at TPE have to go ICN or TYO airports?

77H

WPvsMW · Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:36 pm

Sorry... yes with OZ.

WPvsMW · Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:36 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
There are certainly ground transport similarities between ICN and NRT for local O&D.... ICN (finally) has AREX, and NRT has JR and Keisei express service, but from the international connecting passenger POV, and airline network expansion, [warning: nautical metaphor] NRT and HND are dead in the water, they have lost their mizzen, main, and foremasts ... the lighters (current traffic, no expansion) may come and go from Portsmouth: the captains of JP watch the ICN man-o-war put to sea with trysails and staysails full and taut. Now, to haul the sheet tight.... ICN is a sea-change in the Asia/Americas aviation market, and JP will be the loser.

I think UA is going to get very cozy with [OZ] very fast in *A.

bzcat · Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:26 am

I read the OP 3 times. I still can't figure out what he or she is talking about.

GRU-ICN is beyond the reach of any 787 or A350 variants with normal payload and configuration. What is so magical about ICN relative to South America?

Thenoflyzone · Sat Jul 15, 2017 1:16 am

bzcat wrote:
I read the OP 3 times. I still can't figure out what he or she is talking about.

GRU-ICN is beyond the reach of any 787 or A350 variants with normal payload and configuration. What is so magical about ICN relative to South America?

thanks, I thought I was the only one !

BENAir01 · Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:22 am

Yeah I dont understands what the OP is trying to argue. However I can say that they are correct on finding no nonstop between S. America and Asia - there are non because of lack of range.

Cubsrule · Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:03 am

WPvsMW wrote:
In short, I postulate that the B78x and A35x will make ICN the magic hub of Asia, extending the "UK feeder to AMS hub."

This model already exists. KE serves something like 30 Japanese airports.

And while I agree with you that ICN offers a better passenger experience than HND or NRT, you make it sound like they offer some sort of third world experience. With the notable exception of international-domestic (or vice versa) at HND, online connections are not terrible at either place. They are certainly worlds ahead of places like ATL or CDG (although CDG is much improved in the last decade).

WPvsMW · Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:55 am

I'll explain further. Think about DL's expansion at LAX. Purely for more trans-cons? IMO, S.Am. expansion is the long-term driver for DL's improvements at LAX, not more trans-cons. Then, think about the future, the Pacific Century. S.Am./ICN nonstops mean a fuel/pax tradeoff on 77Ls, but SCL/ICN (9934 nm) is possible today. Unit revenue... ? Depends upon what pax will pay.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=scl-icn,
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/ques ... -200lr-fly

GTFs or propfans on B78x- or A35x-like frames. Frequency, and nonstops, win. First nonstops, then frequency.

WPvsMW · Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:22 am

Cubsrule wrote:
KE serves something like 30 Japanese airports.

Actually, KE serves only 12 JP airports, and most of the traffic is for shopping and golf in KR, rather than international connections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_destinations

I think UK feed to AMS for international connections is a more accurate model.

theasianguy · Sat Jul 15, 2017 6:16 am

WPvsMW wrote:
I do find ICN spectacularly, incredibly better than NRT for international connections in Asia for the following reasons:
1) ICN architecture is purpose built for high volume movements of pax, street side and airside. Except the departure lobbies, NRT is cramped everywhere in the terminals, esp. ground level.
2) airport boundary security checks if you have to overnight and reenter the airport
3) no pedestrian connection between NRT terminals 1 and 2 ... unless you like pulling luggage through parking lots, or waiting for the slow shuttle bus, or paying (!) for a rail ticket
4) no connection banks (at least for foreign carriers). slots timings are fixed in historic positions, at least for foreign carriers, much like street addresses in JP
5) your connection may take 2.5 hours, terminal to terminal, and cost USD40 minimum for transport ... NRT to HND. Good luck if you have to change trains at Nippori eki or Tokyo eki with luggage.

Excuse me as I'd like to disagree with points 3 and 4. NRT's schedule has, over the past three years, been fine tuned to specifically serve North America to Asia connections. More than half of the flights on full service carriers arrive and depart between 14:00-19:00 every day. The rest of the day only sees sporadic flights to Europe and Asia. UA/AC/NH, AA/JL, and DL have coordinated schedules to dovetail perfectly to maximize connections. Of course, foreign carriers without a JV hub at NRT are not scheduling for connections, and I don't see how that would be any different for ICN. In fact, KE/OZ schedules at ICN are not as heavily banked, instead spread across the day.

