Waterbomber2
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:15 pm

enilria wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable.

That is a totally non-sensical statement that flies in the face of economics across the industry. Frequency always generate better revenue results (equalizing for differences in connections on different flights and undesirable flight times like 2am departures) than the same seats operated on fewer flights until you get down to aircraft sizes that people avoid like small RJs and turboprops. This is the reason that almost nobody bought the A380. Frequency actually wins almost every time. Not the reverse. LOL
xwb777 wrote:
The airline will be launching new 'fifth' freedom routes to the U.S.

This is highly interesting. I think this has less to do with generating traffic en route and more to do with being able to continue growing. It's not unlike Norwegian's strategy. I'm not sure I totally buy into it, but this implies they have found some degree of success in the few they now operate.
Revelation wrote:
I think the A380 drop off will be swifter than many predict:

I agree. I think they will start shrinking the fleet fair quickly. I still think the wind down is probably most of two decades, but I could see them cutting the fleet by more than half in 10 years.



With all the joint ventures and codeshares available, frequency is already covered on all the major routes.
Segmenting that frequency even more would not achieve any growth, but rather just increase costs or decrease efficiency.

Here is an example of the LHR-SYD and LHR-TYO route on a random day in June.
If you unroll the "longer or more expensive flights" menu, you can find a departure every 30 minutes throughout the day, and even every 5 minutes at the most desirables times of day.

https://www.google.com/flights?hl=en&gl ... 4;sd:1;t:f
https://www.google.com/flights?hl=en&gl ... 4;sd:1;t:f

Offering even more frequencies in such markets is pretty useless.
The final differentiation is on price, value or product or any combination of those.
The airlines that can differentiate themselves the most will have an edge in the market and the A380 is an exceptional aircraft that enables to differentiate oneself.

Or did you think that EK would have become world's largest long haul airline in the world if they had relied solely on B77W's?
If EK didn't have the A380's, they would have gone the way of EY by now.
The A380 gives them the mass to sustain their sluggish operation.

The article reads more like how EK is going to survive without the A380?
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
We were all wondering at what point EK's network would no longer absorb A380s, and we've found it at around 109 frames or so.

I think the A380 drop off will be swifter than many predict:
    :arrow: EK's profits are already down so the pressure is on to do better
    :arrow: RR's earlier PIPs came up short and they will not do any more PIPs
    :arrow: EK will be getting the first 777X production models off the line
    :arrow: EK will be getting A350 and A330neo with a generation newer engine tech
    :arrow: EK's competitors have been rapidly moving to 787 and 777x and A350 and A330neo
    :arrow: Vendors will start jacking up the price of A380 consumables as the production line winds down

They'll probably shrink down to a few of the newest models to service the trunk routes, and everything else will migrate to 777x and below.

They really have no choice, they are under a lot of competitive pressure and everything is leased so there is no advantage to keeping older airplanes in the fleet.

This. A sensible rebuttal to the congestion argument that seems prevalent throughout this thread. I wouldn't be surprised if physical (LHR, AMS) or artificial/ political (YYZ, China) slot constraints made some of these routes among the last to have the A380s still plying them. This raises important questions of what happens when the A380s are eventually gone though.
    :arrow: Does EK have the capacity/space to build more banks at DXB/DWC? Part of the connection model it has right now derives from the huge volume from the current 777/A380 fleet. With the average number of seats in the fleet decreasing, what happens to existing banks? Are they still able to be profitably filled?

    :arrow: What is the replacement for the 615-seater two-class A380s?

    :arrow: EK is adding premium economy starting in 2020, which means average seat count in the fleet will go down further. This compounds the problem with building viable banks, but does help RASM? Does EK then move to a higher-RASM, boutique-airline model (like Oman Air or the new Gulf Air), but at a bigger scale? And if so, how does this play out with Dubai's push at becoming a viable O&D city?

    :arrow: Does FZ move to higher-capacity aircraft (say 737-10 or NMA) to help out EK in terms of passenger volume?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:25 pm

NeBaNi wrote:
Revelation wrote:
We were all wondering at what point EK's network would no longer absorb A380s, and we've found it at around 109 frames or so.

I think the A380 drop off will be swifter than many predict:
    :arrow: EK's profits are already down so the pressure is on to do better
    :arrow: RR's earlier PIPs came up short and they will not do any more PIPs
    :arrow: EK will be getting the first 777X production models off the line
    :arrow: EK will be getting A350 and A330neo with a generation newer engine tech
    :arrow: EK's competitors have been rapidly moving to 787 and 777x and A350 and A330neo
    :arrow: Vendors will start jacking up the price of A380 consumables as the production line winds down

They'll probably shrink down to a few of the newest models to service the trunk routes, and everything else will migrate to 777x and below.

They really have no choice, they are under a lot of competitive pressure and everything is leased so there is no advantage to keeping older airplanes in the fleet.

This. A sensible rebuttal to the congestion argument that seems prevalent throughout this thread. I wouldn't be surprised if physical (LHR, AMS) or artificial/ political (YYZ, China) slot constraints made some of these routes among the last to have the A380s still plying them. This raises important questions of what happens when the A380s are eventually gone though.
    :arrow: Does EK have the capacity/space to build more banks at DXB/DWC? Part of the connection model it has right now derives from the huge volume from the current 777/A380 fleet. With the average number of seats in the fleet decreasing, what happens to existing banks? Are they still able to be profitably filled?

    :arrow: What is the replacement for the 615-seater two-class A380s?

    :arrow: EK is adding premium economy starting in 2020, which means average seat count in the fleet will go down further. This compounds the problem with building viable banks, but does help RASM? Does EK then move to a higher-RASM, boutique-airline model (like Oman Air or the new Gulf Air), but at a bigger scale? And if so, how does this play out with Dubai's push at becoming a viable O&D city?

    :arrow: Does FZ move to higher-capacity aircraft (say 737-10 or NMA) to help out EK in terms of passenger volume?


The fact is that EK is a sitting duck without the mass brought by the A380's. They'll vanish in the myriad of options offered by the numerous airlines, lead by the aggressively expanding Chinese carriers.
With a smaller fleet of A380's, they'll be forced to trim and become efficient if they want to stay sustainable/viable even with mass subsidies.

In addition, with narrowbodies like the A320neo coming within range of EU-DXB, enabling long thin sectors to be flown without major risk, there is a risk that the masses of bilaterals the UAE has amassed will be used against them by competitors working in tandem to flood Dubai's airports and airspace.

The reality is that if you look at the current state of affairs, the most stable and profitable airlines have a major and strong hub, from where they operate both frequencies and volume.
Then you have second tier hubs that are breaking even despite relatively cheap fuel.
Airlines operating routes of over 3 hours flying without major feed or sales network (like TUI Group) at either end are struggling to stay afloat.
Of course you have politically mismanaged airlines like AF or AZ where despite offering frequencies using B787/A330/B777's from major destination cities, they can't make it work.

I think that the keyword is value. Value is what has brought EK where it is today. Value is how EK fills aircraft on sectors like MXP-JFK, with feed only at the JFK end.
TK's business class and Istanbul lounges are packed with businessmen flying one-stop because they offer better value than non-stop options.
This is the reality, not what analysts are saying right and left without going to the bottom of consumer behavior.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:48 pm

So this likely means we are going to see A380s returned steadily over the 2020s, and retreating slowly into the most heavily slot-constrained routes.

Given that those are also the most premium routes (for the most part), I will admit to more than a bit of curiosity about how EK will approach the issue of hard product. Will they update A380 cabins in the 2020s to match whatever they are putting in a newly delivered A350 or 777-8 in 2025? Will they just stick with the current product, perhaps at the cost of some premium pricing power?
 
airlinermiami
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:50 pm

I think a fifth freedom route that should work well is this one, there is not currently service between Madrid and Houston.
Dubai-Madrid-Houston

May be : Madrid to New York-Newark, Chicago, Washington, Seattle and San Francisco

Madrid has tons of capacity to grow
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:08 pm

dmstorm22 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

The continued thread of EK will help EU airports expand.

Lightsaber


Assume you meant threat, but yes this is a great point.

Also can expand it to the increasing population with access ($$) to air travel is transitioning from helping EK to potentially hurting it.

In early growth days, the expanded pop in places like India, Africa, ME, all got pushed through ME3 because of the scope of their network.

However, we are reaching the point where the demand for travel in these countries can support direct O&D flights - as we see with the growth of airlines in Africa, the increasing ability for places to offer non-stop flights into India, etc.

ME3 will have their place because of its inherent geographical advantage, but they were winning a lot of traffic essentially due to its scale was so superior to smaller locations, but those smaller locations are just starting to have the economic base to support any sort of O&D international network.

Scale is an important point.

EK, as we know, cannot further (significantly) grow scale at DXB. Thus as you noted, as the prior spoke points grow (gain scale) they will bypass. Enabled by lower cost per flight aircraft.

If India would abolish the fuel taxes and build excess capacity at their airports, they would become the obvious hubbing airports. But a 30% tax on 40% of the cost... That is more than EK's profit.

A Navi Mumbai or Navi Delhi airport could bypass EK if the proper accommodation for premium passengers (lounges, service) and coach (terminal space, shopping, restaurants).

We all know what EK did. Think back to when DXB was the grand open, glitzy, shopping mall of an airport. Travelers wanted to hub their for the food and drinks. Now over crowded. I haven't had a friend brag about the Dubai hubbing experience in years. Where is that open terminal with amenities in India? Sigh.. I repeat myself and that new airport is ISL. Not so much for India traffic, but it will grow.

As will ADD (that needs to improve the experience).

EK is really no longer the boogyman. It grows, at best, with regional economic growth once the demand from the Jet shutdown is met.

I have worse commentary for the loss making "me too" regional competition, but that quickly goes off thread. It is sufficient to say the grand opportunity of a ME hub is fading. There still must be hubs in the ME. One legacy and one LCC is all that is required.

Shame EY does go LCC with J to thrive. But off topic.

Lightsaber
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ptcflyer
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:43 pm

spinotter wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.


From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.


Butwe would rather focus on a delivery truck that spends too much time idling with engine running. Or we like to feel good about our Prius while still taking vacations around the world. Just look at the growth in the number of aircraft that have been launched and are flying intercontinental routes. Staggering. And the 10-20 percent efficiencies do little to compensate for the huge growth of the number of planes in the skies. I will never take climate change investments or calls for more taxes seriously as long as we continue to expand our transportation around the globe. All of the trillion dollar proposals will do squat to change anything with the climate. Either you are a climate change denier or a climate change doomdayer.... either way... with our love to move around the globe with nobody attempting to limit that movement.....there isn't much we can do about climate change. PERIOD. The climate change advocates just want power without going to the root cause of the perceived problem.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:49 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
You are deeply, deeply in denial. First Airbus kills the A380 program. Next the biggest operator says they're basing route planning without 380s - killing the idea that (many, anyway) of recently-delivered A380s will happily be flying another 20 years.


That doesn't make sense. There aren't going to be many more A380. How could they make a long term plan to use an aircraft that is no longer available !!
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 5:55 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
since 767 TATL ETOPS twenty-four years ago.

34yrs. :smile:


Galwayman wrote:
IMHO EK need something like the A321LR to feed the hub from smaller European cities (Belfast, Cardif, Eindhoven etc ) in the way that TK can sustain multiple 737 flights to every decent sized market within Europe .... a right size fleet of A321LR/A330/A350 with a focus on premium economy markets of 6 hours plus is a very credible possible strategy route

That's essentially what FZ is for.


airlinermiami wrote:
there is not currently service between Madrid and Houston.

Because none of the strong/hubbed carriers in either market see a compelling need to offer it, despite their ability to easily do so. Why would EK?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 8:30 am

speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.

Self driving vehicles are going to have a great effect on the transportation landscape. This may be yet another layer of fragmentation from a travelers perspective. One would think that mostly would affect narrowbodies, but probably offset some demand at the big hubs too.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 8:40 am

enilria wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable.

That is a totally non-sensical statement that flies in the face of economics across the industry. Frequency always generate better revenue results (equalizing for differences in connections on different flights and undesirable flight times like 2am departures) than the same seats operated on fewer flights until you get down to aircraft sizes that people avoid like small RJs and turboprops. This is the reason that almost nobody bought the A380. Frequency actually wins almost every time. Not the reverse. LOL

While I generally agree with your line of thinking, I do think that using short haul RJ traffic evolution to predict long haul is misguided as the dynamics of those markets are completely different. Just the time zone interaction on departure and arrival times (in both directions, see LHR-JNB or LHR-JFK market for instance) is limiting the window of commercialy acceptable flights to a fairly narrow time window.
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 8:46 am

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
spinotter wrote:
From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel.


Seriously ? :roll:
Way to derail a thread.


Since this is about the future development of a large long haul network, future developments in how society thinks about air travel is by no means derailing the thread.

It may come as a surprise to you, but in some parts of the world, growth of air travel is become more controversial by the day. Now I'm not claiming that is how air travel would or should become, but any sensible management team would at minimum take such factors into consideration for future planning purposes.

And yes, seriously, from a pure macro-ecological point of view, spinotter may have a point. But that is for a different thread and forum section.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 11:08 am

Emirates without A380?
So, it is now possible.
 
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keesje
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 11:20 am

2040?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 11:53 am

VV wrote:
Emirates without A380?
So, it is now possible.

It was always certain, the main question was when.

EK cancelling 39 frames was clearly a tipping point.

Many had those frames, along with the mooted 20+18 order, as the bridge to the future for the A380, but the bridge caught fire and burned.

TFA says:

Emirates dropped the A380 from its long-term plans after Airbus and engine maker Rolls-Royce Holdings declined to invest in the double-decker, leaving a choice of buying “the same aircraft” or walking away, Clark said.

And it seems to be more than walking away, given:

After establishing Dubai as the leading interchange for flights linking cities around the globe, Emirates is finding it tougher to find profitable new routes, especially with sluggish Gulf economies weighing on margins.

And:

While Dubai’s new Al Maktoum facility will have plenty of room for additional flights to make up for the eventual retirement of the A380, other hubs -- such as London Heathrow -- are more constrained with little room at present for extra services.

So, it seems their main bottleneck is slots at the other international mega-hubs.

It seems they already use A380s on these routes so there's nothing they can do short of buying more slots, since they can't find any new profitable routes to open.

It seems EK has transitioned from growth carrier to legacy carrier.
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EK77WNH
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 11:55 am

One of the discussion points is around doing more ‘5th Freedom’ flights to the U.S. The ones to JFK and EWR do well enough, Tim says, and I was wondering if they might do the same at BOS once their badly-needed Terminal E expansion comes on-line.
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slider
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 12:07 pm

ptcflyer wrote:
spinotter wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.


From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.


Butwe would rather focus on a delivery truck that spends too much time idling with engine running. Or we like to feel good about our Prius while still taking vacations around the world. Just look at the growth in the number of aircraft that have been launched and are flying intercontinental routes. Staggering. And the 10-20 percent efficiencies do little to compensate for the huge growth of the number of planes in the skies. I will never take climate change investments or calls for more taxes seriously as long as we continue to expand our transportation around the globe. All of the trillion dollar proposals will do squat to change anything with the climate. Either you are a climate change denier or a climate change doomdayer.... either way... with our love to move around the globe with nobody attempting to limit that movement.....there isn't much we can do about climate change. PERIOD. The climate change advocates just want power without going to the root cause of the perceived problem.


Spoken like a true zealot. Is there room for a rational compromise position here, pray tell? Air travel has never been cleaner, more plentiful, cheaper, to unite literally the people of the entire globe. And most of the pollution at airports is landside anyhow. Let me ask you, PTC, do you drive a car? Then you're a hypocrite. There is actually an intellectually defensible position that one can be a conservationist, have a legitimate stance on balancing the environment and the economy, and not have to choose between some fallacious binary construct you dictate.



On the topic of the A380, well, that was a fun experiment.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 12:10 pm

xwb777 wrote:
such as London Heathrow - are more constrained with little room at present for extra services.


Wait a minute, wasn't this the initial justification for VLAs.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 12:28 pm

EK77WNH wrote:
One of the discussion points is around doing more ‘5th Freedom’ flights to the U.S. The ones to JFK and EWR do well enough, Tim says, and I was wondering if they might do the same at BOS once their badly-needed Terminal E expansion comes on-line.


As we know, BOS-Europe is very seasonal and EK has just started to adjust routes seasonally (i.e A380 to BOS in Summer and Dec/Jan).

BOS-ATH, the largest unserved Transatlantic route from BOS, wouldn't work in the winter even with feed from B6 in BOS and A3 feed in ATH. They could run it seasonally but what could be cut in the summer? HKT and MLE come to mind since its the rainy/monsoon season but should EK do heavy maintenance on planes during off peak times like AA does in late Sept Oct with trimming Caribbean.

I think anything 5th freedom has to be large O+D (to Europe) and/or larger partner operation (B6 or AS). That leaves - JFK/EWR, ORD, BOS, LAX, FLL/MIA, SFO, SEA as the USA spots for these flights.
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 3:37 pm

slider wrote:
ptcflyer wrote:
spinotter wrote:

From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.


Butwe would rather focus on a delivery truck that spends too much time idling with engine running. Or we like to feel good about our Prius while still taking vacations around the world. Just look at the growth in the number of aircraft that have been launched and are flying intercontinental routes. Staggering. And the 10-20 percent efficiencies do little to compensate for the huge growth of the number of planes in the skies. I will never take climate change investments or calls for more taxes seriously as long as we continue to expand our transportation around the globe. All of the trillion dollar proposals will do squat to change anything with the climate. Either you are a climate change denier or a climate change doomdayer.... either way... with our love to move around the globe with nobody attempting to limit that movement.....there isn't much we can do about climate change. PERIOD. The climate change advocates just want power without going to the root cause of the perceived problem.


Spoken like a true zealot. Is there room for a rational compromise position here, pray tell? Air travel has never been cleaner, more plentiful, cheaper, to unite literally the people of the entire globe. And most of the pollution at airports is landside anyhow. Let me ask you, PTC, do you drive a car? Then you're a hypocrite. There is actually an intellectually defensible position that one can be a conservationist, have a legitimate stance on balancing the environment and the economy, and not have to choose between some fallacious binary construct you dictate.



On the topic of the A380, well, that was a fun experiment.


Rational compromise, you ask? No, there is no room for rational compromise, but the human race is destroying the planet anyway, and it's very sad. But I console myself by remembering that there are 100 hundred million galaxies and 100 hundred million stars is each galaxy, and they can't all be f*cking up as much as we are, can they? And for 30 pieces of silver and contrails all over the world. And I do not use any motorized vehicle whatsover. Everywhere I go I go by bicycle. And so could you, with the right way of living!
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 4:02 pm

slider wrote:
ptcflyer wrote:
spinotter wrote:

From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.


Butwe would rather focus on a delivery truck that spends too much time idling with engine running. Or we like to feel good about our Prius while still taking vacations around the world. Just look at the growth in the number of aircraft that have been launched and are flying intercontinental routes. Staggering. And the 10-20 percent efficiencies do little to compensate for the huge growth of the number of planes in the skies. I will never take climate change investments or calls for more taxes seriously as long as we continue to expand our transportation around the globe. All of the trillion dollar proposals will do squat to change anything with the climate. Either you are a climate change denier or a climate change doomdayer.... either way... with our love to move around the globe with nobody attempting to limit that movement.....there isn't much we can do about climate change. PERIOD. The climate change advocates just want power without going to the root cause of the perceived problem.


Spoken like a true zealot. Is there room for a rational compromise position here, pray tell? Air travel has never been cleaner, more plentiful, cheaper, to unite literally the people of the entire globe. And most of the pollution at airports is landside anyhow. Let me ask you, PTC, do you drive a car? Then you're a hypocrite. There is actually an intellectually defensible position that one can be a conservationist, have a legitimate stance on balancing the environment and the economy, and not have to choose between some fallacious binary construct you dictate.

On the topic of the A380, well, that was a fun experiment.


A few years back I compared a 737ng SEA-LAX flight to a Prius with 2 passengers driving. Basically the same gas used, but didn't consider the night lodging nor the extra meals or cost of time to drive it. It is cheaper to fly and rent a car for 4 days there than drive yourself down there.

I wonder about those that are on an airline fan site proclaiming that we must ban airline travel.
 
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spinotter
Posts: 453
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 4:09 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
slider wrote:
ptcflyer wrote:

Butwe would rather focus on a delivery truck that spends too much time idling with engine running. Or we like to feel good about our Prius while still taking vacations around the world. Just look at the growth in the number of aircraft that have been launched and are flying intercontinental routes. Staggering. And the 10-20 percent efficiencies do little to compensate for the huge growth of the number of planes in the skies. I will never take climate change investments or calls for more taxes seriously as long as we continue to expand our transportation around the globe. All of the trillion dollar proposals will do squat to change anything with the climate. Either you are a climate change denier or a climate change doomdayer.... either way... with our love to move around the globe with nobody attempting to limit that movement.....there isn't much we can do about climate change. PERIOD. The climate change advocates just want power without going to the root cause of the perceived problem.


Spoken like a true zealot. Is there room for a rational compromise position here, pray tell? Air travel has never been cleaner, more plentiful, cheaper, to unite literally the people of the entire globe. And most of the pollution at airports is landside anyhow. Let me ask you, PTC, do you drive a car? Then you're a hypocrite. There is actually an intellectually defensible position that one can be a conservationist, have a legitimate stance on balancing the environment and the economy, and not have to choose between some fallacious binary construct you dictate.

On the topic of the A380, well, that was a fun experiment.


A few years back I compared a 737ng SEA-LAX flight to a Prius with 2 passengers driving. Basically the same gas used, but didn't consider the night lodging nor the extra meals or cost of time to drive it. It is cheaper to fly and rent a car for 4 days there than drive yourself down there.

I wonder about those that are on an airline fan site proclaiming that we must ban airline travel.


Yes, but perilous times call for deep changes in our way of life, don't you agree? If an oracle told you that all human life would be gone in 200 years, the way we are going, what changes would you be willing to introduce into your life? We can't just keep farting CO2 and other noxious gases into our one and only atmosphere, right?
 
musman9853
Posts: 643
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 4:22 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
slider wrote:
ptcflyer wrote:

Butwe would rather focus on a delivery truck that spends too much time idling with engine running. Or we like to feel good about our Prius while still taking vacations around the world. Just look at the growth in the number of aircraft that have been launched and are flying intercontinental routes. Staggering. And the 10-20 percent efficiencies do little to compensate for the huge growth of the number of planes in the skies. I will never take climate change investments or calls for more taxes seriously as long as we continue to expand our transportation around the globe. All of the trillion dollar proposals will do squat to change anything with the climate. Either you are a climate change denier or a climate change doomdayer.... either way... with our love to move around the globe with nobody attempting to limit that movement.....there isn't much we can do about climate change. PERIOD. The climate change advocates just want power without going to the root cause of the perceived problem.


Spoken like a true zealot. Is there room for a rational compromise position here, pray tell? Air travel has never been cleaner, more plentiful, cheaper, to unite literally the people of the entire globe. And most of the pollution at airports is landside anyhow. Let me ask you, PTC, do you drive a car? Then you're a hypocrite. There is actually an intellectually defensible position that one can be a conservationist, have a legitimate stance on balancing the environment and the economy, and not have to choose between some fallacious binary construct you dictate.

On the topic of the A380, well, that was a fun experiment.


A few years back I compared a 737ng SEA-LAX flight to a Prius with 2 passengers driving. Basically the same gas used, but didn't consider the night lodging nor the extra meals or cost of time to drive it. It is cheaper to fly and rent a car for 4 days there than drive yourself down there.

I wonder about those that are on an airline fan site proclaiming that we must ban airline travel.


yeah mpg/seat is absurdly good for air travel. the 787-9 has a fuel burn of about 5600kg/h, or about 12.3k lbs/hr. a gallon of gas weighs about 6lbs, so every hour burns about 2k gallons of gas. But then you divide that by 300 seats, and you get about 7 gallons per seat/ per hour. at mach .85, or 650 mph, that's about 93 mpg/seat/hr. Obviously these are very rough calculations, and the fuel burn changes a lot depending on the length of the sector etc but it does show that modern air travel is an incredibly efficient method of travel.

of course we do have to do everything in our power to lower emissions, but since the airline industry is already trying to cut fuel costs as much as possible, it's better imo to look at other industries like farming, manufacturing, and cars as better sources of reducing emissions.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
speedbird52
Posts: 703
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:30 am

Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 4:36 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
slider wrote:
ptcflyer wrote:

Butwe would rather focus on a delivery truck that spends too much time idling with engine running. Or we like to feel good about our Prius while still taking vacations around the world. Just look at the growth in the number of aircraft that have been launched and are flying intercontinental routes. Staggering. And the 10-20 percent efficiencies do little to compensate for the huge growth of the number of planes in the skies. I will never take climate change investments or calls for more taxes seriously as long as we continue to expand our transportation around the globe. All of the trillion dollar proposals will do squat to change anything with the climate. Either you are a climate change denier or a climate change doomdayer.... either way... with our love to move around the globe with nobody attempting to limit that movement.....there isn't much we can do about climate change. PERIOD. The climate change advocates just want power without going to the root cause of the perceived problem.


Spoken like a true zealot. Is there room for a rational compromise position here, pray tell? Air travel has never been cleaner, more plentiful, cheaper, to unite literally the people of the entire globe. And most of the pollution at airports is landside anyhow. Let me ask you, PTC, do you drive a car? Then you're a hypocrite. There is actually an intellectually defensible position that one can be a conservationist, have a legitimate stance on balancing the environment and the economy, and not have to choose between some fallacious binary construct you dictate.

On the topic of the A380, well, that was a fun experiment.


A few years back I compared a 737ng SEA-LAX flight to a Prius with 2 passengers driving. Basically the same gas used, but didn't consider the night lodging nor the extra meals or cost of time to drive it. It is cheaper to fly and rent a car for 4 days there than drive yourself down there.

I wonder about those that are on an airline fan site proclaiming that we must ban airline travel.

I had the impression spinotter was making fun of climate activists
 
dc10lover
Posts: 1531
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:11 pm

Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 4:59 pm

spinotter wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.


From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.

CO2 is just as IMPORTANT as OXYGEN.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 453
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 6:03 pm

dc10lover wrote:
spinotter wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.


From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.

CO2 is just as IMPORTANT as OXYGEN.


Yes, absolutely. But at its current level only. Nitrogen is 78% of the atmosphere, oxygen 20-21%, and the rest is CO2 and the other natural and anthropogenic gases in our current atmosphere. You would not want 21% CO2, I can assure you. Venus. So does anyone really care about what the human race is doing to the earth, or are we all just short-term profit and kill the earth? That is the question that will be answered in the next few centuries.
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 9257
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 6:12 pm

PW100 wrote:
enilria wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable.

That is a totally non-sensical statement that flies in the face of economics across the industry. Frequency always generate better revenue results (equalizing for differences in connections on different flights and undesirable flight times like 2am departures) than the same seats operated on fewer flights until you get down to aircraft sizes that people avoid like small RJs and turboprops. This is the reason that almost nobody bought the A380. Frequency actually wins almost every time. Not the reverse. LOL

While I generally agree with your line of thinking, I do think that using short haul RJ traffic evolution to predict long haul is misguided as the dynamics of those markets are completely different. Just the time zone interaction on departure and arrival times (in both directions, see LHR-JNB or LHR-JFK market for instance) is limiting the window of commercialy acceptable flights to a fairly narrow time window.

I explicitly said "until you get down to aircraft sizes that people avoid like small RJs", so not clear how you brought up a point I had just provided as an exception with a reason.

QSI models forecast traffic at virtually every airline in the world and are created by doing a regression of passenger attractors including, among other things, frequency. Frequency is given a considerable advantage as a result of that regression. It's mathematically provable that people want as much time flexibility as possible. Conversely, to say the opposite is to say that people only wanted black Model Ts.
 
Sokes
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 8:14 pm

ltbewr wrote:
The last major world recession was in 2008. We may be overdue for another, triggered by disruptions and rising oil prices, Brexit and who knows what. Demand for air travel will flatten out for several years and that could mean less need for all of EK's 380's.

Interest and interest on interest reminds of the story of the chess board: 1 rice corn on the first field and then doubling the amount of rice corns for each further field. It's inherent unstable. Therefore the history of credit is a history of credit default.
But now inflation is higher than interests. It's a credit default in small steps. Maybe that's inherent stable?
Or maybe we head for catastrophy as cheap money leads to stupid investments?
It's a historical first. I find it rather unpredictable.
Moreover governance is improving in some poor countries. Again: too many factors, can't predict.
But maybe Emirates can. At any rate they have to bet one side or the other.
Did I go off topic?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17274
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Wed May 01, 2019 8:36 pm

Topic is no longer about EK A380s. Please take off topic discussions to non-av or an aviation specific thread.
You know nothing John Snow.

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