They need Day to Day control, not a meeting twice a year.

My own impression is that Amazon doesn't need to control the companies to produce results. What they need is a contract with the providers that requires specific performance metrics, which I believe that they have. Most business is conducted between entities that don't control each other, and so various providers compete to provide the price and service quality that the customer demands. If the contract is properly drawn (and these are), the customer can chuck the provider in favor of another if the service isn't there, and doesn't have to develop its own in-house expertise to accomplish a task outside its core competencies. I don't need to own a trucking company to get good trucking service. If Company A isn't getting the job done, I can use Company B.

Amazon seems to have set up a pretty-wise in-house group with the expertise to interface knowledgeably with its providers, and to decide how its air network should look and where it should serve. But it doesn't (and shouldn't) have to get into the weeds of negotiating pilot contracts (oy) or deciding what operating rules its pilots should follow and on and on. It should be able to (and does) just say, "I need you to run a 767-300 departure out of ONT at about 11am, which we figure (please confirm) can/will arrive at ABE at Xpm. We need that 7 days a week. It will be carrying PAJs. Thank you." If the provider can just do that, sweet. If not, they have knowledgeable people who can talk about whatever issue the provider raises. Then it's up to the provider to make it happen. Competition, contract incentives, and contract penalties (including termination) are powerful motivation for the provider to meet the requirement.

If I want to have copies made at my law firm, I can buy a copier and hire a guy to make the copies and pay him a salary. Or I can hire Kinkos or Staples or any number of other companies to place an appropriate copier in my office, and provide a guy to do the copying. Because lawyers are usually horrible businesspeople, it's almost a given that the vendor solution will result in the right machine and the right people with the right training actually doing the work. I don't have to become an expert in what the best copy machine is, what paper to use, etc.; I don't have to negotiate salary and benefits with the copy guy; I don't have to worry about firing him if the work isn't getting done correctly or on-time, and if Staples doesn't meet my performance metrics, I can bring in Kinkos instead. Amazon takes it further by having expertise in what is supposed to be happening over at the airline, but it doesn't direct the vendor. And if the current carriers aren't getting it done, I'm sure that Connie would love to fly some of the existing 767s, and other competent carriers would love to fly whatever expansion airframes Amazon decides to bring aboard. Little ATI went from 7 aircraft to 24 in just about 2 years, so it doesn't take a John Dasburg or Gordon Bethune to run a viable potential operator. (Running an express(ish) operation reliably isn't within the existing skill set of a lot of little cargo operators, don't get me wrong, but the incumbent carriers aren't the only game in town, and that's good for everyone.)

By the way, this is also why Prime Air will likely never supplant FedEx and UPS for Amazon deliveries, but will become a significant additional provider. This gives flexibility to move volume around if there's a hiccup in one of its shipping options. (It also frees FedEx and UPS not to have to make capital investment decisions based largely on what to do about the Amazon volume, which continues to grow.) I think we will always see the USPS, FedEx and UPS moving a significant portion of total Amazon volume, but how much they do where will differ based on geographic region and service level required. What is absolutely-incredible to me, however, is how much ground line-haul volume here in NYC has moved to the Amazon-contracted line-haul network for last-mile delivery by primarily USPS and secondarily by AMZL. It's really incredible the extent to which FedEx Ground and UPS Ground Amazon shipments have dried up here, with most of what does come by those carriers appearing to be drop-shipped by manufacturers and not coming directly from an Amazon DC. All that stuff -- from DCs within driving distance -- moved in-house. And now Prime Air shipments are layered into the last-mile end of that system -- more every day.

Interesting that Unilode is setting up an on-airport ULD repair facility at CVG.

http://files.constantcontact.com/590216 ... 58919d.pdf

They say the customer is DHL, for whom they have worked for a long time, but I have to think they are eyeing all those new Amazon AAXs flowing through the place as a potential opportunity. (DHL and Amazon both use AAXs, as they are contoured for the 767 and designed to best handle express packages.)





Sorry, I don't know how to make the photos smaller...

http://vrr-aviation.com/projects/aax-container/

xdlx wrote:

Amazon is going to have to buy into a Certificate sooner rather than later. They have to realize that with ABX, ATSG, ATLAS and every other
CMI deal will NOT prioritize their goals, and are only a temporary measure. IF they really want to control their destiny they must acquire a certificate, and bring their team to manage air operations. What is available for sale?

Maybe not for sale that we know of, but DHL north american operations might be a good fit for them. They have the sort facility, aircraft, ramp space and all that at CVG that Amazon would need.

Due to copyright restrictions i can't show you guys the image but heres the link to the source of the image. You can see it just the moment before touchdown completing test flight. https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/8703684

Photo Siegi N

Great! Looks like that ex-Nordair girl needed more than a little TLC. Excellent photo!

With 1327A and 368AA completed, I guess 1373A is next, but I'm still curious why it's coming out so late when it entered conversion 3 weeks before 1327. I'm guessing it has something to do with the winglets. Or maybe paperwork, given its lengthy history of operators, including Garuda.

wjcandee wrote:

Great! Looks like that ex-Nordair girl needed more than a little TLC. Excellent photo!

With 1327A and 368AA completed, I guess 1373A is next, but I'm still curious why it's coming out so late when it entered conversion 3 weeks before 1327. I'm guessing it has something to do with the winglets. Or maybe paperwork, given its lengthy history of operators, including Garuda.

Could it be the needing parts and the condition the airframe is left which is causing the delay?

BOEING777EK wrote:

Could it be the needing parts and the condition the airframe is left which is causing the delay?

Absolutely. But one would think that at the beginning of the 6-month period, they could identify a lot of the longer-lead-time parts that would be necessary. And they've had an extra month to accomplish whatever extra things they needed to get done d/t her condition. But it could be as simple as that...

yochai wrote:

N1327A is scheduled for delivery tomorrow morning to KPSM, N368AA is completed and ready for a test flight tomorrow morning as well

So 1327A is on its way to CONUS. Looks like it flew an initial leg of TLV-KEF (now that's a fun place to stopover!!). http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N1327A

The flight track looks like a diversion, but no diversion is noted on FAware.

And 368AA did its test flight, so we will be looking for it soon. http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N368AA

Crew timed out due to delayed departure related to fuel supply in TLV thus diverted to BIKF

xdlx wrote:

Amazon is going to have to buy into a Certificate sooner rather than later. They have to realize that with ABX, ATSG, ATLAS and every other
CMI deal will NOT prioritize their goals, and are only a temporary measure. IF they really want to control their destiny they must acquire a certificate, and bring their team to manage air operations. What is available for sale?

Amazon is not going to buy a certificate. AFAIK part of the reason they have a right to purchase part of ABX, ATSG, and ATLAS is that they don't want to be declared an airline by the FAA. (I asked this question a few months ago upstream in this thread.)

There is a model in the passenger world that Amazon copied: Capacity purchase agreements between the mainline carriers and the regionals. All the majors except WN and B6 use this model. Yes, at times the majors and their regional contractors do have different goals, but all in all the regionals do what the majors want, especially since there are performance standards written into the contracts, and ultimately the majors do own a fair number of the planes that the regionals fly.

The majors don't have to own a regional airline, however with the exception of UA they or their holding companies all own at least one.

ABX, ATSG, and ATLAS know that if they don't perform to the standards that Amazon has laid out in the contract, Amazon can and will terminate the contracts, with only six months notice. Amazon has them on a short leash.

USAirKid wrote:

xdlx wrote:

Amazon is going to have to buy into a Certificate sooner rather than later. They have to realize that with ABX, ATSG, ATLAS and every other
CMI deal will NOT prioritize their goals, and are only a temporary measure. IF they really want to control their destiny they must acquire a certificate, and bring their team to manage air operations. What is available for sale?

Amazon is not going to buy a certificate. AFAIK part of the reason they have a right to purchase part of ABX, ATSG, and ATLAS is that they don't want to be declared an airline by the FAA. (I asked this question a few months ago upstream in this thread.)

There is a model in the passenger world that Amazon copied: Capacity purchase agreements between the mainline carriers and the regionals. All the majors except WN and B6 use this model. Yes, at times the majors and their regional contractors do have different goals, but all in all the regionals do what the majors want, especially since there are performance standards written into the contracts, and ultimately the majors do own a fair number of the planes that the regionals fly.

The majors don't have to own a regional airline, however with the exception of UA they or their holding companies all own at least one.

ABX, ATSG, and ATLAS know that if they don't perform to the standards that Amazon has laid out in the contract, Amazon can and will terminate the contracts, with only six months notice. Amazon has them on a short leash.

Sure, Amazon can terminate the contracts, but nobody else can fly them. Heck, Atlas wont' ever be able to staff the number of airplanes they're committed to, let alone more airplanes. Same for ATI/ABX, they're niche carriers that pilots don't really want to work for, especially with the relatively low pay at these places and the pay at regionals quickly catching up.

