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SANFan
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:03 am

Zoom flew their 763 between SAN and LGW (briefly) with no (or very little) penalty. They did NOT, however, fly any cargo; for fuel, pax and baggage, their version of the 763 did just fine.

I have no idea if DE is into cargo or not; if not, then I suspect they will not have much, if any, in the way of payload penalties either.

What I'm most curious about is the business market between SAN and Germany/Europe/points East. My expectation was that LH would have almost daily service between SAN and FRA and therefore offer business travelers a very competitive option to BA and OneWorld. I know there will be plenty of leisure/vacation/vfr traffic to keep Condor happy, but I don't know about the business travelers.

BTW, I'm seeing a discrepancy of the announced service level for SAN; some places report twice weekly, others, 3x week.

One last thing: I would be quite surprised if the SAN-FRA service doesn't go year-'round pretty quickly!

bb
 
SpaceshipDC10
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:21 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 49):
2017 will make 34yrs since MSY had schedule tatl service, to be precise.

Thanks, I knew it was sometimes during the first half of the '80s.
 
727LOVER
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:37 am

With all the new destinations to the USA from DE recently, I wonder if they would give SRQ another look.   


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Is this MSY's first ever transatlantic flight? Could have sworn National tried MSY-Paris
 
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Ytraveller
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:41 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 52):
Is this MSY's first ever transatlantic flight? Could have sworn National tried MSY-Paris

Didn't BA fly LGW-MSY-MEX in the 1980s?
 
SpaceshipDC10
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:42 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 52):
Is this MSY's first ever transatlantic flight? Could have sworn National tried MSY-Paris

Bingo! DE's flight will be MSY third to Europe after NA and BA.

http://airlinespastpresent.blogspot....3/national-airlines-route-map.html
 
phatfarmlines
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:44 am

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 44):
Condor is resuming service to FLL in summer of 2017 but I am surprised that they do not fly to Orlando, Fort Myers, Miami
and/or Tampa in 2016.

The common link with the above destinations is service from either LH or AB. Condor seeks to be the only German carrier in the city.
 
thomasphoto60
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:48 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 52):
Is this MSY's first ever transatlantic flight? Could have sworn National tried MSY-Paris

National, AFAIK did service MSY to CDG (ORY), though I could be mistaken. However, BA did have an L1011 service to LHR or maybe it was LGW during the 80s. I am sure one of the MSY fans out there that can check on the start up and closing down dates.
 
SunsetLimited
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:51 am

Quoting thomasphoto60 (Reply 56):
National, AFAIK did service MSY to CDG (ORY), though I could be mistaken. However, BA did have an L1011 service to LHR or maybe it was LGW during the 80s. I am sure one of the MSY fans out there that can check on the start up and closing down dates.

I believe the NA service MSY-ORY was published but never started. NA did fly MSY-AMS 1X weekly for a short time. BA from what I remember only lasted about ten months or so, '82 leading into '83, with the L1011-500, running LGW-MSY-MEX 3X weekly. That time frame (late 70's - early 80's) was a particularly bad time for the New Orleans economy (oil bust).
 
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lesfalls
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:53 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 52):
I wonder if they would give SRQ another look.

I think RSW would get Condor before SRQ. Can SRQ even handle a 767?

[Edited 2016-06-08 18:25:09]
 
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Ytraveller
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:16 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 50):
BTW, I'm seeing a discrepancy of the announced service level for SAN; some places report twice weekly, others, 3x week.

According to the Condor booking engine, it's 2x weekly.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 50):
One last thing: I would be quite surprised if the SAN-FRA service doesn't go year-'round pretty quickly!

All but two of Condor's destinations in the US and Canada (LAS + SEA) operate seasonally. They don't seem to be big on year-round routes to these places.
 
727LOVER
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:28 am

Quoting lesfalls (Reply 58):
I think RSW would get Condor before SRQ.

Well yeah.,...if AB collapses.

Quoting lesfalls (Reply 58):
Can SRQ handle a 767?

Runway is 9500 ft....so I'd guess yeah.



http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20100902/article/9021044
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:31 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 52):
Is this MSY's first ever transatlantic flight?

Third.

NA flew MSY-AMS with a D10
BA flew LGW-MSY-MEX with an L10


Quoting thomasphoto60 (Reply 56):
National, AFAIK did service MSY to CDG (ORY), though I could be mistaken

   NA planned MSY-PAR and MSY-FRA, and printed them on their 1978-1979 timetable, but the flights never started.
 
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lesfalls
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:35 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 60):
Well yeah.,...if AB collapses.

RSW still defitnetly has the demand even if AB remains. The reason I heard for other E.U carriers not starting flights to RSW is because RSW doesn't have a second runway so the airline doesn't want to risk getting one of its aircraft stranded there if something happens on the runway(I know it sounds like a stupid reason but this is what one of the security offers said the last time I was at RSW).
 
usflyguy
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:02 am

Quoting lesfalls (Reply 62):
(I know it sounds like a stupid reason but this is what one of the security offers said the last time I was at RSW).

as in TSA agent?
 
ipodguy7
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:44 am

Quoting lesfalls (Reply 62):
RSW still defitnetly has the demand even if AB remains. The reason I heard for other E.U carriers not starting flights to RSW is because RSW doesn't have a second runway so the airline doesn't want to risk getting one of its aircraft stranded there if something happens on the runway(I know it sounds like a stupid reason but this is what one of the security offers said the last time I was at RSW).

You're 100% right, that is a quite idiotic line of reasoning.
 
DTWLAX
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:30 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 4):
Sweet! So we finally got a FRA flight, and our first nonstop to the Continent.

Isn't LHR already being served nonstop from SAN?
 
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Ytraveller
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:32 am

Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 65):
Isn't LHR already being served nonstop from SAN?

I guess he means the European continent as separate from the island of Britain.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:39 am

Quoting lesfalls (Reply 62):
The reason I heard for other E.U carriers not starting flights to RSW is because RSW doesn't have a second runway so the airline doesn't want to risk getting one of its aircraft stranded there if something happens on the runway(I know it sounds like a stupid reason but this is what one of the security offers said the last time I was at RSW).

You should go with your initial reaction... yeah, that's a stupid reason (that NO intercon airline is actually using).
 
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SANFan
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:20 am

Quoting Ytraveller (Reply 66):
I guess he means the European continent as separate from the island of Britain.

  


Quoting Ytraveller (Reply 59):
According to the Condor booking engine, it's 2x weekly


Yes, and it was also the original press release by Condor itself (linked in the OP) that said 3x weekly, Mo, Th & Sa.

Actually, it's both! Checking the booking engine, in May & June 2017, the flights will op Mon & Thu, then the Sat frequency is added for July & Aug with the final operation being Sep 2, 2017. (As of now...)

bb
 
SpaceshipDC10
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:56 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 60):
Quoting lesfalls (Reply 58):
Can SRQ handle a 767?

Runway is 9500 ft....so I'd guess yeah.

FLL can with 9000ft runway, so it's yes for SRQ.
 
GG22
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 3:49 pm

Wow, really great news!

Even I thought FRA-SAN would be more likely to be flown by LH. SAN, along with other destinations like PHX for example, has been mentioned again and again while talking about possible new American destinations ex Germany.
Nice for MSY to finally have a TATL service!

In general, the number of American airports offering flights to Europe is consistently increasing (MSY,SJC,AUS,PVD,...).

Is it possible that Germany is the European country offering the most destinations in the USA now (not talking about frequency), or is Great Britain still Nr. 1?

Will the Condor 767 fleet be enhanced? I think they only have about 16 of them and they are announcing new long haul destinations pretty often these days.

Moreover, lovely to see the 767, basically an 80s plane, can still be quite succesful today. UA also gave a strong signal with keeping their 767 fleet. I wonder if the 767 is still the most widely used TATL plane in 2016.
 
washingtonflyer
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:01 pm

Congrats to SANMAN66 for being on the money in June 2014!

Thread For SAN Fans: Volume 4 (by bw50505 Jun 29 2014 in Civil Aviation)
 
peanuts
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:08 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 17):
the heat index routinely gets to 40C+!!!

What the heck are they thinking??

While I agree, how does that explain the summer nuttiness going on in Orlando? Are the British more resilient somehow?

I'm impressed with Condor's expansion but it leaves me with the question: why did they not jump at Tampa when they could? Now TPA has LH (and Edelweiss, which is also LH).
 
a380787
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:19 pm

Quoting peanuts (Reply 72):

I'm impressed with Condor's expansion but it leaves me with the question: why did they not jump at Tampa when they could? Now TPA has LH (and Edelweiss, which is also LH).

I don't know what kind of agreement, either explicit or "gentlemen", exists, if at all, but if you look at Condor's Americas network, they pretty much compliment what LH Group offers, with very little overlap. It almost *seems* like they're acting as an extension of Jump/Eurowings.
 
SCQ83
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:30 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 73):
I don't know what kind of agreement, either explicit or "gentlemen", exists, if at all, but if you look at Condor's Americas network, they pretty much compliment what LH Group offers, with very little overlap. It almost *seems* like they're acting as an extension of Jump/Eurowings.

Dunno but they still sell codesharing flights. For instance the other day I looked at a CGN-MUC-HAV with Lufthansa/Condor (and it was cheaper than MUC-HAV so they take the logic of discounting the one-stop VS the non-stop). It was indeed cheaper than DUS-HAV or CGN-VRA with Eurowings.

I think however when comparing to LHR and BA there are two differences between Condor/LH and FRA

- London is overall a larger market (both business and O&D) for the US (and also geography and B787s help), which means BA has it "easier" to make smaller destinations work than LH. So BA flies AUS or SAN but LH does not.

- Germany is a bigger source of tourists than the UK overall (of course there will be exceptions, whether it is Costa del Sol in Spain or Central Florida in the US). Germans travel more for leisure than British and FRA has an enormous leisure catchment area (if you are on holidays willing to go to Alaska, taking a 1h30' ICE from Stuttgart or Koln is not a big deal) even compared to London. So that probably is the logic reason that Condor can make AUS and SAN work (whilst LH cannot) and also even much "odder" destinations (not even served from London) such as Anchorage, Providence or Whitehorse in Canada.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:19 pm

Quoting peanuts (Reply 72):
While I agree, how does that explain the summer nuttiness going on in Orlando?

It's hot, but doesn't get as much of that killer coastal humidity to drive up the heat index.

The only place that I've ever experienced with the combo of heat+humidy more unbearable than MSY, is HKG in August.

Nearly melted.


Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 74):
Dunno but they still sell codesharing flights.

They don't appear to be offering them from MSY right now.

I don't really intended to book on this flight, until we see later in the fall where (if anywhere) BA pulls the trigger to in the USA.... but I've been doing some fooling around with J flights on DE's MSY-FRA, and that seems to be all they're offering. No codeshare options are bookable on their site yet.

Maybe if I were to call in, but not that serious about it.
Anyone else tried to do so?
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:28 pm



MSY's spotters' FBook page posted the cake, presented by the MSY airport staff.

https://scontent-sjc2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13344521_1014381278640008_3348903091605327427_n.jpg?oh=c5bb1a4c2ec6e10d83feb926a3bd2597&oe=5804D91D

Holy crap that's cool!
Look at the little passports! lol

[Edited 2016-06-09 11:35:30]
 
a380787
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:31 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 75):

The only place that I've ever experienced with the combo of heat+humidy more unbearable than MSY, is HKG in August.

Nearly melted.

Try Singapore (basically right on top of Equator). It's hot and humid nearly year-round. Then you'll appreciate that HKG (*just* south of the Tropic of Cancer) actually has some resemblance of "seasons", relatively speaking.

At SIN, there's not a single month where average daytime high is less than 86 F / 30 C, and not a single month where relative humidity is less than 80%.

Even CUN in September wasn't exactly a walk in the park either.
 
SpaceshipDC10
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:31 pm

Very nice cake. Love the old style luggage and what about that globe.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:52 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 77):
Try Singapore

Singy never bothered me anywhere near as bad... though then again, I never went there in July/August, so that might be why.
 
blacksoviet
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 7:54 pm

Love the cake, but the plane looks like an A319.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:44 pm

Winglets would've been the only touch missing.  
 
thomasphoto60
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:49 pm

Perhaps I skimmed over it, I seem to recall seeing something about DE starting an AUS flight this Summer. Did the flight ever launch? Don't recall seeing anything about it.
 
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Ytraveller
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:55 pm

Quoting thomasphoto60 (Reply 82):
Perhaps I skimmed over it, I seem to recall seeing something about DE starting an AUS flight this Summer. Did the flight ever launch? Don't recall seeing anything about it.

Starts 27JUN

http://austintexas.gov/news/condor-a...nnounces-frankfurt-germany-nonstop
 
RJNUT
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:56 pm

Quoting thomasphoto60 (Reply 82):
Perhaps I skimmed over it, I seem to recall seeing something about DE starting an AUS flight this Summer. Did the flight ever launch? Don't recall seeing anything about it.

I show start date 6/27 Mondays and Thursdays
 
NolaMD88fan
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:59 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 75):
They don't appear to be offering them from MSY right now.

I don't really intended to book on this flight, until we see later in the fall where (if anywhere) BA pulls the trigger to in the USA.... but I've been doing some fooling around with J flights on DE's MSY-FRA, and that seems to be all they're offering. No codeshare options are bookable on their site yet.

Maybe if I were to call in, but not that serious about it.
Anyone else tried to do so?

Very strange. Every other US departure point has the codesharing available. My guess is it's a webpage issue that needs to be resolved. It would make no sense to not offer connections once in Europe on codeshare partners.
 
thomasphoto60
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:51 pm

Quoting Ytraveller (Reply 83):

Starts 27JUN

http://austintexas.gov/news/condor-a...nnounces-frankfurt-germany-nonstop
Quoting RJNUT (Reply 84):
I show start date 6/27 Mondays and Thursdays

Thanks Guys....
 
SunsetLimited
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:54 pm

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 85):
Very strange. Every other US departure point has the codesharing available. My guess is it's a webpage issue that needs to be resolved. It would make no sense to not offer connections once in Europe on codeshare partners.

The connections will probably be loaded as the weeks progress. It's still 11 months out before the flight.
 
RJNUT
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:55 pm

Quoting SunsetLimited (Reply 87):
The connections will probably be loaded as the weeks progress. It's still 11 months out before the flight.

this prices out in Sabre as a thru, one-way fare

1 DE2067M 14MAY S MSYFRA SS1 1120P 405P 15MAY M /DCDE /E
2 LH 864M 15MAY M FRAOSL SS1 925P 1120P /DCLH /E
WPNCB«
14MAY DEPARTURE DATE-----LAST DAY TO PURCHASE 12JUN/1854
BASE FARE TAXES/FEES/CHARGES TOTAL
1- USD694.00 79.90XT USD773.90ADT
XT 17.50YR 17.80US 5.60AY 10.30DE
24.20RA 4.50XF
694.00 79.90 773.90TTL
ADT-01 UQW
MSY DE X/FRA LH OSL M694.00NUC694.00END ROE1.00 XFMSY4.5
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:01 am

Quoting SunsetLimited (Reply 87):
The connections will probably be loaded as the weeks progress. It's still 11 months out before the flight.

Fair enough, so they probably should've gotten on that, before the announcement....

...every day is potential bookings lost.
Look at the NOLA.com forum and see how many people are wondering why they can only seem to find FRA.
 
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RWA380
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:27 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 21):
To the States, yeah, really. You think Europeans are flocking to Austin, Portland, Baltimore, Minneapolis and Providence in the summer?

Of course they are, by the thousands. DE carries more Germans on holiday or business, than US passengers heading overseas, just my thoughts. Mostly foreign passports for the PDX flight, but flyoregon points this out below, Oregon has Daimler Trucks based & made here in Portland, those Mercedes sprinter vans that are so popular currently are made here.

Quoting flyoregon (Reply 23):
I can only speak for Portland, but living in Portland and frequenting places like the Columbia River Gorge and Mt. Hood area trails and hikes, yes, there a lot of European travelers "flocking" to Portland in the summer. I've been here all of my life and I've never seen the trailheads as busy as I do now with a wide array of languages and accents being heard by the people visiting these places.

