The ABE airport authority probably doesn’t even realize they lost flights to BWI. We have room for 3-4 cargo spots against the current 5, they only opted to add 1. Just like next year when they add width to the runway for snow removal they are choosing not to lengthen it. All is part of the master plan but they are hesitant to do it. I can understand being gun shy but what has transpired in just the past 18 months in the network should be enough of a boost for the LNAA to take a chance. Last hope would be a cargo facility north of RWY 6 abeam the numbers plenty of room there. I would expect us to stay the same unless there’s a change in leadership and attitude here. Just my two cents from being in the area a handful of years now.

So 1373A, the latest GTI conversion, ferried to IAH tonight (11/17), presumably to start revenue service on an Atlas flight from there.

So that brings the active Prime Air fleet at GTI to 11 aircraft. (And GTI has an all-white dedicated maintenance spare, 1709A, which sometimes helps with Amazon.)

It's 14 at ATI (8 763s plus 6 762s). ATI has a spare 763 (395CM) and 762 (255CM), which are also used on other things, including very-actively on military flights.

It's 6 at ABX (all 762s).

bravoindia wrote:

The ABE airport authority probably doesn’t even realize they lost flights to BWI. We have room for 3-4 cargo spots against the current 5, they only opted to add 1. Just like next year when they add width to the runway for snow removal they are choosing not to lengthen it. All is part of the master plan but they are hesitant to do it. I can understand being gun shy but what has transpired in just the past 18 months in the network should be enough of a boost for the LNAA to take a chance. Last hope would be a cargo facility north of RWY 6 abeam the numbers plenty of room there. I would expect us to stay the same unless there’s a change in leadership and attitude here. Just my two cents from being in the area a handful of years now.

Sucks. I understand the caution -- airports have been burned before by new business -- but plainly the only direction this operation is going for a few years is up. And someone there ought to recognize what a competitor BWI is, and appreciate the value of ABE's location to Amazon's operation. If they build it, they will likely get some more business. If not, BWI and others will step up.

wjcandee wrote:

bravoindia wrote:

The ABE airport authority probably doesn’t even realize they lost flights to BWI. We have room for 3-4 cargo spots against the current 5, they only opted to add 1. Just like next year when they add width to the runway for snow removal they are choosing not to lengthen it. All is part of the master plan but they are hesitant to do it. I can understand being gun shy but what has transpired in just the past 18 months in the network should be enough of a boost for the LNAA to take a chance. Last hope would be a cargo facility north of RWY 6 abeam the numbers plenty of room there. I would expect us to stay the same unless there’s a change in leadership and attitude here. Just my two cents from being in the area a handful of years now.

Sucks. I understand the caution -- airports have been burned before by new business -- but plainly the only direction this operation is going for a few years is up. And someone there ought to recognize what a competitor BWI is, and appreciate the value of ABE's location to Amazon's operation. If they build it, they will likely get some more business. If not, BWI and others will step up.

If Amazon’s master plan is to continue to whipsaw carriers against each other it will inevitably fail as a business model.

I read an article recently ( I wish I could find it again) that summed up Amazons real problem of "Last Mile Delivery" . It said that FedEx and UPS were pushing back on the price AZ was paying for last mile delivery. It also mentioned that the USPS employees Union were complaining about later delivery hours. It was also mentioned that AZ was considering buying FedEx. I don't believe that rumor but the information on last mile is interesting.

Interesting, Trav.

Everybody uses the Holidays as an opportunity to try to leverage some more $$ in their stockings. I'm still giggling about the USPS employee's union. That they have jobs at all is something they should be happy about; if it were not for Amazon, USPS would be entirely-too-dependent on First Class Mail, which has been declining hugely primarily as a result of online bill-paying and email. But for Amazon and packages, Obama would have cut the Service to 5 days a week, with an eye to shutting it down, causing attendant downsizing and layoffs. Now they are in business 7 days a week, employing people and getting more utilization of their facilities. But, hey, what have you done for me lately? Always something to bitch about.

Last mile delivery is something that Amazon has focused on like a laser for at least 5 years. FedEx and UPS have been whining about having to deliver Amazon to homes for forever (at the same time that they aggressively market their home delivery service to other retailers -- go figure) and -- hey, it's the holidays -- made it clear a few years ago that they were going to leverage this for more $$. So what did Amazon do? First, retained local last-mile deliverers to take from its sorting centers to homes (think Lasership). Second, gave USPS enough volume to make it worthwhile to go 7 days of home delivery at a fair price, which the USPS has by and large done very, very well. Third, developed organic last mile in markets in which that would work, using Mom and Pop local delivery companies (AMZL). That latter effort continues to expand in places like Manhattan and Long Island, particularly for second-day. And then there are the initiatives like people delivering Amazon from their cars for extra money. It's all about finding the right mix of established and new, finding the right price, ensuring reliability, and keeping competition in place so that nobody can overly-leverage you. It's what Whiplash calls "Whipsawing", and which most economists call innovation, creating opportunity and supporting competition.

wjcandee wrote:

But for Amazon and packages, Obama would have cut the Service to 5 days a week, with an eye to shutting it down, causing attendant downsizing and layoffs. Now they are in business 7 days a week, employing people and getting more utilization of their facilities. But, hey, what have you done for me lately? Always something to bitch about.

