MH370 Flap Found In La Réunion - Part 4

justloveplanes · Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:58 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 87):
I suppose that the available evidence was handed to the Malaysians and they decided it was enough to make their announcement in the way they did. The French on the other need to meet, by law, certain criteria in order to be able to say the same. I´m pretty sure this is what happened.

I think so, French and US laws and processes have a sequence, but from I read on CNN today:

"Najib said the flaperon matches a Boeing 777, the model of the airplane that disappeared, and the characteristics of the piece match the technical specifications provided by Malaysia Airlines for that part of the missing aircraft.

He also said a maintenance seal on the flaperon belongs to MAS, short for Malaysian Airline Systems, as the airline was once called. He added that the paint and a serial number match as well."

So we have a 777 flaperon, with tech specs for Malaysia (not sure what that means), a maintenance seal, paint, serial number matches.

What scenario could there be at this point where the piece isn't from Malaysian Airlines? Some wrong assumptions about the variables?

ikramerica · Thu Aug 06, 2015 4:31 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 82):

Some modeling showed that the 777 could enter near vertically and not break up much. Probably the engines and pods still rip off but not even the whole wing. Not sure we can just assume because one model shows one thing and one shows another that we can ignore any possibilities right now.

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 95):

True but hindsight is 20:20. Should have dropped multiple buoys in a grid with radio and non radio id tags and then when and if any floated ashore you knew what part of the search area they started from. So if this flaperon floats ashore and you find the closest buoy, you get a better idea of where the plane went down, as they likely started from the same area.

WingedMigrator · Thu Aug 06, 2015 4:48 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 82):
It looks like we might be looking at a low-energy crash:

Those guys are prematurely jumping to conclusions and letting their confirmation bias color their thinking. There are other possible and reasonable explanations for the relatively undamaged flaperon that do not imply a low-energy crash or ditching.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 101):
Some modeling showed that the 777 could enter near vertically and not break up much.

That modeling was a cruel joke, riddled with misunderstanding of the physics of a crash. Total rubbish.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 101):
Should have dropped multiple buoys

There are buoys all over the ocean that monitor currents. That's how they do the drift modeling.

Backseater · Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:02 pm

Some cautious statements from the Ex-BEA director, Jean Paul Troadec speaking at a round table on French TV (France 5, C dans l'air, 6 Aug):
- predicting the path of the flaperon may not be easy. Depends on its buoyancy at its submerged part will be subject to ocean currents and its part above water to wind effects.
- in the case of AF447, the BEA used ocean current analyses to try to better identify the crash area. Even though the modeling was over a short period, the results were so wrong as to cause BEA to actually waste a lot of time in their search.

Finn350 · Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:06 pm

Here is a link to an ATSB MH370 Aircraft Debris and Drift Modelling

http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/2015/mh370-drift-analysis.aspx

IADCA · Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:00 pm

Quoting liquidair (Reply 89):
But what I'm saying is that this whole tragic episode has been marred by contradiction after contradiction and I wouldn't be surprised if there were another twist.

The story is fairly coherent if you ignore everything the Malaysian government spews. They seem to be consistently running to the press in order to put their own spin on whatever turn of events occurs.

DeltaMD90 · Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:06 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 82):
It looks like we might be looking at a low-energy crash:

This is exactly what I am talking about. Experts can actually deduce things instead of wondering around in the dark and coming up with crazy theories or concluding nothing. They forget more things in their field than we will ever know about it.

Seriously, these experts can find a smoking hole in the ground and pinpoint the crash to a single screw that was sheared a certain way... that screw among tons (literally) of broken and twisted metal. They aren't perfect but never underestimate them

Quoting liquidair (Reply 89):
I just fail to believe that if there were floating debris, that nobody would have been able to pick it up either via satellites or ships...

I used to agree but you need to comprehend the sheer size of the ocean. What were they saying, the search area was the size of 2 Germanys? Imagine 2 Germanys, make it all water, throw tons of trash all over the place (the ocean is a mess) and then scatter a bit of plane that doesn't sink to the bottom of the ocean. Oh yeah, hopefully your models with their margin of errors are correct and you're supposed to be looking in Germany and not France. Deploy a dozen of planes to comb over square millions of miles of ocean, use satellites (yeah, satellites) to hopefully spot large chunks (if there are any) and have some slow ships on the surface join in.

I was hopeful they would find the plane but I was not at all expecting it. The ocean is HUGE, you can't even imagine it, it is too much to comprehend

D L X · Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:11 pm

If it were a low energy crash, does that not increase the likelyhood of two things: 1) that the plane is more intact, or at least the pieces are bigger, and 2) because of the first thing, the whole body or large chunks of it sank to the ocean floor?

WingedMigrator · Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:20 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 106):
This is exactly what I am talking about. Experts can actually deduce things instead of wondering around in the dark and coming up with crazy theories or concluding nothing. They forget more things in their field than we will ever know about it.

Hold your horses, please, none of the experts quoted in that article are involved in the investigation or have examined the part up close. They are jumping to conclusions based on a preconceived notion that a pilot ditched the aircraft. The (unpowered) flaperon could have separated in flight due to aerodynamic flutter during the final Mach 1 dive; fracture patterns on the attachment points and the trailing edge will tell the story for sure. The only experts we should be listening to are those in the Toulouse analysis lab.

nikeherc · Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:46 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 106):
Seriously, these experts can find a smoking hole in the ground and pinpoint the crash to a single screw that was sheared a certain way... that screw among tons (literally) of broken and twisted metal.

They are good, but it takes more than you may think. Examples:

American Flight 191 DC-10 crash at Chicago: They knew that an engine had separated from photographs of the plane before it crashed. They found a sheared bolt and Elwood Driver, then chairman of the NTSB announced that the cause was the failed bolt. In fact there was much more work to be done until they found out that American had used an unauthorized procedure to change an engine, which caused damage to the pylon attachment structure, allowing the pylon and engine to detach from the aircraft. This led to a cascade of failures ultimately causing the loss of the aircraft. However, they did not determine the cause of the accident by pinpointing the specific shearing of a single screw.

In the case of the Lockheed Electra, the vital clue was that a wing was found a significant distance from the impact site of the fuselage and other wing. This led to a time consuming and difficult analysis of the possible failure modes. Even though the majority of the wreckage was found in a "smoking hole" the significant wreckage that led to determination of probable cause was found in a different location.

These people perform what approach being miracles, but I would doubt that any meaningful conclusion will be reached from just the flaperon.

litz · Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:57 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 107):
If it were a low energy crash, does that not increase the likelyhood of two things: 1) that the plane is more intact, or at least the pieces are bigger, and 2) because of the first thing, the whole body or large chunks of it sank to the ocean floor?

It does indeed make one think that type of scenario could well be possible.

US1549 floated maybe an hour or so? Had it not been roped to boats and pulled to shallower water on the bank, it would have quickly been sitting on the bottom of the Hudson River.

There was very little debris released into the river in that accident; the fuselage (except for the holes in the bottom that allowed water ingress) remained intact.

A cracked/split fuselage would sink even more quickly, as the rate of water ingress would be vastly higher.

However, in this case, we would expect to see more debris.

It could well be that we're now starting to actually see some of this debris.

Kaiarahi · Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:47 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 47):
It's a simplification but also is a simple explanation of the difference. Accidents are "crimes" and a guilty party is sought. Someone is eventually charged, but it doesn't mean they are found guilty.

Not even close.

Backseater · Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:40 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 47):
Uncalled for. It's a simplification but also is a simple explanation of the difference. Accidents are "crimes" and a guilty party is sought. Someone is eventually charged, but it doesn't mean they are found guilty.

An investigation was opened last year in France simply because 4 French citizens were onboard MH370 and are unaccounted for.

The flaperon was found on a French beach and is therefore a piece of evidence in that opened investigation. It was sent to Toulouse to be examined by the expert appointed by the French judge in charge.

DeltaMD90 · Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:37 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 108):
Hold your horses, please, none of the experts quoted in that article are involved in the investigation or have examined the part up close.

Quoting nikeherc (Reply 109):
They are good, but it takes more than you may think.

You are both right. I typed my last post in a hurry and sloppily. I should have said that when the official investigators really examine the evidence, they will use methods and logic similar to what we have heard (regardless whether the source quoted is right or not.) In other words, it's more than simply thinking that the Hudson crash made the flaps look like X so the 777 flaperon should look like X. Much more complex, metallurgical examination, for example, and a lot more in depth analysis is needed

And yes, I was alluding to AA191. They had some hints pointing to the failed pin but it's still amazing they were able to find it, examine it, and put the pieces together

nikeherc · Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:20 pm

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 113):

And yes, I was alluding to AA191. They had some hints pointing to the failed pin but it's still amazing they were able to find it, examine it, and put the pieces together

My point was that it wasn't the failed bolt that caused the crash. Other failures occurred that caused the bolt to fracture. They needed much more wreckage to reconstruct the sequence of failures tha led the engine and pylon to separate. Another important piece of the puzzle was that airlines were carrying out a modification program that required removal of the pylon and engine. As a result, they had additional aircraft including those of Continental and other airlines to examine. Those other aircraft exhibited damage that helped in identifying the failure sequence on AA191. It is likely that since they had all of the wreckage, they would have solved the mystery without this one part. I truly believe that it's going to take a lot more than this one piece of evidence to even determine how this aircraft crashed, much less why.

I'm not really trying to argue or pick a fight, just to emphasize that the investigators are still at square one. Assuming that this part is identified as coming off of MH370, all it really tells us is that the plane likely crashed.

DeltaMD90 · Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:15 pm

Quoting nikeherc (Reply 114):
I'm not really trying to argue or pick a fight, just to emphasize that the investigators are still at square one. Assuming that this part is identified as coming off of MH370, all it really tells us is that the plane likely crashed.

They would not get the answer, but they can probably gain some insight based off examining the damage. General angle and speed can probably be somewhat determined (or at least help narrow it down)

EK413 · Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:42 pm

I've just heard over the radio Australian Investigators saying the flaperon doesn't belong to MH370...

Talking about inconclusive findings!

My thoughts and prayers go out to the families which need to relive this news with no answers...

EK413

MSY-MSP · Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:15 am

Quoting EK413 (Reply 116):
I've just heard over the radio Australian Investigators saying the flaperon doesn't belong to MH370...

Talking about inconclusive findings!

I think they were referring to the other "junk" that has been found.

I found this statement out there:

"A great deal of additional material has been handed over to the police" on Reunion Island, the Joint Agency Coordination Centre said in a statement. "While this is being examined, so far none of it appears to have come from an aircraft."

The one thing that we know so far on this is that the flaperon is from a 777 and that it is an MH flaperon. The logical conclusion is that it is from MH370. I think it is safe to say with 99.9% certainty that this is debris from an impact with the water from MH370. I will leave the .1% out there because neither the french nor Boeing have confirmed the actual aircraft this is from.

Now all of this other "junk" that is going to be the hard part. did it or did it not come from an aircraft? and if so what aircraft did it come from. A lot of this junk is going to turn out to be false leads.

liquidair · Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:36 am

Quoting IADCA (Reply 105):

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 106):
I used to agree but you need to comprehend the sheer size of the ocean. What were they saying, the search area was the size of 2 Germanys? Imagine 2 Germanys, make it all water, throw tons of trash all over the place (the ocean is a mess) and then scatter a bit of plane that doesn't sink to the bottom of the ocean. Oh yeah, hopefully your models with their margin of errors are correct and you're supposed to be looking in Germany and not France. Deploy a dozen of planes to comb over square millions of miles of ocean, use satellites (yeah, satellites) to hopefully spot large chunks (if there are any) and have some slow ships on the surface join in.

To be fair, I agree with both of your statements.

777Jet · Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:38 am

Quoting Gatorman96 (Reply 93):
There is already another thread where this conversation is taking place and if the tin hat posse would like to continue to grace us with their conspiracies, can a thread be created in the non-av section?

A Sci-Fi sub-forum would be more appropriate for some of the conspiracies

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 102):
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 82):It looks like we might be looking at a low-energy crash:

Those guys are prematurely jumping to conclusions and letting their confirmation bias color their thinking. There are other possible and reasonable explanations for the relatively undamaged flaperon that do not imply a low-energy crash or ditching.

And if some different 'guys' proposed that they believe whatever happened matches your pet scenario would you also say: "Those guys are prematurely jumping to conclusions and letting their confirmation bias color their thinking"???

Just wondering

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 102):
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 101):Some modeling showed that the 777 could enter near vertically and not break up much.

That modeling was a cruel joke, riddled with misunderstanding of the physics of a crash. Total rubbish.

Agreed with that!

That modelling was a complete joke and that it came from humans at Texas A&M University was a clue to its credibility

Hook 'em!!!

EK413 · Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:05 am

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 117):
Quoting EK413 (Reply 116):
I've just heard over the radio Australian Investigators saying the flaperon doesn't belong to MH370...

Talking about inconclusive findings!

I think they were referring to the other "junk" that has been found.

Thanks for sharing the article.

Have the French come out with any updates on their findings? Like many of us I'm anxious awaiting any news in regards to MH370.

EK413

Finn350 · Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:28 am

Quoting EK413 (Reply 116):
I've just heard over the radio Australian Investigators saying the flaperon doesn't belong to MH370...

That almost certainly is wrong information, as there are no other unaccounted 777 flaperons besides that of MH370.

EK413 · Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:42 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 121):
Quoting EK413 (Reply 116):
I've just heard over the radio Australian Investigators saying the flaperon doesn't belong to MH370...

That almost certainly is wrong information, as there are no other unaccounted 777 flaperons besides that of MH370.

I agree. Was only repeating what I heard over the radio news...

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 117):

Shared the article and confirmed it was direct reference to the "junk" which has turned up on the beach...

EK413

Backseater · Fri Aug 07, 2015 7:55 am

French authorities seem ready to start searching the ocean around Reunion island for any items that might be floating on the surface or at some depth. The following assets might be involved:
- Gendarmerie: 2 helicopters and 2 light patrol boats
- French Navy (FAZSOI): frigate "Floreal" and patrol ship "Le Malin"
- French Air Force (escadron de transport 50 "Réunion"): 1 but possibly 2 CASA CN 235-300 transport aircraft
No official confirmation yet that the search has actually started.

KarelXWB · Fri Aug 07, 2015 9:48 am

Another (aircraft?) part has been found on the Maldives:

http://www.sun.mv/english/31485

Quote:
Banyan Tree resort has discovered what is believed to be a part of a plane that has been at sea for a long time on the beach.

“It was discovered two months or three months before. I knew that about two days ago. The day it was discovered was a garbage day. On that day, the garbage discovered was taken to the garbage area and it was taken away. Someone saw it, took a picture and posted it (on Facebook). If we had known before, it would be handed to the relevant authorities.” Deputy General Manager of Banyan Tree resort, Mohamed Naeem said.

Photos:
http://twitter.com/mohamedrajih13/status/629586821492576260

Let's see if this part is from MH370 or not.

Backseater · Fri Aug 07, 2015 11:45 am

The Prefect of Reunion Island is holding a press conference to explain the search plan that has just begun.
Main points so far:
- the search is a visual search for floating debris using a CASA aircraft. The aircraft has a standard crew of 3 but there are another 10 additional observers onboard.
- the search area is about 50nm x 30nm to the est of the island
- the weather is not very good close to the island but better further out where the CASA is operating
- helicopters and surface ships will assist in picking up any debris that may be observed from the air
- the initial phase should last about a week

Finn350 · Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:16 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 124):
Let's see if this part is from MH370 or not.

Looks more like a surf board than an aircraft part to me.

Gatorman96 · Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:30 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 126):
Looks more like a surf board than an aircraft part to me.

It's interesting that the piece of trash was notable enough to photograph, but they chose not to notify/turn the object over to the authorities. Agreed that it doesn't look like an aircraft part.

[Edited 2015-08-07 08:30:59]

777Jet · Sat Aug 08, 2015 2:48 am

I'm glad that the competent French Authorities are getting more involved now and are going to put in a decent sounding effort to search for more debris.

Kudos to the French!

Quoting EK413 (Reply 120):
Like many of us I'm anxious awaiting any news in regards to MH370.

As long as you don't get your news from Razak and the Malaysian authorities it is more likely to be credible / honest:

http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/08/06/...-come-undone/?wpmp_switcher=mobile

Miami · Sat Aug 08, 2015 2:52 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 124):
Let's see if this part is from MH370 or not.

The piece has been thrown away,

GrahamHill · Sat Aug 08, 2015 4:22 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 128):
I'm glad that the competent French Authorities are getting more involved now and are going to put in a decent sounding effort to search for more debris.

The Prefect of Reunion Island said that the chances to find more debris are "infinitesimal", but they are searching nonetheless because they "need to be sure".

http://www.clicanoo.re/486149-recher...finitesimales-selon-le-prefet.html (in French)

The debris must be scattered on thousands of square kilometers. I'd be happy if they even find one.

[Edited 2015-08-07 21:23:12]

jumpjet · Sat Aug 08, 2015 9:59 am

Forgive me if this has already been covered but I was looking through a UK Daily Telegraph which was a couple of days old yesterday and they'd interviewed a man who's job is to tidy the beaches on Reunion. He was saying that he'd found various bits and pieces without realising what they were and he'd burnt then along with other items of rubbish. The most worrying thing is that he said he'd found, and subsequently burned, a couple of full suitcases.

RedChili · Sat Aug 08, 2015 2:52 pm

Quoting GrahamHill (Reply 130):
The Prefect of Reunion Island said that the chances to find more debris are "infinitesimal", but they are searching nonetheless because they "need to be sure".

Sounds strange to me. In the vast ocean, you can search for 10 years and still not be sure that you have mot missed something.

lancelot07 · Sat Aug 08, 2015 4:16 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 132):
Sounds strange to me. In the vast ocean, you can search for 10 years and still not be sure that you have mot missed something.

True, but if you don't search you will certainly miss everything, even if it is there

lightsaber · Sun Aug 09, 2015 1:22 pm

I'm glad that the competent French Authorities are getting more involved now and are going to put in a decent sounding effort to search for more debris.[/quote]
I was also glad of the Australian effort. They did more than their fair share, but it looks like the search area was off.

There is still a HUGE amount of ocean to search...

Lightsaber

abba · Sun Aug 09, 2015 7:47 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 134):
There is still a HUGE amount of ocean to search...

Yes, indeed there is!

Backseater · Mon Aug 10, 2015 12:25 pm

Due to weather around Reunion Island, the French CN235-300 could not operate on Saturday but it did yesterday and is flying today.

Without suggesting that the French authorities may be somewhat disingenuous in performing a perfunctory search to the east of Reunion for a week, I think that they do not expect to actually find anything. And that's ok. They probably feel bound by a moral obligation to French and foreign “victims” to search for a while, as a good faith effort. It might be a bit embarrassing if a significant chunk of MH370 was picked up close to their shores by some foreign ship, had they not tried themselves first.

By leading the way, the French also seem to have enticed Mauritius, Madagascar and the Maldives to start their own search efforts. That cannot hurt.

So far, the only indisputable consequence of the flaperon discovery is to have placed Reunion on the world map for anybody that watches the news. Until last month, few people outside France and Indian Ocean Islands knew where Reunion was.

The only drawback is that TV images of pebble beaches dotted with floatsam under overcast skies are not great for tourism. If I were the Prefect of Reunion, I would be tempted to send the Gendarmerie helicopters scan up and down not just the East coast but also the West coast and tell the media about it. That is where the clear lagoons and sandy beaches are for the benefit of natives and tourists alike. Besides, who knows where any other debris might actually end up!

pvjin · Mon Aug 10, 2015 12:42 pm

Some searching should be done in the beaches of Mauritius and Madagascar too for sure. The flaperon was found from the shore, thus one would assume rest of the possible debris out there has already hit those pieces of land.

WarrenPlatts · Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:41 am

Re: Barnacles

I found an interesting (and in hindsight obvious) suggestion to look at oxygen isotope ratios found within the crustacean's shells. Since ¹⁸O is heavier than ¹⁶O, the ¹⁸O tends to get concentrated in regions of net evaporation (hot regions), and tends to get diluted in colder regions of net precipitation (and mouths of freshwater rivers). Barnacle oxygen isotope ratios have already been used to estimate the movements of sea turtles:

http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-08-0...stery-malaysia-airlines-flight-370

Here's an academic paper that has some nice "isoscape" maps:

http://wateriso.utah.edu/waterisotopes/media/PDFs/Bowen_AREPS.pdf

Unfortunately, as you can see, there isn't much variation within the Indian Ocean compared to say the Atlantic Ocean until you get below the 40th parallel (that runs between Australia and Tasmania). On the other hand, measuring oxygen isotope ratios is extremely precise, so maybe they can come up with something...

And here is a quick and easy to read primer on oxygen isotope and the proper jargon:

http://wwwrcamnl.wr.usgs.gov/isoig/res/funda.html

frmrCapCadet · Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:27 pm

In retrospect probably an alert and time table ought to have been put out for all shores which might receive drifting items from the plane.

Following the great quake in Japan Hawaii and the West Coast did receive these, and also at least informal protocols for dealing with it.

Backseater · Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:09 am

Search by folks in Reunion Island completed. Nothing else found.

N14AZ · Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:34 am

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 140):
Search by folks in Reunion Island completed. Nothing else found.

I am glad you posted this here. It seems as if the official thread has become a speculation thread whereas these flap-found-threads here provide real information plus the associated discussion of the facts.

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