osiris30
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:08 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
That said Boeing's total exposure assuming this doesn't drag on for 6+ months is likely less than Airbus's on the 380.

Really? A vs B?
I thought you were better than that. :roll:
(no, seriously - I really did think you better than that)


That wasn't a shot at Airbus. I was trying to frame that from a direct damages perspective the financial impact is likely ess burdensome than the financial pact for a program failure that Airbus has suffered and survived quite well.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:21 pm

osiris30 wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
That said Boeing's total exposure assuming this doesn't drag on for 6+ months is likely less than Airbus's on the 380.

Really? A vs B?
I thought you were better than that. :roll:
(no, seriously - I really did think you better than that)


That wasn't a shot at Airbus. I was trying to frame that from a direct damages perspective the financial impact is likely ess burdensome than the financial pact for a program failure that Airbus has suffered and survived quite well.

In that case I humbly apologize. :white:
(#3 this week, if anyone is counting)
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:33 pm

Boeing will release a fix for the max today. There will be four changes to the operation of the plane. The fixtures will most likely take a day for each plane currently in operation. Then each plane will need to be test flown to ensure compliance. Finally every pilot flying the MAX will need to undergo enhanced training via simulation before being allowed back in the cockpit. More then likely, the first planes could be back in the air by a early as mid to late April.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html
 
StarAC17
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:34 pm

zckls04 wrote:
superbizzy73 wrote:
Help me out here (and, yes, I'm definitely ready to get flamed in this a.net world)...so, United Airlines has the exact same setup as the MAX's that crashed, and they have 23,000 +/- flight hours with the type...and they didn't crash a one of them (yes, I know they have the -9, and the aircraft that crashed were -8...they all have the same flight system. As far as I can understand, United's MCAS is set up the exact same way, with none of the extras that have been mentioned.) I wonder why United hasn't crashed a MAX?


Events don't usually happen in a uniform manner. Once you start talking about an event that happens with a very small probability, as in the case of a plane crash, you simply can't infer that because the event didn't happen in a particular subset of the sample (US flights), it is proof, or even evidence of it being meaningful in some way. That's absolutely statistically invalid. In fact in general, statistics are not that useful for gleaning information about extremely rare events; they only become useful with a large sample size of events.

Now, it may yet transpire that the circumstances of the Lion Air and Ethiopian crashes could not happen in the US, and perhaps further information will come to light that proves that. However looking purely at the statistics, there is no evidence that the MAX crashes were not US airlines is in any way significant. That's simply not what the evidence shows.

Maybe the MCAS system is flawed, but there is a very distinct procedure to get the aircraft to fly properly if a system seems to not be working right as far as I understand, and it's unfortunately pretty obvious that the procedures were not followed.


Indeed. The question is whether that procedure is comprehensive enough, whether it was communicated properly to the pilots, and whether the problem ought to arise in the first place.


There is evidence that the MCAS system isn't in the MAX flight manual.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boeing ... -1.5065842

a380900 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
This has certainly left both the FAA and Boeing with black eyes, and if guilty, rightly so. I would be interested in knowing how Airbus handles a similar system.

The A320 does not need an MCAS. It has fly by wire too.


Qantas flight 72 in 2008 from SIN-PER encountered something similar where an A330 pitched down and I just saw the Mayday on it. Thankfully this crew was at cruise and was able to land safely. It was very similar to MCAS, Airbus installed a fix to allow pilots to disconnected when the computers were giving inconsistent information. In the case of this incident they were getting a stall and overspeed warning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qantas_Flight_72
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
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767333ER
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:50 pm

phollingsworth wrote:
767333ER wrote:
superbizzy73 wrote:

Thank you for the reply. I agree with you 100% about the Honda comment. It seems to me that we are unfortunately becoming more and more dependent on technology, and it looks like it's a crutch that won't go away anytime soon. I guess I can say I'm old enough to miss that analog world.

2 things you’re missing:

First, you’re essentially arguing as many do that rogue MCAS and and should be treated like runaway trim and yet that’s a general assumption that is not true. The MCAS trim can be interrupted and overridden, but as soon as you stop counteracting it, unlike STS, it resumes. Totally different animal than runaway trim. Even if it is to be considered as runaway trim, I don’t myself remember any instance of runaway trim happening that low to the ground. Rogue MCAS is a risk and a factor beyond what a 2 pilot crew should be required to handle. By the time you identify it, shut it off, and crank the trim back you’re probably in bad shape anyway.

Second issue is calling technology a crutch when ironically the 737’s lack of technological advancement causes this problem.


I think the issue is that actually pilots are well versed in dealing with certain cases of runaway trim, e.g. autopilot failures and STS, but not some of the corner cases. This means that the actual practice often stops short of going through the whole checklist. This will have been compounded by the point in the flight, low, and the presence of other potentially confusing information, .e.g stick shaker, IAS Disagree, etc.

Very good point with corner cases. The problem then stems back partly to the fact that the 737 is still using a 1960s era cockpit with updated glass PFD. It still lacks and central CAS and lacks and standard aural warning system. In situations where every second is valuable and time spent looking around the messy cockpit us time wasted. Another issue is having runaway trim this low to the ground which is something that just doesn’t seem to ever happen much exept for with MCAS making the execution of stoping the trim and recovering with these other corner cases a very stressful situation no one should have to deal with
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T
 
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spinotter
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:53 pm

osiris30 wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
That said Boeing's total exposure assuming this doesn't drag on for 6+ months is likely less than Airbus's on the 380.

Really? A vs B?
I thought you were better than that. :roll:
(no, seriously - I really did think you better than that)


That wasn't a shot at Airbus. I was trying to frame that from a direct damages perspective the financial impact is likely ess burdensome than the financial pact for a program failure that Airbus has suffered and survived quite well.


Interesting persective. But if the MAX is judged to be a product with criminal or even just very negligent components in its design leading to 346 deaths?

About Airbus, I'm not doubting you that it's a big number. How much would you estimate the A380 is costing Airbus, broken down if possible?
 
StTim
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:08 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Boeing will release a fix for the max today. There will be four changes to the operation of the plane. The fixtures will most likely take a day for each plane currently in operation. Then each plane will need to be test flown to ensure compliance. Finally every pilot flying the MAX will need to undergo enhanced training via simulation before being allowed back in the cockpit. More then likely, the first planes could be back in the air by a early as mid to late April.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


I do not care when Boeing releases a fix. It is when it has been certified by the appropriate authorities that you can then start to roll out to the fleet.

That certification process could take some time from what I read. If I was the FAA or any other certification authority I would be using an abundance of care in the actions I take next!
 
osiris30
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:17 pm

spinotter wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Really? A vs B?
I thought you were better than that. :roll:
(no, seriously - I really did think you better than that)


That wasn't a shot at Airbus. I was trying to frame that from a direct damages perspective the financial impact is likely ess burdensome than the financial pact for a program failure that Airbus has suffered and survived quite well.


Interesting persective. But if the MAX is judged to be a product with criminal or even just very negligent components in its design leading to 346 deaths?

About Airbus, I'm not doubting you that it's a big number. How much would you estimate the A380 is costing Airbus, broken down if possible?


*IF* the Max is deemed to be criminal (that would be a very tough case to make, especially on the data we have now, that COULD change) or negligent (in the legal sense), it would undoubtedly hurt ALL of Boeing's programs. But statements from folks like the CEO of ET, Lufthansa and others make me believe neither of these are likely to be the case. More likely a series of bad decisions lad to a very bad outcome. Kinda like most crashes anyway.

Re the 380 costs: Not the thread for it, but a quick breakdown; Programme development cost was $25B according to (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47231504) , additionally statements like this: "In 2012, Airbus clarified that in 2015, production costs to build the aircraft would be less than the sales price." (wiki, but discussed here plenty at the time), and we know production rates were slowed around that target date, it is reasonable to assume Airbus never sold a frame of the 380s at a profit or only for a very small window. Let's assume the unit cost for the 380s balanced over the life of the programme (unlikely, but irrelevant), over the lifetime of the 380 programme the impact was at least $25B. Realistically I would put it closer to $30B and then add a massive opportunity cost (had Airbus used the 380 lines to make 320s the difference on their bottom line would have been staggering, the 350XWB could have been likely moved up in production and really hurt Boeing as well. My guess is $30B easy to justify, $50B on the outside. Annualized, around $1.5B to $2.5B per annum.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
osiris30
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:18 pm

StTim wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
Boeing will release a fix for the max today. There will be four changes to the operation of the plane. The fixtures will most likely take a day for each plane currently in operation. Then each plane will need to be test flown to ensure compliance. Finally every pilot flying the MAX will need to undergo enhanced training via simulation before being allowed back in the cockpit. More then likely, the first planes could be back in the air by a early as mid to late April.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


I do not care when Boeing releases a fix. It is when it has been certified by the appropriate authorities that you can then start to roll out to the fleet.

That certification process could take some time from what I read. If I was the FAA or any other certification authority I would be using an abundance of care in the actions I take next!


Boeing cannot release software without regulator approval. In short, when it is available to be installed in your jurisdiction it is certified.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
osiris30
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:30 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Really? A vs B?
I thought you were better than that. :roll:
(no, seriously - I really did think you better than that)


That wasn't a shot at Airbus. I was trying to frame that from a direct damages perspective the financial impact is likely ess burdensome than the financial pact for a program failure that Airbus has suffered and survived quite well.

In that case I humbly apologize. :white:
(#3 this week, if anyone is counting)


All good; When I call out Airbus you will know it. I *try* to be very direct with my language. Often I will be overly verbose so as to avoid people feeling like they need to read between the lines. As I have gotten older I have learned to appreciate being precise with one's language (or trying to at least).
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
phollingsworth
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:33 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Boeing will release a fix for the max today. There will be four changes to the operation of the plane. The fixtures will most likely take a day for each plane currently in operation. Then each plane will need to be test flown to ensure compliance. Finally every pilot flying the MAX will need to undergo enhanced training via simulation before being allowed back in the cockpit. More then likely, the first planes could be back in the air by a early as mid to late April.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


The article actually says it is anticipated that the software update and revised training schedules will be signed off in a couple of weeks. Also, remember that airlines are responsible for their own training regimes and while most use Boeing's regime others will have used their own. In this case there is a possibility that these regimes were updated in the wake of the Lion Air accident and already meet some of the requirements, e.g. simulation time. Obviously, this would have to be approved as an alternate means of compliance with any resulting AD or certification limitation. However, it might mean that some airlines are back in the air much sooner than others.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:26 pm

Articles like this are published every day. I suspect Boeing being busy purposely leaking information to keep stock afloat.

Should not everyone wait at least until French finish their investigation? Who else will green light the plane to fly? FAA? FAA is basically pushed aside for the time being. Their process is investigated by DOT, DOJ, senate. For god's sake, the president had to step in and ground the plane while they "see no reasons for grounding". And then of course there is China with their 100 planes, and who is in trade war with USA.
 
windian425
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:37 pm

With the MAX grounding and possible slowdown in production/delivery, can/will CFM produce/deliver more LEAP engines to Airbus for the A320NEO series?
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:47 pm

Boeing to make safety feature standard on 737 MAX.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN1R81X1

Boeing's decision to charge extra for the AOA sensor was a fatal one in more ways then one and really cost them in the end. They will not charge customers who choose another safety feature known as the AOA indicator option in the future. Sadly, had this been done in the first place, I wonder if more then 300 people would be alive today.
 
Bradin
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:04 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Boeing to make safety feature standard on 737 MAX.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN1R81X1

Boeing's decision to charge extra for the AOA sensor was a fatal one in more ways then one and really cost them in the end. They will not charge customers who choose another safety feature known as the AOA indicator option in the future. Sadly, had this been done in the first place, I wonder if more then 300 people would be alive today.


It is my preference that we stop propagating the belief that 737-Maxes ship with only one AOA sensor.
 
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scbriml
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:07 pm

Bradin wrote:
It is my preference that we stop propagating the belief that 737-Maxes ship with only one AOA sensor.


Or that three is an option!
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Elementalism
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:12 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
zckls04 wrote:
superbizzy73 wrote:
Help me out here (and, yes, I'm definitely ready to get flamed in this a.net world)...so, United Airlines has the exact same setup as the MAX's that crashed, and they have 23,000 +/- flight hours with the type...and they didn't crash a one of them (yes, I know they have the -9, and the aircraft that crashed were -8...they all have the same flight system. As far as I can understand, United's MCAS is set up the exact same way, with none of the extras that have been mentioned.) I wonder why United hasn't crashed a MAX?


Events don't usually happen in a uniform manner. Once you start talking about an event that happens with a very small probability, as in the case of a plane crash, you simply can't infer that because the event didn't happen in a particular subset of the sample (US flights), it is proof, or even evidence of it being meaningful in some way. That's absolutely statistically invalid. In fact in general, statistics are not that useful for gleaning information about extremely rare events; they only become useful with a large sample size of events.

Now, it may yet transpire that the circumstances of the Lion Air and Ethiopian crashes could not happen in the US, and perhaps further information will come to light that proves that. However looking purely at the statistics, there is no evidence that the MAX crashes were not US airlines is in any way significant. That's simply not what the evidence shows.

Maybe the MCAS system is flawed, but there is a very distinct procedure to get the aircraft to fly properly if a system seems to not be working right as far as I understand, and it's unfortunately pretty obvious that the procedures were not followed.


Indeed. The question is whether that procedure is comprehensive enough, whether it was communicated properly to the pilots, and whether the problem ought to arise in the first place.


There is evidence that the MCAS system isn't in the MAX flight manual.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boeing ... -1.5065842

a380900 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
This has certainly left both the FAA and Boeing with black eyes, and if guilty, rightly so. I would be interested in knowing how Airbus handles a similar system.

The A320 does not need an MCAS. It has fly by wire too.


Qantas flight 72 in 2008 from SIN-PER encountered something similar where an A330 pitched down and I just saw the Mayday on it. Thankfully this crew was at cruise and was able to land safely. It was very similar to MCAS, Airbus installed a fix to allow pilots to disconnected when the computers were giving inconsistent information. In the case of this incident they were getting a stall and overspeed warning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qantas_Flight_72


I remember watching a video about that flight. And thinking how terrifying it is for everybody involved when the plane decides to fly itself. Luckily nobody was killed and a fix was available before people died.
 
birdbrainz
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:14 pm

a380900 wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
This has certainly left both the FAA and Boeing with black eyes, and if guilty, rightly so. I would be interested in knowing how Airbus handles a similar system.

The A320 does not need an MCAS. It has fly by wire too.


It does, actually. It's just that the sidestick can't fight it.

https://avherald.com/h?article=47d74074

That said, each aircraft's system has its own merits and pitfalls.
A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
 
Boof02671
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:21 pm

 
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BlueSky1976
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:25 pm

Hopefully, the "fix" doesn't get approved without thorough testing, done by FAA, not boeing.
Tarriffs are taxes. Taxation is theft. You are not entitled to anything.
If it's a Boeing, I'm not going.
 
Sooner787
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:27 pm

windian425 wrote:
With the MAX grounding and possible slowdown in production/delivery, can/will CFM produce/deliver more LEAP engines to Airbus for the A320NEO series?


Possibly, but I think CFM is using this downtime to catch up on Max engine deliveries.
 
Amiga500
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:37 pm

https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... was-flawed

“The FAA was directly involved in the system safety review of” MCAS, Elwell will tell the U.S. Senate aviation and space subcommittee during the first of several expected Congressional hearings on the 737 MAX saga, according to a copy of his prepared remarks obtained by Aviation Week. “FAA engineers and flight test pilots were involved in the MCAS operational evaluation flight test,” Elwell will say, noting that several of the MAX’s 297 certification flight tests included trials of MCAS functions.


To me, that only makes the FAA as incompetent as the system architects at Boeing that came up with the idea.

1. Incorrect classification (HAZARDOUS to CATASTROPHIC)
2. 1x AoA sensor as input
3. Alternating sensors from flight to flight
4. System could enter an infinite loop of stabilizer inputs
5. Not on FCOM

2 and 4 are beyond incompetent.
 
Amiga500
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:38 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
Hopefully, the "fix" doesn't get approved without thorough testing, done by FAA, not boeing.


EASA or another competent regulator please.


[erm... just realised I'm calling EASA competent. Jeez. Best of a bad bunch I guess.]
Last edited by Amiga500 on Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
pugman211
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:38 pm

Boof02671 wrote:



Hmm, interesting, I thought Boeing would of added a display light/aural annunciation of when MCAS is actively working?? Or has that proposal been rejected?
 
dc10lover
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:39 pm

Southwest Boeing 737 Max 8 plane makes emergency landing due to reported engine problem

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/southwes ... ne-problem
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
oschkosch
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:47 pm

dc10lover wrote:
Southwest Boeing 737 Max 8 plane makes emergency landing due to reported engine problem

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/southwes ... ne-problem
It doesn't seem to get better for Boeing!

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Boof02671
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:57 pm

oschkosch wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
Southwest Boeing 737 Max 8 plane makes emergency landing due to reported engine problem

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/southwes ... ne-problem
It doesn't seem to get better for Boeing!

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It was due to an engine, it had nothing to do with Boeing. In your overzealousness, you’ve failed to even read why.
 
Rbgso
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:12 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
Hopefully, the "fix" doesn't get approved without thorough testing, done by FAA, not boeing.


EASA or another competent regulator please.


[erm... just realised I'm calling EASA competent. Jeez. Best of a bad bunch I guess.]


Just curious, if not EASA or FAA, what regulator would be acceptable to you?
 
Morvious
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:41 pm

[*]
Boof02671 wrote:
It was due to an engine, it had nothing to do with Boeing. In your overzealousness, you’ve failed to even read why.


He is not totally wrong though.
The general masses focus on 3 words in such a headline. Boeing, 737 and MAX. It just doesn’t helps Boeing, even if the cause in unrelated to them.
have a good day,

HereThen
 
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speedbored
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:42 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
It was due to an engine, it had nothing to do with Boeing. In your overzealousness, you’ve failed to even read why.

Or maybe, instead of overzealousness, they were just stating the obvious reality that, regardless of the cause or blame, as far as the travelling public is concerned, it was another incident involving that aircraft that is currently in the news for having recently crashed twice, killing everyone.

There is no doubt that, in terms of public perception, this engine failure was yet more bad PR for Boeing and the Max, at a time when they really could have done without it.
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:52 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
art wrote:
I guess that Boeing's liability to airlines is not limited to just the finance costs of the hardware. Are they not liable to compensate airlines for personnel sitting around doing nothing? Correct me if wrong, but I imagine cabin crew trained for the MAX cannot switch to another type unless they have currently valid training for that other type.

Yes, maybe. Still it is not huge money. We are talking about salary for 2000 people. (350 planes x 6 pilots each.) 10K per month each. 20M per month. That's nothing. Fine, maybe add another 40M for flight-attendants. Still nothing.

Add to that the cost on the airlines' part that they will bill Boeing for: parking the MAXes, activating/leasing other planes to cover for the previously scheduled MAX flying, compensation to affected passengers scheduled to be on cancelled MAX flights if there were no replacement aircraft available. What is your revised estimate?
 
IWMBH
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:58 pm

Morvious wrote:
[*]
Boof02671 wrote:
It was due to an engine, it had nothing to do with Boeing. In your overzealousness, you’ve failed to even read why.


He is not totally wrong though.
The general masses focus on 3 words in such a headline. Boeing, 737 and MAX. It just doesn’t helps Boeing, even if the cause in unrelated to them.


This. I was at work today and someone who barely knows that planes have wings was talking about it. You make a lot of people nervous with al the news around the aircraft to the point they start actively avoiding airlines who operate 737MAX planes. I think we underestimate the number of people that don't know engines are made by different companies than the planes, so this news definitely doesn't help.
 
oschkosch
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:01 pm

IWMBH wrote:
Morvious wrote:
[*]
Boof02671 wrote:
It was due to an engine, it had nothing to do with Boeing. In your overzealousness, you’ve failed to even read why.


He is not totally wrong though.
The general masses focus on 3 words in such a headline. Boeing, 737 and MAX. It just doesn’t helps Boeing, even if the cause in unrelated to them.


This. I was at work today and someone who barely knows that planes have wings was talking about it. You make a lot of people nervous with al the news around the aircraft to the point they start actively avoiding airlines who operate 737MAX planes. I think we underestimate the number of people that don't know engines are made by different companies than the planes, so this news definitely doesn't help.
And that was exactly how I meant it! It doesn't matter what the cause was, all people see is bad publicity for Boeing.

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ArgentoSystems
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Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:28 pm

NeBaNi wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
art wrote:
I guess that Boeing's liability to airlines is not limited to just the finance costs of the hardware. Are they not liable to compensate airlines for personnel sitting around doing nothing? Correct me if wrong, but I imagine cabin crew trained for the MAX cannot switch to another type unless they have currently valid training for that other type.

Yes, maybe. Still it is not huge money. We are talking about salary for 2000 people. (350 planes x 6 pilots each.) 10K per month each. 20M per month. That's nothing. Fine, maybe add another 40M for flight-attendants. Still nothing.

Add to that the cost on the airlines' part that they will bill Boeing for: parking the MAXes, activating/leasing other planes to cover for the previously scheduled MAX flying, compensation to affected passengers scheduled to be on cancelled MAX flights if there were no replacement aircraft available. What is your revised estimate?

Even less than my original one.
As was already explained by another poster, Boeing' liability is spelled out in the purchase agreement, and all incidental expenses are excluded.
PS Airline can cancel a ticket with no compensation to the passenger.
 
mwmav8r01
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:22 pm

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:04 pm

Remember when you could come on here for reasonable aviation related discussion? That was great.

Now WN, Boeing and Airbus haters among others rule here.

There has always been optional "safety" features for airplanes and cars. Theres a point where you can train pilots. The only issue I have with this was prior to the first accident there was no mention of MCAS. However. It was a trim runaway. The procedure for trim runaway would have prevented these accidents unless there is something they are not telling us. Then ASAP or NASA reports could have collected information on why these trim runaways were occuring leading to probably the same fix.

The loss of life is horrible but the misinformation and all the blame is a bit misguided in my opinion.
 
RogerMurdock
Posts: 149
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:01 pm

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:08 pm

IWMBH wrote:
I was at work today and someone who barely knows that planes have wings was talking about it. You make a lot of people nervous with al the news around the aircraft to the point they start actively avoiding airlines who operate 737MAX planes.


In the US, that means avoiding three of the four largest airlines in the country. I doubt people will educate themselves sufficiently to truly avoid the MAX. It sure doesn't help the paranoia, however, that many airlines share safety cards between ex. 737-800 and MAX8. Every day people are tweeting at airlines worried that they are flying a currently grounded type.
Last edited by RogerMurdock on Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
speedking
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:00 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:14 pm

oschkosch wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Morvious wrote:
[*]

He is not totally wrong though.
The general masses focus on 3 words in such a headline. Boeing, 737 and MAX. It just doesn’t helps Boeing, even if the cause in unrelated to them.


This. I was at work today and someone who barely knows that planes have wings was talking about it. You make a lot of people nervous with al the news around the aircraft to the point they start actively avoiding airlines who operate 737MAX planes. I think we underestimate the number of people that don't know engines are made by different companies than the planes, so this news definitely doesn't help.
And that was exactly how I meant it! It doesn't matter what the cause was, all people see is bad publicity for Boeing.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


Is there a list of airlines that do not use or the ones that use or are planning to use MAX?
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 3547
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:14 pm

Rbgso wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
Hopefully, the "fix" doesn't get approved without thorough testing, done by FAA, not boeing.


EASA or another competent regulator please.


[erm... just realised I'm calling EASA competent. Jeez. Best of a bad bunch I guess.]


Just curious, if not EASA or FAA, what regulator would be acceptable to you?


China! (tongue firmly in cheek . . .)
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
planecane
Posts: 718
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:16 pm

RogerMurdock wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Morvious wrote:
[*]


In the US, that means avoiding three of the four largest airlines in the country. I doubt people will educate themselves sufficiently to truly avoid the MAX. It sure doesn't help the paranoia, however, that many airlines share safety cards between ex. 737-800 and MAX8. Every day people are tweeting at airlines worried that they are flying a currently grounded type.

Also, once the MAX are back in service for a few months with no more issues (hopefully), everyone will forget about it. If I were Boeing I'd rebrand the MAX as just 737-7, 737-8, 737-9 and 737-10. Non-aviation people won't associate them.
 
RogerMurdock
Posts: 149
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:01 pm

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:17 pm

mwmav8r01 wrote:
It was a trim runaway. The procedure for trim runaway would have prevented these accidents unless there is something they are not telling us.


The problem is that "it was a trim runaway" is something you know definitively only in hindsight. The intermittent nature of MCAS makes it quite insidious. It's different than how runaway trim is trained. (Pilots do, however, routinely experience intermittent trim - STS, for example. The only contemporaneous account of how any pilot perceived MCAS activation was "STS running to the wrong direction".) With all sorts of unreliable airspeed and stick shaker alerts going off, it was difficult to realize that the true problem was a trim problem. It may have seemed like a relatively minor nuisance that could be fought off with the column switch.

In actual experience, six actual pilots failed to diagnose MCAS as runaway trim and cut it out. Apparently only a jumpseater on LionAir had the mental bandwidth to correctly assess the trim situation (and see wheels spinning in front of his face) and recommend the cutout procedure.
Last edited by RogerMurdock on Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
747megatop
Posts: 1673
Joined: Wed May 23, 2007 8:22 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:32 pm

planecane wrote:
RogerMurdock wrote:
IWMBH wrote:


In the US, that means avoiding three of the four largest airlines in the country. I doubt people will educate themselves sufficiently to truly avoid the MAX. It sure doesn't help the paranoia, however, that many airlines share safety cards between ex. 737-800 and MAX8. Every day people are tweeting at airlines worried that they are flying a currently grounded type.

Also, once the MAX are back in service for a few months with no more issues (hopefully), everyone will forget about it. If I were Boeing I'd rebrand the MAX as just 737-7, 737-8, 737-9 and 737-10. Non-aviation people won't associate them.

OR WORSE.....non aviation people (the avg Joe Passenger) could associate the 737 and say OMG..they are the ones that crashed...I am not going to fly!!

In any case; how will rebranding help? Maybe yes..Boeing may rebrand.

IMHO...Boeing id MAXed out. Or rather; the 737 is MAXed out; in other words Boeing is MAXed out on the 737. Time to stop putting lipstick on a pig and roll out a clean sheet airplane (797?) and hope that regulators don't ground that as well (Boeing has achieved 2 groundings in the past 6 years!).
 
speedking
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:00 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:36 pm

planecane wrote:
RogerMurdock wrote:
IWMBH wrote:


In the US, that means avoiding three of the four largest airlines in the country. I doubt people will educate themselves sufficiently to truly avoid the MAX. It sure doesn't help the paranoia, however, that many airlines share safety cards between ex. 737-800 and MAX8. Every day people are tweeting at airlines worried that they are flying a currently grounded type.

Also, once the MAX are back in service for a few months with no more issues (hopefully), everyone will forget about it. If I were Boeing I'd rebrand the MAX as just 737-7, 737-8, 737-9 and 737-10. Non-aviation people won't associate them.


I believe some people have underestimated the power of the internet. We, the flying passengers, are here educating ourselves and following these discussions carefully. Very carefully! And the web doesn't forget.
 
CO953
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:45 pm

Bradin wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
Boeing to make safety feature standard on 737 MAX.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN1R81X1

Boeing's decision to charge extra for the AOA sensor was a fatal one in more ways then one and really cost them in the end. They will not charge customers who choose another safety feature known as the AOA indicator option in the future. Sadly, had this been done in the first place, I wonder if more then 300 people would be alive today.


It is my preference that we stop propagating the belief that 737-Maxes ship with only one AOA sensor.


If I have read this long thread correctly, though, it is one AOA sensor functioning at a time, correct? I thought it was already established upthread that the sensors alternate - sometimes the left sensor, sometimes the right sensor. In my book, that's the same as one sensor....

Please correct me if I have misuinderstood this.
 
CO953
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:51 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Boeing will release a fix for the max today. There will be four changes to the operation of the plane. The fixtures will most likely take a day for each plane currently in operation. Then each plane will need to be test flown to ensure compliance. Finally every pilot flying the MAX will need to undergo enhanced training via simulation before being allowed back in the cockpit. More then likely, the first planes could be back in the air by a early as mid to late April.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/boeing- ... -know.html


The question I have, and I'm probably not alone, is:

Will Boeing be releasing "a" fix, or "the" fix?

I hope this is not going to end up in a corporate decision where they will let the plane fly again with a gentlemen's agreement with the FAA that if the new "fix" screws up, they will adjust.

I don't think I am being hysterical - instead just realistic for market perception (the customers and passengers) when I say that - from this time forward - one more MCAS-related crash and the MAX is done. Stick a fork in it. Enjoy your beer.

Boeing may have got itself into a metaphorical "coffin corner" of sorts with this aircraft, and it remains to be seen whether it can be saved.
 
CO953
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:55 pm

mwmav8r01 wrote:
Remember when you could come on here for reasonable aviation related discussion? That was great.

[snip].


Back when people like me had to pay to comment, it was better. Not that I'm an expert. But as a paid member I do still take each comment I make here seriously, and I don't just blab like it's a free blog.
 
CO953
Posts: 511
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:05 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:02 pm

planecane wrote:
RogerMurdock wrote:
IWMBH wrote:


In the US, that means avoiding three of the four largest airlines in the country. I doubt people will educate themselves sufficiently to truly avoid the MAX. It sure doesn't help the paranoia, however, that many airlines share safety cards between ex. 737-800 and MAX8. Every day people are tweeting at airlines worried that they are flying a currently grounded type.

Also, once the MAX are back in service for a few months with no more issues (hopefully), everyone will forget about it. If I were Boeing I'd rebrand the MAX as just 737-7, 737-8, 737-9 and 737-10. Non-aviation people won't associate them.


I said this on the storage thread, and for some reason the mods deleted my comment. As I can't see anything that was against forum rules, I'll say it again, and hope that it was an anomaly:

If the airlines think that they can re-label the MAX and try to fool the customers, such as American did with the DC-10 Luxury Liner label, they have another think coming. I can't think of much worse than telling the customers that the plane is safe but then hiding its identity during the booking process. It's either safe or it isn't. Either tell the prospective customers that they're flying a MAX, or not. But re-labeling is a slippery slope of the worst kind. If the airlines think that this could work, wait until some passengers catch on, and then refuse to book any 737, because the variant is being hidden. Southwest would be hit the worst, for sure.
 
dk1967
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 7:56 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:06 am

Amiga500 wrote:
https://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/elwell-mcas-issues-do-not-mean-737-max-certification-was-flawed

“The FAA was directly involved in the system safety review of” MCAS, Elwell will tell the U.S. Senate aviation and space subcommittee during the first of several expected Congressional hearings on the 737 MAX saga, according to a copy of his prepared remarks obtained by Aviation Week. “FAA engineers and flight test pilots were involved in the MCAS operational evaluation flight test,” Elwell will say, noting that several of the MAX’s 297 certification flight tests included trials of MCAS functions.


To me, that only makes the FAA as incompetent as the system architects at Boeing that came up with the idea.

1. Incorrect classification (HAZARDOUS to CATASTROPHIC)
2. 1x AoA sensor as input
3. Alternating sensors from flight to flight
4. System could enter an infinite loop of stabilizer inputs
5. Not on FCOM

2 and 4 are beyond incompetent.


Of the moving on 4000 comments, it's looking like this one is the most spot on.

Admitted Boeing fanboy here, because … why not pick a team.

But from a design and engineering perspective, how this version of MCAS ended up implemented is mind boggling. Everyone in design and engineering is taught to imagine the consequences, and this is clearly an example of lack of imagination. The fix that is now being rolled out is first year teaching/engineering stuff. Amiga500's number 4 alone is insane given the system you're impacting. Unlimited nose down inputs to an airframe based on a single sensor input? This isn't the IFE, it's the goddamn horizontal stabilizer.

And I don't think it's Boeing being evil. I think it's Boeing being lazy. And I'm not sure what's worse given the outcome.
 
mwmav8r01
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:22 pm

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:47 am

RogerMurdock wrote:
mwmav8r01 wrote:
It was a trim runaway. The procedure for trim runaway would have prevented these accidents unless there is something they are not telling us.


The problem is that "it was a trim runaway" is something you know definitively only in hindsight. The intermittent nature of MCAS makes it quite insidious. It's different than how runaway trim is trained. (Pilots do, however, routinely experience intermittent trim - STS, for example. The only contemporaneous account of how any pilot perceived MCAS activation was "STS running to the wrong direction".) With all sorts of unreliable airspeed and stick shaker alerts going off, it was difficult to realize that the true problem was a trim problem. It may have seemed like a relatively minor nuisance that could be fought off with the column switch.

In actual experience, six actual pilots failed to diagnose MCAS as runaway trim and cut it out. Apparently only a jumpseater on LionAir had the mental bandwidth to correctly assess the trim situation (and see wheels spinning in front of his face) and recommend the cutout procedure.



Thats what I was saying. Training. And time in the seat. I promise you the minute my airplane starts trimming an opposite direction, im gunna assume the worst first. But hey thats just me.
 
mwmav8r01
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:22 pm

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:54 am

CO953 wrote:
mwmav8r01 wrote:
Remember when you could come on here for reasonable aviation related discussion? That was great.

[snip].


Back when people like me had to pay to comment, it was better. Not that I'm an expert. But as a paid member I do still take each comment I make here seriously, and I don't just blab like it's a free blog.


Agreed.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 229
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide

Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:07 am

speedking wrote:
planecane wrote:
RogerMurdock wrote:

In the US, that means avoiding three of the four largest airlines in the country. I doubt people will educate themselves sufficiently to truly avoid the MAX. It sure doesn't help the paranoia, however, that many airlines share safety cards between ex. 737-800 and MAX8. Every day people are tweeting at airlines worried that they are flying a currently grounded type.

Also, once the MAX are back in service for a few months with no more issues (hopefully), everyone will forget about it. If I were Boeing I'd rebrand the MAX as just 737-7, 737-8, 737-9 and 737-10. Non-aviation people won't associate them.


I believe some people have underestimated the power of the internet. We, the flying passengers, are here educating ourselves and following these discussions carefully. Very carefully! And the web doesn't forget.


Yep, and safe spaces. You have those too.
As for the subject itself seems the whole media issue is starting to wind down.
On top of that ET management expressed "belief in Boeing" so I'm pretty sure they got a sweet deal for future purchases and are very happy at this moment.
Boeing will fix the plane and In the end nobody but geeks will remember this.
It's the nature (and power) of the internet that something new will shortly consume the masses and will feed on their insecurities and paranoia.

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