6 day a week service from the USPS is congressionally mandated. The USPS is partially independent, and its leadership has wanted 5 day a week service for a few years to save costs.

wjcandee wrote:

Interesting, Trav.

Everybody uses the Holidays as an opportunity to try to leverage some more $$ in their stockings. I'm still giggling about the USPS employee's union. That they have jobs at all is something they should be happy about; if it were not for Amazon, USPS would be entirely-too-dependent on First Class Mail, which has been declining hugely primarily as a result of online bill-paying and email. But for Amazon and packages, Obama would have cut the Service to 5 days a week, with an eye to shutting it down, causing attendant downsizing and layoffs. Now they are in business 7 days a week, employing people and getting more utilization of their facilities. But, hey, what have you done for me lately? Always something to bitch about.

Last mile delivery is something that Amazon has focused on like a laser for at least 5 years. FedEx and UPS have been whining about having to deliver Amazon to homes for forever (at the same time that they aggressively market their home delivery service to other retailers -- go figure) and -- hey, it's the holidays -- made it clear a few years ago that they were going to leverage this for more $$. So what did Amazon do? First, retained local last-mile deliverers to take from its sorting centers to homes (think Lasership). Second, gave USPS enough volume to make it worthwhile to go 7 days of home delivery at a fair price, which the USPS has by and large done very, very well. Third, developed organic last mile in markets in which that would work, using Mom and Pop local delivery companies (AMZL). That latter effort continues to expand in places like Manhattan and Long Island, particularly for second-day. And then there are the initiatives like people delivering Amazon from their cars for extra money. It's all about finding the right mix of established and new, finding the right price, ensuring reliability, and keeping competition in place so that nobody can overly-leverage you. It's what Whiplash calls "Whipsawing", and which most economists call innovation, creating opportunity and supporting competition.

IMHO from what I see in the Phoenix area Amazon is moving towards more local carriers for last mile. My last few orders all were delivered by On Trac or contract drivers. I needed a document shredder quickly as the one I had died. Got a new one in 2 hours and 15 minutes from the time I ordered it to delivery. The person that delivered the package works in her spare time to make extra money. She said she can do ok in a good day. Also if it is Prime now you are given the chance to add a tip. My point is that I see Amazon becoming the uber of delivery. By offering a tip they have shifted some of the "free" shipping on to the consumer. I wonder about the logistics of some of the Prime orders. I ordered 2 1 pound bags of coffee, 2 pair of shorts, and a flashlight all on the same order. The shorts came by UPS out of Kentucky. The 1 bag of coffee came via FedEx from Dallas, 1 pound of coffee and the flashlight came from Phoenix and was delivered by AZML. I can't imagine what all those shipping charges were. I don't understand how 5 items can end up on 3 carriers. Why didn't Amazon fly everything into Phoenix and deliver from there? There is a Prime air plane based at Sky Harbor. It is a fascinating company IMHO. I also see Amazon's problem more of the rural area's over the urban centers. I wonder if someday Amazon would fly smaller planes (Ah la FedEx) to smaller cities for local delivery.

wjcandee wrote:

creating opportunity and supporting competition.

ah yes, I'm opening my business to compete with amazon right now. thanks for the opportunity to compete, Bezos!

travaz wrote:

I wonder about the logistics of some of the Prime orders. I ordered 2 1 pound bags of coffee, 2 pair of shorts, and a flashlight all on the same order. The shorts came by UPS out of Kentucky. The 1 bag of coffee came via FedEx from Dallas, 1 pound of coffee and the flashlight came from Phoenix and was delivered by AZML. I can't imagine what all those shipping charges were. I don't understand how 5 items can end up on 3 carriers. Why didn't Amazon fly everything into Phoenix and deliver from there?

It depends on the delivery speed and where it's coming from, and even where in the window your order is placed before the internal cutoff time. With 2-day, and with No-rush, they actually do try to combine not only multiple items but multiple orders, if they are made closely-enough in time. But the big issue is what it is and where it's coming from. There are algorithms that try to ensure that most items that are gonna be ordered, say, in the Northeast, are in the Northeast. But sometimes the closest version of that Widget is just plain gonna be across the country and there's nothing they can do about it if they're gonna deliver it to you. What Walmart (boooooo!) has started doing (besides raising online prices between 20 and 200 percent -- boooooooo) is simply marking an item as "Out of Stock" if it has to come too far. So the customer is SOL. Love that "free" Walmart second-day shipping!! I really dislike them now.

What Amazon does is eat the accelerated (or multiple-shipment) shipping cost, because it's not the customer's fault that they don't have the item(s) all in one place so that they can ship it all in one box. Sometimes, it's cheaper to ship it all in one box by a faster shipping method than to ship it by ground from 3 different warehouses -- or vice versa -- and they have algorithms that try to figure all that out.

(Divergent rant: By Walmart cranking the online price of every item I order by more than a dollar over what it was just 4 months ago, if I put together a 20-item order from them, which is typical for me, I am now paying an additional $20 or more per order to offset the "free" 2-day shipping. What a joke. Which is why I now order as much as I can from Target, rather than Walmart, for the kind of household items that aren't shipped from and sold by Amazon.)

The other issue is the business model. The main reason that Amazon has grown so much so fast is the focus on customer delight. Don't just satisfy. Go above and beyond and delight. Yes, we have the thing you are looking for and yes you can have it tomorrow without paying through the nose to have us sell and deliver it to you. So for Prime members, you are not gonna have to assemble $35 of stuff before you can order something. Amazon has calculated that the loyalty they generate by letting you order one bag of coffee when you want it for when you need it, at the delivered price they charge, pays off in the long run even if they take a net loss on an item here or there. And the data seems to bear that out. (Add-on Items were a way to try to push the threshold price for an item even lower -- it's worth stocking and selling it at a fair price if it's going to go in the box with something else.)

CHI87LG wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

creating opportunity and supporting competition.

ah yes, I'm opening my business to compete with amazon right now. thanks for the opportunity to compete, Bezos!

I don't even know what this means. But I love the ee cummings writing style.

Was blasting out of CLT enroute to EWR on 10/27/17. Happened to catch a Prime 767 in the cargo area. I don't remember seeing CLT as a standard destination. Has that been a recent addition or did I miss the boat on CLT's participation somehow?

CX747 wrote:

Was blasting out of CLT enroute to EWR on 10/27/17. Happened to catch a Prime 767 in the cargo area. I don't remember seeing CLT as a standard destination. Has that been a recent addition or did I miss the boat on CLT's participation somehow?

CLT has been in the network for a while. I don't recall whether it was initially served only by 767-200s (which are of course not Amazon-branded), which might explain why you didn't notice. For at least several months, it was served also by a GTI 767-300, which is probably what you saw. In the latest network, which has only been up for a couple of weeks, I have it marked as being served by an ATI 767-200 and an ABX 767-200. No 767-300s right now.

I am not a Walmart fan and have not been in one in a while. I have looked for a few items on line and mostly I get out of stock. I recently looked at a laptop online Walmart and did not order it. I happened to be in the local store and the in store price was $8 cheaper. When I asked the clerk all I got was "I have no Idea what they do online" Typical Walmart. Amazon seems to be able to keep a lid on all pricing even if it is third party.

wjcandee do they base a crew here in PHX for the Amazon flights or do they rotate in and out?

Trav: Unless they have changed it recently, GTI doesn't have a base at PHX. I think ABX has bases only at MIA and CVG. ATI is home based. I haven't analysed the current lines, but if they need to do a crew change in PHX, the airline can send a crew there. Or they can have the crew from a previous flight "overnight" there and take out a plane after rest. So, an ABX crew, for example, could start at CVG, do a couple of segments, and end at PHX overnight, then out in the morning, one or more segments, rinse, repeat, and end their multi-day line back at CVG.

CX747 wrote:

Was blasting out of CLT enroute to EWR on 10/27/17. Happened to catch a Prime 767 in the cargo area. I don't remember seeing CLT as a standard destination. Has that been a recent addition or did I miss the boat on CLT's participation somehow?

I flew one of the first flights into CLT when the station opened, and according to my logbook that was 09/10/16 so it’s been around a bit over a year. Though as wjcandee mentioned, it started as a 767-200 station so you probably wouldn’t have realized unless you knew what to look for.

Acey559 wrote:

CX747 wrote:

Was blasting out of CLT enroute to EWR on 10/27/17. Happened to catch a Prime 767 in the cargo area. I don't remember seeing CLT as a standard destination. Has that been a recent addition or did I miss the boat on CLT's participation somehow?

I flew one of the first flights into CLT when the station opened, and according to my logbook that was 09/10/16 so it’s been around a bit over a year. Though as wjcandee mentioned, it started as a 767-200 station so you probably wouldn’t have realized unless you knew what to look for.

It was indeed a "Prime" painted 767-300F that caught my eye. Quite an achievement to have 30+ 767s running a network in such a short time. Do we know what type of expansion plans are in place? It would seem to me that at some point in 2018, all 40 767s will be up and running. Are they looking to expand beyond that in the late 2018 early 2019 time frame?

Another ridiculous ‘Amazon buying everybody’ article. Enjoy:

https://investorplace.com/2017/11/amzn- ... ation-buy/

Can't see Amazon buying Atlas, ATI/ABX outright. The flying of aircraft etc is just not their business. Atlas for instance does a ton of 747 flying for DHL, Blue Chip Carriers, US Military and other contracts. 747-400F, 400pax conversions, 747-8Fs in addition to 737F and 777F series aircraft. None of that matches with Amazon's all 767 fleet.

Any word on what CAM is doing with 767-200 LN#11? It is being reported in another thread that it was purchased by them in early Nov of this year.

CX747 wrote:

Any word on what CAM is doing with 767-200 LN#11? It is being reported in another thread that it was purchased by them in early Nov of this year.

This is the ex-Vision 767-200 with PW engines that's been sitting in ILN for almost 6 years?

An EWAG is that it's gonna be a parts donor. After all, ILN is CAM's maintenance base, and it's already sitting right there.

While it probably doesn't have as many hours/cycles as other 35-year-old 767s, I'm pretty-confident that it wasn't purchased for purposes of conversion. Nobody is converting 767-200s these days; the economics normally are not there, and there are better conversion candidates if someone wants to convert a 767-200. The PW engines, for example, make it less-desirable as a converted frame, so why borrow the trouble? Of course, if one could buy it for free... But still.

If ATI were thinking of doing some straight-passenger military charters, and this thing were available for a very-low price, I suppose it could be put to that use. But again, there are newer 767-200s out there that might make a better first pax-only aircraft. KMW Leasing, for example, picked up the better of the ex-USAirways/AA 767-200s, which were as much as ten years younger. Had CAM wanted to do that, it could have.

So...given that analysis, probably for parts.

(Then again, one of our members was convinced that a number of ex-AA 767-300s that CAM bought must have been for parts. Those, however, are now flying for Prime Air after conversion. That said, this airframe isn't those airframes.)

Thanks for the analysis. What you said all makes sense. I'm hoping for some sort of Christmas Miracle where LN 11 gets converted or takes to the skies on military charters!

Amazon won't last IMO. Their business model is not sustainable and too parsed. I will probably not survive long aymore in Europe.
It lasted until now but only because commercial sellers have put up with their BS. As much as Amazon is friendly to the end customer, it's a pain in the a** for businesses who sell through them.
The main problem for them now is that many Chinese businesses are being forced out of Amazon in Europe, due to extensive VAT fraud. France is pioneering a very strict policy that puts Amazon in a difficult place.
The UK is also working on it now: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41658436

Once this part of the business collapses, Amazon will become unsustainable in Europe.

CX747 wrote:

Thanks for the analysis. What you said all makes sense. I'm hoping for some sort of Christmas Miracle where LN 11 gets converted or takes to the skies on military charters!

One thing is an absolute certainty: I could be 1000-percent wrong. Shockingly, I know, it has happened before.

My analysis was just an EWAG. It's entirely-possible that we could see it flying again.

One possibility that didn't occur to me last night is that CAM could have purchased it for purposes of leasing to some low-rent non-US carrier as a passenger bird. To such a carrier, it might be a shiny new Ferrari. And CAM does own N712AX, which is a couple-of-years-newer 762ER passenger aircraft, also with PW engines (4E4s as opposed to 4Ds, the former being a rarer type), which bounced around various such carriers over the last ten years, and which has been sitting at ILN for a year, having been out of service for basically two years. Maybe they bought her an older friend and are planning to fix them up and do a two-aircraft deal for someone. One never knows.

Waterbomber wrote:

Amazon won't last IMO. Their business model is not sustainable and too parsed. I will probably not survive long aymore in Europe.
It lasted until now but only because commercial sellers have put up with their BS. As much as Amazon is friendly to the end customer, it's a pain in the a** for businesses who sell through them.
The main problem for them now is that many Chinese businesses are being forced out of Amazon in Europe, due to extensive VAT fraud. France is pioneering a very strict policy that puts Amazon in a difficult place.
The UK is also working on it now: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41658436

Once this part of the business collapses, Amazon will become unsustainable in Europe.

Don't hold your breath. For a long time Amazon collected no state sales taxes in the USA.

They didn't collapse when they changed their computer systems and began collecting those taxes.

Europe will be no different.

wjcandee wrote:

CX747 wrote:

Any word on what CAM is doing with 767-200 LN#11? It is being reported in another thread that it was purchased by them in early Nov of this year.

This is the ex-Vision 767-200 with PW engines that's been sitting in ILN for almost 6 years?

An EWAG is that it's gonna be a parts donor. After all, ILN is CAM's maintenance base, and it's already sitting right there.

While it probably doesn't have as many hours/cycles as other 35-year-old 767s, I'm pretty-confident that it wasn't purchased for purposes of conversion. Nobody is converting 767-200s these days; the economics normally are not there, and there are better conversion candidates if someone wants to convert a 767-200. The PW engines, for example, make it less-desirable as a converted frame, so why borrow the trouble? Of course, if one could buy it for free... But still.

If ATI were thinking of doing some straight-passenger military charters, and this thing were available for a very-low price, I suppose it could be put to that use. But again, there are newer 767-200s out there that might make a better first pax-only aircraft. KMW Leasing, for example, picked up the better of the ex-USAirways/AA 767-200s, which were as much as ten years younger. Had CAM wanted to do that, it could have.

So...given that analysis, probably for parts.

(Then again, one of our members was convinced that a number of ex-AA 767-300s that CAM bought must have been for parts. Those, however, are now flying for Prime Air after conversion. That said, this airframe isn't those airframes.)

Hey now, I still may get proven right. Aged airframes fresh out of a heavy check will work well for a bit, but we are in uncharted territory in regards to heavy 767f utilization on high time or cycle frames and I highly doubt that they will make it to the additional 20 years of service that ATSG claims. At 12+ hours a day use they will blast through the Boeing service life long before then. IIRC that's 160,000 hours.

This surge will be interesting and as long as ABX doesn't take another vacation this year, I anticipate reliability to tank if ops don't let up a touch.

As for ln11, I agree that it is primarily for parts. The Amazon experiment has pressed airframes into service that normally would be the parts source instead of compounding demand. Reminds me of gulf war 1 and Kalitta buying up any 747 they could get.

One thing I am surprised is why I don't get much OnTrac anymore. Currently, I get about 70% AMZL, 25% USPS, and 5% UPS (the latter typically for heavy or high value items). Since I live in Queen Creek, I am surprised I don't get them more often since unlike UPS/FedEx as far as I know OnTrac does not charge rural delivery surcharges.

Question for the more knowledgeable members: Assume for the moment that Amazon and its airline contractors run the 767F fleet for a few years until the airframes age out, or otherwise become undesirable. How much capital reinvestment would it take at the fixed bases, particularly CVG but also the outlying stations, to upgauge the Prime Air fleet to 777F derivatives? I don't anticipate this happening anytime in the next 5 years, and probably not for 10, but at some point it seems like the closure of the 767 assembly line is going to catch up to Amazon, and meanwhile the Prime Air operation just keeps growing. I'm curious as to whether there is any sense in Amazon or airport authorities trying to future-proof their cargo ops areas now, or whether that is just layering unneeded trouble and capital expense on top of the growing pains Amazon and its partners are already facing.

Thanks in advance for your answers!

PHLCVGAMTK wrote:

Question for the more knowledgeable members: Assume for the moment that Amazon and its airline contractors run the 767F fleet for a few years until the airframes age out, or otherwise become undesirable. How much capital reinvestment would it take at the fixed bases, particularly CVG but also the outlying stations, to upgauge the Prime Air fleet to 777F derivatives? I don't anticipate this happening anytime in the next 5 years, and probably not for 10, but at some point it seems like the closure of the 767 assembly line is going to catch up to Amazon, and meanwhile the Prime Air operation just keeps growing. I'm curious as to whether there is any sense in Amazon or airport authorities trying to future-proof their cargo ops areas now, or whether that is just layering unneeded trouble and capital expense on top of the growing pains Amazon and its partners are already facing.

Thanks in advance for your answers!

The cargo ramp Amazon uses in BWI was just expanded for the growing 767 operations. From what I understand, however, it was expanded more than just that. There are six parking spots; four large enough for a 777, two large enough for a 747-8. Only being used for 767s today.

OnTrac has done particularly poorly at our condo. They will not/cannot seem to make arrangements to have a delivery persons register to get into our building as do USPS, UPS, and FedEx. Packages left inside outside unit doors have not had any security problems.

PHLCVGAMTK wrote:

Question for the more knowledgeable members: Assume for the moment that Amazon and its airline contractors run the 767F fleet for a few years until the airframes age out, or otherwise become undesirable. How much capital reinvestment would it take at the fixed bases, particularly CVG but also the outlying stations, to upgauge the Prime Air fleet to 777F derivatives? I don't anticipate this happening anytime in the next 5 years, and probably not for 10, but at some point it seems like the closure of the 767 assembly line is going to catch up to Amazon, and meanwhile the Prime Air operation just keeps growing. I'm curious as to whether there is any sense in Amazon or airport authorities trying to future-proof their cargo ops areas now, or whether that is just layering unneeded trouble and capital expense on top of the growing pains Amazon and its partners are already facing.

Thanks in advance for your answers!

Amazon will have plenty of time in the future to order new 767-300Fs if it so desires. The 767 line is now running off of the KC-46 military tanker order of a minimum 179 frames. That will keep the line rolling for a while. That order is in addition to the FEDEX order/option numbers.

Playing the "What If" game. What if Amazon gets 75% of what IAI is selling during the 767 conversions. That would be 15 years of operations. At that point in time, early model 787s will be 15-20 years old. Amazon could theoretically be the launch customer for the 787-8 cargo conversion program.

