Aviation737
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:16 am

What are the chances of the 787 being ordered?
Last edited by Aviation737 on Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Kindanew
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:16 am

n7371f wrote:
Congratulations for shutting down an aircraft line that will end up losing many more billions? Ok.

Kindanew wrote:
Congratulations to Airbus!


How is shutting down an unprofitable line a bad thing?

The development money is already spent and paid off.

The cost of shutting down the line will be about $500 million.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:24 am

Kindanew wrote:
The cost of shutting down the line will be about $500 million.


They're shutting it down? I thought the plan was to use the A380 space at TLS for another, more automated, A321 line?
First to fly the 787-9
 
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Kindanew
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:27 am

zkojq wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
The cost of shutting down the line will be about $500 million.


They're shutting it down? I thought the plan was to use the A380 space at TLS for another, more automated, A321 line?


The production line is more than just the assembly building.
 
ewt340
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:28 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
I didn't expect that. The A330-900 is smaller than the 787-10 although it does have marginally more range. The A350-900 is roughly the 787-10's size and with a very large amount of range. I don't see these jets arriving at EK until they're at the new airport, given how slot-restricted DXB is. Maybe some will go to FlyDubai?

EK must have got a great deal on the A330-900s, because the 787-10 seemed much better for the EK business model.


EK is not the only airlines that got great deal on A330-900neo. All airlines did since it's a cheap update on the old A330.

One of the problem with B787-10 is the fact that it can't do heavy duties operation like A350-900. But it's too big for smaller secondary cities around Middle East, Eastern Europe or African cities. A330-900neo carry 30-40 less passengers compared to B787-10. This give them a great flexibility between the smaller market.
Commonality between A330-900neo and A350-900 are great, so this isn't much of a problem for EK to operate on daily basis.

If they went with B787-10, B777X and A380. They would ended up with 2 aircraft family with Massive capacity and tons of range. And then large aircraft with little range. So Thin-long routes and frequencies would suffer greatly.


EK has said they might take some 787-9s so it wasn’t just the -10 that was on the table.


Presumably if they go with it. They would ended up with A330neo, A350neo, A380, B787, B777 + X.

Now would it makes more sense to go with A330neo, A350, A380, B777 + X. And then in 2030, starting to phased out A380 and older B777. So they would ended up with A330neo, A350 and B777X?
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:30 am

Aviation737 wrote:
What are the chances of the 787 being ordered?

While it looks less likely now, I still wouldn't write it off until an official announcement is made.

There are a few options now:
- Keep the 787-10 order as is (less likely).
- Convert the 787-10 to 787-8 or - 9.
- Let the MOU lapse but order more 777X (most likely)
- And there is the Boeing 797, which is a great unknown for all airlines but that is probably a segment that is lacking at the DXB airlines. There has always been a gap since the A330-200 days between the smallest EK planes and the FZ 737s. That may change the equation.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:42 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Aviation737 wrote:
What are the chances of the 787 being ordered?

While it looks less likely now, I still wouldn't write it off until an official announcement is made.

There are a few options now:
- Keep the 787-10 order as is (less likely).
- Convert the 787-10 to 787-8 or - 9.
- Let the MOU lapse but order more 777X (most likely)


I don't understand why an airline would make additional orders just to keep an OEM happy. The A330-900s + A350-900s will take over some flying which would otherwise have been done by 777-9x. So the order of those aircraft has freed up some 777Xs which can be used to take over some A380 flying.
First to fly the 787-9
 
olle
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:43 am

2024 for A350 is very close to 2025 with upgraded engines.

Is this the start for A350-2000 with new engines?
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:49 am

zkojq wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Aviation737 wrote:
What are the chances of the 787 being ordered?

While it looks less likely now, I still wouldn't write it off until an official announcement is made.

There are a few options now:
- Keep the 787-10 order as is (less likely).
- Convert the 787-10 to 787-8 or - 9.
- Let the MOU lapse but order more 777X (most likely)


I don't understand why an airline would make additional orders just to keep an OEM happy. The A330-900s + A350-900s will take over some flying which would otherwise have been done by 777-9x. So the order of those aircraft has freed up some 777Xs which can be used to take over some A380 flying.

If they didn't keep the OEMs happy, would you have seen today's Airbus announcement? That is certainly the epitome of keeping a manufacturer happy.

There is also a good reason why airlines would want to keep the OEMs happy. Say for example Airline E decides to ignore Manufacturer B, Manufacturer B will most likely take the suggestions of all other airlines in the focus group for a new airliner/variant and spec the plane to those airlines requirements. This may work against Airline E if those other airlines wanted a plane to work against Airline E.
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:51 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
I didn't expect that. The A330-900 is smaller than the 787-10 although it does have marginally more range.


Wasn't it only a bit more range with the 242t MTOW, evolved into quite some more range with 251t?

TTailedTiger wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
phoenix123 wrote:
Good move. Now I want to hear some news about the new narrow body and A350-2000.

Yeah right. Come on Airbus, what have you done for me lately? Most of our friends in Europe aren't even awake yet. Leave them the chance to at least dance a few jigs before the the new wave of speculative threads start.


I'd say they've already danced a jig because EK most assuredly got the 330neo for a song and dance. We shall see if they ever actually take them.


Given Airbus experience with Emirates cancelling even large orders, I'd assume those would be expansive cancellations if they don't take them.

Best regards
Thomas
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Slug71
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:55 am

olle wrote:
2024 for A350 is very close to 2025 with upgraded engines.

Is this the start for A350-2000 with new engines?


Very possible. Airbus will also have new Beluga XLs that can fit a fuselage with a diameter roughly 1m larger than the current Beluga.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:59 am

olle wrote:
2024 for A350 is very close to 2025 with upgraded engines.

Is this the start for A350-2000 with new engines?


I fully expect EK to be one of the first airlines to get 350Ultras. RR saved themselves a ton of development time, effort and money by nixing the variable pitch fan and making it a straight 2 spool GTF.
What the...?
 
juliuswong
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:25 am

I sure hope those 40 A330neo are firm order.......now where are those A339neo naysayers??
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scbriml
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:50 am

As a fan of the A380 from a passenger and an aviation engineering perspective, it's sad (but not surprising) to hear that production is coming to an end.

Congratulations to Airbus and Emirates for making lemonade from the situation. IMHO, the A330neo and A350 combo give EK more flexibility that just having the 787-10 below the 777 fleet.

But, wow just wow, is there ever some bitterness in this thread? :shock:


LY777 wrote:
So they are ordering the oldish A330Neo...
A real downgrade compared to the 787-10...


The 'oldish' A330neo that's only just entered service? Along with the 'oldish' 777X yet to do so?

EK clearly not considering it a 'downgrade'.

Finn350 wrote:
This is also end of the EK two frame (777 and A380) long term fleet strategy


That strategy ended some time ago when they placed the MOU for 787s.

IslandRob wrote:
For now, at least. As both Airbus and Boeing have learned all too well, EK can be fickle.


There's always hope, eh? When you spend tens of $Billions, you can be as 'fickle' as you want.

MrHMSH wrote:
Some new information from EK's own press release:

- Deliveries of the A330neo will start in 2021, A350 from 2024.
- The A330neo will be used for regional destinations.
- The A350s will be used to 'supplement Emirates’ long-haul operations, providing the carrier with added flexibility in terms of capacity deployment on 8 to 12 hour missions from its Dubai hub.'


That should put to rest any fears (hopes?) that EK won't take the A330neo. Will be nice to see A330s climbing out of Dubai again.

IslandRob wrote:
Best I can figure, EK must have been more desperate to cancel the A380 order than Airbus, or, in any event, Airbus had the upper hand in the negotiations. Otherwise, it's hard to understand why EK would choose the A330Neo over the 78X. Airbus is becoming quite accomplished at arm twisting airlines into taking aircraft they don't really want. Just ask NH.


Well you have twisted to go with the bitter. :wave:

Aviation737 wrote:
What are the chances of the 787 being ordered?


Two chances - slim and none. Slim's just saddled up his horse...

Kindanew wrote:
How is shutting down an unprofitable line a bad thing?

The development money is already spent and paid off.

The cost of shutting down the line will be about $500 million.


It isn't a bad thing and Tom Enders already said “The consequences of this decision are largely embedded in our 2018 full year results”. So their taking the hit now.

jeffrey0032j wrote:
While it looks less likely now, I still wouldn't write it off until an official announcement is made.


It ain't happening now (why would EK want three different frames smaller than the 777?). :shakehead: There will be no big announcement, the MOU will just quietly lapse.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Channex757
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:57 am

olle wrote:
2024 for A350 is very close to 2025 with upgraded engines.

Is this the start for A350-2000 with new engines?

I would not be surprised if the contract contains conversion rights. On top of that EK could go with a larger order as launch operator for the A350-2000. The contracts are confidential though so anything is just guesswork for now.

The air shows should be worth watching, especially Dubai.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:09 am

juliuswong wrote:
I sure hope those 40 A330neo are firm order.......now where are those A339neo naysayers??

The only reason why they were ordered is to avoid the huge penalties with cancelling the A380.
 
george77300
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:16 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
I sure hope those 40 A330neo are firm order.......now where are those A339neo naysayers??

The only reason why they were ordered is to avoid the huge penalties with cancelling the A380.


Exactly. And to cover Rolls-Royce payments as well as Airbus. Had that not been the case, there is no way the A330neos would have been ordered.

EDIT: You never know either. EK ordered the A350 before and cancelled. I don't think that that will happen again, but I wouldn't be surprised (however unlikely) for the A330neos to not be delivered.
Last edited by george77300 on Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
JeremyXWB
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:16 am

And to think they've just gotten rid of their A330s just about 3 years ago...
 
Miquel787
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:20 am

Did EK cancel the 787- 10? Is it official or still a rumour? I bet Boeing is not happy with this situation.They changed the Airbus order but EK is very quiet about the Boeing Mou...This is surprising..
 
george77300
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:26 am

Miquel787 wrote:
Did EK cancel the 787- 10? Is it official or still a rumour? I bet Boeing is not happy with this situation.They changed the Airbus order but EK is very quiet about the Boeing Mou...This is surprising..


It was never an order. Never on the books. Simply an MOU. I think it will lapse with no firming of the order as the A330neo, if they ever take them, will do the shorter range & lower capacity routes instead. It was either that or Emirates losing lots of money to Airbus and Rolls-Royce as penalties for A380 cancellations, if they went ahead with the 787-10. Although you never know with the ME3, all could change and they could fly both the 787/330 or even cancel the A330neo down the road. It wouldn't be the first time... :stirthepot: :white:
 
Miquel787
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:47 am

george77300 wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
Did EK cancel the 787- 10? Is it official or still a rumour? I bet Boeing is not happy with this situation.They changed the Airbus order but EK is very quiet about the Boeing Mou...This is surprising..


It was never an order. Never on the books. Simply an MOU. I think it will lapse with no firming of the order as the A330neo, if they ever take them, will do the shorter range & lower capacity routes instead. It was either that or Emirates losing lots of money to Airbus and Rolls-Royce as penalties for A380 cancellations, if they went ahead with the 787-10. Although you never know with the ME3, all could change and they could fly both the 787/330 or even cancel the A330neo down the road. It wouldn't be the first time... :stirthepot: :white:

You are absolutely right here..EK is like the weatherforecast...It changes from day to day..What annoys me that there is no word about the 787 MOU..But i.m not EK and Clark seems to know what he is doing. But nevertheless this whole jojobehaviour will raise some questions i guess.
 
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jensobreuer
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:48 am

With A330s and A350s (maybe also ULR) ordered I could imagine EK streamlining their 777 order to 777-9 only and cancelling or converting their 35 777-8 ...
What do you think?
 
brindabella
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:49 am

Slug71 wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
Projected delivery timings for these frames would be something to watch, DXB is crowded as it is and DWC has faced many delays, I don't see the bulk of them getting delivered until well into the 2020s. Given EK's past actions, it would be a serious test of how firm these orders actually are.


There will definitely be some heavy cancellation penalties attached to this order. Even RR probably gave EK a good deal on engines in lieu of the T900 compensation.
EK would be the big loser on that go-around.


Maybe we will never know.

EK announced the cancellation at the conclusion of what must have been some torrid 3-way battles between EK, AB & RR.

I think we can be certain that RR will be supplying some VERY cheap engines ... but the fact that EK is the party to announce the actual cancellation may not mean too much, IMO.

Most likely that is just one Clause in a very complex settlement between the two parties; and if AB was on top then EK will in fact be the big loser, as you say.

However if EK came out top then the airline will get those fabulously cheap RR engines on the wings of fabulously cheap AB widebody twins!

cheers
Billy
 
george77300
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:50 am

Miquel787 wrote:
george77300 wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
Did EK cancel the 787- 10? Is it official or still a rumour? I bet Boeing is not happy with this situation.They changed the Airbus order but EK is very quiet about the Boeing Mou...This is surprising..


It was never an order. Never on the books. Simply an MOU. I think it will lapse with no firming of the order as the A330neo, if they ever take them, will do the shorter range & lower capacity routes instead. It was either that or Emirates losing lots of money to Airbus and Rolls-Royce as penalties for A380 cancellations, if they went ahead with the 787-10. Although you never know with the ME3, all could change and they could fly both the 787/330 or even cancel the A330neo down the road. It wouldn't be the first time... :stirthepot: :white:

You are absolutely right here..EK is like the weatherforecast...It changes from day to day..What annoys me that there is no word about the 787 MOU..But i.m not EK and Clark seems to know what he is doing. But nevertheless this whole jojobehaviour will raise some questions i guess.


No word from Boeing because it is an Airbus Press Release and they will have to announce numbers so no doubt announced the Emirates order to balance the cancellations. I'm sure in the future Boeing will announce what happening. Likely if Emirates order more 777X, they might inform about 787 MOU. Or as you said Emirates might cancel all 777X and order 250 787... :white: Don't believe until delivery with the ME3... :rotfl: :stirthepot:
 
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scbriml
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:56 am

george77300 wrote:
as the A330neo, if they ever take them


george77300 wrote:
but I wouldn't be surprised (however unlikely) for the A330neos to not be delivered.


Hope springs eternal, eh? :lol:
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frigatebird
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:56 am

ewt340 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

EK is not the only airlines that got great deal on A330-900neo. All airlines did since it's a cheap update on the old A330.

One of the problem with B787-10 is the fact that it can't do heavy duties operation like A350-900. But it's too big for smaller secondary cities around Middle East, Eastern Europe or African cities. A330-900neo carry 30-40 less passengers compared to B787-10. This give them a great flexibility between the smaller market.
Commonality between A330-900neo and A350-900 are great, so this isn't much of a problem for EK to operate on daily basis.

If they went with B787-10, B777X and A380. They would ended up with 2 aircraft family with Massive capacity and tons of range. And then large aircraft with little range. So Thin-long routes and frequencies would suffer greatly.


EK has said they might take some 787-9s so it wasn’t just the -10 that was on the table.


Presumably if they go with it. They would ended up with A330neo, A350neo, A380, B787, B777 + X.

Now would it makes more sense to go with A330neo, A350, A380, B777 + X. And then in 2030, starting to phased out A380 and older B777. So they would ended up with A330neo, A350 and B777X?

I think what Dave means is that EK could have decided to add 787-9s if the 787-10 would be too large for some routes. In fact, in an interview some time back Tim Clark talked about using smaller aircraft like the 787-9 to open new longhaul, thin routes. And I agree that EK therefore had more options than taking A330neo's. As for commonality, IMO the A330neo - A350 commonality, I think it is comparible with 777 - 787 commonality.

And if you're reasoning is correct that EK found the 787-10 too large (and I'm certainly not saying you're wrong), this must be a massive wake up call for EK. It used to be bigger is better for them. But now... What will happen from next year on will be 777X replacing A380s, and A330neo's replacing 77W. While I won't call it downgrading, it certainly is downgauging.

From a pure personal standpoint, I'm disappointed. To me, it's clear the initiative to cancel the A380s must have come from EK, exchanging 25 A380 to 40x A339 and 30x A359 most certainly is a great deal for Airbus. But IMHO I think Airbus would have settled for just 30x profit making A350-1000 in exchange for 25x loss making A380. EK could have kept the 40x 787-10 (and maybe have more flexibility with the 150x 777X order in exchange. I don't think Boeing will be too flexible after losing the important 40x 787-10 MoU).

But I guess a fleet of 787-10, A35K, 777X and A380 was considered too much aircraft.

zkojq wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Aviation737 wrote:
What are the chances of the 787 being ordered?

While it looks less likely now, I still wouldn't write it off until an official announcement is made.

There are a few options now:
- Keep the 787-10 order as is (less likely).
- Convert the 787-10 to 787-8 or - 9.
- Let the MOU lapse but order more 777X (most likely)


I don't understand why an airline would make additional orders just to keep an OEM happy. The A330-900s + A350-900s will take over some flying which would otherwise have been done by 777-9x. So the order of those aircraft has freed up some 777Xs which can be used to take over some A380 flying.

I don't think EK will order additional 777-9 right now. They don't have to. They can always ask Boeing to increase the yearly delivery rate of 777X already ordered. If Boeing has to increase the production rate and deliver 150 777X in 8 years instead of 12, they'll be very happy to do so. And EK can always exercise options later.

olle wrote:
2024 for A350 is very close to 2025 with upgraded engines.

Is this the start for A350-2000 with new engines?


Possibly, although if an A350-2000 is launched together with an A350neo program, I expect an A350-900neo first, a -1000neo one year later and a -2000 variant another year later. So in 2027 at the earliest.

scbriml wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
While it looks less likely now, I still wouldn't write it off until an official announcement is made.


It ain't happening now (why would EK want three different frames smaller than the 777?). :shakehead: There will be no big announcement, the MOU will just quietly lapse.


I believe so too, the 787-10 MoU will go the same way as the EK A330-300 MoU years back.
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smartplane
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:00 am

brindabella wrote:
EK announced the cancellation at the conclusion of what must have been some torrid 3-way battles between EK, AB & RR.

A380 leasors will also have been involved. A soft landing for them, will see a 2-3 year extension on all but the earliest deliveries, in return for an EOL discount.

How many Airbus owned (directly and indirectly) aircraft can Tarbes store?

Changes (or absence of changes) in how the remaining aircraft are funded, may provide an insight into how much money Airbus has had to commit to get EK to cancel.
Last edited by smartplane on Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
george77300
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:03 am

scbriml wrote:
george77300 wrote:
as the A330neo, if they ever take them


george77300 wrote:
but I wouldn't be surprised (however unlikely) for the A330neos to not be delivered.


Hope springs eternal, eh? :lol:


Not hoping. I never said that. There is a certainly a chance, however, they won't take them. Just not the correct frame for them. It certainly has a small niche, the A330neo (the -900), but not the best for Emirates. This is an order to solve a spat between AB vs EK vs RR over A380 cancellation penalties. Not an order for the best aircraft for them. Just because you like Airbus so much (clear from your posts) does not mean it's the best aircraft for all airlines. As for the A350s I can understand that order more and makes a lot more sense for EK this time around, not so much for the A339.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:08 am

jensobreuer wrote:
With A330s and A350s (maybe also ULR) ordered I could imagine EK streamlining their 777 order to 777-9 only and cancelling or converting their 35 777-8 ...
What do you think?

I doubt the 777-8 is in danger with the A359 ordered now. Remember the so called ULR is just a 280t A359 (which is a very capable airplane) with extra fuel capacity. But it trades fuel for payload. Great for SQ which flies their ULH routes without economy class, less suitable for QF's Project Sunrise for example. The 319t A350-1000 would be a different story in this context, but EK have stated they intend to use the A350 on 8-12 hour routes (which would'nt even require the 280t MTOW version). So no threat to the 777-8 order :shakehead:
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flipdewaf
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:26 am

brindabella wrote:
I think we can be certain that RR will be supplying some VERY cheap engines ... but the fact that EK is the party to announce the actual cancellation may not mean too much, IMO.
I dont understand why this is certain, it was my understanding that EK put in the additional order for 20+16 that was conditional on RR providing a PiP for the T900. RR didn't think it was worth it for the price EK were looking for so the order (and the A380 line) has fallen through. If I ask a builder to do a job for me and he doesn't think its worth the money to do it, that doesn't mean I'll get a deal on the next job.

what am I missing?

Fred
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sabby
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:26 am

After the very successful introduction of the newer gen twins with great fuel economy and range, a lot of the airlines have started/resumed long hauls that overfly the ME. This will only grow, even more after the next generation engines. I think EK's only 777 and A380 fleet wouldn't work for many routes in future. Even now, there are a lot of routes that doesn't require a large aircraft as 77W but that's the smallest frame they have. They can use 2xA339 for one A380 on high O&D demand routes as well as new routes. The A350 can take the long 77W routes with less demand which will free them up for more growth routes. I wouldn't be surprised if EK do take deliveries of 787-10s albeit part of a different order 10 years later with newer engines.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:29 am

tommy1808 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
I didn't expect that. The A330-900 is smaller than the 787-10 although it does have marginally more range.


Wasn't it only a bit more range with the 242t MTOW, evolved into quite some more range with 251t?


Yeah, you're right. Although honestly I don't know of any airlines that would need the higher weight variant that haven't already ordered 787-9 and aren't atrocious financial basket-cases.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:30 am

george77300 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
george77300 wrote:
as the A330neo, if they ever take them


george77300 wrote:
but I wouldn't be surprised (however unlikely) for the A330neos to not be delivered.


Hope springs eternal, eh? :lol:


Not hoping. I never said that. There is a certainly a chance, however, they won't take them. Just not the correct frame for them. It certainly has a small niche, the A330neo (the -900), but not the best for Emirates. This is an order to solve a spat between AB vs EK vs RR over A380 cancellation penalties. Not an order for the best aircraft for them. Just because you like Airbus so much (clear from your posts) does not mean it's the best aircraft for all airlines. As for the A350s I can understand that order more and makes a lot more sense for EK this time around, not so much for the A339.


EK will start taking deliveries of the A339 in 2021. If there's any chance they don't intend to take them then they've given themselves a remarkably small timespan in which to change their minds.

I'd be interested to know on what authority the A339 is or isn't the best aircraft for them.
 
george77300
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:36 am

MrHMSH wrote:
george77300 wrote:
scbriml wrote:



Hope springs eternal, eh? :lol:


Not hoping. I never said that. There is a certainly a chance, however, they won't take them. Just not the correct frame for them. It certainly has a small niche, the A330neo (the -900), but not the best for Emirates. This is an order to solve a spat between AB vs EK vs RR over A380 cancellation penalties. Not an order for the best aircraft for them. Just because you like Airbus so much (clear from your posts) does not mean it's the best aircraft for all airlines. As for the A350s I can understand that order more and makes a lot more sense for EK this time around, not so much for the A339.


EK will start taking deliveries of the A339 in 2021. If there's any chance they don't intend to take them then they've given themselves a remarkably small timespan in which to change their minds.

I'd be interested to know on what authority the A339 is or isn't the best aircraft for them.


Oh I’m sure it definitely more likely they’ll take them but has happened before with all of the ME3. Don’t believe it until delivery. QR had a load of A320neo painted and some cabin fitted and rejected them before delivery. Also EK ordered 70 A350 and many options in 2007 for delivery in 2014. These were cancelled that year in 2014. Never say never with the ME3. They change more than the weather forecast but I do agree they are very likely to take the A339 and A359 this time around.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:41 am

george77300 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
george77300 wrote:

Not hoping. I never said that. There is a certainly a chance, however, they won't take them. Just not the correct frame for them. It certainly has a small niche, the A330neo (the -900), but not the best for Emirates. This is an order to solve a spat between AB vs EK vs RR over A380 cancellation penalties. Not an order for the best aircraft for them. Just because you like Airbus so much (clear from your posts) does not mean it's the best aircraft for all airlines. As for the A350s I can understand that order more and makes a lot more sense for EK this time around, not so much for the A339.


EK will start taking deliveries of the A339 in 2021. If there's any chance they don't intend to take them then they've given themselves a remarkably small timespan in which to change their minds.

I'd be interested to know on what authority the A339 is or isn't the best aircraft for them.


Oh I’m sure it definitely more likely they’ll take them but has happened before with all of the ME3. Don’t believe it until delivery. QR had a load of A320neo painted and some cabin fitted and rejected them before delivery. Also EK ordered 70 A350 and many options in 2007 for delivery in 2014. These were cancelled that year in 2014. Never say never with the ME3. They change more than the weather forecast but I do agree they are very likely to take the A339 and A359 this time around.


They change their minds, but the A350 cancellation was balanced by an order for A380s, which EK has now mostly taken. The reason they've ordered A330neos and A359s is as compensation for the A380 cancellation, and as such they do have an obligation to take these planes (unless they want to pay the penalties which they clearly don't).

Also: QR's A320neo situation is relatively unique. I don't think we'll see anything like that with EK.
 
Arion640
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:54 am

MrHMSH wrote:
george77300 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

EK will start taking deliveries of the A339 in 2021. If there's any chance they don't intend to take them then they've given themselves a remarkably small timespan in which to change their minds.

I'd be interested to know on what authority the A339 is or isn't the best aircraft for them.


Oh I’m sure it definitely more likely they’ll take them but has happened before with all of the ME3. Don’t believe it until delivery. QR had a load of A320neo painted and some cabin fitted and rejected them before delivery. Also EK ordered 70 A350 and many options in 2007 for delivery in 2014. These were cancelled that year in 2014. Never say never with the ME3. They change more than the weather forecast but I do agree they are very likely to take the A339 and A359 this time around.


They change their minds, but the A350 cancellation was balanced by an order for A380s, which EK has now mostly taken. The reason they've ordered A330neos and A359s is as compensation for the A380 cancellation, and as such they do have an obligation to take these planes (unless they want to pay the penalties which they clearly don't).

Also: QR's A320neo situation is relatively unique. I don't think we'll see anything like that with EK.


I think an order has more chance of sticking with EK compared to QR IMHO.
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JustSomeDood
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:55 am

MrHMSH wrote:
george77300 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

EK will start taking deliveries of the A339 in 2021. If there's any chance they don't intend to take them then they've given themselves a remarkably small timespan in which to change their minds.

I'd be interested to know on what authority the A339 is or isn't the best aircraft for them.


Oh I’m sure it definitely more likely they’ll take them but has happened before with all of the ME3. Don’t believe it until delivery. QR had a load of A320neo painted and some cabin fitted and rejected them before delivery. Also EK ordered 70 A350 and many options in 2007 for delivery in 2014. These were cancelled that year in 2014. Never say never with the ME3. They change more than the weather forecast but I do agree they are very likely to take the A339 and A359 this time around.


They change their minds, but the A350 cancellation was balanced by an order for A380s, which EK has now mostly taken. The reason they've ordered A330neos and A359s is as compensation for the A380 cancellation, and as such they do have an obligation to take these planes (unless they want to pay the penalties which they clearly don't).


Or they could restructure the orders again to put the deposits on other Airbus models down the line, it certainly would not be a surprise if the order composition is changed to play around with quantities and types as fit for EK's needs. Until EK-tailed planes start coming out there really aren't guarantees.
 
jupiter2
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:58 am

MrHMSH wrote:
george77300 wrote:
scbriml wrote:



Hope springs eternal, eh? :lol:


Not hoping. I never said that. There is a certainly a chance, however, they won't take them. Just not the correct frame for them. It certainly has a small niche, the A330neo (the -900), but not the best for Emirates. This is an order to solve a spat between AB vs EK vs RR over A380 cancellation penalties. Not an order for the best aircraft for them. Just because you like Airbus so much (clear from your posts) does not mean it's the best aircraft for all airlines. As for the A350s I can understand that order more and makes a lot more sense for EK this time around, not so much for the A339.


EK will start taking deliveries of the A339 in 2021. If there's any chance they don't intend to take them then they've given themselves a remarkably small timespan in which to change their minds.

I'd be interested to know on what authority the A339 is or isn't the best aircraft for them.


Well the 339 and the 359 were both beaten by the 787-10, when EK announced the MOU for the 787s.

EK is doing what is necessary to stave off penalty payments, while still getting more than capable aircraft from Airbus and RR. As a result of possible stiff penalties, the 339 and 350 both become the best aircraft for EK.

I would have thought all 359s would've been a better long term option, but delivery slots and I would imagine a pretty good price for 339s would've helped the 339 case. I hope these Rollers don't start playing up in the sand though :scratchchin:
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:00 am

SQ789 wrote:
I guess EVZ will be the last A380.

EVV. currently at EVH and so 14 more.
 
MEA-707
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:05 am

SQ789 wrote:
I guess EVZ will be the last A380.

Presuming they will not skip letters like the Q, if I count 14 more deliveries and a 123 total, I think A6-EVS (speculated MSN: 272) will be the final A380.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
planecane
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:14 am

I would imagine Boeing isn't all that upset if instead of 787-10s they sell significantly more 777-9s. The former has a much larger potential customer base.
 
shankly
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:40 am

So it turns out even EK don't need a big hammer (77W) every time to crack a nut (new or seasonal route)

Did anyone see the A330NEO coming? Has to be one of the best kept order secrets in recent years....not even a whisper

I'm also keen to see how EK market themselves over the next 5-10 years as the fleet balances out. The A380 has been such a huge part of defining who EK are since its arrival in numbers. Regional widebodies just aren't as sexy or alluring to the flying public, regardless of their economic fit.

Emirates A330NEO....who would have thought it!
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BaconButty
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:48 am

Finn350 wrote:
and would have gotten 787 if A380 were not cancelled.


Few people saying this, but surely the reluctance to firm the 787 order from 2017 tells you something was up?
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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par13del
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:55 am

BaconButty wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
and would have gotten 787 if A380 were not cancelled.


Few people saying this, but surely the reluctance to firm the 787 order from 2017 tells you something was up?

According to some of those same few and others, EK cannot survive without the A380, so unless Airbus decides to make a new frame by 2025, do we speculate on the demise of EK? Warped logic coming home to roots is what it is....
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:09 pm

jupiter2 wrote:
Well the 339 and the 359 were both beaten by the 787-10, when EK announced the MOU for the 787s.


Today's A359 is a better plane than yesterday's and the A339 is apparently beating spec - things change.
 
brindabella
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:33 pm

smartplane wrote:
brindabella wrote:
EK announced the cancellation at the conclusion of what must have been some torrid 3-way battles between EK, AB & RR.

A380 leasors will also have been involved. A soft landing for them, will see a 2-3 year extension on all but the earliest deliveries, in return for an EOL discount.

How many Airbus owned (directly and indirectly) aircraft can Tarbes store?


Whew! A bit for a non-financial lad to chew-on in those paras ...




smartplane wrote:
Changes (or absence of changes) in how the remaining aircraft are funded, may provide an insight into how much money Airbus has had to commit to get EK to cancel.


I trust we can rely on you to keep us posted?

cheers
Billy
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:37 pm

c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?


To me, that would be their fleet primarily to African destinations and secondary European destinations, along with possibly fifth-freedom to NYC (like ATH-EWR and MXP-JFK). Because of bilateral restrictions, I still see the A380 going to China and India. It's also possible that some destinations could be handed off to FZ.

As for the owned fleet of 777s, I could see it being transferred over time to DAE Capital as a way to take it off their hands for leasing elsewhere.
 
brindabella
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:45 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
brindabella wrote:
I think we can be certain that RR will be supplying some VERY cheap engines ... but the fact that EK is the party to announce the actual cancellation may not mean too much, IMO.
I dont understand why this is certain, it was my understanding that EK put in the additional order for 20+16 that was conditional on RR providing a PiP for the T900. RR didn't think it was worth it for the price EK were looking for so the order (and the A380 line) has fallen through. If I ask a builder to do a job for me and he doesn't think its worth the money to do it, that doesn't mean I'll get a deal on the next job.

what am I missing?

Fred


You are looking-forward; the damage with the performance shortfall of the Trents had already been done.

Over several years there have been many posts in threads here about the poor performance of the engine in EK service culminating in the failed PiP - then RR stating unequivocally that RR will not be bringing the engine to the contracted standard.

Ever. :ashamed:

Big bucks.

Cheers
Billy
 
musman9853
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:49 pm

shankly wrote:
So it turns out even EK don't need a big hammer (77W) every time to crack a nut (new or seasonal route)

Did anyone see the A330NEO coming? Has to be one of the best kept order secrets in recent years....not even a whisper

I'm also keen to see how EK market themselves over the next 5-10 years as the fleet balances out. The A380 has been such a huge part of defining who EK are since its arrival in numbers. Regional widebodies just aren't as sexy or alluring to the flying public, regardless of their economic fit.

Emirates A330NEO....who would have thought it!


Jon ostrower reported this last week
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OA940
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:49 pm

I'd love to see an EK 787-10, but the 359 is superior in hot and high conditions. Plus it's more comfortable and offers more range, so they could switch routes like ATH-EWR during off season to it. A330neo is a weird choice, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go relatively early, even though I wish they can make it work.

Either way, even though it comes at the expense of the whale, I feel like it helps out both parties in the end. Plus it's a nice boost to the A330neo and A350 programs, even if it was a bit forced. Congratulations to both parties.
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