Will ANA Order More A380s On Top Of The 3?

United Airline · Fri May 27, 2016 10:08 am

I think they will need more than 3 A380s to make the A380 fleet economical. 3 is too few. Maybe up to 6-10 at least?

MrHMSH · Fri May 27, 2016 10:21 am

I'm going to be controversial and say no. They're probably not that interested in the plane, but more interested in the Skymark aspect of the deal. It may prove to be a hit, but I'm not sure it'll be anything more than 'alright' for them. It could be bad though...

IndianicWorld · Fri May 27, 2016 1:06 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 1):
I'm going to be controversial and say no. They're probably not that interested in the plane, but more interested in the Skymark aspect of the deal. It may prove to be a hit, but I'm not sure it'll be anything more than 'alright' for them. It could be bad though...

I tend to think you are right on the money there.

Its not really ideal to have only 3 A380's in the fleet but its not easy to see any pressing priorities that would require more at this stage.

LAXintl · Fri May 27, 2016 1:20 pm

Keep in mind ANA as the airline wont be flying the A380.
Aircraft are being acquired by the group and planned to be given to lower cost subsidiary like Air Japan or Vanilla Air.

eal · Fri May 27, 2016 1:27 pm

The last I heard the A380s are going to be put on the leisure heavy routes to Hawaii, I wouldn't expect more aircraft as 3 is perfectly fine to fulfill this mission. ANA is not going to be flying these whales to Hong Kong or Seoul.

frmrCapCadet · Fri May 27, 2016 1:59 pm

Airbus has every incentive to see this experiment succeed. A success will provide their sales crew with data for other airlines to consider very small fleets. Ideally a lessor would be able to provide backup, training, and maintenance for very small fleets.

a380787 · Fri May 27, 2016 2:32 pm

Speaking of Hawaii 380s, are there any plans for HND to allow A380 operations ? NH's dream would come true to be able to operate the whale on HND-HNL instead of just NRT-HNL.

That said, that represents a major increase in capacity over what NH+UA operates between Japan and Hawaii today. Once the A380s arrive, I fully expect UA to exit NRT-HNL and entirely hand it over to their JV partner.

mjoelnir · Fri May 27, 2016 2:47 pm

I think there is far to much importance placed on the Skymark issue regarding the A380. The former Skymark white tails are sold to Emirates. IMO Airbus would have been satisfied with any deal that would placed their wide bodies at Skymark.
I think there is space to consider that the A380 deal is serious and well thought out by ANA. I could well imagine ANA buying some more, but only after the experience of operating those birds they ordered now.

adamblang · Fri May 27, 2016 3:00 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 6):
That said, that represents a major increase in capacity over what NH+UA operates between Japan and Hawaii today. Once the A380s arrive, I fully expect UA to exit NRT-HNL and entirely hand it over to their JV partner.

This make sense. I know NRT is still considered a hub by the company but NRT's been drawing down in favor of SFO flying and, after NRT-SIN ends, I believe only NRT-ICN and NRT-HNL are the only UA NRT flights that that don't touch another UA hub.

HeeseokKoo · Fri May 27, 2016 3:10 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 6):
are there any plans for HND to allow A380 operations ?

ANA has a huge influence on the authorities, therefore I think HND airport will eventually allow daytime A380 flights. Then we may see them on domestic flights or international out of HND.

Stitch · Fri May 27, 2016 4:11 pm

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
I think they will need more than 3 A380s to make the A380 fleet economical. 3 is too few.

It depends on how they are deployed. If they go to Air Japan for "beach routes", then three will be plenty (if not too much).

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 7):
I think there is far to much importance placed on the Skymark issue regarding the A380. The former Skymark white tails are sold to Emirates. IMO Airbus would have been satisfied with any deal that would placed their wide bodies at Skymark.

Airbus was the largest unsecured creditor for Skymark so they were going to determine which restructuring deal was approved. While it is true that ANA is the minority investor in the new group, the press strongly implied that the group led by Intrepid Aviation (who was a creditor on Skymark's A330s) was going to win until ANA agreed to take the A380s. The Intrepid group had Delta as their minority investor and if they had won, would have given Delta a strong foothold in the market.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 7):
I think there is space to consider that the A380 deal is serious and well thought out by ANA. I could well imagine ANA buying some more, but only after the experience of operating those birds they ordered now.

I am sure ANA has been evaluating the A380 and the 747-8. But despite claims years ago by CHRISBA777ER that ANA had signed an undisclosed MoU for five, ANA management had consistently stated that neither airframe fit their operating model and I do not believe that has fundamentally changed even with the A380 now on order by the group. And now that the Skymark NTUs have been taken-up by Emirates, I am not 100% convinced the three A380s will not be converted to A320neo family airframes at some future date.

[Edited 2016-05-27 09:13:20]

SQ22 · Fri May 27, 2016 7:20 pm

We had a long thread discussing that and back when the order was announced it was already clear that they are going to introduce them in the fiscal year 2018, so this would have been a bit late for the BC frames.

Nothing has changed, except the BC frames found a home in the meantime. I think it is more than doubtful that NH has just ordered the 3 frames because of the BC frames.

Link to old thread:

ANA To Buy Airbus A380 Jumbo Jets, Boost Hawaii? (by Sooner787 Dec 31 2015 in Civil Aviation)#1

blueflyer · Fri May 27, 2016 7:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Airbus was the largest unsecured creditor for Skymark so they were going to determine which restructuring deal was approved. While it is true that ANA is the minority investor in the new group, the press strongly implied that the group led by Intrepid Aviation (who was a creditor on Skymark's A330s) was going to win until ANA agreed to take the A380s. The Intrepid group had Delta as their minority investor and if they had won, would have given Delta a strong foothold in the market.

ANA's main objective in bidding for Skymark was to keep Delta out. To win, ANA needed Airbus support. As far as ANA is concerned, committing to three A380s is a better deal than losing revenue to a larger Delta presence in the market.

All that to say ANA doesn't even need to make a profit on the operation of its A380s. As long as the cumulative losses are lower than their estimate of lost revenue if Intrepid had won the bidding for Skymark, ANA will consider the acquisition a win.

If the A380s exceed expectations and turn in a sizable profit, follow-on orders are indeed possible. If...

[Edited 2016-05-27 12:54:32]

N328KF · Fri May 27, 2016 7:53 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 7):
The former Skymark white tails are sold to Emirates.

Emirates bought them? As-is, or did they reconfigure them? How did this work -- ANA gave up their slots so that they could get frames more to their liking, and the Skymark frames were deemed OK for Emirates' needs?

mercure1 · Fri May 27, 2016 8:00 pm

Quoting SQ22 (Reply 11):
We had a long thread discussing that and back when the order was announced

Here is the thread when order was announced
ANA Confirms A380 Order (by LAXintl Jan 28 2016 in Civil Aviation)

Your linked thread is prior to the event.

SQ22 · Fri May 27, 2016 8:02 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 13):

Emirates bought them? As-is, or did they reconfigure them? How did this work -- ANA gave up their slots so that they could get frames more to their liking, and the Skymark frames were deemed OK for Emirates' needs?

Yes, see here, post 74 ff.

Airbus Wins One Order For 2 A380s. (by titus95 Apr 11 2016 in Civil Aviation)#1

mfranjic · Fri May 27, 2016 8:10 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 13):
Emirates bought them? As-is, or did they reconfigure them?

In the mid-April 2016, it was published that the Emirates has acquired those two, ex. BC´s: MSN162 and MSN167, frames and that the aircraft will be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2017. Although the order had a list value of $865 million, it's likely Airbus offered generous discounts to push the deal to completion. Industry sources told Reuters that Emirates likely paid no more than half the price for the A380s...

The aircraft are going to have two-class, C58 Y557, cabin configuration and will be of type Airbus A380-842, powered by four

. Trent 972B-84, three-shaft turbofans (fan diameter: 116 in / 2946,4 mm; engine architecture: 1F-8IPC-6HPC ^ 1HPT-1IPT-5LPT), each 356,81 kN / 36.384 kgf / 80.214 lbf. The Trent 900s for the Emirates are also the first to be built to the new EP3 (enhanced performance 3) standard ...

Nice regards

Mario

Revelation · Fri May 27, 2016 8:30 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 13):
Emirates bought them?

Yes.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 13):
As-is, or did they reconfigure them?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...fleet-with-orphaned-skymark-planes says

Quote:

The two aircraft will be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2017 in a two-class configuration and are among 33 due to arrive at Emirates by the end of that year, Tim Clark, the carrier’s president, said in a statement confirming plans report earlier by Bloomberg.

So it seems Airbus will re-configure them to EK's two-class configuration and deliver them in Q4 2017.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 13):
How did this work -- ANA gave up their slots so that they could get frames more to their liking, and the Skymark frames were deemed OK for Emirates' needs?

I'm not sure what ANA slots have to do with your question. As above, their slots are in 2018. The Skymark frames were built a while ago. The Skymark order was cancelled by Airbus long before ANA got involved with Skymark.

DfwRevolution · Fri May 27, 2016 8:38 pm

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 5):
Airbus has every incentive to see this experiment succeed. A success will provide their sales crew with data for other airlines to consider very small fleets. Ideally a lessor would be able to provide backup, training, and maintenance for very small fleets.

Is there ever a scenario in which a manufacturer doesn't have an incentive for their customer to succeed?

(comment made in jest)

frmrCapCadet · Sat May 28, 2016 1:05 am

Dfw... Continued manufacture of the 380 could well depend upon a few more orders per year. So yes, Airbus does have more incentive than normal. And as well those extra orders could depend on a number of small fleets.

[Edited 2016-05-27 18:07:06]

karungguni · Sat May 28, 2016 1:44 am

Do we know what happened to the third Skymark frame?

Ab345 · Sat May 28, 2016 4:28 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
It depends on how they are deployed.

Bjorn has the answer to that:

ANA turned some heads by buying the three Airbus A380 coming out the Skymark bankruptcy. The carrier will use these aircraft for its re-expansion in the leisure market, currently focused on Honolulu flights. The expansion will be carried out by the newly formed Vanilla Air LCC subsidiary.

http://leehamnews.com/2016/05/17/ana-ceo-opens-istat-asia-2016/

XT6Wagon · Sat May 28, 2016 4:33 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 18):
Is there ever a scenario in which a manufacturer doesn't have an incentive for their customer to succeed?

Weapons manufacturers prefer stalemates to victory. Can't have an Arms race if there is no one to race against.

Aither · Sat May 28, 2016 5:01 am

All the 3 will not fly to Hawaii only. ANA should take the opportunity to try the aircraft on other routes. Where it works, it works great. But considering how risk adverse the Japanese can be, I would not bet they will order more, even if it's a big mistake in my opinion as the Japanese are less and less loyal to their home carriers. Good for the all other carriers that make $$$ out of Japan.

[Edited 2016-05-27 22:02:24]

United Airline · Sat May 28, 2016 7:11 am

You don't see much if any celebration or big announcement on the ANA website

They can be more innovative and get up to 10 and fly them to CDG, LHR, LAX, HNL, HKG, JFK etc

Seems that japanese airlines are going down. In the 80s, 90s JAL was HUGE with the largest B747 fllet. Now zero jumbo or A380. And the B777-300ER fleet are small

flylonghaul · Sat May 28, 2016 7:38 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 24):

Seems that japanese airlines are going down. In the 80s, 90s JAL was HUGE with the largest B747 fllet. Now zero jumbo or A380. And the B777-300ER fleet are small

Profitability is preferable to prestige

aviationaware · Sat May 28, 2016 9:34 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 24):
Seems that japanese airlines are going down.

So then most US airlines were never up there?

neutronstar73 · Sat May 28, 2016 3:29 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 24):

Seems that japanese airlines are going down. In the 80s, 90s JAL was HUGE with the largest B747 fllet. Now zero jumbo or A380. And the B777-300ER fleet are small

They don't need the overcapacity. Japanese airlines going down? That's a laugh..and a lot of wishful thinking on your part.

eal · Mon May 30, 2016 5:14 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 24):

JAL and ANA had large international 747 fleets mostly for their range and for high density intra-Asian flying. There was a time where JAL was flying 747s from KIX to CDG, and that irresponsibility almost destroyed them. The 787 and 77W have allowed the Japanese carriers to expand more origami ally and healthy then ever. They have the same range, if not more, then the old 747's, and are smaller and more efficient. We're seeing the relaunch/launch of cities like MEX, BOS and BRU that wherent profitable on the larger aircraft of before. JAL and ANA have even begun international expansion out of KIX, perhaps NGO is next? It's all very exciting to be seeing such a dramatic change in Japanese aviation, ANA will put the 380s to good use in HNL.

United Airline · Mon May 30, 2016 8:12 am

I think they will perhaps get up to 6-10 A380s and also fly them to LHR, LAX, JFK, HKG etc. 3 is simply too few to be economical.

Did ANA/JAL downsize at all compare to the 80/90s?

aviationaware · Tue May 31, 2016 3:56 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 29):
Did ANA/JAL downsize at all compare to the 80/90s?

No, ANA upsized massively over the past few years. JAL downsized massively, but their peak was not in 80s/90s but around the financial crisis. JAL had a huge buildup especially in international capacity between 2005 and 2008, which was then cut again during restructuring.

jsnww81 · Tue May 31, 2016 5:31 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 24):
You don't see much if any celebration or big announcement on the ANA website

That's because the plane isn't really something ANA wanted. They want more slots at Haneda, and they get them, indirectly, by taking these planes.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 24):
They can be more innovative and get up to 10 and fly them to CDG, LHR, LAX, HNL, HKG, JFK etc

You know what's innovative? Using the 787 to open up routes to Helsinki, San Diego and Boston (JAL) or San Jose, Seattle, Mexico City, Brussels and Dusseldorf (ANA). All routes that either hadn't been served, or had but with significant overcapacity and losses.

Buying a bunch of inappropriately-sized aircraft and sending them to big cities regardless of demand? Not innovative. That's the approach Malaysia Airlines took. Working spectacularly for them, isn't it? JAL tried the let's-fly-744s-everywhere-on-earth game for two decades, and look where it got them. As flylonghaul said, profit > prestige.

In this thread and literally dozens of others over the years, you seem completely fixated on the idea of legacy carriers flying VLAs on legacy routes while providing legacy service "Will UA resume free alcohol in Y? will UA restart Bangkok? will UA bring back F service on hundreds of routes?" - how many hundreds of times have you asked these questions?

It's ok if you don't like the answers you're getting, but they aren't going to change. The dynamics of the industry have shifted. It's time to move on.

HB-IWC · Tue May 31, 2016 6:25 am

Quoting jsnww81 (Reply 31):
You know what's innovative? Using the 787 to open up routes to Helsinki, San Diego and Boston (JAL) or San Jose, Seattle, Mexico City, Brussels and Dusseldorf (ANA). All routes that either hadn't been served, or had but with significant overcapacity and losses.

You are of course completely right, but as you said ...

Quoting jsnww81 (Reply 31):
In this thread and literally dozens of others over the years, you seem completely fixated on the idea of legacy carriers flying VLAs on legacy routes while providing legacy service "Will UA resume free alcohol in Y? will UA restart Bangkok? will UA bring back F service on hundreds of routes?" - how many hundreds of times have you asked these questions?

I have long since stopped wasting my time with this poster. He completely ignores pertinent remarks regarding his preposterous proposals and anything that isn't large enough, does not come with large cabins of First Class Suites, does not feature Champagne and Caviar in all classes and, most of all, does not pass through Hong Kong, is bound to be ridiculed as inadequate and on the verge of extinction!

NH currently mainly operates regionally configured B763ERs on its Tokyo to Hong Kong routes. Surely everyone understands that this route is in dire need of A388 service with a dozen First Class Suites, at least a 100 fully flat direct aisle access business seats at least twice daily. Jeeeeezzzzz ... these NH executives are complete morons for not getting that!

Aaron747 · Tue May 31, 2016 7:10 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 29):
I think they will perhaps get up to 6-10 A380s and also fly them to LHR, LAX, JFK, HKG etc. 3 is simply too few to be economical.

The three they are getting will not even fly in ANA colors, as they will be operated by a subsidiary. So, yeah, no - service to the places you mention will never come. That's what they have the 787-9 and 77W for.

United Airline · Tue May 31, 2016 7:29 am

How many planes did JAL have at its peak compare to now? Hope they will do a comeback

Aaron747 · Tue May 31, 2016 8:44 am

^
Not sure why that matters. You started this thread to discuss "ANA" A380s, right?

Someone83 · Tue May 31, 2016 8:54 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 34):
Hope they will do a comeback

They have already done your "comeback" as they are now profitable and successful.

mjoelnir · Tue May 31, 2016 10:38 am

Quoting jsnww81 (Reply 31):
That's because the plane isn't really something ANA wanted. They want more slots at Haneda, and they get them, indirectly, by taking these planes.

That is a a.net guess. In the meantime Airbus sold the Skymark frames everybody thought would go to ANA and ANA is getting new builds later.
I think with ANA being a Boeing airline any wide body order from Airbus would have been a reason for Airbus to contract with ANA.

It could well be that the 3 frames A380 order is well thought out by ANA for the routes they expect to use them for.

[Edited 2016-05-31 03:39:10]

United Airline · Tue May 31, 2016 11:11 am

I thought the demand for F class is high between HKG and NRT/HND. Well at least for CX yes. Not sure about ANA,

speedbored · Tue May 31, 2016 11:17 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 37):
That is a a.net guess. ...
It could well be that the 3 frames A380 order is well thought out by ANA for the routes they expect to use them for.

True, and we'll never know for certain unless Airbus or ANA admit it, or someone puts their job on the line by publishing details of the Skymark takeover contracts.

But, it seems to be pretty common knowledge within the industry that this particular order was a quid-pro-quo for Airbus supporting ANAs Skymark purchase bid - I would, at the very least, have expected John Leahy to quash the rumours if they were not actually true. Better PR for Airbus if ANA decided to buy A380s, rather then being "coerced".

I suspect that the fact that EK have taken the specific frames allocated to Skymark has a lot more to do with timing than anything else.

Will ANA order any more? Maybe - I could see them being of use on a number of ANA routes in future. But I doubt ANA will do anything until they have seen how things work out in-service with the initial 3 frames.

A lot of people have commented that 3 is not a sufficiently large fleet to be viable. These days, with the option to outsource almost all of the support services that previously required efficiency of scale, fleet size is far less important than it used to be in terms of reducing operating cost overheads. Even a single frame fleet can be a viable option now, if it best suits a particular mission requirement.

mjoelnir · Tue May 31, 2016 12:19 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 39):
A lot of people have commented that 3 is not a sufficiently large fleet to be viable. These days, with the option to outsource almost all of the support services that previously required efficiency of scale, fleet size is far less important than it used to be in terms of reducing operating cost overheads. Even a single frame fleet can be a viable option now, if it best suits a particular mission requirement.

A lot of airlines in the "old" days had just a few 747 each, the big fleets came in many cases through consolidation of airlines.

HB-IWC · Tue May 31, 2016 3:44 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 38):
I thought the demand for F class is high between HKG and NRT/HND. Well at least for CX yes. Not sure about ANA,

So high that after the retirement of the B744 CX will offer First Class on one of two daily HND flights and zero of five NRT flights and that the HND flight with First Class only operates on selected days? Where did you get the information that demand for First Class on HKG TYO is high on CX in the first place?

jsnww81 · Tue May 31, 2016 3:54 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 34):
How many planes did JAL have at its peak compare to now? Hope they will do a comeback

Quoting United Airline (Reply 38):
I thought the demand for F class is high between HKG and NRT/HND. Well at least for CX yes. Not sure about ANA

Are you a chat bot? I'm really starting to wonder if you're a chat bot.

As Someone83 said, JAL has already "come back." They came back as a smaller, more nimble carrier with no 747s and a reduced fleet of other aircraft. Since then, they've been able to grow by doing the opposite of what they did in the 80s and 90s - being thoughtful and strategic and not just wanting to see the crane tail all over the globe because it made their egos feel good.

Look at Malaysia and Thai. They also clung to the idea that they had to fly all over the globe and have A380s and appear prestigious. ANA and JAL serve a country that has a massive but declining economy and population. The old way of doing things wasn't working, and I don't know why you keep asking if they'll bring it back.

United Airline · Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:47 am

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 41):
So high that after the retirement of the B744 CX will offer First Class on one of two daily HND flights and zero of five NRT flights and that the HND flight with First Class only operates on selected days? Where did you get the information that demand for First Class on HKG TYO is high on CX in the first place?

OK my mistake. Though I fly to Japan a lot I never realize that they do not have F class onboard HKG-NRT. Sorry.

What about F class between Japan and USA?

Quoting jsnww81 (Reply 42):
As Someone83 said, JAL has already "come back." They came back as a smaller, more nimble carrier with no 747s and a reduced fleet of other aircraft. Since then, they've been able to grow by doing the opposite of what they did in the 80s and 90s - being thoughtful and strategic and not just wanting to see the crane tail all over the globe because it made their egos feel good.

Look at Malaysia and Thai. They also clung to the idea that they had to fly all over the globe and have A380s and appear prestigious. ANA and JAL serve a country that has a massive but declining economy and population. The old way of doing things wasn't working, and I don't know why you keep asking if they'll bring it back.

True since profit is the key word.

ANA has expanded a lot though.

Thai is doing fine now right? Hope Malaysia Airlines will do a full comeback.

Aaron747 · Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:58 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 43):
Thai is doing fine now right?

Anything but. They are in the midst of a huge restructuring efforts after two consecutive years of half billion-dollar losses due to bloat and inefficiency.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 43):
ANA has expanded a lot though.

Yes, quite a bit, but their strategy has been completely opposite of VLA: low density 788/789/77W deployment.

And I repeat, the A380 will not fly in their colors as they're destined for subsidiary Vanilla Air.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 43):
What about F class between Japan and USA?

Dying a slow, but sure, death.

United Airline · Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:54 am

TG is ok but I am not sure about MH.

I suppose F will still be around for many years to come. Sure the demand is going down but there will always be a demand for it especially for top airlines. Guess ANA/JAL will keep first in the long run.

Umm..... I think F is doing fine between Japan and USA though demand has dropped.

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 44):
And I repeat, the A380 will not fly in their colors as they're destined for subsidiary Vanilla Air.

OK. Let's see if they will order a few more to fly in ANA's colour. Maybe if they like it.

Thanks

aviationaware · Thu Jun 02, 2016 8:23 am

Quoting jsnww81 (Reply 42):
As Someone83 said, JAL has already "come back."

Some people who don't think in commercial terms don't consider coming back to black a come back, they think more in image terms and don't take an airline seriously unless it's very pompous and flying the biggest jets, like JAL was with its huge 747 fleet back in the day.

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 44):
And I repeat, the A380 will not fly in their colors as they're destined for subsidiary Vanilla Air.

I keep reading that, but have yet to see proof.

Ab345 · Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:40 am

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 46):
I keep reading that, but have yet to see proof.

Answered earlier on post #21

ANA turned some heads by buying the three Airbus A380 coming out the Skymark bankruptcy. The carrier will use these aircraft for its re-expansion in the leisure market, currently focused on Honolulu flights. The expansion will be carried out by the newly formed Vanilla Air LCC subsidiary.

http://leehamnews.com/2016/05/17/ana-ceo-opens-istat-asia-2016/

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