• 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 9
 
travelin man
Posts: 3211
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:46 pm

commavia wrote:
DeSpringbokke wrote:
(3) TPE - well-discussed, the market is obviously huge but the competition is incredibly intense, may be a longer-term play



TPE is well-served from LAX because of its good position as a hub to other SE Asian destinations (BKK, SGN, HAN, DPS, CGK, etc). AA would have no Oneworld connections in TPE to serve these markets (they can already do this via HKG with CX), so I view TPE as extremely unlikely. In fact, I'd go as far to say MNL would be more likely than TPE (and I don't think MNL is likely at all).
 
User avatar
winginit
Posts: 1004
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Nov 08, 2016 7:45 pm

CONTACREW wrote:
I may be mistaken but I believe AA has preferential use of some gates at TBIT so PEK likely will depart/arrive from there.


That's been the sort of A.net consensus over the past year or so, but I think that strongly depends on the time of departure. AA have expressed their desire to operate both SYD and AKL out of TBIT, but haven't had any luck with LAWA, so whether or not PEK can be operated in/out of TBIT will depend entirely on the slots they're able to secure in addition to whether or not LAWA cooperates.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 21424
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:04 pm

Some of you guys seem to be down on TPE. I am not.

One positive thing about TPE is the market is much more fragmented with Taiwan flyers using myriad of flights. Over 40% of LAX-TPE flyers use everything such as connections via HKG, Japan, Korea, and other US gateways like SFO to reach TPE. Neither China Airlines nor EVA Air have a lock on the market nor particular strong home market advantage such as seen in Korea.

LAX-ICN market on the other hand has almost 80% of the market flown on the KE/OZ nonstops, and both carriers obviously have strong home market advantage and are pretty deeply entrenched in LA end also, particularly among the large Korean community.

Basically what I am saying is that to taking a slice of fragmented LAX-TPE market without a dominant player should be easier for AA than trying to break into LAX-ICN where it would face much strong Korean competitors that have stronger pricing and capacity flexibility.

With an average of 1,260 daily passengers in the market, AA should in my opinion be able to get atleast 10% of that with remainder of flight made up of other connections in Western US and other AA cities especially since it will be AA's sole gateway to Taipei.


Ref TBIT gates, AA has access to up to 4 widebody plus 1 narrow body gate during the slow 5-11am period. Once TBIT starts getting busy, LAWA priority is to gate tenant carriers, and AA may use them if it can sneak in/out between other airlines.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
DeSpringbokke
Posts: 185
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:27 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:37 pm

travelin man wrote:
commavia wrote:
DeSpringbokke wrote:
(3) TPE - well-discussed, the market is obviously huge but the competition is incredibly intense, may be a longer-term play



TPE is well-served from LAX because of its good position as a hub to other SE Asian destinations (BKK, SGN, HAN, DPS, CGK, etc). AA would have no Oneworld connections in TPE to serve these markets (they can already do this via HKG with CX), so I view TPE as extremely unlikely. In fact, I'd go as far to say MNL would be more likely than TPE (and I don't think MNL is likely at all).


Using your logic, AA would have no chance on LAX-ICN due to lacking One World connections at ICN despite it being the best positioned hub in Northeast Asia. UA doesn't have a particularly close relationship with BR unlike its JV with ANA yet it flies SFO-TPE and the route has exceeded expectations. AA has a chance to make it work with either the 787-9 or A350-900. LAX-MNL isn't happening but its more likely than LAX-Secondary China. That's how unlikely I see AA entering the secondary China market long term.
 
grbauc
Posts: 720
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:58 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Some of you guys seem to be down on TPE. I am not.

One positive thing about TPE is the market is much more fragmented with Taiwan flyers using myriad of flights. Over 40% of LAX-TPE flyers use everything such as connections via HKG, Japan, Korea, and other US gateways like SFO to reach TPE. Neither China Airlines nor EVA Air have a lock on the market nor particular strong home market advantage such as seen in Korea.

LAX-ICN market on the other hand has almost 80% of the market flown on the KE/OZ nonstops, and both carriers obviously have strong home market advantage and are pretty deeply entrenched in LA end also, particularly among the large Korean community.

Basically what I am saying is that to taking a slice of fragmented LAX-TPE market without a dominant player should be easier for AA than trying to break into LAX-ICN where it would face much strong Korean competitors that have stronger pricing and capacity flexibility.

With an average of 1,260 daily passengers in the market, AA should in my opinion be able to get atleast 10% of that with remainder of flight made up of other connections in Western US and other AA cities especially since it will be AA's sole gateway to Taipei.


Ref TBIT gates, AA has access to up to 4 widebody plus 1 narrow body gate during the slow 5-11am period. Once TBIT starts getting busy, LAWA priority is to gate tenant carriers, and AA may use them if it can sneak in/out between other airlines.


