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grbauc
Posts: 794
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue May 16, 2017 1:57 am

I can say this has a flyer on both products. DL has its act together on many levels there miles are worth about 50% of an AA mile for me though.
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 498
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue May 16, 2017 2:08 am

Love him or hate him, Trump is probably one of a few people that will get real China slots.

US carriers are at a disadvantage. Look at the shit slots ORD and LAX get for AA while Chinese carriers can do what they want.

DFW got great slots as a "new market." Give ORD and LAX similar slots and see what happens. UA has the same problem at SFO on the 2nd PVG flight.
 
jbs2886
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue May 16, 2017 2:10 am

globalcabotage wrote:
Love him or hate him, Trump is probably one of a few people that will get real China slots.

US carriers are at a disadvantage. Look at the shit slots ORD and LAX get for AA while Chinese carriers can do what they want.

DFW got great slots as a "new market." Give ORD and LAX similar slots and see what happens. UA has the same problem at SFO on the 2nd PVG flight.


There is literally no basis for that assertion whatsoever - other than your political beliefs. Please keep those out of this discussion.
 
grbauc
Posts: 794
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue May 16, 2017 2:21 am

jbs2886 wrote:
globalcabotage wrote:
Love him or hate him, Trump is probably one of a few people that will get real China slots.

US carriers are at a disadvantage. Look at the shit slots ORD and LAX get for AA while Chinese carriers can do what they want.

DFW got great slots as a "new market." Give ORD and LAX similar slots and see what happens. UA has the same problem at SFO on the 2nd PVG flight.


There is literally no basis for that assertion whatsoever - other than your political beliefs. Please keep those out of this discussion.


He believes He will be a better Deal maker. I'll say we can do much better for sure.
 
downdata
Posts: 287
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue May 16, 2017 3:20 am

grbauc wrote:
winginit wrote:
grbauc wrote:
MU should help AA then.


Why on earth would they do that?


I don't think they should
I was trying to highlight the special relationship it takes to get Slots.


AA should join SkyTeam then. There. Problem solved.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 1450
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue May 16, 2017 4:22 am

grbauc wrote:
He believes He will be a better Deal maker. I'll say we can do much better for sure.


Not sure it's high on his to-do list. But he might be able to make a better deal for US airlines. I don't think they can get a worse deal than the one they've got now.
 
miaami
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:52 pm

Are there any updates on the proposed LAX-PEK AA route? Doesn't AA have to start service soon in order to avoid losing the slots?
 
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Polot
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:08 pm

miaami wrote:
Are there any updates on the proposed LAX-PEK AA route? Doesn't AA have to start service soon in order to avoid losing the slots?

They have until September 16.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:13 pm

jfk777 wrote:
With all the 787 AA flies to Asia there is a problem if they don't make money.

The 787 is an airplane, not a magic wand.

With TPAC fares from here in the gutter (I did AKL in J for approx $899+miles, roundtrip with wide-open availability) and costs still constant, it'd be shocking if they're making a cent on many/most of those routes.



IPFreely wrote:
Not sure it's high on his to-do list. But he might be able to make a better deal for US airlines. I don't think they can get a worse deal than the one they've got now.

With what as a consideration? Increased access to all the destinations they don't have any desire to fly to?
Or wait, I know... letting them get the USA even further by the sack, with trade debt? :?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
c933103
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:39 pm

Actually, about PEK slot, I think a few months ago CAAC once banned new PEK flight application due to the airport's poor on time performance, although it seems like PEK is no longer on the list and currently there's a rule that airports in the list can open new international/regional route by cutting domestic route. When AA tried to apply PEK slot, was it during the time that PEK being subjected to such restriction?
 
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LAXintl
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:42 pm

DL stirring the pot again.

In filing with the DOT, DL says 7 months after award, AA is still letting the precious frequencies sit idle with no sign of a start up date. DL notes AA's start up extension expires on September 16th, and the department should not consider any further AA extension request.

DL says it "ready and willing" to commence the route providing public benefit, and has "completed the preparation necessary" to launch if and when the DOT opts ti re-allocates the frequencies.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
winginit
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:19 pm

LAXintl wrote:
DL stirring the pot again.

In filing with the DOT, DL says 7 months after award, AA is still letting the precious frequencies sit idle with no sign of a start up date. DL notes AA's start up extension expires on September 16th, and the department should not consider any further AA extension request.

DL says it "ready and willing" to commence the route providing public benefit, and has "completed the preparation necessary" to launch if and when the DOT opts ti re-allocates the frequencies.


Not an unreasonable move by DL. Have to imagine that slots were included in the AA/CZ equity stake, so I'd guess the two carriers are hashing that out as quickly as possible. Does seem like AA is cutting it close though, although given this route will bleed cash either way, maybe it doesn't matter how soon they load before launch.
 
jbs2886
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:40 pm

winginit wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
DL stirring the pot again.

In filing with the DOT, DL says 7 months after award, AA is still letting the precious frequencies sit idle with no sign of a start up date. DL notes AA's start up extension expires on September 16th, and the department should not consider any further AA extension request.

DL says it "ready and willing" to commence the route providing public benefit, and has "completed the preparation necessary" to launch if and when the DOT opts ti re-allocates the frequencies.


Not an unreasonable move by DL. Have to imagine that slots were included in the AA/CZ equity stake, so I'd guess the two carriers are hashing that out as quickly as possible. Does seem like AA is cutting it close though, although given this route will bleed cash either way, maybe it doesn't matter how soon they load before launch.


Yes, this is not unreasonable at all. If DL had sat on its rights for 7 months, AA would be up in arms - look at what AA did with HND.
 
commavia
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:21 pm

winginit wrote:
Not an unreasonable move by DL. Have to imagine that slots were included in the AA/CZ equity stake, so I'd guess the two carriers are hashing that out as quickly as possible. Does seem like AA is cutting it close though, although given this route will bleed cash either way, maybe it doesn't matter how soon they load before launch.


