MSN 244 EK #104 confirmed on convoy 2016 #30.


Happy New Year ! convoy30 msn244 1/1/2017 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr

MSN 237 EY #10 first & ferry flight to XFW today:


Etihad A380-861 msn 237 by dn280tls, on Flick

MSN 239 EK #100 emerged from final assembly.


Roll out msn239 F-WWSB 11/1/2017 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr

Not much activity lately...

What will be the "highlights" for 2017?

KarelXWB wrote:

MSN 239 EK #100 emerged from final assembly.

Delivery of EK #100 incl. ceremony / special livery?

That's all I can think of right now... was hoping to see ANA's first A380 in 2017 but that's too early (delivery planned for 2019...)

N14AZ wrote:

That's all I can think of right now...

And a new Singapore Airlines A380, including a new cabin product.

MSN 236 EK #98 first and ferry flight to XFW today:


First&Ferry flight msn236 F-WWAP 24/1/2017 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr

MSN 228 EK #94 emerged from cabin fit.


A380 Emirates A6-EUP by Tobias Gudat, on Flickr

Anyone else disappointed there was no fanfare or celebration of the first batch of RR powered Emirates A380`s?
Did the deferrals but a dampener on any such proceedings? Anyway, I would be interested to know how these
first three frames A6-EUM, A6-EUN & A6-EUO are fairing. I note they have been busy on Bangkok, & Kuala
Lumpur for nearly a month, so I`d assume they`d have a handle on the economy of the latest Trent 900
variant by now, & be able to compare it with the GP7072, an engine known for it`s decent efficiency. It`s not
likely this comparison would be broadcast by them, but someone in the know might avail us here on such info.

Tedd wrote:

Anyone else disappointed there was no fanfare or celebration of the first batch of RR powered Emirates A380`s?

Trying to blow up alleged shortcomings into a massive fail didn't work out as projected for our Quality Media?
( At the time I was surprised at the over night step change in tone and the sudden step down shortly after.)

Better to move that out of sight before the message goes belly up and turns positive.

Interview with QF's CEO Alan Joyce, in which he is asked to comment on the outstanding eight A380s. No surprise, that he replies QF will receive a lot of dreamliners in the next years but no A380s. What is maybe worth mentioning is that he sees a role for QF's A380s on routes within Asia (besides Hong Kong), at least during peak seasons.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... turnaround

Warning: be careful when you read a.net secretly during work or at home, the video starts automatically when you click the link

MSN 238 EK #99 first & ferry flight to XFW yesterday:


Ferry flight msn238 F-WWAY 27/1/2017 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr

MSN 233 EY #9 emerged from cabin fit.


A380 Etihad A6-APJ by Tobias Gudat, on Flickr

AF finally cancelled the two remaining airframes. The total number of A380-orders is now 317.

The cancellation became effective in January 2017.

How many "safe" A380 orders are left now?

I mean we will not see the remaining Virgin Atlantic, those 2 from AF, then there are the more than doubtful A380 orders from Amedeo, and then there are those from Qantas. So what realistic backlog are we talking about? And when will production end?

I track orders and deliveries. My numbers are as follows:

Customers - 27 each
Customer cancellations - 8 each
Customer orders on hold - 5 each
Customer completed orders - 9 each
Customer orders to be completed - 5 each

Deliveries – 207 each
To be manufactured – 40 each
Manufactured (waiting delivery) – 23 each
Cancellations – 45 each
On hold – 47 each

Total Safe orders – 63 each

Thank you. So 40 more to be built. This will likely bring the programme to 2020 +- 2 years.

Since I do not really expect any new orders I wonder whether Airbus will be able to mothball the A380 production from 2020 to 2025 and develop a NEO for 2025 (the latest announcements are not really positive, as we know), or if Airbus will cancel the project by then.

Shouldn't EK reorder A380s anyway? AFAIK they're on the record to just lease them for twelve years each. So there must be some upcoming number needing replacement regardless of ceo or neo availability.

To me Airbus leadership's public confidence in the program's future and the super low production rates announced don't seem to add up. So there must be something in the pipeline like some big order expected. This might be the reason they fiddle around with the cabin interior, denser seating and such. Maybe some more interim PIP or similar upgrade and Sir Tim might be willing to sign?

Noshow wrote:

Shouldn't EK reorder A380s anyway?

Yes, they will likely order more for replacement (and perhaps expansion once they move to DWC). SQ might also continue to replace their existing frames as they come due for retirement.

Noshow wrote:

To me Airbus leadership's public confidence in the program's future and the super low production rates announced don't seem to add up.

They have to publicly express confidence right up until they cancel it - much as Boeing has been with the 747-8 program.

Noshow wrote:

Shouldn't EK reorder A380s anyway? AFAIK they're on the record to just lease them for twelve years each. So there must be some upcoming number needing replacement regardless of ceo or neo availability.

My understanding is that some of the aircraft already on order at EK will be to replace the earlier A380s currently in service.

V/F

Stitch wrote:

Noshow wrote:

Shouldn't EK reorder A380s anyway?

Yes, they will likely order more for replacement (and perhaps expansion once they move to DWC). SQ might also continue to replace their existing frames as they come due for retirement.

I doubt that the financing will work out as long as there isn't a good 2nd hand market. DWC should allow EK to grow by adding frequencies instead of bigger planes.

pompos wrote:

Stitch wrote:

Noshow wrote:

Shouldn't EK reorder A380s anyway?

Yes, they will likely order more for replacement (and perhaps expansion once they move to DWC). SQ might also continue to replace their existing frames as they come due for retirement.

I doubt that the financing will work out as long as there isn't a good 2nd hand market. DWC should allow EK to grow by adding frequencies instead of bigger planes.

A large number of their existing frames are financed by Doric / Nimrod sale and leasebacks. If the early frames make a sufficient return for those investors, then I see no reason why more won't be financed that way.

VirginFlyer wrote:

Noshow wrote:

Shouldn't EK reorder A380s anyway? AFAIK they're on the record to just lease them for twelve years each. So there must be some upcoming number needing replacement regardless of ceo or neo availability.

My understanding is that some of the aircraft already on order at EK will be to replace the earlier A380s currently in service.

V/F

Once EK started to believe production would be coming to a close, would the airline not be inclined to considering ordering some extra A380's? An additional A380 order before production stoppage would keep their fleet numbers up for longer in the 2020's. I guess I am assuming that the type is the best option for certain routes where substitution of a 777X (due to A380 frames being retired) would be less than ideal.

EK has recently deferred A380 deliveries, appears to be hitting some growing pains, and has admitted that this year will likely be another challenging one for them. They may be reconsidering how large they want their overall A380 fleet to be, and/or how quickly they turnover their existing fleet. Eventually if Airbus never updates the A380 there will come a point where it makes no financial sense to order A380s over 777Xs or A350-1000/2000s (whatever they are calling the potential stretch nowadays) even if that means a slight cut to capacity.

It is going to be very difficult for EK to finance new A380's to replace old A380's at current rates if there is no secondary market for the type. As such, EK's plans to retire aircraft at the 12 year mark may need to be reconsidered. EK may need to keep aircraft for 18 years to cover the costs if a cabin refurbishment and major maintenance checks and engine overhauls.

This could put EK's delivery cycle out by 3-4 years.

travelhound wrote:

It is going to be very difficult for EK to finance new A380's to replace old A380's at current rates if there is no secondary market for the type. As such, EK's plans to retire aircraft at the 12 year mark may need to be reconsidered. EK may need to keep aircraft for 18 years to cover the costs if a cabin refurbishment and major maintenance checks and engine overhauls.

This could put EK's delivery cycle out by 3-4 years.

The final lease balloon payment either includes returning with a clean cabin, or a new cabin, depending on how the aircraft was originally delivered by the leasing company (sale/leaseback v new lease).

The same applies to maintenance and inspections, both for the air frame and engines. The leasee does not escape liability by returning aircraft with hours remaining before major costs are incurred. The cost (part of the final balloon payment) is calculated on a pro rata basis, so 1% hours remaining to major inspection when the lease ends, means the leasee pays 99% of the projected inspection and remedial work costs. Airlines with in-house technical capability, usually manage hours so they get as close to 100% before lease expiry, undertake inspections and maintenance, then store the aircraft until the lease expires (if well managed, only days later).

So at 12 years, EK will be liable for refurbishment costs, irrespective of whether the aircraft is returned, or the lease is extended. The wild card, is the willingness of the leasor to forgive some/all of these costs if the lease is extended, and/or how the new lease plus refurbishment and accrued maintenance are treated (combined in lease, up front balloon payment, tail end balloon payment).

A barometer of EK's intentions, will be how utilisation, inspections, maintenance and refurbishment are managed as the 12 year leases approach expiry.

Funding syndicate participants, do not always share windfall gains or losses, at the end of leases. Gains may have a detrimental impact on participants tax, so an unpleasant, unwelcome surprise. For some, a book loss, may be advantageous. The lease company ownership structure can absorb any gain or loss if the aircraft is not sold out, which can be treated in many different ways, especially if the company owns multiple aircraft in the same ownership structure.

Another misunderstanding, is what happens to aircraft ownership, whether the lease is extended, or a new leasee is found. Usually, the aircraft will be sold from the existing ownership company to a new or existing different ownership company. Rarely, if ever, will the same funding syndicate participants stay with the same aircraft. This gives a clean break, especially for tax purposes.

The leasee may agree to purchase the aircraft and engines, creating a multitude of different financial treatments and settlement prices and options. More so for a model with no established used market. There may be side agreements in place between leasor and leasee (though usually once or twice removed for legal / tax purposes), where end of lease purchase prices (formula based on age, hours, cycles, other) have already been agreed.

Final variable. Are there buybacks in place with Airbus, that can be activated at EK's discretion? If yes on the early deliveries, it's likely these aircraft will be taken out of service early to optimise values. Outcome. Airbus and EK agree a net value, and they stay with EK, or form the basis of an EK LCC (called FlyDubai?), or are scrapped, or are sold back to the leasor, or....................

Planesmart wrote:

travelhound wrote:

It is going to be very difficult for EK to finance new A380's to replace old A380's at current rates if there is no secondary market for the type. As such, EK's plans to retire aircraft at the 12 year mark may need to be reconsidered. EK may need to keep aircraft for 18 years to cover the costs if a cabin refurbishment and major maintenance checks and engine overhauls.

This could put EK's delivery cycle out by 3-4 years.

The final lease balloon payment either includes returning with a clean cabin, or a new cabin, depending on how the aircraft was originally delivered by the leasing company (sale/leaseback v new lease).

All of EK's leased A380s are via sale-and-leaseback deals. Most, if not all, are held via Doric Nimrod Capital LLC via individual wholly-owned subsidiaries (one per airframe).

Stitch wrote:

All of EK's leased A380s are via sale-and-leaseback deals. Most, if not all, are held via Doric Nimrod Capital LLC via individual wholly-owned subsidiaries (one per airframe).

Perhaps when EK took up four aircraft originally allocated to Amedeo (part of the 20 order, though the effect was neutral - EK acquired 4x Amedeo early orders, and Amedeo acquired orders for 4x later EK aircraft), these were treated differently than their predecessors?

Aren't later leases for multiple A380's? Economies of scale when bundling multiple aircraft.

We simply don't know the terms of the agreements EK has with its leasing partners.

Early build aircraft could have lease agreements with Airbus as a third party. If so, these agreements should not be considered as typical for a A380 lease agreement.

Fundamentally, the issue of financing an A380 will come down to the liquidity of the aircraft in the secondary markets. If there is no demand for the aircraft in the secondary market the lessors will have to consider this when deciding on a lease rate for a new aircraft on 12-year terms.

With many of EK's A380 lease agreements ready to expire during a down-turn in the market, this only adds complexity to the problem. EK (and Airbus) have two (three) choices. Renew leases on existing aircraft and defer deliveries of new aircraft or return aircraft at the end of the leases and continue taking new build aircraft from Airbus (or return aircraft at the end of leases and defer delivery of new build aircraft).

I suspect it could be advantages for EK to scrap 4-5 aircraft to help support a fleet of 100+ aircraft. I also suspect it could be advantages for Airbus to take back some of the early build aircraft to assist in maintaining current production rates.

If this is the case than there could already be a cushion in place to help protect the lessors and EK from adverse short-term market conditions.

MSN 4, the air show testbed, will join the Musée de l'Air et de l'Espace museum in Le Bourget later this month.
MSN 2, the private jet that was never taken up, will join the Aeroscopia museum in Toulouse in 2019.

https://twitter.com/vguillermard/status ... 2903559168

Airbus will keep MSN 1 for further testing.

I think 2017 will be a quiet year for the A380.But in 2018 they will have to say something.It will be the year the 400+ seater 777-9 flies.Clearly they are looking at a range of internal mod's (front and rear staircases amongst others) to maximise the use of the internal volume.But (IMHO) they will have to re engine (T7000+?) and do wingtip mods to keep it top of the pile in terms of economics.There is probably a 150+ aircraft replacement market.If they don't keep it Boeing will take it so it's a no brainier really.But we shall see.

G'day

KarelXWB wrote:

MSN 4, the air show testbed, will join the Musée de l'Air et de l'Espace museum in Le Bourget later this month.

With this aircraft going to be mothballed in the museum why on earth are Airbus performing what appear to be test flights around Toulouse? Customer acceptance flights by the museum maybe?

https://www.flightradar24.com/AIB32DD/c640445


Cheers

Peter

KarelXWB wrote:

MSN 2, the private jet that was never taken up, will join the Aeroscopia museum in Toulouse in 2019.

So it's more attractive for Airbus to donate it rather than selling it, even at a very low price?
I would love to know how hard Airbus tried to sale MSN002. From the outside it looks as if they didn't find a single VVIP-operator who would have been interested in it...which is strange, since there are at least some operators willing to finance and operate a B748i...

N14AZ wrote:

KarelXWB wrote:

MSN 2, the private jet that was never taken up, will join the Aeroscopia museum in Toulouse in 2019.

So it's more attractive for Airbus to donate it rather than selling it, even at a very low price?

I'm sure they were fishing for offers, but if no one is biting...
Remember not only was this a test frame, but it is also an early bird which with the A380 means it was essentially rewired by hand and is basically unique compared to later production standards.

N14AZ wrote:

I would love to know how hard Airbus tried to sale MSN002. From the outside it looks as if they didn't find a single VVIP-operator who would have been interested in it...which is strange, since there are at least some operators willing to finance and operate a B748i...

They did originally sell it, to a prince in Saudi Arabia. But the buyer pulled out and Airbus has been unable to find a replacement. Outside of oil sheiks nobody is interested in buying an aircraft this large for personal use, and there are internal politics that must be considered (who can have the largest jet). Also the last couple of years have been rough for them.

Polot wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

I would love to know how hard Airbus tried to sale MSN002. From the outside it looks as if they didn't find a single VVIP-operator who would have been interested in it...which is strange, since there are at least some operators willing to finance and operate a B748i...

They did originally sell it, to a prince in Saudi Arabia. But the buyer pulled out and Airbus has been unable to find a replacement.

Yes, of course. Sorry, poor wording from my side. I meant "how hard did Airbus try to sale MSN 002 a f t e r the deal with Prince Alwaleed failed.


Source: http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... a380-order

It's hard to imagine that besides Prince Alwaleed no one was interested in having a VVIP A380. But it must be due to the reasons you mentioned above...

The poblem is to find hangars big enough and willing to convert them. Some VVIP-customers are hard to deal with and suddenly change everything. So you can neither plan hangar time in advance neither expect to get paid properly. This is the actual problem not a story.
This is why cabin interior centers prefer to have three different VVIP-A321 in the same hangar space instead of one A380 that might never be taken up for some funny reason.

