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spinotter
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:48 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
I know this absolutely is not going to happen, but my one request anyway: Hang onto the A310s a little longer, and fly them on some domestic Canadian or transborder US routes so I can fly on them and get *A credit.

You can retire them the next day, and proceed business as usual from that point.


I am sure that the management of Air Transat will do exactly that, just to please you. In my mind this is just like WN buying AirTran to strangle a competitor. AC already has nearly monopoly control in Canada - I hope the relevant authorities do not allow this to happen.
 
ac7e7
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:49 pm

eta unknown wrote:
So we are now returning back to the days of Mapleflot...


Hardly. AT is a player in Canada, but nothing like the acquisition of CP.
 
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keesje
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:51 pm

I don't expect AirTransat cancelling their holidays flights tomorrow & their aircraft being pulled into a painting bay. Rouge & AirTransat can stop fighting & start cooperating, setting priorities, doing damage management. Specially with Westjet being taken over, coincidentally, the day before yesterday.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ac7e7
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:52 pm

spinotter wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
I know this absolutely is not going to happen, but my one request anyway: Hang onto the A310s a little longer, and fly them on some domestic Canadian or transborder US routes so I can fly on them and get *A credit.

You can retire them the next day, and proceed business as usual from that point.


I am sure that the management of Air Transat will do exactly that, just to please you. In my mind this is just like WN buying AirTran to strangle a competitor. AC already has nearly monopoly control in Canada - I hope the relevant authorities do not allow this to happen.


If AC was acquiring WS I would agree with you. However, AC does not have a monopoly is Canada today. I believe they have between 50-60% of the domestic market. WS has signalled it is moving to become an equal.

There is plenty of competition considering the small size of the Canadian market.
 
Salomon
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:56 pm

Can anyone provide a quick summary of how Air Canada and Canadian were merged? Timeframe, staff seniority and hurdles?
Takeoffs are optional; landings are mandatory.
 
ac7e7
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:57 pm

I don’t believe the competition bureau is going to make a fuss. I believe Onex is going to take a run at Porter in order to strengthen their eastern Canadian business market share. They will likely have to agree to eliminate Swoop, which I still believe Onex is going to do anyway.

The Canadian airline market has been stable for the pst decade. A duopoly with a couple smaller players seems to be the right balance in Canada. I don’t believe the government wants to see too many competitions causing instability in the Canadian airline industry.

The future will be:
AC, WS, Flair, and possibly Jetlines (if they ever get off the ground).
Last edited by ac7e7 on Thu May 16, 2019 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:58 pm

With YYZ getting slot controlled this is probably just a move by AC to keep competition out while picking up more slots.
 
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Polot
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:59 pm

keesje wrote:
I don't expect AirTransat cancelling their holidays flights tomorrow & their aircraft being pulled into a painting bay. Rouge & AirTransat can stop fighting & start cooperating, setting priorities, doing damage management. Specially with Westjet being taken over, coincidentally, the day before yesterday.

So you are advocating collusion?

That will quicken the process just like you want- The government will quickly nix AC’s attempt to get Air Transat.
 
IADCA
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 2:59 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
spinotter wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
I know this absolutely is not going to happen, but my one request anyway: Hang onto the A310s a little longer, and fly them on some domestic Canadian or transborder US routes so I can fly on them and get *A credit.

You can retire them the next day, and proceed business as usual from that point.


I am sure that the management of Air Transat will do exactly that, just to please you. In my mind this is just like WN buying AirTran to strangle a competitor. AC already has nearly monopoly control in Canada - I hope the relevant authorities do not allow this to happen.


If AC was acquiring WS I would agree with you. However, AC does not have a monopoly is Canada today. I believe they have between 50-60% of the domestic market. WS has signalled it is moving to become an equal.

There is plenty of competition considering the small size of the Canadian market.


In antitrust law, 50-60% is right in the range where firms are often judged to have monopoly power, and the likelihood of coordinated interaction/oligopoly is greatly heightened when there is only one other major competitor. Even though TS's domestic network is fairly small, they're likely to face a lot of issues for that simple reason. 3-to-2 mergers are very challenging to get through regulatory approval, even when it's a distant #3. WS-TS would have been much easier to get through than this deal, and even that would not be a smooth process.

ac7e7 wrote:
I don’t believe the competition bureau is going to make a fuss. I believe Onex is going to take a run at Porter in order to strengthen their eastern Canadian business market. They will likely have to agree to eliminate Swoop, which I still believe Onex is going to do anyway.


