• 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 8
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:38 am

Welcome to New Zealand Aviation Thread May 2019. Please continue to add your comments below.

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1419187&p=21317211#p21317211
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
VirginFlyer
Posts: 5164
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2000 12:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:48 pm

qf787, I have a suggestion: when creating these new threads, are you able to post the thread starter in the end of the old thread, then split it off to become a new thread?

The reason I ask this is because I (and I am sure others too) use the subscribe topic and notification functions to see new posts. It is easy to end up missing a week of the thread if you’re quite busy and only checking the notifications. I have seen before threads appear in my notifications where a post from another thread has been split off to form that thread, so I believe it is technically possible. It would be most appreciated if you were able to look at doing this for threads like this one.

As I have said in the past I do believe a better solution would be simply to have one running thread, since
  • with pages there aren’t issues with having to load thousands of posts at the same time, and creating multiple threads just creates many sets of unjoined pages rather than one set of joined pages;
  • having one ongoing thread would allow for easier use of the Search this topic function;
  • it would make it significantly easier to quote a post from last month (well even yesterday, today!) - right now to do that I need to open the other thread, copy the post, come to this thread, paste it, and use the quote tags including manually entering the name of the poster in the correct syntax, as opposed to simply going to the post and hitting the quote button, which I could do if there was one ongoing thread.
however I understand a lot of people have expressed dislike of such a change.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
tu2130
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:41 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:23 pm

D-AVYR Was spotted in air New Zealand paint on 30 April 2019 But Hamburg is behind as for NZ It shows up on the family flights on aibfamilyflights (ZK-NNF)
Air New Zealand. Proud to fly.
 
PA515
Posts: 1465
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 01, 2019 2:44 am

tu2130 wrote:
D-AVYR Was spotted in air New Zealand paint on 30 April 2019 But Hamburg is behind as for NZ It shows up on the family flights on aibfamilyflights (ZK-NNF)


Don't quite get what you mean by "But Hamburg is behind as for NZ".

Some confusion regarding the test registration. This photo of ZK-NNF has the test registration of D-AYAR instead of D-AVYR.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/46825965805

PA515
 
a7ala
Posts: 267
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 01, 2019 4:09 am

LATAM flying non-stop SCL-SYD 3/week. Its not clear from the article what is happening on the 3 days the service isnt stopping in AKL, but I presume AKL-SCL and AKL-SYD will be dropping to 4/week?

https://www.ausbt.com.au/latam-s-sydney ... ource=hero
 
tu2130
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:41 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 01, 2019 5:32 am

The time zone I mean.
Air New Zealand. Proud to fly.
 
JQ321
Posts: 120
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:40 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 01, 2019 6:38 am

a7ala wrote:
LATAM flying non-stop SCL-SYD 3/week. Its not clear from the article what is happening on the 3 days the service isnt stopping in AKL, but I presume AKL-SCL and AKL-SYD will be dropping to 4/week?

https://www.ausbt.com.au/latam-s-sydney ... ource=hero

They haven't stated anything really except it will happen by the end of the year. No announcement of Starting Date, Aircraft, Or anything else.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6726
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 01, 2019 8:03 am

a7ala wrote:
LATAM flying non-stop SCL-SYD 3/week. Its not clear from the article what is happening on the 3 days the service isnt stopping in AKL, but I presume AKL-SCL and AKL-SYD will be dropping to 4/week?

https://www.ausbt.com.au/latam-s-sydney ... ource=hero



AKL-BNE 3 days?
 
a7ala
Posts: 267
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 2:28 am

For those of you that have been struggling for New Zealand domestic airport passenger numbers, I note that the MoT has just released a dashboard which includes this and other variables

https://www.transport.govt.nz/mot-resou ... -airports/
 
777ER
Head Moderator
Posts: 10036
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 4:24 am

FJ is buying 2x A359 for expansion.

Source Fiji Airways
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
JQ321
Posts: 120
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:40 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 6:13 am

777ER wrote:
FJ is buying 2x A359 for expansion.

Source Fiji Airways

They're not buying them. They're leasing them from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. They will be delivered in November and December 2019.
 
777ER
Head Moderator
Posts: 10036
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 7:02 am

JQ321 wrote:
777ER wrote:
FJ is buying 2x A359 for expansion.

Source Fiji Airways

They're not buying them. They're leasing them from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. They will be delivered in November and December 2019.

Original source posted purchasing with the assistance of the Fiji Government
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
JQ321
Posts: 120
Joined: Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:40 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 7:58 am

777ER wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
777ER wrote:
FJ is buying 2x A359 for expansion.

Source Fiji Airways

They're not buying them. They're leasing them from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. They will be delivered in November and December 2019.

Original source posted purchasing with the assistance of the Fiji Government

Well that's not the Case. This would also indicate that this might be to see whether this Plane suits their fleet requirements .

Source:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... o-auckland
https://www.miragenews.com/fiji-airways ... a350-900s/
 
777ER
Head Moderator
Posts: 10036
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 8:28 am

JQ321 wrote:
777ER wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
They're not buying them. They're leasing them from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. They will be delivered in November and December 2019.

Original source posted purchasing with the assistance of the Fiji Government

Well that's not the Case. This would also indicate that this might be to see whether this Plane suits their fleet requirements .

Source:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... o-auckland
https://www.miragenews.com/fiji-airways ... a350-900s/

Obviously it isn't the case especially since FJ have removed the original post from their Facebook page!
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4257
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 10:59 am

777ER wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
777ER wrote:
Original source posted purchasing with the assistance of the Fiji Government

Well that's not the Case. This would also indicate that this might be to see whether this Plane suits their fleet requirements .

Source:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... o-auckland
https://www.miragenews.com/fiji-airways ... a350-900s/

Obviously it isn't the case especially since FJ have removed the original post from their Facebook page!

If they are then it is a small tip in favour of Airbus for QF since FJ usually gets what QF gets (and QF owns a large stake in FJ with a close relationship).
NZ should be releasing their decision any week now.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
PA515
Posts: 1465
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 3:12 pm

Air NZ A321-271NX ZK-NNE (msn 8799) on delivery XFW-MCT as NZ6098. Presently between KIH and DXB.

https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ6098/205d722c
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-nne

PA515
 
NZ321
Posts: 1050
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 3:39 pm

It would seem to me at first glance that FJ is growing fast for an airline of their size. A359 order today. Maybe that will be sustainable and maybe it won't. But what about the market that NZ has handed them in terms of the coral route. Are we really so sure that NZ has no presence on, for instance, AKL-NAN-HNL with an A321 appropriately configured? NAN used to be a regular stop-over en route to NZ and it seems as though all the feed into Fiji from other ports is not on a Star Alliance aligned carrier. Meanwhile FJ improving connections to island nations. NZ's overall market presence in the South Pacific seems to be taking a hit. That tells me NZ is going to feel some more pressure and NZ seems to think that they have the answers via AKL. But maybe NAN is traffic that is not considered to be in the desirable domain at the moment. But what happens when this market evolves as it will... ? What does this say about the long-term strategy? Where does this leave NZ then? What's the plan, Stan? Are they going to continue to ignore this? And if so, why? What is the long-term game given increasing competition?
Plane mad!
 
NZ6
Posts: 967
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 9:00 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
If they are then it is a small tip in favour of Airbus for QF since FJ usually gets what QF gets (and QF owns a large stake in FJ with a close relationship).
NZ should be releasing their decision any week now.


Watch this space....

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/media-releases

Based on what they've said, a decision is set for the last quarter of FY19 which leaves them this month and next. A decision has been made and I've been told a few tentative timeframes for the announcement but these have a tendency to slide around a lot.

It could be as early as imminent or as late as annual results time.

Any final guesses of which way it'll go?
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1332
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 9:34 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Any final guesses of which way it'll go?

My 2c worth:
* 6 firm orders for 789, four of them in a ULR “Code 3” config and two in Code 2;
* 4 options for either 789 or 787-10 (or even the 778 at a pinch, though I doubt that).

If the 787-10 is LAX-worthy by the time the options are exercised then the options will be exercised for them. This will also lead to the 77W replacement also being the 787-10.

If the 787-10 is not LAX-worthy by then, Airbus has a chance with the 35K for both the ULR and the 77W requirement. (12 frames total a little later).

Total WB fleet 20 789 and 12 787-10 or 35K. Or even 778 but I doubt that.

Remember: you read it here first!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1332
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 9:48 pm

NZ321 wrote:
What does this say about the long-term strategy? Where does this leave NZ then? What's the plan, Stan? Are they going to continue to ignore this? And if so, why? What is the long-term game given increasing competition?

The long-term game is the “no new one-stops” hub and spoke business model which they’ve been following for years now. Much though I’d love to see a return to the Pacific.

Re the Coral Route - I’m waiting for an airline to start a 3x weekly service (perhaps) NAN-APW-RAR-PPT, NAN-TBU-RAR-PPT and NAN-IUE-RAR-PPT with an A220-100, connecting at RAR to and from LAX for TBU pax. Or even at a pinch with an AT7 or DH3, though that will make for some long sector times and probably weight restrictions. Know any airline that has some handy? However, I fear I may be waiting a while. Perhaps they could call it “Air Pacific” . . .
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3553
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 9:50 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Any final guesses of which way it'll go?


My guess is 8 x A359 as 77E with 10 x A350 options which can include all variants as a future replacement for 77W. There will also be a few 78J orders for Asia growth.
come visit the south pacific
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1332
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 10:07 pm

Motorhussy wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Any final guesses of which way it'll go?


My guess is 8 x A359 as 77E with 10 x A350 options which can include all variants as a future replacement for 77W. There will also be a few 78J orders for Asia growth.

Re the 78J for Asian route expansion: surely this goes against the stated strategy of “frequency first” over capacity?
Last edited by DavidByrne on Thu May 02, 2019 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6726
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 10:14 pm

NZ321 wrote:
It would seem to me at first glance that FJ is growing fast for an airline of their size. A359 order today. Maybe that will be sustainable and maybe it won't. But what about the market that NZ has handed them in terms of the coral route. Are we really so sure that NZ has no presence on, for instance, AKL-NAN-HNL with an A321 appropriately configured? NAN used to be a regular stop-over en route to NZ and it seems as though all the feed into Fiji from other ports is not on a Star Alliance aligned carrier. Meanwhile FJ improving connections to island nations. NZ's overall market presence in the South Pacific seems to be taking a hit. That tells me NZ is going to feel some more pressure and NZ seems to think that they have the answers via AKL. But maybe NAN is traffic that is not considered to be in the desirable domain at the moment. But what happens when this market evolves as it will... ? What does this say about the long-term strategy? Where does this leave NZ then? What's the plan, Stan? Are they going to continue to ignore this? And if so, why? What is the long-term game given increasing competition?


Some of the coral routes were said to do ok while others were and still are subsidised RAR-LAX, NZ code share with FJ and TN, there is really no way they are going back to any of those routes, APW-LAX got a subsidy for a while before the Samoan government didn’t want to pay it and the route was dropped in 2011.

I honk you will find NZ’s overall presence has grown with a lot more dedicated capacity ex AKL and daily or near sail widebodies to NAN/RAR/APW.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6726
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 10:16 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Motorhussy wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Any final guesses of which way it'll go?


My guess is 8 x A359 as 77E with 10 x A350 options which can include all variants as a future replacement for 77W. There will also be a few 78J orders for Asia growth.

Re the 78J for Asian route expansion: surely this goes against the stated strategy of “frequency first” over capacity?


It’s said that some routes could do with more premium capacity, and the 78J is very efficient. Same could be said if they went A359. While some ports are slot restricted, PVG etc.

I think it will be 6 78J for Asia/PER/HNL and 4 789HGW code 3 configuration for ULH.
 
nz2
Posts: 243
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:38 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 12:19 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

I think it will be 6 78J for Asia/PER/HNL and 4 789HGW code 3 configuration for ULH.



Lets hope so!
 
User avatar
aerorobnz
Posts: 8256
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2001 3:43 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 1:09 am

A350-900/1000 mix for me. Say 6 of each with options for another 6. I think it may well be part of a larger Airbus narrowbody order.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
tealnz
Posts: 493
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 1:24 am

Threshold question for NZ fleet selection is whether they can or want to change their business model to something more like QF ie with higher premium/much lower pax density/much lower freight configuration for long haul routes. That's the only way the 789 becomes a potential 77E replacement. Can anyone point to evidence the board and management are thinking of a change of this scale? If not I think you're stuck with the assumption they will need the payload/range of the A359 to service the more demanding North American routes (including NYC) plus GRU. On paper the 359 has always been the most natural 77E replacement anyway.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1332
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 2:42 am

tealnz wrote:
Threshold question for NZ fleet selection is whether they can or want to change their business model to something more like QF ie with higher premium/much lower pax density/much lower freight configuration for long haul routes. That's the only way the 789 becomes a potential 77E replacement. Can anyone point to evidence the board and management are thinking of a change of this scale? If not I think you're stuck with the assumption they will need the payload/range of the A359 to service the more demanding North American routes (including NYC) plus GRU. On paper the 359 has always been the most natural 77E replacement anyway.

I think the point in favour of the 789 for ULH flights is fleet commonality. I’ve always assumed that for ANY ULH flight there would need to be a higher premium component because of the higher costs involved. A “Code 3” 789 could be the answer there, though it would be a limited subfleet (4aircraft?) for EWR and GRU primarily.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4257
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 4:27 am

[url][/url]
aerorobnz wrote:
A350-900/1000 mix for me. Say 6 of each with options for another 6. I think it may well be part of a larger Airbus narrowbody order.

+1 and maybe some 78J as Motorhussy said but I’m thinking not as likely as it overlaps the A359 in every way except range. NZ isn’t a big airline that can have lots of types (but might just squeeze in being common with 789).
A359 means you can do EWR right away vs waiting for 77X. 789 just can’t do it economically in NZ type configuration unless Boeing can come out with an ER/LR version.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
axio
Posts: 249
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 4:48 am

Ilyushin Il-96 all the way, what with Winston and his determination for trade deals with Russia :D

Failing that.... I'd like the 359 just for the little bit extra space as really I don't enjoy the 787. So I'm going with 359 and 35J to replace the 772 and 773 respectively, and 787 to continue on either extreme-haul or high-density routes.
Time for a new viewing deck at AKL!
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6726
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 9:45 am

tealnz wrote:
Threshold question for NZ fleet selection is whether they can or want to change their business model to something more like QF ie with higher premium/much lower pax density/much lower freight configuration for long haul routes. That's the only way the 789 becomes a potential 77E replacement. Can anyone point to evidence the board and management are thinking of a change of this scale? If not I think you're stuck with the assumption they will need the payload/range of the A359 to service the more demanding North American routes (including NYC) plus GRU. On paper the 359 has always been the most natural 77E replacement anyway.


NZ have been changing over the last several years, with JV’s with SQ/CX/UA etc. A fleet of 78Js can cover daily year round to HKG/SIN/NRT with additional frequencies operated by 789s or JV partners, like SIN now NZ run 2 daily in NS and I’d see HKG going the same way.

Do NZ need 300+ seats into GRU/NYC? That’s a lot of capacity when a code 3 789 would carry 250 max and allow for more frequency.

The 359 has always been and still is the most closest replacement to the 77E as an individual aircraft, how about though in an airlines overall fleet, network planning etc.
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3553
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:11 am

NZ are going to do what’s best for the airline, of this I’m certain, they’re a well managed business.

I just hope this also meshes with what’s best for the long-haul traveller which I believe is better served by the A350 having flown both options.
come visit the south pacific
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 325
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:46 am

Motorhussy wrote:
NZ are going to do what’s best for the airline, of this I’m certain, they’re a well managed business.

I just hope this also meshes with what’s best for the long-haul traveller which I believe is better served by the A350 having flown both options.


My guess is the needs of the long haul passenger won't be front and centre when they make a decision.
 
EChid
Posts: 522
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 12:51 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Any final guesses of which way it'll go?

My 2c worth:
* 6 firm orders for 789, four of them in a ULR “Code 3” config and two in Code 2;
* 4 options for either 789 or 787-10 (or even the 778 at a pinch, though I doubt that).

If the 787-10 is LAX-worthy by the time the options are exercised then the options will be exercised for them. This will also lead to the 77W replacement also being the 787-10.

If the 787-10 is not LAX-worthy by then, Airbus has a chance with the 35K for both the ULR and the 77W requirement. (12 frames total a little later).

Total WB fleet 20 789 and 12 787-10 or 35K. Or even 778 but I doubt that.

Remember: you read it here first!

But you've literally just guessed all of the possible options! :D

Personally, I'm hoping for an A350 sale. I would say the 77X will not happen in any way, shape, or form.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4257
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 1:41 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Threshold question for NZ fleet selection is whether they can or want to change their business model to something more like QF ie with higher premium/much lower pax density/much lower freight configuration for long haul routes. That's the only way the 789 becomes a potential 77E replacement. Can anyone point to evidence the board and management are thinking of a change of this scale? If not I think you're stuck with the assumption they will need the payload/range of the A359 to service the more demanding North American routes (including NYC) plus GRU. On paper the 359 has always been the most natural 77E replacement anyway.


NZ have been changing over the last several years, with JV’s with SQ/CX/UA etc. A fleet of 78Js can cover daily year round to HKG/SIN/NRT with additional frequencies operated by 789s or JV partners, like SIN now NZ run 2 daily in NS and I’d see HKG going the same way.

Do NZ need 300+ seats into GRU/NYC? That’s a lot of capacity when a code 3 789 would carry 250 max and allow for more frequency.

The 359 has always been and still is the most closest replacement to the 77E as an individual aircraft, how about though in an airlines overall fleet, network planning etc.

No, they don’t “need” 300+ seats to EWR/GRU... but they also don’t “need” a very large business seat count (where 2/3 of the plane is business and premium economy). Also NZ runs a rather high proportion of belly freight for a passenger airline so to maintain that for ULH they need something with more legs and payload capability than a 789 provides IMO. So unless the 789 can gain a bump or become an ER version etc it isn’t going to cut it. That leaves the A350 vs 77X. 77X is too much airplane IMO especially with NZ splitting into a more P2P setup which is why I think the A350 will get it (not too mention it’s the most comfortable in Y for ULH out of the 3).

EWR,ORD,IAH,YVR,LHR would all go to A350 leaving HNL, SFO, LAX (NZ6) as 789 flights (and possibly something like SEA or PDX). Asia can go 789 as could EZE but GRU would probably need A350.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
PA515
Posts: 1465
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 8:03 pm

Ex Air NZ A320-232 ZK-OJN (msn 2594) departed CHC 03 May as TC-ODD. Was meant to depart 30 Apr.
https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=1

Photo of TC-ODD yesterday at ADL.
https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/9298684

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6726
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 9:13 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Threshold question for NZ fleet selection is whether they can or want to change their business model to something more like QF ie with higher premium/much lower pax density/much lower freight configuration for long haul routes. That's the only way the 789 becomes a potential 77E replacement. Can anyone point to evidence the board and management are thinking of a change of this scale? If not I think you're stuck with the assumption they will need the payload/range of the A359 to service the more demanding North American routes (including NYC) plus GRU. On paper the 359 has always been the most natural 77E replacement anyway.


NZ have been changing over the last several years, with JV’s with SQ/CX/UA etc. A fleet of 78Js can cover daily year round to HKG/SIN/NRT with additional frequencies operated by 789s or JV partners, like SIN now NZ run 2 daily in NS and I’d see HKG going the same way.

Do NZ need 300+ seats into GRU/NYC? That’s a lot of capacity when a code 3 789 would carry 250 max and allow for more frequency.

The 359 has always been and still is the most closest replacement to the 77E as an individual aircraft, how about though in an airlines overall fleet, network planning etc.

No, they don’t “need” 300+ seats to EWR/GRU... but they also don’t “need” a very large business seat count (where 2/3 of the plane is business and premium economy). Also NZ runs a rather high proportion of belly freight for a passenger airline so to maintain that for ULH they need something with more legs and payload capability than a 789 provides IMO. So unless the 789 can gain a bump or become an ER version etc it isn’t going to cut it. That leaves the A350 vs 77X. 77X is too much airplane IMO especially with NZ splitting into a more P2P setup which is why I think the A350 will get it (not too mention it’s the most comfortable in Y for ULH out of the 3).

EWR,ORD,IAH,YVR,LHR would all go to A350 leaving HNL, SFO, LAX (NZ6) as 789 flights (and possibly something like SEA or PDX). Asia can go 789 as could EZE but GRU would probably need A350.



I’d have thought in those ULH routes there would be a reasonable Premium demand, and need for a few less Y seats. The CEO said they could remove 30Y seats from the 789, I’d say remove 45 and add a few more W, J, something like 33J, 47W, 170Y total 250.

NZ aren’t going to go with what’s most comfortable in Y more like what’s most efficient for their fleet and network. Also fleet simplying.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4257
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:15 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

NZ have been changing over the last several years, with JV’s with SQ/CX/UA etc. A fleet of 78Js can cover daily year round to HKG/SIN/NRT with additional frequencies operated by 789s or JV partners, like SIN now NZ run 2 daily in NS and I’d see HKG going the same way.

Do NZ need 300+ seats into GRU/NYC? That’s a lot of capacity when a code 3 789 would carry 250 max and allow for more frequency.

The 359 has always been and still is the most closest replacement to the 77E as an individual aircraft, how about though in an airlines overall fleet, network planning etc.

No, they don’t “need” 300+ seats to EWR/GRU... but they also don’t “need” a very large business seat count (where 2/3 of the plane is business and premium economy). Also NZ runs a rather high proportion of belly freight for a passenger airline so to maintain that for ULH they need something with more legs and payload capability than a 789 provides IMO. So unless the 789 can gain a bump or become an ER version etc it isn’t going to cut it. That leaves the A350 vs 77X. 77X is too much airplane IMO especially with NZ splitting into a more P2P setup which is why I think the A350 will get it (not too mention it’s the most comfortable in Y for ULH out of the 3).

EWR,ORD,IAH,YVR,LHR would all go to A350 leaving HNL, SFO, LAX (NZ6) as 789 flights (and possibly something like SEA or PDX). Asia can go 789 as could EZE but GRU would probably need A350.



I’d have thought in those ULH routes there would be a reasonable Premium demand, and need for a few less Y seats. The CEO said they could remove 30Y seats from the 789, I’d say remove 45 and add a few more W, J, something like 33J, 47W, 170Y total 250.

NZ aren’t going to go with what’s most comfortable in Y more like what’s most efficient for their fleet and network. Also fleet simplying.
more premium demand yes, a big increase in premium demand? No. That 250 only gets you to EWR, it doesn’t get you there with belly freight which NZ relies on. As for fleet simplifying, that’s overrated. NZ will effectively have gone from 6 jet types to 3 with A350 option or 2 kinda with the 787 (3 if they get the 78K), remember the saying don’t put all your eggs in one basket (which the 787 would be especially with recent dramas).
As for comfort it’s isnt a huge consideration, but is still considered especially if it doesn’t impact on profitability etc).
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ6
Posts: 967
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:44 pm

NTLDaz wrote:
Motorhussy wrote:
NZ are going to do what’s best for the airline, of this I’m certain, they’re a well managed business.

I just hope this also meshes with what’s best for the long-haul traveller which I believe is better served by the A350 having flown both options.


My guess is the needs of the long haul passenger won't be front and centre when they make a decision.


NZ isn't the model of EK, SQ etc so of course business economics is paramount when spending billions on new planes. Much like it is for the vast majority of airlines in the world, only a very few put seemingly bottomless pits of money to throw at new luxurious cabins. :roll:

Buy the wrong plane and it's 20 years of poor performance if not ruining the business. Both models have sold very well internationally, there's not real "issue" with one over the other except personal preference, therefore NZ will buy the best plane for the business and fit what they see as an appropriate cabin into it.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6726
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:47 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
No, they don’t “need” 300+ seats to EWR/GRU... but they also don’t “need” a very large business seat count (where 2/3 of the plane is business and premium economy). Also NZ runs a rather high proportion of belly freight for a passenger airline so to maintain that for ULH they need something with more legs and payload capability than a 789 provides IMO. So unless the 789 can gain a bump or become an ER version etc it isn’t going to cut it. That leaves the A350 vs 77X. 77X is too much airplane IMO especially with NZ splitting into a more P2P setup which is why I think the A350 will get it (not too mention it’s the most comfortable in Y for ULH out of the 3).

EWR,ORD,IAH,YVR,LHR would all go to A350 leaving HNL, SFO, LAX (NZ6) as 789 flights (and possibly something like SEA or PDX). Asia can go 789 as could EZE but GRU would probably need A350.



I’d have thought in those ULH routes there would be a reasonable Premium demand, and need for a few less Y seats. The CEO said they could remove 30Y seats from the 789, I’d say remove 45 and add a few more W, J, something like 33J, 47W, 170Y total 250.

NZ aren’t going to go with what’s most comfortable in Y more like what’s most efficient for their fleet and network. Also fleet simplying.
more premium demand yes, a big increase in premium demand? No. That 250 only gets you to EWR, it doesn’t get you there with belly freight which NZ relies on. As for fleet simplifying, that’s overrated. NZ will effectively have gone from 6 jet types to 3 with A350 option or 2 kinda with the 787 (3 if they get the 78K), remember the saying don’t put all your eggs in one basket (which the 787 would be especially with recent dramas).
As for comfort it’s isnt a huge consideration, but is still considered especially if it doesn’t impact on profitability etc).


Who says NZ want to carry belly freight? It is about operating costs these days, the 789 is extremely efficient, sure it doesn’t uplift as much as the 359 but it’s smaller and good at what it does, look at SFO-SIN, PER-LHR etc.

All eggs in one basket? Until mid sized aircraft like the 787/350 there hasn’t been that option to a one size fits all for to many airlines. My pick is an eventual fleet of 78J/789/321/320/ATR72-600, 3 total types.
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1154
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:59 pm

PA515 wrote:
Ex Air NZ A320-232 ZK-OJN (msn 2594) departed CHC 03 May as TC-ODD. Was meant to depart 30 Apr.
https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=1

Photo of TC-ODD yesterday at ADL.
https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/9298684

PA515


Thanks fro the updates, PA515 - much appreciated!

I can't believe that the A320s are leaving the fleet already. I remember my first NZ A320 flight (15APR06, AKL-NAN, ZK-OJI): I was excited about it after years of B737-300 services. And not long after that I tried to get on the 733 as often as possible before they were retired. Now we have the first generation A320s retiring. How times flies....
 
tu2130
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:41 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:00 pm

Auckland Airport has departures and arrivals delayed and cancelled by fog As just before a wet-leased Malindo Air B737 just flew past Mt.Taranaki 10 mins ago and may divert of the following Airport: Christchurch Intl Airport.
Air New Zealand. Proud to fly.
 
NZ6
Posts: 967
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:01 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ have been changing over the last several years, with JV’s with SQ/CX/UA etc. A fleet of 78Js can cover daily year round to HKG/SIN/NRT with additional frequencies operated by 789s or JV partners, like SIN now NZ run 2 daily in NS and I’d see HKG going the same way.

Do NZ need 300+ seats into GRU/NYC? That’s a lot of capacity when a code 3 789 would carry 250 max and allow for more frequency.

The 359 has always been and still is the most closest replacement to the 77E as an individual aircraft, how about though in an airlines overall fleet, network planning etc.


This raises some great points. The 78J in its current design is perfect for Asia.
Outside of LAX, almost all traditional 772 routes have been flown by either the 789 or 77W recently (SIN, HKG, TYO, PPT, HNL, PER) and I believe YVR is better suited to the 789 too.

A scenario based on if NZ went for a 787 order...

- could you see all SFO/LAX operated by the 77W
- could you see NZ look to operate into HNL, PPT, IAH, ORD, NYC, YVR with a code 1, 2 and or 3 version of the 789 with improved frequency?
- potential to see SIN/HKG/TYO operated by a 78J

Based on 78J performance 77W replaced by the 778 or more 78J as the business model continues to be focused on direct city parings with frequency over hub/capacity flying.

There are issues with this, obviously having smaller capacity means you'll need more frames to operate all routes more frequently, therefore meaning a larger fleet or potentially under serving markets allowing competition etc.

Don't take this scenario as an indication it's going Boeing's way, I could write something very similar for Airbus and as you say, the A359 is the closest replacement to what the 772 offers but highlighting why it COULD go the 787 way.
 
tu2130
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:41 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:05 pm

Despite spotting a 78J on the tracker to Asia but does Air New Zealand have any updates on The 777-200 and the 777-300s replacements as that will be set in June when they announce it.
Air New Zealand. Proud to fly.
 
NZ6
Posts: 967
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:09 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
Also NZ runs a rather high proportion of belly freight for a passenger airline


Is one of the greatest urban myths out there? While I won't dispute how much they carry, ultimately what matters is how much it's worth to the airline.

Last financial year, NZ's operating passenger revenue was $4,679M while cargo revenue was $370m so just 8% of the passenger revenue. I think the first step is getting the passenger deck right as that's where the vast majority of your revenue is generated. While that cargo revenue is critical to some routes, it's certainly not the highest priority when shopping for a new plane.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/Air ... esults.pdf
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1154
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:31 pm

Hi Everybody

just a fun game for those of you who keep a log: Which New Zealand registered aircraft have you flown the most on, how many times, and what city pairs? I discount general aviation aircraft for this one, since anybody who has a PPL usually has lots of flights on just one or two aircraft (mine were ZK-EOJ and ZK-ETS). I start off:

ZK-OKC (8)

20JUN06 AKL-SIN
06FEB08 AKL-KIX
21JUN10 MEL-AKL
18MAY11 YVR-AKL
04DEC11 NRT-AKL
18MAR12 AKL-BNE
05SEP12 AKL-PER
09JUN17 AKL-YVR

ZK-NCL (7)

09MAY08 AKL-NAN
12MAY08 NAN-AKL
15FEB10 HNL-AKL
26APR12 SYD-AKL
17JUN12 NRT-AKL
13NOV12 SYD-AKL
24OCT13 AKL-PVG

ZK-OKE (6)

12MAY09 LHR-HKG
13MAY09 HKG-AKL
22MAR11 AKL-SFO
04AUG14 AKL-HKG
11AUG14 HKG-AKL
15OCT15 HKG-AKL

Any funny enough, one of the newest aircraft (ZK-NZG) is next on my list...

I have always been intrigued to see how many times frequent travellers are on the very same aircraft. And I am also always torn when I see the aircraft pull up at the gate: Do I prefer a new rego, or is it cool to be on the same aircraft many times again?

Cheers
micha
 
325i
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2017 2:01 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:33 pm

Greetings Folks, in my humble opinion I suspect NZ76 has the correct assumption. Cheers 325i.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1332
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:47 pm

NZ6 wrote:
The 78J in its current design is perfect for Asia.

. . . assuming that NZ have ditched its stated strategy of putting frequency into Asia (2x daily on key routes was foreshadowed to make for better fleet utilisation on flights around 12 hr or more) as opposed to just increasing capacity. Hence why I think that the order will be for 789s with 78Js on option, giving Boeing time to improve the range before having to commit. But not for Asia, for the US.

Has there been any hint that NZ would like to use larger aircraft on Asia, or is it just an A-net rumour that becomes “truth” by repetition? Not getting at you, NZ6 - everyone seems to be quoting this as if it was fact, but is it?

NZ6 wrote:
A scenario based on if NZ went for a 787 order...

- could you see all SFO/LAX operated by the 77W
- could you see NZ look to operate into HNL, PPT, IAH, ORD, NYC, YVR with a code 1, 2 and or 3 version of the 789 with improved frequency?
- potential to see SIN/HKG/TYO operated by a 78J

Based on 78J performance 77W replaced by the 778 or more 78J as the business model continues to be focused on direct city parings with frequency over hub/capacity flying.

Yes, I could see this, though I’d see a 78J order as being contingent on being capable of AKL-LAX/SFO as a future 77W replacement rather than as extra capacity for Asia.

As for the discussion about belly cargo and premium demand on ULH services, I’ve the following points:

1. ULH services by their nature are fuel-hungry because of the need to carry fuel for the last few thousand km many thousands of km just to get to that point. Almost all ULH services as a consequence do have a higher premium config to try to recoup these extra fuel costs. I saw an analysis once that showed there were significantly lower costs flying AKL-LAX-EWR compared with AKL-EWR nonstop, for example. So I would fully expect that if the 789 is used to EWR the carrier would want to focus on getting the most premium bums on seats that it can. A Config 3 789 may well be a better response in the overall fleet analysis rather than adding a new aircraft type (the A350). Much though my heart would like to see the A350 in NZ colours.

2. Re belly cargo on EWR: right now there are no EWR flights and therefore no belly cargo being carried except via other ports. There’s no market that they are having to turn away by using an aircraft that can’t carry much over ULH routes that they can’t continue to carry by their existing ops. I doubt very much that any ULH route has been designed with belly cargo front of mind.

In my ideal scenario NZ would have a one-type LH fleet - the A350 in its two variants. But in the real world the 789 is already in the fleet, so I think that the most likely outcome is an all-787 fleet with the -9 and -10. The only thing that would change this for me is the question of the 78J’s range - could it reach LAX with some -ER tweaks? How likely is such a version or sufficient improvement in the base aircraft?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6726
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 04, 2019 12:17 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ have been changing over the last several years, with JV’s with SQ/CX/UA etc. A fleet of 78Js can cover daily year round to HKG/SIN/NRT with additional frequencies operated by 789s or JV partners, like SIN now NZ run 2 daily in NS and I’d see HKG going the same way.

Do NZ need 300+ seats into GRU/NYC? That’s a lot of capacity when a code 3 789 would carry 250 max and allow for more frequency.

The 359 has always been and still is the most closest replacement to the 77E as an individual aircraft, how about though in an airlines overall fleet, network planning etc.


This raises some great points. The 78J in its current design is perfect for Asia.
Outside of LAX, almost all traditional 772 routes have been flown by either the 789 or 77W recently (SIN, HKG, TYO, PPT, HNL, PER) and I believe YVR is better suited to the 789 too.

A scenario based on if NZ went for a 787 order...

- could you see all SFO/LAX operated by the 77W
- could you see NZ look to operate into HNL, PPT, IAH, ORD, NYC, YVR with a code 1, 2 and or 3 version of the 789 with improved frequency?
- potential to see SIN/HKG/TYO operated by a 78J

Based on 78J performance 77W replaced by the 778 or more 78J as the business model continues to be focused on direct city parings with frequency over hub/capacity flying.

There are issues with this, obviously having smaller capacity means you'll need more frames to operate all routes more frequently, therefore meaning a larger fleet or potentially under serving markets allowing competition etc.

Don't take this scenario as an indication it's going Boeing's way, I could write something very similar for Airbus and as you say, the A359 is the closest replacement to what the 772 offers but highlighting why it COULD go the 787 way.


I would be less to believe there will be a 78JER, despite all this talk of the landing gear being maxed out, same with the 789, there will be increases and PIPs.

More JV capacity even into LAX in NW if required with UA, NZ can still run 2 daily services, maybe 3 if required rather than UA operating.

Would they need 3 789 configurations? Maybe a ULH one to IAH/ORD/EWR/GRU and a code 1.5 between the current 2 configurations with say 24J 28W 227Y or something to cover EZE/TPE/KIX/ICN/PVG/ HNL/PER/YVR etc and 78Js to LAX/LHR/SFO/HKG/SIN/NRT etc with additional 789s where required.

More LAX/SFO etc in NS with those frames going to HKg/SIN/NRT etc as additional services in NW.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6726
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 04, 2019 12:20 am

tu2130 wrote:
Despite spotting a 78J on the tracker to Asia but does Air New Zealand have any updates on The 777-200 and the 777-300s replacements as that will be set in June when they announce it.


What do you mean you saw a 78J on the tracker to Asia? An SQ bird or something flying within Asia?

772 replacement should be announced very soon meant to be by end of FY19 which ends in June. 77W replacement is unlikely to be officially announced at the same time but we should get a good idea of what will replace them by what replaces the 772.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 8

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos