Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

KarelXWB · Sun May 29, 2016 10:06 pm

Boeing might stretch the 737 MAX fuselage and put a more powerful LEAP-1A engine on it.

Quote:
Boeing is considering a plan to put a larger engine on its biggest narrowbody airliner in an effort to blunt the runaway success of a rival Airbus jet that outsells it by four to one, industry sources said.

The U.S. planemaker would substitute a modified version of the larger and more powerful LEAP-1A engine used on Airbus's A321neo rather than the LEAP-1B used on the 737 MAX 9, they said.

That would enable Boeing to add range while lengthening the 178-seat jet to fit 12 or more extra passengers and gain a capacity advantage over the 185-seat A321neo, the sources said.

Such plan however will introduce several issues that needs to be addressed:

Quote:
However, the new plane, nicknamed 737 MAX 10 by some in the industry, would bring significant headaches.

Adding the larger engine would mean raising and possibly repositioning the landing gear and recertifying parts, costing an estimated $1-2 billion, according to industry experts.

Having a different engine on the largest 737 could weaken the advantage of commonality with the smaller LEAP engine used on the rest of the 737 MAX fleet, but reflects a growing pragmatism in the face of lost sales.

Source
http://www.reuters.com/article/boein...-commercial-strategy-idUSL8N18Q0JQ

[Edited 2016-05-29 15:10:18]

waly777 · Sun May 29, 2016 10:20 pm

This would be a terribly ridiculous waste of money for an aircraft which will still be inferior to the 321neo and worse, lose the advantage of commonality with the 737 max family.

It certainly would not bridge the sales gap.

Flaps · Sun May 29, 2016 10:28 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 1):
This would be a terribly ridiculous waste of money for an aircraft which will still be inferior to the 321neo and worse, lose the advantage of commonality with the 737 max family.

Without a single specification or performance figure having been released can you elaborate on exactly how this will be inferior to the NEO? It may in fact be inferior. It may not be inferior at all. Perhaps it could even be superior. You seem awfully confident with exactly nothing to support your contention one way or another.

william · Sun May 29, 2016 10:34 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 1):
This would be a terribly ridiculous waste of money for an aircraft which will still be inferior to the 321neo and worse, lose the advantage of commonality with the 737 max family.

It certainly would not bridge the sales gap.

Curious how you know what the airlines think about this aircraft.

XT6Wagon · Sun May 29, 2016 10:35 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 1):
This would be a terribly ridiculous waste of money for an aircraft which will still be inferior to the 321neo and worse, lose the advantage of commonality with the 737 max family.

It certainly would not bridge the sales gap.

Citation needed.

You have presented no evidence that it would be worse. I would stipulate that doing so currently is impossible since we have no real info on any future 737 varients other than the 7,8,and 9.

My guess this is the MoM project varient that recyles 737 bits that is being re-rumored. The commonality issues wouldn't be as big of a deal for most airlines since the 757 did ok along side the 737 while it was economicly viable. This will share massively more commonality than the 757 did (more than nearly 0 is pretty easy).

The problem Boeing faces is that the more changes to make it viable the more it has to sell to pay for those changes. All too easy to scope creep into a whole new plane if you aren't careful. Also all to easy to predict change "a" will sell another couple hundred frames, then in reality those frames either would have sold anyway, or don't sell regardless. Pretty ugly gray area. Notice the giant black hole of frames sold in the bigger than A321 but smaller than 788/A338 that currently exists. The tattered fragments of 767 and A332 sales in the last 10 years just highlight it.

ContnlEliteCMH · Sun May 29, 2016 11:04 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 1):
It certainly would not bridge the sales gap.

Maybe, maybe not. But since it is not likely that every operator who wants the A321NEO can get them when they want them, there may be an opportunity for Boeing to win some sales.

Devilfish · Sun May 29, 2016 11:26 pm

Hmmn...MAX may not be too Mad after all...

...

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 4):
The problem Boeing faces is that the more changes to make it viable the more it has to sell to pay for those changes.

$1-2B does not look too bad if the demand is anywhere near what either airframer forecast...

.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 4):
Notice the giant black hole of frames sold in the bigger than A321 but smaller than 788/A338 that currently exists. The tattered fragments of 767 and A332 sales in the last 10 years just highlight it.

But the proposed stretch equals only 5 pax more in standard configuration than the A321neo. Although the upper limit may be changing now that airlines are going for more capacity and increased range...

[Edited 2016-05-29 16:59:47]

TWA772LR · Mon May 30, 2016 12:19 am

With perspective 737 MAX 7.5s and 10s on the review board, BBD must be shaking in their boots right now.

That said, this could be an awesome aircraft of Boeing executes it right. The larger engines are good and all, but that only gets you so far, improvements to the wing (more area, maybe even span) need to be made. And more emphasis on lighter materials on the aircraft as a while.

SWADawg · Mon May 30, 2016 12:44 am

This Aircraft is probably specifically for Airlines like WN, UA, and possibly AS. Legacy 737 Airlines that need near 757 range that's still shares a common type with the other 737's in their fleets. I could see just these 3 Airlines alone potentially ordering 100+ each.

zeke · Mon May 30, 2016 12:47 am

It would take more than a couple of days or even a few months to spend 1-2 billion, then you also need to build and test it.

Will the market wait for this ?

bunumuring · Mon May 30, 2016 1:09 am

Quoting SWADawg (Reply 8):
This Aircraft is probably specifically for Airlines like WN, UA, and possibly AS. Legacy 737 Airlines that need near 757 range that's still shares a common type with the other 737's in their fleets. I could see just these 3 Airlines alone potentially ordering 100+ each.

Hey guys,
I wonder what impact such a proposal as this (and MAX 7.5) will have on the supposedly imminent Qantas decision to replace its 75 x 737-800s, and it's wider Qantas/QantasLink narrow body fleet requirements. I can't see a MAX 10 being a major component of the QF fleet but a sub fleet of about 12-16 could be useful for transcontinental and near-Asia/transtasman routes. Being able to offer a better A321neo competitor may help Boeing's case.
Interesting times ahead...
Cheers,
Bunumuring.

zkojq · Mon May 30, 2016 1:17 am

If they're going to put the bigger engine on it and thus redesign the Landing Gear and center wing box, they might as well have done so from the outset so that the MAX8 & 9 can reap the benefits also.

Quoting zeke (Reply 9):
Will the market wait for this ?

Only the loyalist 737 customers, I would think.

XT6Wagon · Mon May 30, 2016 1:24 am

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 6):
But the proposed stretch equals only 5 pax more in standard configuration than the A321neo. Although the upper limit may be changing now that airlines are going for more capacity and increased range...

I'm not sure I believe a mere two row stretch unless they can do it without touching the primary structue, doing the whole stretch forward and aft of the wingbox. If they have to mess with the wingbox might as well reach for more and truly gap the 321.

Aesma · Mon May 30, 2016 1:33 am

Now Airbus can wait a bit and strike back if it's launched. Interesting times.

Ruscoe · Mon May 30, 2016 1:49 am

Boeing aren't stupid.
If they build it, it will be because it makes economic sense.
It may or may not be better than the 321NEO, and it may never make money directly itself, but it could have other benefits such as retaining important customers, or allowing sales of Max 8 and 9's which would have otherwise gone to Airbus.

If Boeing don't get a satisfactory response from it's customers for the Max10, then I think we will see the MOM sooner rather than later, and the success of the 321NEO will help define it as a 6 abreast, with wider aisle, and designed from the beginning to go down to 180 seats, when the Max 8 stops selling.

Ruscoe

EA CO AS · Mon May 30, 2016 2:01 am

Would any MAX-9 customers actually keep those orders if a proposed MAX-10, offering more seats and more range, came to market? I can't imagine too many would, unless there were a significant price difference.

If you could comfortably get this to 190 seats with longer legs than the MAX-9 it could be a winner in the marketplace, at least to companies like AS and WN.

TheRedBaron · Mon May 30, 2016 2:38 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):
If you could comfortably get this to 190 seats with longer legs than the MAX-9 it could be a winner in the marketplace, at least to companies like AS and WN.

Range would go down, as it will be heavier, and putting extra tanks in the belly will only make things worse for economics, plus balance will be troublesome...

I think Boeing doesn't have the $$$$ to launch a good competitor to the A321 and possibly the A325 (or whatever they want to call it).

They will milk the cow as much as they can, while digging themselves out of the 787 debts, and then regroup with newer products, by 2021 or so we will know for sure, in the mean time they will do anything to avoid the eroding of their market share (UA 737 700, deal is a perfect example).

TRB

EA CO AS · Mon May 30, 2016 3:32 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 16):
Range would go down, as it will be heavier, and putting extra tanks in the belly will only make things worse for economics, plus balance will be troublesome...

I wonder why the quoted article cites range improvements then? Odd.

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):

The U.S. planemaker would substitute a modified version of the larger and more powerful LEAP-1A engine used on Airbus's A321neo rather than the LEAP-1B used on the 737 MAX 9, they said.

That would enable Boeing to add range while lengthening the 178-seat jet to fit 12 or more extra passengers and gain a capacity advantage over the 185-seat A321neo, the sources said.

zeke · Mon May 30, 2016 3:51 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 17):

Range increase means higher mtow (hence the need for bigger engines), if the mtow remained the same the range woukd decrease.

LAX772LR · Mon May 30, 2016 4:08 am

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 11):
Only the loyalist 737 customers

That's no small number though.

Heck, there's potential for several hundred orders from just the likes of WN/FR/CM/WS alone.
Could probably still toss AS in there too.

zeke · Mon May 30, 2016 4:22 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 19):

Sounds like another a.net myth.

Airlines are loyal to their $$$, they don't give a toss who the buy aircraft from as long as they can make a buck.

seahawk · Mon May 30, 2016 4:53 am

Max 7.5
Max 200
Max 9
Max 10

This will be a huge success. And Airbus will be under huge pressure to improve the A320, but the question is if it still has growth potential or if they will be forced to do a new design.

[Edited 2016-05-29 21:55:59]

BlueSky1976 · Mon May 30, 2016 5:02 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 21):
Max 9
Max 10

This will be a huge success.

Yeah... Riiight.

coughcough767-400coughcoughcough

Boeing is about to make the same mistake the second time. They will be better off making a clean-sheet design. A single, narrowbody fuselage with "heavy" wing to truly replace 757-200/-300 and then "light" wing to replace 737-8 and -9.

-7 is DOA. And so will be the -7.5.

Boeing778X · Mon May 30, 2016 5:25 am

I'm going to throw out my two cents on the matter.

If Boeing does this, Airbus then has the incentive to do an A322, and Boeing WILL lose in the long run.

It would effectively be game over at that point in terms of the MoM as Boeing would effectively have a 737 fill that role.

LAX772LR · Mon May 30, 2016 5:48 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 20):
Airlines are loyal to their $$$, they don't give a toss who the buy aircraft from as long as they can make a buck.

In general, sure... but let's not pretend that there aren't some carriers who've found long-term success with a particular model/family, and for the most part have stuck with it to the exclusion of others as a key part of their business model. Most of the ones mentioned above fit that description.

lostsound · Mon May 30, 2016 5:59 am

It's almost humorous to see both companies come up with additions and advances on their current narrowbodies before really pitching a clean sheet design. It's almost like "No sir, after you!" "No please sir, I insist you first".

enzo011 · Mon May 30, 2016 6:20 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 14):
Boeing aren't stupid.
If they build it, it will be because it makes economic sense.

Erm, 748? Sure they aren't stupid, but the 787 debacle makes you think they are prone to brain farts that takes time to correct. Will this be a shrewd choice or a brain fart?