I agree 100% with both the Korean Airlines running A380's I'm of the mind has you TPE is way better of a option. Ive used both korean airlines connections flights to SE Asia and there hard to beat on price in J class.
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3190
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:39 pm

commavia wrote:
(1) MEL and/or BNE - seems quite plausible and likely in the context of the strong and growing JV with QANTAS; it isn't hard to imagine a scenario, in a few years, where AA is running a daily 787 on LAX-MEL alongside QANTAS' daily A380, and/or a daily 787 on LAX-BNE alongside a QANTAS 787 (replacing QANTAS' existing daily 747)


Specifically in relation to the Australian routes I can see a number of scenario's for AA. Specifically:

(1) QF goes 789 on BNE-LAX-JFK. That leaves room for an AA 787 on LAX-BNE though I'd say AA would prefer MEL over BNE for the premium traffic.
(2) QF starts 789 on MEL-DFW while AA adds 788 on MEL-LAX to complement the QF A380. QF drops all 744 services. That puts more capacity into MEL from LAX and also links in DFW which I think is highly likely at some point in the near future anyway.
(3) AA starts MEL-DFW leaving QF daily A380 plus a couple weekly 744. It's probably not AA's preferred scenario but plausible if QF doesn't start it themselves.

One way or another I'd imagine we'll see AA in MEL in the next 2 to 3 years.
 
alfa164
Posts: 1871
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:23 pm

DeSpringbokke wrote:
The Chinese airlines have flooded LAX with secondary China destinations, relying on subsidies from those markets. UA is in a unique position among the US3 in having the best Trans-Pacific hub/presence from SFO, allowing the airline to start several secondary China cities. AA/DL are still in the middle of building West Coast-Asia hubs. Given Delta's position in SEA and potential of not taking any 787-8s, the odds of them of starting another China destination from SEA, other than a chance of starting SEA-CAN, is extremely unlikely. AA is building out LAX as their hub, much quicker than anyone on this forum expected, mostly due to the cutbacks in capacity in Latin America and transferring it to the Pacific and the entry of the Dreamliner into AA's fleet. AA probably did not intend to apply for LAX-PEK back in March, as Delta forced their hand early. LAX already sees LAX-TNA/HGH/CTU/NKG/CSX and LAX-KMG/SZN/CKG/SHE/XIY will happen in the coming years. There's just not a market for more than one flight per day to secondary China from LAX. Most of these destinations aren't even served daily and only made possible by the A330-200 and 787-8. AA to secondary China is a ways off. LAX-ICN/BNE/MEL are strongly likelihoods in the next 1-2 years. LAX-TPE is the only logical add left for AA in the near to medium term, and I might be generous in that sentiment. Many of this forum don't believe it'll happen due to market saturation and poor yield potential. Given AA's 787-9 higher capacity configuration in comparison to CI/BR's 77W configurations, the 787-9's economics will outperform the 77W.

The 787 was a game-changer to Asia, first fro UA and now for AA; I still think DL will rue their decision to postpone/cancel their deliveries for a long time. Their "close-second" position trans-Pacific is rapidly becoming distant second, and may wind up being third-place-finisher before too long.

Having bragged about the 787, though, I am still not convinced its improved economics will convince a prudent AA management to jump into LAX-TPE or even LAX-ICN. The Taiwan market is very price-conscious, and with EVA and China Airlines already established carriers there, it will be hard to break into the market without a lot of blood-letting, low fares - and why jump into a market you know may prove to be money-losing? It is almost the same for ICH; DFW-ICN was a different matter, with its huge dominance at the Texas airport as a base, and being able to snatch the lucrative Samsung contract from KE, AA could immediately see the benefit of adding that flight. Not so at LAX; it would face competition from two established Korean-based competitors, both of whom have partners on the US side and their own extensive networks into Asia. That makes success from LAX much more of a question mark than from DFW.

commavia wrote:
I generally agree with all of the above.
I think the market from LAX - and really the U.S. in general - to secondary/interior China is now pretty much saturated with capacity by state-supported Chinese carriers, and I don't see the market realistically catching up with all that capacity, let alone being able to support higher-cost U.S. carrier capacity in addition, anytime soon. The only exception/caveat to that might be United out of SFO - otherwise, I don't see any plausibly opportunities for either AA or Delta anytime soon. And, indeed, AA's own executives have pretty much said as much - secondary/interior China does not represent a major opportunity for AA, and AA's China focus will remain on PEK, PVG and HKG.
More broadly, as already said and discussed at length, I think the remainder of AA's options for additional transpacific growth out of LAX are fairly obvious. From my perspective, in order of plausibility:
(1) MEL and/or BNE - seems quite plausible and likely in the context of the strong and growing JV with QANTAS; it isn't hard to imagine a scenario, in a few years, where AA is running a daily 787 on LAX-MEL alongside QANTAS' daily A380, and/or a daily 787 on LAX-BNE alongside a QANTAS 787 (replacing QANTAS' existing daily 747)
(2) ICN - very large market with a healthy premium component, seems plausible with a daily 787 complimenting the existing DFW flight and given AA's growing strength with LAX/U.S. point of sale
(3) TPE - well-discussed, the market is obviously huge but the competition is incredibly intense, may be a longer-term play
And with those 2/3, plus maybe TPE as the fourth, I think "that's about it" for AA LAX transpacific.


