williaminsd
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Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 1:16 am

An overview of the Southwest's service to/in Hawaii to date, plus impact of Max.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/05/ ... plans.aspx
 
AWACSooner
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 2:17 am

Good for them...
 
Antarius
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 2:47 am

727200 wrote:
How would this idiot know anything? It just started. As anyone with more than 3 brain cells knows. You cant make a statement like that unless you are trying to raise the stock price.


Considering the quote about doing extremely well came from Gary Kelly, one would hope/suspect Kelly knows something.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD MEL DEN BLR MAA DEL KTM YYZ MEX
 
AMALH747430
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 3:37 am

Southwest will have some impact on the market but Southwest doesn't have an aircraft that can operate the hourly shuttle type operation that Hawaiian offers. I think Southwest will make money in Hawaii but I don't think they'll be as robust of a competitor as Aloha or go when it comes to interisland flights. I think they will be a tough competitor on US west coast - Hawaii routes though. That's the area of concern for Hawaiian in my opinion.
 
Max Q
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 8:48 am

It still remains to be seen how well their engines hold up on these very short routes

Even if they rotate the aircraft through long and short hauls it could be an expensive exercise
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 8:57 am

Still skeptical about the long term viability of WN in Hawaii interisland. Their capacity at HNL is extremely limited and HA will have something to say about any WN expansion. Stuff like opening up a line to a small market like ITO is plain idiotic.

Frankly Hawaii is a saturated market. There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.
 
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RWA380
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 9:16 am

Max Q wrote:
It still remains to be seen how well their engines hold up on these very short routes

Even if they rotate the aircraft through long and short hauls it could be an expensive exercise


From what it looks like it's a three day rotation, WN flies to HNL the first day, then the next day, their 738's fly an Inter Island schedule for the entire day, with about 50 minutes between flights, this is an extra 20 minutes or so longer than HA. IMHO, it's barely enough time to unload baggage & passengers, spruce up the aircraft & reboard the return passengers. The third day the plane & inflight crew go back home. Fifty minutes seems comparable to their turns on the mainland.

AMALH747430 wrote:
Southwest will have some impact on the market but Southwest doesn't have an aircraft that can operate the hourly shuttle type operation that Hawaiian offers. I think Southwest will make money in Hawaii but I don't think they'll be as robust of a competitor as Aloha or go when it comes to interisland flights. I think they will be a tough competitor on US west coast - Hawaii routes though. That's the area of concern for Hawaiian in my opinion.


Southwest hasn't the capacity at HNL for an operation with HA style frequency, their 4 gates are exclusive, but very limiting. Secondly as of now, WN has not made any statement that would indicate they intend to operate with that frequency.

I lived in Hawaii for several years, albeit a couple decades ago. The Inter Island market has changed little. The business people, they fly HA, for their frequency & the loyalty program that allows rewards to Vegas & Disney. Maybe a few business people will switch, but the real Island Hoppers, will be loyal to HA.

But there is a huge non-loyal local market, these are the same great folks that travel in groups of 20-30, I had a hardcore group of the funnest people as clients, they all belonged to the NECA/IBEW chapter. But flying even for family visits, or to see Unles, Aunties & all the keikis, people fly with coolers filled with homemade goods to share, family favorites, lots of ahi & poke.

WN is going to get these groups hands down, just for the baggage allowences. Plus often people are Island surfing & they anyone who wou;ld fly WN on the mainland, to Hawaii will certainly ensure they are on WN as well.

The article indicates WN has garnered 10% Inter Island marketshare, that means HA & (MW or now 9X) have the other 90%, I bet WN has 20-25% by end of the year. With just a 4 r/t a day cap, per Inter Island destination, given their current 4 gate set up at HNL & with the consideration that both LIH & ITO coming online later this year, that means those 4 gates at HNL will handle only 16 departures & arrivals of their Inter Island flights, plus whatever number of mainland flights they plan to eventually operate from HNL, at it's peak, it'll be at least doubling the number of flights to 32 daily arrivals & departures. Since WN won't be sending any red-eyes out for the forseeable future, how much more gate utilization can WN expect to sustain, given it's filled with RON's from 8-9 pm, until the next morning?
707, 717, 720, 727-1/2, 737-1/2/3/4/5/7/8/9, 747-1/2/3, 757, 767-2/3/4, 777-2/3, DC8, DC9, MD80/2/7/8, D10-1/3/4, M11, L10-2/5, A300/310/319/320
AA AC AQ BM BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WN WP YS 8M
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 12:04 pm

Antarius wrote:
727200 wrote:
How would this idiot know anything? It just started. As anyone with more than 3 brain cells knows. You cant make a statement like that unless you are trying to raise the stock price.


Considering the quote about doing extremely well came from Gary Kelly, one would hope/suspect Kelly knows something.


The problem is, the statement is incredibly vague. U.S. carriers don't cite route profits. They don't give route load factors. They don't give route avg fares (although those are available with delay from DOT-100s). Doing extraordinarily well has little meaning. Exceeding expectations has no meaning. Don't be suckered.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 12:21 pm

While I am not a fan of Motley, this seems like an informative story. And humorously, Southwest should be flying the most SW of the US States - almost like the home team name.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
tphuang
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 12:47 pm

At this point, unless the planes are going around half empty, Gary Kelly is going to say they are doing great. HI is a long term commitment play by WN. They are not expecting to make money for probably 3 years. And that's a huge problem for HA. Keep in mind, these intra-island routes are not exactly flowing in with money. The yields are not great. HA probably did well enough on them with baggage fees and cargo revenues. With WN coming in taking some of that cargo revenues and capturing some tourists that like the no baggage fees, it's going to significantly cut into HA's revenue on these routes. I don't see how you can add 25% or more capacity on any market and not hurt the yield even if a lot of that are filled with connection traffic from the mainland.

HA is getting a reprieve due to the MAX grounding, but I can see Q3 and Q4 being really bad for them.
 
BeachBoy
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 1:01 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


I live in Hawaii.
This is not true at all.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 2:53 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
The problem is, the statement is incredibly vague. U.S. carriers don't cite route profits. They don't give route load factors. They don't give route avg fares (although those are available with delay from DOT-100s). Doing extraordinarily well has little meaning. Exceeding expectations has no meaning. Don't be suckered.


Perfectly stated. Don't ever believe what you hear from an airline executive...you have to wait for the real numbers (if they even share them).
 
bob75013
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 2:55 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
The problem is, the statement is incredibly vague. U.S. carriers don't cite route profits. They don't give route load factors. They don't give route avg fares (although those are available with delay from DOT-100s). Doing extraordinarily well has little meaning. Exceeding expectations has no meaning. Don't be suckered.


Perfectly stated. Don't ever believe what you hear from an airline executive...you have to wait for the real numbers (if they even share them).


And yet WN just announced even more inter island service.

You think it would do that if the exiting service wasn't, at a minimum, meeting expectations?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 3:18 pm

I don't doubt Hawaii will tax tourists. But too much kills other jobs (hotel construction, tourist related work). If prices go too high, Honeymooners shift to Fiji or a cruise. Vacation travel is a perfectly elastic market if you put in a cost for time.

bob75013 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
The problem is, the statement is incredibly vague. U.S. carriers don't cite route profits. They don't give route load factors. They don't give route avg fares (although those are available with delay from DOT-100s). Doing extraordinarily well has little meaning. Exceeding expectations has no meaning. Don't be suckered.


Perfectly stated. Don't ever believe what you hear from an airline executive...you have to wait for the real numbers (if they even share them).


And yet WN just announced even more inter island service.

You think it would do that if the exiting service wasn't, at a minimum, meeting expectations?

WN will have decent estimates of costs and know the startup yield. I fully expect them to expand service. I also expect some variation. For example fly in, stay overnight, hop to another island and then fly mainland. Another flight did the same thing. Other flights provide a direct return.

Once the MAX is back in service, expect flights from LAS, PHX, and DEN to the islands. WN has a customer base. The ratio of flights to the islands to inter island flights will eventually tell us how accepting/profitable that inter island service is.

Lightsaber
You know nothing John Snow.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 3:30 pm

Don't ever believe what you hear from an airline executive


This is the sort of silly statement of which there are far too many on a.net. Yes, whenever opinions are asserted we need to consider and assess the sources. Executives are known for spin (as are everyone else, including a-netters)
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 3:37 pm

Frankly Hawaii is a saturated market. There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


From what I'm reading, that isn't probable. The real issue is that the islands can support a certain number of people at any given time, based upon infrastructure - emergency services, food, and above all, housing. Several islands have gone above this number on more than one occasion, far more than one in Maui's case. That's a big reason that the locals give tourists the stink eye so often; the touristas are literally so underfoot that the locals are hemmed in within their own homes and communities, and services are "taxed" to the limit. The real solution would be to cap the number of planes and passengers to maintain the islands at or below that critical number. Indeed, the state recently voted to partially defund a state supported tourism board because of these events. It may have been Maui instead of the whole state, I'll see if I can find the cite, but the basic truth of that remains.
 
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Polot
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 3:40 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
The real solution would be to cap the number of planes and passengers to maintain the islands at or below that critical number.

I doubt Hawaii has any legal standing to implement something like that. You are talking about restricting interstate travel/commerce.
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 3:47 pm

Polot wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
The real solution would be to cap the number of planes and passengers to maintain the islands at or below that critical number.

I doubt Hawaii has any legal standing to implement something like that. You are talking about restricting interstate travel/commerce.


Tourism fees charged through airline tickets, car rentals, and hotels/vacation rentals. Include a way for people who can prove residency in Hawaii to be exempt from them. Find the right amount of taxation to keep tourists coming, but not too many.

Could also make every Hawaii airport an IATA level 3 slot controlled airport, but that's also equally improbable.

lightsaber wrote:
I don't doubt Hawaii will tax tourists. But too much kills other jobs (hotel construction, tourist related work). If prices go too high, Honeymooners shift to Fiji or a cruise. Vacation travel is a perfectly elastic market if you put in a cost for time.

bob75013 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:

Perfectly stated. Don't ever believe what you hear from an airline executive...you have to wait for the real numbers (if they even share them).


And yet WN just announced even more inter island service.

You think it would do that if the exiting service wasn't, at a minimum, meeting expectations?

WN will have decent estimates of costs and know the startup yield. I fully expect them to expand service. I also expect some variation. For example fly in, stay overnight, hop to another island and then fly mainland. Another flight did the same thing. Other flights provide a direct return.

Once the MAX is back in service, expect flights from LAS, PHX, and DEN to the islands. WN has a customer base. The ratio of flights to the islands to inter island flights will eventually tell us how accepting/profitable that inter island service is.

Lightsaber


MAX isn't coming back in service anytime soon, not holding my breath until well into 2020. WN also has something else coming to them if they wanna go all-MAX in Hawaii kind of like AC, with customer fears (albeit overblown by mainstream and social media).

DEN is at the edge of MAX 8 range unless WN plans on dedicating a good chunk of the MAX 7 fleet to Hawaii runs.

As I've said in other WN & Hawaii threads, the local reaction to WN is a mixed bag. Competition is welcome, but skepticism about long term viability is the elephant in the room - can interisland traffic support HA and WN? Locals who fly HA on a regular basis aren't gonna defect, with loyalty to the local airline, more frequencies. There's a mentality of "WN is good when flying in the mainland, but I'm gonna stick with HA". Furthermore, I believe that if its crunch time economically and WN needs to shrink its network - Hawaii interisland is one of the first victims.
Last edited by Aceskywalker on Thu May 23, 2019 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 3:51 pm

Polot wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
The real solution would be to cap the number of planes and passengers to maintain the islands at or below that critical number.

I doubt Hawaii has any legal standing to implement something like that. You are talking about restricting interstate travel/commerce.


It would also have a negative impact on locals as it would raise airfares. Any attempt to reduce or restrict tourism would have to start on the islands.
 
737max8
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 3:56 pm

I know full flights don't mean profitable, but the 175 seaters are going out full, so....something is working.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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barney captain
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 4:05 pm

I've lost count of the number of "thank you's" from the locals while doing the interisland flying - and not just from the passengers - from people on the street.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
Antarius
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 4:08 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
727200 wrote:
How would this idiot know anything? It just started. As anyone with more than 3 brain cells knows. You cant make a statement like that unless you are trying to raise the stock price.


Considering the quote about doing extremely well came from Gary Kelly, one would hope/suspect Kelly knows something.


The problem is, the statement is incredibly vague. U.S. carriers don't cite route profits. They don't give route load factors. They don't give route avg fares (although those are available with delay from DOT-100s). Doing extraordinarily well has little meaning. Exceeding expectations has no meaning. Don't be suckered.


They have added more and announced more service, so either they're fooling us all, or things seem to be doing ok.

As always, take stuff with a grain a salt, but WN behavior is consistent so far with their statements.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD MEL DEN BLR MAA DEL KTM YYZ MEX
 
DenverTed
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 4:15 pm

Probably wait until the screaming deals are over to pass too much judgement.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 4:36 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
Polot wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
The real solution would be to cap the number of planes and passengers to maintain the islands at or below that critical number.

I doubt Hawaii has any legal standing to implement something like that. You are talking about restricting interstate travel/commerce.


Tourism fees charged through airline tickets, car rentals, and hotels/vacation rentals. Include a way for people who can prove residency in Hawaii to be exempt from them. Find the right amount of taxation to keep tourists coming, but not too many.

Could also make every Hawaii airport an IATA level 3 slot controlled airport, but that's also equally improbable.

lightsaber wrote:
I don't doubt Hawaii will tax tourists. But too much kills other jobs (hotel construction, tourist related work). If prices go too high, Honeymooners shift to Fiji or a cruise. Vacation travel is a perfectly elastic market if you put in a cost for time.

bob75013 wrote:

And yet WN just announced even more inter island service.

You think it would do that if the exiting service wasn't, at a minimum, meeting expectations?

WN will have decent estimates of costs and know the startup yield. I fully expect them to expand service. I also expect some variation. For example fly in, stay overnight, hop to another island and then fly mainland. Another flight did the same thing. Other flights provide a direct return.

Once the MAX is back in service, expect flights from LAS, PHX, and DEN to the islands. WN has a customer base. The ratio of flights to the islands to inter island flights will eventually tell us how accepting/profitable that inter island service is.

Lightsaber


MAX isn't coming back in service anytime soon, not holding my breath until well into 2020. WN also has something else coming to them if they wanna go all-MAX in Hawaii kind of like AC, with customer fears (albeit overblown by mainstream and social media).

DEN is at the edge of MAX 8 range unless WN plans on dedicating a good chunk of the MAX 7 fleet to Hawaii runs.

As I've said in other WN & Hawaii threads, the local reaction to WN is a mixed bag. Competition is welcome, but skepticism about long term viability is the elephant in the room - can interisland traffic support HA and WN? Locals who fly HA on a regular basis aren't gonna defect, with loyalty to the local airline, more frequencies. There's a mentality of "WN is good when flying in the mainland, but I'm gonna stick with HA". Furthermore, I believe that if its crunch time economically and WN needs to shrink its network - Hawaii interisland is one of the first victims.

All indications are the MAX is to be back in service in July.

DEN is at the edge of MAX range. Flights will be like earlier (pre-scimitar winglet) 738 flights by AS (restricted winter loads). I have no doubt it will be done, it is a question of when.

I 100% agree with the preference for frequency. That gives HA a huge advantage in a downturn. But so far, from people I talk to, the service is well received. I have no idea on profitability. Personally, I think a steady state will be arrived at where HA still dominates inter-island flying.

But that doesn't mean WN won't grow. Expecting a customer to fail usually results in lost market share.

The MAX will be forgotten in two years. I doubt the will initially go all MAX. But eventually one rationally allocates resources. That means putting aircraft with on the routes they are better for. In the winter, the MAX is needed for full loads. By winter, customers will be comfortable again.

If not, I'll book the discounted flights!

I would agree MAX related press will slow the launches.

HA bought a 3600nm A321NEO for DEN to Hawaii service. The better than expected fuel burn and range is a bonus. I see no limitation, other than leaving a few winter pax behind, for the 3600nm MAX flying the route.

Lightsaber
You know nothing John Snow.
 
Bazooka
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 4:45 pm

Antarius wrote:
727200 wrote:
How would this idiot know anything? It just started. As anyone with more than 3 brain cells knows. You cant make a statement like that unless you are trying to raise the stock price.


Considering the quote about doing extremely well came from Gary Kelly, one would hope/suspect Kelly knows something.


Yeah! You'd think!
 
Bazooka
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 4:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
At this point, unless the planes are going around half empty, Gary Kelly is going to say they are doing great. HI is a long term commitment play by WN. They are not expecting to make money for probably 3 years. And that's a huge problem for HA. Keep in mind, these intra-island routes are not exactly flowing in with money. The yields are not great. HA probably did well enough on them with baggage fees and cargo revenues. With WN coming in taking some of that cargo revenues and capturing some tourists that like the no baggage fees, it's going to significantly cut into HA's revenue on these routes. I don't see how you can add 25% or more capacity on any market and not hurt the yield even if a lot of that are filled with connection traffic from the mainland.

HA is getting a reprieve due to the MAX grounding, but I can see Q3 and Q4 being really bad for them.


WN's inter-island flights are FULL! Locals are tired of HA's price gouging!
 
Bazooka
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 4:50 pm

DenverTed wrote:
Probably wait until the screaming deals are over to pass too much judgement.


It doesn't matter! The Hawaii residents have a CHOICE! Thanks WN!
 
DenverTed
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 4:57 pm

Bazooka wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
Probably wait until the screaming deals are over to pass too much judgement.


It doesn't matter! The Hawaii residents have a CHOICE! Thanks WN!


Yes, I appreciated the low fares when they started Denver, and I believe the extra competition has held down fares for me ever since.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 5:12 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
Still skeptical about the long term viability of WN in Hawaii interisland. Their capacity at HNL is extremely limited and HA will have something to say about any WN expansion. Stuff like opening up a line to a small market like ITO is plain idiotic.

Frankly Hawaii is a saturated market. There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


What percentage of Hawaii’s economy comes from tourism?
 
airzona11
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 5:32 pm

Max Q wrote:
It still remains to be seen how well their engines hold up on these very short routes

Even if they rotate the aircraft through long and short hauls it could be an expensive exercise


WN has short segments in their system today, WN is the largest user of 737s in the world so they have the most amount of available data, I doubt there is much question in operational metrics or performance. If they were competing with the 717s, different story, but these 738s are only making 1 or 2 short hops with extended time windows.
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 5:49 pm

Max Q wrote:
It still remains to be seen how well their engines hold up on these very short routes

Even if they rotate the aircraft through long and short hauls it could be an expensive exercise



They know how it will perform. Again, as you alluded to, they won't be flying them back and forth all day. By rotating them thru the system, it's no different than 100 other routes WN serves that are less than an hour and then rotated within the whole system.

The engines will be fine.
Whatever
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Thu May 23, 2019 6:14 pm

So near as I can tell, Hawaiian's margins are good, but not all that high. Since 2014 they appear to have been below 10% profits more quarters than not.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Justapax
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 4:20 am

lightsaber wrote:

But that doesn't mean WN won't grow. Expecting a customer to fail usually results in lost market share.
Lightsaber



Lightsaber: Did you mean expecting a competitor to fail...?
 
Max Q
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 4:38 am

Well you don’t get any more South and West than Hawaii and stay in America


Their name seems inspired now
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 8:17 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
While I am not a fan of Motley, this seems like an informative story.


Eh, the point still seems to be to pump the tires of two airlines they own stock in.
 
tomaheath
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 9:22 am

barney captain wrote:
I've lost count of the number of "thank you's" from the locals while doing the interisland flying - and not just from the passengers - from people on the street.

I always look forward for a comment from you when it comes to Southwest Airlines.
 
77H
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 1:33 pm

BeachBoy wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:
There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


I live in Hawaii.
This is not true at all.


It’s not “the locals” per se but there have been proposals put forth by members of county and state government that aim to limit tourism by increasing taxes. Said another way, the aim of such a proposal is to get more money out of fewer visitors. Think of it like an airline limiting capacity to increase yield.

There was an article just the other day detailing that visitor spending has been flat for almost a decade despite record visitor numbers each year and one proposal to boost spending or revenue was to increase taxes on visitors themselves and the industry. So beachboy is not incorrect in this sense.

77H
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 2:10 pm

I'm guessing, but tourism and defense are the outside forces bringing in money to the Hawaiian economy. Retirees and rich folks' second homes are another source. Non tourist services including education and medical care are the big employers in many communities. While tourism is very unlikely to be subsidized, but rather is an important source of income for workers and from the taxes tourists pay. Farming has pretty well been given up, according to friends in that sector. Any 'think like an economist' able and willing to fill in or correct some of these guesses.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
superjeff
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 4:10 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:
Still skeptical about the long term viability of WN in Hawaii interisland. Their capacity at HNL is extremely limited and HA will have something to say about any WN expansion. Stuff like opening up a line to a small market like ITO is plain idiotic.

Frankly Hawaii is a saturated market. There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


What percentage of Hawaii’s economy comes from tourism?


Can't quote a percentage but it is pretty significant. Government is a lesser percentage than years ago, and Hawaii is of significantly less importance as a stopover/refueling location on international flights. Tourism is, I think, by far the largest component into Hawaii's economy, especially if you consider the indirect support (services) component.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 4:46 pm

77H wrote:
BeachBoy wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:
There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


I live in Hawaii.
This is not true at all.


It’s not “the locals” per se but there have been proposals put forth by members of county and state government that aim to limit tourism by increasing taxes. Said another way, the aim of such a proposal is to get more money out of fewer visitors. Think of it like an airline limiting capacity to increase yield.

There was an article just the other day detailing that visitor spending has been flat for almost a decade despite record visitor numbers each year and one proposal to boost spending or revenue was to increase taxes on visitors themselves and the industry. So beachboy is not incorrect in this sense.

77H


Will politicians EVER learn that you can’t increase revenue simply by raising taxes? You reduce the very activity you’re trying to get revenue from. When you tax people more, they do less of the higher tax activity.
 
tomaheath
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 4:47 pm

Just curious but why wouldn’t a state push for more tourism?
 
Aceskywalker
Posts: 25
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 5:01 pm

tomaheath wrote:
Just curious but why wouldn’t a state push for more tourism?


When the amount of tourism starts to do more harm than good.
Environmentally, tourism has done a number on Hawaii.
One can also argue about the over-reliance on tourism the state has, and how its gonna hurt when the economy has another downturn and vacationing is one of the first expenses people eliminate.
 
Redbellyguppy
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 5:10 pm

I was out there doing inter island flying recently and we were full on several flights and mostly full on others. The gate utilization will depend on how many overwater flights are leaving at one time. Overwater departures need the plane to sit there for at least an hour and soaks up turns we otherwise could be doing.
 
77H
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 10:32 pm

AirFiero wrote:
77H wrote:
BeachBoy wrote:

I live in Hawaii.
This is not true at all.


It’s not “the locals” per se but there have been proposals put forth by members of county and state government that aim to limit tourism by increasing taxes. Said another way, the aim of such a proposal is to get more money out of fewer visitors. Think of it like an airline limiting capacity to increase yield.

There was an article just the other day detailing that visitor spending has been flat for almost a decade despite record visitor numbers each year and one proposal to boost spending or revenue was to increase taxes on visitors themselves and the industry. So beachboy is not incorrect in this sense.

77H


Will politicians EVER learn that you can’t increase revenue simply by raising taxes? You reduce the very activity you’re trying to get revenue from. When you tax people more, they do less of the higher tax activity.


No. Especially here. It is their solution for everything. They just want more of our money to squander.

77H
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Fri May 24, 2019 11:26 pm

superjeff wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:
Still skeptical about the long term viability of WN in Hawaii interisland. Their capacity at HNL is extremely limited and HA will have something to say about any WN expansion. Stuff like opening up a line to a small market like ITO is plain idiotic.

Frankly Hawaii is a saturated market. There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


What percentage of Hawaii’s economy comes from tourism?


Can't quote a percentage but it is pretty significant. Government is a lesser percentage than years ago, and Hawaii is of significantly less importance as a stopover/refueling location on international flights. Tourism is, I think, by far the largest component into Hawaii's economy, especially if you consider the indirect support (services) component.

Looks like government is larger than tourism:
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.hi.htm

Lightsaber
You know nothing John Snow.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Sat May 25, 2019 2:11 am

77H wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
77H wrote:

It’s not “the locals” per se but there have been proposals put forth by members of county and state government that aim to limit tourism by increasing taxes. Said another way, the aim of such a proposal is to get more money out of fewer visitors. Think of it like an airline limiting capacity to increase yield.

There was an article just the other day detailing that visitor spending has been flat for almost a decade despite record visitor numbers each year and one proposal to boost spending or revenue was to increase taxes on visitors themselves and the industry. So beachboy is not incorrect in this sense.

77H


Will politicians EVER learn that you can’t increase revenue simply by raising taxes? You reduce the very activity you’re trying to get revenue from. When you tax people more, they do less of the higher tax activity.


No. Especially here. It is their solution for everything. They just want more of our money to squander.

77H


And they will discover the failure of ever increasing taxes.
 
superjeff
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Sat May 25, 2019 2:16 am

lightsaber wrote:
superjeff wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

What percentage of Hawaii’s economy comes from tourism?


Can't quote a percentage but it is pretty significant. Government is a lesser percentage than years ago, and Hawaii is of significantly less importance as a stopover/refueling location on international flights. Tourism is, I think, by far the largest component into Hawaii's economy, especially if you consider the indirect support (services) component.

Looks like government is larger than tourism:
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.hi.htm


Still lesser a percentage than years ago. When I was a kid growing up in Honolulu, the government sector was way bigger than tourism, driven largely by the military and U.S. Civil service. Not quite so much now, and a lot more tourism dependent. For example, when I left to go to college on the mainland in 1966, United had three DC8's a day to LAX, another three to SFO, and Pan Am had a similar number of 707's. Pan Am and Northwest each had another 707 (in NW's case a 720B) from Portland and Seattle. Compare that to today (not even considering the fact that back then, many of the Pan Am flights went on to Asia and the South Pacific, along with Qantas (707-138B), Air New Zealand (DC8), Philippine (DC8), Japan Airlines (DC8), and Canadian Pacific (DC8). Other than those, Hawaiian and Aloha had their interisland DC9's and 737's, respectively.
 
Flyawa
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Sat May 25, 2019 2:53 am

A random fare-check HNL-OGG roundtrip 18-25JUN shows WN as low as $57.60 and HA at $57.59, a 1 cent advantage, although interisland bag fee is $25 for the 1st bag.
Better than most, not as good as some.
 
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usxguy
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Sat May 25, 2019 3:02 am

Honolulu County is looking at adding some significant taxes this year, not to hurt tourists, but to pay for their (failing) HART - light rail project. Its superbly overbudget and delayed.

One of the taxes is in fact a bed-tax.
xx
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Sat May 25, 2019 5:43 am

lightsaber wrote:
All indications are the MAX is to be back in service in July.

DEN is at the edge of MAX range. Flights will be like earlier (pre-scimitar winglet) 738 flights by AS (restricted winter loads). I have no doubt it will be done, it is a question of when.

I 100% agree with the preference for frequency. That gives HA a huge advantage in a downturn. But so far, from people I talk to, the service is well received. I have no idea on profitability. Personally, I think a steady state will be arrived at where HA still dominates inter-island flying.

But that doesn't mean WN won't grow. Expecting a customer to fail usually results in lost market share.

The MAX will be forgotten in two years. I doubt the will initially go all MAX. But eventually one rationally allocates resources. That means putting aircraft with on the routes they are better for. In the winter, the MAX is needed for full loads. By winter, customers will be comfortable again.


I'm curious as to what you're basing your opening sentence on. From what I saw on the one of the Dallas-area news stations earlier this week, each 3M8/3M9 will need at least 150 hours of maintenance for software upgrades, fluid/engine checks, etc. once the FAA approves Boeing's solution.
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