Lots of German business people have come here on business & brought the whole family here after seeing how beautiful, exciting & diverse Portland is, plus the huge foodie movement, mild summer temps (much like Germany), this is a hot tourist market, hence all the adds PDX has garnered.
 
NolaMD88fan
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:54 am

So, the main Condor website is still not allowing connections from MSY through FRA, but online booking engines are now. I just tried Kayak, and was able to get connections through interline partners to various cities in Europe. Hopefully, DE will get their website issue corrected soon.
 
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lesfalls
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:52 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 63):

He is an airport operations agent.
 
Western727
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:36 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 17):
MSY's busy tourism season is October-May

  

I share your puzzlement at the timing of this route. Being based in AUS, I used to travel to Louisiana frequently for work for a few years, and always dreaded going in the summer months; it's just not pleasant, even with the smaller tourist crowds; whereas, I always eagerly anticipated going during the cooler months (the food, culture and history are awesome).

Unlike the southern US coastal destinations, there are no beaches in MSY to help with the heat & humidity. And the French Quarter's cumulative beer/urine/vomit smell that understandably permeates the air is fairly potent in the heat and humidity of the summer, even though they do a great job of hosing the streets and sidewalks down every morning. After a good half-hour I always got used to it, but it's still kind of gross at first...so I eventually gravitated towards going only during the off-summer months.

Later comments in this thread suggest that the route may be for Louisianans to travel to Europe and beyond, which would make sense.

I'm eager to learn more: do Germans really want to spend money to be in MSY in the summer months? Germans are arguably more worldly than Americans, so I'm confident that it can't be ignorance on the part of German tourists.

EDIT: clarity.

[Edited 2016-06-10 09:39:24]
 
DLD9S
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:58 pm

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 91):
So, the main Condor website is still not allowing connections from MSY through FRA, but online booking engines are now. I just tried Kayak, and was able to get connections through interline partners to various cities in Europe. Hopefully, DE will get their website issue corrected soon.

I believe that most airlines only allow bookings around 11 months out because GDS's can't book a date next year that has not passed this year. Condor is unusual that their system allows them to book so far in advance, but the interline feed won't be available except for maybe their first couple of flights to MSY.
 
WarmNuts
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:36 pm

I have not read through the entire thread so I apologize in advance should my post be redundant, but given San Diego's continued emergence as a global biotech hub analogous to the silicon valley of life sciences, I would expect continued organic growth of both TATL and TPAC O&D traffic to major economic centers.

And considering DE's route is catering to seasonal tourism, I would not be in the least bit surprised if we see SANDAG successfully 'land' another European nonstop within the next 2-3 years, or to see LH supplant DE on this route with newer aircraft and greater frequency.

Anyone who's traveled more than once on intl business out of SAN knows the value of avoiding the inevitable 3-5 additional hours required to transit through LAX, regardless of whether your connecting through Bradley or shuttling down the 405.
 
a380787
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:43 pm

Quoting WarmNuts (Reply 95):
I have not read through the entire thread so I apologize in advance should my post be redundant, but given San Diego's continued emergence as a global biotech hub analogous to the silicon valley of life sciences, I would expect continued organic growth of both TATL and TPAC O&D traffic to major economic centers.

The relatively short runway at 9400 ft / 2865m is the albatross limiting which cities can be flown nonstop from there. And FWIW, the metro is still just 3.3m people, which is something to keep in perspective.

That being said, sounds like a prime target for things like DY and HU.
 
WarmNuts
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Fri Jun 10, 2016 10:09 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 96):
The relatively short runway at 9400 ft / 2865m is the albatross limiting which cities can be flown nonstop from there. And FWIW, the metro is still just 3.3m people, which is something to keep in perspective.

That being said, sounds like a prime target for things like DY and HU.

Understood, though this is much less of an issue with the economics of the Dreamliner. And a full daily 772 to LHR and a near-full daily 788 to NRT are demonstrative of the fact there is sufficient O&D demand to overcome the albatross of which you speak.

However, to be quite honest, the metro size is about as relevant to my point as is my favorite color.

San Diego, with over 33 million tourists each year, is a prime destination city. But even more importantly, as mentioned, San Diego is emerging as the singular most significant biotech hub on the planet (with $400 billion in venture capital raised just in Q1, San Diego is on track to raise as much venture capital this year as all of India). And I have heard from multiple sources this year that more s/w start-ups are looking to San Diego as a location due to the saturation in Silicon Valley.

It is this industry growth and the resultant business travel that will fuel demand for more TATL/TPAC O&D traffic, not the size nor population of the SD metro region.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:41 am

Quoting WarmNuts (Reply 97):
And a full daily 772 to LHR and a near-full daily 788 to NRT are demonstrative of the fact there is sufficient O&D demand to overcome the albatross of which you speak.

All the O&D in the universe, is not going to overcome the fact of what he said:
SAN is indeed limited in what destinations it can serve, due to its runway/terrain conditions. It's likely never going to be able to host ULH ops, with any expectation of profit potential. And BA for years had to truck some of its traffic up to LAX, due to OEI takeoff requirements at SAN.
 
WarmNuts
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RE: Condor Announces MSY And SAN

Sat Jun 11, 2016 5:35 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 98):
All the O&D in the universe, is not going to overcome the fact of what he said:
SAN is indeed limited in what destinations it can serve, due to its runway/terrain conditions. It's likely never going to be able to host ULH ops, with any expectation of profit potential. And BA for years had to truck some of its traffic up to LAX, due to OEI takeoff requirements at SAN.

Again, understood - believe it or not, these runway limitations are nothing new - you may not realize it, but we've been stuck with the same runway and terrain since the airport opened.

And again, despite the runway limitations, the route has been and remains profitable for BA, and furthermore, JL has seen steady increases in the load factor of it's NRT-SAN flights:



And now we will see how well the FRA-SAN route performs on a seasonal basis.

One might think that given the established success of two routes, and with the forthcoming initiation of a third that maybe - just maybe - despite the limitations posed by the infrastructure, the carriers are operating the route because they're making money on it.

IMO the one, very important metric that can be hard to spot from inside a cockpit is the correlation between direct foreign investment in San Diego and the resultant initiation/increase of/in O&D traffic. San Diego was one of only two cities in the country that the Brookings Institute and JP Morgan used to pilot the FDI Global Cities Initiative, due largely to the region's emergence as a global biotech hub. In the same period that foreign direct investment in the US fell by more than 50%, FDI in the San Diego metro region grew by 90%. Again, it would appear as if this correlation - and the importance of this metric as a driver for future air travel demand - are being overlooked by some in this thread.

To further demonstrate to what I still believe is - and will continue to be - the primary driver in the eventual expansion of TATL and TPAC O&D routes (if only 1-2), at present a full 13% of the FDI-related jobs in San Diego come out of London-based establishments. And 12% comes from Japanese companies HQ'd in Tokyo. Another 3,800 jobs (7.9%) are directly tied to foreign-owned establishments (FOE) out of Paris. Add another 9.6% of San Diego FOE jobs (4,700) for Swiss-owned companies. And another 6.1% (3000) FOE jobs for German-owned firms.

Do you think it's any coincidence that our current two daily LH flights connect SAN to LHR and NRT?

In fact, the20-year FAA Aerospace Forecast predicts SAN intl load factors will outpace the rest of the country significantly:

http://oi67.tinypic.com/33uz9t4.jpg

Given, this correlation does not account for the restrictions which you and another poster reference (e.g., terrain, runway length).

However, once again, as evidenced by a) the demonstrably successful operation of TATL and TPAC routes currently originating out of SAN, b) the business drivers that empirically are fueling said demand, and c) San Diego's continued, established place as one of the top three tourist destinations in the United States, despite the constraints posed by our infrastructure, the potentiality for growth of TATL and TPAC O&D routes from San Diego remains strong.

Thus, I maintain it is entirely likely we see the addition of at least one more route within the next five years. And despite the existence of two such flights already, DE's entry into the market, albeit it with limited, seasonal frequency, is indicative of this.

But please... by all means, ignore all the meta data driving regional economic growth and instead enlighten myself and the rest of the general aviation public by redundantly posting our runway length for the 9400th time.

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