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Babyshark
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:24 pm

Without going back through all these pages I have to agree. The 380 is a success. I mean it killed the 748 orders and begot technology for the 350 and won plenty of orders even if it wasnt the 1000 promised.

Its ugly but you still like to watch it go.
 
Bricktop
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:57 pm

IslandRob wrote:
acinvestigator wrote:
What was this CEO under the influence of to make such a laughable comment?


In a related story, White Star Line CEO calls maiden voyage of Titanic a 'success', noting, "We got the passengers most of the way to New York." -ir

Back in the Reagan Star Wars era, there was a quote from a USAF General who commented on one of the tests. Always made me laugh.

"The test went absolutely perfectly until something went wrong."
 
Strato2
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:21 pm

Polot wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Boeing developed the 748 first and foremost as a passenger aircraft to answer the A380. It was shopped to customers and launched as such. The design and budgets also reflected this. This idea that it was intended for cargo and the passenger version was a "cheap" extension has only been spun - not uncoincidentally - *after* it turned out to be used mostly as a cargo aircraft.


First flight
747-8F: February 8, 2010
747-8I: March 20, 2011

Introduction
747-8F: October 12, 2011, with Cargolux
747-8I: June 1, 2012, with Lufthansa

Of course one can argue that the I would have a longer gestation. But even back then, we all would have predicted that the Freighter version would have a longer production live than the I.

bt

Also a bit weird to suggest the “design” and “budget” reflects this. The passenger 748 was originally going to be a different (shorter) length than the cargo 748F, with more range, before it was changed to be the same length as the 748F. Makes one start to wonder about Boeing’s thoughts about pax sales and production commonality with the Freighter...

Initial exploratory studies may have been led by the passenger version and how to compete with the A380, but by program launch it is pretty clear that the freighter would be taking a huge portion of the sales. LH (the first pax airline customer) didn’t even order the 748 until a year after launch.


Like said before revisionist history.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:15 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
Do you even hear yourself? Did you read my post carefully?


My post started out as all Boeing models ended up making money contributing to the bonuses that benefited the communities that offered the tax break. Most of Airbus models are doing the same thing for their communities except for the A380. The words just did not express my logic.

Thai
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747megatop
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:11 pm

Babyshark wrote:
Without going back through all these pages I have to agree. The 380 is a success. I mean it killed the 748 orders and begot technology for the 350 and won plenty of orders even if it wasnt the 1000 promised.

Its ugly but you still like to watch it go.

Pls ignore my previous post. There was a typo and i could not edit it.
1) Really speaking; efficient long haul widebody twin jets combined (B787,B777,A330 and A350) killed both the A380 and B747-8.
2) Now coming to just between 747-8 and A 380; the 747-8 still found some traction as a freighter (not a spectacular success but still the oddball orders keep coming in and most importantly they haven't pulled the plug on the 747-8)
3) Last but not the least; the A380 is definitely a success compared to the dismal & embarrasing failure that the 737-MAX has been. At least it (the A380) has not killed people because of a defective airplane. I was very critical of the A380 here on a.net; but that was before the MAX fiasco. Since then, A380 has moved to no. 4 on my list as a critic...with no. 1 being FAA (for having slept through the certification process) no. 2 being Boeing (for having let this slip through the design, development, QA and certification cycle) and no. 3 being MAX (a faulty product in consumers hands because of 1 & 2).
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:32 am

Vladex wrote:

Passenger growth is there and there is a demand for something good and there is nothing like A380 out there. It was the wrong airlines that got it and most established airlines didn't because of the short term financial ideology.


How long is long enough for Airbus and their customers to lose money on this?
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:40 am

bikerthai wrote:
Well, if you flip it around and see how Boeing messed up with the 787. One could say Boeing's lessons learned with the 787 would cost almost as much if not more than the A380 from a pure dollar standpoint. However, in the long run because they guessed right, the impact is not as glaring.


Apples and oranges.
The 787 is a commercial success in spite of the delays. I have no doubt that it will be much much more of a financial success than the A380.
It has 1,441 orders so far and 829 deliveries. Many more to come.
The A380 will have 251 deliveries when all is said and done.
 
Qf648
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:08 am

The A380 was a success.









If the measure is the trolling airbus did of a.net with it.
 
trex8
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:57 pm

If Airbus managed to steal 250 744/747X/748 sales from Boeing, stopped them launching the 747X and any other iteration before the 748. It was a success for Airbus.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:25 pm

trex8 wrote:
If Airbus managed to steal 250 744/747X/748 sales from Boeing, stopped them launching the 747X and any other iteration before the 748. It was a success for Airbus.

This is what's known as a pyrrhic victory.
 
B737Captain1980
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:45 pm

trex8 wrote:
If Airbus managed to steal 250 744/747X/748 sales from Boeing, stopped them launching the 747X and any other iteration before the 748. It was a success for Airbus.

Since the days my father started flying for EK in 1987, Airbus was mulling over the A3XX. Back then, the company was still playing catch up to Boeing. There was a big chip on the Europeans shoulders to prove they could beat Boeing and the Americans. There was no doubt AIrbus/Europeans had the smarts to build it, the question was if there was a case for it. There definitely was not a case for it in the 1990's when it was on the drawing board. To be quite honest, theres still no case for it. Boeing won the super jumbo contest not because they were smarter than the other guys, but simply because they came to market first. If Airbus would have came out with the A380 in the 60's or 70's, the picture would be completely different. I have type ratings in both the 737 and 320. The airbus product from a pilots perspective is liked more than the 737 because of the cockpits roominess, the tray table, jumpseaters get a comfy seat(try sitting in a 737 jumpseat from SNA-ATL and let me know how your legs feel when you stand up), and overall comfort. From a technical standpoint, both airplanes compete equally. At the end of the day, the bean counters don't care about pilot comfort, they care about profits and passenger experience, as they should and are required to do as part of their job.

If success is defined as "did the aircraft make money for Airbus" which is what the purpose of a corporation is, then they failed. If they are defining success as "we proved we could build a super jumbo too" they failed again because everyone in the world knew they could already do it, the business case for it was weak, but they built it anyway. Pride and Ego. As an aviation enthusiast and a 11 year old kid in DXB in 1991, I would salivate any time I saw an article being written about the A3XX. I'm happy it was built because it promotes aviation. I'm fascinated every time I see dozens of A380's lined up at DXB in pictures.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:46 pm

trex8 wrote:
If Airbus managed to steal 250 744/747X/748 sales from Boeing, stopped them launching the 747X and any other iteration before the 748. It was a success for Airbus.

Yet Airbus kicked off the big twin era with A300 and A330 and then watched Boeing sell ~1600 777s because Airbus thought A340 and A380 were the right approach.
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PW100
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:19 pm

I think FlightGlobal described it best:
FlightGlobal wrote:

Airbus will enter this year’s aeronautical salon at Le Bourget for the first time with the A380 representing a part of its history rather than a part of its future.

. . . the aircraft [A380] has been a symbol of the airframer’s struggle to prove itself a true match for US manufacturer Boeing.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airbus-looks-deep-into-long-haul-future-457918/


Especially the last part is so true. When Airbus started thinking about the A380, and even when they launched it, Airbus was not seen as a manufacturer with a complete line; they needed something above the A330/340 combo. While a commercial disaster, the A380 did establish Airbus a true competitor. The fact that they can absorb the commercial fiasco underlines such.
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AC77X
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
trex8 wrote:
If Airbus managed to steal 250 744/747X/748 sales from Boeing, stopped them launching the 747X and any other iteration before the 748. It was a success for Airbus.

Yet Airbus kicked off the big twin era with A300 and A330 and then watched Boeing sell ~1600 777s because Airbus thought A340 and A380 were the right approach.

Well they have the 350 now so I guess its ok now. Well, the 351 isn't beating the 77W or 9 so I guess its not actually completely ok. But the 359 is doing well so it is actually ok.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:21 am

PW100 wrote:
When Airbus started thinking about the A380, and even when they launched it, Airbus was not seen as a manufacturer with a complete line; they needed something above the A330/340 combo. While a commercial disaster, the A380 did establish Airbus a true competitor. The fact that they can absorb the commercial fiasco underlines such.

So they needed a commercial disaster to establish themselves as a true competitor?
Wouldn't a commercial success have been a better way to go? Something like the A350XWB?

The fact that they can absorb the commercial fiasco underlines such.

Not having to pay back the launch aid helps a lot with absorbing.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:10 am

9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:
When Airbus started thinking about the A380, and even when they launched it, Airbus was not seen as a manufacturer with a complete line; they needed something above the A330/340 combo. While a commercial disaster, the A380 did establish Airbus a true competitor. The fact that they can absorb the commercial fiasco underlines such.

So they needed a commercial disaster to establish themselves as a true competitor?
Wouldn't a commercial success have been a better way to go? Something like the A350XWB?

The fact that they can absorb the commercial fiasco underlines such.

Not having to pay back the launch aid helps a lot with absorbing.
Did you read my earlier post? I recommend it highly. Really. Because I am guessing that (based on what I have read from you in this thread at least) you do not have an understanding of Airbus launch aid (both how it has historically worked out and how it applies to the A380). Give it a try...facts are a beautiful thing.

