wjcandee wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

[re DHL:] it looks as if Amazon is inhibiting their operations

"Amazon inhibiting DHL operations"...oh my gosh that's such a funny concept!! Hahahahahahahahaha! Made my day!

DHL was peeing on themselves to entice Amazon to use their unused day-sort capability and their underused ramp and people, and to ingratiate themselves to Amazon for business around the world, and to snatch the business away from ATSG. If DHL's operations are "inhibited" by the business that they solicited from Amazon, it's a problem that they asked for. And they sure as heck wouldn't even have a day operation in their puny little sort center at CVG (that they were so proud of and rushed to go back to after crashing and burning in their US expansion) if it weren't for Amazon.

What on earth are you talking about, DHL operates flights operations during the day, look at the second pic below, that is pre-Amazon during the middle the day, looks "underused to me" . In addition, since they operate flights all over the world at different times, their planes sit quite a while on the ramp at CVG to get cargo from other flights, they can't just park them in the grass! They are short on aircraft parking, DHL did not just add parking spaces for Amazon, they were originally for expanding their operations. Pre Amazon they had about 84 departures a day (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/2 ... /93484152/) I am sure they decided having Amazon to pay to use their facility was a good source of revenue when they don't have as many flights, but DHL is steadily increasing their network more and more. Of course much of the Domestic-International flows occur at night from CVG, but they also do a bunch of day time flying (its not day everywhere in the world at the same time, many of the Europe/Asia flights arrive/depart in the middle of the day, as well as numerous domestic routes). With DHL's ops, plus them having other carriers like Singapore Airlines, Cargolux, and AeroUnion coming in, its gets quite crowed during many times of the day. Look up any recent picture of the facility and you will see most if not all the hardstands full (and this is during the "slow" daytime you talk about).



Here is before Amazon came, the ramp looks very "underused", again, this is the middle of the day, they most certainly operate flights during the day:

Comair: Pretty sure I was careful to be polite to YOU, although I found the IDEA interesting/funny. I'd appreciate the same courtesy.

I didn't say that they didn't have day "operations". I said they didn't have a day SORT, which they didn't. https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... ahead.html And the fact that they had to hire 1000 people to handle the new operation for Amazon means that from an employment perspective their facility was "underutilized" during the day, even if they had a lot of planes sitting around.

And if they were so crammed for space, and Amazon was going to be so much of an "interference", then why encourage Amazon to come use their facility? The point is, if there's an issue, it's one of their own making, and they should figure out a way to deal with it. Hooterville would have loved to have had the opportunity, even if their nitwit airport board didn't have the sophistication to play their cards right, and the Ohio governor's office didn't act to keep the opportunity from decamping for Kentucky.

And just to clarify the relative capabilities of DHL's facility compared to its competitors, it is said to be capable of doing 80K packages per hour; UPS is now at 416,000 per hour.

I don't think

wjcandee wrote:

"Amazon inhibiting DHL operations"...oh my gosh that's such a funny concept!! Hahahahahahahahaha! Made my day!

was showing "courtesy", but I am going to try to avoid such language. I am definitely not trying to attack, I think we are talking about different things. I don't think I said anything about sort operations (or at least I was not intending too), which DHL does not have during the day (that is why they had to hire all the staff for the Amazon flights), so yes the sorting facility is underutilized during the day. I was talking about aircraft parking space, which is getting very tight during the day, that is all I was trying to say, sorry if I was unclear about that. What I am saying is that Amazon nor DHL can add many more flights under the current configuration without more parking spaces, that is what I meant by "inhibited".

DHL is happy to help Amazon and frankly I bet they hope Amazon can "get back" at FedEx and UPS for ruining their US domestic ops. The arrangement, although quite strange at times, seems to be gaining some unique benefits, already FEAMaero is building a facility at CVG, they even list Amazon as a customer on their website now: http://www.feamaero.com/clients/. In the meantime, I am sure DHL enjoys the revenue from Amazon using its facilities, even if it does limit growth for the next year or so, they seem happy with the arrangement: http://www.lanereport.com/82380/2017/10/one-on-one-e-commerces-rapid-expansion-is-changing-express-delivery/.

I will be interested to see how the growth keeps up, CVG should surpass 1 million tons of cargo handled for 2017, which is a pretty big jump. In comparison, for 2016, IND handled 1.1 million tons, SDF handled 2.4 million, and MEM handled 4.3 million. Amazon could push CVG way up there in short order of everything goes as currently planned. There must be quite a lot they are working with the airport on (the master plan work started in fall 2016 and will last until fall 2018), plus it seems like no coincidence that Amazon is leasing office space in the very same building the airport board works in.

Wow I am not sure a lot of people understood how much stuff Amazon is moving on a daily basis. Getting out the popcorn and going to watch this whole thing become bigger than anyone (except Amazon) ever expected. I also IMHO think that Amazon may have a huge advantage by not trying to stick to "tried and True" This is a fun thread!

Does anyone have a suggestion on how to estimate the volumes Amazon is moving?

I tried to do it using DoT freight data and looking at the incremental volumes for ATSG and Atlas since they started flying for Amazon. But because each company flies for other companies it's a rough estimate at best. Is there a more granular approach that anyone knows of? Or data source available?

CVG: Let's not drag this out, but note the following wording: "I know you weren't trying to say that Amazon was bad for DHL, and I'm not slamming you; the concept just caught my eye and made me laugh." I edited the thing multiple times to convey my reaction to the concept but not be mean to YOU. And you hit back personally. Just sayin'.

Anyway, I appreciate the statistics and other information in your second post. Very interesting.

What Acey said is also very interesting. The limited number of flights that actually transit CVG have essentially maxed-out DHL's 80,000 items-per-hour sorting capability. That's impressive when you realize that the number of segments carrying pallets is similar to the number of segments running cans through CVG.

whatThe wrote:

Does anyone have a suggestion on how to estimate the volumes Amazon is moving?

I tried to do it using DoT freight data and looking at the incremental volumes for ATSG and Atlas since they started flying for Amazon. But because each company flies for other companies it's a rough estimate at best. Is there a more granular approach that anyone knows of? Or data source available?

I can give numbers for just CVG, not sure if any other airports Amazon serves give similar numbers. I guess if someone knows the % Amazon going through CVG, we could calculate a rough network total.

Based on data reported by CVG, it looks like roughly 20,000 tons a month. Operations started in May, before then YOY increases were about 1-2,000 tons per month, after Amazon started it was about 21-25,000 tons YOY increase, so I think 20,000 tons/month seems reasonable. http://www.cvgairport.com/docs/default- ... ?sfvrsn=12

I am sure there is a way to get exact numbers though...

cvgComair wrote:

whatThe wrote:

Does anyone have a suggestion on how to estimate the volumes Amazon is moving?

I tried to do it using DoT freight data and looking at the incremental volumes for ATSG and Atlas since they started flying for Amazon. But because each company flies for other companies it's a rough estimate at best. Is there a more granular approach that anyone knows of? Or data source available?

I can give numbers for just CVG, not sure if any other airports Amazon serves give similar numbers. I guess if someone knows the % Amazon going through CVG, we could calculate a rough network total.

Based on data reported by CVG, it looks like roughly 20,000 tons a month. Operations started in May, before then YOY increases were about 1-2,000 tons per month, after Amazon started it was about 21-25,000 tons YOY increase, so I think 20,000 tons/month seems reasonable. http://www.cvgairport.com/docs/default- ... ?sfvrsn=12

I am sure there is a way to get exact numbers though...

Thanks for this. I'll take a look.

FWIW, N382AN, to be N399CM according to FAA, will arrive at CVG around noon EST today, 10/13. To be dry-leased to Northern Aviation for Aloha Cargo. Initially will be on ATI Ops Spec and flown by ATI under CMI contract until Aloha Cargo gets appropriate certifications; expectation is that it ultimately will be moved to Aloha ops spec and flown by Aloha pilots, but from what I read that may be quite a while.

Is there any data showing what the world's fleet of 767 freighters looks like today in comparison to 5 years ago? It truly seems like the 767 is becoming the dominant freighter of the industry despite the A330s availability.

CX747 wrote:

Is there any data showing what the world's fleet of 767 freighters looks like today in comparison to 5 years ago? It truly seems like the 767 is becoming the dominant freighter of the industry despite the A330s availability.

I don't know of any currently-maintained list, per se. The raw data should be available on Planespotters.net, but it presupposes that you know what company each aircraft was coming from or going to and then you would have to compile it. Alternatively, you could try to get a list of the aircraft that cycled through the conversion houses. Until this year, there were only two locations in the world that converted 767-300s into freighters: TLV (IAI/Bedek BDSF) and QPG (Boeing BCF by SASCO [ST Aerospace Services Co]). This year, two locations were added: MEX (Mexicana MRO for IAI/Bedek) and TPE (Evergreen Aircraft Technologies [EAT] for Boeing). Each secondary location is now working on their first aircraft: a Kalitta-destined 767-300BDSF at MEX (N762CK) and an Atlas-destined 767-300BCF (N1427A) at TPE.

Boeing said a long time ago that they can't profitably convert a 767-300 into a freighter in the US, so they use Asian companies to do the work. Labor in Israel isn't inexpensive by any means, but IAI/Bedek has traditionally done its conversion work in Israel.

Our friend Yochai seems to be very aware of each frame cycling through IAI/Bedek and may have a list somewhere. But I don't think we have a friend that keeps an eye on QPG.

Our friend HKCanadaExpat actually tracks the history of pretty much every 767, passenger and freighter, but I'm not sure how long he has been doing so. You can look at his threads in 2016 and 2017 at a minimum and try to compile a list. He doesn't necessarily have every 767 frame converted or traded, but I'll bet his threads come pretty close to perfect.

As always, outstanding information. Sad to here that conversions are supposedly not economically feasible in the US. It would be nice to see and visit!

Would love to see an update route map

Yochai, any update on where N376CM transferred?

And the Atlas roster of converted aircraft keeps on growing...

N1381A, the tenth conversion for Atlas, is on its way back from QPG to CONUS. FIrst stop...Guam. The aircraft from QPG have been arriving already-painted, so this one should be quickly ready for service.

(Note: This is the eleventh xxxxA 767-300 for Atlas, but 1709A is a white-painted maintenance spare that shouldn't count towards the 20 dry-leased Amazon aircraft and can be used by Atlas on its DHL and other work as well. And it wasn't converted; it was already a freighter when pulled from the desert.) There are now three Atlas 767-300s known to be in conversion, and a fourth that should be moving to a conversion house soon.

FYI, I tried to order a Goal Zero Mini Lighthouse to my family in Puerto Rico, but after waiting for my order to be fulfilled, I get a notice that it can't be shipped to PR since it contains items classified as dangerous goods.

I was wondering, why wasn't the Amazon system smart enough to catch that ahead of time prior to ordering? There are plenty of items that Amazon flags as Hazmat prior to ordering, preventing the buyer from selecting an ineligible address ahead of time.

1337: Interesting point!

Amazon ran a relief flight to STT from CVG on Monday 10/16, using N337AZ.

N382AN leaving TLV for SNN last week on delivery

yochai wrote:

N382AN leaving TLV for SNN last week on delivery

Thanks for the great beauty shot!

I read the caption on that photo, and I noticed you said she's going to be "operated by CAM". I think that's a typo: It's gonna be dry-leased from CAM, but initially operated by ATI until Aloha is ready to fly it themselves.

As you all know, N1381A is on its way back to the US from QPG. But there was a hiccup over the Pacific and it headed for the nearest land.

1381 left QPG for GUM on Sunday, stayed there for like 12 hours, then kept moving to HNL. It arrived HNL about 1am EST today, and then started nonstop for MIA about 4:45pm EST today.

However, the aircraft turned around over the Pacific and headed back to HNL, arriving around 6:40pm. It got about 45 minutes out of HNL before turning around. It stayed at FL390 the whole way back. Presumably something relatively-minor, as no emergency was declared.

N1373A rolled out of the conversion line early this morning in preparation for its first test flight in the coming days, I will keep you posted.

yochai wrote:

N1373A rolled out of the conversion line early this morning in preparation for its first test flight in the coming days, I will keep you posted.

Thanks, Yochai, for that update! Looks like they are getting them out the door now -- 8 months on this one. I will be interested to see how much exterior work they had to do on it. Looks like we will see N1399A in November, and that should be the last 767-300 conversion for either Atlas or ATSG from either conversion house for this year.

The ATSG aircraft that move through TLV in 2018 won't be for Amazon; but I will likely follow them anyway. So far, they are all ex-AA. My EWAG is at least 6 more aircraft converted (plus the two just-painted), and of those 8, 3 go to Northern Aviation (Aloha and maybe others), 3 go to a specific carrier, and I still think maybe one goes to Okay Airways.

Atlas currently has 3 BCFs and 6 BDSFs in service for Prime Air, plus 1709A (which is a BDSF). One BCF and one BDSF will be in service within 30 days, bringing the total as of YE2017 to 4 BCFs and 7 BDSFs.

So they will be at 11 out of the contracted 20 by YE 2017. The remaining 9 Prime Air aircraft should be 5 BCFs (total 9) and 4 BDSFs (total 11).

wjcandee wrote:

Atlas currently has 3 BCFs and 6 BDSFs in service for Prime Air, plus 1709A (which is a BDSF). One BCF and one BDSF will be in service within 30 days, bringing the total as of YE2017 to 4 BCFs and 7 BDSFs.

So they will be at 11 out of the contracted 20 by YE 2017. The remaining 9 Prime Air aircraft should be 5 BCFs (total 9) and 4 BDSFs (total 11).

Plus 1709A. As you know, that is a white-tail spare. But it will be covering the Amazon system in Q4, so Atlas will have a fleet of 12 Amazon prime aircraft by December. Hopefully by November.

CallmeJB wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

Atlas currently has 3 BCFs and 6 BDSFs in service for Prime Air, plus 1709A (which is a BDSF). One BCF and one BDSF will be in service within 30 days, bringing the total as of YE2017 to 4 BCFs and 7 BDSFs.

So they will be at 11 out of the contracted 20 by YE 2017. The remaining 9 Prime Air aircraft should be 5 BCFs (total 9) and 4 BDSFs (total 11).

Plus 1709A. As you know, that is a white-tail spare. But it will be covering the Amazon system in Q4, so Atlas will have a fleet of 12 Amazon prime aircraft by December. Hopefully by November.

You are absolutely-correct. That's why I mention 1709A in the first sentence. It is not one of the ones dry-leased to Amazon, so when counting how more aircraft are coming in 2018, I didn't count 1709A.

But you are certainly right to count it as available to be used on Amazon during Peak. Unless, of course, Atlas would prefer to use it on DHL during Peak. I guess it depends upon how many routes Amazon assigns to GTI for Peak, and how many aircraft break during that time.

So 368AA/396CM is back in ILN. There was some talk that this aircraft might become 399CM and go to Northern, but I think the better assumption is that this will be 396CM as planned, and go to Amerijet. Obviously, if anybody has a photo of it painted, we will know the answer. I think the Northern aircraft will be 382AN/399CM, which has been in paint at ROW since 10/14. So figure it will be out of paint by 10/28-ish.

Some interesting statistics:

In 2016, Boeing, Microsoft and Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) (9th, 12th and 19th respectively) were among the top 20 the largest buyers of corporate travel in the U.S. Five years ago, Amazon didn't even crack the top 100, according to Business Traveler News. The company spent an estimated $216 million on air travel last year.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/19/news/co ... index.html

There is talk of a large Amazon 767 order, given the timeline on 2020-2021, it would make sense based on the time its going to take for Amazon to build its facilities:
https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... nited.html
https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... -jets.html

If this is/were true, I wonder what effect it would have on ex-passenger 767's being converted to freighters and how long the current ones would remain in the fleet.

The BizJournals folks are recycling a rumour from seven months ago. Amazon came out straight up and said it was crap, publicly, back then. No reason to assume that it would be true now.

And, for a variety of reasons, it doesn't make much sense, particularly in the timeframe being discussed.

Of course, one can never underestimate Amazon's ability to exceed expectations, and to do stuff on an enormous scale. But this one seems off to me, particularly when they are 3/4 of the way to their 40 converted 767-300s.

wjcandee wrote:

Amazon came out straight up and said it was crap, publicly, back then. No reason to assume that it would be true now.

Thanks for the info. As long as it does not happen, I guess there will just be more and more rumors.

IMHO it would make no sense for Amazon to buy new planes. An Airline buys an airplane to generate revenue directly, IE paying passengers. Unless Amazon has some grand scheme to enter the passenger or freight market directly I see no case that would justify that. Granted they will be able to control thier shipping and flow of goods but without the huge capital outlay new build aircraft would entail. Having said all that I would definitely agree with wjcandee when it comes to Amazon. Never say Never!

Saw my first Prime Air 763F at a Diamond Head remote stand at HNL last week.

WPvsMW wrote:

Saw my first Prime Air 763F at a Diamond Head remote stand at HNL last week.

Awesome! That was N1381A traveling back to the continental US from being converted in QPG. It went QPG-GUM-HNL-MIA. So you actually got to see it before it was even put into service!

For ABE fans:

Interesting article in the Sunday New York Times about how eastern Pennsylvania, the Lehigh Valley area, Allentown/Bethlehem, etc., has become an enormous hub of warehousing and distribution for the major e-commerce players over the last 5 years, leading to a renaissance of job opportunities for moderately-skilled folks. In short, turns out that the transportation infrastructure that arose in part to serve the steel industry (highways, rail, water, etc.), along with huge swaths of idled real estate in the midst of that infrastructure, makes the area particularly-desirable to those looking for warehouse locations to serve the Eastern Seaboard.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/busi ... v=top-news

travaz wrote:

IMHO it would make no sense for Amazon to buy new planes. An Airline buys an airplane to generate revenue directly, IE paying passengers. Unless Amazon has some grand scheme to enter the passenger or freight market directly I see no case that would justify that. Granted they will be able to control thier shipping and flow of goods but without the huge capital outlay new build aircgraft would entail. Having said all that I would definitely agree with wjcandee when it comes to Amazon. Never say Never!

New freighters pay off with high utilization. When Amazon goes up from one sort per day to multiple sorts per day, they will then benefit from the economics of buying new. But it will be a sub-fleet smaller than the converted fleet. New sites will start with one sort and many won't progress to multi-sorts.

Also Amazon will have to build it's own sorting facility as DHL opperates a night sort precluding the obvious next sort.

So I think a new order is almost certain. For say 25 after Amazon commits to another 20 or so more conversions.

Right now, the Amazon utilization is too low for new builds. But Prime Air is working. The next step is two sorts per day, say six days per week. That would shift to buying new.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

travaz wrote:

IMHO it would make no sense for Amazon to buy new planes. An Airline buys an airplane to generate revenue directly, IE paying passengers. Unless Amazon has some grand scheme to enter the passenger or freight market directly I see no case that would justify that. Granted they will be able to control thier shipping and flow of goods but without the huge capital outlay new build aircgraft would entail. Having said all that I would definitely agree with wjcandee when it comes to Amazon. Never say Never!

New freighters pay off with high utilization. When Amazon goes up from one sort per day to multiple sorts per day, they will then benefit from the economics of buying new. But it will be a sub-fleet smaller than the converted fleet. New sites will start with one sort and many won't progress to multi-sorts.

Also Amazon will have to build it's own sorting facility as DHL opperates a night sort precluding the obvious next sort.

So I think a new order is almost certain. For say 25 after Amazon commits to another 20 or so more conversions.

Right now, the Amazon utilization is too low for new builds. But Prime Air is working. The next step is two sorts per day, say six days per week. That would shift to buying new.

Lightsaber

Late edit:. I believe the doubling of 767 orders is for freighters, not a mythical passenger order:
https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... nited.html

UPS wants to buy new, but won't wait as long as Boeing asked. If Amazon is also buying, then a production ramp for multiple customers makes sense.

Then again, a decade old 767 is only trading for $20 million... So the used market is OK, but not great...

lightsaber wrote:

Late edit:. I believe the doubling of 767 orders is for freighters, not a mythical passenger order:

Could be UPS, I guess. You are obviously very close to this end of the business.

The cited article isn't particularly clear or well-written, but the Leeham (rolleyes) article and a few others point to some kind of potential passenger order. My guess is it was a super-preliminary inquiry along the lines of, "If we wanted to offer a passenger version as a 10-year stopgap and they accepted, what would it take for us to be able to do it? Let's see what the suppliers say." The game of telephone seems to have morphed this into "United is buying 100 pax 763s from us."

Again, that bizjournals article quotes the 100-aircraft Amazon rumour from 7 months ago, which was a rumor that caused Amazon to break its usual rule not to comment on this stuff and instead to say flat out that it was inaccurate. Some people on various forums have said that they have friends in the know who say that the Amazon order is completely-true and happening. Color me dubious.

Me, I think that they are not interested in more 767-300s at the moment beyond the remaining 10 Atlas aircraft that haven't yet arrived on property. At least four of those are already-sourced, and Atlas purported back in February to have all the conversion slots that they needed. However, Atlas is whining about it being ever-so-hard to source the remaining ones they have to source, which is humorous given their previous confidence in their ability to get it done. Interestingly, ATSG has at least 8 tails in various stages of conversion, six of which are going to Northern and Amerijet. They also seem to have a line on the six-or-so other AA retired aircraft, and the seven AA 767-300s that should be leaving service between now and the end of 2018. So at least 13 AA frames are out there in the next year-ish; Atlas may just have been beaten to the punch on some of them.

So my feeling about Amazon buying new is: Down the road: maybe, for the reasons you cite -- greater reliability in higher-frequency service. But I still think it is currently a longshot. I think there are other fish to fry in the expansion of the Amazon network before they would be looking at additional new widebody lift.

But we will see!!

FWIW, I ran across some pictures taken by Gabriel Mora on July 18 of Kalitta's (and IAI/Bedek's) first Mexico conversion in process at Mexicana MRO in MEX. Interesting and artistic-ish. Looks like it had been sanded at that point; interesting method of protecting the engine with foam.

N1373A is scheduled for a 3 hour air test later today with delivery planned for 26/10 to KPSM

It appears that Amazon has extended its ground range for its linehaul network. I had a package two weeks ago that shipped ground all the way from the San Marcos fulfillment center and was delivered by AMZL, and now I have a package that appears to be shipping ground from one of the Fort Worth fulfillment centers and will be delivered by USPS. My previous packages that shipped from Fort Worth this past summer went via UPS 2nd Day Air.

1337Delta: I think you are correct and I think that is the goal. Also maybe revving up some new ground lanes for Peak.

Looks like maybe some schedule changes/additions starting tonight (10/24).

I notice a new PVD-PHX flight operating today on an ATI 767-200 (N714AX today).

Atlas ferried a Prime Air 763 into PVD today as well (N1381A, the newest conversion; if it goes out tonight on a revenue flight, that would be its first revenue run).

Looks like PVD, as anticipated, is going to be an important station.

399CM should be out of paint and headed to ILN on the 28th. It will be in Aloha Cargo paint and begin operating LAX-HNL-LAX on November 6th.

Acey559 wrote:

399CM should be out of paint and headed to ILN on the 28th. It will be in Aloha Cargo paint and begin operating LAX-HNL-LAX on November 6th.

Thanks! Can't wait to see a photo! (And, of course, can't wait to see what 370AA looks like...)

Atlas 3023 (normally CVG-TPA) went CVG-MIA-TPA (Atlas 3024) today, not sure what was up with that.

wjcandee wrote:

Acey559 wrote:

399CM should be out of paint and headed to ILN on the 28th. It will be in Aloha Cargo paint and begin operating LAX-HNL-LAX on November 6th.

Thanks! Can't wait to see a photo! (And, of course, can't wait to see what 370AA looks like...)

You and me both! That thing has been an enigma for as long as I’ve been trying to track it down.

And N1093A did CVG-IAH (GTI3115).

And N1361A did CVG-PVD (GTI3119).

We will see what the routes are from there.

New network node at IAH, apparently.

IAH has been rumored for a while but the hurricane put that on hold for a bit. Until now, it seems.

ATN3783 is showing the move from SCK to SMF.

SMF-TPA

Looks like the CVG-MIA-TPA-CVG route is sticking on Atlas