I think the Bureau will ultimately approve it, but I wouldn't expect it to be fast.
 
ac7e7
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:07 pm

IADCA wrote:
ac7e7 wrote:
spinotter wrote:

I am sure that the management of Air Transat will do exactly that, just to please you. In my mind this is just like WN buying AirTran to strangle a competitor. AC already has nearly monopoly control in Canada - I hope the relevant authorities do not allow this to happen.


If AC was acquiring WS I would agree with you. However, AC does not have a monopoly is Canada today. I believe they have between 50-60% of the domestic market. WS has signalled it is moving to become an equal.

There is plenty of competition considering the small size of the Canadian market.


In antitrust law, 50-60% is right in the range where firms are often judged to have monopoly power, and the likelihood of coordinated interaction/oligopoly is greatly heightened when there is only one other major competitor. Even though TS's domestic network is fairly small, they're likely to face a lot of issues for that simple reason. 3-to-2 mergers are very challenging to get through regulatory approval, even when it's a distant #3. WS-TS would have been much easier to get through than this deal, and even that would not be a smooth process.

ac7e7 wrote:
I don’t believe the competition bureau is going to make a fuss. I believe Onex is going to take a run at Porter in order to strengthen their eastern Canadian business market. They will likely have to agree to eliminate Swoop, which I still believe Onex is going to do anyway.


I think the Bureau will ultimately approve it, but I wouldn't expect it to be fast.


Quebec firm in trouble. Another Quebec firm with deep pockets saving most of the jobs? Trudeau looking at reelection in a few months? Yeah, I think it will get approved quickly.
 
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spinotter
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:11 pm

spinotter wrote:
ac7e7 wrote:
IADCA wrote:

In antitrust law, 50-60% is right in the range where firms are often judged to have monopoly power, and the likelihood of coordinated interaction/oligopoly is greatly heightened when there is only one other major competitor. Even though TS's domestic network is fairly small, they're likely to face a lot of issues for that simple reason. 3-to-2 mergers are very challenging to get through regulatory approval, even when it's a distant #3. WS-TS would have been much easier to get through than this deal, and even that would not be a smooth process.



I think the Bureau will ultimately approve it, but I wouldn't expect it to be fast.


Quebec firm in trouble. Another Quebec firm with deep pockets saving most of the jobs? Trudeau looking at reelection in a few months? Yeah, I think it will get approved quickly.


Is that what's underneath AC jumping on TS? Could be.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:20 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
I don’t believe the competition bureau is going to make a fuss. I believe Onex is going to take a run at Porter in order to strengthen their eastern Canadian business market share. They will likely have to agree to eliminate Swoop, which I still believe Onex is going to do anyway.

The Canadian airline market has been stable for the pst decade. A duopoly with a couple smaller players seems to be the right balance in Canada. I don’t believe the government wants to see too many competitions causing instability in the Canadian airline industry.

The future will be:
AC, WS, Flair, and possibly Jetlines (if they ever get off the ground).


I doubt Porter would even consider being acquired any time soon, even if approached by another. Bob Deluce just handed over the CEO reins to his son. If anything, all these changes might signal that Porter is ready to expand either with more Q400s and/or ready for the A220, even jets still banned at the Island.

Likewise, if TS goes away, there is no way the Competition Bureau would allow WS to acquire Sunwing, creating a near duopoly to sun destinations. Mind you, I doubt privately held Sunwing are for sale either, especially given how TUI own 49% of them.
 
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spinkid
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:23 pm

longhauler wrote:
cumulushumilis wrote:
This play is more about keeping Onex from getting their hands on AT and creating a beach head in Eastern Canada. I don’t think acquiring AT was in Onex’s plans.


That was my thought as well. This is not about wanting Air Transat, but making sure no one else (with deep pockets) gets them.

This concept has occurred a lot in the past 30 or so years in Canada.


I'm thinking the exact same thing. AC had no interest in this until the Onex deal. If Onex had bought AT and merged them with Westjet/Swoop that would be a real competitor to AC in almost every market.

Like others have said, the questions now are.

1. Will it make it through the government approval?
2. Will Rouge or Air Transat be the surviving LCC branding?
3. What will happen to all of the niche routes that Air Transat has built over the years?
4. Who will emerge to offer competition on routes that are now likely to become a monopoly?
 
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Polot
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:23 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
IADCA wrote:
ac7e7 wrote:

If AC was acquiring WS I would agree with you. However, AC does not have a monopoly is Canada today. I believe they have between 50-60% of the domestic market. WS has signalled it is moving to become an equal.

There is plenty of competition considering the small size of the Canadian market.


In antitrust law, 50-60% is right in the range where firms are often judged to have monopoly power, and the likelihood of coordinated interaction/oligopoly is greatly heightened when there is only one other major competitor. Even though TS's domestic network is fairly small, they're likely to face a lot of issues for that simple reason. 3-to-2 mergers are very challenging to get through regulatory approval, even when it's a distant #3. WS-TS would have been much easier to get through than this deal, and even that would not be a smooth process.

ac7e7 wrote:
I don’t believe the competition bureau is going to make a fuss. I believe Onex is going to take a run at Porter in order to strengthen their eastern Canadian business market. They will likely have to agree to eliminate Swoop, which I still believe Onex is going to do anyway.


I think the Bureau will ultimately approve it, but I wouldn't expect it to be fast.


Quebec firm in trouble. Another Quebec firm with deep pockets saving most of the jobs? Trudeau looking at reelection in a few months? Yeah, I think it will get approved quickly.

Is AC actually seen as Quebec “enough” though? I think the fear will be AC just guts the airline (which will cost jobs) and move the assets over to Toronto.

The fact that AC is legally based in Quebec matters little, it is all about perception.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:39 pm

Will they do away with the TS brand? Didn't see this coming, wonder if it'll be approved!?
@DadCelo
 
jimbo737
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:43 pm

The devil will be in the detail.

There is absolutely no question the Competition Bureau will look at this transaction very closely given to market dominance issues in YUL to the Sun and Canada in general to Europe.

There is very little chance they would approve the merger without a number of conditions that AC may find very difficult to swallow.

This represents a dramatic reduction of competition, and that sort of thing is a big issue, especially in an election year and especially with the house due to rise in about a months time, and not reconvening until after a fall election, and potentially a change in Gov't. There won't be time for any parliamentary committees to deal with this prior to election. Trudeau / the Libs are already in big trouble, (ask a cabbie in Montreal what he thinks of Trudeau), and slamming this one through would be close to political suicide.

Transat is in no danger of going under, which was not the case in 1999 with AC/CP.

Airline competition in Canada is a massive hot button these days. Any consolidation that results in a reduction of choice won't be looked at favorably, by voters or government.

And talk about adding another layer to the already complex, high cost operations at AC?

Stay tuned.....
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:43 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
Will they do away with the TS brand? Didn't see this coming, wonder if it'll be approved!?


Wait to hear what people in Québec will say about all that, including present provincial government. Remember what happened with Aveos and Bombardier?
 
codyul
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:47 pm

beechnut wrote:
Wow... but I had a sneaking suspicion that this would happen. The fleets should integrate well; the A330s with the existing AC 330 fleet, all RR powered, and the 321s are a natural fit as well. The 321LR are an interesting acquisition. My prediction? AC will never take up its order for the MAX 9, but will pick up more 321NEOs and LRs. What happens to Rouge is going to be interesting to watch. Its fleet of 767s is long in the tooth. All the major delays I've incurred on AC in recent years were tech delays on the Rouge 767 and AC Mainline 767 fleets. Maybe AC Rouge becomes Air Canada Transat as their LCC wing, the A330s find their way there, along with the 321 classics; the 321LR goes over to mainline and the order gets topped up at the expense of the MAX 9. Maybe a deal is worked out with Boeing to take a few more 789 options at a rock-bottom price; consolation to Boeing for canceling the MAX 9 order, and compensation to AC for the MAX 8 grounding.

Rumours of the demise of Airbus at AC have been greatly exaggerated...

Beech

Love this scenario!
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
kamloops
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:54 pm

I wonder what Canada Jetlines is thinking today?
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:55 pm

samuelx88 wrote:
Are they going to keep TS hubs and bases at YYZ, YVR, YYC and YQB or they will all connect in YUL instead for transatlantic flights? Because the official press release mentions YUL many times without mentioning other airports.

They are going to get rid of the whole thing. Maybe keep some markets in France for YUL. This is about Air Canada thinking as they always have, that Canada should have only one major airline.
 
airzona11
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:56 pm

codyul wrote:
beechnut wrote:
Wow... but I had a sneaking suspicion that this would happen. The fleets should integrate well; the A330s with the existing AC 330 fleet, all RR powered, and the 321s are a natural fit as well. The 321LR are an interesting acquisition. My prediction? AC will never take up its order for the MAX 9, but will pick up more 321NEOs and LRs. What happens to Rouge is going to be interesting to watch. Its fleet of 767s is long in the tooth. All the major delays I've incurred on AC in recent years were tech delays on the Rouge 767 and AC Mainline 767 fleets. Maybe AC Rouge becomes Air Canada Transat as their LCC wing, the A330s find their way there, along with the 321 classics; the 321LR goes over to mainline and the order gets topped up at the expense of the MAX 9. Maybe a deal is worked out with Boeing to take a few more 789 options at a rock-bottom price; consolation to Boeing for canceling the MAX 9 order, and compensation to AC for the MAX 8 grounding.

Rumours of the demise of Airbus at AC have been greatly exaggerated...

Beech

Love this scenario!


Assuming the MCAS issue is taken care of, why is the MAX 9 defacto gone? Within North America, UA/DL/AS all fly the 739s on coast to coast missions, profitably.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:58 pm

IADCA wrote:
keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
The 737Max will likely be back in the air before this deal closes and AC actually has control of Air Transat.

We are still in the exclusive talks stage- the two have not fully committed to a deal yet. Then it must pass all regulatory approvals.


If there are urgent needs, win-win, money drain & strong competition, things can move swiftly. This might be such a situation. https://www.fool.ca/2019/05/10/should-the-737-max-grounding-defer-your-air-canada-tsxac-investment/

AC Stock is bumping on this investment because they like AC taking action.


The Competition Bureau alone has a 30-day initial waiting period that doesn't start until the deal is formally notified to them (and putting together those filings takes at least 2 weeks in a complex deal and usually longer), plus what is functionally an open-ended extension period that in practice is often six months or more when there are actual competition issues (hint: this is almost certainly one of these cases). You can't close until they give you permission. Note that this deal will also generate a whole host of ancillary regulatory filings that will also slow the process down, including filings outside of Canada.

jbs2886 wrote:
keesje wrote:

If there are urgent needs, win-win, money drain & strong competition, things can move swiftly. This might be such a situation. https://www.fool.ca/2019/05/10/should-the-737-max-grounding-defer-your-air-canada-tsxac-investment/

AC Stock is bumping on this investment because they like AC taking action.


At most AC could have Air Transat operate some flights. Acquisitions don't move that swiftly, especially with regulators involved. It simply doesn't really matter if AC needs it to move fast, that's just not how it works.


Prior to Competition Bureau approval that would be an absolute no-no. Such pre-approval integration ("gun-jumping") has been a huge focus of enforcement in recent years in Canada, as well as the US and EU.


I meant in the wet lease/charter capacity, a la Omni flights AC has now for Hawaii.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 3:58 pm

If Andrew Sheer has a brain in his head, he’ll oppose this and maybe pick up some seats in PQ this fall.
 
YYZLGA
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:01 pm

It certainly makes sense from AC's perspective. The fleets are very compatible, and it will make AC overwhelmingly dominant to Europe. For Canadians--especially Montrealers--the effect will be a huge surge in prices. Canadians right now enjoy very good fares transatlantic, but that will end. On the domestic side, TS's role was marginal, but it still helped to keep prices down. When it's just an Air Canada/Westjet duopoly, we're likely to see domestic fares rise even higher. It's pretty clear that this is just a purchase to eliminate competition, rather than to expand the business. If it were Westjet buying, then at least it would be a way for them to expand their weak presence in Canada's second-largest aviation market.

For people who say that Canada is a small market that can't support competition, that's just not true. I know Canadians always insist on comparing themselves only to the United States, but Canada has one of the biggest aviation markets in the world--especially domestic. It absolutely can support--and desperately needs--real competition. There are also a lot of trips that are already left untaken because it costs $500 to go YYZ-YWG.

I do think that this will free up a substantial number of planes for the merged carrier. They'll eliminate all of TS's domestic flying, some of which is just geared to feed their overseas flights, and they'll eliminate most of the transatlantic flights that AC already serves. On those, they'll either upgauge or, in most cases, just reduce capacity and chase higher yields.
 
Canuck600
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:03 pm

The CBC article has been updated it's NOT a done deal, they are still negotiating.
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:10 pm

Canuck600 wrote:
The CBC article has been updated it's NOT a done deal, they are still negotiating.


Hence why the title has been updated from "Air Canada buy Air Transat" to "Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat"
 
Canuck600
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:11 pm

I know the title has been updated, but all the posts thus far have been treating it like it's a done deal.
 
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keesje
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:12 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
It certainly makes sense from AC's perspective. The fleets are very compatible, and it will make AC overwhelmingly dominant to Europe. For Canadians--especially Montrealers--the effect will be a huge surge in prices. Canadians right now enjoy very good fares transatlantic, but that will end. On the domestic side, TS's role was marginal, but it still helped to keep prices down. When it's just an Air Canada/Westjet duopoly, we're likely to see domestic fares rise even higher. It's pretty clear that this is just a purchase to eliminate competition, rather than to expand the business. If it were Westjet buying, then at least it would be a way for them to expand their weak presence in Canada's second-largest aviation market.

For people who say that Canada is a small market that can't support competition, that's just not true. I know Canadians always insist on comparing themselves only to the United States, but Canada has one of the biggest aviation markets in the world--especially domestic. It absolutely can support--and desperately needs--real competition. There are also a lot of trips that are already left untaken because it costs $500 to go YYZ-YWG.

I do think that this will free up a substantial number of planes for the merged carrier. They'll eliminate all of TS's domestic flying, some of which is just geared to feed their overseas flights, and they'll eliminate most of the transatlantic flights that AC already serves. On those, they'll either upgauge or, in most cases, just reduce capacity and chase higher yields.


I think competition Transatlantic will be ensured by tons of flights from European carriers into Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary. Direct and connecting. Domestically it seems Westjet with their 120 737's take a good share, ensuring some competition, or not?

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:15 pm

Canuck600 wrote:
I know the title has been updated, but all the posts thus far have been treating it like it's a done deal.


It's A.net and it's a wild week for aviation in Canada.
 
YYZLGA
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:18 pm

keesje wrote:
I think competition Transatlantic will be ensured by tons of flights from European carriers into Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary. Direct and connecting. Domestically it seems Westjet with their 120 737's take a good share, ensuring some competition, or not?

Image


The European carriers are pretty small players on most of the the Canadian transatlantic market. Of course they'll play a role, but AC and TS are by far the two biggest players. Remember also that the *A carriers are in a JV with AC so they're not actually competitors either. So, for example, Canada-Germany will be a complete monopoly non-stop.

Domestically, a duopoly isn't that much better than a monopoly. Westjet and AC pretty closely match their fares. TS was an insurgent player on some of those domestic routes, so you could get much, much cheaper fares in some cases from them.
 
fraT
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:29 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
The European carriers are pretty small players on most of the the Canadian transatlantic market. Of course they'll play a role, but AC and TS are by far the two biggest players. Remember also that the *A carriers are in a JV with AC so they're not actually competitors either. So, for example, Canada-Germany will be a complete monopoly non-stop.


Not a good example since TS hasn't flown to Germany for years.
 
ricardofg
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:32 pm

Realistically, when could we see AC takeover the routes and planes? Surely their will be a period of transition
 
IADCA
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:36 pm

keesje wrote:
YYZLGA wrote:
It certainly makes sense from AC's perspective. The fleets are very compatible, and it will make AC overwhelmingly dominant to Europe. For Canadians--especially Montrealers--the effect will be a huge surge in prices. Canadians right now enjoy very good fares transatlantic, but that will end. On the domestic side, TS's role was marginal, but it still helped to keep prices down. When it's just an Air Canada/Westjet duopoly, we're likely to see domestic fares rise even higher. It's pretty clear that this is just a purchase to eliminate competition, rather than to expand the business. If it were Westjet buying, then at least it would be a way for them to expand their weak presence in Canada's second-largest aviation market.

For people who say that Canada is a small market that can't support competition, that's just not true. I know Canadians always insist on comparing themselves only to the United States, but Canada has one of the biggest aviation markets in the world--especially domestic. It absolutely can support--and desperately needs--real competition. There are also a lot of trips that are already left untaken because it costs $500 to go YYZ-YWG.

I do think that this will free up a substantial number of planes for the merged carrier. They'll eliminate all of TS's domestic flying, some of which is just geared to feed their overseas flights, and they'll eliminate most of the transatlantic flights that AC already serves. On those, they'll either upgauge or, in most cases, just reduce capacity and chase higher yields.