N14AZ wrote:

KarelXWB wrote:

MSN 2, the private jet that was never taken up, will join the Aeroscopia museum in Toulouse in 2019.

So it's more attractive for Airbus to donate it rather than selling it, even at a very low price?
I would love to know how hard Airbus tried to sale MSN002. From the outside it looks as if they didn't find a single VVIP-operator who would have been interested in it...which is strange, since there are at least some operators willing to finance and operate a B748i...

For Boeing due to program accounting it seems to make some sense to spend more money on a refurbish than
the buyer will pay. ( per early frame $500m forced to be written off or preferably kept in "deferred production".)

For Airbus the cost for those frames already is a historic item booked years ago as outlay.

MSN 241 EK #102 emerged from final assembly.


Roll out msn241 F-WWSG 7/2/2017 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr

travelhound wrote:

With many of EK's A380 lease agreements ready to expire during a down-turn in the market, this only adds complexity to the problem. EK (and Airbus) have two (three) choices. Renew leases on existing aircraft and defer deliveries of new aircraft or return aircraft at the end of the leases and continue taking new build aircraft from Airbus (or return aircraft at the end of leases and defer delivery of new build aircraft).

If the renew lease / purchase the leased aircraft is financially advantageous enough, it should not be assumed only new A380's orders could be deferred. If A380's are kept on fleet for a fraction of the price of a new 777X................

Also, softness in the A380 used market could affect the 777X. The finance market sees this as a niche model, almost a mirror image of the A380 at present in terms of ordering customers, and purchase distribution across customers. Already deferral negotiations. Finance industry appetite will be interesting, especially how active Boeing Capital is in packaging funding and underwriting deals.

KarelXWB wrote:

MSN 4, the air show testbed, will join the Musée de l'Air et de l'Espace museum in Le Bourget later this month.
MSN 2, the private jet that was never taken up, will join the Aeroscopia museum in Toulouse in 2019.

https://twitter.com/vguillermard/status ... 2903559168

Airbus will keep MSN 1 for further testing.

Airbus is confirming it with a press release:

Transfer of A380 MSN4 to the Le Bourget aerospace museum
http://www.airbus.com/newsevents/news-e ... ce-museum/

travelhound wrote:

We simply don't know the terms of the agreements EK has with its leasing partners.

The Doric Nimrod deals are public knowledge through their prospectus to potential investors. For MSN77, the airframe was purchased direct from Airbus for $234 million and leased back to Emirates for 10 years at a rate of just over $26 million. Emirates also paid a $24 million down payment and has a balloon payment on lease end of just under $28 million. So in total, EK will pay Doric just over $314 million for the frame (averaging $31 million a year). That deal does not include the four GP7200 engines, which were handled via a separate deal with Commerzbank AG of Germany.

travelhound wrote:

Early build aircraft could have lease agreements with Airbus as a third party. If so, these agreements should not be considered as typical for a A380 lease agreement.

Doric Aircraft Finance carries the paper for the bulk of early A380 deliveries, including SQ, EK and LH frames. They purchased the frames direct from Airbus and lease them out to the operators.

travelhound wrote:

Fundamentally, the issue of financing an A380 will come down to the liquidity of the aircraft in the secondary markets. If there is no demand for the aircraft in the secondary market the lessors will have to consider this when deciding on a lease rate for a new aircraft on 12-year terms.

Are any A380s currently owned and leased by what one would consider a "traditional" aircraft lessor like GECAS or ILFC/AerCap? I believe the bulk are leased via Doric and as long as they can find investors, the secondary values might not be an issue since the deals are structured to make the return on the original contract - a lease extension, re-lease, re-sale or scrap is just bonus.

N14AZ wrote:

From the outside it looks as if they didn't find a single VVIP-operator who would have been interested in (MSN002)...which is strange, since there are at least some operators willing to finance and operate a B748i...

Even the 747-8 VIP market is soft. LN1446 has not found a new buyer since it's original passed (a Saudi Prince) and Boeing has a "white tail" (LN1495) stored, as well.

TheSonntag wrote:

How many "safe" A380 orders are left now?

I mean we will not see the remaining Virgin Atlantic, those 2 from AF, then there are the more than doubtful A380 orders from Amedeo, and then there are those from Qantas. So what realistic backlog are we talking about? And when will production end?

Possibly not any time some.

I would take all this with a grain of salt since it's only hear say but,
Apparently* the A380-900 lives. At least on paper anyway.

I was in St Louis for a little family get together on my girlfriend's side this past weekend. One of her cousin's that was there has a good friend that works for Airbus in Mobile was telling me a little about it. Hence it may just be a rumour.
But apparently it will replace the -800 and therefore not be called a NEO.
It's supposedly a little shorter than the original -900 length and is currently receiving wing design. He said it will likely be similar to the A330NEO wings. So I assume raked with blended winglets.
Should also have the Raccoon mask.
Supposed to make a lot more use of composites, launch with "new engines should be ready around early - mid next decade". I assume the Ultrafan?
And last but not least a slightly pointier nose like the A350's and a slightly smaller VTP. Though he did say those were unlikely but was mentioned.

But again, i'd take everything with a grain of salt since there are no other sources.

Airbus is continuously reviewing updates and refreshes to the A380, but whether any of those will ever make it to Authority to Offer, much less actual sales and production...

Good point.


I did some searching and did find these 2 articles from 2015 mentioning a slight stretch,

http://m.aviationweek.com/paris-air-sho ... retch-a380

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ch-413552/

And then this more recent one from last year about new wing tips and engines that should be ready by 2025,

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalkin ... wing-tips/


So I guess the glass does appear to be half full afterall. In terms of what he said anyway.
Of course, that doesn't mean it will happen.

Stitch wrote:

The Doric Nimrod deals are public knowledge through their prospectus to potential investors. For MSN77, the airframe was purchased direct from Airbus for $234 million and leased back to Emirates for 10 years at a rate of just over $26 million. Emirates also paid a $24 million down payment and has a balloon payment on lease end of just under $28 million. So in total, EK will pay Doric just over $314 million for the frame (averaging $31 million a year). That deal does not include the four GP7200 engines, which were handled via a separate deal with Commerzbank AG of Germany.

This could be a different type of lease arrangement where EK retain ownership of the aircraft when the lease expires. At a 4.5% interest rate and using the same payment terms you mentioned EK could pay this aircraft off after ten years. I know EK are nice people to deal with, but this does seem to be a little bit too nice.

Planesmart wrote:

If the renew lease / purchase the leased aircraft is financially advantageous enough, it should not be assumed only new A380's orders could be deferred. If A380's are kept on fleet for a fraction of the price of a new 777X................

All good points. I suppose with the state of world affairs there are quite a few industries in a state of flux. Hopefully, the world will be a more stable place once the 77X hits the market.

MSN 234 EK EK #97 first & ferry flight to XFW yesterday:


First flight msn234 F-WWAN 9/2/2017 by A380_TLS_A350, on Flickr

MSN 232 EK #96 emerged from paint and cabin fit in XFW.


A380 Emirartes A6-EUR by Tobias Gudat, on Flickr

KarelXWB wrote:

MSN 232 EK #96 emerged from paint and cabin fit in XFW.

??? But something is missing... .... a new weight-saving-programme?
Seriously, I never saw an EK-A380 leaving the paint hangar without titles.

Slug71 wrote:

So I guess the glass does appear to be half full afterall. In terms of what he said anyway.
Of course, that doesn't mean it will happen.

Thank you for your reply. Sounds interesting, we willl see what will happen. 2025 would also make sense for many airlines as it fits the replacement circle.

N14AZ wrote:

KarelXWB wrote:

MSN 232 EK #96 emerged from paint and cabin fit in XFW.

??? But something is missing... .... a new weight-saving-programme?
Seriously, I never saw an EK-A380 leaving the paint hangar without titles.

Special livery maybe ?

Or perhaps the first of the airframes that they are deferring until next year ?