Not sure if it was mentioned or asked before, but N399CM will be leased to Aloha Cargo and painted in their livery. ATI will be flying the aircraft on behalf of Aloha when it finishes conversion in TLV.

Acey559 wrote:

Not sure if it was mentioned or asked before, but N399CM will be leased to Aloha Cargo and painted in their livery. ATI will be flying the aircraft on behalf of Aloha when it finishes conversion in TLV.

RUH-ROH!!

Given that Aloha seems to be having difficulties getting its approvals, training pilots, etc., I'm not surprised that they can't staff their dry-leased aircraft.

However, doesn't this mean that ABX ACMI flying is being terminated, Aloha is dry-leasing an aircraft, and then Aloha is hiring ATI to CMI it? (Or at least CM it?)

The arrangement isn't a transfer of an ABX aircraft to an affiliated entity in competition with ABX in violation of the letter of the ABX scope clause, and in these things, the letter of the agreement is paramount. But it's sure-as-shootin' the next best thing. So, essentially, the ABX flying goes away and is replaced with ATI flying.

Maybe that's what one of our friends meant when he said that the ATI guys were going to be getting a surprise in October. (399 should be done by then...) The pleasant surprise of even more flying, I guess. (I had assumed that he meant that some of the DHL 757 flying was going away. I don't know what's up with that. They eliminated BOS and immediately replaced it with another 757 city. I assume maybe some of the other stuff is going later...but maybe not. In any event, this is better than a 1-for-1 trade.)

On another front, what's up with 370AA, Oracle Acey?

I’m not sure, honestly. The Aloha deal came out of left field so I don’t know how that plays out contractually or otherwise.

As for the 757 flying, rumor has it that the company is looking at four or five additional 757s to put in service. No customer info that I’ve seen thus far, but it may be a case where they’re confident enough to bring the planes on and look for work.

As to 370AA, it appears it is still in RME but I really don’t know anything beyond that. Do you have any idea what the new tail number will be after paint? I don’t head back to work until the end of the month, but I’ll see what I can dig up there.

Also, be on the lookout for some sweeping schedule changes coming up soon. Amazon is beginning to optimize their aircraft routings for peak and overall efficiency. I’ve been expecting our bids any day now, but they’re still not out so that might explain the delay. I don’t think any new routes will come about, aside from those mentioned, but I’ll keep you posted once they finally get our bids out to us. I do know that for AMC, 395 will be handling the WRI-RMS-CAI-RMS-TER-WRI route starting next month.

370AA was supposed to be 393CM, but that reg is no longer reserved. So I dunno. Sold to someone? Atlas (b/c of its going to RME)? We'll see.

Seems like if they're not willing to take the 4th National 757 on spec, it would seem unlikely that they'd grab 4 or 5 pure-freighters on spec. Either they have a contract, an idea of a contract, or the rumour is bs. I was thinking that if DHL 757 flying was going in the other direction, I would be kicking in the door in Seattle to sell them on the idea of running a couple of ATI 757s as a proof-of-concept for service to smaller cities. But that's just me. The 757F is a lot more efficient than the 767-200, owing to the aerodynamics of narrowbodies, but the latter does hold more PAJs.

Good to see 395CM put right to use! And interesting about the upcoming schedule changes.

N1327A


N368AA

I just got another item from Amazon Logistics, and this one went ground through the Sortation Center. While the tracking didn't show which fulfillment center it shipped out of (I should find out on the label once I receive it), I am thinking only packages from the local fulfillment centers and Moreno Valley, CA (ONT6) go directly to the Delivery Station in Chandler.

yochai wrote:

N1327A

N368AA

Great pictures Yochai. You would think they would spring for a wash job before they gave it back to the Customer!

Just to follow-up on 1327A:

Left KEF and flew to PSM, arriving late Thursday night. (Had diverted to KEF on its TLV-PSM delivery flight, d/t crew time-out.) Rolled out of there 1.5 hours later for GYR, presumably to be painted at Dean Baldwin, the first Atlas Prime Air aircraft to do so. ATSG uses Dean Baldwin basically-exclusively, but Atlas has heretofore had its Prime Air planes painted at Premier in RME and Leading Edge in AMA (or received them painted from Boeing as part of BCF conversion at QPG).

N368AA seems still to be in TLV.

travaz wrote:

Great pictures Yochai. You would think they would spring for a wash job before they gave it back to the Customer!

Yeah. Yochai, I should have said that they are great pictures, and the one of 1327A is gorgeous in the light. IAI should buy the rights from you to use it on its brochures and web site.

Acey559 wrote:

As to 370AA, it appears it is still in RME but I really don’t know anything beyond that. Do you have any idea what the new tail number will be after paint?

I forgot to mention that this is the one that was transferred to ATSG West Leasing Ltd., so that probably explains why it won't have a CM tail number. ATSG West Leasing is the ATSG-owned offshore (Irish) company that is converting two 737s at PEMCO for lease to a Chinese airline. 370AA still could be going to Northern Aviation, but it might also be going overseas. It's just so interesting that it appears to be being painted at Premier at RME. The only other ATSG/Airborne 767 in the last few decades that I know of that wasn't painted at Dean Baldwin was 307AZ, which was the second Amazon Prime aircraft painted. It was done at Premier, presumably because Atlas had had the first one, 1997A, painted at Premier (along with a lot of their other aircraft).

wjcandee wrote:

Acey559 wrote:

As to 370AA, it appears it is still in RME but I really don’t know anything beyond that. Do you have any idea what the new tail number will be after paint?

I forgot to mention that this is the one that was transferred to ATSG West Leasing Ltd., so that probably explains why it won't have a CM tail number. ATSG West Leasing is the ATSG-owned offshore (Irish) company that is converting two 737s at PEMCO for lease to a Chinese airline. 370AA still could be going to Northern Aviation, but it might also be going overseas. It's just so interesting that it appears to be being painted at Premier at RME. The only other ATSG/Airborne 767 in the last few decades that I know of that wasn't painted at Dean Baldwin was 307AZ, which was the second Amazon Prime aircraft painted. It was done at Premier, presumably because Atlas had had the first one, 1997A, painted at Premier (along with a lot of their other aircraft).

I’m wondering if maybe that’s the Aloha Cargo airplane? The LAX-HNL flying showed up in our bids (we finally got them yesterday) and so I’m thinking it must be that plane. I suppose we’ll know soon enough but that seems to fit.

399CM (previously 382AN) looks to be the first of three 763's for Aloha/NAS as discussed earlier. Due on line end of Oct'17.

From what I'm seeing, 379CM due out of paint mid Jan'18 and 351CM due out of paint mid May'18 will be the next two 763's to round out the CMI contract for Aloha/NAS. Can't tell what the feed stock for these tail numbers are though. All three will be CMI by ATI.

Thanks, Major! Just a little nit on the above. Per FAA, N372AA is going to become N379CX, not CM, for what it's worth.

N351CM is a reserved number for CAM, although it's past its purge date and doesn't have an anticipated frame associated with it yet. Would mid-May as an expected delivery mean it isn't at TLV yet? Or are we talking about N7375A, which just arrived there, or 387AM, which should shortly? (I usually use 6 months as a conversion estimate at IAI, then add 2-3 weeks for repatriation and painting, and another week or so for ATI to do conformity, etc.)

Also, N374AA ought to be done with pre-sale work in BFM, soon, and I would expect it to move over to CAM and to TLV pretty soon after that.

Which begs the question: what's up with N370AA? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

DiamondFlyer wrote:

Sure, Amazon can terminate the contracts, but nobody else can fly them.

I respectfully disagree. Overnight? No. An orderly transition...yes. Earlier in the thread, I mentioned a few carriers who would be eager for the opportunity. Connie, Doug, Western Global, National, possibly Omni, Northern Aviation, etc., would relish the opportunity. Would those carriers do as good a job? Who knows. (I guarantee you every Kalitta pilot will tell you that they would do as good or better a job of it.) Could those carriers, individually or collectively, handle 20 aircraft over time? Absolutely. Little ATI went from 7 aircraft to 24 in a matter of a year-and-something, and their performance is adequate to the task.

DiamondFlyer wrote:

Heck, Atlas wont' ever be able to staff the number of airplanes they're committed to, let alone more airplanes.

This is an interesting issue. I personally thought that when Billy Flynn said in that conference call early this year that they had agreed to a new contract fairly-recently, and they were having no difficulty recruiting and training an adequate number of pilots to service their contracts, it seemed a bit like he was whistling past the graveyard. Plainly, he would like to maintain and expand his operation without having to raise salaries. But if he gets in a jam, he has two options: (1) raise wages or at least engage in serious enough negotiations to stop the bleeding or (2) slow growth, perhaps by ceding some contracted flying to someone else, which could, at this point, certainly be an ATSG carrier or Kalitta, particularly if we're only talking about a few aircraft. ATI is apparently taking on new non-Amazon flying, and ABX isn't materially growing its net flying, so there's some room there for at least a few more aircraft.

DiamondFlyer wrote:

Same for ATI/ABX, they're niche carriers that pilots don't really want to work for, especially with the relatively low pay at these places and the pay at regionals quickly catching up.

Well, the broader group of pilots in the US don't have to "want" to work for them, only enough to service the business that the company can sell. I can tell you definitively that there are many pilots at both carriers that really like working there, and there always have been. And there are vocal folks who are less happy. Which is the case everywhere in every business. What the percentages are, I am certainly not in a position to say. What I can say is that hiring at the "better" carriers will eventually catch up with demand for pilots, and the music will stop and everyone will have to sit down where they are. In a business in which there are cycles of hiring and vast impediments to changing jobs, one would naturally want to be in front of the best chair when the music stops, so the flows out of the regionals to the ACMI carriers to the majors are no surprise when there is demand at the top. Certainly, there will be wage adjustments at the intermediate carriers in the near term, and we will see how it shakes out.

Atlas Air management are once again suing their largest workforce. A preliminary injunction against the pilots has been filed for what hey perceive as an illegal slowdown by the pilots. This won't end well for them and their shareholders.

Will, are you able to look up this case?

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news ... 1002527253

Looked it up on PACER. Read the complaint. O'Melveny has done its homework. The complaint is over 80 pages, and filled with specifics and statistics to make the case that there is an organized campaign of last-minute sick calls, bogus maintenance write-ups, refusals to bid for open time (which I think is a tough argument to make) and assertions of "fatigue" designed to screw up the carrier's operations. Sort of oddly, they admit the success of this "campaign": military flights have a 200 percent increase in delays of 6 hours or more since Dec 2016, and there is a systemwide 87-percent overall increase in 6+-hour flight delays since December 2016. The attorneys claim that the airline's pilots are flying less than ever, so that it isn't a staffing shortage that's the problem.

I'm guessing the IBT's response is going to be that the problem is a lack of experience and familiarity with Atlas operations by the new pilots that they have been hiring at a frantic pace as their experienced pilots with "tribal knowledge" of the operation leave in droves. Airline operations are a ballet, and until all the dancers have their parts perfected, there will be miscues. It's an opportunity for the union to show that while all their members are of course excellent pilots, Atlas's complex operation requires more than excellent piloting skills. It also opens the doors to bitch sessions of massive proportions: let there be a zillion affidavits of pilots' personal experiences showing Atlas sending pilots all around the world, finding no hotel at their arrival point, "just take a cab" and then being sent 3000 miles in the other direction, ping-ponging around the globe before finally actually getting on an airplane, to present a picture of an operational horror-story that the pilots are just trying to keep up with. No wonder they're tired, sick, etc. My guess is that individual pilots often go out of their way and do things they don't have to do to make the airline function. It's an interesting question whether deciding not to do that anymore constitutes a change in the status quo. If nothing else, dropping that steaming pile in the union's court pleadings could be a lot of fun, and cathartic.

wjcandee wrote:

Looked it up on PACER. Read the complaint. O'Melveny has done its homework. The complaint is over 80 pages, and filled with specifics and statistics to make the case that there is an organized campaign of last-minute sick calls, bogus maintenance write-ups, refusals to bid for open time (which I think is a tough argument to make) and assertions of "fatigue" designed to screw up the carrier's operations. Sort of oddly, they admit the success of this "campaign": military flights have a 200 percent increase in delays of 6 hours or more since Dec 2016, and there is a systemwide 87-percent overall increase in 6+-hour flight delays since December 2016. The attorneys claim that the airline's pilots are flying less than ever, so that it isn't a staffing shortage that's the problem.

I'm guessing the IBT's response is going to be that the problem is a lack of experience and familiarity with Atlas operations by the new pilots that they have been hiring at a frantic pace as their experienced pilots with "tribal knowledge" of the operation leave in droves. Airline operations are a ballet, and until all the dancers have their parts perfected, there will be miscues. It's an opportunity for the union to show that while all their members are of course excellent pilots, Atlas's complex operation requires more than excellent piloting skills. It also opens the doors to bitch sessions of massive proportions: let there be a zillion affidavits of pilots' personal experiences showing Atlas sending pilots all around the world, finding no hotel at their arrival point, "just take a cab" and then being sent 3000 miles in the other direction, ping-ponging around the globe before finally actually getting on an airplane, to present a picture of an operational horror-story that the pilots are just trying to keep up with. No wonder they're tired, sick, etc. My guess is that individual pilots often go out of their way and do things they don't have to do to make the airline function. It's an interesting question whether deciding not to do that anymore constitutes a change in the status quo. If nothing else, dropping that steaming pile in the union's court pleadings could be a lot of fun, and cathartic.

Thanks, as always, for the thorough and informative response. I don't see how this can help the situation at Atlas if management is actually planning on negotiating in good faith. I can only assume this case will be tied up in the courts for months and the pilots and management are currently in negotiations. If they were sincere about negotiating and resolving the contract and ending their perception of a slowdown all they would have to do is sign a fair contract. So, this has to be a ploy to get through another peak season, beaten but relatively unscathed, to enjoy the fruits of a substandard cba for another year. If they were sincere in their efforts to get a contract signed and merge Atlas and Southern Air then getting bogged down in the courts with another lawsuit would probabaly be the last thing they would want to do.

My pleasure! I'm sure they are under pressure from ALL their customers, including military, Boeing, the 747-8 customers, and the 767 customers, notably DHL/Amazon, to get this stuff resolved. They are also under pressure from some crewmembers who just want to go to work, fly, and go home, and who are quoted in the lawsuit as complaining of harassment, scab lists, Hopper lists, etc. With Peak coming, and service quality suffering, they clearly want to tell their customers that they are "on it". I think it's going to come down to a legal decision about what is a status-quo violation and what isn't. If an injunction is issued, I think that contempt of the injunction will be hard to show if there is some, but not a complete, improvement in service and an elimination of the more-obvious incidents of SHOPping, as well as an elimination of the union calls to action. But we'll see.

There's an anecdote in there about crews allegedly intentionally-delaying a military flight of soldiers by days at each stop, along with quotes from the wives' reactions as they await their husbands' return home. It's remarkable that nobody got their butt kicked over that; the soldiers showed some real restraint as they slept on the floor at each stop.

Small note on Amazon flying: It appears that SCK may be going away come November. Not sure if it is temporary for winter (remember the nightmare that SCK was last year?) or permanent, but our bids show SMF rather than SCK starting around the first week of November.

Acey559 wrote:

Small note on Amazon flying: It appears that SCK may be going away come November. Not sure if it is temporary for winter (remember the nightmare that SCK was last year?) or permanent, but our bids show SMF rather than SCK starting around the first week of November.

Speaking of SCK, even though Prime Air flies SCK-PHX, so far my packages that have shipped from the Tracy, CA fulfillment center have shipped by ground. I wonder in what scenarios would packages use that flight? From Seattle perhaps? Amazon is also opening fulfillment centers in Portland as well.

1337Delta764 wrote:

Acey559 wrote:

Small note on Amazon flying: It appears that SCK may be going away come November. Not sure if it is temporary for winter (remember the nightmare that SCK was last year?) or permanent, but our bids show SMF rather than SCK starting around the first week of November.

Speaking of SCK, even though Prime Air flies SCK-PHX, so far my packages that have shipped from the Tracy, CA fulfillment center have shipped by ground. I wonder in what scenarios would packages use that flight? From Seattle perhaps? Amazon is also opening fulfillment centers in Portland as well.

That's a very interesting observation!

wjcandee wrote:

1337Delta764 wrote:

Acey559 wrote:

Small note on Amazon flying: It appears that SCK may be going away come November. Not sure if it is temporary for winter (remember the nightmare that SCK was last year?) or permanent, but our bids show SMF rather than SCK starting around the first week of November.

Speaking of SCK, even though Prime Air flies SCK-PHX, so far my packages that have shipped from the Tracy, CA fulfillment center have shipped by ground. I wonder in what scenarios would packages use that flight? From Seattle perhaps? Amazon is also opening fulfillment centers in Portland as well.

That's a very interesting observation!

As for Seattle I am not sure, Prime Air doesn't fly SEA-SCK and by ground it is over 12 hours. Perhaps the timing of my orders might have allowed my shipments from Tracy to ship via ground; and if I ordered later in the day it may have gone on the SCK-PHX flight. After all, the order has to get to the Phoenix Sortation Center the day before delivery.

1337: That's a very sensible analysis!

wjcandee wrote:

My pleasure! I'm sure they are under pressure from ALL their customers, including military, Boeing, the 747-8 customers, and the 767 customers, notably DHL/Amazon, to get this stuff resolved. They are also under pressure from some crewmembers who just want to go to work, fly, and go home, and who are quoted in the lawsuit as complaining of harassment, scab lists, Hopper lists, etc. With Peak coming, and service quality suffering, they clearly want to tell their customers that they are "on it". I think it's going to come down to a legal decision about what is a status-quo violation and what isn't. If an injunction is issued, I think that contempt of the injunction will be hard to show if there is some, but not a complete, improvement in service and an elimination of the more-obvious incidents of SHOPping, as well as an elimination of the union calls to action. But we'll see.