What we as a group may want to look at is the future 767-300 fleet landscape. Amazon wants to grow to 100 airframes. Let's take them at their word. Where does Atlas, ATI, ABX find another 60 used 767-300s in a market where they are fighting with multiple other cargo carriers for these birds? All of the carriers flying for Amazon currently fly 767Fs for others. So they are not only looking at trying to source 60 767s for Amazon BUT additional airframes for other customer requirements like DHL or the DOD.

Taking into account other customers, IF all three cargo carriers expand by 10 767Fs outside of Amazon's requirements, that means a need for 90 used 767s is currently being looked for.

Maybe all of what I wrote is nonsense and the fleet planners for Atlas, ATI and ABX are all fast asleep as I type. They could have the next 60 frames lined up from the likes of American, Delta, JAL and only need a phone call from Amazon to start buying up additional lift.

Very quietly as all this takes place, new 767-300F after 767-300F take off from Everett and land at their new home in Memphis.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

OnTrac has done particularly poorly at our condo. They will not/cannot seem to make arrangements to have a delivery persons register to get into our building as do USPS, UPS, and FedEx. Packages left inside outside unit doors have not had any security problems.

The last OnTrac package we got from Amazon I think was sometime in the summer of 2016. Interestingly I hear some Amazon customers in other parts of the Phoenix area are still getting OnTrac deliveries; I wonder why Amazon stopped using them for us here in Queen Creek, since I don't think they have a rural delivery surcharge unlike UPS/FedEx.

Note that we didn't get AMZL until May of this year. What enabled deliveries by AMZL in our city was the opening of the new Delivery Station in Chandler. Previously the nearest Delivery Station was over by Sky Harbor, which our ZIP code was out of the range for local deliveries, thus we got most of our deliveries by USPS. The Sky Harbor Delivery Station I think now primarily serves the central and eastern portions of the City of Phoenix and North Scottsdale, with the Chandler Delivery Station serving the East Valley, and the Tolleson Delivery Station serving the West Valley.

CallmeJB wrote:

PHLCVGAMTK wrote:

Question for the more knowledgeable members: Assume for the moment that Amazon and its airline contractors run the 767F fleet for a few years until the airframes age out, or otherwise become undesirable. How much capital reinvestment would it take at the fixed bases, particularly CVG but also the outlying stations, to upgauge the Prime Air fleet to 777F derivatives? I don't anticipate this happening anytime in the next 5 years, and probably not for 10, but at some point it seems like the closure of the 767 assembly line is going to catch up to Amazon, and meanwhile the Prime Air operation just keeps growing. I'm curious as to whether there is any sense in Amazon or airport authorities trying to future-proof their cargo ops areas now, or whether that is just layering unneeded trouble and capital expense on top of the growing pains Amazon and its partners are already facing.

Thanks in advance for your answers!

The cargo ramp Amazon uses in BWI was just expanded for the growing 767 operations. From what I understand, however, it was expanded more than just that. There are six parking spots; four large enough for a 777, two large enough for a 747-8. Only being used for 767s today.

That throws a potential curve ball to our ALL 767 fleet. It would be much easier for Amazon to ask Atlas, ATI/ABX to source another 20 used 767Fs each. That takes the fleet to 80 767Fs. Amazon could then ask Atlas and Kalitta to each source 10 747-8Fs for the remainder of the fleet. Bringing the fleet to 80 767Fs and 20 747-8Fs.

The 20 747s could be used on high frequency/volume routes and ridden extremely hard due to them being factory fresh. You could even lighten the load on the 767s doing the transcons they currently pull and run a new 747 on the route. This would allow for the older 767 fleet to focus on shorter haul routes with more down time in between flights.

Finding another 40 used 767s wouldn't be too hard. Mix that with easy sourcing of 20 747s and you have a very nice fleet mix.

The CAM dry-leases to Amazon are 5 years on the 762s and 7 years on the 763s. The Atlas/Titan dry leases to Amazon are 10 years, all on 763s. Amazon can review the state of the airframes at the end of those periods and decide what to extend and what to replace.

Amazon isn't going to grow to 100 767 freighters, certainly not soon and maybe not ever. The press release on the CVG facility talked about 100 parking spaces, but ground isn't broken yet on its construction, so there's a long window there, and just because you provide at the front end for the possibility of having as many as 100 parking spaces, which is prudent, it doesn't mean that you ever will need them or build them.

Combine this with the fact that the network will probably always be better off with a good percentage of flights bypassing the sort. When you can fill an entire aircraft to a single destination, the efficiency of the whole deal skyrockets. Why sort stuff at a hub if you don't have to? Targeted flights bypassing the hub means less of a need for giant aircraft.

I think that multiple trips would still be more likely than an entire fleet of larger aircraft. There may be some room at the top end for a couple of larger airframes, but that has to be balanced against the incremental-inefficiency of such a mixed fleet. Possible? Yes. How likely? I dunno.

I think that as Amazon consumes the low-hanging fruit by serving the highest-volume destinations in its distribution system, and gets better at having product within driving distance of most addresses, smaller aircraft will be used to serve smaller cities, particularly if Amazon ventures into organic overnight delivery of its parcels, rather than focusing Prime Air on 2nd-day.

This is an endeavor that's going to be readjusted over and over, I think, as it evolves, based upon real-world experience and unknowable market conditions and changes in technology and consumer preferences. I just drove over to Home Depot on Friday to pick up two items that I normally would have ordered online. I had kind of forgotten that the immediate gratification and showrooming experience of a decent retail store can be kind of fun. Of course, you're often forced to compromise in terms of selection compared to what's available online, but it was something that I might do again someday. The pendulum might even swing back a smidge. Markets and preferences change in unpredictable ways, and Prime Air will have to adapt.

ATI took over for Atlas here at PDX with Amazon.com run.

IMHO the only reason I could see Amazon going with 747's would be the need to long haul out of Asia to supply product being manufactured in China/ Asia and sold in large volumes. I have no idea what that product might be but Amazon has a large line if "Basics" that are all off shore manufactured. Maybe wjcandee can answer my question on volume of the freighters. How much more would a 747 carry VS the 767-300? There is a reason that a lot of freight haulers are using 767's and not some of the many 747's coming out of service. Also is the freight that Amazon hauls limited by weight or volume? I read somewhere that FedEx is limited by the volume of the freight and not the weight in most cases. I wonder about maybe the use of 737-F for some of the smaller cities and as a tag on when you have just a bit more than one 767 can handle. It will be interesting to see where the operators go for aircraft when the supply of 67's drys up. Perhaps an argument could be made for the MOM-F (797)

I think the 747 prospect has sailed. With everyone cheaping out on engine maintenance, and ATSG looking to burn through 200000 hours/yr on their stock the 747 fleet is going to provide power plants for old 767s in the near future. We have already seen Delta buy 6 MD-11Fs just for engines to keep their 767s going. It's a trend that I only see increasing in the near term.

Once you drop those engines off a 747, ain't nobody going to pay for new ones

That is a sharp looking jet. Nice to see the AA metal starting a new life

pdxswa wrote:

ATI took over for Atlas here at PDX with Amazon.com run.

You are correct, Sir! Happened a few weeks ago. That's a very nice picture of recently-converted N395CM, which ATI sometimes uses as a maintenance of scheduling substitute for the Prime Air 767-300s it operates. I love how their livery looks on the 767-300.

Trav: the 747F has positions on the main deck for 30 contoured pallets 88x125 (or 96x125 because of the wider body), but most of them can be built to 10 feet high. In addition, it can take 9 such pallets in the lower hold (but shorter). So 39 pallets, with the main deck ones able to take roughly 150 percent of the cubic volume of those used on the 767 freighter.

The 767-200 can take 19 such pallets.

The 767-300 can take 24 such pallets on the main deck, and 4 in the front lower hold, for a total of 28. The lower-hold ULDs are shorter than the main deck ones.

Bottom line is that the 747F is a big step up from the 767-300. Not quite double the volume, as a practical matter, but a lot more.

And for what it's worth, ideally, one wants to bring cargo from the Far East to the US by ship. Waaaaay more-efficient, because floating stuff is the most-efficient way of sending it. But sometimes, one needs to top up supply or get around a bottleneck or make up for production delays, and then some of the stuff has to come by aircraft. But it's not the norm with most items. Some brand-new, high-value, short shelf-life stuff like certain electronics might have a case for air, but one still wants to bring a launch quantity of the stuff to the US if possible by ship.

Looks like ABE is a mess today, with all Prime Air flights departing on average about an hour behind, up to 1:22 late.

RFD, which has seen its departures skyrocket to 8 per day, seems to be operating smoothly despite the additional business.

One interesting tidbit I don't think I had mentioned: 255CM, which is ATI's spare 767-200, is running for UPS during Peak. Since Monday 11/20, it has been doing one round-trip per day, apparently 5 days per week, between MIA and BOG. That shows a high degree of confidence by ATI in its other 6 767-200s, which are well-employed in the Amazon network during Peak.

N372AN made a successful 2.5 hour air test today, with delivery not confirmed yet but will probably be either Wednesday or Thursday, and meanwhile freeing up hangar space for former S7 VPBVH TBR N1439A , which was finally entered the hangar earlier this morning, after a month of storage due to delayed completion of N1399A (which now looks set to be completed in about a month’s time is all goes to plan)

Thanks for the intel, Yochai! Less than five months for that conversion! That's a nice surprise. I hadn't expected 372AA to be done until next month at the earliest, given the usual turnaround time.

Also, excellent news about 1399A. There were some reports that it was going to be taking several months longer, so I'm glad to hear that the issues are now under control. 1399A has been in TLV since early May 2017.

Is 1511A in process? It arrived the same day as 1439A, and I had been under the impression that 1439A was being done first.

wjcandee wrote:

Is 1511A in process? It arrived the same day as 1439A, and I had been under the impression that 1439A was being done first.

Yes...former CS-TLO of EuroAtlantic is already well underway under conversion, should probably come out around March

travaz wrote:

IMHO the only reason I could see Amazon going with 747's would be the need to long haul out of Asia to supply product being manufactured in China/ Asia and sold in large volumes. I have no idea what that product might be but Amazon has a large line if "Basics" that are all off shore manufactured. Maybe wjcandee can answer my question on volume of the freighters. How much more would a 747 carry VS the 767-300? There is a reason that a lot of freight haulers are using 767's and not some of the many 747's coming out of service. Also is the freight that Amazon hauls limited by weight or volume? I read somewhere that FedEx is limited by the volume of the freight and not the weight in most cases. I wonder about maybe the use of 737-F for some of the smaller cities and as a tag on when you have just a bit more than one 767 can handle. It will be interesting to see where the operators go for aircraft when the supply of 67's drys up. Perhaps an argument could be made for the MOM-F (797)

The airplanes are bulked out LONG before weight becomes an issue. It’s not at all uncommon to operate the -200s around 250k takeoff weight and the -300s are usually in the 290k-300k range for full or mostly full main decks and bellies.

wjcandee wrote:

Looks like ABE is a mess today, with all Prime Air flights departing on average about an hour behind, up to 1:22 late.

RFD, which has seen its departures skyrocket to 8 per day, seems to be operating smoothly despite the additional business.

One interesting tidbit I don't think I had mentioned: 255CM, which is ATI's spare 767-200, is running for UPS during Peak. Since Monday 11/20, it has been doing one round-trip per day, apparently 5 days per week, between MIA and BOG. That shows a high degree of confidence by ATI in its other 6 767-200s, which are well-employed in the Amazon network during Peak.

255CM will operate to BOG until 12/18 and then it will switch to a domestic routing and run the SDF-GSP-SDF route, also for UPS.

wjcandee wrote:

ATSG continues to ready 763s for service with Amazon. (The last thread was closed, hence this new one.)

N373CM (former Qantas 763) just returned from paint in Roswell on Sunday. It was converted (and presumably heavy-checked) by IAI/Bedek between December 2015 and May 2016 and had been sent to Roswell for paint.

I'm curious whether it got an "Amazon" paint scheme, or the traditional ABX or ATI paint scheme, and when it will go into service!

In mid-May, N377CM, another ex-Qantas 763 that had been stored at VCV for two years, went off to IAI/Bedek for conversion and, again, presumably for heavy-check. The last one took six months, but I'm assuming this one will be back a little faster. Bedek says more-or-less 100 days is the norm.

I know Amazon Operates some retired AAL 767-300ER aircraft. Do you think Amazon is gonna buy the 9 new builds and the other 767s that AAL has? Or are they gonna stick with the ones they have.

Kyle: Amazon Prime Air's anticipated fleet of 40 767s includes:

12 767-200s, mostly ex-ABX Air and Delta -- all in service -- and
28 767-300s on-property and on-the-way.

All 40 aircraft will be dry-leased by Amazon. The 767-200s on 5-year leases, the 767-300s at ATI on 7 year leases, and the 767-300s at Atlas on 10 year leases.

Currently, ATI operates 8 767-300s for Amazon Prime Air, and Atlas operates 11.

That leaves 9 more aircraft to come aboard at Atlas. Of those, 6 have been identified and are in various stages of conversion or pre-conversion. So that leaves 3 remaining spaces on my list. Some of those could be AA, but generally the AA ones have been going to Cargo Aircraft Management, the ATSG (ATI/ABX) leasing company, rather than to Titan/Andromeda (the Atlas leasing companies). Atlas has generally been buying onesies and twosies of various lineage.

A tangentially-interesting fact:

399CM needed to divert back to LAX this morning.

N399CM is a recent CAM conversion (was 382AN), which went into service for Aloha Cargo about 3 weeks ago. It's a dry-lease to Aloha Cargo that they can't operate with their own crews yet, so it's being flown on a CMI basis by ATI. It goes HNL-LAX-HNL daily.

It has been doing pretty-well until today.

Right now, it's circling in an air-return to LAX. It started circling about 25 minutes after departure, upon reaching FL250, and then called for a diversion. http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ATN7 ... X/tracklog

I hadn't said much about it operating smoothly the last few weeks for fear of jinxing it.

Looks like the Amazon should have the first phase of its facility at CVG by 2020 (phase 1 is the L-shaped area next to DHL). The full build out of 100 parking spaces is not expected to be completed until 2025-2027. The new master plan is underway currently, so probably not until early next year before we see renderings. Hopefully the plans give more of an idea where Amazon intends to go fleet-wise.

http://www.wcpo.com/news/insider/amazon ... vg-by-2020