Yep. Although the scarcity and challenges of economically viable slots in China is not news to the DOT. I believe the DOT just permitted United to delay the use of one of its weekly slots for GUM-PVG, and of course United went for - what, a year? - before starting the second SFO-PVG for the same reason. My guess is that as long as AA has kept the DOT informed on the slot issue, like what apparently happened with LAX-HND, the DOT isn't going to pressure AA too much as long as AA demonstrates a clear movement towards actually starting the flight. I agree that this is almost certainly one of the main time pressures being put on getting the China Southern deal finalized as soon as possible.
 
jbs2886
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:38 pm

commavia wrote:
winginit wrote:
Not an unreasonable move by DL. Have to imagine that slots were included in the AA/CZ equity stake, so I'd guess the two carriers are hashing that out as quickly as possible. Does seem like AA is cutting it close though, although given this route will bleed cash either way, maybe it doesn't matter how soon they load before launch.


Yep. Although the scarcity and challenges of economically viable slots in China is not news to the DOT. I believe the DOT just permitted United to delay the use of one of its weekly slots for GUM-PVG, and of course United went for - what, a year? - before starting the second SFO-PVG for the same reason. My guess is that as long as AA has kept the DOT informed on the slot issue, like what apparently happened with LAX-HND, the DOT isn't going to pressure AA too much as long as AA demonstrates a clear movement towards actually starting the flight. I agree that this is almost certainly one of the main time pressures being put on getting the China Southern deal finalized as soon as possible.


Yes, but UA didn't win the rights in a contested proceeding. When you've got another airline that was denied the rights, and the other one isn't operating the flights (even understanding the Chinese authorities), it makes it difficult to continue to permit delays.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:47 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Yes, but UA didn't win the rights in a contested proceeding. When you've got another airline that was denied the rights, and the other one isn't operating the flights (even understanding the Chinese authorities), it makes it difficult to continue to permit delays.


The DOT does not select carriers in route proceedings based on how quickly or from whom they might be able to land foreign airport slots. It would be hardly fair criteria or balance the needs of US consumers.

DOT selected AA as it believes(rightfully) the West Coast-PEK landscape called for more competition and AA could offer this. Both DL and UA have West Coast-PEK flights, while AA did not.

Now if DL is so anxious to launch LAX-PEK, it could have done so already. As the DOT proceedings highlighted DL largely wastes a slot on NRT-China tag flight, which could instead be reallocated on direct US mainland-China service.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:53 pm

LAXintl wrote:
DL stirring the pot again.

As well they should.

As demonstrated by recent history, AA wouldn't hesitate to do the same to them.


winginit wrote:
Have to imagine that slots were included in the AA/CZ equity stake

Why?

First and foremost, it's not a J/V and there is no metal neutrality... AA and CZ are still very much competitors against each other despite loose cooperation.

Second, are we assuming slot transfers work the same at PEK as they would at LHR? That may not be a safe bet, considering that LHR's slot ownership/transfer system is more of an exception than a rule, in light of the way that most aviation authorities operate.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jbs2886
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:57 pm

LAXintl wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Yes, but UA didn't win the rights in a contested proceeding. When you've got another airline that was denied the rights, and the other one isn't operating the flights (even understanding the Chinese authorities), it makes it difficult to continue to permit delays.


The DOT does not select carriers in route proceedings based on how quickly or from whom they might be able to land foreign airport slots. It would be hardly fair criteria or balance the needs of US consumers.

DOT selected AA as it believes(rightfully) the West Coast-PEK landscape called for more competition and AA could offer this. Both DL and UA have West Coast-PEK flights, while AA did not.

Now if DL is so anxious to launch LAX-PEK, it could have done so already. As the DOT proceedings highlighted DL largely wastes a slot on NRT-China tag flight, which could instead be reallocated on direct US mainland-China service.


No, the DOT does not select carriers based on route proceedings, but they expect carriers to get those slots. I would hold AA and DL to the same standard.

Speaking of "needs of US consumers" - how is it in the consumer's interest to not have the flight because AA hasn't gotten the slots it wants? IIRC AA can get slots, just not optimal ones.

Also, it was AA that noted DL "largely wastes" a slot - the DOT didn't use that as a reason.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:07 pm

DL would fly that slot not because it makes business sense but to lock out AA. The DOT knows that too.
 
wn676
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:35 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Yes, but UA didn't win the rights in a contested proceeding. When you've got another airline that was denied the rights, and the other one isn't operating the flights (even understanding the Chinese authorities), it makes it difficult to continue to permit delays.


The DOT does not select carriers in route proceedings based on how quickly or from whom they might be able to land foreign airport slots. It would be hardly fair criteria or balance the needs of US consumers.

DOT selected AA as it believes(rightfully) the West Coast-PEK landscape called for more competition and AA could offer this. Both DL and UA have West Coast-PEK flights, while AA did not.

Now if DL is so anxious to launch LAX-PEK, it could have done so already. As the DOT proceedings highlighted DL largely wastes a slot on NRT-China tag flight, which could instead be reallocated on direct US mainland-China service.


No, the DOT does not select carriers based on route proceedings, but they expect carriers to get those slots. I would hold AA and DL to the same standard.

Speaking of "needs of US consumers" - how is it in the consumer's interest to not have the flight because AA hasn't gotten the slots it wants? IIRC AA can get slots, just not optimal ones.

Also, it was AA that noted DL "largely wastes" a slot - the DOT didn't use that as a reason.


Whatever the case, the DOT seems to make it pretty clear that it is allowing American to pursue the slots that it wants (emphasis mine):

"The Department will require that American inaugurate daily Los Angeles-Beijing service no later than September 16, 2017, or 90 days after American obtains commercially viable slots at Beijing, whichever occurs first."


And also seems to indicate that they are aware of the struggle to secure slots at PEK:

"We regard a six-month period as more appropriate for American either to secure the slots it needs, or if it has not yet been able to do so, report on the status of its efforts in the context of seeking a further start-up extension."


I don't see any basis for the award being stripped, as long as American can make a legitimate case - which shouldn't be that hard to do given that earlier this year the CAAC wasn't releasing any slots - that they are unable to launch the route with viable slots.
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
jbs2886
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:45 pm

wn676 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:

The DOT does not select carriers in route proceedings based on how quickly or from whom they might be able to land foreign airport slots. It would be hardly fair criteria or balance the needs of US consumers.

DOT selected AA as it believes(rightfully) the West Coast-PEK landscape called for more competition and AA could offer this. Both DL and UA have West Coast-PEK flights, while AA did not.

Now if DL is so anxious to launch LAX-PEK, it could have done so already. As the DOT proceedings highlighted DL largely wastes a slot on NRT-China tag flight, which could instead be reallocated on direct US mainland-China service.


No, the DOT does not select carriers based on route proceedings, but they expect carriers to get those slots. I would hold AA and DL to the same standard.

Speaking of "needs of US consumers" - how is it in the consumer's interest to not have the flight because AA hasn't gotten the slots it wants? IIRC AA can get slots, just not optimal ones.

Also, it was AA that noted DL "largely wastes" a slot - the DOT didn't use that as a reason.


Whatever the case, the DOT seems to make it pretty clear that it is allowing American to pursue the slots that it wants (emphasis mine):

"The Department will require that American inaugurate daily Los Angeles-Beijing service no later than September 16, 2017, or 90 days after American obtains commercially viable slots at Beijing, whichever occurs first."




Yes, that is correct, but at what point from September 16, 2017 onwards will the DOT be OK with AA not operating the route because it doesn't have optimal slots.

To be clear, I'm not saying strip AA of the rights, but I'm saying DL has a reasonable argument to contest them from September 16, 2017 and after. AA would have to show it made every possible effort to obtain slots and that the slots they have are not only not optimal but not commercially viable - I don't know what AA can show and where the DOT will draw the line.
 
commavia
Topic Author
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:56 pm

LAXintl wrote:
DOT selected AA as it believes (rightfully) the West Coast-PEK landscape called for more competition and AA could offer this. Both DL and UA have West Coast-PEK flights, while AA did not.


Indeed. The DOT was pretty clear on the competition-based motivation of its decision - and I don't, personally, see that argument changing.

LAXintl wrote:
Now if DL is so anxious to launch LAX-PEK, it could have done so already. As the DOT proceedings highlighted DL largely wastes a slot on NRT-China tag flight, which could instead be reallocated on direct US mainland-China service.


And I'm sure that is exactly what AA's response will be. AA has already laid the groundwork, over multiple filings both during the initial LAX-PEK award case and then once Delta stopped MSP-NRT, in arguing that NRT-PVG is almost meaningless for U.S. consumers.

LAX772LR wrote:
As well they should.

As demonstrated by recent history, AA wouldn't hesitate to do the same to them.


Absolutely. Delta is well within its rights to complain - just as AA undoubtedly would. I may well be proven wrong, but I don't think it will work.

LAX772LR wrote:
Why?

First and foremost, it's not a J/V and there is no metal neutrality... AA and CZ are still very much competitors against each other despite loose cooperation.


AA and China Southern will still be competitors - just like Delta and China Eastern are still competitors. That doesn't stop them from collaborating in areas of mutual interest. And in this case, the basis for mutual cooperation between the two carriers is pretty obvious, and compelling. Their respective ' networks between the U.S. and China are actually remarkably complimentary - AA has five (and presumably soon six) daily flights to PEK and PVG, while China Southern has zero. Cooperating with AA - up to and including the facilitation of a well-timed slot pair for LAX-PEK - instantly allows China Southern to compete with Air China and China Eastern for transpacific traffic flows through PEK and PVG.
 
winginit
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:05 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
winginit wrote:
Have to imagine that slots were included in the AA/CZ equity stake

Why?

First and foremost, it's not a J/V and there is no metal neutrality... AA and CZ are still very much competitors against each other despite loose cooperation.


commavia summarized it well. Still competitors, but AA would be foolish to invest in CZ without some guarantee of slot relief given DL have in the past done exactly the same with MU.

LAX772LR wrote:
Second, are we assuming slot transfers work the same at PEK as they would at LHR? That may not be a safe bet, considering that LHR's slot ownership/transfer system is more of an exception than a rule, in light of the way that most aviation authorities operate.


Having worked directly with slot transfers in China (PEK specifically), I can tell you that the process is very similar to what you find with LHR. No assumptions necessary.
 
atl100million
Posts: 445
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:32 pm

The DOT DID NOT say that DL is wasting one of its frequencies on NRT-PVG. That was American's charge.

The DOT awarded the LAX-PEK route to AA based on AA's lack of a west coast-PEK route while UA and DL both have one.

Because the LAX-PEK case is contested, whatever carrier that receives the award is required to obtain commercially viable slots at PEK to start the route. It is doubtful that AA was told there are no slots for it at PEK but they may not have accepted any slot and thus might not be able to swap anything with China Southern. There is no assurance that the agreement between AA and CZ included a slot swap. If AA was only offered a late night arrival and departure, then CZ has to figure out how to make that slot work.

Given that DL has repeatedly said that it is able and willing to start LAX-PEK service, there is the possibility that DL has requested a slot and has been granted one which China Eastern is willing to swap.

The fact that AA has not obtained a commercially viable slot will not prevent the DOT from re-awarding the frequencies to DL if DL is able to obtain slots that work for it.

UA resisted starting its 2nd SFO-PVG flight because it did not obtain good slot times at PVG. When it reached the time limit the DOT had set for starting the route, UA accepted poor slot times late at night rather than lose the frequency. The same thing will be true for AA on LAX-PEK.

Regardless of the outcome of AA or DL on LAX-PEK, it is a given that LAX-Asia is getting more competitive. Neither DL or UA ever said they would cede LAX-Asia to AA just because AA does not have a unique US carrier gateway to Asia as UA has at SFO and DL has at SEA. The DOT never embraced AA's argument that it should be given preferential access among US carriers to develop LAX as its west coast hub to Asia but rather solely that LAX-PEK should be awarded to AA to help maintain a west coast to PEK balance. It is very likely that both DL and UA as well as foreign carriers will continue to add routes to Asia not only on routes AA currently flies from LAX but also on routes that other carriers can support that AA likely cannot.
 
commavia
Topic Author
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:44 pm

atl100million wrote:
The fact that AA has not obtained a commercially viable slot will not prevent the DOT from re-awarding the frequencies to DL if DL is able to obtain slots that work for it.


Will AA's apparent lack of commercially viable slots at PEK "prevent" DOT from awarding the route to Delta? No, of course not. But will it motivate DOT to reward the route to Delta? Personally, I doubt it.

atl100million wrote:
The DOT never embraced AA's argument that it should be given preferential access among US carriers to develop LAX as its west coast hub to Asia but rather solely that LAX-PEK should be awarded to AA to help maintain a west coast to PEK balance.


DOT never embraced such an argument because AA never made such an argument. AA has never said anything as ridiculous as that it should be "given preferential access among US carriers to develop LAX as its west coast hub." That would (rightly) be laughed at. All AA said - accurately - was that allowing it to have the last available China Zone 1 slots to facilitate a daily LAX-PEK flight would introduce a new, third, competitor into the west coast-PEK market. That is the argument the DOT endorsed.
 
atl100million
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:05 pm

AA most certainly did say in DOT filings in the LAX-PEK route case that DL has a west coast to Asia hub at LAX and that AA should be given the route on that basis.

DL also said that it was trying to build its own LAX hub.

The DOT did not address either issue regarding hubs because this is a route case, not a hub case and not one where the DOT would either give AA preference because it was trying to build a hub but also one where AA would not be protected from other carriers that wanted to add LAX to Asia.

The DOT told DL that it could add any route it wanted from LAX as long as that route was available for DL to add.

The DOT awarded the LAX-PEK route to AA because AA does not have a west coast to PEK route. Period.

The DOT also said in this case and in other contested route cases that the award is dependent on obtaining slots and starting the route.

AA has yet to demonstrate that it will start the route - which appears by AA's own statements to be dependent on AA obtaining commercially viable slots.

DL says it can obtain commercially viable slots via its partnership with China Eastern.

There is no assurance that China Southern's partnership with AA will result in a slot transfer - and it is also possible that AA has no slot which it can swap.

Since the next IATA slot conference is in a couple months for the spring season, it is very possible (but unknown) that DL is pushing the issue because it does have a poorly timed slot which China Eastern is willing to swap while AA has no slot or China Southern is not willing to swap what it has.

Either way, the DOT will not wait indefinitely or may not even wait for the next full IATA slot season for AA to come up with a slot when DL says it has one.
 
commavia
Topic Author
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:23 pm

atl100million wrote:
AA most certainly did say in DOT filings in the LAX-PEK route case that DL has a west coast to Asia hub at LAX and that AA should be given the route on that basis.

atl100million wrote:
The DOT awarded the LAX-PEK route to AA because AA does not have a west coast to PEK route. Period.


Correct. The DOT awarded the route to AA because it opened up a new U.S. carrier competitor and new U.S. carrier gateway between the west coast and Asia. That has not ever been in dispute.

But that's beside the point I was making, which is that the statement made earlier is demonstrably false - AA has never suggested nor requested "preferential access among US carriers to develop LAX as its west coast hub to Asia."

atl100million wrote:
Either way, the DOT will not wait indefinitely or may not even wait for the next full IATA slot season for AA to come up with a slot when DL says it has one.


We'll see. The DOT has given carriers - including AA and United - pretty wide leniency on starting new routes when the airlines demonstrate that commercially viable slots at foreign airports are not available. Exhibit A: AA at HND. Exhibit B: United's second SFO-PVG.
 
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diverdave
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:42 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
And the winner is...

AA

Order 2016-11-3

DOT essentially found AA would inject a new 3rd carrier competition in the West Coast-PEK market, one that both DL and UA already serve.


As expected. Great news for AA.


Gotta love how slow the wheels spin. Here we are 15 months after AA's filing, and 8 months after the award. The route is still idle, and likely will remain so for months to come.

All this delay for service that AA really doesn't even want to start. AA filed in response to Delta's filing.

DoT needs to turn these decisions around more quickly and get services started. It's hard to foster competition with dormant routes. And yes that applies to the Widget as well. :)
 
winginit
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:47 pm

diverdave wrote:
All this delay for service that AA really doesn't even want to start. AA filed in response to Delta's filing.


That's been the real comedy within this whole ordeal - neither carrier actually wants to fly this bloodbath of a route. We're likely talking $25MM+ in losses annually.
 
grbauc
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:51 pm

diverdave wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
And the winner is...

AA

Order 2016-11-3

DOT essentially found AA would inject a new 3rd carrier competition in the West Coast-PEK market, one that both DL and UA already serve.


As expected. Great news for AA.


Gotta love how slow the wheels spin. Here we are 15 months after AA's filing, and 8 months after the award. The route is still idle, and likely will remain so for months to come.

All this delay for service that AA really doesn't even want to start. AA filed in response to Delta's filing.

DoT needs to turn these decisions around more quickly and get services started. It's hard to foster competition with dormant routes. And yes that applies to the Widget as well. :)


AA doesn't really want? Really prove it?

Fact-slots are hard to get in the market.
Fact -AA is building a international gateway Hub at LAX and does want to fly the route.

Yes AAfiled in response to Delta's filing they had to it's the last one available.
 
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diverdave
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:36 pm

grbauc wrote:
AA doesn't really want? Really prove it?

Fact-slots are hard to get in the market.
Fact -AA is building a international gateway Hub at LAX and does want to fly the route.

Yes AAfiled in response to Delta's filing they had to it's the last one available.


If AA really wanted it, why did they wait until after Delta applied?

They could have applied earlier instead of waiting. Then presumably would have gotten the route earlier, and had more time to get slots at Peking. Instead it sat there until Delta asked for it.

So I don't accept the second part of your second fact. Yes they are building a hub, but plainly were not wanting to start LAX-PEK just yet. Delta forced their hand.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 1104
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:44 pm

diverdave wrote:
grbauc wrote:
AA doesn't really want? Really prove it?

Fact-slots are hard to get in the market.
Fact -AA is building a international gateway Hub at LAX and does want to fly the route.

Yes AAfiled in response to Delta's filing they had to it's the last one available.


If AA really wanted it, why did they wait until after Delta applied?

They could have applied earlier instead of waiting. Then presumably would have gotten the route earlier, and had more time to get slots at Peking. Instead it sat there until Delta asked for it.

So I don't accept the second part of your second fact. Yes they are building a hub, but plainly were not wanting to start LAX-PEK just yet. Delta forced their hand.


It is logical AA wanted PEK, but DL forced their hand to get PEK earlier than planned. If AA didn't want LAX-PEK, it wouldn't have applied. You can't logically jump to the conclusion AA didn't want LAX-PEK because it didn't apply first. In fact, AA had to apply when it did otherwise the last of the slots would have been gone. The only difference is timing.

Also, how can you dispute AA is building an international gateway at LAX. AA has added HKG, MEX, GRU, PVG, NRT, HND, SYD and AUK. That is substantial and PEK is a logical and likely extension.

I understand some frustration from the DL-side of things. While I am an AA flier, I still love DL, too. I think AA's HND slot grab was a bit much (DL was playing by the rules, but people didn't like the rules - and yes, I recognize DL's use wasn't maximizing public value). Further, I'm not convinced AA is actually better for LAX-PEK. But those things are settled, AA got both slots. AA now needs to perform on LAX-PEK and I'm just not sure where the DOT will draw the line and I'm not sure where I think the DOT should draw the line, either.
 
grbauc
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:54 pm

diverdave wrote:
grbauc wrote:
AA doesn't really want? Really prove it?

Fact-slots are hard to get in the market.
Fact -AA is building a international gateway Hub at LAX and does want to fly the route.

Yes AAfiled in response to Delta's filing they had to it's the last one available.


If AA really wanted it, why did they wait until after Delta applied?

They could have applied earlier instead of waiting. Then presumably would have gotten the route earlier, and had more time to get slots at Peking. Instead it sat there until Delta asked for it.

So I don't accept the second part of your second fact. Yes they are building a hub, but plainly were not wanting to start LAX-PEK just yet. Delta forced their hand.



We can only guess.. has to why and when there intentions were. YOU could be right but there actions say other wise and unless were in the industry and in the room with the decision makers there no way of knowing.

Who know's why they didn't move first. doesn't really matter.

Now this is different then saying they don't want the route. "Yes they are building a hub, but plainly were not wanting to start LAX-PEK just yet. Delta forced their hand." YET and Delta forced there hand means they did want it but just not yet. Has to why they didn't want it yet is still a guess at this point and I'm not sure what first mover gets DL anyways.

AA had better by trying to move heaven and earth to get slots because its a slot that can be lost. I believe if they are and its proven to the DOT that there squatting on the route of course it should be reassigned.
 
grbauc
Posts: 794
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:59 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
diverdave wrote:
grbauc wrote:
AA doesn't really want? Really prove it?

Fact-slots are hard to get in the market.
Fact -AA is building a international gateway Hub at LAX and does want to fly the route.

Yes AAfiled in response to Delta's filing they had to it's the last one available.


If AA really wanted it, why did they wait until after Delta applied?

They could have applied earlier instead of waiting. Then presumably would have gotten the route earlier, and had more time to get slots at Peking. Instead it sat there until Delta asked for it.

So I don't accept the second part of your second fact. Yes they are building a hub, but plainly were not wanting to start LAX-PEK just yet. Delta forced their hand.


It is logical AA wanted PEK, but DL forced their hand to get PEK earlier than planned. If AA didn't want LAX-PEK, it wouldn't have applied. You can't logically jump to the conclusion AA didn't want LAX-PEK because it didn't apply first. In fact, AA had to apply when it did otherwise the last of the slots would have been gone. The only difference is timing.

Also, how can you dispute AA is building an international gateway at LAX. AA has added HKG, MEX, GRU, PVG, NRT, HND, SYD and AUK. That is substantial and PEK is a logical and likely extension.

I understand some frustration from the DL-side of things. While I am an AA flier, I still love DL, too. I think AA's HND slot grab was a bit much (DL was playing by the rules, but people didn't like the rules - and yes, I recognize DL's use wasn't maximizing public value). Further, I'm not convinced AA is actually better for LAX-PEK. But those things are settled, AA got both slots. AA now needs to perform on LAX-PEK and I'm just not sure where the DOT will draw the line and I'm not sure where I think the DOT should draw the line, either.



:checkmark: :bigthumbsup:
 
jeffrey1970
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:29 am

Are there any U.S. carriers that would be interested in serving Beijing from the east coast?
God bless through Jesus, Jeff
 
CONTACREW
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:21 am

jeffrey1970 wrote:
Are there any U.S. carriers that would be interested in serving Beijing from the east coast?


UA already does from EWR & IAD.
Flight Attendants prepare doors for departure, cross check verify straps standby for all call
 
User avatar
diverdave
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:04 am

jbs2886 wrote:
Also, how can you dispute AA is building an international gateway at LAX. AA has added HKG, MEX, GRU, PVG, NRT, HND, SYD and AUK. That is substantial and PEK is a logical and likely extension.


If you would please look at my post carefully you will observe that I did not dispute your fact about AA building a gateway at LAX. (I disputed the second part of your second fact, not the first part.) You are correct that plainly AA is building up a lot of international flights out of LAX.

Whether AA is eager to fly this particular route is not so obvious. Maybe they are working very hard behind the scenes to obtain good slots at Peking. Or maybe they are happy that the route authority is dormant, and are happy to leave it so as long as they can.

I am not arguing that DL should have gotten the authority. DL has put themselves into an awkward position trying to run international flights out of two West Coast airports. For most practical purposes, connecting traffic can flow just as easily through SEA as it can at LAX. So I think the DoT made the right call.

But at some point it's time to pay or play. The award was made to improve competition. AA is run by some pretty bright folks, and they had to know slots at PEK would be hard to come by.
Last edited by diverdave on Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11265
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:10 am

diverdave wrote:
Maybe they are working very hard behind the scenes to obtain good slots at Peking. Or maybe they are happy that the route authority is dormant, and are happy to leave it so as long as they can.


As already alluded to a few hours ago by another poster - and a very knowledgeable one at that - my guess is that the real answer is not "one or the other" of the above but "both." AA almost certainly is working hard to obtain a "commercially viable" slot pair at PEK - and if public statement made in filings on HND are any indication, has likely also been keep regulators and government officials abreast of those efforts. But in the meantime, AA is also likely "happy" (or at least not that sad) that the route authority is dormant, meaning both (a) not in the hands of Delta and (b) not losing money being developed.

diverdave wrote:
AA is run by some pretty bright folks, and they had to know slots at PEK would be hard to come by.


Indeed, AA knew it - and stated it clearly. AA made it so clear, in fact, that the DOT even acknowledged it, and accounted for it, in the final order awarding AA the route. And, of course, given instances in the recent past of other carriers - including Delta! - struggling to find suitable, "commercially viable," slot pairs in China, the DOT obviously knew all about this ongoing issue, anyway.
 
atl100million
Posts: 445
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:19 am

It is completely speculative to assume that DL forced AA to apply for the route or that either carrier is willing to lose money on the route.

The actual time line is that DL applied for the route only to have AA file a new application on the final day (IIRC) that AA was allowed to comment on DL's application, forcing a route contest.

Once the flight went to a route case, AA repeatedly argued that it should be given the route because it was building a hub at LAX while DL countered that it should be given the route because it was building a transpacific hub at LAX.

There was nothing said by the DOT said about DL holding a China slot which it could move to LAX-PEK even though AA repeatedly made that argument.

The DOT tossed both arguments out the window and made it clear that the award to AA was based on AA being able to inject new competition in the west coast to PEK market.

The HND case is not an accurate example because Japan has made slots at commercially viable times available as part of the normal IATA slot allocation process. China cannot promise and likely cannot make available a PEK slot time at a commercially viable time as defined by US carriers.

Further, the delay in getting a slot for AA LAX-HND was because DL gave up its SEA-HND slot because it did not want to meet the DOT's requirement of 365 days/year operation; the flight was not stripped from DL but rather DL gave it up after the IATA winter slot conference so that no other carrier could acquire a slot.

In contrast, LAX-PEK is a contested route; UA's LAX-PVG 2nd flight was not a contested use of China frequencies.

DL clearly believes it can get a commercially viable slot at PEK to start the flight immediately.

AA has not said they have a slot.

Given that the next IATA slot conference is for spring 2018, if AA does not hold a slot that it can swap with China Southern now, the route will sit vacant for more than a year after DL originally proposed to start service.

I suspect that DL knows that AA doesn't have a slot which is why they are pushing the issue. The DOT will have to decide if they are willing to leave a contested route vacant based on the promise that a carrier might be able to swap a slot with a foreign carrier once one is finally issued - but no one should be holding their breath for that strategy to succeed.
 
commavia
Topic Author
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:36 am

atl100million wrote:
The DOT will have to decide if they are willing to leave a contested route vacant based on the promise that a carrier might be able to swap a slot with a foreign carrier once one is finally issued - but no one should be holding their breath for that strategy to succeed.


Right. And for all that rambling, I - and others - would suggest that "no one should be holding their breath," either, for the DOT to strip this award from AA just yet. Again, the DOT has publicly acknowledged - including in this route case - the continuing challenges U.S. carriers (again, including Delta!) face with slot availability in China. The DOT actually accounted for it in giving AA latitude on a startup date. As long as AA can demonstrate to the DOT that it is working to secure commercially viable slots, I agree with others that the DOT will likely continue to give AA time to do so until successful. This is reminiscent of LAX-HND, where AA's filings suggest that it was continually keeping federal officials abreast of its efforts to obtain slots - it wouldn't surprise me if AA is doing the same thing here.

I know some Delta fans think this seems like blood in the water to re-litigate the entire route award, but I personally think that is unlikely unless AA walks away from it or is proven to be intentionally slow-rolling this. I think far more likely is that a PEK slot pair is, in fact, a central element of the ongoing negotiations with China Southern and, once that deal is finalized, AA will "magically" secure the needed slot pair to launch LAX-PEK.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 1104
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:05 am

diverdave wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Also, how can you dispute AA is building an international gateway at LAX. AA has added HKG, MEX, GRU, PVG, NRT, HND, SYD and AUK. That is substantial and PEK is a logical and likely extension.


If you would please look at my post carefully you will observe that I did not dispute your fact about AA building a gateway at LAX. (I disputed the second part of your second fact, not the first part.) You are correct that plainly AA is building up a lot of international flights out of LAX.



1) it was not my fact
2) if you would please look at my post carefully you will observe I commented on adding PEK as a logical extension of the international buildup such that AA would want to fly to it from LAX.

Before you tell someone else to read, make sure you have.
 
atl100million
Posts: 445
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:18 am

commavia wrote:
atl100million wrote:
The DOT will have to decide if they are willing to leave a contested route vacant based on the promise that a carrier might be able to swap a slot with a foreign carrier once one is finally issued - but no one should be holding their breath for that strategy to succeed.


Right. And for all that rambling, I - and others - would suggest that "no one should be holding their breath," either, for the DOT to strip this award from AA just yet. Again, the DOT has publicly acknowledged - including in this route case - the continuing challenges U.S. carriers (again, including Delta!) face with slot availability in China. The DOT actually accounted for it in giving AA latitude on a startup date. As long as AA can demonstrate to the DOT that it is working to secure commercially viable slots, I agree with others that the DOT will likely continue to give AA time to do so until successful. This is reminiscent of LAX-HND, where AA's filings suggest that it was continually keeping federal officials abreast of its efforts to obtain slots - it wouldn't surprise me if AA is doing the same thing here.

I know some Delta fans think this seems like blood in the water to re-litigate the entire route award, but I personally think that is unlikely unless AA walks away from it or is proven to be intentionally slow-rolling this. I think far more likely is that a PEK slot pair is, in fact, a central element of the ongoing negotiations with China Southern and, once that deal is finalized, AA will "magically" secure the needed slot pair to launch LAX-PEK.



There hasn't been a single contested route case where two airlines were vying for the same route authority and one says they have slots and another says they cannot get them.

AA's desire might be that the authority remain dormant so it can't be used but that is not a goal of the DOT and not one which the DOT can support for any carrier in any route proceeding.

DL is clearly willing to start the route now - as they were a year ago - and AA will be very hard-pressed to argue that it should be allowed to sit on a route authority because it can't obtain slots.

AA made some very bold statements to the DOT about LAX being their Asian hub which neither DL or UA agreed to and which the DOT did not support for any carrier. Either AA has to come up with slots to be able to start the route or it will face increasing pressure to walk away from the authority.

Remember also that China Southern is a Skyteam airline with which DL does currently cooperate; not only does cooperation with AA require unwinding the relationship with DL which might involve penalties but swapping slots as part of a new equity stake might not be as straight-forward as some want to think.
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11265
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:27 pm

atl100million wrote:
AA's desire might be that the authority remain dormant so it can't be used but that is not a goal of the DOT and not one which the DOT can support for any carrier in any route proceeding.


Indeed that might be AA's desire, but I doubt it. DOT obviously could not support a contested route award remaining dormant into perpetuity, but precedent certainly exists for the DOT giving carriers time to secure necessary slots so as to fulfill the underlying reasoning and logic for what they were awarded the route in the first place. In this case, specifically, the DOT stated that it chose AA to inject a third U.S. carrier competitor between the western U.S. and PEK.

So which does the DOT view as more harmful to the interests of U.S. consumers? Waiting a year for that third U.S. carrier competitor to be able to enter the market, or handing the scarce and precious route authority to one of the two existing U.S. carrier competitors and essentially locking in a duopoly into the foreseeable future? We'll see, but I think precedent - and the DOT's own wording in its final award in this case - indicate that as long as AA can credibly show it's making every effort, the DOT will ultimately lean far more towards the former than the latter.

atl100million wrote:
AA will be very hard-pressed to argue that it should be allowed to sit on a route authority because it can't obtain slots.


We'll see. Multiple other airlines have made just such arguments before. AA, Delta and United have all had challenges at one time or another getting commercially viable slots at Chinese airports.

atl100million wrote:
AA made some very bold statements to the DOT about LAX being their Asian hub which neither DL or UA agreed to and which the DOT did not support for any carrier.


I have no idea why this meaningless red herring keeps getting brought up again and again. AA made no statements regarding LAX that either Delta or United had any reason, nor ability, to "agree" or "disagree" with, nor that required any "support" from DOT. AA's filings in this case were filled with statements of fact - including the fact that AA has in recent years added numerous longhaul markets out of LAX, including multiple flights across the Pacific. The DOT in its findings even ratified the suggestion that if Delta wants to keep growing its LAX transpacific presence as it claims to want to do, it can and should feel free to do so - to any of the countless major markets in Asia that are Open Skies and unrestricted/available to Delta today.

atl100million wrote:
Either AA has to come up with slots to be able to start the route or it will face increasing pressure to walk away from the authority.


Indeed. And I suspect AA's reply to Delta will detail that very fact, and that it is, indeed, diligently working to "come up with slots." AA's last public statement on this was buried in a reply on another carrier's filing and indicated progress was being made to that end.

atl100million wrote:
Remember also that China Southern is a Skyteam airline with which DL does currently cooperate; not only does cooperation with AA require unwinding the relationship with DL which might involve penalties but swapping slots as part of a new equity stake might not be as straight-forward as some want to think.


First off, please provide the slightest shred of evidence that cooperation with AA requires "unwinding" anything with Delta or SkyTeam, and that such alleged "unwinding" will involve "penalties" of any kind. In the face of such alleged "unwinding" and potential "penalties," I don't see China Southern caring all that much since it today gets very little from the Delta relationship and in contrast has just gotten cash - and will soon get transpacific access into PEK/PVG - from AA. Finally, another poster whose opinion and knowledge I trust far more has already weighed in on the relatively "straightforwardness" of slot swapping in China. For now, in the absence of more information, I'll take his word over that of a Delta fan hoping to re-litigate the entire route case on A.net.
 
winginit
Posts: 1101
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:25 pm

atl100million wrote:
Either AA has to come up with slots to be able to start the route or it will face increasing pressure to walk away from the authority.


It's highly unlikely that they would in virtually any scenario walk away from the authority. For clarity, getting a slot pair isn't the issue - it's getting a commercially viable slot pair, which is obviously a bit more subjective.

If the DOT came down today and said AA had to launch by September to avoid having the authority revoked, they could grab a garbage pair of slots, and they'd lose money at a rate of ~$50MM on an annual basis as opposed to the ~$25MM that they'll lose with a more prime pair gathered in a swap, presumably with CZ. This is essentially what happened with their ORDPEK service back in 2012. AA loaded their schedule with ambitious timing, couldn't get the slots, had to cancel and push their inaugural, and later launched with garbage timing that has since been remedied.

The point being, having ORDPEK 2.0 would likely be more appetizing than walking away from the authority and allowing DL to serve the route.
 
jfk777
Posts: 6223
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 6:37 pm

IS there any reason why AA could not reduce the DFW and ORD to PEK frequencies from daily to 5 times weekly ? This would allow LAX ro PEK 4 times weekly flights.
 
jbs2886
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 6:46 pm

jfk777 wrote:
IS there any reason why AA could not reduce the DFW and ORD to PEK frequencies from daily to 5 times weekly ? This would allow LAX ro PEK 4 times weekly flights.


Then they aren't using all of their rights and no question other carriers would go after those.
 
atl100million
Posts: 445
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:11 pm

It really doesn't matter how hard AA is trying to get a commercially viable slot but simply whether they have one or not.

DL says it does have the ability to get one in time to start the route not months in advance but within the 90 days that AA has been given just like every other carrier in a route case and for which AA had to ask for a delay.

Commercially viable to AA and DL differ because DL currently has its code on dozens of China Eastern flights/day from PEK.