There's an anecdote in there about crews allegedly intentionally-delaying a military flight of soldiers by days at each stop, along with quotes from the wives' reactions as they await their husbands' return home. It's remarkable that nobody got their butt kicked over that; the soldiers showed some real restraint as they slept on the floor at each stop.

I would think the customers would see this as untrustworthy since they've been telling them and the shareholders in all the earnings calls that there isn't a thing to worry about. Now, they admit to lengthy delays and an extremely unhappy pilot workforce. No matter, this obviously sends a signal that a cba is nowhere on the horizon for the pilots. It's sad to see them let their pride get in the way of running a company responsibly.

Whip: One could actually see this as a positive sign on the labor side. It is a significant public admission by the company. It documents statistically and anecdotally the significant adverse effects they are suffering from what is, at a minimum, a decision by many individuals essentially to "work to rule", and, maybe, a concerted action by the union. My own sense is that those statistics will be used by the union, maybe sotto voce, to galvanize the participants and encourage others to act in the same manner -- "Look! It's working!" -- and maybe exacerbate the situation. So, unless they do get an injunction (and maybe even if they do), the company and its customers can anticipate a rougher Peak than they would have if there was labor peace.

For what it's worth, the statistics don't necessarily prove they are in bad straits, although they do try to argue that they are. The stats show anomalies, but "an 80% increase" in late flights doesn't really tell you how much of a drag it is on operations unless you know what the situation was before. In other words, an 80 percent increase isn't really that big a deal if you only had one 6-hour-late flight in the previous six months. So you go from one to two, out of thousands. It's a big "so what?". But if you previously had 50 late flights because of crew members out of position, insufficiently-rested, etc. (I.e. real operation screwups), and now you have another 40 because of SHOP, that's a bigger deal. Similarly, they have some stats on taxi time that show an increase, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't seem to really affect whether Johnny is going to get his package for Christmas or whether -- as is now their theme -- troops will make it home for the Holidays. I will have to go back and look at that. Anyway, by confessing to operational difficulties, I think the Company has set itself up for the situation to get materially-worse in the short term as more pilots buy into the idea that this is an effective strategy. And maybe the company figures that it's better for that to happen now, rather than four weeks from now.

But, somewhat-contrarily, I think it also provides Management and the Board of Directors some cover with investors. Right now, if management signs a union-favorable contract with the pilots, the various investment funds (some of which ironically hold the funds of a lot of unions) will lose their collective minds. But if the company documents its problems, then documents how much worse they have gotten since they sought the injunction (which will happen), and documents the anger of its various customers (a very-unforgiving one being the AMC), and makes a failed effort for resolution in the courts, it is then in a position to say, "We tried everything. And we did have plenty of pilots and had no trouble recruiting more, but our pilots are unfairly sticking it to us and at some point we have to buy labor peace." That way, management gets to keep their jobs and pilots get a better deal.

Whether this will happen, of course, depends a lot upon how hard management wants to fight and resist. And that, for me at least, is an unknown. An EWAG is that if the injunction fails at this point, and even if it is granted but is only minimally-effective, we can expect to see management opening the checkbook at least a bit more. I'm buying the popcorn.

Update: N387AM has arrived at TLV (from ILN).

CAM aircraft presently at TLV are:
386AA to be 396CM (with winglets; converted and being tested) since 2/27
382AN to be 399CM (going to be operated by ATI for Aloha) since 4/06
372AA to be 379CX, since 7/07
7375A since 9/7
387AM since 9/27
In addition, 374AA, still on AA cert, has been at BFM since 4/18 for pre-sale rehab work.

And it looks like N255CM (the ATI maintenance spare for Amazon Prime) has been pulled off that duty and is now running shuttle flights of supplies from MIA into SJU. Three round-trips in the last 24 hours. Because aircraft can't even contact the SJU tower now until they are 30 miles away (oy.), they have to fly 100 miles in trail and at pre-specified altitudes, limiting the number of flights that can even approach the island. At least that's the way it was a few days ago. Kudos to ATI for aiding the relief effort.

And 395CM left ILN the afternoon of 9/27 and is now at CVG awaiting duty. Another 767-300 in service at ATI.

wjcandee wrote:

And it looks like N255CM (the ATI maintenance spare for Amazon Prime) has been pulled off that duty and is now running shuttle flights of supplies from MIA into SJU. Three round-trips in the last 24 hours. Because aircraft can't even contact the SJU tower now until they are 30 miles away (oy.), they have to fly 100 miles in trail and at pre-specified altitudes, limiting the number of flights that can even approach the island. At least that's the way it was a few days ago. Kudos to ATI for aiding the relief effort.

You'd think the FAA would have a stronger temporary antenna. Some hand held radios have a 10-15 mile range.

wjcandee wrote:

386AA to be 396CM (with winglets; converted and being tested) since 2/27
.

Oops. Transposition alert: I meant 368AA, not 386AA. (86 is now 337AZ.)

wjcandee wrote:

And 395CM left ILN the afternoon of 9/27 and is now at CVG awaiting duty. Another 767-300 in service at ATI.

Saw N395CM late yesterday afternoon. Such a good looking livery.

KCVGSpotter wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

And 395CM left ILN the afternoon of 9/27 and is now at CVG awaiting duty. Another 767-300 in service at ATI.

Saw N395CM late yesterday afternoon. Such a good looking livery.

Yep, and it's out on the road now on an Amazon run. Guess they're doing some short hops with it before trying to run it over the Atlantic for AMC.

I have seen photos of her, but it sure would be swell to see some beauty shots of her here on A.net.

Good thing they’re using it on domestic runs first. 395 is currently broken in DFW after both engines compressor stalled. Hopefully it’s an easy fix and they can work the kinks out soon.

Acey559 wrote:

Good thing they’re using it on domestic runs first. 395 is currently broken in DFW after both engines compressor stalled. Hopefully it’s an easy fix and they can work the kinks out soon.

These converted aircraft seem often to have initial post-conversion gremlins, but so far it seems like they have been diagnosed and repaired within a reasonable (if not optimal) period of time.

wjcandee wrote:

Acey559 wrote:

Good thing they’re using it on domestic runs first. 395 is currently broken in DFW after both engines compressor stalled. Hopefully it’s an easy fix and they can work the kinks out soon.

These converted aircraft seem often to have initial post-conversion gremlins, but so far it seems like they have been diagnosed and repaired within a reasonable (if not optimal) period of time.

Im starting to notice these problems if not most or all American Airline airframes one of them had flaps issues, the other one had it's engines changed, and now compressor issues, the problems with these AA A/C keep adding on and on.

BOEING777EK wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

Acey559 wrote:

Good thing they’re using it on domestic runs first. 395 is currently broken in DFW after both engines compressor stalled. Hopefully it’s an easy fix and they can work the kinks out soon.

These converted aircraft seem often to have initial post-conversion gremlins, but so far it seems like they have been diagnosed and repaired within a reasonable (if not optimal) period of time.

Im starting to notice these problems if not most or all American Airline airframes one of them had flaps issues, the other one had it's engines changed, and now compressor issues, the problems with these AA A/C keep adding on and on.

Not totally surprising, as AA specifically said they were getting retired due to reliability issues. Caveat Emptor.

Spacepope wrote:

BOEING777EK wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

These converted aircraft seem often to have initial post-conversion gremlins, but so far it seems like they have been diagnosed and repaired within a reasonable (if not optimal) period of time.

Im starting to notice these problems if not most or all American Airline airframes one of them had flaps issues, the other one had it's engines changed, and now compressor issues, the problems with these AA A/C keep adding on and on.

Not totally surprising, as AA specifically said they were getting retired due to reliability issues. Caveat Emptor.

Yeah, but I think the inital several revenue flights should be considered basically to be shake-out flights. Everything 777 mentions is something that came up pretty-quickly upon entry into service and was ultimately resolved without recurrence. (Not that they didn't have to do some iterative troubleshooting on one of the frames, but they found the cause finally.)

wjcandee wrote:

Spacepope wrote:

BOEING777EK wrote:

Im starting to notice these problems if not most or all American Airline airframes one of them had flaps issues, the other one had it's engines changed, and now compressor issues, the problems with these AA A/C keep adding on and on.

Not totally surprising, as AA specifically said they were getting retired due to reliability issues. Caveat Emptor.

Yeah, but I think the inital several revenue flights should be considered basically to be shake-out flights. Everything 777 mentions is something that came up pretty-quickly upon entry into service and was ultimately resolved without recurrence. (Not that they didn't have to do some iterative troubleshooting on one of the frames, but they found the cause finally.)

Yeah, they have a lot of new parts, but there are a ton on the right side of the bathtub curve of failure too. I see your point, but Amazon is flying these birds relatively hard and they are not spring chickens.