What's Going On At RDU - Part 1

ScrantonUSC · Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:46 pm

I think RDU-SAN will be the next addition for RDU, and I think it will be either be AS or DL. Besides AS having the SEA flight, VX(AS) just announced a daily from SFO, so RDU is definitely on their radar. If it's DL, then it would be a huge statement on what they envision for RDU.

SAN-ORF isn't surprising considering the huge naval bases in both metros.

Rafale9312 · Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:47 pm

SANFan wrote:
Regarding RDU-SAN, a sentence or 2 of background. It appears that (according to 3Q16 DOT traffic figures, Table 6), RDU is certainly in the top 4 unserved (domestic) destinations from Lindbergh Field. (And that includes the #1 unserved destination, DCA, which cannot see nonstop service without another Beyond Perimeter hearing via Congress...) IND-SAN service will begin this summer, so TPA and RDU are essentially tied at #s2 & 3. (Interestingly, disregarding DCA & IND, the highest unserved market from SAN is currently the wildcard, ORF!)

I know there are incentives in place at SDIA for new domestic service -- not too unlike RDU's -- so I imagine we will see both RDU and TPA sooner rather than later. At the present time, AS and WN continue in a competitive skirmish to lead in the # of nonstop destinations from SAN -- currently WN stands at 26 and AS is at 21; by early 2018, WN will offer 30, and AAG will be up to 29! As of now, WN has occasionally slipped (MKE service apparently being dropped at the end of this summer) and offers 3 seasonal routes while AAG has dropped no routes from SAN in years, and offers only 2 seasonal (ski) routes.

If I had to guess, I'd say AS is more likely to jump on RDU first (the only service they offer at RDU right now is SEA and I expect a second route would be nice, and soon, and of course at some point at least PDX and SJC will also be added.) The RDU-SAN route would, IMO, comfortably support 1 daily nonstop (and it should be year-round) so I think the first to jump will have the route to themselves for a good while. I don't believe WN is as likely to make the first move and I would be very surprised to see DL do any sort of p-2-p flying from SAN. (WN has a focus operation in SAN but not in RDU while DL is just the opposite; but as we all know, anything can happen in modern aviation...)

bb

Interesting background info, didn't think RDU would be in the top 4 unserved destinations from SAN. I'm somewhat inclined to agree that AS/VX will serve RDU-SAN first because shortly after the announcement of VX's SFO to RDU route, a higher-up from AAG (I forget who specifically) essentially said to the Business Journal that if the SFO route does well, that they will add another destination from RDU, and since the next logical destination after SAN is PDX, which has only around 85 PDEW to RDU compared to 110+ PDEW (don't know exact figures off the top of my head), I can only assume they're talking about adding SAN, because LAX is well-served from RDU, one of those flights being AA with an AS codeshare.

ScrantonUSC · Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:55 pm

According to a recent (3-6 months ago) article that I saw, RDU-SAN has 136 PDEW, which was the #1 market without a nonstop from RDU.

cessna2 · Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:32 pm

If I recall jetBlue had announced a 6th daily flight to BOS but never started it.

SANFan · Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:03 pm

ScrantonUSC wrote:
According to a recent (3-6 months ago) article that I saw, RDU-SAN has 136 PDEW, which was the #1 market without a nonstop from RDU.

Yes, the DOT stats (for 3Q16) show 133 as the PDEW figure so all the data seems to agree. And I believe that is a viable number for a successful route. Of course this would have to be served with either an AS 737 or a VX A320, from both SAN and PDX. AAG will have more 737s coming on line in 2018, but I think VX has planes available this year, with the A321s arriving.

This new service, especially with it being incentivized on both ends of the route, could very well start sooner rather than later.. I continue to rank the potential cx to start this nonstop as 1) AS, 2) WN & 3) DL (highly unlikely.)

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see DL do some expansion out of SAN -- to anywhere besides their hubs -- given that they have a good-sized operation at SAN (36 daily departures this summer.) But I just don't see it happening.

bb

11725Flyer · Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:29 pm

SANFan wrote:

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see DL do some expansion out of SAN -- to anywhere besides their hubs -- given that they have a good-sized operation at SAN (36 daily departures this summer.) But I just don't see it happening.

bb

Totally agree.

cvgComair · Fri Jun 02, 2017 3:49 am

RDU is in bold in Delta's June Sky Magazine! Hopefully they start calling RDU a hub!

ERJ170 · Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:54 am

I think DL would announce SAN before AS. AS will probably next announce a 2nd SEA before a new destination...

AVLAirlineFreq · Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:50 pm

When you look at the lineup of destinations Alaska will have at SAN by the end of the year, I can see AS announcing SAN-RDU before DL. AS was in SEA-RDU even before DL (whose service doesn't even start until next week), and RDU-SAN would be another opportunity for AS to find a spot "between the elephant's toes," so to speak.

birdbrainz · Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:53 pm

jetpixx wrote:
Also, I believe I have heard AA will have 777 flights to LHR briefly, but has that upgauge been cancelled - or will that actually be the case. I have found conflicting information.

I saw an AA777 parked at RDU and the gate sign said RDU-LHR, so it's already happening.

rajincajun01 · Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:21 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
I think DL would announce SAN before AS. AS will probably next announce a 2nd SEA before a new destination...

There isn't enough demand for three daily flights to SEA at RDU. AS will add PDX before a second SEA. DL will absolutely add LAS before SAN with WN pulling out of the route.

hockyluv21 · Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:22 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
I think DL would announce SAN before AS. AS will probably next announce a 2nd SEA before a new destination...

There isn't enough demand for three daily flights to SEA at RDU. AS will add PDX before a second SEA. DL will absolutely add LAS before SAN with WN pulling out of the route.

WN isn't pulling out of LAS, I believe; it sounds like it might've been a scheduling error.

ERJ170 · Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:28 pm

Anyone think Delta will announce a new route on Monday when a Seattle and Nashville starts?

Cebo29 · Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:21 am

Not likely

ERJ170 · Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:55 am

Looks like Delta might be testing SJU.... Sat only service on Dec 23, 30, and Jan 6.. 738 aircraft.... last year 2016 it was LAS.. this year 2017 SJU.. year before 2015 it was NAS... thoughts?

MAH4546 · Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:49 am

ERJ170 wrote:
Looks like Delta might be testing SJU.... Sat only service on Dec 23, 30, and Jan 6.. 738 aircraft.... last year 2016 it was LAS.. this year 2017 SJU.. year before 2015 it was NAS... thoughts?

I wouldn't call it testing. It's using an otherwise parked plane in a holiday market. LAS was never tested, DL ads a ton of LAS flying for CES all over, even NRT and CDG.

San Juan is in a sad state and a dying market. Don't see it supporting RDU service. NAS and PUJ are where people flock these days.

Noise · Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:32 am

MAH4546 wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Looks like Delta might be testing SJU.... Sat only service on Dec 23, 30, and Jan 6.. 738 aircraft.... last year 2016 it was LAS.. this year 2017 SJU.. year before 2015 it was NAS... thoughts?

I wouldn't call it testing. It's using an otherwise parked plane in a holiday market. LAS was never tested, DL ads a ton of LAS flying for CES all over, even NRT and CDG.

San Juan is in a sad state and a dying market. Don't see it supporting RDU service. NAS and PUJ are where people flock these days.

Why did DL cancel RDU-NAS?

goldorak · Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:59 am

The DL/AF CDG flight seems indeed to work very well. I flew it again this week (1st time since the upgauge to 763) and it was packed (full in J and overbooked by 6 seats in Y).

MonAmQB · Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:44 am

ERJ170 wrote:
Looks like Delta might be testing SJU.... Sat only service on Dec 23, 30, and Jan 6.. 738 aircraft.... last year 2016 it was LAS.. this year 2017 SJU.. year before 2015 it was NAS... thoughts?

I tried a dummy booking. I could only see the flight with miles and couldn't even see it with cash. But even with miles, it showed "not available".

ScrantonUSC · Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:55 pm

[*]Allegiant announced 2 new nonstops.
RDU-CVG (2 weekly)
RDU-SJU Puerto Rico (Seasonal - 2 weekly)

ScrantonUSC · Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:03 pm

What drives the low-cost travel from Cincy to the triangle? I would expect business and a size-able chunk of native Ohioans that now live here, but I would never have guessed there would be demand for a bare bones low cost airline.

jplatts · Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:08 pm

ScrantonUSC wrote:
What drives the low-cost travel from Cincy to the triangle? I would expect business and a size-able chunk of native Ohioans that now live here, but I would never have guessed there would be demand for a bare bones low cost airline.

Is Allegiant doing the CVG-RDU flights to get Cincinnati-area vacation travelers to the North Carolina coast?

cvgComair · Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:28 pm

ScrantonUSC wrote:
What drives the low-cost travel from Cincy to the triangle? I would expect business and a size-able chunk of native Ohioans that now live here, but I would never have guessed there would be demand for a bare bones low cost airline.

Frontier has publicly announced intentions to capture low cost business travelers from CVG, I have to wonder if Allegiant is trying to do the same at CVG. While their reliability may be poor across most of their network, they are pretty reliable out of CVG since they have pilots, FA's, crew, and planes based out of Cincinnati. They now have or have announced flights from Cincinnati to Newark, Baltimore, Boston, Denver, Austin, New Orleans, Los Angles and Raleigh/Durham, which are all large business markets.

rajincajun01 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:38 pm

Two flights a week doesn't help business travelers much. Would like to hear how their MSY bookings are doing.

casinterest · Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:14 pm

jplatts wrote:
ScrantonUSC wrote:
What drives the low-cost travel from Cincy to the triangle? I would expect business and a size-able chunk of native Ohioans that now live here, but I would never have guessed there would be demand for a bare bones low cost airline.

Is Allegiant doing the CVG-RDU flights to get Cincinnati-area vacation travelers to the North Carolina coast?

What is the schedule of the flights?
I am guessing this will look more like CVG-RDU---Other city(SJU/MSY)

rajincajun01 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:48 pm

casinterest wrote:
jplatts wrote:
ScrantonUSC wrote:
What drives the low-cost travel from Cincy to the triangle? I would expect business and a size-able chunk of native Ohioans that now live here, but I would never have guessed there would be demand for a bare bones low cost airline.

Is Allegiant doing the CVG-RDU flights to get Cincinnati-area vacation travelers to the North Carolina coast?

What is the schedule of the flights?
I am guessing this will look more like CVG-RDU---Other city(SJU/MSY)

Thurs and Sunday.
CVG-RDU 1300-1415
RDU-CVG 1540-1700

ALTF4 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:55 pm

goldorak wrote:
The DL/AF CDG flight seems indeed to work very well. I flew it again this week (1st time since the upgauge to 763) and it was packed (full in J and overbooked by 6 seats in Y).

That's good and bad. I flew it the week before you, and on the way out, J had 5 seats empty (with 6 people upgraded from Y - to their surprise, as they weren't on full Y fares). On the way back, 18 (!!) empty J seats. I was hoping to use this for my global upgrade certificates with the wife - but seems like it might be hit or miss on that.

cessna2 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:43 pm

RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

rajincajun01 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:00 pm

cessna2 wrote:
RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

RDU will never be a DL hub, just a focus city. No need for another east coast hub for them.

cessna2 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:30 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

RDU will never be a DL hub, just a focus city. No need for another east coast hub for them.

It will become a Tier 1 hub January 1st. Confirmed by station management. I won't give out anymore info than that, but don't be so quick to say "never".

jbs2886 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:36 pm

cessna2 wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

RDU will never be a DL hub, just a focus city. No need for another east coast hub for them.

It will become a Tier 1 hub January 1st. Confirmed by station management. I won't give out anymore info than that, but don't be so quick to say "never".

What does that mean? Saying it will become a hub is a lot of information, but are you saying there will be a substantial expansion?

AirportRival · Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:52 pm

cessna2 wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

RDU will never be a DL hub, just a focus city. No need for another east coast hub for them.

It will become a Tier 1 hub January 1st. Confirmed by station management. I won't give out anymore info than that, but don't be so quick to say "never".

I'm curious what this means too. This is the first I've heard about hubs being ranked in tiers. What are the parameters for designating hubs in a tier? How many tiers does Delta have? And quite frankly, Why are they waiting until January 1st to designate it a hub? Connecting passengers through RDU won't be much different then than it is now so why the wait?

AVLAirlineFreq · Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:14 pm

ScrantonUSC wrote:
What drives the low-cost travel from Cincy to the triangle? I would expect business and a size-able chunk of native Ohioans that now live here, but I would never have guessed there would be demand for a bare bones low cost airline.

It would definitely be bare bones business travel if it exists.

AVLAirlineFreq · Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:15 pm

It's somewhat interesting to note that at least for the first time that I noticed it, in this month's Sky magazine RDU is marked in bold as a hub? focus city? on the system map.

Midwestindy · Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:17 pm

cessna2 wrote:
RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

Not saying it wont happen but this leads to a few questions:
1. Why would DL create another hub in the east, when it already has LGA/JFK/DTW/ATL/CVG/BOS?
2. What is a tier 1 hub?
3. Why would DL take connecting flow from ATL?
4. Is there a need for RDU to become a hub?
5. Why wait til January 1?

I know I already said this, but ATL is pretty close to RDU which makes a hub in RDU unnecessary...

ERJ170 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:41 pm

RDU-ATL is 356nm and RDU-NYC is 427nm... BOS-JFK is 185nm... close enough

Midwestindy · Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:53 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
RDU-ATL is 356nm and RDU-NYC is 427nm... BOS-JFK is 185nm... close enough

apples to oranges comparison...

Rafale9312 · Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:56 pm

Based on previous rumors, a reasonable speculation for a DL at RDU would be that it will be no bigger than the current BOS hub - mainly existing for the local business travelers, and throwing a couple destinations in the Caribbean or Mexico for leisure travelers, and possibly a London or Amsterdam flight to give additional feed for VS or KLM, respectively. At the absolute best, RDU could provide some relief for ATL, but I doubt we would ever grow to match not even a quarter of the flights that they have. That being said, at one time, I saw discussions on this very site of the possibility of around 100+ DL flights a day.

ERJ170 · Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:25 am

I too thought RDU was supposed to be at or around the 100 flight status. They have the space to expand to that status with their current move. I believe there are a few more gates open on the D Concourse... hub status would just mean Delta would be offering more connections from the flight being sent through, I think.. so I could potentially see a few more destinations but probably more frequency on larger RJ and a few more mainline thrown in.. or perhaps C-Series.. who knows.. I guess we will see in January

rajincajun01 · Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:17 am

The question no one has asked is what percentage of DL passengers are connecting at RDU?

cessna2 · Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:54 am

Rafale9312 wrote:
Based on previous rumors, a reasonable speculation for a DL at RDU would be that it will be no bigger than the current BOS hub - mainly existing for the local business travelers, and throwing a couple destinations in the Caribbean or Mexico for leisure travelers, and possibly a London or Amsterdam flight to give additional feed for VS or KLM, respectively. At the absolute best, RDU could provide some relief for ATL, but I doubt we would ever grow to match not even a quarter of the flights that they have. That being said, at one time, I saw discussions on this very site of the possibility of around 100+ DL flights a day.

I'd say this is probably the scenario we'll see. RDU will never another ATL. I think more so around what MEM was right before the announcement that it was closing. BOS is ranked as a Tier 1 hub. I don't know how many tiers there are or how each hub is ranked. I'm just sharing what was shared publicly with me by RDU management, when I flew out last week.

11725Flyer · Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:59 am

cessna2 wrote:
RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

Don't get carried away. RDU will never be a hub for DL because ATL is so close. Rather, it's developing into something like CVG - an O&D station.

kotoka · Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:16 am

11725Flyer wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

Don't get carried away. RDU will never be a hub for DL because ATL is so close. Rather, it's developing into something like CVG - an O&D station.

And is CVG not a hub?

11725Flyer · Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:25 am

kotoka wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
RDU to become Delta's 11th Domestic Hub. Congrats RDU!

Don't get carried away. RDU will never be a hub for DL because ATL is so close. Rather, it's developing into something like CVG - an O&D station.

And is CVG not a hub?

Nope. Not even mentioned in DL press releases.

Delta offers customers more than 15,000 daily flights, with key hubs and markets including Amsterdam, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York-JFK and LaGuardia, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Tokyo-Narita.

http://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/doc ... y-2017.pdf

cvgComair · Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:48 am

11725Flyer wrote:
kotoka wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:

Don't get carried away. RDU will never be a hub for DL because ATL is so close. Rather, it's developing into something like CVG - an O&D station.

And is CVG not a hub?

Nope. Not even mentioned in DL press releases.

Delta offers customers more than 15,000 daily flights, with key hubs and markets including Amsterdam, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York-JFK and LaGuardia, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Tokyo-Narita.

http://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/doc ... y-2017.pdf

CVG is a hub, but it is not a "key hub". It is still listed in numerous places and was never publicly dehubbed like MEM.

http://news.delta.com/global-network
http://dl.fltmaps.com/en
https://www.delta.com/content/dam/delta ... te-map.pdf

Not only by DL, but other recent news sources identify CVG as a hub:

http://airlinegeeks.com/2017/06/14/the- ... nnati-cvg/
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/2 ... /97348262/
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/b ... /96183514/
http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/n ... t-cvg.html
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/2 ... /99186062/

No, CVG is not a large connecting hub like it used to be, but the schedule is still highly banked and about 15% of the traffic DL carriers is connecting. However, RDU and CVG are growing more and more similar, while CVG still is larger, both are mainly O&D. That does not mean CVG is not a hub for Delta and it also does not mean RDU will not become a hub for Delta. I doubt RDU will ever see over 100 daily flights, but its certainly going to be an important station for Delta like CVG has been.

AirportRival · Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:00 am

cessna2 wrote:
Rafale9312 wrote:
Based on previous rumors, a reasonable speculation for a DL at RDU would be that it will be no bigger than the current BOS hub - mainly existing for the local business travelers, and throwing a couple destinations in the Caribbean or Mexico for leisure travelers, and possibly a London or Amsterdam flight to give additional feed for VS or KLM, respectively. At the absolute best, RDU could provide some relief for ATL, but I doubt we would ever grow to match not even a quarter of the flights that they have. That being said, at one time, I saw discussions on this very site of the possibility of around 100+ DL flights a day.

I'd say this is probably the scenario we'll see. RDU will never another ATL. I think more so around what MEM was right before the announcement that it was closing. BOS is ranked as a Tier 1 hub. I don't know how many tiers there are or how each hub is ranked. I'm just sharing what was shared publicly with me by RDU management, when I flew out last week.

I'm still curious where you are getting these tier designations from. Do you have an actual source that explains what tier the hubs are or are you just making this up because it makes it sound more official?

Noise · Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:03 am

RDU is now "bolded" in DL's June inflight magazine's Route Map while BOS is not.

Just saying. It doesn't mean much but the "optics" are good.

rajincajun01 · Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:04 am

In April RDU had a total of 1,087 connecting passengers. That is down 26% from 2016. Even if every connecting passenger was DL's, that means less than 2% of DL's passengers are making connections.

Q · Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:46 am

I read Routeonline news that Delta will be flying non stop RDU-SJU every Saturdays on a B738.

Q

cessna2 · Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:56 am

11725Flyer wrote:
kotoka wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:

Don't get carried away. RDU will never be a hub for DL because ATL is so close. Rather, it's developing into something like CVG - an O&D station.

And is CVG not a hub?

Nope. Not even mentioned in DL press releases.

Delta offers customers more than 15,000 daily flights, with key hubs and markets including Amsterdam, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York-JFK and LaGuardia, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Tokyo-Narita.

http://s1.q4cdn.com/231238688/files/doc ... y-2017.pdf

You should look at Delta's interactive route map. CVG and BOS are both labeled as hubs.

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