And to #3, Star/SkyTeam/Oneworld have consolidated to their respective terminals and wings at NRT, so you shouldn't really need to be taking the shuttle or carrying your luggage between T1 and T2. I understand it was a royal pain in the ass back when T1S was under construction and alliances were split between terminals, but those days are long gone. Today, Intl -> Intl connections require only a simple security check under the same roof, just as easy as any connection at ICN/TPE/HKG/SIN and infinitely easier than any connection at PEK/PVG/CAN.

However, I do agree with you that ICN has better facilities and a much greater growth potential. In the end, most passengers will purchase tickets primarily based on schedule/convenience. For at least the top 10 NA to Asia cities, I don't see how NRT is any less competitive than ICN.

WPvsMW · Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:46 am

theasianguy wrote:
Excuse me as I'd like to disagree with points 3 and 4.

I think you actually agreed with point 3... there is no pedestrian connection between T1 and T2 at Narita. As for connection banks, it's my personal experience... I'd say an average of 5 hours to connect because some connections require an overnight stay. There's no way around the impact of curfews at NRT and HND. ICN has no curfews.

"Intl -> Intl connections require only a simple security check under the same roof" if you're connecting within the same terminal. It's "PIA time" if you connect T1 to T2. See comments above about no pedestrian connection T1/T2.

Cubsrule · Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:04 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
KE serves something like 30 Japanese airports.

Actually, KE serves only 12 JP airports, and most of the traffic is for shopping and golf in KR, rather than international connections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_destinations

I think UK feed to AMS for international connections is a more accurate model.

I missed a couple of vital words: "Japanese and Korean airports. The larger point remains.

hoons90 · Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:07 pm

I believe that there are close to 30 Japanese destinations served from ICN, just not by KE alone.

theasianguy · Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:31 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
theasianguy wrote:
Excuse me as I'd like to disagree with points 3 and 4.

I think you actually agreed with point 3... there is no pedestrian connection between T1 and T2 at Narita. As for connection banks, it's my personal experience... I'd say an average of 5 hours to connect because some connections require an overnight stay. There's no way around the impact of curfews at NRT and HND. ICN has no curfews.

"Intl -> Intl connections require only a simple security check under the same roof" if you're connecting within the same terminal. It's "PIA time" if you connect T1 to T2. See comments above about no pedestrian connection T1/T2.

As I said, 99% of the transit passengers at NRT do not need to change terminals because alliances have all located under the same roof. You'd have to try REALLY hard to find an itinerary that sells you a connection that requires terminal change.

It must be that the city pair you use happens to be one that requires a long layover. Anyways, here's the list of destinations you can connect to within a comfortable 2-4 hour window.

On Star Alliance:
From North America: HNL, YVR, SEA, SFO, SJC, LAX, YYC, DEN, ORD, IAH, YYZ, IAD, JFK, EWR
To Asia: ITM, NGO, CTS, FUK, ICN, PEK, SHE, PVG, WUH, CTU, CAN, HKG, TPE, MNL, SGN, BKK, KUL, SIN, CGK, DEL

On AA/JL/CX:
From North America: HNL, YVR, LAX, SAN, ORD, DFW, JFK, BOS
To Asia: ITM, NGO, CTS, FUK, PUS, ICN, PEK, PVG, HKG, TPE, KHH, MNL, HAN, SGN, BKK, SIN, CGK

On DL/KE:
From North America: HNL, SEA, PDX, DTW, ATL
To Asia: ICN, PVG, MNL, SIN

I'm not as familiar with KE/OZ schedules, but it's definitely not banked to offer as many combinations Asia->US connections. KE/OZ's North America departures are not banked. For KE, East Coast flights (sans 2nd daily JFK) leave in the morning, cutting off most connections from Mainland China. Likewise, if you're flying from SE Asia to YVR/SEA, you'll arrive early morning, wait 8+ hours, and depart 6-7 PM at night, which is also a badly timed connection. Mainland China does not connect well to OZ's JFK flight, and their retimed SFO/ORD night time flights don't connect to a lot of SE Asia markets. I'm sure in particular cases, there are a lot of well timed connections, but on a macro scale, it's not a better schedule than NRT, at least to the largest markets.

Cubsrule · Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:35 pm

theasianguy wrote:
I'm not as familiar with KE/OZ schedules, but it's definitely not banked to offer as many combinations Asia->US connections. KE/OZ's North America departures are not banked. For KE, East Coast flights (sans 2nd daily JFK) leave in the morning, cutting off most connections from Mainland China. Likewise, if you're flying from SE Asia to YVR/SEA, you'll arrive early morning, wait 8+ hours, and depart 6-7 PM at night, which is also a badly timed connection. Mainland China does not connect well to OZ's JFK flight, and their retimed SFO/ORD night time flights don't connect to a lot of SE Asia markets. I'm sure in particular cases, there are a lot of well timed connections, but on a macro scale, it's not a better schedule than NRT, at least to the largest markets.

Generally the KE connections to and from the east coast of the US are not great. Frequently the first flight you can catch westbound is the terminator, which leads to long connections and late arrivals. NRT (both alliances) generally has shorter connections in my experience.

BuildingMyBento · Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:20 pm

WPvsMW wrote:

I do find ICN spectacularly, incredibly better than NRT for international connections in Asia for the following reasons:
1) ICN architecture is purpose built for high volume movements of pax, street side and airside. Except the departure lobbies, NRT is cramped everywhere in the terminals, esp. ground level.
2) airport boundary security checks if you have to overnight and reenter the airport
3) no pedestrian connection between NRT terminals 1 and 2 ... unless you like pulling luggage through parking lots, or waiting for the slow shuttle bus, or paying (!) for a rail ticket
4) no connection banks (at least for foreign carriers). slots timings are fixed in historic positions, at least for foreign carriers, much like street addresses in JP
5) your connection may take 2.5 hours, terminal to terminal, and cost USD40 minimum for transport ... NRT to HND. Good luck if you have to change trains at Nippori eki or Tokyo eki with luggage.

1) From curbside until security, I don't find that NRT and ICN vary much.

But then, security throughout Japanese airports is probably the most carefree in the world (from the passengers perspective). I never feel anxious passing through it in Japan...also, there's plenty of space for the passengers, and security staff treat people like individuals, not like cattle.

ICN's security area is rather cramped, and once you pass through it, there's barely any space to collect your belongings. Then, you have to deal with the mad rush four meters away for passport control.

I've used J and F security queues at both airports, but in general, I don't quibble about those.

2) NRT no longer has ID checks to get into the airport.

3) WRT NRT, The rail line isn't operated by the airport, so it's much less likely that it would be free. The shuttle bus isn't VERY frequent, but it does have multiple departures per hour. Can't say the walk between the three NRT terminals has ever been too much of a slog, but that's why one learns how to skillfully pack.

Either way, even if your transfer is in one terminal only (whether at NRT or ICN), it could still be a bit of a walk.

4) As an example, the mid-afternoon is when a number UA/DL flights head back to the US. NRT doesn't have 24 hour flights, so that does affect flight times, too...(another example, SYD isn't 24 hours, so airlines have to find the appropriate slots)

5) $40, eh? That is one price. But one can also do it for between $15-20 (depending on exchange rates, and stopping downtown, of course). It's a long ride either way, of that there is no doubt. But GMP is mostly useless for international flights, whereas NRT/HND have a decent selection of both.

WPvsMW · Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:23 pm

@BuildingMyBento, cubsrule, and theasianguy ... agree with your points, which are about the present. My reflections are more about the future:

1) NRT and HND cannot expand, waiting lists for slots, no room for more runways, curfews. Present-day NRT and HND are much, much better than Occupation-era HND and the Angry Farmers/SWAT-bus-era NRT infrastructure. The JP transport ministry should have stuck with the original plan for a FIVE RUNWAY airport in Tomisato.... but imperial politics become involved, and we have NRT as the result ... frozen in time.

2) The connecting banks, certainly the ST connecting banks in the new T2 (ST terminal), at ICN will improve. UA/OZ/*A would be crazy not to follow suit in T1.

3) If you accept another 2 hours on slower trains and herding your luggage, yes, NRT-HND can cost about USD 15, and there are plenty of locals who take that option, compared to using NEX or Skyliner. So, if the train skeds are perfect, NRT-HND takes about 2.0 to 5.5 hours; but... train skeds are "perfect" only about twice an hour... so add an hour. In comparison, AREX from ICN to GMP is about 30 min. and cost USD 3 (W3500), but even better, KTX (bullet train) now serves T1 and will serve T2. Will Shinkansen service ever come to NRT or HND?

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