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk
 
aaexecplat
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:48 pm

9Patch wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
Well, if you flip it around and see how Boeing messed up with the 787. One could say Boeing's lessons learned with the 787 would cost almost as much if not more than the A380 from a pure dollar standpoint. However, in the long run because they guessed right, the impact is not as glaring.


Apples and oranges.
The 787 is a commercial success in spite of the delays. I have no doubt that it will be much much more of a financial success than the A380.
It has 1,441 orders so far and 829 deliveries. Many more to come.
The A380 will have 251 deliveries when all is said and done.


And let's address your 787 claim with some sunlight, as well...yes, the 787 will not lose nearly as much money as the A380. As I have written earlier, the A380 will have lost Airbus at least $25 billion, maybe closer to $30 billion (of which launch aid represents a remaining total of roughly $2.7 billion).

The 787 program has now an accounting block of 1400 frames which they have effectively sold at this point. In mid-2016, Boeing topped out at a deferred balance of almost $29 billion on the program and had delivered 400+ frames at a loss. Since then, they have begun to make a profit on each delivered frame. As of last year, they were making a $24 million profit on each frame and the deferred balance was down to $27.7 billion with 670 airplanes delivered.

Let's be generous and say they can up the profit to $30 million per frame (an almost absurd 25% efficiency increase), they would still have a $6.7 billion deferred balance (and I am assuming for this math exercise that every frame since Q118 has already been delivered at a $30 mill profit which we know is false). If you take that remaining $6.7 billion and divide it by $30 mill, you would get about 223. That means for the program to break even, they would have to sell and deliver a total of 1623 frames.

Mind you...if there is an economic slow down or if deliveries slow, it would likely decrease per frame profits either via lower sales price or higher unit production costs.

So is if possible that Boeing will eventually break even? I suspect the answer is yes. But it is difficult for me to see how the 787 will ever be a huge money maker unless Airbus goes out of business or withdraws from the widebody market entirely.

To recap. 787 will be far from being the financial stinker that the A380 was, but it is by no means a huge success yet, nor is it guaranteed to be a huge success financially down the road.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:08 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
But it is difficult for me to see how the 787 will ever be a huge money maker

Thanks for the back of the envelope estimates comparing the 787 and A380 losses. It does prove the point that if you bet right but screw up the execution, you still have a chance to make it up.

The 787 will have the benefit of 2000 frames that will need product support (and perhaps cargo conversion). Where as the A380 will drop down to practically zilch once Emirates finish with their frames.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:38 pm

The A380 will live on.
Even the Airbus CEO, the CCO just don't know it yet, but it will, because advances in technology over the coming years will drastically change the economics of flight.

There will be major tweaks, which will serve well to test out technology for the next generation of narrowbodies, but it will live on, mark my words.

Aircraft are about to become very complex machines.
Within 5 years, aircraft are going to start to undergo major changes in design philosophy.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:23 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
And let's address your 787 claim with some sunlight, as well...yes, the 787 will not lose nearly as much money as the A380.

Yes lets address it with sunlight instead of straw man arguments.

So is if possible that Boeing will eventually break even? I suspect the answer is yes. But it is difficult for me to see how the 787 will ever be a huge money maker unless Airbus goes out of business or withdraws from the widebody market entirely.

To recap. 787 will be far from being the financial stinker that the A380 was, but it is by no means a huge success yet, nor is it guaranteed to be a huge success financially down the road.

I never said the 787 would be a huge money maker for Boeing, or a huge success financially.
I said it will be much much more of a financial success than the A380.
Avery low bar indeed.

I'm certain they will deliver more than the 1623 frames you project they need to break even.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:19 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
Did you read my earlier post? I recommend it highly. Really. Because I am guessing that (based on what I have read from you in this thread at least) you do not have an understanding of Airbus launch aid (both how it has historically worked out and how it applies to the A380). Give it a try...facts are a beautiful thing.

Yes, I went back an reread your earlier post.
Pro tip: When referencing an earlier post either link to it or provide the post number.

Post #344 is long on speculation and short on facts, and peppered with phrases like "as far as I can tell," "it stands to reason," "what I don't know...but my assumption is..." "we don't have exact numbers for this," "it's fair to assume."

That's always the problem in these launch aid discussions--the lack of transparency on the part of Airbus and their funding governments. Trying to figure out what's really going on is like reading tea leaves.

Before we can have an honest discussion about launch aid we need to know the following:

What was the amount of launch aid for the A300 family? How much of it was paid back? Was there a royalty paid for each plane sold? How much is it? Is Airbus paying interest on the borrowed money? How much?

Same questions for the A320, A330, A340, A350, and A380 programs? How much did each government provide? Were the payback terms the same for each country?

While nobody likes losing $2.7 billion in loan repayments, the loss is tiny in comparison to their GDP as a whole and individually and will not even be close to impacting their future budget discussions.

Irrelevant. While $2.7 billion is a small amount n comparison to their GDP, it a huge benefit to Airbus not to have to pay it back.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:11 pm

Maybe Airbus European Math is a little different than American Boeing Math in terms of economic success

I will consult our most renowned US government and economics millennial for the answer.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. One can only laugh at the pure comedy of really bad spin sometimes, and this Airbus spin is some of the very most laughable best.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Vladex
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:47 pm

9Patch wrote:
Vladex wrote:

Passenger growth is there and there is a demand for something good and there is nothing like A380 out there. It was the wrong airlines that got it and most established airlines didn't because of the short term financial ideology.


How long is long enough for Airbus and their customers to lose money on this?


Emirates and Singapore are making money and they are the biggest operators . Airlines are long term business so losing money is a fact of life if there is anything close to free market and losing money sometimes is a good thing, the only issue is not to have unrecoverable and drastic losses like many failed airlines or dead end types like 737 max which are all made for short term profit at the expense of long term longevity.
 
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PW100
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:04 pm

9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:
When Airbus started thinking about the A380, and even when they launched it, Airbus was not seen as a manufacturer with a complete line; they needed something above the A330/340 combo. While a commercial disaster, the A380 did establish Airbus a true competitor.

So they needed a commercial disaster to establish themselves as a true competitor?
Wouldn't a commercial success have been a better way to go? Something like the A350XWB?

Of course a commercial success would have been (much) better.; where did I wrote the opposite?? Why are you reclaiming on something that was not claimed in the first place?
I wonder if you read what I wrote. In any case, your words suggest you did not understand it.
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PW100
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:08 pm

aaexecplat wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Apples and oranges.
The 787 is a commercial success in spite of the delays. I have no doubt that it will be much much more of a financial success than the A380.
It has 1,441 orders so far and 829 deliveries. Many more to come.
The A380 will have 251 deliveries when all is said and done.


And let's address your 787 claim with some sunlight, as well...yes, the 787 will not lose nearly as much money as the A380. As I have written earlier, the A380 will have lost Airbus at least $25 billion, maybe closer to $30 billion (of which launch aid represents a remaining total of roughly $2.7 billion).

The 787 program has now an accounting block of 1400 frames which they have effectively sold at this point. In mid-2016, Boeing topped out at a deferred balance of almost $29 billion on the program and had delivered 400+ frames at a loss. Since then, they have begun to make a profit on each delivered frame. As of last year, they were making a $24 million profit on each frame and the deferred balance was down to $27.7 billion with 670 airplanes delivered.
. . . .


Not to mention that the (supposedly) $25 billion Airbus lost on the A380 includes development cost.
The 787 deferred production cost calculation did not include development cost.
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enzo011
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:36 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Maybe Airbus European Math is a little different than American Boeing Math in terms of economic success

I will consult our most renowned US government and economics millennial for the answer.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. One can only laugh at the pure comedy of really bad spin sometimes, and this Airbus spin is some of the very most laughable best.



Maybe reading comprehension is different where you are. The CEO said it is a success for the company as the lessons learned on the program helped them make decisions that made the company better able to successfully launch the A350. That is the A350 which has not had the massive delays of the A380 and it didn't have problems after launch that caused the 787 such headaches. I will happily eat humble pie and apologize profusely if you can show me quotes where the CEO of Airbus called the A380 a financial success.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:33 pm

bikerthai wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
But it is difficult for me to see how the 787 will ever be a huge money maker

Thanks for the back of the envelope estimates comparing the 787 and A380 losses. It does prove the point that if you bet right but screw up the execution, you still have a chance to make it up.

The 787 will have the benefit of 2000 frames that will need product support (and perhaps cargo conversion). Where as the A380 will drop down to practically zilch once Emirates finish with their frames.

bt


No doubt, the 787 will be the one living longer and needing support longer, which will all play into greater financial success.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:09 am

9Patch wrote:
Yes, I went back an reread your earlier post.
Pro tip: When referencing an earlier post either link to it or provide the post number.

Post #344 is long on speculation and short on facts, and peppered with phrases like "as far as I can tell," "it stands to reason," "what I don't know...but my assumption is..." "we don't have exact numbers for this," "it's fair to assume."

That's always the problem in these launch aid discussions--the lack of transparency on the part of Airbus and their funding governments. Trying to figure out what's really going on is like reading tea leaves.

Before we can have an honest discussion about launch aid we need to know the following:

What was the amount of launch aid for the A300 family? How much of it was paid back? Was there a royalty paid for each plane sold? How much is it? Is Airbus paying interest on the borrowed money? How much?

Same questions for the A320, A330, A340, A350, and A380 programs? How much did each government provide? Were the payback terms the same for each country?


First of all...all those leap of faith comments are NOT related to the facts. The facts I posted are exactly that. I used either Airbus or Boeing numbers, or numbers from credible media sources. I could go crazy and post all the links here, but I doubt it would change your mind either way and if you had intellectual curiosity about the topic, it would take you no time to find the numbers I provided yourself. Where I DID use disclaimers is to calculate certain losses, profits and balances. Because THERE IS ZERO comprehensive analysis out there for that. As far as launch aid is concerned, I provided you the answers to several of your questions (A320 + A330/340+ A345/346 + A380 launch aid). The only types I omitted are the A300 and A350. There simply isn't any documentation about the A300 I can find, but if you want to reach back to the type that started it all, you should allow for the same on Boeing (which started up by securing military and air mail contracts). Government subsidies in this space is how ANY company is founded.

As to your question about whether Airbus is paying interest on the RLI, the answer is yes. Easy to verify yourself by doing some Google searches. Exactly how much, nobody knows. That said...can you seriously tell me how much interest Boeing pays to each and every creditor? And you know all the payback and amortization schedules? I already know the answer...what Boeing reports in their financials is how much debt they have and what it costs them to service said debt. Airbus reports exactly the same. But no financial report comes with all the detail on that for a company of that size. And how about the borrowing terms and goverment launch aid Boeing's foreign suppliers are getting? You know that in its entirety, as well? And you are OK with it even if that benefit is passed through to Boeing?

Since RLI is negotiated country by country and has been going on since the 70s (well before the EU), I personally doubt that each country gets the same deal, offers the same interest rate or anything like that.

Irrelevant. While $2.7 billion is a small amount n comparison to their GDP, it a huge benefit to Airbus not to have to pay it back.
Lol. I was focusing on the song and dance people were making about how the poor EU taxpayer is getting stiffed. And in that context, the comparison made obvious sense.

But if you'd like to focus on how $2.7 billion in non-repayment would impact Airbus, consider that Airbus had $72+ billion in revenue in 2018 (based on today's exchange rate) and made a $6.5 billion profit. SO even if they repaid this amount in full, they would have made a $3 billion profit in 2018. The bigger question is WHY SHOULD they pay it back? The whole point of RLI is to keep paying the investors WELL PAST the point of recouping principal + interest. That is exactly what they have been doing on the A320/A330/A340 (and soon on the A350). Why should the investors have their cake and it, too? I actually think that this has worked out great for EU countries so far and any spat along those lines could kill off a golden goose for them. And maybe that is what needs to happen for everyone's benefit.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:12 am

PW100 wrote:
Not to mention that the (supposedly) $25 billion Airbus lost on the A380 includes development cost.
The 787 deferred production cost calculation did not include development cost.


Are you sure about that? What I found indicated that there was a total of $32 billion in development and deferrals which was down to $28.5 billion by mid-2016. Are you saying there is an extra several billion that are not yet accounted for in the numbers I am presenting?
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:22 am

PW100 wrote:
Not to mention that the (supposedly) $25 billion Airbus lost on the A380 includes development cost.
The 787 deferred production cost calculation did not include development cost.

Of course the A380 had deferred costs too. All aircraft programs do.
Airbus wrote them off all at once. But that doesn't mean they never existed.
Last edited by 9Patch on Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:48 am

aaexecplat wrote:
I could go crazy and post all the links here, but I doubt it would change your mind either way and if you had intellectual curiosity about the topic, it would take you no time to find the numbers I provided yourself.

Sorry the burden of proof is on you. Don't expect me to do your research for you.

As far as launch aid is concerned, I provided you the answers to several of your questions (A320 + A330/340+ A345/346 + A380 launch aid).

You provided very little beyond speculation.


As to your question about whether Airbus is paying interest on the RLI, the answer is yes. Easy to verify yourself by doing some Google searches.

It would be easier for you to post links to what you found, rather than me trying to guess what you found in Google search results. There are millions of hits. How am I supposed to figure out which ones you're talking about?

That said...can you seriously tell me how much interest Boeing pays to each and every creditor? And you know all the payback and amortization schedules? I already know the answer...what Boeing reports in their financials is how much debt they have and what it costs them to service said debt. Airbus reports exactly the same. But no financial report comes with all the detail on that for a company of that size. And how about the borrowing terms and goverment launch aid Boeing's foreign suppliers are getting? You know that in its entirety, as well? And you are OK with it even if that benefit is passed through to Boeing?

When all else fails, resort to 'whataboutism.' If you want to discuss this start a new topic about it. I'm sure it will be a lively discussion.

Since RLI is negotiated country by country and has been going on since the 70s (well before the EU), I personally doubt that each country gets the same deal, offers the same interest rate or anything like that.

Again, speculation. In the absence of information how can we come to any meaningful conclusions?

But if you'd like to focus on how $2.7 billion in non-repayment would impact Airbus, consider that Airbus had $72+ billion in revenue in 2018 (based on today's exchange rate) and made a $6.5 billion profit. SO even if they repaid this amount in full, they would have made a $3 billion profit in 2018.

Which begs the question, why do they need launch aid in the first place?
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:15 am

PW100 wrote:
Of course a commercial success would have been (much) better.; where did I wrote the opposite?? Why are you reclaiming on something that was not claimed in the first place?
I wonder if you read what I wrote. In any case, your words suggest you did not understand it.

They were already a 'true competitor,' apparently they didn't know it.
They had too much money (launch aid) burning a hole in their pocket. This led them to make foolish bets.
The A380 hurt Airbus.
It was NOT something they needed.
Last edited by 9Patch on Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:33 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:20 am

Vladex wrote:
Airlines are long term business so losing money is a fact of life if there is anything close to free market and losing money sometimes is a good thing, the only issue is not to have unrecoverable and drastic losses like many failed airlines or dead end types like 737 max which are all made for short term profit at the expense of long term longevity.

There are plenty of 737Max threads for you to post comments like this in. Otherwise, it's just deflection.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:23 am

enzo011 wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Maybe Airbus European Math is a little different than American Boeing Math in terms of economic success

I will consult our most renowned US government and economics millennial for the answer.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. One can only laugh at the pure comedy of really bad spin sometimes, and this Airbus spin is some of the very most laughable best.



Maybe reading comprehension is different where you are. The CEO said it is a success for the company as the lessons learned on the program helped them make decisions that made the company better able to successfully launch the A350. That is the A350 which has not had the massive delays of the A380 and it didn't have problems after launch that caused the 787 such headaches. I will happily eat humble pie and apologize profusely if you can show me quotes where the CEO of Airbus called the A380 a financial success.


It’s Airbus spin and historical legacy revisionism of the A380 dude.
You must not like people from Africa cause I am in Africa.
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musman9853
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:39 am

aaexecplat wrote:
9Patch wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
Well, if you flip it around and see how Boeing messed up with the 787. One could say Boeing's lessons learned with the 787 would cost almost as much if not more than the A380 from a pure dollar standpoint. However, in the long run because they guessed right, the impact is not as glaring.


Apples and oranges.
The 787 is a commercial success in spite of the delays. I have no doubt that it will be much much more of a financial success than the A380.
It has 1,441 orders so far and 829 deliveries. Many more to come.
The A380 will have 251 deliveries when all is said and done.


And let's address your 787 claim with some sunlight, as well...yes, the 787 will not lose nearly as much money as the A380. As I have written earlier, the A380 will have lost Airbus at least $25 billion, maybe closer to $30 billion (of which launch aid represents a remaining total of roughly $2.7 billion).

The 787 program has now an accounting block of 1400 frames which they have effectively sold at this point. In mid-2016, Boeing topped out at a deferred balance of almost $29 billion on the program and had delivered 400+ frames at a loss. Since then, they have begun to make a profit on each delivered frame. As of last year, they were making a $24 million profit on each frame and the deferred balance was down to $27.7 billion with 670 airplanes delivered.

Let's be generous and say they can up the profit to $30 million per frame (an almost absurd 25% efficiency increase), they would still have a $6.7 billion deferred balance (and I am assuming for this math exercise that every frame since Q118 has already been delivered at a $30 mill profit which we know is false). If you take that remaining $6.7 billion and divide it by $30 mill, you would get about 223. That means for the program to break even, they would have to sell and deliver a total of 1623 frames.

Mind you...if there is an economic slow down or if deliveries slow, it would likely decrease per frame profits either via lower sales price or higher unit production costs.

So is if possible that Boeing will eventually break even? I suspect the answer is yes. But it is difficult for me to see how the 787 will ever be a huge money maker unless Airbus goes out of business or withdraws from the widebody market entirely.

To recap. 787 will be far from being the financial stinker that the A380 was, but it is by no means a huge success yet, nor is it guaranteed to be a huge success financially down the road.


thing is the 787 is only partly through the first half of its life cycle. boeing will almost certainly cell another 300 to 400 787s by the time ultrafan is ready. and a 787neo will almost undoubtedly sell several hundred units, probably more like a thousand. will the 787 be a massive financial success? probably not, but boeing will likely make a healthy profit on the program, in stark contrast to airbus losing like 20B
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:48 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The A380 will live on.
Even the Airbus CEO, the CCO just don't know it yet, but it will, because advances in technology over the coming years will drastically change the economics of flight.

There will be major tweaks, which will serve well to test out technology for the next generation of narrowbodies, but it will live on, mark my words.


If your claim is that the A380 will continue in production, and have major tweaks ... that's just daft. Please tell me your claim was anything else.
 
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enzo011
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:40 am

KlimaBXsst wrote:
It’s Airbus spin and historical legacy revisionism of the A380 dude.
You must not like people from Africa cause I am in Africa.



It is Airbus spin, but they have not said what you claim they are misrepresenting here, nor what the majority of discussion here is. You could have fired a shot by saying that Europeans could do better by focusing on making financial successes instead of moral victories. :spin:

We all come from Africa if you trace our ancestors far back enough, so if I don't like people from Africa then I don't like anybody. :scratchchin:
 
Armadillo1
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:52 am

B737Captain1980 wrote:
the question was if there was a case for it. There definitely was not a case for it in the 1990's when it was on the drawing board. To be quite honest, theres still no case for it.


even without 911?
 
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:52 am

kitplane01 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
The A380 will live on.
Even the Airbus CEO, the CCO just don't know it yet, but it will, because advances in technology over the coming years will drastically change the economics of flight.

There will be major tweaks, which will serve well to test out technology for the next generation of narrowbodies, but it will live on, mark my words.


If your claim is that the A380 will continue in production, and have major tweaks ... that's just daft. Please tell me your claim was anything else.


As said in previous pages, I see the A380 make a revival with a 2025 launch, 2028 EIS.

The only thing that I will claim is that the A380 will come back a very different beast.
If you want to know more, we can exchange business cards next week.
 
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:04 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
The A380 will live on.
Even the Airbus CEO, the CCO just don't know it yet, but it will, because advances in technology over the coming years will drastically change the economics of flight.

There will be major tweaks, which will serve well to test out technology for the next generation of narrowbodies, but it will live on, mark my words.


If your claim is that the A380 will continue in production, and have major tweaks ... that's just daft. Please tell me your claim was anything else.


As said in previous pages, I see the A380 make a revival with a 2025 launch, 2028 EIS.

The only thing that I will claim is that the A380 will come back a very different beast.
If you want to know more, we can exchange business cards next week.

I guess the key question in that respect is if Airbus and all their suppliers will destroy the tooling. Will they?
 
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:08 pm

9Patch wrote:
I never said the 787 would be a huge money maker for Boeing, or a huge success financially.
I said it will be much much more of a financial success than the A380.
Avery low bar indeed.

Funny thing is some who are slagging the 787 are the same ones desperately trying to give the A380 a pass by saying it provided tech for A350.

Guess where the 777x wing and upgraded system tech came from?

You got it, 787.

Guess where much of the NMA tech will be coming from?

You got it, 787.

Yet we don't see people making excuses for the 787.

Its execution was terrible both in terms of schedule and budget.

Yet we do see excuses being made for A380.

Maybe to try to hide the fact that its terrible execution resulted in a dead end aircraft?
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:06 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

If your claim is that the A380 will continue in production, and have major tweaks ... that's just daft. Please tell me your claim was anything else.


As said in previous pages, I see the A380 make a revival with a 2025 launch, 2028 EIS.

The only thing that I will claim is that the A380 will come back a very different beast.
If you want to know more, we can exchange business cards next week.

I guess the key question in that respect is if Airbus and all their suppliers will destroy the tooling. Will they?


I think that they are intending to really destroy everything right now.

The A380 has endless possibilities in my view and not only as commercial aircraft.
 
aaexecplat
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:02 pm

9Patch wrote:
Sorry the burden of proof is on you. Don't expect me to do your research for you.


Info about A380 RLI and repayments: https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a380-loan-dispute/ AND https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taxp ... -xvjnjb93p

Info about A320 program: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-447206/

Info about A320 for UK portion of RLI: https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... neindustry

Info about RLI and repayments since 1992: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2 ... 146485.pdf (see the last paragraph on page 3)

Info about A345/346 RLI: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 600-32624/

Info about RLI in general: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/ ... a8d0afcea1

WTO provides details of EU member state RLI agreements (Page 67): https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/di ... abrw_e.pdf

WTO provides details about each RLI agreement for A350 (starting page 95): https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/di ... abrw_e.pdf

Airbus provided (redacted in the report) data to WTO on RLI beginning and repayment year for each Airbus program (page 316): https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/di ... abrw_e.pdf

9Patch wrote:
You provided very little beyond speculation.


See links above for substantiation. I continue to stress that my post was based on publicly available information.

9Patch wrote:
When all else fails, resort to 'whataboutism.' If you want to discuss this start a new topic about it. I'm sure it will be a lively discussion.


Nah. "Not all has failed" yet, and in some cases, it is important to look at the general landscape to make an assessment whether certain expectations are reasonable. Your idea of every tiny little detail of every agreement needing to be transparent isn't a reasonable expectation when the competitors in this industry do not provide similar transparency. That isn't whataboutism.

9Patch wrote:
Again, speculation. In the absence of information, how can we come to any meaningful conclusions?


Proof provided for you in the WTO doc starting on page 95. Turns out that my "speculation" was somehow on the money.

9Patch wrote:
Which begs the question, why do they need launch aid in the first place?


That is an EXCELLENT question. Before I will share why I believe Airbus does what they do, I can tell you how I would handle RLI in an IDEAL WORLD if I were Airbus CEO...I would scrap RLI for good. I would then carbon copy Boeing in every respect and beat Boeing at its own game. Secure grants for "research" in the military division, seek massive government tax breaks from every country I operate in and outsource several manufacturing processes abroad to countries that are happy to violate WTO rules (like Japan). MInd you...I think all of those practices are just as shifty as RLI. But if you carbon copy, Boeing would effectively take itself to the WTO in future complaints.

Now...things are obviously not as simple as that. For one, the EU or its member States simply don't spend on defense what the US does. So these large research grants don't exist at all and would be indefensible in scope relative to the military spending overall. There is also a MUCH tougher tax burden in the EU than in the US, much tougher enforcement, and a much deeper general willingness and dependence on everyone paying into the kitty. So what goes down in the US is effectively unthinkable on a large scale in the EU countries that provide RLI. I suspect that when you combine those factors, it would leave Airbus in a situation where they would not have access to RLI, would not be able to gain similar tax breaks and grants that Boeing routinely receives, and would have only risk-sharing partners and their own cash flow as a way to support developing new technology...which would be a vast disadvantage relative to Boeing's resources ex-own cash flow.

I also think this is an interesting thought excercise to turn around...if RLI is so advantageous, why doesn't Boeing copy what Airbus is doing? I suspect the answer is somewhat similar..namely that cultural and military spending practices make it less desirable.
 
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:04 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

As said in previous pages, I see the A380 make a revival with a 2025 launch, 2028 EIS.

The only thing that I will claim is that the A380 will come back a very different beast.
If you want to know more, we can exchange business cards next week.

I guess the key question in that respect is if Airbus and all their suppliers will destroy the tooling. Will they?


I think that they are intending to really destroy everything right now.

The A380 has endless possibilities in my view and not only as commercial aircraft.


If the A380 is revived, it will have a composite fuselage and wing, so keeping all those tooling would be moot.

By the time Airbus is ready to revive the A380, Boeing will have launch the BWB which will eat everything out there for lunch. Yes, some of us can dream too :cloudnine:

bt
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aaexecplat
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:05 pm

musman9853 wrote:
thing is the 787 is only partly through the first half of its life cycle. boeing will almost certainly cell another 300 to 400 787s by the time ultrafan is ready. and a 787neo will almost undoubtedly sell several hundred units, probably more like a thousand. will the 787 be a massive financial success? probably not, but boeing will likely make a healthy profit on the program, in stark contrast to airbus losing like 20B


I don't think anyone but the most delusional forum members are going to argue with you on that point...
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:09 pm

I would love to see the Airbus 380 return.

Hopefully it would get some sort of nose job before doing so though.
Still am not sure who would buy I though.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:10 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
B737Captain1980 wrote:
the question was if there was a case for it. There definitely was not a case for it in the 1990's when it was on the drawing board. To be quite honest, theres still no case for it.


even without 911?


i mean air travel recovered to pre 9/11 numbers after a couple of years. it certainly didnt help, but i dont think its fair to say it was a major factor.
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KlimaBXsst
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:10 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
I would love to see the Airbus 380 return.

Hopefully it would get some sort of nose job before doing so though.
Still am not sure who would buy It though.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Amiga500
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:12 pm

The A380 was a disaster. There is no amount of lipstick can make that pig look good.

There is nothing Airbus could not have learned from far cheaper demo programs and proper management (CATIA v4 vs v5).


Big lesson there is - get the most efficient model you can (given where you are) to market first. Airbus artificially hamstrung themselves with the daft idea of making a shrink -800 that carried much of the weight of the -900 because they were that full of themselves that the airlines would come*.

Same for BBD and CSeries. CS300 should have been first; would have made certifying CS100 far easier and been a much stronger documentation platform to launch into CS500 from.


*if they thought they needed to go small (-800) to be able to generate load factors, how the sweet f___ did this not set alarm bells ringing all over the place?
 
deltadc9
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:14 pm

Babyshark wrote:
Without going back through all these pages I have to agree. The 380 is a success. I mean it killed the 748 orders and begot technology for the 350 and won plenty of orders even if it wasnt the 1000 promised.

Its ugly but you still like to watch it go.


Or did the 748 steal enough 380 orders to doom the 380? THINK about it.
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