Plenty of 744F operators worldwide that are going to need replacements in the next
few years


Some may choose the 777F but there will
always be a requirement for outsize loads
and the carriers that accommodate this only have one option


So who will order next?

Kalitta? Western Global? Asiana?

I expect atlas to order more and maybe the joe near airlines.

I don’t know the answer, but I can say who it won’t be: FX, who is not done buying 777Fs.

N328KF wrote:

I don’t know the answer, but I can say who it won’t be: FX, who is not done buying 777Fs.

FX hasn't operated 747s in over two decades.

Maybe Cargolux?

What are SQs plans for freight fleet replacement? I believe they have a fleet of 7 x 744F (all new builds also I think?)
Whenever I see their freighters they always seem to have the nose open, which is obviously good news for the dash8..

Cargolux, Korean, Cathay Pacific and Atlas all seem like possibilities

Qatar has a strategic use for them now.

While I don’t expect FX to order the 74, it was heavily rumored to be looked at again last year. Logic being to keep the 74s busy flying charters till peak and the supplement the trunk Airlift durIng December. Was dismissed due to the small (~10 aircraft) subfleet and the rippleing effect of crew training costs.

What about El Al? The Israeli government has historically used El Al 747-200s to transport military equipment from the United States.

Does anyone know why FedEx won't operate 747's? Most other large cargo operators seem to find value in them.

Tn55337 wrote:

Does anyone know why FedEx won't operate 747's? Most other large cargo operators seem to find value in them.

Ask yourself 'what can the 748F with 4 engines do that the 777F with 2 engines can't do'? The answer is Oversized cargo and a bit more payload (83,100 lbs). FX also likely sees a benefit of running more frequencies of 777Fs. I also believe that the turnaround time is quicker on the 777F.

Tn55337 wrote:

Does anyone know why FedEx won't operate 747's? Most other large cargo operators seem to find value in them.

FX does not get into the oversize cargo business. Even their own internal FedEx Trade utilizes air carriers, not their own planes.

CALMSP wrote:

Tn55337 wrote:

Does anyone know why FedEx won't operate 747's? Most other large cargo operators seem to find value in them.

FX does not get into the oversize cargo business. Even their own internal FedEx Trade utilizes air carriers, not their own planes.

Neither does UPS (not the airline division anyway) yet they are soon to have the largest 747F fleet ever.

Per someone in the know at Boeing, there are 62 firm orders from 7 airlines:
(8) CC
(5) OZ
(10) CV
(2) QY
(14) K4
(3) SQ
(20) 5X

What is it about FX and 5X that requires this sort of fleet? I mean to say, why is this sort of parcel traffic not as apparently common in Europe? Sure, they have DHL, and some UPS and FedEx presence, but the business model in Europe (and surrounding areas) just seems so different.

N328KF wrote:

What is it about FX and 5X that requires this sort of fleet? I mean to say, why is this sort of parcel traffic not as apparently common in Europe? Sure, they have DHL, and some UPS and FedEx presence, but the business model in Europe (and surrounding areas) just seems so different.

Are there cargo trains between Asia and Europe?

Saudi Cargo might order some , they seem to like it , mix cargo fleet 777 & 748.

I see an order for maybe 3 more by QR. I'm actually surprised that LY doesn't consider a single frame.

N328KF wrote:

What is it about FX and 5X that requires this sort of fleet? I mean to say, why is this sort of parcel traffic not as apparently common in Europe? Sure, they have DHL, and some UPS and FedEx presence, but the business model in Europe (and surrounding areas) just seems so different.

Ground network. I can’t speak for FX, but brown moves a lot of air through the regular ground network. DHL has a strong ground network they can route a lot of the air packages through and still maintain time in transit.

No use having an air network for all your air packages when it is significantly less expensive to move the same package on a semi. The numbers I’ve seen to move the same package in the air vs the ground is mind boggling, and I do it for a living.

32andBelow wrote:

N328KF wrote:

What is it about FX and 5X that requires this sort of fleet? I mean to say, why is this sort of parcel traffic not as apparently common in Europe? Sure, they have DHL, and some UPS and FedEx presence, but the business model in Europe (and surrounding areas) just seems so different.

Are there cargo trains between Asia and Europe?

Yes, but more of a gimmick by the Chinese than a regular thing. It costs way more expensive than sea freight for non urgent shipments, and yet is a lot slower than a plane for urgent shipments.

jetblueguy22 wrote:

N328KF wrote:

What is it about FX and 5X that requires this sort of fleet? I mean to say, why is this sort of parcel traffic not as apparently common in Europe? Sure, they have DHL, and some UPS and FedEx presence, but the business model in Europe (and surrounding areas) just seems so different.

Ground network. I can’t speak for FX, but brown moves a lot of air through the regular ground network. DHL has a strong ground network they can route a lot of the air packages through and still maintain time in transit.

No use having an air network for all your air packages when it is significantly less expensive to move the same package on a semi. The numbers I’ve seen to move the same package in the air vs the ground is mind boggling, and I do it for a living.

FX moves a lot of Express freight on the ground too - but the big difference here is whereas UPS is just UPS, FedEx is not just FedEx. FedEx Ground and FedEx Freight packages do not move on aircraft, only Express does, so economy of scale works more in favor of UPS flying the larger 747.

How about Kalitta they have 24 active 747-400 according to Airfleets

https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Kalitta%20Air.htm

The 777F is going to be the future and for the huge special stuff their will be specialists. Volga's huge freighters will handle most of that. 98% of what gets carried on a 744 F can go o a 777 F or A330 F. The 748 probably has another 5 years and then its history.

WRT Fedex not needing 747s. It seems a curious decision to me. Don't they run wingtip flights between international sort hubs every day? Somewhat akin to what the airlines call "bridge flights" between their hubs albeit in a more compressed time frame. Surely it must be more efficient to fly a 747 MEM-CDG than 2 777s 5 minutes apart. Or two 747s verus two 777s and an MD11. Frankly, I could see a need for large fleet of 747s for Fedex, its very different than the passenger market where frequency rules and capacity discipline is so important. The cargo carriers have yet to destroy their business model thru internecine warfare.

Then again maybe MEM just can't physically take any more packages in one night and some need to go to IND.

SteelChair wrote:

WRT Fedex not needing 747s. It seems a curious decision to me. Don't they run wingtip flights between international sort hubs every day? Somewhat akin to what the airlines call "bridge flights" between their hubs albeit in a more compressed time frame. Surely it must be more efficient to fly a 747 MEM-CDG than 2 777s 5 minutes apart. Or two 747s verus two 777s and an MD11. Frankly, I could see a need for large fleet of 747s for Fedex, its very different than the passenger market where frequency rules and capacity discipline is so important. The cargo carriers have yet to destroy their business model thru internecine warfare.

Then again maybe MEM just can't physically take any more packages in one night and some need to go to IND.

IND is already blown out way over capacity. They are in a multi-year expansion that will give them something like 120 gates. But for now, no.