Quoting B757capt (Reply 215): It's sad JFK isn't seeing more love from AA.

And no PHL either, which also has a large ethnic Cuban population.

What I would like to see for HAV:

Alaska - 1x LAX
American - 6x MIA
JetBlue - 3x FLL, 2x JFK
Delta - 1x JFK, 1x ATL, 1x MIA
Spirit - 1x FLL
United - 1x EWR
Southwest - 1x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x TPA

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 237): . DL is attempting to capture the not-insignificant NYC-area traffic which also likely includes the highest-yielding business traffic -

I assure you the "highest yield business traffic" to Cuba will come from Miami.

Also I think people are underestimating Frontier - I have no doubt it will get MIAHAV, along with DL and AA.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 252): I assure you the "highest yield business traffic" to Cuba will come from Miami.

The business traffic to Cuba will be limited. It's not a great environment to operate in and most of the worthwhile economic potential is already in the hands of companies from Europe, Canada, China etc.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 253): Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 252): I assure you the "highest yield business traffic" to Cuba will come from Miami. The business traffic to Cuba will be limited. It's not a great environment to operate in and most of the worthwhile economic potential is already in the hands of companies from Europe, Canada, China etc.

It won't be that limited - there will be a huge explosion of investment from U.S. corporations in Cuba as the market opens up.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 247): LAX is a long shot to me. Who knows though.

LA supposedly has the fourth largest Cuban population in the US. I'm pretty certain AS will be granted 1x daily.

Quoting commavia (Reply 251):

Mine is pretty similar with some slight changes:

Alaska - 1x LAX
American - 5x MIA, 1x CLT
JetBlue - 2x FLL, 1x JFK, 1x TPA
Delta - 1x JFK, 1x ATL, 1x MIA
Spirit - 1x FLL
United - 1x EWR
Southwest - 2x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x TPA

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 249): one could argue that those 2 TPA-HAV and 2 MCO-HAV non-stop flights would be better utilized, promote greater competition, offer more one stop connections and serve the public better as HAV-FLL flights.

You sure about that? WN serves 49 cities non-stop from MCO with over 170 daily departures, and 39 non-stop from TPA with over 110 daily departures. WN @ MCO would be the second-largest hub in Florida if WN had hubs... TPA in particular is a key charter market to Cuba today, so I find it extremely unlikely that it would end up with no frequencies to HAV.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 252): I assure you the "highest yield business traffic" to Cuba will come from Miami.

   MIA, despite being in the U.S., is one of the (if not the single) most important business centers in Latin America.

Quoting commavia (Reply 251): What I would like to see for HAV: Alaska - 1x LAX American - 6x MIA JetBlue - 3x FLL, 2x JFK Delta - 1x JFK, 1x ATL, 1x MIA Spirit - 1x FLL United - 1x EWR Southwest - 1x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x TPA

I don't think that's too far off, except I expect the MIA/FLL frequencies to be divided up more evenly, and I think F9/EA/FX also end up with frequencies. I don't think any carrier gets more than 2 or 3 MIA/FLL-HAV frequencies. I also expect a bit more geographic diversity with potentially CLT & DFW getting a frequency.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 257): I don't think that's too far off, except I expect the MIA/FLL frequencies to be divided up more evenly, and I think F9/EA/FX also end up with frequencies. I don't think any carrier gets more than 2 or 3 MIA/FLL-HAV frequencies. I also expect a bit more geographic diversity with potentially CLT & DFW getting a frequency.

That may be what happens. What I listed above was not what I thought we would see, but what I personally want to see. Personally, I find it ridiculous and stupid to "more evenly" divide up the MIA/FLL frequencies, or to artificially impose "geographic diversity." As many have said for months, my opinion remains that as the vast majority of the demand is almost certainly going to come from Florida and NYC, then that's where the vast majority of the frequencies should go.

[Edited 2016-03-03 12:21:04]

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 249): promote greater competition, offer more one stop connections and serve the public better as HAV-FLL flights.

The public is best served by distributing the frequencies as the market warrants. Until visa restrictions are lifted. 80%+ of the demand will come just from Miami. That's how the public is best served. It won't end up being that way, which is going to screw with the market dynamics, and force a lot of travelers to backtrack or create a very high-fare situation from South Florida.

Quoting commavia (Reply 236):

OK if you have access to the Delta presentation I will concede that USAtoday is wrong.
However 60% of the flights will need to be stripped out, and obviously many will get way less than what they applied.

I can see AS being ignored as they lack service to the Caribbean 2x daily from LAX is way over kill, maybe showing that they don't know the market. It will be AA and DL or AA and F9 on the MIA HAV. Not both.

Quoting commavia (Reply 243):

North Dade can use either FLL or MIA. South Dade must use MIA, as traffic is horrendous depends on where people live and if fare differentials make people endure more hardships to select one over he other.

BTW Cubans don't live in Calle Ocho any more. Its mainly poor Central Americans now. Try Hialeah. I understand that its packed with new arrvals.

Note that many older Cubans (those who arrived in the 60s and 70s) are going to refuse to visit Cuba for ideological reasons and their off spring don't care much for Cuba as they don't know their folks down there.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 237):

NYC will generate the highest numbers of business traffic behind SoFL. IT and other tech guys will be down there, as well as real estate and the bankers. Cuba has a majr lack of infrastructure and these guys will want a jump on it. DL definitely wants that JFK route.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 245):

SoFL, NY, and the major hubs will get allocations. ATL and CLT will gather from the Midwest and East coast and DFW from the West, including California. Better to gather into a hub than to run many thin routes and what remains speculative, outside of the FL market.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 248):

AC, KX, and UP will get far less business than before, now that it is easier for Americans to travel to Cuba "legally". Fares should come down as well, especially out of SoFL.

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 255):

LAX I bet is full of the Rubio/Cruz types who think that any travel to Cuba is helping a bloodthirsty tyrant. Not many new migrants there. The newr ones prefer to live in the dense Cuban clusters, so will be mainly in FL and NY/NJ. THAT is the VFR market. Not every "Cuban," many being 3rd generation and more likely to travel to Mexico.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 259):

Many more affluent Cubans have moved o Broward and beyond, plus SoFL will generate more leisure travel as likely Americans there already live in the shadow of Cuba, given the vast and very powerful Cuban population, are better able to find accommodations (the socalled AirBnB) andto figure out how to fit into the "12 categories.

So FLL will generate much from Broward, Palm, and even north Dade, if the fares are competitive. How far is Hialeah from FLL. If B6 and WN chargefares much lower than AA and DL then why wouldn't they chose the cheaper option. If folks travel to Cuba multiple times fares do become a factor. In 2010 75% of the folks in Hialeah were Cuban, huge numbers of which are recent arrivals.

I see daily from ATL, DFW, CLT and 3 from the NY area. The rest from FL. Some Sa service from elsewhere, as DOT has stated that this wouldn't be counted against the 20 flights allocation.

Wild card is Silver and their allocations, though I think that they are best for service to points beyond HAV, given the small planes that they use.

Let the horse trading begin as airlines fight to get their allocations.

DOT should take a long term view here. If they're anticipating visa restrictions to begin easing in the next 12-24 months, it doesn't do them any good by allocating 100% of HAV authorities based on existing traffic patterns, with no room for expansion (short of shifting that 20 slot figure, which takes a long time to negotiate).

A good balance would be something like 55% to SoFL, 10% rest of Florida (TPA, MCO), 20% NYC, and 15% rest of the nation (ATL, etc). That way, existing O&D hot spots continue to get the most allocation, but still some growth built in for other places.

If the whole point of the allocation is just to serve the VFR, then there's nothing gained other than what existing charters can't do already.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 261): If the whole point of the allocation is just to serve the VFR, then there's nothing gained other than what existing charters can't do already.

Potentially lower prices, less of a hassle, etc. VFR will still be a large part of it. Many Americans will be uninterested in visiting Cuba, for various unrelated reasons.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 260): I can see AS being ignored as they lack service to the Caribbean 2x daily from LAX is way over kill, maybe showing that they don't know the market. It will be AA and DL or AA and F9 on the MIA HAV. Not both.

The last time I checked, CUN is in the Caribbean.

I think AS stands a chance based on their history of successfully serving Mexico from LAX, their growing network in Central America, and the fact that they made the only application from the Western US... a massive region that will certainly drive some traffic to Havana.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 252):

If F9 does MIA HAV then DL doesn't. F9 will low price.

AA has the branding in the MIA, and also has very strong feed from elsewhere. In addition MIA business people are most likely in AAs FF plan, with other perks, so they will dominate the high yield. The fact that they will have several daily flights will give them the flexibility to chose flights which best fit their schedule.

You aren't going to have AA, F9, DL, WN, and B6 competing from airports 30 miles apart. Then in addition EA will be a factor.

Quoting rwsea (Reply 263):

LAX will not be a major route into HAV, and certainly NOT at the levels anticipated by AS. I really suspect that AS is completely misreading the Cuban market. LAX will not merit a daily flight, much less 2X daily.

I don't think that CUN is part of the Caribbean, as it is in Mexico, which is an entity on its own. It is not a Caribbean country, nor is it part of Central America. CUN is another Mexican resort.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 262):

Those who think that this entire exercise is merely about facilitating immigrants returning home are naïve.

The USA wants to ensure that it gains access to the business opportunities which Cuba represents. These benefits currently accrue to European, Canadian, Latin American, Asian and even Jamaican companies (two Jamaican chains have properties in Cuba).

Cuba wants non VFR tourists. The fact that the VFR will benefit from this is merely to ensure that the routes are viable, until more business and non VFR travel is generated out of the USA.

Every one involved in merely positioning themselves so they won't be locked out when the market really opens.

Quoting flymia (Reply 217): AA's application has an interesting point, if MIA does not get at least 7-8 frequencies (of course AA wants them all) they will be worse off now, then they were with charters as MIA average 7.3 daily flights between MIA-HAV.

That's misleading on AA's part since the scheduled service will not affect airlines' abilities to run charters. AA can continue to run their present-day charter operation to Cuba independent of whatever they are awarded.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 257): WN @ MCO would be the second-largest hub in Florida if WN had hubs..

it would be the largest for WN (florida-wise). im pretty sure WN is largest carrier at mco

Quoting rwsea (Reply 263): I think AS stands a chance based on their history of successfully serving Mexico from LAX, their growing network in Central America, and the fact that they made the only application from the Western US... a massive region that will certainly drive some traffic to Havana.

AA also applied for LAX, but not 2x daily (1x weekly, which is more reasonable). F9 applied from DEN.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 264): I really suspect that AS is completely misreading the Cuban market.

Or they are doing what someone upthread suggested; applying for more than they know they will get.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 148): Daily or weekly? Twice daily service is ridiculous.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 226): LA HABANA (HAV) AA MIA 5 DL MIA 2 B6 FLL 3 WN FLL 3 UA EWR 1 B6 JFK 1 DL JFK 1 AS LAX 1 DL ATL 1 AA CLT 1 AA DFW 1

Where's TPA?

Quoting commavia (Reply 251): United - 1x EWR

Wow, UA with the same frequency as NK. I suppose their network really doesn't lend well to Cuba like some other carriers and their applications.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 260): I can see AS being ignored as they lack service to the Caribbean 2x daily from LAX is way over kill, maybe showing that they don't know the market

Or that they are asking for more so that they get some.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 264): Every one involved in merely positioning themselves so they won't be locked out when the market really opens.

Such as AS.

-Dave

Question: if these are scheduled services, how are the airlines going to enforce the no-tourism permitted restriction during the visa process?

Question 2: at airport check-in (let's assume on-line check-in is restricted for Cuban flights), what other than tourism documentation needs to be produced?

Question 3: it is illegal for US citizens to visit Cuba for tourism, but what happens when a UK national buys a ticket? The tourism restrictions are on the individual, not the airline.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 270): Question: if these are scheduled services, how are the airlines going to enforce the no-tourism permitted restriction during the visa process? Question 2: at airport check-in (let's assume on-line check-in is restricted for Cuban flights), what other than tourism documentation needs to be produced? Question 3: it is illegal for US citizens to visit Cuba for tourism, but what happens when a UK national buys a ticket? The tourism restrictions are on the individual, not the airline.

The airline does not issue visas nor decide who does and does not enter a country nor enforce a country's laws when someone is traveling.

It's up to the individual traveler to obtain a visa using whatever documentation the respective governments require. It is up to those governments to supply the airlines with information on what visa is required for citizens of one country to enter another.

The only role the airline plays is to make sure the individuals boarding its flights have the passport/visa/sacrificial pigeons required for that passenger to enter the destination country (which will be different for citizens of different countries), and then to provide transportation according to the Contract of Carriage.

It doesn't matter for immigration purposes whether a passenger arrives on a charter or scheduled flight.

Looking though all these requests I find WNs a little interesting. They want 6x FLL and other things. They say they need 2x FLL otherwise what? They won't start service? I assume this is a threat of some sort. So lets say they are one given one. Who thinks WN will walk away from service to HAV?

Thoughts?


WW

I think 3M has made a bold move. I wish them luck. The only thing that really surprises me is the Sat. only IAD-HAV on UA. Thought it would be daily given IAD is a major hub. All the other EC hubs are asking for dailies.

For carriers that applied for Saturday only frequencies, AA, UA etc., couldn't they be split from other carriers applications.

For example UA applied for IAD-HAV Saturday only, couldn't the DOT award another carrier who applied for 7 daily frequencies only six and award that seventh to UA for IAD-HAV on Saturdays.

For example:

B6 applied for 7 weekly MCO-HAV, couldn't the DOT turn around and award B6 6 and give the seventh frequency to UA for IAD-HAV.

Another example:

AS applied for 14 weekly LAX-HAV, and AA applied for 1 weekly on Saturdays. What's to stop the DOT from awarding AS 6 weekly frequencies LAX-HAV and the seventh to AA for Saturday LAX-HAV?

Quoting wwtraveler99 (Reply 272): Who thinks WN will walk away from service to HAV?

They want Cuba so they will take what they can get.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 273): I think 3M has made a bold move. I wish them luck

Bold move but they can provide feed to B6 in FLL for the routes not being served by B6 to Cuba so rather smart and they have the smaller equipment to make those flights work.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 270):

Willing to bet that seats to Cuba onus carriers will have to be booked via a travel agent, or a wholesaler, to allow compliance with US laws.

Anything came out yet?

Quoting santi319 (Reply 277): Anything came out yet?

     

Today's filings are simply airlines refining their original application arguments and throwing rocks at their competitors.

Nothing new really.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 276): Willing to bet that seats to Cuba onus carriers will have to be booked via a travel agent, or a wholesaler, to allow compliance with US laws

Which would be different for WN as they use none of the above.

Quoting INFINITI329 (Reply 279):

WN will have to introduce controls to prevent "illegal" travel by US citizens to Cuba, or face sanctions by the US authorities.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 280): WN will have to introduce controls to prevent "illegal" travel by US citizens to Cuba, or face sanctions by the US authorities.

Every airline will have to do this. The fines will be hefty.

AA's 243-page consolidated answer is pretty scathing, and pulls no punches:

"These proposals are based on the premise that hundreds of thousands of Cuban Americans living in Miami-Dade County should be inconvenienced by having to travel to Broward County for scheduled service to Cuba. Decades of experience with U.S.-Cuba charter flights establishes beyond doubt that these passengers prefer MIA ... There has never been more than one or two weekly charter flights from FLL to anywhere in Cuba, and there is no basis to assume that multiple daily scheduled frequencies to HAV at FLL will create demand where very little has ever existed."

"Applicants without Cuba experience did not augment the standard Minimum Connecting Times (MCTs) at their gateway airports to account for the need to process unique OFAC-required paperwork for Cuba flights to assure passenger and airline compliance with categories of permissible travel to Cuba (American added 15 minutes to its standard MCTs)"

"The nine HAV frequencies requested by Southwest cover three of the U.S. gateways also requested by JetBlue, and these requests suffer from the same flaw: They are divorced from demographic and charter traffic reality. Moreover, Southwest’s minimal international operations from Florida and lack of experience in operating charter flights to Cuba make it particularly unsuited for its requested HAV frequencies."

It seems like every sense the SEA/LAX-HND proceeding ("Seatless in Seattle"), AA has taken a much more direct and aggressive approach to applications/answers/replies.

Quoting an Associate Press article,

Americans can now take "people-to-people" educational trips to Cuba on their own instead of joining expensive group tours. That means any American can legally go to Cuba after filling out a form asserting that their trip is for educational purposes instead of tourism. Although they'll be required to keep records for five years about what they did in Cuba, they won't have to submit them to the government unless asked.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 276): Willing to bet that seats to Cuba onus carriers will have to be booked via a travel agent, or a wholesaler, to allow compliance with US laws.

I guess you did not see that coming , huh?

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 253): and most of the worthwhile economic potential is already in the hands of companies from Europe, Canada, China etc.

...and you think it's going to STAY that way??

Quoting rwsea (Reply 263): The last time I checked, CUN is in the Caribbean.

Might want to check again.  
CUN is technically the Gulf, it's right before the Caribbean Sea begins.
That said, various CAAs may view it either way.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 284): CUN is technically the Gulf, it's right before the Caribbean Sea begins.

No, technically CUN is not in the Gulf of Mexico. The southeastern edge of the Gulf between Mexico & Cuba (in the Yucatan Channel) runs between Cabo Catoche and Cabo San Antonio -- and CUN is south of Cabo Catoche.

Quoting commavia (Reply 282): "These proposals are based on the premise that hundreds of thousands of Cuban Americans living in Miami-Dade County should be inconvenienced by having to travel to Broward County for scheduled service to Cuba.

Plenty of folks will suffer all manner of inconvenience to save money...

Quoting commavia (Reply 282): "The nine HAV frequencies requested by Southwest cover three of the U.S. gateways also requested by JetBlue, and these requests suffer from the same flaw: They are divorced from demographic and charter traffic reality. Moreover, Southwest’s minimal international operations from Florida and lack of experience in operating charter flights to Cuba make it particularly unsuited for its requested HAV frequencies."

One would imagine that AS's request for LAX-HAV ought to be denied for virtually the same set of reasons...

Quoting ScottB (Reply 285): One would imagine that AS's request for LAX-HAV ought to be denied for virtually the same set of reasons...

Why is that? AS has plenty of experience flying internationally. LAX is the biggest O/D airport in the US, isn't it? Plus connection opportunities from PDX and SEA. Or were you being sarcastic or joking?

Quoting commavia (Reply 282): It seems like every sense the SEA/LAX-HND proceeding ("Seatless in Seattle"), AA has taken a much more direct and aggressive approach to applications/answers/replies.

Here is a link to Southwest's agreement aganist other carrier's and answers to questions

http://www.scribd.com/doc/304718967/Answer-of-Southwest-Airlines-Co-Cuba

From the table of contents.. Pretty direct
III. As Between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, FLL Will Be the Airport Preferred by Most Cuban American Travelers from South Florida.
IV. American Airlines’ Service Proposal Fails to Maximize Consumer Benefits and Warrants Only a Fraction of its Excessive MIA Frequency Request.

Mainly attacks AA at MIA but also goes through all the other carrier proposals. Pretty interesting analysis

Quoting crazytoaster (Reply 287): Mainly attacks AA at MIA but also goes through all the other carrier proposals. Pretty interesting analysis

They gave a good punch in the mouth to B6 too. Lots of taunting at B6's claim at being a low fare carrier.

http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-...fg-cuba-travel-20160315-story.html

And Americans can go to Cuba for tourism now.

Suddenly, AS' 2x dailies doesn't seem so crazy anymore.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 270): Question: if these are scheduled services, how are the airlines going to enforce the no-tourism permitted restriction during the visa process?

Just have the passenger present their permit or letter or whatever it is at check-in, then have the documents double-checked prior to boarding at the gateway city, same as what they do now with the charters.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 270): Question 2: at airport check-in (let's assume on-line check-in is restricted for Cuban flights), what other than tourism documentation needs to be produced?

Not sure but airport agents will be experienced in reviewing documents from dozens (if not hundreds) of other countries so it won't be anything too shocking.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 270): Question 3: it is illegal for US citizens to visit Cuba for tourism, but what happens when a UK national buys a ticket? The tourism restrictions are on the individual, not the airline.

Not a problem. The airline will sell a ticket to whoever wants to buy one and then deny boarding on the day of departure if the passenger doesn't meet their destination country's entry requirements.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 285): Plenty of folks will suffer all manner of inconvenience to save money...

With such limited frequencies, fares will be high across the board. Each airline is going to charge as much as they can.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 285): One would imagine that AS's request for LAX-HAV ought to be denied for virtually the same set of reasons...

AA conveniently ignored that since they applied for the same route.

Quoting crazytoaster (Reply 287): III. As Between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, FLL Will Be the Airport Preferred by Most Cuban American Travelers from South Florida.

  

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 289): And Americans can go to Cuba for tourism now.

Well, yes and no. You're still technically supposed to document that you did something "educational" while you were there; you can't just sit on the beach for your entire trip, but it sounds like pretty much any learning about Cuban culture counts.

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 290): Not a problem. The airline will sell a ticket to whoever wants to buy one and then deny boarding on the day of departure if the passenger doesn't meet their destination country's entry requirements.

Double standard applies here: Cuba has NO restrictions on US citizens visiting for tourism. And seriously- aside from passports airline staff (with the help of TIMATIC) are NOT trained about any other documentation, therefore my original question stands- how are the airlines going to enforce the travel restrictions on US citizens travelling for tourism purposes? As you have pointed out above, US citizens DO meet the destination country's entry requirement- in this case they do not meet the departing country's travel requirements. To further complicate matters, US has no official departure immigration process.

Quoting crazytoaster (Reply 287): III. As Between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, FLL Will Be the Airport Preferred by Most Cuban American Travelers from South Florida. IV. American Airlines’ Service Proposal Fails to Maximize Consumer Benefits and Warrants Only a Fraction of its Excessive MIA Frequency Request.

I saw that, too. But frankly the arguments seem like quite a stretch.

Southwest can say that "Ft. Lauderdale/Miami has long been considered a single airline market served by two airports," but historical reality doesn't seem to support that assertion - at least with respect to Cuba flights. The historical charter data - cited repeatedly by AA - indicates that the vast majority of the charter flights to Cuba, by a factor of 62 to 1, run out of MIA rather than FLL. Surely if the Cuban-American community in South Florida viewed the two airports as truly a "single airline market," there wouldn't have been 4,348 Cuba charters out of MIA (which Southwest admits is, "closer for the largest segment of the Cuban American population") compared to 70 at FLL.

Southwest spends several pages compellingly articulating how FLL is the "center of low fare air service in South Florida" and generates more domestic O&D, at lower fares, than MIA. But of course the reason Southwest spends several pages on these points is to distract from the fact that the market for which such data is relevant - domestic O&D - appears to be vastly at odds with the data for the actual market relevant to this DOT case, which is Cuba.

Again - 4,348 vs 70. The numbers speak for themselves. That's not "a single airline market served by two airports."

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 290): AA conveniently ignored that since they applied for the same route.

Not really. AA didn't deny in its filings that a market exists for LAX-HAV. AA simply asserts - compellingly, in my view - that the market exists to support nowhere near the 14 weekly flights Alaska proposes.

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 290): Quoting ScottB (Reply 285): One would imagine that AS's request for LAX-HAV ought to be denied for virtually the same set of reasons... AA conveniently ignored that since they applied for the same route.

No it didn't. AA even specifically called out that the loads on its LAXHAV charter service suck (50%) to call attention the fact that the route can't support more than a weekly flight. And AA is close to right. It'll be a while before LAXHAV can support more than maybe 3-4 weekly.

Quoting peteinmiami (Reply 283):

AA made much of special check in procedures for Cuba bound passengers. It doesn't seem to be like booking a ticket to MBJ, having a passport, and boarding.

In addition I am not sure that some one can book a hotel room in Cuba online, and of course no arrangements for ground transfers. So most will still use travel agents, except for those able to stay with relatives in Cuba (not many given the low quality of life in that island).

Quoting Yflyer (Reply 291):

Clients of mine went to Cuba, and there were activities that they had to be involved in, with attendance taken. This was last year.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 284):

CUN does have a Caribbean shore, but given that it is seen as being part of Mexico, which no one views as Caribbean, it really isn't seen as a Caribbean resort.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 285):

AA has their spin. If B6 offers flights at cheaper fares out of FLL than AA does out of MIA, folks will just drive the 20-30 extra miles. AA doesn't want that competition, so they are making a federal case out of this.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 292):

Willing to bet that scheduled carriers will want to cover themselves against being accused of "illegal transporting US citizens/residents to a restricted destination".

Quoting commavia (Reply 293):

While I do agree that WN is definitely spinning to justify their arguments, if AA has higher fares out of MIA, than B6/WN have out of FLL then some passengers will use FLL.

You cannot cite charters as evidence, as charters depart from where ever the operator choses to operate from. Market driven economics will impact more once scheduled flights are available.

Where WN becomes nonsensical is where they claim that there is minimal basis for service from EWR. A population of 156k is a fairly large one, and definitely able to sustain a vibrant VFR market. In addition the NY area will generate business and leisure travel.

If AA, B6, and WN can make their cases for the SoFL routes, than I can see DL being denied the MIA slots. They don't have a vibrant international MIA operation, and one can see them withdrawing if they don't like the yield, as their lower frequencies will put them at a disadvantage. I am not sure that DL has a strong following in SoFL either.

Quoting commavia (Reply 293): Ft. Lauderdale/Miami has long been considered a single airline market served by two airports

They need to tread lightly with this. Yes they're both technically part of MFW, but many int'l markets/bilaterals have for decades viewed them separately.

Back in the Bermuda II days for example, FLL was not eligible for LHR service under its MFW co-terminal status, in the way that BWI was for WAS, as an example.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 295): I am not sure that DL has a strong following in SoFL either.

Quite strong.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 295): if AA has higher fares out of MIA, than B6/WN have out of FLL then some passengers will use FLL.

No question. I don't think there's any doubt that people where go where the seats are available at a price point they can afford. That's the story of the airline industry. What I also don't really think is debatable, though, is that the strong preference for the vast majority of the South Florida Cuban-American community - which everyone seems to agree will form the core of this market - is MIA, not FLL.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 295): You cannot cite charters as evidence, as charters depart from where ever the operator choses to operate from. Market driven economics will impact more once scheduled flights are available.

Okay, but do charter operators not "choose to operate from" MIA precisely because of "market driven economics," and specifically the fact that it's where most of the demand is?

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 290): Quoting eta unknown (Reply 270): Question: if these are scheduled services, how are the airlines going to enforce the no-tourism permitted restriction during the visa process? Just have the passenger present their permit or letter or whatever it is at check-in, then have the documents double-checked prior to boarding at the gateway city, same as what they do now with the charters.

That is what is being done every day at MIA , it is a simply form saying that you qualify into one of the 12 categories allowed to travel to Cuba. I think it could be just an added step to the reservation system , just a click confirming that you qualify to travel to Cuba. When there is a will there is a way, and believe me airlines want to tap into the Cuban market

Quoting commavia (Reply 297):

If FLL HAV fares are $200 and MIA $400,better believe that many will fly out of FLL. In addition there is a fairly sizeable Cuban population in Broward, and even some north of that.

With both B6 and WN competing on the FLL HAV route, while AA dominates MIA HAV, I bet fares out of FLL will be lower.