This, in my eyes, is a very interesting topic, but what do you guys think will happen in the next 50 years of commercial aviation for the United States?

What mergers will we see?
Increased service to what other parts of the world?
What airlines will be on top?
Will we see more US carriers serving far-reaching destination or more foreign carriers coming to the US?
Fleets?
New startup airlines making headway into the market? (spare metropolitan airways)
Etc.

This is just a speculative topic, based on current trends that we see in the aviation market.

I'd love to hear what you guys have to say.

Matteo

On a more simple note, I think there will be very little variety or diversity in the U.S. industry. Maybe a total of 5 or so major airlines and a mix of A32X neo/Boeing 7X7 max aircraft that are ultra-efficient

More service to Africa, ME, and SE Asia. Smaller size jets over all, think about 778-range, 767-size aircraft.

If the so called hyperloop really does come to fruition and meets or exceeds the so called hype-perhaps that may put the airlines at disadvantage or even make them obsolete (at least domestically-perhaps they would continue to fly pax from US to Asia and Europe with hyperloop feeding the Int'l gateways in like NY, Chicago, SF etc).

I think it will grow more modestly than most expect.

Virtual conferencing and the internet have really taken a bite out of business travel. As this tech matures into VR we'll see the need for biz travel to drop further.

JetBlue/Alaska/Hawaiian merge.

Spirit/Frontier/G4 do likewise.

On the "hardware" side: Twinjets, 2 pilots, non-supersonic, using the same fuel as today's engines.

In short, nothing revolutionary.

Global warming, at its current pace, could make it impossible 40-50 years from now to operate a number of airports in the USA like JFK, LGA, EWR, SFO, and others close to sea level.
Oil prices will likely go up massively in the next 50 years, likely making air travel too expensive for all but the richest.
The middle class is in decline, fewer working, incomes collapsing, so less money for travel. I suspect that air travel numbers will plateau in the next decade in part due to these changes. International travel will level out with more use of teleconferencing to hold down costs of businesses.
Aircraft will continue to be more efficient. I suspect 50 years from now almost all current model aircraft will be out of service, maybe a few in museums. The Hyperspace aircraft may exist but be very expensive to travel on but at speeds not seen since the Concorde. Air freight will like stay around but also leveling out due to costs vs. higher speed sea freighters.

Will we see improved service? Like complimentary meals and no checked baggage fees?

Self driving cars will ruin destinations less than 12 hours drive time as people will be able to sleep overnight while the car drives. Cars will also have seats that look more like first class with full recline.

Thus this will eliminate a lot of short hop flying and proportionally most will be over three hour flights.

ltbewr wrote:

Global warming, at its current pace, could make it impossible 40-50 years from now to operate a number of airports in the USA like JFK, LGA, EWR, SFO, and others close to sea level.

The sea levels have been observed to rise about 2.5 mm per year lately. If continued for 50 years, that would put the sea 1.25 meters higher. Wikipedia says the highest reasonable estimate for sea level rise is 2 meters. Very few airports are within 6 feet of sea level, and for the very few where this is a concern, it would be much cheaper to raise the runways that to build an all new airport and infrastructure. Global warming sucks, but I don't think it will close many airports.

kitplane01 wrote:

ltbewr wrote:

Global warming, at its current pace, could make it impossible 40-50 years from now to operate a number of airports in the USA like JFK, LGA, EWR, SFO, and others close to sea level.

The sea levels have been observed to rise about 2.5 mm per year lately. If continued for 50 years, that would put the sea 1.25 meters higher. Wikipedia says the highest reasonable estimate for sea level rise is 2 meters. Very few airports are within 6 feet of sea level, and for the very few where this is a concern, it would be much cheaper to raise the runways that to build an all new airport and infrastructure. Global warming sucks, but I don't think it will close many airports.

Sorry, but your maths is off by a decimal point. At the rate you indicate, the change in sea level would be 0.125 meters (12.5 centimeters)...which just drives your point home even more efficiently.

50 years is way too big a timespan to make any meaningful predictions. Look at it this way, 50 years ago we weren't even on the moon.

Southwest flying the 737-1000 extreme and being the launch customer of the 737-3000 peak- still making excuses as why they can't and won't fly to Hawaii and wondering why AS is the premier airline in California. BTW all the airlines that modeled themselves off of WN are flying the most advanced wide bodies and making a mark in aviation....oh wait that is now...WestJet ordering 10 787s......

imperialairways wrote:

50 years is way too big a timespan to make any meaningful predictions. Look at it this way, 50 years ago we weren't even on the moon.

But still closer to it than we are now...

Don't expect major innovation anytime soon. It's all about efficiency and saving pennies now.

dc9northwest wrote:

imperialairways wrote:

50 years is way too big a timespan to make any meaningful predictions. Look at it this way, 50 years ago we weren't even on the moon.

But still closer to it than we are now...

Don't expect major innovation anytime soon. It's all about efficiency and saving pennies now.

I, too, expect few revolutionary developments in technological development, but there may very likely be a plethora of disruptive developments in other areas that will have a decisive effect on the way technology is used. Who, in the early 90s would, or indeed could have predicted the power of google and amazon? The technological groundwork for which was laid down decades before. Sometimes old tech may well become "new" tech when used differently; such different use may well be achieved by incremental steps of evolution instead of revolution. Electric vehicles are not a new invention, but the evolution of electricity storage may well make such vehicle a mass market appliance.

Ah, nice let's speculate so we know what definitely won't come true

("I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943)

Hyperloop is indeed a very interesting development. Perhaps it will replace air travel within the 2.500-3.000miles mark (so basically the 48states). Intercontinental travel will still use some kind of air travel, I think we will see mega hubs, cities increasing in size all over the world, so we will see a 1.000 passenger mark. I think we will see pilotless aircraft operating all over the world.
There will still be a need and a want to travel and experience for yourself even with the benefits of VR, perhaps business travel will decline because it is much more efficient to do it by video conferencing, but for the bonding part, you still need to meet in real life.

SuseJ772 wrote:

Self driving cars will ruin destinations less than 12 hours drive time as people will be able to sleep overnight while the car drives. Cars will also have seats that look more like first class with full recline.

Thus this will eliminate a lot of short hop flying and proportionally most will be over three hour flights.

Yes and No. Depends if your on Business and time is valuable, you'll still fly or be getting the train. Same as short flights going into hub airports.

Aviation has become lackluster and lacks the dreams and innovation that drove the industry in the 1960s and 70's We've become content to wring a few percentages of efficiency out of existing twin jet designs. For the first time, we move slower than we used to. A few like Richard Branson see hypersonic and space transport as a vision of the future. I would predict-

1. A viable SST that can transport hundreds of passengers at Mach 2+ over long distances.

2. Hydrogen or other alternative fuels technology that provide cheap, renewable, and carbon-neutral emissions.

3. Better integration of air and surface transport that will link city centers, airports, and important O&D markets. For example, true high speed rail between WAS-NYC-BOS with stops at city center and the key airports, eliminating the need for short haul shuttle flights and better connecting the airports to the markets they serve.

A carbon tax on air transport is conceivable, and this could switch the current frequency model back to larger aircraft on some city pairs. Infrastructure investments will continually be underfunded. General aviation will be pushed out of high traffic airports.

Carry-on fees for all the majors for anyone not in F/J...fees just to get mileage credit...fees for breathing the air on board...you know where I'm going.

I also think that the DHS will ban so many things from being in carry-on or checked baggage, that it'll finally trigger a public backlash towards TSA and DHS that their paranoia and random abuse of the flying public will give way to common sense in airline travel. Oh wait, that's a pipe dream...

Maybe AA and UA will decide to take the A350 after all

planespotter20 wrote:

This, in my eyes, is a very interesting topic, but what do you guys think will happen in the next 50 years of commercial aviation for the United States?

When you arrive at the airport you will be sedated and loaded onto the airplane in a casket-like box "to avoid terrorism" and fit 700 passengers in an 7R7-900ER.

Delta will be negotiating hard, scavenging 787 and A350 fleets all over to drive the best deal.

I think you guys are all missing the next and most likely big thing. On demand air service as oppesed to scheduled service. Think more along the lines like UBER.

Fifty years from now JetBlue will still be debating on whether to dump their E-Jets and fly to the Midwest or not, Southwest will still be debating on whether to fly to Hawaii or not and when to retire their oldest -700's, United will still have a regional jet fetish and be two separate companies in one, Delta will be taking their first 787 and A350, and American will still be peddling credit cards on their flights.

In short, nothing innovative.

There will be numerous threads on a.net speculating when DL will retire the 717.

And there will be an airline owned an run by a.netters flying 757 from Europe to Hawaii.
Sorry couldn't resist

If High Speed Rail ever gets off the ground, then it will surely effect regional connections like:

Houston/Dallas/Austin/San Antonio
Seattle/Portland
DC/Phildelphia/New York/Boston

Amtrak are planning on introducing new trains on the North East corridor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH-3FsmU6KQ

Mind you the way things are going with California's HSR project, it might still be under construction in 50 years from now.

Engines are going to get more efficient, planes are going to get cheaper to operate. Add some more manufactures to compete with the Airbus and Boeing and the frames themselves wont cost as much. Those costs will keep aviation competitive with the very expensive and capital intensive rail projects.

I think the trend to larger/fewer airlines operating at consolidated airports will reverse it self. There will be more point to point flying from secondary cities/airports. Lots of innovation to be had in the sub-100/ sub-50 seat space.

FlyUSAir wrote:

Fifty years from now JetBlue will still be debating on whether to dump their E-Jets and fly to the Midwest or not, Southwest will still be debating on whether to fly to Hawaii or not and when to retire their oldest -700's, United will still have a regional jet fetish and be two separate companies in one, Delta will be taking their first 787 and A350, and American will still be peddling credit cards on their flights.

In short, nothing innovative.

oh wait no.. I got it....Southwest will buy JetBlue say they are excited about flying their fleet then turn around and lease everything to Delta.

BMWdrvr75 wrote:

FlyUSAir wrote:

Fifty years from now JetBlue will still be debating on whether to dump their E-Jets and fly to the Midwest or not, Southwest will still be debating on whether to fly to Hawaii or not and when to retire their oldest -700's, United will still have a regional jet fetish and be two separate companies in one, Delta will be taking their first 787 and A350, and American will still be peddling credit cards on their flights.

In short, nothing innovative.

oh wait no.. I got it....Southwest will buy JetBlue say they are excited about flying their fleet then turn around and lease everything to Delta.

Yes yes yes!

imperialairways wrote:

dc9northwest wrote:

Don't expect major innovation anytime soon. It's all about efficiency and saving pennies now.

I, too, expect few revolutionary developments in technological development, but there may very likely be a plethora of disruptive developments in other areas that will have a decisive effect on the way technology is used.

I think that's an excellent way of looking at it. Here's a list of things that might disrupt airlines in the next 50 years ...

1) Self driving cars make short hops less likely
2) Carbon tax makes flying more expensive (countered by generally more efficient airplanes)
3) Virtual Reality makes business communication easier
4) Chinese economy continues to grow fast, which causes a Chinese company to break the duopoly
5) Changes to technology make airport security easier (better databases, better scanners, etc)
6) Private pilots become even less common, which changes the hiring of commercial pilots
7) Union busting in the US finally effects airlines
8) ????

50 years is a long time.With all the research going into electrical energy storage I would suggest multiple breakthroughs over that time scale.As such I can envisage hybrid aircraft of long/medium haul and possibly pure electric for short haul.
Noise and pollution at airports would cease to be an issue.Jet fuel will probably be 50% 'grown' which (I am advised) also would eliminate vapour trails/cloud formation which is now being seen as a climate change issue.
There is no doubt in my mind that 'flying' will become public enemy no1 regarding climate change.
Massive changes are occurring in general power generation especially in Europe.The success of Tesla is forcing all car companies to 'go electric'.That just leaves shipping and flying.Its therefore clear where the spotlight will fall.

I think jet fuel will be mostly plant based by then

Electric airplanes? I can't predict whether battery technology will progress enough, but if it does, then surely we will move away from jet fuel...

That said, they won't feel much different than current aircraft. Same terrible 3-3 configuration short haul and 3-X-3 long haul.

All the US airlines would have gone though Chapter 11 several times each......

Most technology has gone through an exponential process the last 50 years, except aviation. It's basically the same as 50 years ago - with incremental improvements in engine technology. This makes it very difficult to predict the future of aviation. The year 2067 seems very far into the future. I think we'll see new mergers, we'll see new startups. Maybe the introduction of electric aircraft in the 50-150 seat range, filling the role of regional airlines. I predict most mainline aircraft and widebodies will still be fueled by A-1 or a combination of A-1 and electricity. Brand new airplanes today, such as A320neo and 737 MAX will have the same role as the DC-9 and 737-200 has today, as package freighters and filling niche roles. Some markets will be slowly filled by high speed rail or hyperloop type of transportation. The roads will be packed with self-driving vehicles, mostly electric, and driving on your own will require a special type of certification. We'll see much better efficiency in the airline route schedules due to improvements in AI (neural nets) predicting the market and logistics. This is already happening in other sectors such as electrical power management in server farms with gains of up to 40%.

If airlines faced a future that included a sustained carbon tax on fuel, would that tend to benefit hub and spoke operations with a lower fuel cost per seat mile, or direct city connections with fewer hops per trip?

Assuming the answer is hub and spoke, and this does not happen in time to save the current round of VLAs, can the 777 and A350 grow to meet the needs of a new hub and spoke system, or would there be a clean sheet VLA started in 20-30 years?

TerminalD wrote:

planespotter20 wrote:

This, in my eyes, is a very interesting topic, but what do you guys think will happen in the next 50 years of commercial aviation for the United States?

When you arrive at the airport you will be sedated and loaded onto the airplane in a casket-like box "to avoid terrorism" and fit 700 passengers in an 7R7-900ER.

I've often joked about this. In the future there will be no flight attendants....just anesthesiologists.

N62NA wrote:

On the "hardware" side: Twinjets, 2 pilots, non-supersonic, using the same fuel as today's engines.

In short, nothing revolutionary.

In the sept. 4 issue of aviation week & space technology in the future nobody may be in the cockpit. The path to pilotless airliners.very interesting reading.