Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:33 am

In the Icelandic news this morning, link unfortunately in Icelandic only:

https://www.mbl.is/vidskipti/frettir/20 ... d_bordinu/

The article states that FI has sent a formal request to both manufacturers for discussions on solutions to replace the 757 fleet. This would presumably mean the 797/MOM at B and A321neoLR at A, although it could also potentially include some widebodies to replace the 767. The article also states that FI has three potential paths to go forward that they're working from - one that includes a mixed A/B fleet and the other two include either an Airbus-only or Boeing-only fleet.

Sources at mbl say that FI is very happy with the MAX and that it has exceeded expectations, but the fact of the matter is it's a little bit too small and lacks the critical 500-1000nm of range the 757 has over it for destinations such as SEA and DEN.

Pudelhund · Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:37 am

he article also states that FI has three potential paths to go forward that they're working from - one that includes a mixed A/B fleet and the other two include either an Airbus-only or Boeing-only fleet.

Well it is a bit sad to know that they've ruled out the UAC option. /s

Seriously, the article states three possibilities that are basically all the possibilities?

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:48 am

Pudelhund wrote:
he article also states that FI has three potential paths to go forward that they're working from - one that includes a mixed A/B fleet and the other two include either an Airbus-only or Boeing-only fleet.

Well it is a bit sad to know that they've ruled out the UAC option. /s

Seriously, the article states three possibilities that are basically all the possibilities?

What it states is that Icelandair already has all three possibilities mapped out, including every way they'd affect their operations, and is working out from all three of them until a further decision is made to narrow it down.

keesje · Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:23 am

Probably the 737-10 & NMA..

BubbaYugga · Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:30 am

I guess this is where Scotty's Transparent Aluminum fish tank gets invented...

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:43 am

The paper itself has more in-depth coverage, and there the 3 possible paths forward are explained further;

1. Icelandair orders the current A320neo family along with A321XLRs. All Boeing-aircraft, including the 737, would then be sold and FI proceeds as an Airbus-only airline.

2. FI keeps the 757 longer than planned, adding a few A321s to fill in as stopgap for the older 757s that need to be retired, and then orders the 797/NMA that starts arriving in the mid-2020s so it stays Boeing-only in the long term.

3. FI decides it's now large enough to operate a split fleet, paving the way for a 737/A321XLR/potentially new widebody fleet outlook.

Interesting that all 3 plans include Airbus aircraft in some capacity... :scratchchin:

jmmadrid · Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:47 am

At first, this piece of news is a bit hilarious, it describes the situation as if ICELANDAIR just woke up this morning and realised they have an aging fleet of 757s that need replacing.

They must have been "negotiating" for ages, and IMHO this is really an ultimatum to BOEING: "We're tired of your promises (or nonsense), and we can't wait anymore. Show us what you've got or we'll go Airbus 321".

At the same time, it's a message to Airbus: You can ask us out, we'll say yes.

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:54 am

jmmadrid wrote:
At first, this piece of news is a bit hilarious, it describes the situation as if ICELANDAIR just woke up this morning and realised they have an aging fleet of 757s that need replacing.

They must have been "negotiating" for ages, and IMHO this is really an ultimatum to BOEING: "We're tired of your promises (or nonsense), and we can't wait anymore. Show us what you've got or we'll go Airbus 321".

At the same time, it's a message to Airbus: You can ask us out, we'll say yes.

Agreed.

kelvin933 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:57 am

keesje wrote:
Probably the 737-10 & NMA..

737-10 range is to short to for the FI network (the aircraft can only operate the shortest of the Iceland-North America routes) While NMA (whatever that turns out to be) probably works for all of the FI network, it will only be available after the last 757 has left Fi (currently planned in 2025).

StudiodeKadent · Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:36 pm

A321neoLR is the closest direct 757 replacement.

But IIRC, Icelandair also had some 767s, which the MoM would be a better replacement for.

So... 737 MAX + MoM seems the most logical. Although 737 MAX + A321LR could feasibly be quicker but it would result in either lower capacity or more route fragmentation than the MoM (and would have lower maximum range).

737MAX + A321LR + MoM? Its possible. The A321LR is larger than the 737-9, and would have longer range, so it would be a "thinner, longer routes" jet, while the MoM would serve Icelandair's biggest trunk routes.

OA940 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:01 pm

If Boeing wants to keep waiting to launch the 797 this is what's gonna happen. Airlines will wait for only a certain amount of time. At the same time the A321LR is the perfect size for a 752 replacement. FI could also handle a few 788s or 338s. Tbh I see them going mixed fleet in the future. They could get the A321LR in a couple of years.

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:13 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
A321neoLR is the closest direct 757 replacement.

But IIRC, Icelandair also had some 767s, which the MoM would be a better replacement for.

So... 737 MAX + MoM seems the most logical. Although 737 MAX + A321LR could feasibly be quicker but it would result in either lower capacity or more route fragmentation than the MoM (and would have lower maximum range).

737MAX + A321LR + MoM? Its possible. The A321LR is larger than the 737-9, and would have longer range, so it would be a "thinner, longer routes" jet, while the MoM would serve Icelandair's biggest trunk routes.

You're correct, FI currently has 4 767s, 27 757s and 4 737s with 4 more on the way this month and 9 more on order.

SEPilot · Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:13 pm

It looks to me that this is aimed squarely at Boeing; Crap or get off the pot. They have been all Boeing for a long time, but Boeing is not making the plane they need. Airbus is. This is the perfect illustration as to why Boeing is working on the NMA, and the question is, will enough airlines buy it to make it worth doing?

lightsaber · Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:14 pm

OA940 wrote:
If Boeing wants to keep waiting to launch the 797 this is what's gonna happen. Airlines will wait for only a certain amount of time. At the same time the A321LR is the perfect size for a 752 replacement. FI could also handle a few 788s or 338s. Tbh I see them going mixed fleet in the future. They could get the A321LR in a couple of years.

This is a fish or cut bait message. Due to the wording, it also tells Airbus they need more payload at range (A321xlr). I agree they could handle a few widebodies, but not on the A338 being a possibility. The NMA is what they need. The lowest cost per flight. The limited cargo will hurt them, but not badly.

tealnz · Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:31 pm

No hint they're looking to change their business model (multiple routes, high frequency services hubbing at Reykjavik taking advantage of narrow-body economics...) Among carriers with mainly single-aisle fleets they're also unusual in needing 757-type range. Technically the 797 would be great - a bit more range, a bit more capacity. But can they get it at a cost that lets them maintain current fares? Doubt it. Plus there's the risk: Boeing will work to execute 797 introduction much better than the 787 but even so the FI board would have to factor in timetable slippage (eg for engines). FI are not really big enough to absorb that kind of risk. This takes us back to Airbus. On paper FI are a perfect candidate for the XLR - which, unlike the 321LR, will have useful hold capacity over and above luggage. And more range than the LR.

qm001 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:32 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
At first, this piece of news is a bit hilarious, it describes the situation as if ICELANDAIR just woke up this morning and realised they have an aging fleet of 757s that need replacing.

They must have been "negotiating" for ages, and IMHO this is really an ultimatum to BOEING: "We're tired of your promises (or nonsense), and we can't wait anymore. Show us what you've got or we'll go Airbus 321".

At the same time, it's a message to Airbus: You can ask us out, we'll say yes.

Completely agree, this is Airbus' to lose right now!

Revelation · Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This is a fish or cut bait message. Due to the wording, it also tells Airbus they need more payload at range (A321xlr). I agree they could handle a few widebodies, but not on the A338 being a possibility. The NMA is what they need. The lowest cost per flight. The limited cargo will hurt them, but not badly.

Sure, but Boeing has bigger fish to fry. They have their nets out and are heading for Georges Bank. FL relatively speaking are small fry, too many to make a meal.

WIederling · Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:17 pm

kelvin933 wrote:
737-10 range is to short to for the FI network (the aircraft can only operate the shortest of the Iceland-North America routes)

Easy fix:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F.P.1

pabloeing · Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:29 pm

B737-10 and B797 is the logical choice......

Finn350 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:41 pm

SRQKEF wrote:
The paper itself has more in-depth coverage, and there the 3 possible paths forward are explained further;

1. Icelandair orders the current A320neo family along with A321XLRs. All Boeing-aircraft, including the 737, would then be sold and FI proceeds as an Airbus-only airline.

Is this a realistic scenario? Who would buy their 757 fleet or are the planes old enough to be scrapped?

frigatebird · Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:42 pm

lightsaber wrote:
OA940 wrote:
If Boeing wants to keep waiting to launch the 797 this is what's gonna happen. Airlines will wait for only a certain amount of time. At the same time the A321LR is the perfect size for a 752 replacement. FI could also handle a few 788s or 338s. Tbh I see them going mixed fleet in the future. They could get the A321LR in a couple of years.

This is a fish or cut bait message. Due to the wording, it also tells Airbus they need more payload at range (A321xlr). I agree they could handle a few widebodies, but not on the A338 being a possibility. The NMA is what they need. The lowest cost per flight. The limited cargo will hurt them, but not badly.

But wouldn't the 797 be able to carry more fish than the 757? Then its cargo limitations wouldn't hurt FI as much.

IIRC, the latest news around the NMA/797 was that formal launch was delayed until 2020, but ATO could come this year. Still, even if FI was angling for 797 launch customer status this doesn't guarantee the NMA will be launched, so if I was FI I would now proceed with leasing a couple of A321LR's. Pretty sure short term leases like 6 years would not be too much of a problem. Makes it possible to see how it works out for FI, with the advantage of expanding the A321 fleet if Boeing doesn't launch the 797 after all. Didn't Norwegian expect to receive some A321LR's short term? I believe they were not so sure they could use them any more, as their expansion plans were a bit over ambitious (and their financials not keeping up). Leasing some short term to FI could be the smart thing to do.

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:46 pm

Finn350 wrote:
SRQKEF wrote:
The paper itself has more in-depth coverage, and there the 3 possible paths forward are explained further;

1. Icelandair orders the current A320neo family along with A321XLRs. All Boeing-aircraft, including the 737, would then be sold and FI proceeds as an Airbus-only airline.

Is this a realistic scenario? Who would buy their 757 fleet or are the planes old enough to be scrapped?

TF-ISZ, a 24 year old ex-AA 757, was the first FI 757 to be scrapped last month. As the age of the 757 fleet ranges from 16 to 29 years, I'd expect that some of the newer examples would have life in them as freighters while the older ones would definitely be scrapped.

However, I for one hope the type soldiers on in FI's fleet for many years to come! The most beautiful aircraft in the world IMO. :cloudnine:

MIflyer12 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:49 pm

So, they buy some 737-10s and keep the 757s and 767s on routes that need range in case NMA slips to 2027 or so. There are lots of North American routes - U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, eastern Canada - (and even more frequencies) where a Max 10 will work fine. The fact it can't do KEF-SFO shouldn't be disqualifying.

As for Revelation's remarks on a fish fry, no, carriers the size of Icelandair don't drive multi-$Billion investments, not any more than Qantas has the purchasing mass to get a dozen 10,000nm aircraft.

keesje · Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:27 pm

If Icelanair wait a few months (Paris Airshow), there might be another option, a new 101t A321 subfamily with revised fuel capacity.

Some carriers use containers / dry ice for transporting e.g. seafood. But bulk loading might be a very good option too..

3700 and 4700NM ranges for Reykjavik

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=%0d%0a&R=3700NM%40REK,4700NM%40REK%0d%0a&MS=wls&MR=1800&MX=720x360&PM=b:disc7%2b%22%25U%2212

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:58 pm

keesje wrote:
If Icelanair wait a few months (Paris Airshow), there might be another option, a new 101t A321 subfamily with revised fuel capacity.

Some carriers use containers / dry ice for transporting e.g. seafood. But bulk loading might be a very good option too..

3700 and 4700NM ranges for Reykjavik

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=%0d%0a&R=3700NM%40REK,4700NM%40REK%0d%0a&MS=wls&MR=1800&MX=720x360&PM=b:disc7%2b%22%25U%2212

If the A321XLR will really have the advertised 4700nm range, then I really think it's Airbus' order to lose no matter if it's to form a mixed fleet with the 737MAX or an Airbus-only fleet. That map really illustrates how well it would serve the FI network, the whole of the continental US, Europe, Mexico and even Northern India would be in play from KEF. That could mean a possibility to serve smaller markets in California (SMF, SAN etc) and an obvious opportunity to try out routes further to the East than their current European network.

VS11 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:09 pm

I see mostly A321LR for the 757 and a few second-hand B777/A330 to replace the 767.

Galwayman · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:11 pm

A320/ A321lr would look great in Icelandair colours

American 767 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:19 pm

A321NeoLR and 797 would be nice. That would be the ideal fleet at Icelandair in the future.
I know this topic is all about 757 replacement at Icelandair, but I hope they continue to keep those for years to come. American will get rid of theirs in 2023 or so, 2025 at the latest the last one will leave, so maybe Icelandair can consider taking some of them if they still have some life left, and convert a few of them to freighters. I want to fly on an Icelandair 757 before the type gets phased out.

Blerg · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:21 pm

What's the logic of having both the A321neo and MAX in the fleet? Why not stick to one of the two?

WIederling · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:21 pm

VS11 wrote:
I see mostly A321LR for the 757 and a few second-hand B777/A330 to replace the 767.

A330-800NEO.
you could fill the hold to the gills with fish :-)

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:25 pm

VS11 wrote:
I see mostly A321LR for the 757 and a few second-hand B777/A330 to replace the 767.

The triple is a bit large so I don't think that's in the picture. I could very well see them keep the 767s for 5-10 more years and then get 2nd hand non-terrible teen 787s when those start hitting the market. A330, either 2nd hand or new neos, could also be an option. However, this is pure speculation on my part.

VS11 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:32 pm

WIederling wrote:
VS11 wrote:
I see mostly A321LR for the 757 and a few second-hand B777/A330 to replace the 767.

A330-800NEO.
you could fill the hold to the gills with fish

It might be too difficult to justify the cost of a brand new 338. That’s why I suggested second hand.

jworks158 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:32 pm

Might this article released today be related???? Airbus penciling in orders for A321XLR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1QA1Z1

VS11 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:37 pm

SRQKEF wrote:
VS11 wrote:
I see mostly A321LR for the 757 and a few second-hand B777/A330 to replace the 767.

The triple is a bit large so I don't think that's in the picture. I could very well see them keep the 767s for 5-10 more years and then get 2nd hand non-terrible teen 787s when those start hitting the market. A330, either 2nd hand or new neos, could also be an option. However, this is pure speculation on my part.

The 777 might be bigger but the numbers could still work if acquired on the cheap. There will be lots of 777s hitting the market when BA, AA, UA start to retire them. (Unless AA and UA decide to use them as 767 replacement themselves).

I agree with the idea of cheaper 787s being an option down the line too.

DarthLobster · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:37 pm

BubbaYugga wrote:
I guess this is where Scotty's Transparent Aluminum fish tank gets invented...

That’s the ticket, laddie...

SRQKEF · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:43 pm

jworks158 wrote:
Might this article released today be related???? Airbus penciling in orders for A321XLR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1QA1Z1

According to the newspaper, FI will make the decision before the end of 3Q 2019. While I'm not ruling out that the two are connected, I think FI hasn't committed yet owing to the fact they only sent out a formal negotiation offer today.

seahawk · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:45 pm

They need the 797 and they want the 797. Add one launch customer.

MADPYRO · Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:55 pm

VS11 wrote:
SRQKEF wrote:
VS11 wrote:
I see mostly A321LR for the 757 and a few second-hand B777/A330 to replace the 767.

The triple is a bit large so I don't think that's in the picture. I could very well see them keep the 767s for 5-10 more years and then get 2nd hand non-terrible teen 787s when those start hitting the market. A330, either 2nd hand or new neos, could also be an option. However, this is pure speculation on my part.

The 777 might be bigger but the numbers could still work if acquired on the cheap. There will be lots of 777s hitting the market when BA, AA, UA start to retire them. (Unless AA and UA decide to use them as 767 replacement themselves).

I agree with the idea of cheaper 787s being an option down the line too.

The 777s being retired by BA will be around or almost 30 years old and will have no life left by then....

VS11 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:09 pm

MADPYRO wrote:
VS11 wrote:
SRQKEF wrote:

The triple is a bit large so I don't think that's in the picture. I could very well see them keep the 767s for 5-10 more years and then get 2nd hand non-terrible teen 787s when those start hitting the market. A330, either 2nd hand or new neos, could also be an option. However, this is pure speculation on my part.

The 777 might be bigger but the numbers could still work if acquired on the cheap. There will be lots of 777s hitting the market when BA, AA, UA start to retire them. (Unless AA and UA decide to use them as 767 replacement themselves).

I agree with the idea of cheaper 787s being an option down the line too.

The 777s being retired by BA will be around or almost 30 years old and will have no life left by then....

Nothing wrong with 30-year old planes but they don’t have to buy the oldest nor necessarily from BA. There are more than 500 777-200/ER built in the late 90s/early 2000s.

WIederling · Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:39 pm

VS11 wrote:
MADPYRO wrote:
VS11 wrote:

The 777 might be bigger but the numbers could still work if acquired on the cheap. There will be lots of 777s hitting the market when BA, AA, UA start to retire them. (Unless AA and UA decide to use them as 767 replacement themselves).

I agree with the idea of cheaper 787s being an option down the line too.

The 777s being retired by BA will be around or almost 30 years old and will have no life left by then....

Nothing wrong with 30-year old planes but they don’t have to buy the oldest nor necessarily from BA. There are more than 500 777-200/ER built in the late 90s/early 2000s.

the oldest 777 is just 23 years old.
88 delivered for the -200 base model, 422 for the -200ER first 8 years of production are 420 frames.
( but why did the -200 basic model deliver so few :-)

Dreamflight767 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:40 pm

I read another article not too long ago about FI's A/C situation.

It basically said FI is trying to keep their 757s as long as possible since, at time, there is no ideal replacement. They need the range and lift for their US west coast/Alaska OPS with space for the fish (cargo) they move.

The 737 MAX doesn't have the range/cargo combo they need. And, while the 321LRs does have more range and greater cargo, its either or because of the space and weight of the aux. fuel tanks.

The article also said FI knows it isn't big enough to provide enough pressure on A or B to make/develop an airplane specific to its needs.

In other words, the 757 is perfect for FI and they feel a little screwed.

VS11 · Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:02 pm

Dreamflight767 wrote:
I read another article not too long ago about FI's A/C situation.

It basically said FI is trying to keep their 757s as long as possible since, at time, there is no ideal replacement. They need the range and lift for their US west coast/Alaska OPS with space for the fish (cargo) they move.

The 737 MAX doesn't have the range/cargo combo they need. And, while the 321LRs does have more range and greater cargo, its either or because of the space and weight of the aux. fuel tanks.

The article also said FI knows it isn't big enough to provide enough pressure on A or B to make/develop an airplane specific to its needs.

In other words, the 757 is perfect for FI and they feel a little screwed.

If they move so much cargo, then it might be prudent to explore older 777/330 converted into Combi’s - reduce pax capacity, increase cargo capacity. They may need to be more creative in view of their situation.

ILNFlyer · Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:23 pm

I dont think they will wait for the MOM. I suggest they will go for the new A321

LDRA · Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:27 pm

The whole Icelandair thing is pretty fishy

smartplane · Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:40 pm

SEPilot wrote:
It looks to me that this is aimed squarely at Boeing; Crap or get off the pot. They have been all Boeing for a long time, but Boeing is not making the plane they need. Airbus is. This is the perfect illustration as to why Boeing is working on the NMA, and the question is, will enough airlines buy it to make it worth doing?

You are right.

The Boeing Board has frozen future 737 development, because they erode the business case for an all new model. And Airbus are doing the same with the A320, though mitigating by drip feeding 'what we could do' rumours.

Unless there is an air frame game changer around the corner, all step changes will come from new engine technology, which can re-engine existing designs, and volume which the 737 and A320 already enjoy.

Devilfish · Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:01 pm

I always love the clever turns of phrase whenever a thread on FI comes up! :cheerful:

WIederling wrote:
A330-800NEO.
you could fill the hold to the gills with fish

And Airbus might be predisposed to offer them a great deal to add to the A338's paltry order tally. Plus it's in certification testing now. :bigthumbsup:

Revelation · Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:17 pm

Finn350 wrote:
Who would buy their 757 fleet or are the planes old enough to be scrapped?

I don't think anyone will bite on them.

MIflyer12 wrote:
As for Revelation's remarks on a fish fry, no, carriers the size of Icelandair don't drive multi-$Billion investments, not any more than Qantas has the purchasing mass to get a dozen 10,000nm aircraft.

That's why they call it fishing instead of catching.

scbriml · Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:28 pm

This order should go to Boeing, but Airbus might be able to level the playing field with a curve ball out of left field in the shape of the A321XLR.

Too many metaphors? :crazy:

Revelation · Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
This order should go to Boeing, but Airbus might be able to level the playing field with a curve ball out of left field in the shape of the A321XLR.

Too many metaphors?

That would be a real fluke! :biggrin:

Erebus · Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:
This order should go to Boeing, but Airbus might be able to level the playing field with a curve ball out of left field in the shape of the A321XLR.

Too many metaphors?

That would be a real fluke!

Someone will flounder for sure. :white:

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