I think competition Transatlantic will be ensured by tons of flights from European carriers into Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary. Direct and connecting. Domestically it seems Westjet with their 120 737's take a good share, ensuring some competition, or not?

Image


That's too high-level a view to be useful. Antitrust regulators generally focus on airport-pair route and airport-specific hub/slot/gate overlaps.
 
alan3
Posts: 289
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:40 pm

ac7e7 wrote:

The future will be:
AC, WS, Flair, and possibly Jetlines (if they ever get off the ground).


Don't forget Sunwing. They still have a pretty decent share of the winter sun market.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 4:52 pm

airzona11 wrote:
Assuming the MCAS issue is taken care of, why is the MAX 9 defacto gone? Within North America, UA/DL/AS all fly the 739s on coast to coast missions, profitably.


The MAX 9 order has already been deferred. That to me, is a telling sign that AC is not necessarily in love with them. Will they be converted to MAX 8s? 10s? Who knows, but if the Transat deal goes through, with 14 A321LRs coming in... one wonders. It just happens that there are 11 deferred MAX 9s on order. There's no doubt that such a merger would result in some consolidation, and I'd bet a beer that you'll never see MAX 9s in Air Canada colours. But you will see the 321LR.

A possible scenario: AC retires the older A32x in the Rouge fleet, and moves the MAX 8s over to Rouge (or whatever the AC LCC division will be called; my guess is that they'll keep the Transat brand alive somehow, it has good value in Quebec), and takes the 321s and 321LRs into mainline (and perhaps notches up the order). the A330s go over to the LCC side to replace the 767s; maybe retain a few in premium config for mainline. My count shows 16 332s at AT; they seat more than the 767s at Rouge and could easily replace the 25 or so Rouge 767s. Their 2 333s could go over to mainline.

An interesting question is what will happen to the winter leases at AT...

BTW La Presse is reporting that Quebec Premier François Legault, the cofounder of Air Transat, is favourable to the merger.

Beech
 
Dominion301
Posts: 1960
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 5:16 pm

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
Will they do away with the TS brand? Didn't see this coming, wonder if it'll be approved!?


Wait to hear what people in Québec will say about all that, including present provincial government. Remember what happened with Aveos and Bombardier?


Legault has already come out strongly in favour of the buyout: (link in French only): http://www.rcinet.ca/fr/2019/05/16/fusi ... au-canada/

Le premier ministre du Québec, François Legault, qui a cofondé Air Transat, accueille la nouvelle avec satisfaction pour deux raisons : les emplois vont être préservés et le siège social va demeurer au Québec.


He's quoted as say this is a win-win for two reasons: 1) jobs will be preserved and 2) the head office stays in Quebec.

Bobloblaw wrote:
If Andrew Sheer has a brain in his head, he’ll oppose this and maybe pick up some seats in PQ this fall.


He'll blow whichever way the public sentiment wind blows this fall. Given fellow provincial conservative Legault is already all in favour of it, opposing might not be a very smart idea.
 
maps4ltd
Posts: 252
Joined: Tue May 08, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 5:22 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
So will Onex SWOOP in and buy Sunwing now?


I really hope there isn't much more consolidation in the CA market. I know it's a small population (less than California), but it has ridiculously high fares as it is.
Delta Gold Medallion and Southwest A-List
 
Dominion301
Posts: 1960
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 5:22 pm

beechnut wrote:
A possible scenario: AC retires the older A32x in the Rouge fleet, and moves the MAX 8s over to Rouge (or whatever the AC LCC division will be called; my guess is that they'll keep the Transat brand alive somehow, it has good value in Quebec), and takes the 321s and 321LRs into mainline (and perhaps notches up the order). the A330s go over to the LCC side to replace the 767s; maybe retain a few in premium config for mainline. My count shows 16 332s at AT; they seat more than the 767s at Rouge and could easily replace the 25 or so Rouge 767s. Their 2 333s could go over to mainline.


Transat by Air Canada / Transat par Air Canada perhaps?
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15759
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 5:39 pm

AC is already highly dominant in the Canadian market, and AC Rouge and TS are direct competitors. The federal competition bureau should not allow this purchase to take place.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
billsalton92
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Mar 26, 2013 11:12 pm

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 5:56 pm

AC_B777 wrote:
I hope AC keeps the A321NEO order and tops them up! I can see some kind of deal with Airbus to dump the A310's and the A332's for more 321N's.


AC is on the hunt for more RR powered 330's. They'd scoop up the 333's, and possibly even dabble in the 332 market for it's extra range. 321N's have been an interest for a few years so I assume this new opportunity to not sit on a waiting list for a few years may be a very inviting advantage of the aquisition
 
Canuck600
Posts: 130
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 5:57 pm

If it goes through I wonder how it will affect the employees of the two companies? I
 
berari
Posts: 677
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 6:05 pm

I predicted this earlier this week. I didn't put my money where my mouth is however.

Can't wait to see what QC lawmakers have to say about this. There will be redundancies.

I expect AC to close down most of the Air Transat European services in favour of consolidating into AC-operated flights where overlap exists and use partnership with LH for those it won't serve.
 
Aircellist
Posts: 1504
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:43 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 6:15 pm

Just closing the (many) direct flights from YUL to French province cities would cost the new combine quite a number of sales. I know my mom and sisters, for instance, will get out of their best schedule options to use those direct flights. Granted, if there is no choice, then there is no choice, but AF would become more interesting again, with their correspondences in CDG, or even SS could mount something with someone in ORY.
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
LightChop2Chop
Posts: 71
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:33 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 6:16 pm

the 321Neos are perfect for some of Rouge's sun markets that need some range and/or some capacity. Can the 321Neo make it YYZ-LIM/UIO without penalties?
 
yulexpansion
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:08 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 6:27 pm

LightChop2Chop wrote:
the 321Neos are perfect for some of Rouge's sun markets that need some range and/or some capacity. Can the 321Neo make it YYZ-LIM/UIO without penalties?


No way the 21N can takeoff from UIO without penalty to YYZ with a 199 seat configuration.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 488
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 7:31 pm

I remember how messy was the pilot seniority list integration when AC bought Canadian. Particularly since Canadian's pilots tended to have considerable seniority (Canadian airlines having suffered slow/negative growth in its last few years)

Would that be legally possible to keep Transat AT as an independent subsidiary - in order to avoid the pilot seniority list integration?

But yes, integrate AC Vacations into Transat AT leisure unit.

Also coordinate flights to optimize domestic feed, avoid international redundancies and maximize global reach. (BTW, Air Transat is a well more recognised brand in many parts of France / some parts of Europe, we may want to still ride on it.)

Also Air Transat average CASMs must be pretty close to those of AC Rouge anyways, so keeping it separate would still result in gaining additional lift at a relatively low CASM.
 
berari
Posts: 677
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 10:25 pm

Good point. AC could integrate Air Canada Vacations into Air Transat if it is also keep the travel agency components of the purchase and rebrand it. Transat is quite solid in the leisure space, so we could see AC, AC Vacations and AC Rouge at play.

What are the AC Rouge pilot contracts and restrictions? Transat could be merged into that instead of AC mainline.

What this means to the traveling public, it should be noted, is that we will have one less player in the leisure market, a dominant player at that.
 
YULACYYZ
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:00 pm

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 10:36 pm

spinkid wrote:
longhauler wrote:
cumulushumilis wrote:
This play is more about keeping Onex from getting their hands on AT and creating a beach head in Eastern Canada. I don’t think acquiring AT was in Onex’s plans.


That was my thought as well. This is not about wanting Air Transat, but making sure no one else (with deep pockets) gets them.

This concept has occurred a lot in the past 30 or so years in Canada.


I'm thinking the exact same thing. AC had no interest in this until the Onex deal. If Onex had bought AT and merged them with Westjet/Swoop that would be a real competitor to AC in almost every market.

Like others have said, the questions now are.

1. Will it make it through the government approval?
2. Will Rouge or Air Transat be the surviving LCC branding?
3. What will happen to all of the niche routes that Air Transat has built over the years?
4. Who will emerge to offer competition on routes that are now likely to become a monopoly?


No interest? How do you know? Air Transat was for sale before the Onex deal was announced.
 
YULACYYZ
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:00 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 10:44 pm

AC must have done their homework. If Transat walks away for a bigger deal, they owe AC 15 million. Likewise Ac would have to pay them 40 million should the deal ends for regulatory issues.
 
santi319
Posts: 764
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 11:03 pm

Its a natural fit. Watch Rouge grow now.
Rouge was the best thing AC could’ve come up with. They literally killed their competition. Whoever did that at AC deserves a raise.

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