caliboy93
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AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:06 pm

Since AA TATL has finally arrived to PHX, can the same be said for AA TPAC to Tokyo from PHX?
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:28 pm

I know there are naysayers that know what they are saying, like an elf with a similar name to mine, but I do believe this route will happen eventually. AA isnt as ambitious as UA so I'd venture out to say JL is more likely for tgis route.
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Ishrion
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:32 pm

Eventually in the next couple of years it'll seem likely. PHX-Asia doesn't seem to be a priority for AA considering they applied for LAS-HND over PHX.
JL could end up using their HND slots to launch service on their metal though. We'll have to see.
 
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Veigar
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:34 pm

I think AA is focusing on trying to get LAS-HND first.
 
winginit
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:49 pm

First and foremost, we had a thread on this exact topic nine months ago that's worth reading through. The basic conclusion was no, it ain't happening anytime soon.

Veigar wrote:
I think AA is focusing on trying to get LAS-HND first.


Call me a pessimist, but I don't see PHX-TYO happening in the next five years at least, and the above is I think telling as to the unlikelihood of it happening.

Unless things are rapidly right-sized, which the US industry has historically been woefully bad at, this new glut of TPAC capacity that's going to come online in 2020 to HND is going to further depress what are already depressed yields no?

The fact that AA didn't even list PHX-HND as a fifth or sixth preference in their bid is in and of itself telling, but on top of that if there were a profitable business case for the route I think that'll evaporate in 2020 on account of the aforementioned yield issue and further cost pressures on the fuel side.
 
Boof02671
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:21 am

Not going to happen, they didn’t apply for it they applied for Vegas
 
TheEuphorian
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:17 am

AA is probably more focused on serving every single TATL route from their hubs than starting a single TPAC flight from PHX.
 
jc2354
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:32 am

A few Months back when the C.E.S. (Consumer Electronics Show) was going on in Las Vegas, AA ran daily non-stops LAS-NRT-LAS for a period of about 3 weeks. I kept checking the loads to non-rev over, and the flights were booked full everyday. Granted it was period specific, but the market is there. At one time, both Northwest and JAL offered service LAS-NRT-LAS. Currently the only service to Asia is Korean Airlines and Hainan Airlines.
If not now, then when?
 
mop357
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:44 am

I don’t see PHX to NRT anytime soon. LAX and DFW are each an hour to hour and a half away and they both have 2 flights to Tokyo each. I think PHL to NRT is more likely.
 
PHLspecial
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:11 am

mop357 wrote:
I don’t see PHX to NRT anytime soon. LAX and DFW are each an hour to hour and a half away and they both have 2 flights to Tokyo each. I think PHL to NRT is more likely.


AA didn't even apply for the PHL to HND or NRT slot. So PHL has the same chance as PHX. Though PHL might have a chance with JL again the same as PHX. PHL also has the same leakage problem from JFK, EWR and IAD.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:31 am

jc2354 wrote:
A few Months back when the C.E.S. (Consumer Electronics Show) was going on in Las Vegas, AA ran daily non-stops LAS-NRT-LAS for a period of about 3 weeks. I kept checking the loads to non-rev over, and the flights were booked full everyday. Granted it was period specific, but the market is there. At one time, both Northwest and JAL offered service LAS-NRT-LAS. Currently the only service to Asia is Korean Airlines and Hainan Airlines.


I don't think airlines ever worried about filling up a plane to LAS from places like TYO. The problem with LAS is that it's a heavily leisure destination, and yields are not quite there to necessarily support the flight.
 
spacecadet
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:35 am

mop357 wrote:
I don’t see PHX to NRT anytime soon. LAX and DFW are each an hour to hour and a half away and they both have 2 flights to Tokyo each. I think PHL to NRT is more likely.


Huh? PHL is a lot closer to EWR (or even JFK) than PHX is to LAX or DFW. It also has a pretty stagnant population, whereas Phoenix is growing almost exponentially. (And it's already bigger than Philadelphia.)

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I am saying that the reasoning won't make any better sense if some airline tries to use it.
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PHLspecial
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:59 am

spacecadet wrote:
Huh? PHL is a lot closer to EWR (or even JFK) than PHX is to LAX or DFW. It also has a pretty stagnant population, whereas Phoenix is growing almost exponentially. (And it's already bigger than Philadelphia.)

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I am saying that the reasoning won't make any better sense if some airline tries to use it.


Relax both Philly and Phoenix still the same population size and HEY Philly is growing as well. The thing is JL or AA doesn't have a good enough O&D yet to award a flight. If JAL were to start service most likely the flights would start as 3x weekly seasonal service. Both cities needs more Japanese business ties to receive a flight.
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:02 am

I think in the next 5 to 10 years this route will either be launched by JL or AA. Phoenix is a boomtown with businesses moving in daily and a population that is growing more and more affluent by the year.

This all goes out the window though if AA gets tired of having three hubs within 3 hours of each other.
 
acentauri
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:43 am

spacecadet wrote:
mop357 wrote:
I don’t see PHX to NRT anytime soon. LAX and DFW are each an hour to hour and a half away and they both have 2 flights to Tokyo each. I think PHL to NRT is more likely.


Huh? PHL is a lot closer to EWR (or even JFK) than PHX is to LAX or DFW. It also has a pretty stagnant population, whereas Phoenix is growing almost exponentially. (And it's already bigger than Philadelphia.)

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I am saying that the reasoning won't make any better sense if some airline tries to use it.

Hub Population has little to do with network connectivity. Also, other than via OW partners, AA does not fly from any East Coast city, including NYC, BOS, MIA or DC to Tokyo. AA could easily compete with UA for East Coast connections to Tokyo via PHL, if they desired.

It's a bit difficult to understand why AA would over fly and reduce support for its existing Tokyo flights from 322nm distant LAX for a ? PHX-Tokyo non-stop. OTOH, PHL-NRT is less than 300nm further than DFW-NRT and PHL is centered in the 53M NE Megalopolis, with, as mentioned earlier, zero own metal flights to Tokyo..
 
TUSDawg23
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:27 am

This topic comes up frequently. I would be thrilled to have a PHX-NRT flight, but I don't think AA feels they can get good enough yields on the route, despite the fact I think the 787 would be the perfect plane for this route. Not sure what would entice Parker and company to pull the trigger. I
 
ATCtower
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:56 am

Sorry, AA likes east, UA likes west.

I too don’t see this as even a remote possibility anytime soon.

Sure AA has destinations out of DFW but their base isn’t exactly scratching for table scraps out of the west; they have bigger fish to fry out of better markets.
By reading the above post you waive all rights to be offended. If you do not like what you read, forget it.
 
ATCtower
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:57 am

Sorry, AA likes east, UA likes west.

I too don’t see this as even a remote possibility anytime soon.

Sure AA has destinations out of DFW but their base isn’t exactly scratching for table scraps out of the west; they have bigger fish to fry out of better markets.
By reading the above post you waive all rights to be offended. If you do not like what you read, forget it.
 
32andBelow
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:40 am

jc2354 wrote:
A few Months back when the C.E.S. (Consumer Electronics Show) was going on in Las Vegas, AA ran daily non-stops LAS-NRT-LAS for a period of about 3 weeks. I kept checking the loads to non-rev over, and the flights were booked full everyday. Granted it was period specific, but the market is there. At one time, both Northwest and JAL offered service LAS-NRT-LAS. Currently the only service to Asia is Korean Airlines and Hainan Airlines.

Yah during the largest electronics show in the USA from a country that makes a lot of the electronics. Come on man.
 
AntonioMartin
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:08 am

Been a pipe dream of ours here in Phoenix for a loooong while...

Back in the day America West had 747s to Japan...lasted about a year or so.

I'd say most people wouldnt care if the carrier was AA or JL or NH ir for that matter DL (they still hub at Tokyo, don't they?) but, as for me, MY pipe dream of PHX-TKY includes NH or JL only...I am after all, an aircraft spotter.

But it's not gonna happen unfortunately. At least, not soon.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:06 am

PHLspecial wrote:
Relax both Philly and Phoenix still the same population size


No, PHX is bigger.

https://www.philly.com/philly/news/penn ... rises.html
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:08 am

TWA772LR wrote:
I know there are naysayers that know what they are saying, like an elf with a similar name to mine,

If you're going to allude to someone, at least know what their actual stance is on the issue.

Such a route, like any other, won't exist until its utility exceeds the opportunity cost. As of now, there's very little (available to the public anyway) to indicate that that's the case for AA; doesn't mean it can't change. I wouldn't be surprised to see such a flight eventually, just not any time soon; especially with fuel costs rising, and with AA still being expansion mode at LAX.



EA CO AS wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
Relax both Philly and Phoenix still the same population size

No, PHX is bigger.
https://www.philly.com/philly/news/penn ... rises.html

You both have been here way long enough to know better than this kind of nonsense.

No one uses city proper in any regard for population stats in terms of aviation catchment, and yes PHL's is significant larger than PHX's.... not that that, in and of itself, directly correlates to much in terms of longhaul services.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
hz747300
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:39 am

I agree not within five years, we discuss this around once a year. Always nice to think about, but I think the 788 is the better equipment to test this route. I don't think AA would plop one on the PHX route, so it would be up to JL. My guess is though, there would need to be another leap. Sure PHX is growing, but by who, and what ties to Japan is that creating. The Vegas flight would have the Grand Canyon traffic I think too.
Keep on truckin'...
 
TC957
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:52 am

Could NRT - PHX be a route JAL have in mind for their upcoming Zipair LCC ?
 
PHLCVGAMTK
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:22 am

Right now, PHX-TYO O&D flyers have a choice of connecting in any of LAX, SAN, SFO, or SEA, or DFW if they don't mind the backtrack, all depending on load factors and therefore prices. AA is seeking to add LAS to that list. PHX will therefore only get a nonstop when there are enough connecting passengers to fill a plane from the ABQs and FATs (speaking generically of classes of O&D airport) of the AA domestic network, who would prefer connecting in PHX over connecting in LAX or DFW as they do today. I don't see that happening anytime soon. LAX isn't nearly a miserable enough transfer experience (by many accounts, LAX is downright pleasant), and PHX isn't that kind of spectacularly good, either.
 
LASlaugh
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:36 am

32andBelow wrote:
Yah during the largest electronics show in the USA from a country that makes a lot of the electronics. Come on man.


Las Vegas <> Tokyo is one of the largest unserved intl routes in the country. Obviously yields are sky high during CES, but the remainder of the year has good demand also.

In relation to Phoenix, I wonder if AA has the capability to organize a 1-stop direct PHX-LAS-HND? But where would the PHX 787s come from, since there's no crew base? I know LAS occasionally gets domestic 788 from DFW and PHL, is this also true with PHX?
 
Mat1776
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:03 am

spacecadet wrote:
Huh? PHL is a lot closer to EWR (or even JFK) than PHX is to LAX or DFW. It also has a pretty stagnant population, whereas Phoenix is growing almost exponentially. (And it's already bigger than Philadelphia.)

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I am saying that the reasoning won't make any better sense if some airline tries to use it.


One other question that should be asked besides the population size is "yes, but can the said population afford the long distance overseas travel?"

The GDP per capita for Philadelphia Metro Area (PA-NJ-DE-MD) was $63,519 in 2017.
The GDP per capita of Phoenix Metro Area (AZ) was $44,534 in 2017.
(ref. http://www.opendatanetwork.com)

Are there stronger business ties between Phoenix and Japan than those between Philadelphia and Japan to compensate for the significant difference in per capita GDP?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:56 am

32andBelow wrote:
jc2354 wrote:
A few Months back when the C.E.S. (Consumer Electronics Show) was going on in Las Vegas, AA ran daily non-stops LAS-NRT-LAS for a period of about 3 weeks. I kept checking the loads to non-rev over, and the flights were booked full everyday. Granted it was period specific, but the market is there. At one time, both Northwest and JAL offered service LAS-NRT-LAS. Currently the only service to Asia is Korean Airlines and Hainan Airlines.

Yah during the largest electronics show in the USA from a country that makes a lot of the electronics. Come on man.


Electronics manufacturing has been moving out of Japan for decades. It's in China, S Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia - even by Panasonic and Sony.
 
Boof02671
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:51 pm

LASlaugh wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Yah during the largest electronics show in the USA from a country that makes a lot of the electronics. Come on man.


Las Vegas <> Tokyo is one of the largest unserved intl routes in the country. Obviously yields are sky high during CES, but the remainder of the year has good demand also.

In relation to Phoenix, I wonder if AA has the capability to organize a 1-stop direct PHX-LAS-HND? But where would the PHX 787s come from, since there's no crew base? I know LAS occasionally gets domestic 788 from DFW and PHL, is this also true with PHX?

Why would they? Someone in PHX can connect in LAX. Be a waste of money to fly a widebody PHX-LAS.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:26 pm

TC957 wrote:
Could NRT - PHX be a route JAL have in mind for their upcoming Zipair LCC ?


NRT-LAS is a lot more likely. PHX is just not as big of a tourist magnet in comparison.

MIflyer12 wrote:
Electronics manufacturing has been moving out of Japan for decades. It's in China, S Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia - even by Panasonic and Sony.


Just on an additional note - Japanese brands in general haven't been doing too well in terms of market share, either. They still dominate the camera market (that had shrunk compare to the peak) with Canon/Nikon/Sony, but that's it.

P.S. The only saving grace for PHX vs. PHL is that PHX is 1000mi shorter flight = less fuel required = lower cost. But otherwise, in terms of connection, there are just not that many major market that AA doesn't already cover from LAX or DFW vs. PHX.
 
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aeromoe
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:58 pm

caliboy93 wrote:
Since AA TATL has finally arrived to PHX, can the same be said for AA TPAC to Tokyo from PHX?


No - the same cannot be said at this time. AA TPAC has not arrived to PHX. :rotfl: :white:
AA AC AS BA BD BF BN BR BY B6 CO CP(2) DG DL EA EI EN FL FT F9 HA HP ICX JI JQ J7 KE KS LH MC NW OC OO OZ(1) OZ(2) PA PI PT QF QQ RM RO RV(1) RV(2) RW SK SM SQ S4 TI TS TW UA UK US UZ VS VX WA WN WS W7 XV YV YX(2) ZZ 9K
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:10 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
You both have been here way long enough to know better than this kind of nonsense.

No one uses city proper in any regard for population stats in terms of aviation catchment.


He didn’t say anything about catchment areas and neither did I; he stated definitively that both cities are the same population size, and that’s simply not true. I made a point of sharing factual data to back that up. Done.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
PHLspecial
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:42 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
He didn’t say anything about catchment areas and neither did I; he stated definitively that both cities are the same population size, and that’s simply not true. I made a point of sharing factual data to back that up. Done.


Roughly speaking 50K difference in population between two cities is not that much. One is slightly bigger. Compared to the next city above both Philly and Phoenix is (about) the same size in population. I edited my position to say they are roughly the same size. In the grand scheme of things doesn't do much for a Tokyo flight. Phoenix is bigger but what is AA incentive to start the route? San Diego is a tad bit smaller than Philly and Phoenix yet they have a Tokyo flight.
 
usairways85
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:05 pm

You should look at metro areas. PHL is ~142 sq miles. PHX is 518 sq miles.
 
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cathay747
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:00 pm

I guess I missed the memo on AA applying for LAS-HND. I'm very surprised to learn this. Even though it would feed into a JL hub, it still strikes me as an odd route for AA to apply for.

That being said...my take on this is that if AA gets that route, it'll really put the kabash on any hopes of them ever starting a PHX-TYO route. Given the number of flights AA has been PHX & LAS, you could easily make a connection which would be in addition of course to connection possibilities over LAX...with customs/immigration at LAS being a LOT easier/less busy than at LAX. Tourist traffic for Grand Canyon could use LAS so that's another strike against PHX. Sad to say, we'd love to have an Asian nonstop here at PHX, but I don't see it happening if AA gets that LAS-HND.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
cm642
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:34 pm

Phoenix would have more demand for international flights if it weren't for a few factors the biggest being Arizona's education system. Arizona is currently ranked as one of the worst performing states (ranked 48th, practically dead last) when it comes to education. Employers and companies take note of things like this when deciding to set up shop in a particular region. While AZ has a competitive business friendly environment and lower cost of living, it's lack of an educated workforce hurt's it from attracting companies from overseas. Companies who create "high paying jobs" that help drive and create that international demand. Hence why companies from overseas tend to migrate towards states like Colorado for example, who has a better education system and better educated workforce.

One of the biggest factors route planners look at especially when it comes to international flights is premium traffic (aka "First" and "Business" passengers), that's where the bulk of the flights revenue comes from along with cargo. Airlines don't want to create the demand, they want it already in place. Until AZ improves it's education system, it will continue to be a flyover state for many foreign and domestic companies looking to set up shop in a place where they and their employees have access to better schools and an educated workforce. I'm saying this as an Arizonan who want's to see their state do better, but our education system kills us!

"Sorry, Phoenix. This is How Airlines Choose International Routes."
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/04/25/sorry-phoenix-this-is-how-airlines-choose-international-routes/

What is keeping Phoenix from landing more international flights
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/05/13/what-is-keeping-phoenix-from-landing-more.html
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:55 pm

cm642 wrote:
Phoenix would have more demand for international flights if it weren't for a few factors the biggest being Arizona's education system. Arizona is currently ranked as one of the worst performing states (ranked 48th, practically dead last) when it comes to education. Employers and companies take note of things like this when deciding to set up shop in a particular region. While AZ has a competitive business friendly environment and lower cost of living, it's lack of an educated workforce hurt's it from attracting companies from overseas, companies who create "high paying jobs" that help drive and create that international demand. Hence why companies from overseas tend to migrate towards states like Colorado for example, who has a better education system and better educated workforce. One of the biggest factors route planners look at especially when it comes to international flights is premium traffic (aka "First" and "Business" passengers), that's where the bulk of the flights revenue comes from along with cargo. Airlines don't want to create the demand, they want it already in place. Until AZ improves it's education system, it will continue to be a flyover state for many foreign and domestic companies looking to set up shop in a place where they and their employees have access to better schools and an educated workforce. I'm saying this as an Arizonan who want's to see their state do better, but our education system kills us!

"Sorry, Phoenix. This is How Airlines Choose International Routes."
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/04/25/sorry-phoenix-this-is-how-airlines-choose-international-routes/

What is keeping Phoenix from landing more international flights
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/05/13/what-is-keeping-phoenix-from-landing-more.html


If corporations cared about education or the local populace when setting up shop in a location then Atlanta would not be the busiest airport in the world. Arizona is quite literally the fastest growing area in the entire country and will land a flight to Asia in the next 5-10 years. We have resort traffic, a huge amount of tech companies moving in every day, and two award-winning universities in the state that are known worldwide.


No matter what Red for Ed says Arizona has an extremely bright future.
 
cm642
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:05 am

SierraPacific wrote:
cm642 wrote:
Phoenix would have more demand for international flights if it weren't for a few factors the biggest being Arizona's education system. Arizona is currently ranked as one of the worst performing states (ranked 48th, practically dead last) when it comes to education. Employers and companies take note of things like this when deciding to set up shop in a particular region. While AZ has a competitive business friendly environment and lower cost of living, it's lack of an educated workforce hurt's it from attracting companies from overseas, companies who create "high paying jobs" that help drive and create that international demand. Hence why companies from overseas tend to migrate towards states like Colorado for example, who has a better education system and better educated workforce. One of the biggest factors route planners look at especially when it comes to international flights is premium traffic (aka "First" and "Business" passengers), that's where the bulk of the flights revenue comes from along with cargo. Airlines don't want to create the demand, they want it already in place. Until AZ improves it's education system, it will continue to be a flyover state for many foreign and domestic companies looking to set up shop in a place where they and their employees have access to better schools and an educated workforce. I'm saying this as an Arizonan who want's to see their state do better, but our education system kills us!

"Sorry, Phoenix. This is How Airlines Choose International Routes."
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/04/25/sorry-phoenix-this-is-how-airlines-choose-international-routes/

What is keeping Phoenix from landing more international flights
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/05/13/what-is-keeping-phoenix-from-landing-more.html


If corporations cared about education or the local populace when setting up shop in a location then Atlanta would not be the busiest airport in the world. Arizona is quite literally the fastest growing area in the entire country and will land a flight to Asia in the next 5-10 years. We have resort traffic, a huge amount of tech companies moving in every day, and two award-winning universities in the state that are known worldwide.


No matter what Red for Ed says Arizona has an extremely bright future.



I'm speaking on a broader level, yes were attracting tech companies but a lot of those positions are back office jobs, not high paying. Yes I do see Asia in the in term but nothing grand beyond that in the near future and as I said education is part of the problem, not the full problem!
 
travaz
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:44 am

The future for Arizona and flights to Asia are helped by the increase in taxes and regulations by California. I think you will see more and more large companies move to the Phoenix area to take advantage of the tax and regulatory climate.

http://azgovernor.gov/governor/news/201 ... ng-arizona
 
raptorbandito
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:42 am

cm642 wrote:
Phoenix would have more demand for international flights if it weren't for a few factors the biggest being Arizona's education system. Arizona is currently ranked as one of the worst performing states (ranked 48th, practically dead last) when it comes to education. Employers and companies take note of things like this when deciding to set up shop in a particular region. While AZ has a competitive business friendly environment and lower cost of living, it's lack of an educated workforce hurt's it from attracting companies from overseas. Companies who create "high paying jobs" that help drive and create that international demand. Hence why companies from overseas tend to migrate towards states like Colorado for example, who has a better education system and better educated workforce.

One of the biggest factors route planners look at especially when it comes to international flights is premium traffic (aka "First" and "Business" passengers), that's where the bulk of the flights revenue comes from along with cargo. Airlines don't want to create the demand, they want it already in place. Until AZ improves it's education system, it will continue to be a flyover state for many foreign and domestic companies looking to set up shop in a place where they and their employees have access to better schools and an educated workforce. I'm saying this as an Arizonan who want's to see their state do better, but our education system kills us!

"Sorry, Phoenix. This is How Airlines Choose International Routes."
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/04/25/sorry-phoenix-this-is-how-airlines-choose-international-routes/

What is keeping Phoenix from landing more international flights
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/05/13/what-is-keeping-phoenix-from-landing-more.html


Those education results are K-12 companies don't particularly care about GED level talent, its all about secondary education where phoenix is making pretty good strides. With ASU, UofA, GCU, and the Thunderbird School of Global Managment in the Phoenix metro its not doing as bad as you say.
 
cm642
Posts: 92
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:05 am

LAX772LR wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
He didn’t say anything about catchment areas and neither did

Which renders you both babbling about an issue completely irrelevant to aviation on an aviation forum, hence the admonition. "Done." :roll:


Economics factors into aviation and air service. Philly and Phoenix are completely different so I agree with you there along with catchment area.
 
n2dru
Posts: 126
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:36 am

Dup post
 
n2dru
Posts: 126
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:42 am

SierraPacific wrote:
cm642 wrote:
Phoenix would have more demand for international flights if it weren't for a few factors the biggest being Arizona's education system. Arizona is currently ranked as one of the worst performing states (ranked 48th, practically dead last) when it comes to education. Employers and companies take note of things like this when deciding to set up shop in a particular region. While AZ has a competitive business friendly environment and lower cost of living, it's lack of an educated workforce hurt's it from attracting companies from overseas, companies who create "high paying jobs" that help drive and create that international demand. Hence why companies from overseas tend to migrate towards states like Colorado for example, who has a better education system and better educated workforce. One of the biggest factors route planners look at especially when it comes to international flights is premium traffic (aka "First" and "Business" passengers), that's where the bulk of the flights revenue comes from along with cargo. Airlines don't want to create the demand, they want it already in place. Until AZ improves it's education system, it will continue to be a flyover state for many foreign and domestic companies looking to set up shop in a place where they and their employees have access to better schools and an educated workforce. I'm saying this as an Arizonan who want's to see their state do better, but our education system kills us!

"Sorry, Phoenix. This is How Airlines Choose International Routes."
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/04/25/sorry-phoenix-this-is-how-airlines-choose-international-routes/

What is keeping Phoenix from landing more international flights
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/05/13/what-is-keeping-phoenix-from-landing-more.html


If corporations cared about education or the local populace when setting up shop in a location then Atlanta would not be the busiest airport in the world. Arizona is quite literally the fastest growing area in the entire country and will land a flight to Asia in the next 5-10 years. We have resort traffic, a huge amount of tech companies moving in every day, and two award-winning universities in the state that are known worldwide.


No matter what Red for Ed says Arizona has an extremely bright future.


Not sure what Atlanta has to do with this. But Atlanta has a highly educated workforce and population. Some top ranked universities and a local population that travels frequently. That's why companies like The Home Depot, Coca Cola and UPS are headquartered here and companies like Mercedes Benz and Porsche moved their US headquarters here. Can Phoenix say the same?
 
colemcandrew
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:03 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:47 am

I could see PHX-NRT happening soon. I believe (if I'm remembering correctly) that US Airways applied for a PHX-NRT flight back before the merger. And it got cancelled also.

Not sure if this could be JAL taking advantage of these charters, but back in January,and February. First they sent a 787 from Narita, dropping off a team. When picking up the team, From HND (I believe, could be wrong) with a 77W. Not sure if them sending two different heavies could mean something (like testing and taking advantage of the fact that they're doing charters).
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1828
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:05 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:57 am

cm642 wrote:
Phoenix would have more demand for international flights if it weren't for a few factors the biggest being Arizona's education system. Arizona is currently ranked as one of the worst performing states (ranked 48th, practically dead last) when it comes to education. Employers and companies take note of things like this when deciding to set up shop in a particular region. While AZ has a competitive business friendly environment and lower cost of living, it's lack of an educated workforce hurt's it from attracting companies from overseas. Companies who create "high paying jobs" that help drive and create that international demand. Hence why companies from overseas tend to migrate towards states like Colorado for example, who has a better education system and better educated workforce.

One of the biggest factors route planners look at especially when it comes to international flights is premium traffic (aka "First" and "Business" passengers), that's where the bulk of the flights revenue comes from along with cargo. Airlines don't want to create the demand, they want it already in place. Until AZ improves it's education system, it will continue to be a flyover state for many foreign and domestic companies looking to set up shop in a place where they and their employees have access to better schools and an educated workforce. I'm saying this as an Arizonan who want's to see their state do better, but our education system kills us!

"Sorry, Phoenix. This is How Airlines Choose International Routes."
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/04/25/sorry-phoenix-this-is-how-airlines-choose-international-routes/

What is keeping Phoenix from landing more international flights
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/05/13/what-is-keeping-phoenix-from-landing-more.html


Airlines start routes all the time trying to create/atimulate demand. PHX is a low priority for AA as they allocate resources over the Pacific. A few short years ago AA had a considerably more limited presence in Asia. The airline has "spent" it's allocation of high risk resources up to the current point in time building up LAX/DFW-Asia and leveraging their current partnerships. Currently PHX represents an unnecessary risk as the substitutes to Asia aren't all that unattractive since nearly every major Asian city can be reached 1 stop via lax/sfo. IMO, this drastically reduces the attractiveness of using NRT as a connection point to Asia at large.
 
Atlwarrior
Posts: 399
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:42 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:39 am

Phoenix one of the fastest growing cities in the US.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...nty-metro.html
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 6625
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:53 am

LAX772LR wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
I know there are naysayers that know what they are saying, like an elf with a similar name to mine,

If you're going to allude to someone, at least know what their actual stance is on the issue.

Such a route, like any other, won't exist until its utility exceeds the opportunity cost. As of now, there's very little (available to the public anyway) to indicate that that's the case for AA; doesn't mean it can't change. I wouldn't be surprised to see such a flight eventually, just not any time soon; especially with fuel costs rising, and with AA still being expansion mode at LAX.

I alluded to you because we actually had this same conversation not long ago. Im not saying it's gonna happen within this year, but I can see it before 2025; I'll buy you a 6 pack if that doesnt happen.

I don't have the tools to actually do research for things like this but I have been right before. I actually emailed United about flying IAH-SYD and was laughed at on this website for proposing that ET fly to IAH. I also asked if a stretched CR2/145 to have a true F cabin was feasible, not long after BBD launched the CRJ550 and UA was the launch customer. So some of my ideas aren't totally unfounded.

I also think NRT-PHX is better suited for JL than AA when this route is launched.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3377
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:20 am

LAX772LR wrote:
No one uses city proper in any regard for population stats in terms of aviation catchment, and yes PHL's is significant larger than PHX's....


No, it isn't. I mean, a simple Google search of either city will easily verify that for you. It takes 5 seconds. People should stop posting stuff here that is demonstrably incorrect and easily provably so.

In terms of metro area, PHL's is, as I said, stagnant, while PHX's is growing. Again, a 5 second Google search will tell you this.

And PHL's "metro area" is already partially served by EWR. PHX is served by PHX, that's it. There's no other major airport in the area. LAX and LAS are both hundreds of miles away.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
Ebmek
Posts: 18
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:24 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:59 am

cm642 wrote:
Phoenix would have more demand for international flights if it weren't for a few factors the biggest being Arizona's education system. Arizona is currently ranked as one of the worst performing states (ranked 48th, practically dead last) when it comes to education. Employers and companies take note of things like this when deciding to set up shop in a particular region. While AZ has a competitive business friendly environment and lower cost of living, it's lack of an educated workforce hurt's it from attracting companies from overseas. Companies who create "high paying jobs" that help drive and create that international demand. Hence why companies from overseas tend to migrate towards states like Colorado for example, who has a better education system and better educated workforce.

One of the biggest factors route planners look at especially when it comes to international flights is premium traffic (aka "First" and "Business" passengers), that's where the bulk of the flights revenue comes from along with cargo. Airlines don't want to create the demand, they want it already in place. Until AZ improves it's education system, it will continue to be a flyover state for many foreign and domestic companies looking to set up shop in a place where they and their employees have access to better schools and an educated workforce. I'm saying this as an Arizonan who want's to see their state do better, but our education system kills us!

"Sorry, Phoenix. This is How Airlines Choose International Routes."
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/04/25/sorry-phoenix-this-is-how-airlines-choose-international-routes/

What is keeping Phoenix from landing more international flights
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/05/13/what-is-keeping-phoenix-from-landing-more.html


As an Arizonan myself, I find this hard to believe. Employers don't care about K-12 education statistics. In the long run, that does not matter. All they care about are the tax incentives for setting up shop wherever they decide to go. There are so many businesses setting up shop in Arizona, it's mind boggling. Have you visited Tempe Town Lake recently? The corporate area near Chandler Fashion? All the way on the East side by Mesa Gateway? The area around Glendale arena? Phoenix is absolutely booming and Tucson is on the up and up as well because all the Californians are moving in. You have 3 huge Universities in the state with a crazy amount of foreign students. The Asian population of Arizona is growing and they fly back home in droves to visit every year (When Hawaiian still flew to MNL from HNL, plenty of Filipinos flew out of PHX and connected through HNL to get home). The market is there. AA or a OW partner would make money on a TPAC route out of PHX. The ONLY factor is LAX being so close by and that being a known gateway to Asia with plenty of connections.
 
acentauri
Posts: 237
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:35 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:43 am

spacecadet wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
No one uses city proper in any regard for population stats in terms of aviation catchment, and yes PHL's is significant larger than PHX's....


No, it isn't. I mean, a simple Google search of either city will easily verify that for you. It takes 5 seconds. People should stop posting stuff here that is demonstrably incorrect and easily provably so.

In terms of metro area, PHL's is, as I said, stagnant, while PHX's is growing. Again, a 5 second Google search will tell you this.

And PHL's "metro area" is already partially served by EWR. PHX is served by PHX, that's it. There's no other major airport in the area. LAX and LAS are both hundreds of miles away.

Philadelphia's population has grown for each of the past 12 years - since 2007 (Source: U.S. Census Bureau). A 2 second Google search will tell you this. The growth is not as spectacular as sun belt Phoenix's , BUT you need to look up the meaning of "stagnant". Yep, "PHX is served by PHX, that's it. There's no other major airport in the area. LAX and LAS are both hundreds of miles away". So, even with its isolation (and an AA connecting Hub), PHX cannot achieve anything more than 1 Daily BA Year Round flight, 1 - 3 x Week BA - Seasonal flight and 1 Daily AA Seasonal Flight to Europe (LHR only) - and zero trans-Pacific. Even with EWR's competition up the road, PHL has a "few" more international routes. You're absolutely correct, "People should stop posting stuff here that is demonstrably incorrect and easily provably so." (sic). :biggrin:

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