In any case any model that Boeing proposes can be countered by Airbus improving the A321. If Airbus decided to do a new wing on the A321 and stretch it as well Boeing may be cornered. The reason why Airbus hasn't may because it isn't a easy solution, it may not be there or there isn't a financial appetite for it. But Airbus can wait to see what Boeing proposes before they respond.

chiad · Mon May 30, 2016 6:21 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 23):
If Boeing does this, Airbus then has the incentive to do an A322, and Boeing WILL lose in the long run.

I really hope to see the emerge of B737-10 and A322.
Even though if the B737-10 would't matched the A322 I suspect it still could be financially viable. The market seems to be large enough.
From my point of view the biggest challenge is the development cost of the B737-10 compared to the A322. It would seem that Airbus has the advantage and surly would expect this move from Boeing.

Either Boeing has a decent plan of they're desperate.
Exciting times.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 21):
This will be a huge success. And Airbus will be under huge pressure to improve the A320, but the question is if it still has growth potential or if they will be forced to do a new design.

Growth potential? Are you referring to the B737 or A320 family?

CARST · Mon May 30, 2016 6:27 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 23):
If Boeing does this, Airbus then has the incentive to do an A322, and Boeing WILL lose in the long run.

If Boeing does "this", then they have no problems answering a A322, because they already raised the gear and put the same A321neoLR engines on it. It would be no problem then to stretch it even further and put highter rated engines (like the A322 would need them too) on it.

The only thing that could happen is Airbus going for a new single aisle airplane. But I don't see this happening to soon.

DocLightning · Mon May 30, 2016 6:40 am

Quoting Flaps (Reply 2):

Without a single specification or performance figure having been released can you elaborate on exactly how this will be inferior to the NEO? It may in fact be inferior. It may not be inferior at all. Perhaps it could even be superior. You seem awfully confident with exactly nothing to support your contention one way or another.

In order to match the NEO in terms of performance and efficiency, the 737-10 will need to be able to generate the same lift at takeoff. So we are talking about quite a significant MLG extension, moving the point of attachment to the wing spar way outwards. Basically, this is an entire new platform to be attached to a 737 fuselage. In addition, because the 737 structure is lighter than the competing A320 family member (narrower fuselage), it doesn't quite need the SFC to compete. But if they want to beat the A320, they need to expand the fan on this new larger 737. By the time they're done, they might as well have just done the NSA.

ODwyerPW · Mon May 30, 2016 6:44 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
in an effort to blunt the runaway success of a rival Airbus jet that outsells it by four to one,

I've never been shy about how impressed I used to be by the 737-900ER... However, when I'm wrong, I'm wrong... A321NEO is outselling the 9MAX by almost five to one.

It's time to do something different... strict commonality with other models must be sacrificed...

zkojq · Mon May 30, 2016 6:49 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 21):
This will be a huge success.

The orderbook for the 737-7MAX and 737-9MAX would suggest otherwise for sure. Boeing has a winner with the MAX8. IMO they should focus on squeezing every last drop of performance out of that, rather than spending billions developing an longer derivative who's viability is questionable.

Quoting CARST (Reply 28):
If Boeing does "this", then they have no problems answering a A322, because they already raised the gear and put the same A321neoLR engines on it. It would be no problem then to stretch it even further and put highter rated engines (like the A322 would need them too) on it.

Airbus could respond immediately with a re-winged A321; possibly with a small fuselage stretch also.

seahawk · Mon May 30, 2016 7:07 am

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 31):

Airbus could respond immediately with a re-winged A321; possibly with a small fuselage stretch also.

A new wing is expensive. But I also do not see a MAX1000 without work on the wing...

[Edited 2016-05-30 00:11:33]

bobdino · Mon May 30, 2016 7:19 am

Quoting Aesma (Reply 13):
Now Airbus can wait a bit and strike back if it's launched. Interesting times.

Yep. From the Reuters article:

Quote:
Airbus ... is holding in reserve a plan to retaliate with another A321 makeover, using new wings to boost performance.

The fabled A322.

Back on Boeing, Aviation Week have an article: http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...airbus-leap-engine-737-max-stretch . It makes the claim that the impetus for this was the split 737-8/A321neo orders by Korean, AA, ANA, and Lion Air.

scbriml · Mon May 30, 2016 7:27 am

Quoting bobdino (Reply 33):
It makes the claim that the impetus for this was the split 737-8/A321neo orders by Korean, AA, ANA, and Lion Air.

If true, it's taken rather a while, and a lot of denial, for the message to get through. AA purchased A321s very nearly five years ago!

ERJ135 · Mon May 30, 2016 7:45 am

In the opening post was a quote stating that Boeing notes its rival is outselling its 737 series by 4 to 1. Any success with a potential Max10 would hardly change that defecit.
The neo appears to be exceeding its projected fuel savings while we understand that the Max has a way to go to match this.
Perhaps its this area that needs to be addressed, just imagine the red faces if WN were to place a 300 unit order with the A321neo!

KarelXWB · Mon May 30, 2016 7:50 am

Quoting waly777 (Reply 1):
This would be a terribly ridiculous waste of money for an aircraft which will still be inferior to the 321neo and worse, lose the advantage of commonality with the 737 max family.

It would however put some pressure on the A321 margins. Airbus now charges a high premium on the largest A320 family member, a luxury position they may lose with the arrival of the 737 MAX-10.

Quoting waly777 (Reply 1):
It certainly would not bridge the sales gap.

If it sells another 1,000 737 copies over the poor selling 737 MAX-9, and put some pressure on the A321 profit margins, it would be 'good enough'.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 21):
And Airbus will be under huge pressure to improve the A320

zeke · Mon May 30, 2016 8:06 am

Quoting bobdino (Reply 33):
The fabled A322

Airbus has for a long time been working on a new electric wing for the A320 series, it is more than just a new wing, it is a architecture shift from the A320 towards the A350. Currently the A320/A330/A340 have the same base architecture, where the A380/A400/A350 have the same base architecture. Longer term they want to move everything towards the A350 architecture base. What it will mean on the A320 series is the replacement of hardware specific computers for different roles, like fly by wire, to these becoming software applications on a server like the A380/A350. There has been significant sums already spent on this as part of their annual R&D budget. What they will be waiting for is for the workload on other programs to reduce to move the engineers over to that task.

Depending on how much they want to spend, they may get an incremental aerodynamic improvement by replacing current actuators and control surfaces keeping the core wing to enable adaptive lift control like A350. This will make projects like an improved A321 a very competitive space for Boeing to enter.

http://www.sagem.com/media/20110307_...t-test-electrical-aileron-actuator

We will need to wait for more details on what Boeing is planning with the 737 MAX 10, however after the A330neo and A350-1000 are up and running, it would seem the next logical project for Airbus to work on. It could bring to the market an aircraft very similar in size as the 757-200 to the market using much the same thrust as the 757-200 with lower fuel burn.

Its going to be a very interesting race to see how each company positions their products. Neither seems to very interested in replacing the 757 range/payload, rather a subset or routes where they will sell more frames.

hz747300 · Mon May 30, 2016 8:18 am

Could they downscale a 788/9/10 design to a single aisle ~75X prototype which could have a common type rating with the 78X series of aircraft? I agree that steroiding a 737 MAX up, may not be the best way to go. I think there are ways to make this work to fit the niche and ammortize a lot of the design work which has already been completed.

Ruscoe · Mon May 30, 2016 9:00 am

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 26):
Erm, 748?

The 748 puts pressure on 380 margins and it is likely to be built for a long time as a freighter.

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 16):
I think Boeing doesn't have the $$$$ to launch a good competitor

A look at their financial statements will show you they can. They are supporting their investors with a huge share buy back program. They could argue that spending that money on a new design is also supporting their investors.

Ruscoe

KarelXWB · Mon May 30, 2016 9:05 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 39):
A look at their financial statements will show you they can. They are supporting their investors with a huge share buy back program. They could argue that spending that money on a new design is also supporting their investors.

Except the board fails to see a business case behind the whole MoM project, hence they're not going to spend $10 billion on a new clean-sheet project.

Faro · Mon May 30, 2016 9:14 am

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 5):
Maybe, maybe not. But since it is not likely that every operator who wants the A321NEO can get them when they want them, there may be an opportunity for Boeing to win some sales.

We tend to forget that if either of A or B were to be obliterated from the face of the earth, the remaining manufacturer would find it impossible to fulfill global narrowbody demand in a timely manner. Production capacity is quite constrained in time.

Quoting SWADawg (Reply 8):
This Aircraft is probably specifically for Airlines like WN, UA, and possibly AS. Legacy 737 Airlines that need near 757 range that's still shares a common type with the other 737's in their fleets. I could see just these 3 Airlines alone potentially ordering 100+ each.

Yes, B's aim is likely not so much to make an appreciable dent in the A321NEO's commercial supremacy as much as to hang on to their traditional loyalist American customers in the +180 seat market...

Faro

crimsonchin · Mon May 30, 2016 9:22 am

But why are Boeing doing this? The MAX competes with the NEO just fine, and the NG is still better than they NEO, no? Wonder why they are expending cash to improve their position when Boeing say they have the superior product. Hmmm

parapente · Mon May 30, 2016 9:28 am

Reply 37 Zeke.
That was a really interesting link you provided.Thankyou.I note the 2015 (ish) full flight test for the 'more electric' wing.I wonder if this happened?Certainly Airbus have said nothing if they have.

94717 · Mon May 30, 2016 9:52 am

How much has Boeing already spent on MAX? 2 Billion?

And now another 2 billion?

Total 4 Billion?

How much is clean cheet?

But I suppose that the sales of the MAX so far already pays back for it....

B777LRF · Mon May 30, 2016 10:12 am

All I get out this, is Boeing conceding the Leap-1B is inferior to the -1A, but we all knew that.

As for a -10, that would truly be a case of 'when pigs fly'. If it needs a new MLG, it needs a new centre wing box. A new wing box means new attachment of the wings and fuselage, and now we're really skating on thin ice. Even more so if Boeing wish to certify this as 'just' another variant of the 737-100. I cannot see that happening.

Last, but certainly not least, if Boeing does launch this mad-max, how much do you think Airbus will have to spend on the A321neo to blow it clean out of the water? Not much at all, compared to what Boeing need to spend to make something that might, if only just barely, be competitive with the present A321neo.

Natflyer · Mon May 30, 2016 10:19 am

Clickbait name of thread? I have yet to see a shred of 737 MAX 10 details emerge in this thread...

KarelXWB · Mon May 30, 2016 10:22 am

Quoting olle (Reply 44):
How much has Boeing already spent on MAX? 2 Billion?

And now another 2 billion?

Total 4 Billion?

In hindsight, Boeing should have repositioned the landing gear during the development of the MAX.

[Edited 2016-05-30 04:18:27]

Spiderguy252 · Mon May 30, 2016 10:59 am

In my opinion Boeing should pull down the curtains on further developments of the 737 programme. There is no further growth potential in the frame, and they are much better off designing a clean sheet - whether the MoM or whatever else.

If they do so, it gives them a nice opportunity to continue to reign over the market over the long term rather than play second fiddle to Airbus while the latter sell the A320/A321/A322?-NEO at will.

seahawk · Mon May 30, 2016 11:01 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 47):
In hindsight, Boeing should have repositioned the landing gear from the beginning.

Many said this.

Quoting B777LRF (Reply 45):
how much do you think Airbus will have to spend on the A321neo to blow it clean out of the water?

Not a penny, 12 extra seats will be compensated by greater weight and probably a bit "over powered" engines to make the thing take-off without having to work on the wing as well.

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