AA at best has to convince China Southern to swap a slot with AA that AA apparently does not yet have and unwind the CZ/DL relationship which doesn't necessarily go away just because AA invests in a carrier. All alliances have some degree of contractual exclusivity between carriers in the alliance and there simply is no assurance that CZ can terminate the codeshare relationship with DL if exclusivity does exist. AA is a minority equity holder and has not triggered any change in control provisions.

AA very much said that they should be awarded the rights for LAX-PEK because "DL has a hub at SEA" and because LAX is "our west coast to Asia hub." The DOT made clear that it is not deciding or awarding hub status but only the LAX-PEK route.

No one has yet to produce a single example of where a carrier has successfully argued to the DOT that they should be able to hold onto a route because they can't find commercially viable slots while another carriers says they have them.

The reason why DL is raising the issue and continues to push on it is because AA can't deliver on what it was awarded but DL can.

No one can be certain how the DOT will rule but it is highly unlikely that they will be swayed to continue to allow AA to hold the route into March 2018 when they don't have slots and could only gain a commercially viable slot via a commercial relationship with CZ that is still in development.

Instead of continuing to deny consumers of a route that no US airline currently serves and some suggest AA really would rather keep dormant and out of DL's hand instead of serve, the DOT will eventually have no choice but to grant the route to the airline that can and will serve the route, just as they have required in every other case, regardless of how badly they might think that AA might add a 3rd competitor into the west coast to PEK market.

btw, AA's ORD-PVG route carried the lowest number of passengers per flight of any US carrier mainland to China flights in 2016 bested only by AA's ORD-PEK.

AA carried the lowest amount of passengers per flight on its mainland USA-China flights compared to DL and UA. DL's 229 passengers/flight is 30 passengers more than AA and only 10 less than UA.

If any argument is made about about the efficiency of allocated frequencies, AA will not fare well.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:25 pm

What CZ/DL "relationship" is being referred to here? Off the top of my head the two carriers don't even code share? Even if they did their so called "relationship" goes no further than fairly generic interlining at each end of the route. Neither DL nor CZ have a lot of time for each other because of the DL-MU JBA, so there really isn't much there to "unwind". And in any case CZ don't need to terminate their interline or codeshare agreement with DL just to have the same with AA, it is perfectly legitimate to cooperate with both airlines.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
atl100million
Posts: 445
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 1:28 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:39 pm

CZ and DL codeshare on between 280 and 318 flights/day just this week including to/from PEK.

The characterization of the relationship between the two is, not surprisingly, inaccurate since some people want to believe that AA can come along and plop down a couple hundred million dollars for a couple percent stake in CZ and pick up a prime landing slot. The assumption is that alliance relationships have exclusivity - if not AA could have had a larger partner in China without an equity investment. If there are business relationships, there very well could be penalties should one carrier in an alliance choose to pursue partners out of the alliance.

but it still comes down to the fact that AA has never said they have a slot they could swap with CZ while DL has said that China Eastern and DL are prepared to implement within 90 days slot swaps necessary to implement the route.

AA's ability to serve the market is at best speculative while DL's is concrete based on the statements that each have made.
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11265
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Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:45 pm

atl100million wrote:
It really doesn't matter how hard AA is trying to get a commercially viable slot but simply whether they have one or not.


"Really doesn't matter" to a Delta fan. To the DOT? Only time will tell.

atl100million wrote:
Commercially viable to AA and DL differ because DL currently has its code on dozens of China Eastern flights/day from PEK.


... and AA will soon have its code on dozens of China Southern flights ever day in and out of PEK, and PVG, as well.

atl100million wrote:
AA at best has to convince China Southern to swap a slot with AA that AA apparently does not yet have and unwind the CZ/DL relationship which doesn't necessarily go away just because AA invests in a carrier.


Still waiting for clarification on what "China Southern/Delta relationship," allegedly, has to be "unwound."

atl100million wrote:
All alliances have some degree of contractual exclusivity between carriers in the alliance


Source, please.

atl100million wrote:
there simply is no assurance that CZ can terminate the codeshare relationship with DL if exclusivity does exist. AA is a minority equity holder and has not triggered any change in control provisions.


There must be some level of confidence, if not assurance, that China Southern and AA will be capable of achieving what they want out of their relationship. Otherwise, it's hard to imagine the dozens of lawyers each carrier no doubt had working on the deal signing off.

atl100million wrote:
AA very much said that they should be awarded the rights for LAX-PEK because "DL has a hub at SEA" and because LAX is "our west coast to Asia hub."


Continuing to repeat baseless falsehoods like the above just further undermines whatever indeterminate argument is supposedly being made. AA didn't say it whould be awarded LAX-PEK "because 'DL has a hub at SEA'," but rather because Delta (and United) already operated flights from the western U.S. to PEK and AA's entry into LAX-PEK would introduce a third competitor between the region and China's capital. That logic remains factually undeniable.

atl100million wrote:
it is highly unlikely that they will be swayed to continue to allow AA to hold the route into March 2018 when they don't have slots and could only gain a commercially viable slot via a commercial relationship with CZ that is still in development.


That's one opinion. Many of us have the opposite opinion - which is that it's highly unlikely the DOT will strip AA of the award if AA demonstrates credible effort in, and progress towards, securing a commercially viable slot pair at PEK.

atl100million wrote:
Instead of continuing to deny consumers of a route that no US airline currently serves and some suggest AA really would rather keep dormant and out of DL's hand instead of serve, the DOT will eventually have no choice but to grant the route to the airline that can and will serve the route, just as they have required in every other case, regardless of how badly they might think that AA might add a 3rd competitor into the west coast to PEK market.


Again, how will the DOT weigh the "harm" to U.S. consumers by giving AA additional time to secure commercially viable slots versus the "harm" of locking in a duopoly between the western U.S. and PEK that could, plausibly, persist for years? We'll see. Historical behavior from the DOT seems to strongly suggest - to me and apparently others - that the DOT may well ultimately prefer the former to the latter.

atl100million wrote:
If any argument is made about about the efficiency of allocated frequencies, AA will not fare well.


Cool story, bro. And in the meantime, the DOT bought AA's arguments over Delta's in the case of LAX-PEK.
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Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos