Yes I know this sector of the market is small and shrinking but now that Airbus has announced an end to the A380 production does this mean stronger prospects for the 747-8 and 777X?

I don't think so. There's little demand for VLAs anyway and the 777 can hardly be called that. Besides that, the A350 is more or less equally as big as the 777 so there's still competition on that size.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

I don't think so. There's little demand for VLAs anyway and the 777 can hardly be called that. Besides that, the A350 is more or less equally as big as the 777 so there's still competition on that size.

Can’t the -9 be counted as a VLA?

Yeah the 747-8 Will sell in hundreds now...

It will be interesting (or maybe not) to see how airlines such as LH, AF, BA, SQ and KE will replace their A380‘s at the beginning of the 2030ies.

B779 seems to be the logical choice.

Other (rather exotic) options could be:
B748i, especially in case of LH and KE, but will they be still available?
Second-hand A380‘s

There still a demand for VLA, call it a niche, but it’s definitely there.

2025 an A350-2000 with new engines comes. This will mean that the b748 is one engine generation behind. 777x will both be more heavy then the A350 and without the advantage of better engines.

We will probably end up 2025 with A350 900; 1000; 2000 combined with b787 900; 1000 and a new b797.

Next will be what happens with a330 replacement.

FlyRow wrote:

Yeah the 747-8 Will sell in hundreds now...

I’ve already stated that I know the VLA market is small and shrinking. I never pretended that it will sell in droves

The reason for VLAs in the past was that they offered greater range and per seat economics than anything else. That is no longer the case. And while the 779 does have slightly better economics than anything else right now, it is not by a big enough margin to make it really attractive to most airlines.

If you define 777-9X as an VLA, then yes, Boeing obvously has a monopoly on the VLA market.

A350-2000 with Ultrafan engines will absolutely destroy the 777-9 and give Airbus the monopoly on the VLA market (insofar as such market makes any conceptual sense - it doesn't). Except this time the Airbus monopoly will be profitable, unlike with A380.

MileHFL400 wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

I don't think so. There's little demand for VLAs anyway and the 777 can hardly be called that. Besides that, the A350 is more or less equally as big as the 777 so there's still competition on that size.

Can’t the -9 be counted as a VLA?

If you want to but it isn’t much bigger than the 777-300ER. There is not a separate VLA segment any more. There are smaller planes that compete with the 777-9 so it has no monopoly as shown by its poor sales.

Geoff

MileHFL400 wrote:

FlyRow wrote:

Yeah the 747-8 Will sell in hundreds now...

I’ve already stated that I know the VLA market is small and shrinking. I never pretended that it will sell in droves

It will be interesting to watch the general reporting "tone" in the industry and public media.
If suddenly quad VLA are back in good odor and likened to near sliced bread advantageousnes ..

New airplanes market is funny.
Ten years ago everyone wanted the A380 and a new version of the B747.
So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water. Also B made big investments on the -8i and -8F versions of the Queen.
Both planes are way far from being profitable, maybe only the B748 is, but the A380, with less units produced than the A340 (all versions) is far from breaking even, as many experts say.

Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...

FatCat wrote:

New airplanes market is funny.
Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...

Some might, some might not. There is a reason why the American carriers are not into buying VLAs and that is their multi-hub strategy, which is gaining traction all over the world. So apart from airlines like SIA or EK (that can only have one hub) most other airlines are better served by using more direct flights from more airports instead of forcing all traffic through a central hub.

FatCat wrote:

New airplanes market is funny.
Ten years ago everyone wanted the A380 and a new version of the B747.
So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water. Also B made big investments on the -8i and -8F versions of the Queen.
Both planes are way far from being profitable, maybe only the B748 is, but the A380, with less units produced than the A340 (all versions) is far from breaking even, as many experts say.

Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...

Boeing 757 'Ugly Duckling'? How can you say that? It's still one of the most beautiful airliners ever built, and I'm sure many on this forum will agree with me.

clipperlondon wrote:

FatCat wrote:

New airplanes market is funny.
Ten years ago everyone wanted the A380 and a new version of the B747.
So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water. Also B made big investments on the -8i and -8F versions of the Queen.
Both planes are way far from being profitable, maybe only the B748 is, but the A380, with less units produced than the A340 (all versions) is far from breaking even, as many experts say.

Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...

Boeing 757 'Ugly Duckling'? How can you say that? It's still one of the most beautiful airliners ever built, and I'm sure many on this forum will agree with me.

Well it wasn’t a massive seller was it? Far newer planes have a far outsold it such as the 777 and 787!

Matt6461 wrote:

A350-2000 with Ultrafan engines will absolutely destroy the 777-9 and give Airbus the monopoly on the VLA market (insofar as such market makes any conceptual sense - it doesn't). Except this time the Airbus monopoly will be profitable, unlike with A380.

Yeah Boeing is just going to sit on their hands and let Airbus take the market. Oh man you guys are funny.

TTailedTiger wrote:

Matt6461 wrote:

A350-2000 with Ultrafan engines will absolutely destroy the 777-9 and give Airbus the monopoly on the VLA market (insofar as such market makes any conceptual sense - it doesn't). Except this time the Airbus monopoly will be profitable, unlike with A380.

Yeah Boeing is just going to sit on their hands and let Airbus take the market. Oh man you guys are funny.

Doing the discussion in "High Klingon" rhetorics, I see. )

clipperlondon wrote:

FatCat wrote:

New airplanes market is funny.
Ten years ago everyone wanted the A380 and a new version of the B747.
So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water. Also B made big investments on the -8i and -8F versions of the Queen.
Both planes are way far from being profitable, maybe only the B748 is, but the A380, with less units produced than the A340 (all versions) is far from breaking even, as many experts say.

Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...

Boeing 757 'Ugly Duckling'? How can you say that? It's still one of the most beautiful airliners ever built, and I'm sure many on this forum will agree with me.

Not on the a e s t h e t i c meaning of that. 757 is indeed one of the most beautful plane ever built. But it wasn't a best seller, I mean, it was some sort of "niche" plane

Matt6461 wrote:

A350-2000 with Ultrafan engines will absolutely destroy the 777-9 and give Airbus the monopoly on the VLA market (insofar as such market makes any conceptual sense - it doesn't). Except this time the Airbus monopoly will be profitable, unlike with A380.

Yup, sure. First off that plane doesn’t even exist on paper yet. We ll see the 797 before we see a further stretch of the A350

Hmmm...

1) Under the right conditions I could see perhaps 20 748i being build in the future. All aircraft have routes that are just perfect for it. Of course, that demand by itself would never create such an aircraft... But, it already exist, is still in the order book. Admittedly, certain interior cabin parts contracts would have to be restarted - which could be done.

My anticipated speculation here would be EK who would like to maintain a VLA with luxury features like a bar and showers for certain routes. The upper deck of the 747 provides that option where the A350 and 777 do not. Should EK do it and restart the 8i line, a few other airlines might order another few...

2) I am not sure that the 748 (i or F) gets left behind in engine technology. It shares the same engine as the 787, and certainly more PIPs are coming. I also foresee an engine upgrade on the 787 in the mid 2020's to increase performance; and that same upgraded engine could almost certainly be used on the 748 at minimal cost.

3) The 748F lives on for a long time...

Have a great day,

MileHFL400 wrote:

clipperlondon wrote:

FatCat wrote:

New airplanes market is funny.
Ten years ago everyone wanted the A380 and a new version of the B747.
So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water. Also B made big investments on the -8i and -8F versions of the Queen.
Both planes are way far from being profitable, maybe only the B748 is, but the A380, with less units produced than the A340 (all versions) is far from breaking even, as many experts say.

Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...

Boeing 757 'Ugly Duckling'? How can you say that? It's still one of the most beautiful airliners ever built, and I'm sure many on this forum will agree with me.

Well it wasn’t a massive seller was it? Far newer planes have a far outsold it such as the 777 and 787!

That's because Boeing never came with a NG for the framne and thought (dearly wrongly...) that it had no future. It must regret now and, should the B797 be a narrow body, it will show. If it is a kind of B787-7 as some think will be, then it will handle the whole segment to Airbus which is developing the A321LR.
Long range NB Aricrafts do have a future and I am sure you will find many at Boeing that agree with this and regret having ditched the B757 way too early.

MileHFL400 wrote:

clipperlondon wrote:

FatCat wrote:

New airplanes market is funny.
Ten years ago everyone wanted the A380 and a new version of the B747.
So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water. Also B made big investments on the -8i and -8F versions of the Queen.
Both planes are way far from being profitable, maybe only the B748 is, but the A380, with less units produced than the A340 (all versions) is far from breaking even, as many experts say.

Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...

Boeing 757 'Ugly Duckling'? How can you say that? It's still one of the most beautiful airliners ever built, and I'm sure many on this forum will agree with me.

Well it wasn’t a massive seller was it? Far newer planes have a far outsold it such as the 777 and 787!

And now everyone wants the capabilities of the 757. The bottom line is that it was an airplane way before its time. “Wrong time wrong time”. Lets move onto something better and more efficient than the 757 please. As far as A and B are concerned, “Lets move onto something better and more efficient than the 757 please“! There is no such thing as the “do it all airplane nowadays”. The technology just isn’t there yet.

FlyRow wrote:

Yeah the 747-8 Will sell in hundreds now...

Sure will.

I'd expect the 747-8NEO to get the 797 engines. Built as a simple NEO with no other changes.

It will be able to carry around 20% more freight over the same distance. Or burn 20% less fuel with the sane payload.

If the 797 enters service in 2025 then the 747-8NEO could launch then and enter service a few years later.

2175301 wrote:

2) I am not sure that the 748 (i or F) gets left behind in engine technology. It shares the same engine as the 787, and certainly more PIPs are coming. I also foresee an engine upgrade on the 787 in the mid 2020's to increase performance; and that same upgraded engine could almost certainly be used on the 748 at minimal cost.

The 787 engines are a size up above the 747-8's. New 787 engines will probably have a bigger fan and will not fit the 747-8. The 797 engines would be much closer to the right size. Probably not the initial engines but as they mature and get a thrust bump they will come right up to the 747-8 thrust level.

BOSAero wrote:

MileHFL400 wrote:

clipperlondon wrote:

Boeing 757 'Ugly Duckling'? How can you say that? It's still one of the most beautiful airliners ever built, and I'm sure many on this forum will agree with me.

Well it wasn’t a massive seller was it? Far newer planes have a far outsold it such as the 777 and 787!

And now everyone wants the capabilities of the 757. The bottom line is that it was an airplane way before its time. “Wrong time wrong time”. Lets move onto something better and more efficient than the 757 please. As far as A and B are concerned, “Lets move onto something better and more efficient than the 757 please“! There is no such thing as the “do it all airplane nowadays”. The technology just isn’t there yet.

Specifically on the engine side of the equation.

RJMAZ wrote:

FlyRow wrote:

Yeah the 747-8 Will sell in hundreds now...

Sure will.

I'd expect the 747-8NEO to get the 797 engines. Built as a simple NEO with no other changes.

It will be able to carry around 20% more freight over the same distance. Or burn 20% less fuel with the sane payload.

If the 797 enters service in 2025 then the 747-8NEO could launch then and enter service a few years later.

2175301 wrote:

2) I am not sure that the 748 (i or F) gets left behind in engine technology. It shares the same engine as the 787, and certainly more PIPs are coming. I also foresee an engine upgrade on the 787 in the mid 2020's to increase performance; and that same upgraded engine could almost certainly be used on the 748 at minimal cost.

The 787 engines are a size up above the 747-8's. New 787 engines will probably have a bigger fan and will not fit the 747-8. The 797 engines would be much closer to the right size. Probably not the initial engines but as they mature and get a thrust bump they will come right up to the 747-8 thrust level.

Already looking forward to the ten-daily who will buy the 747-8NEO, What route will the 747-8NEO be perfect for, Will the 747-8NEO be the best plane ever, Why won't ... buy the 747-8NEO.

Good to know that airliners.net is thinking ahead, we first had the 757MAX, the 797 today and we've already found the next plane to "discuss" on this site.

Matt6461 wrote:

A350-2000 with Ultrafan engines will absolutely destroy the 777-9 and give Airbus the monopoly on the VLA market (insofar as such market makes any conceptual sense - it doesn't). Except this time the Airbus monopoly will be profitable, unlike with A380.

In your dreams....like the A380 destroyed the 747...You.re a funny guy..Is this the outcome of playing to much "destroying" games?Do you think Boeing is doing nothing if Airbus is putting the Ultrafan on their 350?

The 747-8 will go on as the 767 from now, no major engine upgrades and it will only be available as a freighter.

Boeing has said the 747-8I is still open for BBJ orders, but I doubt that they will keep offering it for too long from now.

The 777-9 will be the biggest passenger plane on the market, we know how successful it has been compared to the smaller wide bodies.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

I don't think so. There's little demand for VLAs anyway and the 777 can hardly be called that. Besides that, the A350 is more or less equally as big as the 777 so there's still competition on that size.

The 777-9 seating is 405 range which makes it larger than the 747-100/200 & slightly smaller than the 747-400 both of which were VLA's. So yes the 777-9 is a VLA aircraft.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

I don't think so. There's little demand for VLAs anyway and the 777 can hardly be called that. Besides that, the A350 is more or less equally as big as the 777 so there's still competition on that size.

The A350-1000 is 777-300ER sized, the 777-9 is notably larger capacity

rbavfan wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

I don't think so. There's little demand for VLAs anyway and the 777 can hardly be called that. Besides that, the A350 is more or less equally as big as the 777 so there's still competition on that size.

The 777-9 seating is 405 range which makes it larger than the 747-100/200 & slightly smaller than the 747-400 both of which were VLA's. So yes the 777-9 is a VLA aircraft.

Just remember the classifications move with time. As new meta's are adopted, views are changed thus characteristics that might have defined a VLA in the '70s are now characteristics shared between VLA's and ULH's with VLA's taking some and not others and same with the ULH's. B747-100 and -200 were the largest of their time and so it would be kinda off to place them in "second position" but now that aircraft have changed with the times and economy, VLA's are now larger (A380/B748) with the same range but not in the same position range-wise as it was in the '70s, and ULH's with smaller capacity than the B747-200 but a similar ratio of market domination in terms of range

Momo1435 wrote:

The 747-8 will go on as the 767 from now, no major engine upgrades and it will only be available as a freighter.

Boeing has said the 747-8I is still open for BBJ orders, but I doubt that they will keep offering it for too long from now.

The 777-9 will be the biggest passenger plane on the market, we know how successful it has been compared to the smaller wide bodies.

1. You can hardly measure success before it’s even taken off for its first flight.

2. It’s sold way more copies than the A380, or the A340, or the A350-1000 and like I said above before it’s taken flight. Even if it ever sells a couple of hundred more units it will still turn a profit.

BOSAero wrote:

And now everyone wants the capabilities of the 757.

True.
The capabilities ... but not the cost.

The 757 design lack was on the economic side. Too much structure, outmoded construction.

MileHFL400 wrote:

Yes I know this sector of the market is small and shrinking but now that Airbus has announced an end to the A380 production does this mean stronger prospects for the 747-8 and 777X?

747-8 only really has a future as a freighter. Its a fantastic cargo jet, but as a passenger jet its quite suboptimal.

777X is "too much airplane" for most airlines. Its very specifically designed for the purpose of making Sir Tim Clark feel happy in his pants. Its a great airplane if you have demanding performance + capacity requirements. But the only airline which really has such requirements and hasn't ordered the jet yet is Qantas, and its possible that a modified A350-1000 would give them what they need too.

If Boeing start price-gouging with 777-9s, you can be sure Airbus will introduce an A350-1000 stretch that has similar capacity, comparable range, and superior CASM (it would have the advantage of commonality with pre-existing A350 fleets, and the A350 will have a larger install base than the 777X).

There is no VLA market. Super Hubs and VLAs are socks and sandals. Some may claim to make it work, but no one can.

Momo1435 wrote:

The 747-8 will go on as the 767 from now, no major engine upgrades and it will only be available as a freighter.

A simple NEO program isn't expensive. Maybe $2 billion at the most. That could easily provide an additional 100 orders to the program due to the better fuel burn, CASM and payload range. 100 aircraft even with a small profit margin can easily pay for the NEO development.

It would probably be perfectly timed as the bulk of the A380's will be retired around 2030.

dtw2hyd wrote:

There is no VLA market. Super Hubs and VLAs are socks and sandals. Some may claim to make it work, but no one can.

Disagree.
And it's not only me - it is written in the pages of commercial aviation history.
B747s worked so well that in certain markets were used for domestic routes in Japan, China, even the US of A - the latter market ditched VLA on domestic because, as said before, US airlines bid on multi hub strategy.
If you've flown in China recently, as I did, you surey saw how packed are those A333s on domestic routes. And given the frequency of their flights, no rocket science is needed to understand that even today, a VLA may have its market - and indeed it has.

RJMAZ wrote:

Momo1435 wrote:

The 747-8 will go on as the 767 from now, no major engine upgrades and it will only be available as a freighter.

A simple NEO program isn't expensive. Maybe $2 billion at the most. That could easily provide an additional 100 orders to the program due to the better fuel burn, CASM and payload range. 100 aircraft even with a small profit margin can easily pay for the NEO development.

It would probably be perfectly timed as the bulk of the A380's will be retired around 2030.

Just stop. The 74 is dead after the current orders are filled and CV-25s are replaced. The next VLA will be a 777x/A3XX replacement twin with new engines and a wider cabin than the 777 for more comfortable 3-4-3. Hump tops, boob noses and quads are done.

RJMAZ wrote:

Momo1435 wrote:

The 747-8 will go on as the 767 from now, no major engine upgrades and it will only be available as a freighter.

A simple NEO program isn't expensive. Maybe $2 billion at the most. That could easily provide an additional 100 orders to the program due to the better fuel burn, CASM and payload range. 100 aircraft even with a small profit margin can easily pay for the NEO development.

It would probably be perfectly timed as the bulk of the A380's will be retired around 2030.

Boeing will not do a 747 MAX for just 100 orders, they will offer the 77X to the airlines that want a large plane. The cargo operators will also not push for a MAX. There's a bigger chance that they will re-engine the 777X instead, even if it's only 5 years after EIS.

FatCat wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

There is no VLA market. Super Hubs and VLAs are socks and sandals. Some may claim to make it work, but no one can.

Disagree.
And it's not only me - it is written in the pages of commercial aviation history.
B747s worked so well that in certain markets were used for domestic routes in Japan, China, even the US of A - the latter market ditched VLA on domestic because, as said before, US airlines bid on multi hub strategy.
If you've flown in China recently, as I did, you surey saw how packed are those A333s on domestic routes. And given the frequency of their flights, no rocket science is needed to understand that even today, a VLA may have its market - and indeed it has.

Agreed the VLA market is not dead at all. People are assuming it is dead simply because the A380 got cancelled. The A380 got cancelled because it could not be built at a profit when sold at a price the market was willing to pay.

The A380 may have outsold the 747-8 but Airbus was selling at a loss to get those sales. People then assume the A380 is better because it sold more. Boeing makes a profit on every 747-8 built. Boeing could have sold 1000 747-8's if they priced them well below cost.

FatCat wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

There is no VLA market. Super Hubs and VLAs are socks and sandals. Some may claim to make it work, but no one can.

Disagree.
And it's not only me - it is written in the pages of commercial aviation history.
B747s worked so well that in certain markets were used for domestic routes in Japan, China, even the US of A - the latter market ditched VLA on domestic because, as said before, US airlines bid on multi hub strategy.
If you've flown in China recently, as I did, you surey saw how packed are those A333s on domestic routes. And given the frequency of their flights, no rocket science is needed to understand that even today, a VLA may have its market - and indeed it has.

This raises a question: If there is a need for a VLA with a maximum range of 3-4000 miles why has one not been built? The obvious answer is that abusing long ranged VLAs works in that minority of cases where it is needed, but not enough to build a special optimized lighter weight model.

I suspect I already know the answer to this question, but is there anything that Boeing could do to up the sales of the 748? I'm referring to engine upgrades and some serious PIPs. Better question, would it be financially feasible to do so given the relatively smallish umber produced?

Aptivaboy wrote:

I suspect I already know the answer to this question, but is there anything that Boeing could do to up the sales of the 748? I'm referring to engine upgrades and some serious PIPs. Better question, would it be financially feasible to do so given the relatively smallish umber produced?

They could, make it two engined with nearly the same capacity and call it a 777-8 or 777-9.

Wait, they did that.

--> Quads are a thing of the past, the economics just don't add up.

FatCat wrote:

...
If you've flown in China recently, as I did, you surey saw how packed are those A333s on domestic routes. And given the frequency of their flights, no rocket science is needed to understand that even today, a VLA may have its market - and indeed it has.

It may look odd from a slot restricted hub perspective, but it is only one end of a route. A333, particularly A333R is the perfect aircraft, no need to built up Code-F infrastructure.

You cannot replace all RJ routes at ORD with VLAs.

You wouldn't operate an A380 on a hypothetical Heathrow-Barra route just because Heathrow is slot restricted. It would still be a Twin Otter.

N14AZ wrote:

It will be interesting (or maybe not) to see how airlines such as LH, AF, BA, SQ and KE will replace their A380‘s at the beginning of the 2030ies.

B779 seems to be the logical choice.

Other (rather exotic) options could be:
B748i, especially in case of LH and KE, but will they be still available?
Second-hand A380‘s

There still a demand for VLA, call it a niche, but it’s definitely there.

The real question is can one make a VLA product better than 779 and make a profit selling it?

Matt6461 wrote:

A350-2000 with Ultrafan engines will absolutely destroy the 777-9 and give Airbus the monopoly on the VLA market (insofar as such market makes any conceptual sense - it doesn't). Except this time the Airbus monopoly will be profitable, unlike with A380.

I think people in Seattle and Cincinnati may see this threat coming.

They probably can't head it off at the pass but they know the threat is existential (at least for that segment of the market) and may have to make extraordinary efforts to remain viable.

Or they may decide the VLA sector has as much investment as it can bear, and double down on NMA, NSA, etc.

Everyone involved is paying for the sins of the past.

The A350 is excellent but can't do 10x in Y with industry standard levels of "comfort" due to its birth as A350 Mk1 and attempts to address the A358 market.

As they stretch they run in to the bendiness problem.

The 77X is excellent but the FUBAR known as 787 derailed both Y1 (NSA) and Y3 so we have MAX instead of Y1 and 777neo+nwo instead of Y3.

Revelation wrote:

The real question is can one make a VLA product better than 779 and make a profit selling it?
...

The A350 is excellent but can't do 10x in Y with industry standard levels of "comfort" due to its birth as A350 Mk1 and attempts to address the A358 market.

If Boeing prooves the viability of an eliptical cross-section with the 797 the next VLA could well be 11-across aircraft, giving it structural advantage. The interesting thign would be what range would be good for it? Will there be a space in 20 years or so for a VLA aimed at 5k miles, being lighter than the 777?

Miquel787 wrote:

Matt6461 wrote:

A350-2000 with Ultrafan engines will absolutely destroy the 777-9 and give Airbus the monopoly on the VLA market (insofar as such market makes any conceptual sense - it doesn't). Except this time the Airbus monopoly will be profitable, unlike with A380.

In your dreams....like the A380 destroyed the 747...You.re a funny guy..Is this the outcome of playing to much "destroying" games?Do you think Boeing is doing nothing if Airbus is putting the Ultrafan on their 350?

No personally i think this is like Lockheed and Douglas with the DC10 Vs L1011, and that basically destroyed both companies because there was only a market for one. Now, it is the same with 747/A380, except both companies are large enough to sustain a loss

Revelation wrote:

The 77X is excellent but the FUBAR known as 787 derailed both Y1 (NSA) and Y3 so we have MAX instead of Y1 and 777neo+nwo instead of Y3.

787 may be FUBAR 1.0, but it has sales potential, so one cannot complain.
That makes 777X FUBAR 2.0 which is barely selling.

BCA's own financial resources, WA state subsidies, EXIM benefits wasted on 777X should have been used to NSA, NMA or MAX.

I will even say, without this VLA obsession, both 797 and A321XLR would be in service by now.

Innovation in long-range narrowbodies has been set back by at least a decade. ME3, A & B all are responsible for it.

Miquel787 wrote:

like the A380 destroyed the 747...

It did. The last EVER passenger delivery of a 747 was almost two years ago. With 36 sold to airlines the A380 outsold the 747-8i 7 to 1.

Can’t have a monopoly when there’s no market. The 747-8i has sold poorly and the A380 is now on its death bed. There is no market for the VLA.