FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

*4B IAH-VCT JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0] NOV 0>2[0] JAN 0>0.3[2]

7H ANC-FAI JUL 1.7>2[3] AUG 1.7>2[2]

7Q EWR-VRB SEP 0.1>0.3[0.3] NOV 0>0.3[0.6] DEC 0>0.3[0.7]
*7Q HPN-SRQ NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]

I assume the tourism market is dead, is this just business travel? Or subsidized?
*AA ACA-DFW JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
AA ANU-MIA AUG 1.4>1.0[1.0]
AA BOI-DFW AUG 1.6>2[1.6] DEC 2>1.6[1.3]
AA BWI-PHL JUL 3>4[3]
*AA CAE-MIA DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA CHO-ORD SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[2] DEC 2>3[2] JAN 2>3[2] FEB 2>3[2]
AA CHS-MIA AUG 4>5[3]
AA CLT-CMI AUG 1.6>2[0]
*AA CRW-ORD SEP 0>0.9[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA CUN-PHL NOV 1.8>1.3[1.2]
AA CUN-PHX AUG 1.3>1.0[1.5] DEC 1.1>0.6[1.5]
*AA CUU-PHX DEC 0>0.5[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA CYS-DFW SEP 1.1>2.0[0] OCT 1.0>2[0] NOV 1.0>2[0.9] DEC 1.0>2[1.0] JAN 1.0>2[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0]
AA DCA-PBI AUG 1.4>1.0[1.0]
AA DCA-RSW AUG 0.6>1.0[0.6]
*AA DFW-HUX JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]
AA DFW-IAD JUL 4>3[4]
AA DFW-JAC FEB 1.7>1.1[1.7]
AA DFW-LIR DEC 0.5>1.0[0.5] JAN 0.6>0.8[0.6] FEB 0.8>1.4[0.8]
AA DFW-MEI SEP 0.6>1.0[0.5] OCT 0.5>1.0[0.5] NOV 0.5>1.0[0.5] DEC 0.5>1.0[0.5] JAN 0.5>1.0[0.5] FEB 0.5>1.0[0.5]
AA DFW-OAK JUL 1.0>0.2[1.9]
AA DFW-PIB SEP 0.6>1.8[0.5] OCT 0.5>1.9[0.5] NOV 0.5>1.8[0.5] DEC 0.5>1.9[0.5] JAN 0.5>1.9[0.5] FEB 0.5>1.8[0.5]
*AA DFW-SGU OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA DFW-SJO DEC 1.1>1.5[1.1] JAN 1.0>2[1.0] FEB 1.1>2[1.1]
AA EVV-ORD SEP 3>2[3] OCT 3>2[3] NOV 3>2[3] DEC 3>2[3] JAN 3>2[2] FEB 3>2[1.8]
AA GIG-MIA DEC 1.5>1.0[1.4] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.5]
AA HAV-MIA JUL 5>6[4] AUG 5>6[4]
AA JAC-LAX JAN 1.0>0.7[0.2] FEB 1.0>0.8[0]
AA JAC-ORD JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
AA JFK-YUL AUG 1.4>1.0[2]
AA LAX-MSY AUG 0.9>0.5[1.0]
AA LAX-SFO AUG 9>8[11]
*AA MEI-PIB SEP 1.5>0.1[1.5] OCT 1.5>0[1.5] NOV 1.5>0[1.5] DEC 1.5>0[1.5] JAN 1.5>0[1.5] FEB 1.5>0[1.5]
*AA MIA-OKC DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA MIA-SAP NOV 1.3>1.0[1.9]
AA MIA-SEA AUG 1.4>1.0[1.6]
AA MIA-TGU NOV 1.3>1.0[1.8]
*AA MIA-XNA DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA OAK-PHX AUG 4>3[4]
AA ORD-RAP AUG 2>1.6[1.1]
AA PHL-PNS AUG 1.6>2[1.0]
AA PHL-SCE AUG 5>4[4]
AA PHL-SXM AUG 0.9>0.6[0]
*AA PHX-RAP SEP 0>0.9[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA PHX-SGU OCT 2>3[3] NOV 2>3[3] DEC 2>3[3] JAN 2>3[3] FEB 2>3[3]

AC LAX-YUL AUG 4>3[4]

AD FLL-VCP SEP 1.1>1.4[1.0]

AM BJX-LAX DEC 0.9>1.3[0.7]
AM DEN-MEX DEC 1.2>1.5[1.2] JAN 0.9>1.6[1.0] FEB 0.7>1.2[0.7]
AM DTW-GDL JUN 0.2>0[0] JUL 0.4>0.2[0]
AM DTW-SLP JUN 0.2>0[0] JUL 0.5>0.3[0]
AM FAT-GDL DEC 0.9>1.3[0.9] JAN 0.8>1.0[0.8]
AM GDL-SJC DEC 0>0.6[0.9] JAN 0>0.4[0.2]
AM GDL-SMF DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0] JAN 1.0>1.3[1.0]
AM MEX-MIA DEC 2>3[3] JAN 2>3[2]
AM MEX-SAT DEC 1.0>1.5[1.0]
AM MEX-SEA JUN 1.5>1.0[1.0] JUL 2>1.0[1.0] AUG 2>1.0[1.0] DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0]

AN ABQ-SVC JAN 0.5>0.6[2] FEB 0>0.3[2]
AN HHR-SQL JUN 0>0.2[0]
AN PHX-SVC JAN 0.2>0.4[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
AN SBA-SQL JUN 0>0.2[0]

AS ANC-FAI SEP 7>6[7] OCT 7>6[7]
AS ANC-JNU OCT 3>4[3]
AS ANC-SCC SEP 1.4>2[1.3] OCT 1.4>3[1.4]
More former VX routes see cuts.
*AS BOS-LAX SEP 1.9>1.0[2] OCT 1.8>1.0[1.8]
AS JNU-SEA OCT 3>4[3]
AS MSP-SEA SEP 2>3[2]
AS PDX-SEA SEP 19>20[22] OCT 19>20[22]
AS PDX-SFO SEP 7>8[7] OCT 7>8[7]
These 2 were routes added by the former head of planning. I think we are starting to see changes from the new org structure.
**AS PVR-SNA AUG 0.5>0.1[0.4] SEP 0.4>0[0.4] OCT 0.5>0[0.4] NOV 0.4>0[0.4] DEC 0.4>0[0.4] JAN 0.4>0[0.5] FEB 0.4>0[0.4]
AS SEA-STS OCT 1.0>2.0[1.0]
**AS SJD-SNA AUG 0.5>0.1[0.6] SEP 0.6>0[0.6] OCT 0.5>0[0.6] NOV 0.6>0[0.6] DEC 0.6>0[0.6] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0.6]

AV GUA-MIA JUN 1.0>0.8[0.3]
AV MIA-SAP SEP 1.0>0.7[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.8[1.0]

B6 ACK-HPN SEP 0.1>0.7[0]
B6 BDL-PBI SEP 1.0>1.4[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.4[1.0]
B6 BOS-PDX SEP 0.2>1.1[0.8] OCT 0>0.8[0.3]
B6 BOS-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

BA LHR-PHL DEC 1.4>1.7[1.0]

This seems interesting. I haven't looked at the type, but PVD increasing for Winter is odd with the MAX situation.
*D8 DUB-PVD NOV 0>0.6[1.0] DEC 0>0.6[1.0] JAN 0>0.6[0.8] FEB 0>0.6[0.8]
*D8 DUB-SWF OCT 1.1>1.3[2] NOV 0>1.3[2] DEC 0>1.3[1.9] JAN 0>1.3[1.4] FEB 0>1.3[1.0]

DL ATL-MHT DEC 1.0>0.0[0.9]
DL ATL-RNO DEC 0.6>0.4[0.3]
DL BNA-JFK DEC 2>2.0[1.9]
DL BOS-FLL JAN 1.3>2[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0]
DL BOS-MCO JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3]
**DL BOS-MIA DEC 0>0.7[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0]
DL BOS-MSY FEB 0>0.2[0]
DL BOS-PBI DEC 0.3>0.7[0.4] JAN 1.0>2[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0]
I said "added", but from weekends to daily is big.
*DL BOS-PUJ JAN 0.2>1.0[0.2] FEB 0.2>1.0[0.1]
DL BOS-RSW DEC 0.4>0.7[0.3] JAN 1.0>2[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0]
**DL BOS-SRQ DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.2[0]
DL BUF-MSP DEC 0.9>0.0[0.9]
DL BZN-LAX DEC 1.0>0.7[0.6]
DL CHO-LGA DEC 2>1.6[0.7]
DL CUN-DTW NOV 1.9>1.1[0.7]
DL CVG-IAH NOV 1.4>0.8[1.1]
DL FCA-LAX DEC 0.6>0.4[0.3]
DL JAX-MSP JAN 0.1>0.6[0.1]
DL JFK-PWM DEC 2>1.6[1.6]
**DL LAX-OMA NOV 0>0.6[0] DEC 0>0.8[0] JAN 0>0.8[0] FEB 0>0.8[0]
*DL MSP-SYR DEC 0.6>0.0[0.6]
DL MSP-TYS DEC 0.9>0.6[1.0]
DL ORD-RDU DEC 3>1.7[0]
DL PHL-SLC DEC 1.3>1.0[0.8]
BOS adds, SEA loses
*DL PSP-SEA NOV 0.9>0[0.8] DEC 1.3>0.6[1.0]
*DL SEA-TUS NOV 0.9>0[0.8] DEC 1.0>0.4[0.8]

I don't even look at the G4 changes. Have at it.
G4 ABE-BNA NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 ABE-PGD NOV 0.2>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.5[0.3]
G4 ABE-PIE NOV 0.2>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.5[0.4]
G4 ABE-SFB NOV 0.5>1.2[1.1] DEC 0>1.4[1.1] JAN 0>1.5[1.0] FEB 0>0.6[1.4]
G4 ABQ-AUS DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 ALB-PGD NOV 0.2>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.3[0.2] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 ALB-PIE JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 ALB-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 ATW-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 AUS-CVG NOV 0>0.2[0.3] DEC 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 AUS-LAS NOV 0.2>0.6[0.6] DEC 0>0.5[0.6] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 AUS-MEM OCT 0.3>0[0]
G4 AUS-PIT OCT 0.3>0[0]
G4 AVL-DEN NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.2[0]
G4 AVL-FLL NOV 0.8>2.0[2.0] DEC 0>1.9[2] JAN 0>1.9[2] FEB 0>0.7[2]
G4 AVL-PIE NOV 0.6>1.5[0.9] DEC 0>1.5[0.9] JAN 0>1.6[0.8] FEB 0>0.6[0.9]
G4 AVL-SFB NOV 0.7>1.7[1.0] DEC 0>1.6[1.0] JAN 0>1.6[1.0] FEB 0>0.6[0.9]
G4 AVL-SRQ NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 AZA-BIL NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.6[0.3] JAN 0>0.5[0.4]
G4 AZA-BIS NOV 0.2>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.7[0.6] JAN 0>0.7[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
G4 AZA-CID NOV 0.2>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.8]
G4 AZA-FAR NOV 0.2>0.6[0.6] DEC 0>0.8[0.6] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>0.4[1.2]
G4 AZA-FCA NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 AZA-FSD NOV 0.2>0.5[0.6] DEC 0>0.8[0.6] JAN 0>0.8[0.9] FEB 0>0.3[1.1]
G4 AZA-GFK JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 AZA-GJT NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 AZA-GRR NOV 0.2>0.6[0.4] DEC 0>0.8[0.5] JAN 0>0.7[0.5] FEB 0>0.3[0.5]
G4 AZA-OMA DEC 0>0.2[0.3]
G4 AZA-PIA NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 AZA-PVU NOV 0.6>1.5[1.2] DEC 0>1.5[1.0] JAN 0>1.6[0.9] FEB 0>0.6[1.2]
G4 BIS-LAS NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.7[0.6] JAN 0>0.4[0.3] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
G4 BLI-LAS NOV 0.9>2[1.9] DEC 0>2[1.7] FEB 0>0.5[1.9]
G4 BLI-LAX NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 BLI-OAK NOV 0.2>0.5[0.6] DEC 0>0.5[0.6] JAN 0>0.3[0.5]
G4 BLI-PSP NOV 0.2>0.6[0.5] JAN 0>0.3[0.5]
G4 BLV-PGD NOV 0.2>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 BLV-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 BMI-SFB JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 BNA-GRR NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 BNA-MDT NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 BNA-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 BNA-SRQ DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 BNA-SYR NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 BWI-SRQ DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 CHS-PIT NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 CID-PGD JAN 0>0.4[0.3] FEB 0>0.2[0.4]
G4 CID-PIE NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.5[0.3]
G4 CID-SFB NOV 0.2>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.5[0.4]
G4 CLE-SAV NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.1]
G4 CLE-SRQ NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 CVG-DEN SEP 0.3>0.0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
G4 CVG-FLL NOV 0.3>0.9[1.0] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
G4 CVG-LAX SEP 0.6>0.3[0.6] OCT 0.5>0.3[0.5] DEC 0>0.5[0.6] JAN 0>0.4[0.5]
G4 CVG-PGD NOV 0.4>1.0[1.0] FEB 0>0.3[1.1]
G4 CVG-PIE NOV 0.3>0.9[0.9] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
G4 CVG-SFB NOV 0.4>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>0.3[1.0]
G4 CVG-VPS NOV 0.3>0.8[0.5] DEC 0>0.6[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 DSM-LAS NOV 0.2>0.6[0.6] DEC 0>0.6[0.7] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 DSM-PGD DEC 0>0.5[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.5]
G4 DSM-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.5]
G4 ELM-SFB NOV 0.1>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.6[0.5] JAN 0>0.5[0.4]
G4 EUG-OAK NOV 0.2>0.5[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 EWR-SAV JAN 0>0.3[0.1]
G4 EWR-TYS NOV 0.3>0.6[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.1]
G4 EWR-VPS NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 FAR-LAS NOV 0.2>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.6] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.8]
G4 FAT-LAS NOV 0.7>1.7[1.6] DEC 0>1.7[1.5] JAN 0>1.7[1.4] FEB 0>0.6[1.5]
G4 FLL-LEX NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.5]
G4 FLL-PBG NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.5]
G4 FLL-TYS NOV 0.3>0.8[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.7]
G4 FLL-USA NOV 0.4>1.2[0.8] DEC 0>1.5[0.9] JAN 0>1.5[0.7] FEB 0>0.5[0.9]
G4 FNT-PGD NOV 0.2>0.5[0.6] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
G4 FNT-PIE NOV 0.2>0.5[0.8] DEC 0>0.6[0.8] JAN 0>0.5[0.7] FEB 0>0.2[0.7]
G4 FNT-SFB NOV 0.1>0.4[0.8] DEC 0>0.6[0.8] JAN 0>0.5[0.7] FEB 0>0.2[0.9]
G4 FSD-LAS NOV 0.2>0.4[0.5] JAN 0>0.6[0.4] FEB 0>0.2[0.5]
G4 FWA-PGD NOV 0.2>0.6[0.5] DEC 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
G4 FWA-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 GRR-LAS NOV 0.2>0.6[0.6] JAN 0>0.6[0.4] FEB 0>0.2[0.4]
G4 GRR-PGD NOV 0.2>0.7[0.4] DEC 0>0.8[0.5] JAN 0>0.7[0.5] FEB 0>0.3[0.6]
G4 GRR-PIE NOV 0.3>1.1[0.8] JAN 0>1.3[1.2] FEB 0>0.5[1.3]
G4 GRR-SAV DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 GRR-SFB NOV 0.4>1.2[1.0] DEC 0>1.2[0.9] JAN 0>1.2[0.7] FEB 0>0.4[1.3]
G4 GRR-SRQ DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 HGR-SFB NOV 0.1>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 HTS-SFB NOV 0.2>0.6[0.5] DEC 0>0.7[0.5] JAN 0>0.5[0.4]
G4 IAG-PGD NOV 0.2>0.6[0.5] DEC 0>0.6[0.5] JAN 0>0.5[0.4] FEB 0>0.2[0.7]
G4 IAG-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.3[0.2]
G4 IND-JAX NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 IND-PGD NOV 0.3>0.8[0.8] DEC 0>0.9[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
G4 IND-PIE NOV 0.4>0.9[0.9] FEB 0>0.3[0.8]
G4 IND-SRQ DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 JAX-ORF DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 JAX-PIT DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 LAS-MEM NOV 0.2>0.6[0.6] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 LAS-MFE NOV 0.4>1.0[0.8] DEC 0>1.0[0.7] JAN 0>1.0[0.6] FEB 0>0.3[0.7]
G4 LAS-MOT NOV 0.2>0.5[0.3] DEC 0>0.6[0.4] JAN 0>0.5[0.3]
G4 LAS-OAK NOV 0.4>0.9[0.9] DEC 0>0.9[0.7] JAN 0>0.9[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.8]
G4 LAS-RNO NOV 0.4>1.1[0.9] DEC 0>1.0[0.7] JAN 0>1.0[0.8] FEB 0>0.4[0.9]
G4 LAS-SCK NOV 0.7>1.6[1.6] DEC 0>1.7[1.5] JAN 0>1.7[1.4] FEB 0>0.6[1.5]
G4 LAS-SDF OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
G4 LAS-SMX NOV 0.2>0.6[0.6] DEC 0>0.5[0.6] JAN 0>0.6[0.5] FEB 0>0.2[0.5]
G4 LAX-SGF NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 LCK-PGD NOV 0.2>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.5[0.4]
G4 LCK-SAV DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 LCK-SRQ NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 LEX-PGD NOV 0.1>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.6[0.5] JAN 0>0.5[0.6] FEB 0>0.2[0.5]
G4 LEX-PIE NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 LEX-SFB NOV 0.2>0.6[0.6] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
G4 MDT-PGD NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 MDT-PIE NOV 0.2>0.5[0.4] DEC 0>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 MDT-SFB NOV 0.3>0.9[0.6] DEC 0>0.9[0.7] FEB 0>0.3[0.9]
G4 MDT-SRQ NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 MKE-PIE OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
G4 MSY-PIT OCT 0.3>0[0]
G4 MSY-SDF NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 PBG-PIE NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 PGD-PIA NOV 0.2>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.5[0.4] FEB 0>0.2[0.6]
G4 PGD-PIT NOV 0.2>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 PGD-RDU JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 PGD-RFD NOV 0.2>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 PGD-SBN NOV 0.2>0.6[0.5] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.3] FEB 0>0.2[0.5]
G4 PGD-SPI NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3] FEB 0>0.2[0.4]
G4 PGD-TOL NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 PGD-TYS NOV 0.2>0.4[0.5] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 PIA-PIE NOV 0.2>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.3] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 PIE-SGF NOV 0.2>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 PIE-TYS NOV 0.4>1.0[0.8] JAN 0>0.7[0.5] FEB 0>0.3[0.6]
G4 PIE-USA NOV 0.4>1.0[0.8] FEB 0>0.3[0.7]
G4 PIT-SAV DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 PIT-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.2]
G4 PSM-SAV NOV 0.1>0.3[0]
G4 PVD-SAV NOV 0.1>0.3[0]
G4 RDU-SFB OCT 0.3>0[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 RIC-SFB NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 RIC-SRQ NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 SDF-VPS DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 SFB-SGF NOV 0.1>0.4[0.4] JAN 0>0.4[0.3]
G4 SFB-SYR NOV 0.1>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.4[0.5] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 SFB-TYS NOV 0.5>1.3[1.0] DEC 0>1.2[0.9] JAN 0>1.2[0.9] FEB 0>0.4[1.2]
G4 SFB-USA NOV 0.3>0.8[0.6] DEC 0>0.8[0.4] JAN 0>0.7[0.3] FEB 0>0.3[0.6]
G4 SFB-XNA NOV 0.1>0.4[0.4] DEC 0>0.5[0.4] JAN 0>0.3[0.4]
G4 SGF-VPS DEC 0>0.3[0]
G4 SRQ-SYR NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0]
G4 TYS-VPS NOV 0.1>0.3[0]
G4 USA-VPS NOV 0.1>0.3[0]
G4 VPS-XNA NOV 0.1>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]

GV CLP-DLG SEP 0.4>0.9[1.4] OCT 0.4>0.9[1.7] NOV 0.4>0.9[1.7] DEC 0.4>0.9[1.7] JAN 0.4>0.9[1.7] FEB 0.4>0.9[0.9]
GV CLP-KMO SEP 0.4>0.9[0] OCT 0.4>0.9[0] NOV 0.4>0.9[0] DEC 0.4>0.9[0] JAN 0.4>0.9[0] FEB 0.4>0.9[0.9]
GV DLG-KMO SEP 1.3>1.8[0] OCT 1.3>1.8[0] NOV 1.3>1.8[0] DEC 1.3>1.8[0] JAN 1.3>1.8[0] FEB 1.3>1.8[1.7]
GV DLG-KNW JUN 0>3[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0] JAN 0>3[0] FEB 0>3[0]
GV DLG-TOG JUN 1.4>1.0[1.0] JUL 1.4>1.0[1.0] AUG 1.4>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>1.0[0.9] NOV 0>1.0[0.9] DEC 0>1.0[0.8] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>1.0[0.9]
GV DLG-TWA JUN 1.4>1.0[1.0] JUL 1.4>1.0[1.0] AUG 1.4>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>1.0[0.9] NOV 0>1.0[0.9] DEC 0>1.0[0.8] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>1.0[0.9]
GV TOG-TWA JUN 1.4>1.0[1.0] JUL 1.4>1.0[1.0] AUG 1.4>1.0[1.0] OCT 0>1.0[0.9] NOV 0>1.0[0.9] DEC 0>1.0[0.8] JAN 0>1.0[0.9] FEB 0>1.0[0.9]

HA HNL-ITO NOV 15>14[14] DEC 15>14[15]

Not shocked
**HU CTU-ORD JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0]

Back out again
IG LAX-MXP JUL 0.6>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.5>0[0]

*LV LAS-ORY NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.3[0]

Appears to be gone? or just seasonal?
**OZ ICN-ORD DEC 0.7>0[0.7] JAN 0.7>0[0.7] FEB 0.7>0[0.7]

UA ABQ-LAX OCT 0.1>0.3[1.0]
UA AEX-IAH JUN 3>1.8[3]
UA BHM-IAH NOV 5>6[5]
UA BNA-SFO OCT 3>2.0[1.8]
UA CID-DEN OCT 2>3[2]
UA CNY-DEN NOV 1.7>1.0[1.8] DEC 1.7>1.3[1.7]
UA CRP-IAH JUN 6>5[5] AUG 6>5[5]
UA DEN-FSD NOV 4>5[4]
UA DEN-ISN NOV 4>3[3]
UA DEN-PSP NOV 5>4[4]
UA DEN-YVR OCT 3>2[2]
UA DEN-YYC NOV 4>3[3]
UA EWR-RSW JAN 5>4[4]
UA EYW-ORD OCT 0.9>1.2[0.3] NOV 1.0>2[0.4] DEC 1.0>1.6[1.1]
UA GPT-IAH JUN 3>2[4] NOV 3>4[3]
UA GRK-IAH JUN 3>2.0[3]
UA HRL-IAH JUN 5>4[4]
UA IAD-YYZ NOV 4>3[4]
UA IAH-ICT NOV 4>5[4]
UA IAH-JAN JUN 5>4[5]
UA IAH-LFT JUN 5>4[5]
UA IAH-MOT OCT 0.0>0.2[0.3]
UA IAH-SFO DEC 9>8[10]
UA IAH-STL NOV 5>6[5]
UA IAH-VPS OCT 3>2[3]
UA ORD-RSW NOV 2>3[2] DEC 2>3[3]
UA ORD-SAV NOV 4>3[3] DEC 4>3[3] JAN 4>3[3] FEB 4>3[3]
UA ORD-SRQ OCT 1.0>1.2[1.3]
UA ORD-TUS NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>1.6[1.0]
UA ORD-YWG NOV 3>2[3] DEC 3>2[2.0] JAN 3>2[1.9] FEB 3>2[2]
UA PDX-SFO NOV 9>8[8]
UA PHX-SFO NOV 4>5[5]
UA RDM-SFO NOV 3>4[5] DEC 3>4[5] JAN 3>4[4] FEB 3>4[4]
UA RNO-SFO NOV 5>4[5] DEC 5>4[4] JAN 5>4[5] FEB 5>4[5]
UA SAN-SFO NOV 9>8[9]
UA SFO-STL NOV 1.8>1.0[1.8] DEC 1.9>1.0[1.9] JAN 1.9>1.0[1.2] FEB 1.8>1.0[1.0]

VS LHR-MIA NOV 2>1.4[2] JAN 1.9>1.4[1.7]
VS LHR-SFO JAN 2>1.4[1.9] FEB 2>1.3[1.8]

Z3 CLP-DLG JUN 0.7>0.4[0] JUL 0.7>0.5[0] AUG 0.7>0.4[0] SEP 0.7>0.4[0] OCT 0.7>0.4[0] NOV 0.7>0.4[0] DEC 0.7>0.4[0] JAN 0.7>0.5[0] FEB 0.7>0.4[0]

Thanks enilria!

It looks like B6’s third BOS-SAN frequency will be on an A320, not on a Mint A321. No other Mint transcon market except LAS has a mix of Mint and non-Mint aircraft. Taking a look at Tphuang’s fare data, BOS-SAN seems to be B6’s highest yielding BOS transcon market, so there is a strong indicator that the market can absorb more capacity, although I am a bit surprised it’s not on Mint. Perhaps due to a lack of spare capacity.

DL is really increasing capacity from BOS to Florida. B6 prints money in these markets. Things are sure getting interesting...

The Asiana ord-Icn is a cancelled route. This was publicized quite a bit over the last two weeks.

AA HAV-MIA JUL 5>6[4] AUG 5>6[4]


CLT-HAV slot transfer must have recieved final approval to start 6th MIA-HAV flight.

jasoncrh wrote:

The Asiana ord-Icn is a cancelled route. This was publicized quite a bit over the last two weeks.

I thought so, but people jump down my throat now if I say a route is cut if peak season isn’t deleted. So I’m gun-shy.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!

It looks like B6’s third BOS-SAN frequency will be on an A320, not on a Mint A321. No other Mint transcon market except LAS has a mix of Mint and non-Mint aircraft. Taking a look at Tphuang’s fare data, BOS-SAN seems to be B6’s highest yielding BOS transcon market, so there is a strong indicator that the market can absorb more capacity, although I am a bit surprised it’s not on Mint. Perhaps due to a lack of spare capacity.

DL is really increasing capacity from BOS to Florida. B6 prints money in these markets. Things are sure getting interesting...

Thanks. Good observations. I’m sure the Mint fleet can be route limiting.

*DL MSP-SYR DEC 0.6>0.0[0.6]

DL usually stops this route in JAN and FEB before resuming in MAR. I guess this schedule update means they're adding DEC to the hiatus as well.

How many total carriers are there now on BOS-MIA/FLL?

WeatherPilot wrote:

*DL MSP-SYR DEC 0.6>0.0[0.6]

DL usually stops this route in JAN and FEB before resuming in MAR. I guess this schedule update means they're adding DEC to the hiatus as well.

Looks to be the same for BUF based on bookings.

enilria wrote:

Back out again
IG LAX-MXP JUL 0.6>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.5>0[0]

So what does it mean? Are they stopping flight to L.A. from July?

AA DFW-SGU OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA PHX-SGU OCT 2>3[3] NOV 2>3[3]...

My friends in SGU will be tempted to switch FF programs.
The DL/OO link to SLC was the only viable service to SGU for so long that these new services can be hard to believe.
It's still a SkyWest operation at their hometown airport. Too bad that OO can't have their own FF program that crosses over with all of the major brands that they fly for. I'd be well on my way to lifetime status...

redzeppelin wrote:

AA DFW-SGU OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]
AA PHX-SGU OCT 2>3[3] NOV 2>3[3]...

My friends in SGU will be tempted to switch FF programs.
The DL/OO link to SLC was the only viable service to SGU for so long that these new services can be hard to believe.
It's still a SkyWest operation at their hometown airport. Too bad that OO can't have their own FF program that crosses over with all of the major brands that they fly for. I'd be well on my way to lifetime status...

Loving all of these seats for SGU. It has long been my backdoor way into LAS. And you can’t beat the scenery on the drive.

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

How many total carriers are there now on BOS-MIA/FLL?

BOS-MIA: AA, DL
BOS-FLL: B6, DL, NK

Surprisingly, Southwest doesn’t serve the route.

AS is adding capacity from SNA to other markets with the ending of the PVR and SJD...not giving up the slots.

LIPZ wrote:

enilria wrote:

Back out again
IG LAX-MXP JUL 0.6>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0] SEP 0.6>0[0] OCT 0.5>0[0]

So what does it mean? Are they stopping flight to L.A. from July?

It's still on their website, so I'm guessing they misfiled something and OAG rejected it.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!

DL is really increasing capacity from BOS to Florida. B6 prints money in these markets. Things are sure getting interesting...

I thought the same thing. And my how times change. Northeast to Florida was one of those markets on which the airlines printed money prior to deregulation of the U.S. market, and then lost a killing after deregulation, losses that were so big amid low-cost competition that Eastern ended up collapsing. But in a much more mature, more segmented market well after deregulation, it looks like the legacies see these markets as inviting again. And it is also interesting that DL doesn't see a route with ULCC presence such as BOS-FLL as a deal breaker. On a unit cost basis, DL's relatively high density A320s must do pretty well against B6.

One thing I have trouble understanding is how South Florida works as a market. Why is FLL generally bigger for domestic traffic than MIA? Is it because of the cruise market out of FLL? Or generally because the hotel market is more affordable on the Broward County beaches than Miami-Dade? Or because ULCCs stimulate the market whereas they don't at MIA?

Really interesting to see the South Florida growth for DL at BOS. Reminds me of the old Northeast days!

hiflyeras wrote:

AS is adding capacity from SNA to other markets with the ending of the PVR and SJD...not giving up the slots.

Bummer to see these Intl flights disappearing at SNA. I just flew SNA-PVR last week and it was full both directions.

I think that will just leave 1 daily Mexico flight with SNA-SJD by WN.

D8 finally loaded their winter 737 TATL schedule so they are technically not adds. They are showing MAX’s from September on but have been using NGs. PVD keeps DUB in the winter but 4x weekly versus daily this past winter.

For SGU they finally have the population and airport to fly these routes. It's so close to LAS home of low fares and non-stop to everywhere especially when you are "reverse" commuting fares can be a bargain out of LAS.

Hope these do well I see the SGU general are long term will just keep getting bigger and more tourists to Bruce/Zion national park people will start to consider it.

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-MHT DEC 1.0>0.0[0.9]

Is this another seasonal pull-back?

enilria wrote:

AA BWI-PHL JUL 3>4[3]

Does anyone have the O&D vs Connecting share on this route. My guess is that the only people connecting on it are on their way to Europe.

Themotionman wrote:

enilria wrote:

AA BWI-PHL JUL 3>4[3]

Does anyone have the O&D vs Connecting share on this route. My guess is that the only people connecting on it are on their way to Europe.

Look at the prices to do that route R/T its purley for connections

sargester wrote:

Themotionman wrote:

enilria wrote:

AA BWI-PHL JUL 3>4[3]

Does anyone have the O&D vs Connecting share on this route. My guess is that the only people connecting on it are on their way to Europe.

Look at the prices to do that route R/T its purley for connections

Trying to capitalize off of UA pulling out of BWI-EWR.

Just looked up AA PHX-RAP and it’s a CRJ priced in October at $4,700+ RT

TW870 wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!

DL is really increasing capacity from BOS to Florida. B6 prints money in these markets. Things are sure getting interesting...

I thought the same thing. And my how times change. Northeast to Florida was one of those markets on which the airlines printed money prior to deregulation of the U.S. market, and then lost a killing after deregulation, losses that were so big amid low-cost competition that Eastern ended up collapsing. But in a much more mature, more segmented market well after deregulation, it looks like the legacies see these markets as inviting again. And it is also interesting that DL doesn't see a route with ULCC presence such as BOS-FLL as a deal breaker. On a unit cost basis, DL's relatively high density A320s must do pretty well against B6.

One thing I have trouble understanding is how South Florida works as a market. Why is FLL generally bigger for domestic traffic than MIA? Is it because of the cruise market out of FLL? Or generally because the hotel market is more affordable on the Broward County beaches than Miami-Dade? Or because ULCCs stimulate the market whereas they don't at MIA?

Really interesting to see the South Florida growth for DL at BOS. Reminds me of the old Northeast days!

DL a320 should have about 20% higher operating cost than b6 a320.

Keep in mind that dl already runs twice daily in November and December so this is an extension through winter for them on FLL and PBI.

I was always wondering why they didn't start Bos Mia. There is almost no chance they can't do better on there than Bos FLL which is far lower yielding market where they get squeezed on both ends.

We will see if the second flight sticks around. Last year, it was loaded earlier on before getting cut back. They are going from 2 to 6 flights a day in South florida. A lot of seat to fill.

Also I think srq is already operated weekly during winter time by dl. I don't think it's a new route for them.

AM GDL-SJC

So AM is back at SJC? They been totally out for over a year, right?

Scarebus34 wrote:

sargester wrote:

Themotionman wrote:

Does anyone have the O&D vs Connecting share on this route. My guess is that the only people connecting on it are on their way to Europe.

Look at the prices to do that route R/T its purley for connections

Trying to capitalize off of UA pulling out of BWI-EWR.

Yeah trying to grab some connections united use to handle I'm sure. Europe is big but also NY/ VT/ Canada connecting options are good for them in PHL.

Toronto, Monteal, Quebec City , Ottawa, Halifax in addition to Burlington/Plattsburgh, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, Long Island, Westchester, Manchester, Portland, Bangor are all good options plus TONS of Europe now on AA. Mostly about Europe but lots of NA connections are possible and location wise a good location for connecting without a backtrack.

AirFiero wrote:

AM GDL-SJC

So AM is back at SJC? They been totally out for over a year, right?

It looks like it. AM will be the 3rd airline on GDL-SJC after Alaska and Volaris it seems.

Ishrion wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

AM GDL-SJC

So AM is back at SJC? They been totally out for over a year, right?

It looks like it. AM will be the 3rd airline on GDL-SJC after Alaska and Volaris it seems.

Somewhat surprised they're giving GDL a try again instead of having MEX all to themselves like last year.

enilria wrote:

AM GDL-SJC DEC 0>0.6[0.9] JAN 0>0.4[0.2]

AirFiero wrote:

AM GDL-SJC

So AM is back at SJC? They been totally out for over a year, right?

The YOY compare in brackets says it was there a year earlier. Seasonal?

enilria wrote:

enilria wrote:

AM GDL-SJC DEC 0>0.6[0.9] JAN 0>0.4[0.2]

AirFiero wrote:

AM GDL-SJC

So AM is back at SJC? They been totally out for over a year, right?

The YOY compare in brackets says it was there a year earlier. Seasonal?

I can see seasonal service, but I'm pretty sure they've been completely out of SJC for over a year.

SteveXC500 wrote:

Just looked up AA PHX-RAP and it’s a CRJ priced in October at $4,700+ RT

Doesn't appear AA has landed any discount buckets for most of today's adds

SteveXC500 wrote:

Just looked up AA PHX-RAP and it’s a CRJ priced in October at $4,700+ RT

Check again tomorrow after 12pm.

SteveXC500 wrote:

Just looked up AA PHX-RAP and it’s a CRJ priced in October at $4,700+ RT

Schedule change runs on Sunday (the wee hours). Frequently prices aren't loaded until the Revenue Management folks come in on Monday.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

For SGU they finally have the population and airport to fly these routes. It's so close to LAS home of low fares and non-stop to everywhere especially when you are "reverse" commuting fares can be a bargain out of LAS.

Hope these do well I see the SGU general are long term will just keep getting bigger and more tourists to Bruce/Zion national park people will start to consider it.

I just hope the crowding at Zion doesn't get worse.......

I've been to Zion twice, but my favorite memory of Zion was when I was on a late afternoon Northwest DC-10 from LAS to MSP. We passed just west of Zion shortly before sunset. As I was looking out the window, enjoying Zion's incredible beauty, I felt something press against my shoulder. One of the flight attendants had stopped the inflight service to see Zion; she was just as enthralled with it as I was.

tphuang wrote:

TW870 wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!

DL is really increasing capacity from BOS to Florida. B6 prints money in these markets. Things are sure getting interesting...

I thought the same thing. And my how times change. Northeast to Florida was one of those markets on which the airlines printed money prior to deregulation of the U.S. market, and then lost a killing after deregulation, losses that were so big amid low-cost competition that Eastern ended up collapsing. But in a much more mature, more segmented market well after deregulation, it looks like the legacies see these markets as inviting again. And it is also interesting that DL doesn't see a route with ULCC presence such as BOS-FLL as a deal breaker. On a unit cost basis, DL's relatively high density A320s must do pretty well against B6.

One thing I have trouble understanding is how South Florida works as a market. Why is FLL generally bigger for domestic traffic than MIA? Is it because of the cruise market out of FLL? Or generally because the hotel market is more affordable on the Broward County beaches than Miami-Dade? Or because ULCCs stimulate the market whereas they don't at MIA?

Really interesting to see the South Florida growth for DL at BOS. Reminds me of the old Northeast days!

DL a320 should have about 20% higher operating cost than b6 a320.

Keep in mind that dl already runs twice daily in November and December so this is an extension through winter for them on FLL and PBI.

I was always wondering why they didn't start Bos Mia. There is almost no chance they can't do better on there than Bos FLL which is far lower yielding market where they get squeezed on both ends.

We will see if the second flight sticks around. Last year, it was loaded earlier on before getting cut back. They are going from 2 to 6 flights a day in South florida. A lot of seat to fill.

Also I think srq is already operated weekly during winter time by dl. I don't think it's a new route for them.

BOS-MIA/SRQ have both been done before but they were Sat only and they only ran for a few months during spring break season (I think Feb-Apr).

Thanks again enilria

enilria wrote:

AA GIG-MIA DEC 1.5>1.0[1.4] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.5]

is it just me or this seems to be really weak for market that I think should have plenty of demand

AA LAX-SFO AUG 9>8[11]

I know they are going mainline here, but this is very minimal frequency compared to competitors. While this may help their margins, it can't be good for LAX network

AA MIA-SEA AUG 1.4>1.0[1.6]

always surprised this is once a day in peak summer season

More former VX routes see cuts.
*AS BOS-LAX SEP 1.9>1.0[2] OCT 1.8>1.0[1.8]

They've cut this route to once a day plenty of times before. Not sure what they are doing here still. Just as a comparison from Q4. They are far away the weakest here. I'm not sure what's the point of this route for them given where i think LAX ranks in their focus cities/hubs.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
BOSLAX 2611 AA 129808 274.76 271.05 355.18 95.59% 176.5 912 80.64% 218.58
BOSLAX 2611 AS 29124 221.7 219.75 323.34 98.12% 161.5 232 77.74% 170.83
BOSLAX 2611 B6 98143 301.88 301.43 376.07 99.39% 158.9 715 86.36% 260.3
BOSLAX 2611 DL 59850 305.44 301.15 360.36 92.76% 169.2 415 85.25% 256.73
BOSLAX 2611 UA 65602 288.73 284.12 377.97 95.10% 171.7 465 82.16% 233.43

These 2 were routes added by the former head of planning. I think we are starting to see changes from the new org structure.
**AS PVR-SNA AUG 0.5>0.1[0.4] SEP 0.4>0[0.4] OCT 0.5>0[0.4] NOV 0.4>0[0.4] DEC 0.4>0[0.4] JAN 0.4>0[0.5] FEB 0.4>0[0.4]
**AS SJD-SNA AUG 0.5>0.1[0.6] SEP 0.6>0[0.6] OCT 0.5>0[0.6] NOV 0.6>0[0.6] DEC 0.6>0[0.6] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0.6]

i think this is the start of the network adjustments for the new route planner. Going to be more cuts coming up.

B6 ACK-HPN SEP 0.1>0.7[0]

looks like this NYC to ACK on steroid move is going well. Would love to check the yields here later this year

B6 BDL-PBI SEP 1.0>1.4[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.4[1.0]

they clearly do well on these BDL to Florida routes. They should add more here to keep their relevance in the area between NYC and Boston.

B6 BOS-PDX SEP 0.2>1.1[0.8] OCT 0>0.8[0.3]
B6 BOS-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

for the former, I think it should put away any question about their desire to keep BOS-PDX around. I think it goes year round once A220 is ready. And for the latter, I'm not sure why the 3rd flight is regular A320. They do have enough mint aircraft to run this 3x during summer time. Where is that aircraft going for sep/oct?

DL BOS-FLL JAN 1.3>2[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0]
DL BOS-MCO JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3]
**DL BOS-MIA DEC 0>0.7[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0]
DL BOS-PBI DEC 0.3>0.7[0.4] JAN 1.0>2[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0]
**DL BOS-SRQ DEC 0>0.4[0] JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.2[0]

Just to put things in perspective, here are the yields on these routes from Q4, which was a very healthy quarter on BOS-Florida market. Q3 had much worse numbers all the way around. I don't think this amount to that much capacity increase, especially if it's just A319 or A320 in the markets. I'm surprised DL hasn't tried BOS-MIA until now, which is generally a much higher fare market than BOS-PBI/FLL. Keep in mind what each carrier runs on these routes. BOS-MCO is normally a much higher yielding route for DL than FLL/PBI.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare % NSPerFlight# Flights LF Yield
BOSFLL 1237 B6 125036 218.00 217.20 97.70% 149.8 966 86.38% 187.62
BOSFLL 1237 DL 27546 188.80 185.39 87.68% 158.1 204 85.41% 158.35
BOSFLL 1237 NK 57284 93.00 93.07 97.39% 215.0 320 83.25% 77.48
BOSMIA 1258 AA 178731 221.07 221.18 94.64% 169.8 1180 89.20% 197.30
BOSPBI 1197 B6 105859 226.68 226.55 99.43% 142.2 926 80.38% 182.11
BOSPBI 1197 NK 11859 91.16 91.16 100.00% 145.6 108 75.39% 68.73
BOSMCO 1121 B6 178045 198.93 198.68 98.94% 181.0 1235 79.63% 158.21
BOSMCO 1121 DL 59978 195.70 193.58 93.71% 158.4 468 80.90% 156.62
BOSMCO 1121 NK 49195 79.44 79.30 98.09% 181.9 325 83.21% 65.99
BOSMCO 1121 WN 2240 192.92 166.04 39.94% 151.0 16 92.72% 153.95
BOSSRQ 1220 B6 21904 229.49 229.26 99.95% 146.9 188 79.29% 181.77

VS LHR-MIA NOV 2>1.4[2] JAN 1.9>1.4[1.7]
VS LHR-SFO JAN 2>1.4[1.9] FEB 2>1.3[1.8]

Are these slots going somewhere else?

WA707atMSP wrote:

I just hope the crowding at Zion doesn't get worse.......

I feel like that was a line from The Matrix.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks again enilria

tphuang wrote:

is it just me or this seems to be really weak for market that I think should have plenty of demand

and DL just ended JFK-GIG

tphuang wrote:

i think this is the start of the network adjustments for the new route planner. Going to be more cuts coming up.

I wonder if there will be adds? The rumor is that PDX might gain a little at the expanse of the VX routes.

tphuang wrote:

Where is that aircraft going for sep/oct?

They probably don't have any planes (or few) in Summer C-Check and then some roll in for Fall, although those planes are pretty new I think. Regardless, there's probably a line of maintenance flow in off-season even if it isn't C-checks.

tphuang wrote:

VS LHR-MIA NOV 2>1.4[2] JAN 1.9>1.4[1.7]
VS LHR-SFO JAN 2>1.4[1.9] FEB 2>1.3[1.8]

Are these slots going somewhere else?

Good point.

Good post as well.

AS ANC-JNU OCT 3>4[3]

Lost in the noise but this is great news for anyone travelling to or from JNU.

TW870 wrote:

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thanks enilria!

DL is really increasing capacity from BOS to Florida. B6 prints money in these markets. Things are sure getting interesting...

I thought the same thing. And my how times change. Northeast to Florida was one of those markets on which the airlines printed money prior to deregulation of the U.S. market, and then lost a killing after deregulation, losses that were so big amid low-cost competition that Eastern ended up collapsing. But in a much more mature, more segmented market well after deregulation, it looks like the legacies see these markets as inviting again. And it is also interesting that DL doesn't see a route with ULCC presence such as BOS-FLL as a deal breaker. On a unit cost basis, DL's relatively high density A320s must do pretty well against B6.

One thing I have trouble understanding is how South Florida works as a market. Why is FLL generally bigger for domestic traffic than MIA? Is it because of the cruise market out of FLL? Or generally because the hotel market is more affordable on the Broward County beaches than Miami-Dade? Or because ULCCs stimulate the market whereas they don't at MIA?

Really interesting to see the South Florida growth for DL at BOS. Reminds me of the old Northeast days!

The type of tourist traffic that visits South Florida can differ between counties. Both airports benefit from their respective cruise ports, but MIA sees a lot more international tourism to its primary hotspots like Brickell, South Beach, Doral, etc. from Latin America and Europe. Domestic traffic primarily comes from the major metros and other cities in the Southeast that help feed the AA hub.

Your premise is quite right, FLL's tourist traffic tends to be lower fare passengers taking advantage of the cheaper hotel and property prices in Broward vs Dade. Much of this traffic is looking for the cheapest deal to their second home or a quieter beach destination in Hollywood, Hallandale, Pompano, etc. This traffic is part of what made FLL successful for NK, B6, and WN who can handle the lower yields. As said upthread, FLL also benefits from being within range of the majority of the tricounty region's population, and the airport also benefits from easy highway access to the West Coast on 595. There is definitely sizable international demand for FLL, but the market is still not as large as MIA for international tourism, and the majority of success outside of Latin America has come from LCCs/package carriers.

Despite its low-yield reputation, I actually think yields have improved/will improve at FLL over recent years. B6's mint does well on FLL-LAX/SFO, and EK has been able to support reasonable service. Whether this traffic is stolen from MIA or a result of the growth in the area is a debate for another thread.

With AA dropping the MEI-PIB market, that is cutting ORD-PIB thru service. Effective Sep 4, PIB will have DFW twice per day and MEI will have 1-DFW and 1-ORD daily.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

sargester wrote:

Look at the prices to do that route R/T its purley for connections

Trying to capitalize off of UA pulling out of BWI-EWR.

Yeah trying to grab some connections united use to handle I'm sure. Europe is big but also NY/ VT/ Canada connecting options are good for them in PHL.

Toronto, Monteal, Quebec City , Ottawa, Halifax in addition to Burlington/Plattsburgh, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, Long Island, Westchester, Manchester, Portland, Bangor are all good options plus TONS of Europe now on AA. Mostly about Europe but lots of NA connections are possible and location wise a good location for connecting without a backtrack.

Or west/midwest too. BWI may have great service thanks to the WN "hub" but it doesn't have great service to medium markets and terrible service to small markets. So this is a great way for AA to capture traffic to smaller cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana (e.g. LAN, FNT, etc.) that would otherwise have to run through ORD or DTW. Also captures westbound traffic that WN doesn't offer n/s or at various times of the day.

Don't discount the leftover USAir ff base too and those passengers willingness to connect to gain miles. Anyone who valued being able sit up front or to use miles for free Int'l trips probably stayed loyal to US even after WN took over the airport in the late 90s/early 00s.

Chuska wrote:

With AA dropping the MEI-PIB market, that is cutting ORD-PIB thru service. Effective Sep 4, PIB will have DFW twice per day and MEI will have 1-DFW and 1-ORD daily.

I suspected that would be the impact. The era of tags is long over. I was kinda surprised they went into MEI-PIB in the first place.

enilria wrote:

Chuska wrote:

With AA dropping the MEI-PIB market, that is cutting ORD-PIB thru service. Effective Sep 4, PIB will have DFW twice per day and MEI will have 1-DFW and 1-ORD daily.

I suspected that would be the impact. The era of tags is long over. I was kinda surprised they went into MEI-PIB in the first place.

I as well. Are those EAS markets?

So BA LHR-PHL, I'm assuming that's going to 2x daily during the week while they maintain their daily 747 (BA066) Saturday and Sunday?

EvanWSFO wrote:

enilria wrote:

Chuska wrote:

With AA dropping the MEI-PIB market, that is cutting ORD-PIB thru service. Effective Sep 4, PIB will have DFW twice per day and MEI will have 1-DFW and 1-ORD daily.

I suspected that would be the impact. The era of tags is long over. I was kinda surprised they went into MEI-PIB in the first place.

I as well. Are those EAS markets?

Yes
https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... ct2016.pdf

enilria wrote:

I wonder if there will be adds? The rumor is that PDX might gain a little at the expanse of the VX routes.

I agree that there might be some more adds by AS out of PDX, and there are still some nonstop routes such as PDX-FLL, PDX-IND, and PDX-TPA that could be added by AS out of PDX.

tphuang wrote:

These 2 were routes added by the former head of planning. I think we are starting to see changes from the new org structure.
**AS PVR-SNA AUG 0.5>0.1[0.4] SEP 0.4>0[0.4] OCT 0.5>0[0.4] NOV 0.4>0[0.4] DEC 0.4>0[0.4] JAN 0.4>0[0.5] FEB 0.4>0[0.4]
**AS SJD-SNA AUG 0.5>0.1[0.6] SEP 0.6>0[0.6] OCT 0.5>0[0.6] NOV 0.6>0[0.6] DEC 0.6>0[0.6] JAN 0.6>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0.6]

i think this is the start of the network adjustments for the new route planner. Going to be more cuts coming up.

The SNAPVR and SNASJD flights were cut to add 2X more SNASJC frequencies, going to 6X daily. The FF base appreciates frequencies, especially intra-CA, and this is a better use of those SNA slots. If AS were to gain additional slots the next time they're allocated, these routes could be considered for a return.