Curious as to why they haven’t moved yet
Is the new airport unfinished?

The new airport won’t be finished for another decade.

They need $25 billion+ (dollar, euro) to o build a large enough airport.

Now I'm being lazy. I recall someone posting a larger estimate that seemed plausible. What it comes to is Dubai is too broke to build out the airport. O&D demand for the city isn't high enough and too many competitors are cropping up (IST, ADD, Chinese airlines,PER-LHR).

EK could use a built up DWC. The major work keeps getting postponed. So much so that 2030 would be optimistic at this point.

Neat idea. Tens of billions short for realization.

Lightsaber

Quite a few big projects in Dubai have been left unfinished in the last few years.

The growth is unsustainable. Even if they stop construction and just maintain what they have, once the huge international workforce leaves the local property market will collapse.

Put into perspective on DWC's capacity vs. Realization:

http://m.gdnonline.com/details.html?id= ... rs-in-2018

DWC:
Actual passengers: 900,000 pax/yr
Capacity: 26,500,000 pax/yr

To accommodate EK a capacity over 90,000,000 pax/yr is the minimum.

The local property market is out of balance. Too much high end, not enough middle class housing or worker dorms.

EK has to survive the new IST expanding and keep growing.

EK is no longer the Boggieman. They won't disappear. But until profits go up substantially, they are no threat to anyone as DXB constraints keep them in check.

Think of all the tiny airports that dwarf DWC's passenger figures.

DXB is where the action is. To grow DWC, significantly more O&D traffic is needed for it has few connections.

Lightsaber

At this rate, never.

They not even moving ops to DWC during the runway closure. They chose to operate on a reduced schedule.

lightsaber wrote:

The local property market is out of balance. Too much high end, not enough middle class housing or worker dorms.



Lightsaber

Very true. It is hard to find a new or own place with a low to medium income in DXB.

Aren’t they at capacity limit at DXB, meaning that if 777X is going to replace A380, they have to move to DWC? Of course it will take several years beyond 2021 that the A380 fleet is going to dwindle.

It’s a 100bnAED project. The only chance is if EY fold and the Abu Dhabi govt goes all in. High speed train shuttles from both downtowns with check-ins at said points.

But even though that’s the only strategy that makes sense, it won’t happen. The politics within the emirates clouds logic & pragmatism.

It’s Catch 22 for EK, they were promised DWC 2020 but the GFC ended any chance of it. DXB too small to grow, Dubai govt too poor to build.

If the teens were the EK decade, the twenties belong to TK.

Never. Is the answer

Personally I think it’ll stay what it currently is, specialist cargo, LCC’s and a car park for EK’s aircraft on downtime.

One thing that moving to DWC would hinder EK and other airlines using it, would be that it’s right in the middle of nowhere, it’s a good 40 minute drive to the Marina on a good day! Granted, this may change in the future, but at current, it’s cr*p!

OMAA

I don't really see how EK could just continue expanding anyway. Route preference goes from best to worst and there are only so many places you can send an A380 or 777 profitably. Not only that but EK has FZ below them using up many of the routes which EK might just be able to get away with using.

This might be a long shot, but why not, instead of consolidating all the flights to one airport (DXB), EK provide services for both and a connecting rail/ shuttle service between DXB and DWC for less popular connections?

alric8 wrote:

I don't really see how EK could just continue expanding anyway. Route preference goes from best to worst and there are only so many places you can send an A380 or 777 profitably. Not only that but EK has FZ below them using up many of the routes which EK might just be able to get away with using.

Once DWC fully comes online, and with the terminal & runway capacity it brings, the argument for operating the A380 becomes nullified. You saw that with the recent switch from the EK A380 to the A330neo/A350 orders.

DWC is a case where the initial plan was just too big. Had they shot for a 120 million pax terminal vs 200 million it is likely that the costs would have been 3/4 what they have to complete it. Instead they have a half finished really big airport.

phatfarmlines wrote:

alric8 wrote:

I don't really see how EK could just continue expanding anyway. Route preference goes from best to worst and there are only so many places you can send an A380 or 777 profitably. Not only that but EK has FZ below them using up many of the routes which EK might just be able to get away with using.

Once DWC fully comes online, and with the terminal & runway capacity it brings, the argument for operating the A380 becomes nullified. You saw that with the recent switch from the EK A380 to the A330neo/A350 orders.

Not completely nullified; there will still be destinations where EK can not get (much) more slots (LHR, YYZ, AMS, most of India, come to mind). But you are right that an important driver for capacity with EK is DXB airport.

It's pretty crazy when you add Sharjah and Abu Dhabi into the mix, each with their own airlines (Air Arabia and Etihad).

EK/Dubai just do not have the funds to build out DWC. Bummer for EK. Good for the competition.

Croden wrote:

This might be a long shot, but why not, instead of consolidating all the flights to one airport (DXB), EK provide services for both and a connecting rail/ shuttle service between DXB and DWC for less popular connections?

When booking and comparing to DOH, AUH, IST, ADD, MUC, or say backtracking from LHR, would you accept the extra 90 to 120 minute delay each direction? Not only that, the shuttle costs money to operate. Split hubs have a history of failing. Do people fly NRT to HND? Rarely. Ok, my brother loves Tokyo and has free housing with friends, but other than that, what fraction of people can accept the long delays?

P2P will get the highest paying (yield) customers. Yield drops with delays. The era of bridge hubbing (using multiple airports, either via a flight or a shuttle buss or train) is coming to an end as most of the premium passengers just do not have the time.

Think of yourself as the passenger. Have you read "The world is flat" by Thomas Freedman? Customers today can compare many options quickly from their computer (or phone). Why would anyone, other than a monopoly destination, accept such an arrangement (excluding those vacationing or doing business in Dubai anyway)? If one must connect, time is money. Or, the longer the connection, the less people are willing to pay. EK's margins are *barely* profitable as is. They cannot afford to drop them.

Dubai just needs to figure out new tax revenue (more business) to pay for DWC expansion.

Lightsaber

JayinKitsap wrote:

DWC is a case where the initial plan was just too big. Had they shot for a 120 million pax terminal vs 200 million it is likely that the costs would have been 3/4 what they have to complete it. Instead they have a half finished really big airport.

Dubai couldn't afford 120 million either.

It takes billions of usd (or euros) to build out the airport.

I'm not sure where you are getting 1/2 built. The airport is tiny today: https://binged.it/2GPQfS0

That is an airport with 26 million/pax capacity hauling a whole 900,000 people per year.

120 million pax per year still would have required another:
$2.5 billion usd (or euro) for runways and initial taxiways.
$6.5 billion us for the most minimilistic terminal (probably needs $10 billion for all the shopping revenue).
$3.5 billion for parking and rental car access.
$1.5 billion for new firestations, air traffic control towers, maintenance hangers, fuel distribution, and other airport stuff.
Then we need airport hotels... There is a few billion more.

Plus roads and rail to the airport. Another few billion.
Money Dubai just doesn't have and my estimates are probably low by half.

Dubai cannot afford DWC built out at this time.

Lightsaber

I remember visiting dubai in 2006. The Al Maktoum plans were huge at the time.

peterinlisbon wrote:

It's pretty crazy when you add Sharjah and Abu Dhabi into the mix, each with their own airlines (Air Arabia and Etihad).

Air Arabia with 321LRs & SHJ is perfectly positioned to get Indigo’s (for example) Indian customers to EU. Watch that space. In fact I’m surprised they haven’t gone after Wizz & Indigo to create a LCC competitor to QR.EK by connecting the regions - Air Arabia MENA, Wizz EU, Indigo IN. Better yet meet in DWC. I know plenty of expat families who take Wizz/PGS from DWC up to EU then another LCC to home cities. EK too expensive for a family of five going home for holidays.

Thee are two factors to the tectonic shift against the dedicated hub model - 787 type bypass & low cost comp with the LR from secondary city hubs.

Without a large domestic customer base EK yields will be eroded by lower cost copycat plays & point to point. Look at what the Chinese are doing to CX.

TK has three advantages now - domestic demand, right sized aircraft, & a mega hub.

For EK employess - the saving grace is Dubai needs EK - but the party is over.

My pet scenario:
DWC is fully developed with enough terminals and related infrastructure to handle 120 million passengers a year. EK, along with everyone moves there. DXB closes down completely. The former airport site and surrounding areas (mainly light industrial, warehouses, garages etc.) would become very valuable real estate, considering how close it is to Dubai city. A railway station is built in that area, with high-speed rail access to DWC. Quite a few obstacles though, such as financing, and how to smoothly orchestrate the transition.

Another oft-cited solution is: close (or significantly downsize DXB and AUH) and move/merge EK+EY at DWC. But I don't see either city giving up an airport. A possible solution might be the AF-KL model; distinct brands, separate hubs, and each airline focuses on markets where they are more dominant (does EY have any?). Or maybe by then, EY will have thrown in the towel and turn into Gulf Air 2.0 (i.e. a mainly regional airline plus London).

worldranger wrote:

peterinlisbon wrote:

It's pretty crazy when you add Sharjah and Abu Dhabi into the mix, each with their own airlines (Air Arabia and Etihad).

Air Arabia with 321LRs & SHJ is perfectly positioned to get Indigo’s (for example) Indian customers to EU. Watch that space. In fact I’m surprised they haven’t gone after Wizz & Indigo to create a LCC competitor to QR.EK by connecting the regions - Air Arabia MENA, Wizz EU, Indigo IN. Better yet meet in DWC. I know plenty of expat families who take Wizz/PGS from DWC up to EU then another LCC to home cities. EK too expensive for a family of five going home for holidays.

Thee are two factors to the tectonic shift against the dedicated hub model - 787 type bypass & low cost comp with the LR from secondary city hubs.

Without a large domestic customer base EK yields will be eroded by lower cost copycat plays & point to point. Look at what the Chinese are doing to CX.

TK has three advantages now - domestic demand, right sized aircraft, & a mega hub.

For EK employess - the saving grace is Dubai needs EK - but the party is over.

Yes, TK was being strangled by its small airport up until now, but once the new airport opens there's room for a lot of expansion. TK fly to almost every city in Europe with narrowbody aircraft and their widebodies can connect all of that to pretty much anywhere in Asia, whilst using less fuel than European competitors. Plus their home city has 20 million inhabitants.

strangeplanes wrote:

The new airport won’t be finished for another decade.

That's probably true