I think whether or not AA expands with more Australia flights depends on whether or not QF shrinks their operations, and allows AA to do more of the JV flying for them. Flights to Australia seem to have already reached a saturation point for most of the year, and adding seats would only make it necessary to cut fares - defeating the purpose of expansion. And, as I mentioned above, I don't see ICN and TPE as being "givens"; I wonder if some other (non-Asian) markets might be ripe for service before they become prime candidates. Most all of Asia can be served via their partner CX, they don't need to go everywhere on their own metal.

Except for London, AA is still relatively weak in Europe, and is M.I.A. in the Middle-East and Indian markets (to be fair, so are DL and UA in the ME, although both have tried, and UA has found a way to make some presence in India work.). Africa is totally missing from AA's map.

While I don't expect them to expend their energy heading all over would at one time, those a re future considerations that cannot be ignored. For now, making the current Asian flights work must be a priority; for the future, some other parts of the world may seem to be more viable than additional Asian markets.
 
User avatar
uberflieger
Posts: 1519
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 6:22 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:24 am

Has there been any public reaction by AA?
Angel Jacinto Noh Tun para Presidente
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcUdQvNUpl4
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11048
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:52 am

alfa164 wrote:
The 787 was a game-changer to Asia, first fro UA and now for AA; I still think DL will rue their decision to postpone/cancel their deliveries for a long time. Their "close-second" position trans-Pacific is rapidly becoming distant second, and may wind up being third-place-finisher before too long.


Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps the 787 could have helped in a few specific markets that are or were "on the bubble" economically (JFK-NRT and SEA-HKG come to mind), but in general, I struggle to see how the 787 would have dramatically altered the overall trend of Delta's Asia network. NRT was not sustainable long-term and was going to get pulled down one way or another - that was evident even back in the Northwest days, let alone the last few years. One of the premises on which Delta based its decision to go into SEA was that it was within 767 range of northeast Asia - Japan, Korea and Mainland China. And that's generally worked. A 787 might have worked better, but the bottom line is that Delta can operate nonstop SEA-NRT/HKG/ICN/PEK/PVG today without the 787.

alfa164 wrote:
Having bragged about the 787, though, I am still not convinced its improved economics will convince a prudent AA management to jump into LAX-TPE or even LAX-ICN. The Taiwan market is very price-conscious, and with EVA and China Airlines already established carriers there, it will be hard to break into the market without a lot of blood-letting, low fares - and why jump into a market you know may prove to be money-losing? It is almost the same for ICH; DFW-ICN was a different matter, with its huge dominance at the Texas airport as a base, and being able to snatch the lucrative Samsung contract from KE, AA could immediately see the benefit of adding that flight. Not so at LAX; it would face competition from two established Korean-based competitors, both of whom have partners on the US side and their own extensive networks into Asia. That makes success from LAX much more of a question mark than from DFW.


Personally, I still say ICN has the inside track over TPE. Both markets are enormous, but ICN is the larger and more globally/strategically important premium market of the two. And while it isn't necessarily determinant, lest anyone forget, several years back, AA's own executive specifically mentioned three particular Pacific Rim markets under study as potential new routes from LAX. Those three markets? HKG, PEK and ICN. Two down, one to go.

alfa164 wrote:
I think whether or not AA expands with more Australia flights depends on whether or not QF shrinks their operations, and allows AA to do more of the JV flying for them. Flights to Australia seem to have already reached a saturation point for most of the year, and adding seats would only make it necessary to cut fares - defeating the purpose of expansion.


I partially agree. There's no question that capacity in the U.S.-Australia market has grown dramatically in the last decade, and the competitive dynamic has moved from a longstanding, comfortable duopoly to a far more disruptive and competitive competition among three viable rivals (QANTAS/AA, Delta/Virgin and United). So yes - absolutely - the market has to absorb all that capacity or otherwise airlines will clearly see yields depressed even further. But that said, I'm not convinced that, over time, the market won't be able to take more capacity.

And I frankly do think the QANTAS/AA JV is the competitor best positioned to provide it. Not only is QANTAS the dominant airline brand in Australia, but AA is the largest airline at the largest and most important U.S. gateway to Australia - which is obviously LAX. As said, I think it's quite plausible that within a few years AA could be flying a daily 787 LAX-MEL alongside the daily QANTAS A380, and/or a daily 787 LAX-BNE alongside a daily QANTAS 787. I don't find that far-fetched.

alfa164 wrote:
Except for London, AA is still relatively weak in Europe, and is M.I.A.


... which, all in all, doesn't look like all that bad a strategy what with all that is occurring with the competitive environment across the Atlantic these days. It is certainly true that AA's Europe network is more concentrated, and becoming more seasonal, than Delta's or United's. That's partly due to AA's U.S. hub network being, overall, structurally weaker for Europe than either of those two rivals. And it's also partly because, frankly, when you handily dominate the market to the market that is by far the largest, highest-yielding and most important, it isn't all that crazy a business decision to largely just focus on that market. And AA/BA do handily dominate the U.S.-LHR market - no question about it.

alfa164 wrote:
in the Middle-East and Indian markets (to be fair, so are DL and UA in the ME, although both have tried, and UA has found a way to make some presence in India work.). Africa is totally missing from AA's map.


Again, given economic, geopolitical and competitive dynamics these days, it's hard to really argue that AA is missing out substantially by not flying to the Mid East and South Asia. All are interesting markets - either for their size, or their growth, or both - but the Mid East and South Asia are also exceedingly competitive and/or low-yielding. AA is much better off putting their passengers onto partners who are stronger in this region - and I still don't rule out the possibility that within a few years we could be talking about the integration of Qatar into the existing AA/IAG JV.

As for Africa - the market just isn't there. Both Delta and United have tried it in recent years, and both have ended up pulling back much, if not all, of what they added. The only halfway-plausible market I could ever see AA adding in Sub-Saharan Africa is South Africa, likely MIA-JNB. But given what's going on in South Africa these days, that seems - very sadly - like quite a stretch, at least anytime soon.

uberflieger wrote:
Has there been any public reaction by AA?


AA (and Delta) have offered quotes to the press, but I suspect AA is holding off on any more outwardly public statements for now, given that the DOT decision is still - ostensibly - tentative/preliminary, and also given that AA knows how difficult it will inevitably be to get PEK slots.
 
bzcat
Posts: 92
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 11:34 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:43 am

LAXintl wrote:
Some of you guys seem to be down on TPE. I am not.

One positive thing about TPE is the market is much more fragmented with Taiwan flyers using myriad of flights. Over 40% of LAX-TPE flyers use everything such as connections via HKG, Japan, Korea, and other US gateways like SFO to reach TPE. Neither China Airlines nor EVA Air have a lock on the market nor particular strong home market advantage such as seen in Korea.

LAX-ICN market on the other hand has almost 80% of the market flown on the KE/OZ nonstops, and both carriers obviously have strong home market advantage and are pretty deeply entrenched in LA end also, particularly among the large Korean community.

Basically what I am saying is that to taking a slice of fragmented LAX-TPE market without a dominant player should be easier for AA than trying to break into LAX-ICN where it would face much strong Korean competitors that have stronger pricing and capacity flexibility.

With an average of 1,260 daily passengers in the market, AA should in my opinion be able to get atleast 10% of that with remainder of flight made up of other connections in Western US and other AA cities especially since it will be AA's sole gateway to Taipei.


Ref TBIT gates, AA has access to up to 4 widebody plus 1 narrow body gate during the slow 5-11am period. Once TBIT starts getting busy, LAWA priority is to gate tenant carriers, and AA may use them if it can sneak in/out between other airlines.


I tend to agree with this assessment as well. Plenty of US-based fliers reach TPE via SFO or HKG and vice versa.

One thing that people in the US may not get is that TPE has a lot of OneWorld fliers... due to CX being the #3 carrier ex-TPE and with a long history of operating 5th freedom flights from Taiwan. And a lot of them fly via HKG or NRT to reach LAX. Some of that OneWorld flyer base maybe low hanging fruit for AA to try to activate.

But ultimately, if AA wants to launch TPE, it will be because the math works for AA from US-originating sales. With 788 or 789, LAX-TPE should be feasible for AA.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 21424
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:36 am

No surprise Delta filed its objections.

Delta basically argues DOT misjudges consumer benefits offered by AA and that the DL proposal would provide broader competitive particularly when local needs at LAX gateway are considered,

DL states LAX accounts for more Asia O&D passengers than both SFO and SEA together and AA already offers more ASMs than other US network carriers from LAX to the region so granting award to DL would better balance consumer competition. Additionally DL states AA overstates its Western state connectivity feed benefits when in reality AA own statistics indicate its current LAX-PVG route is 79% local O&D, and LAX-PEK would likely be the same, meaning the benefits of the route should primarily focus on competitive benefits in LA basin, not the broader Western US region.

DL finally says should department finalize the AA selection it should require AA operate route as proposed as AA has a history of overpromising (DL is one to argue this!) which risk undercutting the DOT goals and diminish the public benefits of the award. As result DL formally request DOT designate it backup authority on the route
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3190
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:30 am

LAXintl wrote:
DL finally says should department finalize the AA selection it should require AA operate route as proposed as AA has a history of overpromising (DL is one to argue this!) which risk undercutting the DOT goals and diminish the public benefits of the award. As result DL formally request DOT designate it backup authority on the route


LOL. So that when AA can't get a slot at Beijing and asks for a delay DL will officially be able to jump up and down and demand it be stripped from AA. Nice........
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25016
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:44 am

Sydscott wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
DL finally says should department finalize the AA selection it should require AA operate route as proposed as AA has a history of overpromising (DL is one to argue this!) which risk undercutting the DOT goals and diminish the public benefits of the award. As result DL formally request DOT designate it backup authority on the route


LOL. So that when AA can't get a slot at Beijing and asks for a delay DL will officially be able to jump up and down and demand it be stripped from AA. Nice........


DL tried the same with AA on LAXHND. Didn't work then, won't work now.
a.
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11048
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:57 pm

Sydscott wrote:
LOL. So that when AA can't get a slot at Beijing and asks for a delay DL will officially be able to jump up and down and demand it be stripped from AA. Nice........


Indeed. That is definitely the way I'm reading Delta's objections - they're essentially laying the groundwork now for the inevitable complaint when AA (equally inevitably) cannot get commercially viable PEK slots to startup the service within 90 days. Although, as MAH4546 said, I suspect it won't work now just as it didn't work with HND.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25016
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Sat Nov 26, 2016 7:34 pm

Commavia wrote:
. As for Africa - the market just isn't there. Both Delta and United have tried it in recent years, and both have ended up pulling back much, if not all, of what they added. The only halfway-plausible market I could ever see AA adding in Sub-Saharan Africa is South Africa, likely MIA-JNB. But given what's going on in South Africa these days, that seems - very sadly - like quite a stretch, at least anytime soon.


Traffic to ZA is at record levels thanks to the weak Rand. BA has added a ton of capacity including LGWCPT, LH resumed FRACPT and Air France is now year-round to Cape Town. Iberia resumed service, QR and TK added Durban, etc.
a.
 
User avatar
IrishAyes
Posts: 2281
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:04 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Sat Nov 26, 2016 7:35 pm

And with DL's movements towards a potential JV with Korean, I really don't see them getting their way with this at all...
personal page: rohananand.com
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11048
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Sat Nov 26, 2016 7:51 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Traffic to ZA is at record levels thanks to the weak Rand. BA has added a ton of capacity including LGWCPT, LH resumed FRACPT and Air France is now year-round to Cape Town. Iberia resumed service, QR and TK added Durban, etc.


And I don't see any of that being the slightest bit indicative of AA being able to make MIA-JNB work. It's true that the weak Rand is helping with inbound tourism, but on the flip side, the specific dynamics driving that weakening of the Rand - including political instability and overall economic weakness - would not help with another ultra-longhaul flight to the U.S. Plus, needless to say, the inbound tourism market from the U.S. remains dramatically smaller than from Europe - an in particular the U.K.

Trust me - having been to South Africa multiple times, including once just a few months ago, I'd love nothing more than to see AA do MIA-JNB. I agree that if there is to be another nonstop U.S. carrier flight to South Africa, that would most likely be it. But I think such a route would pose a much higher level of economic risk for AA, for a variety of reasons including the fact that it would require the dedication of 1.5 and effectively 2 full aircraft, as compared to a route like LAX-PEK. And I don't see MIA-JNB having the clear, demonstrable strategic logic for AA the way LAX-PEK does (on both sides of the Pacific). I continue to be highly skeptical that this is a plausible prospect anytime soon. I sincerely hope I'm wrong.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 21424
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Dec 16, 2016 5:19 pm

DOT is out with its final order. Affirms award to AA. DOT places no special startup conditions as DL had requested.

Now 90-day time clock starts on AA. I will be amazed of they manage to secure PEK slots and manage to start it in time. Suspect we will will see start up delay request.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
DeSpringbokke
Posts: 185
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:27 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:05 pm

LAXintl wrote:
DOT is out with its final order. Affirms award to AA. DOT places no special startup conditions as DL had requested.

Now 90-day time clock starts on AA. I will be amazed of they manage to secure PEK slots and manage to start it in time. Suspect we will will see start up delay request.


They'll be fortunate if they can start at the end of March. Might be a while for AA can start LAX-PEK. I suspect sometime next year DL will announce an end to NRT-PVG and replace it with LAX-PEK. Far better use of a slot to compete on LAX-PEK than to fly ATL-PVG.
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11048
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:15 am

It has been 32 days since the DOT's final order awarding AA LAX-PEK, and the mandated startup date is rapidly approaching. In an almost certain attempt to get its positions on record in a public docket in anticipation of an almost inevitable request for a startup delay on LAX-PEK, AA filed an answer today to Hainan's application for CKG-LAX/JFK authority stating, among other things:

American does not oppose Hainan’s application for an amended foreign air carrier permit and for exemption authority to permit it to operate scheduled service between Chongqing, People’s Republic of China (CKG) and New York, New York (JFK), and between Chongqing and Los Angeles, California (LAX). American notes, however, that U.S. carriers face substantial difficulties obtaining commercially viable slots at airports in mainland China that are necessary to inaugurate U.S.-China services, while Chinese airlines, in contrast, hold large portfolios of slots at these Chinese airports that can be (and are) used to mount U.S.-China services and face no comparable limitations at U.S. airports. The Department should take into consideration the competitive disadvantages U.S. carriers face in serving U.S.-China routes when it reviews applications from Chinese carriers to launch new U.S.-China services.

China’s “opaque allocation system” for airport slots is well documented and shows no sign of abating. Despite diligent efforts by the U.S. Government to secure the rights for U.S. carriers to operate these U.S.-China frequencies, the reality is that, due to the inability of U.S. carriers to obtain commercially viable slots in a timely fashion, U.S. carriers are at a competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis Chinese airlines in serving the U.S.-China market. The Department should not ignore the challenges faced by U.S. carriers in the U.S.-China market in its review of applications from Chinese carriers for new service to the U.S.


As said, I think the request to the DOT for a startup delay on LAX-PEK is a virtual certainty - and if recent DOT history is any indication, as long as AA can demonstrate that it has made the best possible effort to get commercially viable slots but has thus far been unsuccessful, the DOT will likely agree.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 467
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:29 am

Smart move by AA. Probably doesn't change anything, but the point is valid.
 
jumbojet
Posts: 1643
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:58 am

and if the route was awarded to DL and DL made the above request to DOT, AA would be the first ones requesting route revocation. I wonder what, if anything, DL will have to say about it.
 
User avatar
uberflieger
Posts: 1519
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 6:22 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:57 pm

China’s “opaque allocation system” for airport slots is well documented and shows no sign of abating. Despite diligent efforts by the U.S. Government to secure the rights for U.S. carriers to operate these U.S.-China frequencies, the reality is that, due to the inability of U.S. carriers to obtain commercially viable slots in a timely fashion, U.S. carriers are at a competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis Chinese airlines in serving the U.S.-China market. The Department should not ignore the challenges faced by U.S. carriers in the U.S.-China market in its review of applications from Chinese carriers for new service to the U.S.

1) Chinese airlines & airports are government owned.
2) Many US routes are flown with subsidies only offered to Chinese carriers.
3) US airlines are kept waiting years for commercially viable slots.

Time for a Trump Tweet :biggrin:
Angel Jacinto Noh Tun para Presidente
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcUdQvNUpl4
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 21424
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:02 pm

Well I think we will see a formal request for start-up delay very soon.

AA in a DOT filing says its PEK slot request was denied by the CAAC on January 18th.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
DeSpringbokke
Posts: 185
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:27 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:12 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Well I think we will see a formal request for start-up delay very soon.

AA in a DOT filing says its PEK slot request was denied by the CAAC on January 18th.


I guess the earliest we'll see LAX-PEK is end of October. I doubt they'll be any serious objection to an extension unless Delta wants to whine.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 21424
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:48 pm

They should have better luck with the formal IATA slot conference in June which will assign the W17 slots.
AA missed the S17 allocation which took place in November.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11048
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:55 pm

No real surprise. I think everyone knew it would be a stretch to get a viable schedule - or at least one that AA defined as "viable." I think the bigger question now is how other airlines - particularly Delta - will respond to the inevitable AA request for a startup delay.
 
User avatar
winginit
Posts: 1004
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:36 am

LAXintl wrote:
Well I think we will see a formal request for start-up delay very soon.

AA in a DOT filing says its PEK slot request was denied by the CAAC on January 18th.


Do you have a link?
 
DeSpringbokke
Posts: 185
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:27 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:43 am

commavia wrote:
No real surprise. I think everyone knew it would be a stretch to get a viable schedule - or at least one that AA defined as "viable." I think the bigger question now is how other airlines - particularly Delta - will respond to the inevitable AA request for a startup delay.


They'll whine but really Delta should be the last one who should be complaining about start up delays and slots. Delta could start LAX-PEK at the end of October if they wanted to as long as they ended NRT-PVG in exchange for LAX-PEK. Helps they have good relations with China Eastern/China Southern in order to achieve slots at PEK they desire. AA previously had issues receiving slots for ORD-PEK. I'd be curious if AA would like to have a more traditional schedule on ORD-PEK with the flight leaving late morning instead of late afternoon and having the plane fly back to ORD in the afternoon instead of having the 787-8 sit overnight and fly back to ORD the follow morning.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 8620
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:38 am

DeSpringbokke wrote:
Helps they have good relations with China Eastern/China Southern in order to achieve slots at PEK they desire.

:shakehead: :shakehead: MU and CZ have very little incentive to give up a prime slot to DL at PEK.

They're not immunized partners with either, and have no j/v nor metal-neutral operation.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DeSpringbokke
Posts: 185
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:27 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:46 am

LAX772LR wrote:
DeSpringbokke wrote:
Helps they have good relations with China Eastern/China Southern in order to achieve slots at PEK they desire.

:shakehead: :shakehead: MU and CZ have very little incentive to give up a prime slot to DL at PEK.

They're not immunized partners with either, and have no j/v nor metal-neutral operation.


I believe Delta's relations with the two helped Delta achieve daytime slots for DTW-PEK, which they had desired for a while. Of course, I might be confusing this with something else.
 
User avatar
IrishAyes
Posts: 2281
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:04 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:53 am

How was AA able to get commercially-viable slots for DFW-PEK but not for ORD-PEK (on the return) nor LAX-PEK?
personal page: rohananand.com
 
aaway
Posts: 1279
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 2:07 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:54 am

winginit wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Well I think we will see a formal request for start-up delay very soon.

AA in a DOT filing says its PEK slot request was denied by the CAAC on January 18th.


Do you have a link?


The statement by AA was included in their recent response to CA's application for PEK - IAH.
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25016
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:38 am

IrishAyes wrote:
How was AA able to get commercially-viable slots for DFW-PEK but not for ORD-PEK (on the return) nor LAX-PEK?


Because DFW was an until then unserved route, so priority is given for favorable slot timings.
a.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 8620
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:50 am

DeSpringbokke wrote:
I believe Delta's relations with the two helped Delta achieve daytime slots for DTW-PEK, which they had desired for a while. Of course, I might be confusing this with something else.

From the sound of it, I'm guessing you're confusing it with KL/AF/VS giving DL LHR slots, which they all have done, and all have every reason to do.

The exact opposite is the case with the Chinese, as DL is very much a financial competitor to them both, despite being a "strategic partner" with MU.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
grbauc
Posts: 720
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:10 am

commavia wrote:
No real surprise. I think everyone knew it would be a stretch to get a viable schedule - or at least one that AA defined as "viable." I think the bigger question now is how other airlines - particularly Delta - will respond to the inevitable AA request for a startup delay.

If DL does file a complaint, wouldn't that only hurt themselves and the process.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 6619
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:22 pm

DL will file because they want the slot. They won't be successful but doesn't hurt to try. UA won't care and either won't file anything or will file a statement in support of AA's inevitable request.
 
FSDan
Posts: 1268
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:42 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
IrishAyes wrote:
How was AA able to get commercially-viable slots for DFW-PEK but not for ORD-PEK (on the return) nor LAX-PEK?


Because DFW was an until then unserved route, so priority is given for favorable slot timings.


Also, there are no Chinese airlines competing in the DFW-PEK market, whereas the Chinese government might have incentives to protect CA on LAX-PEK. I'm not sure if they are protective of HU.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11048
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:44 pm

AA's comments towards the CAAC in its objection to Air China's PEK-IAH renewal are direct and scathing. AA is pulling no punches. It is quite obvious at this point that this will only be resolved if escalated to a government-to-government level - perhaps akin to some of the brinkmanship of the past between the U.S. and U.K. over LHR - but it will be interesting to see if, and/or when, that ever happens. Unfortunate.
 
justplanenutz
Posts: 576
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2006 9:48 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:59 pm

It will be interesting to see how the Trump Administration handles this. Could be a low stakes opportunity to send "Jina" a message that there is a new sheriff in town. As Commavia noted, AA was very critical in its public comments. I immediately thought that they are hoping to benefit from at least the perception that Trump will be more confrontational.
 
jfk777
Posts: 6183
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:52 pm

commavia wrote:
AA's comments towards the CAAC in its objection to Air China's PEK-IAH renewal are direct and scathing. AA is pulling no punches. It is quite obvious at this point that this will only be resolved if escalated to a government-to-government level - perhaps akin to some of the brinkmanship of the past between the U.S. and U.K. over LHR - but it will be interesting to see if, and/or when, that ever happens. Unfortunate.


The Chinese have been experts at playing the game of slots with US airlines. The China 3 can basically fly to LAX or JFK any time they want but the US3 are essentially "blindfolded" when it comes to slot times in Peking or Shanghai. The Chinese airlines have tons of Boeing 787 & 777 on order so basically the politics mean that the US 3 get the short end of the Boeing stick. More Chinese airlines fly to the USA from many cities we have only recently heard of and still a hard time for AA to get slots at PEK for their new LAX flight. Fair ? Not from our point of view then Uncle Sam sells out one party's interest for the benefit of another's.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 21424
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:10 pm

And here is it...

AA formally requested motion for a start-up delay..
They are asking for a 1-year extension, or within 90-days of receipt of commercially viable slot at PEK.

OST-2016-0076
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 21424
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Feb 24, 2017 3:58 am

Well Delta has objected to AA's start-up delay request.

Delta says the proposed AA delay serves no public benefit, and says the authority should be transferred immediately to DL who is ready to commence without any delays.
DL says its ready, able and willing to inaugurate service and has the ability to obtain the required slots that AA claims it cannot. Delta says its China partner MU has pledged assist with DL initiating the service including offering slots times that will make LAX-PEK attractive to consumers.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25016
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:11 am

LAXintl wrote:
Well Delta has objected to AA's start-up delay request.

Delta says the proposed AA delay serves no public benefit, and says the authority should be transferred immediately to DL who is ready to commence without any delays.
DL says its ready, able and willing to inaugurate service and has the ability to obtain the required slots that AA claims it cannot. Delta says its China partner MU has pledged assist with DL initiating the service including offering slots times that will make LAX-PEK attractive to consumers.


It brings up interesting antitrust issues because while that's not prima facie collusion, it's still, interesting.
a.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 855
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:15 am

MAH4546 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Well Delta has objected to AA's start-up delay request.

Delta says the proposed AA delay serves no public benefit, and says the authority should be transferred immediately to DL who is ready to commence without any delays.
DL says its ready, able and willing to inaugurate service and has the ability to obtain the required slots that AA claims it cannot. Delta says its China partner MU has pledged assist with DL initiating the service including offering slots times that will make LAX-PEK attractive to consumers.


It brings up interesting antitrust issues because while that's not prima facie collusion, it's still, interesting.


Collusion is a pretty strong term. There is nothing illegal for Delta's partner, and investment, to help them get slots.

If you have any issue it's with the Chinese authorities, but to suggest collusion, prima facie, or otherwise is a bit much.
 
ATL787
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2016 5:14 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:21 am

So is there any chance this works out for DL? If not, their case sounds reasonable to me, but I don't really know what I'm talking about...
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 3338
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:28 am

Its quite common for partners to help or lend slots between each other. Just look at DL at LHR and deals it has done with Skyteam partners and VS.

What I find more interesting is that one day DL complains about foreign airlines with government support, but next day willing to make a deal with another government supported airlines.
Its convenient with China but not Middle East it seems for DL.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 855
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:58 am

ATL787 wrote:
So is there any chance this works out for DL? If not, their case sounds reasonable to me, but I don't really know what I'm talking about...


I doubt it, but Delta has the right to complain, particularly given the strict requirements the DOR has placed on Delta slots based on objections of AA. We can argue about whether Delta was abusing slots, but the DOT really created new standards that are kind of unreasonable. If the DOT wants to be consistent, and avoid legal claims by Delta, we could see the DOT impose strict requirements on AA, too.
 
grbauc
Posts: 720
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Feb 24, 2017 5:49 am

LAXintl wrote:
Well Delta has objected to AA's start-up delay request.

Delta says the proposed AA delay serves no public benefit, and says the authority should be transferred immediately to DL who is ready to commence without any delays.
DL says its ready, able and willing to inaugurate service and has the ability to obtain the required slots that AA claims it cannot. Delta says its China partner MU has pledged assist with DL initiating the service including offering slots times that will make LAX-PEK attractive to consumers.


I can't stand these back n forths.. From DL or anyone else. MU should help AA then. Delta is acknowledging that its a issue to get slots and that they alone can get them with special help DL just needs to wait its time if AA doesn't get them after a reasonable time then they should move forward. There not serving public interest with there whining
 
grbauc
Posts: 720
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: AA Applies For LAX-PEK

Fri Feb 24, 2017 5:56 am

jbs2886 wrote:
ATL787 wrote:
So is there any chance this works out for DL? If not, their case sounds reasonable to me, but I don't really know what I'm talking about...


I doubt it, but Delta has the right to complain, particularly given the strict requirements the DOR has placed on Delta slots based on objections of AA. We can argue about whether Delta was abusing slots, but the DOT really created new standards that are kind of unreasonable. If the DOT wants to be consistent, and avoid legal claims by Delta, we could see the DOT impose strict requirements on AA, too.


Delta was abusing the spirit of the law and now the DOT had to write it out in the letter of the law for them because of there abuse. If AA or another airline abuses the intent of a awarded slot and the DOT doesn't keep the same sort of order then DL and you can rightfully complain. DL whom I like is whiny and does seem to want it both ways in many cases. I don't think they are alone in this.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 9

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos