lightsaber wrote:

Why if a company does well do others spend so much effort to bring them down. Crab potting (If I don't win, no one wins) slows down the economy.

SpiceJet pulled a coup. Congrats to them. Others are taking 737s too. The reality is the greater Indian economy is feeling the Jet shutdown (hotels, tourist destinations, business people not flying to do business). Friction in business is always a bad thing (slows economic growth which means fewer jobs).

India needs domestic and international flights to increase investment (both domestic and foreign). The velocity of money is important. Either get it back up or watch growth slow. That means allocate flights.

I've yet to see a proposal that will work saving Jet. But that is based on my understanding of the costs to restart Jet. My estimate is higher than the funds I see being raised.

Personally, EY is likely to shrink. The loss of those bilateral rights will further reduce international travel in/out of India. What countries does India have open skies besides USA (due to distance/fuel taxes there is limited opportunity)?

Lightsaber

I think the only quibble I have is congratulating Spice on crony capitalism (and others seem to feel the same). Did they win, absolutely. But I’m not willing to celebrate it because it hurts indian aviation, Indian business, indian tourism and india itself. Change doesn’t happen if people turn a blind eye when they get what they want and cry bloody murder when they don’t. I felt the same way about Goyal and am glad he is gone - but sad we are getting a new crony in Spice. But even I’m bored of protesting. Easier to just move on and see what happens - hence why things never change. At least delta announced JFK-BOM.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Why if a company does well do others spend so much effort to bring them down. Crab potting (If I don't win, no one wins) slows down the economy.

SpiceJet pulled a coup. Congrats to them. Others are taking 737s too. The reality is the greater Indian economy is feeling the Jet shutdown (hotels, tourist destinations, business people not flying to do business). Friction in business is always a bad thing (slows economic growth which means fewer jobs).

India needs domestic and international flights to increase investment (both domestic and foreign). The velocity of money is important. Either get it back up or watch growth slow. That means allocate flights.

I've yet to see a proposal that will work saving Jet. But that is based on my understanding of the costs to restart Jet. My estimate is higher than the funds I see being raised.

Personally, EY is likely to shrink. The loss of those bilateral rights will further reduce international travel in/out of India. What countries does India have open skies besides USA (due to distance/fuel taxes there is limited opportunity)?

Lightsaber

I think the only quibble I have is congratulating Spice on crony capitalism (and others seem to feel the same). Did they win, absolutely. But I’m not willing to celebrate it because it hurts indian aviation, Indian business, indian tourism and india itself. Change doesn’t happen if people turn a blind eye when they get what they want and cry bloody murder when they don’t. I felt the same way about Goyal and am glad he is gone - but sad we are getting a new crony in Spice. But even I’m bored of protesting. Easier to just move on and see what happens - hence why things never change. At least delta announced JFK-BOM.

Who would you have preferred in Spice’s place? It would have been Indigo, the big bully, making things even worse.

If Delta is the loss leader for China ( in the overall interest of corporate contracts), United could use the strategy for India and start SFO to BLR; and ORD to BOM.

does AA not meant to touch India?

US carriers could have moved fast with Jet’s collapse. If they don’t Vistara, in a year, would likely start service to the US.

Is there any chance of a LAX to India direct flight by a US carrier? If not, why not? It is the second largest airport in the US, the largest on the US west coast and is a hub for AA, UA and Delta. Why has Air India not targeted LAX?

Edealinfo,
SFO is more software. That has more of a fit. LAX has so many one stop options to India it suppresses fares. ULH only works if enough premium is available. Because LAX isn't dominated by any one carrier, it splits up the premium pool of fliers. While JFK is similar, the quantity of premium fliers is that much greater to allow the flights.

I would love to see direct service to the USA. QF has shown the potential with the 789. I believe the A350 and 778 are more capable.

Lightsaber

Does anyone think Jet's demise helps Air India?

My thoughts.
Short term - slightly - as it can take advantage of slightly higher fares now, and maybe gain back a little bit of market share
(Although trying to get some of Jet's aircraft when it can't afford to maintain the current fleet bus crazy)
Long term - very bad - actually hastens Air India's demise as it gives more market share to airlines with even lower cost bases again

moa999 wrote:

Does anyone think Jet's demise helps Air India?

My thoughts.
Short term - slightly - as it can take advantage of slightly higher fares now, and maybe gain back a little bit of market share
(Although trying to get some of Jet's aircraft when it can't afford to maintain the current fleet bus crazy)
Long term - very bad - actually hastens Air India's demise as it gives more market share to airlines with even lower cost bases again

Every airline could go out of business and AI would likely still lose money.

AI is a non-factor in aviation anymore.

lightsaber wrote:

Edealinfo,
SFO is more software. That has more of a fit. LAX has so many one stop options to India it suppresses fares. ULH only works if enough premium is available. Because LAX isn't dominated by any one carrier, it splits up the premium pool of fliers. While JFK is similar, the quantity of premium fliers is that much greater to allow the flights.

I would love to see direct service to the USA. QF has shown the potential with the 789. I believe the A350 and 778 are more capable.

Lightsaber

Thanks.

Another question. Vistara has ordered the 789. Assuming it starts direct service to North America, presumably from DEL since that is its hub, what would be the likely be the routes that are technically capable with that aircraft assuming it is configured for business, premium economy, and economy. Are are the following routes feasible?

YYZ-DEL
JFK-DEL
ORD-DEL
SFO-DEL
IAH - DEL
BOS-DEL
IAD-DEL

I think AI made a profit in the first quarter and is likely to this quarter. But for the year, I predict a loss. As Antarius noted, they ate a non-factor as they just are not run as a business.

What I found interesting is Aircastle bragged about being early to ground Jet Aircraft!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425916 ... transcript

They didn't make as much money due to a double hit (Avianca Brazil was the other shutdown airline). But overall doing well (except for the off topic inability to place one aircraft family). If people read that quarterly report, they will realize how little influence any one nation has on the air lease market except to influence risk pricing by poor policy.

Lightsaber

Government sees little scope for Jet Airways revival: Sources

This is what forum members have been saying for over 2 months while Govt. only now makes such statements; why do forum members know more than the Government?

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 95684.html

edealinfo wrote:

Is there any chance of a LAX to India direct flight by a US carrier? If not, why not? It is the second largest airport in the US, the largest on the US west coast and is a hub for AA, UA and Delta. Why has Air India not targeted LAX?

AI had announced DEL-LAX starting October 2017 and I believe it even had the flight for sale. But the route never took off.

Gol Brasil to take 4 B737 from Jet: VT-JTE (s/n 37743), -JTL (s/n 37745), -JTM (s/n 37746), -JGG (s/n 29668)

edealinfo wrote:

Government sees little scope for Jet Airways revival: Sources

This is what forum members have been saying for over 2 months while Govt. only now makes such statements; why do forum members know more than the Government?

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 95684.html

Elections are almost over, now they can acknowledge the inevitable.....

By the time the B737MAX returns to service, will they be the only aircraft left.

Are they leased or owned.

Outrageous plan to take over Jet (simply laughable....only in India)

""The banks can give ₹1,500 crore loan to the employees. This is six months' salary of each employee as personal loan. The employees will use this money to buy out 51 per cent stake in the company from SBI and 12.5 per cent from Etihad. The balance ₹200 crore would be given to the company for new shares. This way the employees will control Jet Airways," said the presentation reviewed by IANS."

"Accordingly, the banks can be persuaded to give a personal loan to all those who want to buy four tickets each for ₹10,000 which would be valid for two years. By pre-selling these tickets, as much as ₹8,000 crore could be raised."

Isn't this bizarre.....the request is for the banks to give an unsecured loan of 1500 crore so that employees can buy a 51% stake from SBI, a fictitious stake that SBI currently doesn't own. Then the banks would have to advance more unsecured loans to get the planes of the ground. What's more, the proposal calls for frequent flyers to also an active part in rescuing the airline. Under the plan, banks would be required to extend 8,000 crores as unsecured loans to frequent flyers to help them buy pre-paid tickets on Jet.

Heck this proposal is wilder than Mr. Unsworth's proposal. At least Mr. Unsworth's proposal was merely on paper ....A380's for Jet....management led by himself and his family.........but no request from banks for cash. He got tremedous publicity from teh Indian media -- even Dube wrote to him and he was interviewed by CNBC India on his vision for Jet. If he was Indian, they would have been on the ground laughing. But, because he is a Pforeigner, the media actually took him seriously, and gave him full coverage in the written press.

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 59023.html

edealinfo wrote:

Government sees little scope for Jet Airways revival: Sources

This is what forum members have been saying for over 2 months while Govt. only now makes such statements; why do forum members know more than the Government?

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 95684.html

It is the other way around; some forum members seem to be infatuated with a) 9W and it Class F/J seats
B) BOM hub and so forth.

The govt has made it pretty clear they will not intern I. An individual company. The aviation policy is pretty consistent as well, favor ‘Indian Metal’ for India origin traffic.

I personally think the last policy is misguided but one can not fault the govt in favoring it’s domiciled companies.

Lots of talk about saving Jet.

Soon they will have no planes and no pilots.

Surely it is clear that this is game over.

AirAsia Makes Moves....

1. To get 3 aircraft before June
2. The airline will launch additional flights from Delhi to Indore, Bagdogra, Hyderabad and Ranchi with effect from May 20

Other Policy News on Jet Slots
"Slots will only be considered for an allotment that will be operational within 30 days... airlines to operationalise slots within 7 days of commencement date failing to which the slots will be automatically stand withdrawn and airlines will get the lowest priority for future allocation," DGCA's guidelines state on slot allotment process for Jet Airways slots."

https://www.cnbctv18.com/aviation/airas ... 204911.htm

Martin of Martin Consulting says lenders are to blame for Jet's fiasco
(By the way, Indian newspapers habitually turn to Martin for quotes for their articles). Does anyone know of his expertise besides feeding newspapers his commentary:

Martin -- "Jet has nothing left to offer and if anybody is fully responsible for the fiasco, it’s the lenders.”


https://qz.com/india/1606867/ceo-vinay- ... h-landing/

"Tata and Jet Airways: What goes around comes around"

Nice article from The Hindustan Times
https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis ... yxQAJ.html

vadodara wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

Government sees little scope for Jet Airways revival: Sources

This is what forum members have been saying for over 2 months while Govt. only now makes such statements; why do forum members know more than the Government?

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 95684.html

It is the other way around; some forum members seem to be infatuated with a) 9W and it Class F/J seats
B) BOM hub and so forth.

The govt has made it pretty clear they will not intern I. An individual company. The aviation policy is pretty consistent as well, favor ‘Indian Metal’ for India origin traffic.

I personally think the last policy is misguided but one can not fault the govt in favoring it’s domiciled companies.

Seriously? The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated. Most people saying positive things about Jet are normal pax that have no agenda. BOM has always had options and always will. so in the end BOM will be fine. No begging bowl.. DL’s JFK-BOM is a great add. That said, Jet had a great J product from my pov. Mock me if you want, but I will miss it and am not looking forward to KL/AF rebooking by DL. You actually believe that jet’s fail only affects BOM. It will affect all of india as tourist arrivals decline. Just look at the hard numbers of tourist growth from places linked the Netherlands and France. I am pretty sure these tourists were not going to Bom but rather connecting to places like Goa, Kerala, etc. What I don’t get is you seem anti hubs in india, anti Indian airlines, anti BOM, etc. why even post on an Indian aviation forum?

CaliguyNYC wrote:

The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated.

Stating facts is not being anti anything. Jet is a failed airline. BOM is not premium enough to sustain a FSC hub operations.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

That said, Jet had a great J product from my pov. Mock me if you want, but I will miss it and am not looking forward to KL/AF rebooking by DL. You actually believe that jet’s fail only affects BOM. It will affect all of india as tourist arrivals decline. Just look at the hard numbers of tourist growth from places linked the Netherlands and France. I am pretty sure these tourists were not going to Bom but rather connecting to places like Goa, Kerala, etc. What I don’t get is you seem anti hubs in india, anti Indian airlines, anti BOM, etc. why even post on an Indian aviation forum?

Tried shopping Jet to your banker friends?

vadodara wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

That said, Jet had a great J product from my pov. Mock me if you want, but I will miss it and am not looking forward to KL/AF rebooking by DL. You actually believe that jet’s fail only affects BOM. It will affect all of india as tourist arrivals decline. Just look at the hard numbers of tourist growth from places linked the Netherlands and France. I am pretty sure these tourists were not going to Bom but rather connecting to places like Goa, Kerala, etc. What I don’t get is you seem anti hubs in india, anti Indian airlines, anti BOM, etc. why even post on an Indian aviation forum?

Tried shopping Jet to your banker friends?

He probably couldn’t because your Indigo friends made sure the banks pulled the rug on Jet ( didn’t extend the 1500 crore promised loan.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Seriously? The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated. Most people saying positive things about Jet are normal pax that have no agenda. BOM has always had options and always will. so in the end BOM will be fine. No begging bowl.. DL’s JFK-BOM is a great add.

If anything, Jet's shutdown has affected small town residents the most. Try flying now from Vadodara or Coimbatore to Europe/Amreeka. They have very few single ticket airline options, or probably even none! Either they pay through the nose or settle for long wait hours with possible re-checkin through different airlines. We all know re-check in means baggage allowance limit drops, as pax will say have to fly a local 6E flight with 15kg luggage possibly to connect to int'l flight as an example. The airports I'm referring to on here are the ones that lack proper int'l flights to ME hubs or regular FSC flights to an Indian hub (read AI).
BOM doesn't suffer as much as other smaller towns , as airlines- local or int'l will continue to mount flights to BOM giving plenty of options, and fill up the Jet vacuum. And the new intl flights at BOM won't even benefit other small towns if those foreign carriers aren't going to partner with local carriers and/or have suitable connecting/banks to feed such flights.

avier wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Seriously? The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated. Most people saying positive things about Jet are normal pax that have no agenda. BOM has always had options and always will. so in the end BOM will be fine. No begging bowl.. DL’s JFK-BOM is a great add.

If anything, Jet's shutdown has affected small town residents the most. Try flying now from Vadodara or Coimbatore to Europe/Amreeka. They have very few single ticket airline options, or probably even none! Either they pay through the nose or settle for long wait hours with possible re-checkin through different airlines. We all know re-check in means baggage allowance limit drops, as pax will say have to fly a local 6E flight with 15kg luggage possibly to connect to int'l flight as an example. The airports I'm referring to on here are the ones that lack proper int'l flights to ME hubs or regular FSC flights to an Indian hub (read AI).
BOM doesn't suffer as much as other smaller towns , as airlines- local or int'l will continue to mount flights to BOM giving plenty of options, and fill up the Jet vacuum. And the new intl flights at BOM won't even benefit other small towns if those foreign carriers aren't going to partner with local carriers and/or have suitable connecting/banks to feed such flights.

Have a look at Jodhpur, we had 5 flights from 9W and 2 from AI and 2 seasonal SG, So in April, we got a huge reduction in Capacity, going from 9 flights to 3 flights on 1st April and then to 2 flights on 17th as from 1st till 17th we were receiving 1 9W flight to Delhi, So we went from 4 destinations to 2 in the same time


Sent from my iPhone XS MAX using Tapatalk

CaliguyNYC wrote:

That said, Jet had a great J product from my pov.

Except it wasnt anymore. Objectively, in 2019, the best way to describe 9W's J product was "fine". The a332s especially were falling apart inside.

What made it great?

avier wrote:

If anything, Jet's shutdown has affected small town residents the most. Try flying now from Vadodara or Coimbatore to Europe/Amreeka. They have very few single ticket airline options, or probably even none! Either they pay through the nose or settle for long wait hours with possible re-checkin through different airlines.

True. SG's partnership with EK is the only hope.

edealinfo wrote:

AirAsia Makes Moves....

1. To get 3 aircraft before June
2. The airline will launch additional flights from Delhi to Indore, Bagdogra, Hyderabad and Ranchi with effect from May 20

Other Policy News on Jet Slots
"Slots will only be considered for an allotment that will be operational within 30 days... airlines to operationalise slots within 7 days of commencement date failing to which the slots will be automatically stand withdrawn and airlines will get the lowest priority for future allocation," DGCA's guidelines state on slot allotment process for Jet Airways slots."

https://www.cnbctv18.com/aviation/airas ... 204911.htm

Since the goal is to return service as fast as possible, having a mechanism to prevent slot squatting is wise. Allowing for some delay is only fair.

It is definitely a race for the bits of Jet. At this point, I see no way to turn the company around under current law. India needs a legal change for illiquid companies to go to receivership earlier. Take the UK, US, or a new approach. Secured loans must be respected or the entire banking sector will fall apart. (Recall how much damage was done to the US economy for the mucking with the Crysler bankruptcy).

A sad situation. I feel for the employees. New laws must go into effect to keep this from happening again and again.

At least the leasing rights have been protected. After Kingfisher the Indian leasing market was mucked up. As the agreed process/timeline seems to have been kept to, other Indian airlines will benefit. Contrast to Brazil where the issues impossed due to the Avianca bankruptcy now has leasing companies avoiding new business in Brazil (e.g. Aircastle).

Aircraft leasing is very concentrated:

https://www.gecas.com/en/common/docs/Le ... 0_2015.pdf


One cannot step on many toes before lease financing becomes pricey. I didn't realize AerCap was such a high fraction of widebody leasing. OK, that list is old (2015) but show the leasing club is chummy.


Lightsaber

unrave wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated.

Stating facts is not being anti anything. Jet is a failed airline. BOM is not premium enough to sustain a FSC hub operations.

If not BOM, then which city is?

binayak wrote:

unrave wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated.

Stating facts is not being anti anything. Jet is a failed airline. BOM is not premium enough to sustain a FSC hub operations.

If not BOM, then which city is?

DEL, as long as AI and/or UK are around. BLR, as long as those clamouring for BLR-SFO are around.

avier wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Seriously? The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated. Most people saying positive things about Jet are normal pax that have no agenda. BOM has always had options and always will. so in the end BOM will be fine. No begging bowl.. DL’s JFK-BOM is a great add.

If anything, Jet's shutdown has affected small town residents the most. Try flying now from Vadodara or Coimbatore to Europe/Amreeka. They have very few single ticket airline options, or probably even none! Either they pay through the nose or settle for long wait hours with possible re-checkin through different airlines. We all know re-check in means baggage allowance limit drops, as pax will say have to fly a local 6E flight with 15kg luggage possibly to connect to int'l flight as an example. The airports I'm referring to on here are the ones that lack proper int'l flights to ME hubs or regular FSC flights to an Indian hub (read AI).
BOM doesn't suffer as much as other smaller towns , as airlines- local or int'l will continue to mount flights to BOM giving plenty of options, and fill up the Jet vacuum. And the new intl flights at BOM won't even benefit other small towns if those foreign carriers aren't going to partner with local carriers and/or have suitable connecting/banks to feed such flights.

I agree with you on it affecting smaller towns. That was the point I was trying to make earlier. Some people were so against BOM and DEL hubs that they failed to understand the benefits to different cities across india. Look at DL/AF/VS/KL, they were happy to hand over India flying to Jet. Jet started EU flights from BOM, DEL, BLR and MAA (and many of us hoped HYD would be next). A strong profitable Indian airline is the best hope for the widest connectivity to India. But a airline needs at least one hub. Some cities can never be served nonstop without feed from various points. The notion that india should only be connected to points that can survive only O&D is very myopic IMHO.

To the other poster's question - On Jet's J service, my last flights with Jet in J were AMS-BOM in Dec and BOM-LHR in Jan. So can't speak to what happened after. What I liked about Jet - dine on demand, espresso coffees and wide variety of teas, 2 Indian options and 2 western (and I liked that the Indian options were different not chicken curry), mattress pad for seat, wide seat (not a coffin), helpful staff (while I do no need or expect help with my carryon, my mom loves that they insist on lifting it up for her). Was Jet the world's best, no. But it was very solid. For me well above AF & KL and just below DL (DL is just more consistent). So I went out of my way to book on Jet instead of AF or KL into BOM. There are not a lot of DL partners I put above Jet - probably just DL, VS and Korean.

edealinfo wrote:

vadodara wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

That said, Jet had a great J product from my pov. Mock me if you want, but I will miss it and am not looking forward to KL/AF rebooking by DL. You actually believe that jet’s fail only affects BOM. It will affect all of india as tourist arrivals decline. Just look at the hard numbers of tourist growth from places linked the Netherlands and France. I am pretty sure these tourists were not going to Bom but rather connecting to places like Goa, Kerala, etc. What I don’t get is you seem anti hubs in india, anti Indian airlines, anti BOM, etc. why even post on an Indian aviation forum?

Tried shopping Jet to your banker friends?

He probably couldn’t because your Indigo friends made sure the banks pulled the rug on Jet ( didn’t extend the 1500 crore promised loan.

So the banks should loose their shirt so 9W can fly Class J

Jet's demise will hurt Indian tourist arrivals to some extent especially to smaller cities. AI does have some connections from BOM but primarily from DEL and AI does have more flights from Europe and a few from US, plus it offers more generous baggage allowance (25 kgs) even for domestic tickets without connections. AI has to start more flights from BOM to smaller cities to take advantage of Jet's demise.

avier wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Seriously? The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated. Most people saying positive things about Jet are normal pax that have no agenda. BOM has always had options and always will. so in the end BOM will be fine. No begging bowl.. DL’s JFK-BOM is a great add.

If anything, Jet's shutdown has affected small town residents the most. Try flying now from Vadodara or Coimbatore to Europe/Amreeka. an Indian hub (read AI).
hts.

Try giving even a fraction of the billions spent to bail out AI and 9W and that should do wonders to the infra for these small towns.

Regarding the 1-stops, see the former. Every airline that thinks it can make money will happily fly there.

If BOM wants to compete, improve the infra. It neither had the money nor the market is large to support the investment.

VTCIE wrote:

binayak wrote:

unrave wrote:

Stating facts is not being anti anything. Jet is a failed airline. BOM is not premium enough to sustain a FSC hub operations.

If not BOM, then which city is?

DEL, as long as AI and/or UK are around. BLR, as long as those clamouring for BLR-SFO are around.

TBH I think DEL BOM and BLR can become FSC hubs (by hub I mean at least 100 departures a day).
Some people (not you) were trying to prove that since jet is in loss, BOM can't sustain FSC. Going by that logic, even DEL can't because both AI and UK are in loss. BLR is not FSC hub too.

vadodara wrote:

avier wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Seriously? The anti Jet and anti BOM people are the ones who are infatuated. Most people saying positive things about Jet are normal pax that have no agenda. BOM has always had options and always will. so in the end BOM will be fine. No begging bowl.. DL’s JFK-BOM is a great add.

If anything, Jet's shutdown has affected small town residents the most. Try flying now from Vadodara or Coimbatore to Europe/Amreeka. an Indian hub (read AI).
hts.

Try giving even a fraction of the billions spent to bail out AI and 9W and that should do wonders to the infra for these small towns.

Regarding the 1-stops, see the former. Every airline that thinks it can make money will happily fly there.

If BOM wants to compete, improve the infra. It neither had the money nor the market is large to support the investment.

To be fair, BOM has good premium demand (witness EK's 5 daily wide bodies, SQ, BA that send premium heavy planes). The issue is more around competition and GOI policies that make having a hub at BOM (or anywhere in India) as issue. So it is market realities not some innate problem at BOM. Even if 75% of India refused to connect in an India airport, BOM would do just fine with the 25%. I hope post Jet the discussion turns to what policy changes are needed to create a strong Indian aviation market. I think your pov of giving up misses a huge opportunity for India.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

The issue is more around competition and GOI policies that make having a hub at BOM (or anywhere in India) as issue. So it is market realities not some innate problem at BOM.

This I agree with. In a fast growing market, India should be able to take over the regional hubbing role. What is needed is:
1. Infrastructure. This is a 4+ runway airport with ground connections to 50%+ of the potential market within 30 minutes.
2. A passenger friendly transfer process.
3. Reasonable costs. The aviation parts and fuel taxes make Indian airlines uncompetitive for international to international traffic.

To everyone:
Without international to international traffic, Indian air lines have no relief from local seasonality and will thus always be struggling. The high fuel taxes are going to make Indian airlines value always poor. If fuel is 40% to 50% of long haul costs, connecting profit of 5% to 7%, adding a 30% tax makes all international to international connections an automatic loss leader. There is no extra credit for not trying to be competitive.

Either the GoI rationalizes policy, or the jobs go elsewhere. Read "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman. Today's consumer just clicks to buy. Less thought and loyalty than before.

Europe's policies (curfews and lack of hub expansion below market growth) pushed hubbing elsewhere. India's policies opened an opportunity for TK/Pegusus, ME3, and ET. Why not rationalize policy and thus encourage AirAsia to, for example, base A330NEOs in India?

Growth will happen. Instead of Indian airlines to ME3, create a business case for hubbing in India. It won't work without International to International to seed the growth. India is not a mature enough market to have a significant enough network off purely domestic feed; so stop pretending and align policy to make Indian airlines competitive.

E.g., EK to LHR and JFK is only 20% to 30% O&D. Yet there is enough international to international connections to make those routes profitable. Imagine capturing feed from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Singapore, and maybe even New Zealand to fill 30% to 60% of a flight to the EU or USA. That force multiplier adds routes hand over fist (quickly and profitably). It also starves competitive of scale. This inherently pushes premium passengers to the Indian airlines due to:
1. Frequency
2. Fragmentation (more direct flights)
3. Bonus of added high profit O&D as transportation connections tend to result in more business.

Heck, you might see the above nation's connect from their secondary cities to the ME3.

This would have been a 5% to 7% profit boost for Jet. Instead of this shutdown thread, we would be discussing Jet's next destination.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

E.g., EK to LHR and JFK is only 20% to 30% O&D. Yet there is enough international to international connections to make those routes profitable. Imagine capturing feed from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Singapore, and maybe even New Zealand to fill 30% to 60% of a flight to the EU or USA. That force multiplier adds routes hand over fist (quickly and profitably). It also starves competitive of scale. This inherently pushes premium passengers to the Indian airlines due to:
1. Frequency
2. Fragmentation (more direct flights)
3. Bonus of added high profit O&D as transportation connections tend to result in more business.

Heck, you might see the above nation's connect from their secondary cities to the ME3.

India might work for a regional hub but it isn't going to work as an intercontinental hub to the USA. There are two big geography problems - every India-USA is a ULH flight, and India really isn't on the way from any major sources of traffic to the USA. Example: PER-BOM-LAX is 4529+8709 statute miles while PER-SYD-LAX is 2041+7488.

I'm finding the leasor side facinating in these bankruptcies. Aircastle was heavily chastised for the losses in Avianca:
1. Too many aircraft.
2. Out manuevered by BOC who secured their assets quickly.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/424031 ... transcript

I believe this is why Aircastle was first to ground and repossess Jet aircraft. If you read the link, notice how the investors to the leasing company are demanding caution when investing in a country that flouts Capetown? If India mucks with secured financing, expect a response.

I will be following up to see how Brazil is impacted flouting Capetown. At a minimum, Aircastle is going to be far more cautious, in particular with the E2 (which they are heavily invested in).

Does anyone have a list of whom is leasing new aircraft in India?

Lightsaber

MIflyer12 wrote:

India might work for a regional hub but it isn't going to work as an intercontinental hub to the USA. There are two big geography problems - every India-USA is a ULH flight, and India really isn't on the way from any major sources of traffic to the USA. Example: PER-BOM-LAX is 4529+8709 statute miles while PER-SYD-LAX is 2041+7488.

You're aware that all the ME3 hubs are very close to the Indian subcontinent right? What logic you applied to India, would then even apply to all those ME3 hubs. And yet those hubs fly tons of ULH flights despite there being almost NIL O&D to their own hubs.

lightsaber wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

The issue is more around competition and GOI policies that make having a hub at BOM (or anywhere in India) as issue. So it is market realities not some innate problem at BOM.

This I agree with. In a fast growing market, India should be able to take over the regional hubbing role. What is needed is:
1. Infrastructure. This is a 4+ runway airport with ground connections to 50%+ of the potential market within 30 minutes.
2. A passenger friendly transfer process.
3. Reasonable costs. The aviation parts and fuel taxes make Indian airlines uncompetitive for international to international traffic.

To everyone:
Without international to international traffic, Indian air lines have no relief from local seasonality and will thus always be struggling. The high fuel taxes are going to make Indian airlines value always poor. If fuel is 40% to 50% of long haul costs, connecting profit of 5% to 7%, adding a 30% tax makes all international to international connections an automatic loss leader. There is no extra credit for not trying to be competitive.

Either the GoI rationalizes policy, or the jobs go elsewhere. Read "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman. Today's consumer just clicks to buy. Less thought and loyalty than before.

Europe's policies (curfews and lack of hub expansion below market growth) pushed hubbing elsewhere. India's policies opened an opportunity for TK/Pegusus, ME3, and ET. Why not rationalize policy and thus encourage AirAsia to, for example, base A330NEOs in India?

Growth will happen. Instead of Indian airlines to ME3, create a business case for hubbing in India. It won't work without International to International to seed the growth. India is not a mature enough market to have a significant enough network off purely domestic feed; so stop pretending and align policy to make Indian airlines competitive.

E.g., EK to LHR and JFK is only 20% to 30% O&D. Yet there is enough international to international connections to make those routes profitable. Imagine capturing feed from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Singapore, and maybe even New Zealand to fill 30% to 60% of a flight to the EU or USA. That force multiplier adds routes hand over fist (quickly and profitably). It also starves competitive of scale. This inherently pushes premium passengers to the Indian airlines due to:
1. Frequency
2. Fragmentation (more direct flights)
3. Bonus of added high profit O&D as transportation connections tend to result in more business.

Heck, you might see the above nation's connect from their secondary cities to the ME3.

This would have been a 5% to 7% profit boost for Jet. Instead of this shutdown thread, we would be discussing Jet's next destination.

Lightsaber

Very well said.
I would just say I think domestic pax plus SAARC - Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh can be enough to get a AI style hub off the ground. In the region it is only India that has any business to have nonstops to the US and Canada. The traffic flows (business and tourists) are only really substantial from India. I think AI is sort of succeeding on their US nonstops because of flight times that allow connection to a host of smaller cities. This is where you can get the premium (aside from the core nonstop O&D market). Some people will pay more for real end to end connections that get you in at a reasonable time and don't involve long layovers. DEL, BOM, BLR are all good enough airports to transit through. Old DOH, DXB and AUH are not what I would call great connecting airports, but Indians seem to like them. So unclear to me what is wrong with DEL, BOM, BLR or even HYD.

As the deadline for bidding on Jet approaches, Jason Unsworth, who the Indian media has described as a "British entrepreneur", is getting another round of free publicity in the Indian media. This guy has zero cash and zero planes. His experience with airlines is that he was a former flight attendant. He also as "on paper" a company called "Atmosphere Airlines" with zero assets and I am totally perplexed how reputed publications in India are giving him a free ride. Just check today's story in Livemint and the Economic Times

"UK entrepreneur says SBI allows him to bid for Jet Airways"

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 08648.html

https://www.timesnownews.com/business-e ... ays/413876

And here is Jason's twitter feed and he has provided links to stories saying he can bid on jet. My God, he looks like he is 21 years old and I just can't believe how the Indian media is so incredulously stupid.

https://twitter.com/jasonunsworth2?lang=en

BOC Aviation moves on three more Jet Airways 737s

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ma ... 045815.ece

CaliguyNYC wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

The issue is more around competition and GOI policies that make having a hub at BOM (or anywhere in India) as issue. So it is market realities not some innate problem at BOM.

This I agree with. In a fast growing market, India should be able to take over the regional hubbing role. What is needed is:
1. Infrastructure. This is a 4+ runway airport with ground connections to 50%+ of the potential market within 30 minutes.
2. A passenger friendly transfer process.
3. Reasonable costs. The aviation parts and fuel taxes make Indian airlines uncompetitive for international to international traffic.

To everyone:
Without international to international traffic, Indian air lines have no relief from local seasonality and will thus always be struggling. The high fuel taxes are going to make Indian airlines value always poor. If fuel is 40% to 50% of long haul costs, connecting profit of 5% to 7%, adding a 30% tax makes all international to international connections an automatic loss leader. There is no extra credit for not trying to be competitive.

Either the GoI rationalizes policy, or the jobs go elsewhere. Read "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman. Today's consumer just clicks to buy. Less thought and loyalty than before.

Europe's policies (curfews and lack of hub expansion below market growth) pushed hubbing elsewhere. India's policies opened an opportunity for TK/Pegusus, ME3, and ET. Why not rationalize policy and thus encourage AirAsia to, for example, base A330NEOs in India?

Growth will happen. Instead of Indian airlines to ME3, create a business case for hubbing in India. It won't work without International to International to seed the growth. India is not a mature enough market to have a significant enough network off purely domestic feed; so stop pretending and align policy to make Indian airlines competitive.

E.g., EK to LHR and JFK is only 20% to 30% O&D. Yet there is enough international to international connections to make those routes profitable. Imagine capturing feed from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Singapore, and maybe even New Zealand to fill 30% to 60% of a flight to the EU or USA. That force multiplier adds routes hand over fist (quickly and profitably). It also starves competitive of scale. This inherently pushes premium passengers to the Indian airlines due to:
1. Frequency
2. Fragmentation (more direct flights)
3. Bonus of added high profit O&D as transportation connections tend to result in more business.

Heck, you might see the above nation's connect from their secondary cities to the ME3.

This would have been a 5% to 7% profit boost for Jet. Instead of this shutdown thread, we would be discussing Jet's next destination.

Lightsaber

Very well said.
I would just say I think domestic pax plus SAARC - Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh can be enough to get a AI style hub off the ground. In the region it is only India that has any business to have nonstops to the US and Canada. The traffic flows (business and tourists) are only really substantial from India. I think AI is sort of succeeding on their US nonstops because of flight times that allow connection to a host of smaller cities. This is where you can get the premium (aside from the core nonstop O&D market). Some people will pay more for real end to end connections that get you in at a reasonable time and don't involve long layovers. DEL, BOM, BLR are all good enough airports to transit through. Old DOH, DXB and AUH are not what I would call great connecting airports, but Indians seem to like them. So unclear to me what is wrong with DEL, BOM, BLR or even HYD.

There are multiple cities in India that could thrive as hubs if the infrastructure, regulations, and taxes were rationalized.

I didn't mention some countries as... Too many and it takes volume to move the dial. I'm a fan of LCCs that can move people for what they will pay.

Lightsaber

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Some people will pay more for real end to end connections that get you in at a reasonable time and don't involve long layovers. DEL, BOM, BLR are all good enough airports to transit through. Old DOH, DXB and AUH are not what I would call great connecting airports, but Indians seem to like them. So unclear to me what is wrong with DEL, BOM, BLR or even HYD.

You all BOM guys don't have to go through re-checking in bags, getting boarding passes from kiosks - which fail, trying to hustle into airline counter to get the boarding pass, again getting questioned about your carry-on, going in line again for security and barely making your next flight. That too at 3 o'clock in the night after more than 20 hours since one has departed their home in US. Transiting through the mess what is called BOM was one of my worst experience of going back to India.

You all think it's a breeze. Compared to that I will bear the old DOH any day. At least spending an hour at old DOH duty free was far better than this ordeal. After 2006, I have transited through BOM only once (that too on T2) and would not do it again.

You can keep your "good enough" transit airports. We will keep our "not what you call great connecting airports", especially the new DOHs, AUHs & DXBs.

Plus I'm willing to transit though "not great connecting airports" to be in my bed less than 2 hours of touching down in India.

-R

And also it is far better to have 1 less flight IAD-JFK, JFK-BOM, BOM-home town.
AND
feels better to fly in an airlines which show you true sense of appreciation, better food and entertainment.

edealinfo wrote:

If Delta is the loss leader for China ( in the overall interest of corporate contracts), United could use the strategy for India and start SFO to BLR; and ORD to BOM.

does AA not meant to touch India?

US carriers could have moved fast with Jet’s collapse. If they don’t Vistara, in a year, would likely start service to the US.

I could see IAH-BOM or DEL before ORD when they have AI in ORD.

aarbee wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Some people will pay more for real end to end connections that get you in at a reasonable time and don't involve long layovers. DEL, BOM, BLR are all good enough airports to transit through. Old DOH, DXB and AUH are not what I would call great connecting airports, but Indians seem to like them. So unclear to me what is wrong with DEL, BOM, BLR or even HYD.

You all BOM guys don't have to go through re-checking in bags, getting boarding passes from kiosks - which fail, trying to hustle into airline counter to get the boarding pass, again getting questioned about your carry-on, going in line again for security and barely making your next flight. That too at 3 o'clock in the night after more than 20 hours since one has departed their home in US. Transiting through the mess what is called BOM was one of my worst experience of going back to India.

You all think it's a breeze. Compared to that I will bear the old DOH any day. At least spending an hour at old DOH duty free was far better than this ordeal. After 2006, I have transited through BOM only once (that too on T2) and would not do it again.

You can keep your "good enough" transit airports. We will keep our "not what you call great connecting airports", especially the new DOHs, AUHs & DXBs.

Plus I'm willing to transit though "not great connecting airports" to be in my bed less than 2 hours of touching down in India.

-R

And I think you should continue to transit through what ever airport you want to. That is the basis of choice. The same issue you have, many Americans say about transiting through US airports on their way to smaller US towns. But Americans on average fly an American Airline and tolerate the custom / bag recheck on the return flight (outbound should be seamless)t. Many feel it is a better use of their connection time than just sitting n a lounge. To each their own. But choice is never bad. That is what perplexes me about these types of comments. It is a fact that domestic pax absolutely connect through DEL for AI flights and BOM for 9W flights. So it worked for them. But it doesn't work for you. Great. That is it. And net net you are basically saying that India should not have a connecting hub. Makes a ton of sense.

indcwby wrote:

I could see IAH-BOM or DEL before ORD when they have AI in ORD.

How large is the market for IAD - BOM? Is DEL or BOM a bigger market when originating from IAD. If I am not mistaken IAD is a hub for United not American so what is American's most likely route if they wish to open a direct route to India.

Now that UA and DL have an Indian presence, AA might want to have one for the sake of corporate contracts. Note that United lost the Disney contract because they terminated the LAX to JFK flight stating that they only wanted to serve EWR from LAX. In hindsight they claimed they would have been much better off losing money on the LAX to JFK flight (just 1 flight a day), than losing the Disney contract.