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panamair
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:27 am

LAXintl wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]

The slots cannot be used for 3rd nation markets - solely for US-Japan flights.


Given that, DL will likely apply for at least 5-6 slots - to move ATL/DTW/SEA/PDX/HNL over, and possibly go for a sixth - re-institute JFK. And that will be the end of NRT for DL...
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:34 am

yonikasz wrote:
Do you know where to get those regulatory documents on the US governments website? I don’t wanna pay for something that should be free.


http://www.regulations.gov

Type in "Order 2019-2-5" in the search field.
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jbs2886
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:56 am

yonikasz wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
Also, here's a link to the full instituting order for those who want to read:

https://airlineinfo.com/ostpdf103/476.pdf


Do you know where to get those regulatory documents on the US governments website? I don’t wanna pay for something that should be free.


www.regulations.gov
 
gokmengs
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:08 am

Wonder if there is a chance of DL asking JFK-HND and succeeding in getting the authority, its a gaping hole in their network IMO
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orcajet
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:10 am

LAXintl wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
I'd say 4 or 5 slots for Delta is most likely, which means ATL/DTW/SEA plus one of PDX/HNL/SIN/MNL would also move.

PWMRamper wrote:
If they got a 5th, it'd be interesting what they decided to do with it. JFK seems like a possible re-entry, but perhaps they'd try and get a slot for SIN/MNL (probably SIN, but then again, I have to wonder how much money they're making on the route with the huge influx of nonstop US-SIN flights).

HeeseokKoo wrote:
With this many slots, DL will push for HND-SIN 5th freedom. I can hardly imagine that all 12 will be used for the mainland US, and DL will have a logic that the 5th freedom would let it operate more cities to the mainland US and increase competition. If some of the new slots will go HNL or even GUM, I would say DL's SIN will be more beneficial for most Americans. But I don't know whether there's a restriction regarding 5th freedom or not out of HND.
.


The slots cannot be used for 3rd nation markets - solely for US-Japan flights.


Reading through the proceeding I don’t see a reference to this restriction. Is that in another document? Several places where it would be logical to write US-Japan flights or something similar the document instead references “additional daytime slot pairs for U.S.-carrier operations at Haneda”, further this section seems to invite 5th freedom flights, “If a carrier is relying upon connecting traffic, it should provide proposed nonstop-to-nonstop connecting schedules“. Am I missing something here? Thanks
 
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janders
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:24 am

When HND opened up, flights were specifically allocated on per nation basis.

For example SQ desired to ops it's LAX service via HND instead of NRT, but terms only allowed SQ to utilize it's awarded slots for SIN turn around services.

When DOT speaks about connections they refer to the hundreds of city pairs that potentially connect at hubs on either side that carriers cite to make their proposals stronger and more appealing.
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a19901213
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:46 am

gokmengs wrote:
Wonder if there is a chance of DL asking JFK-HND and succeeding in getting the authority, its a gaping hole in their network IMO


Since there’s no US carrier flying this route I think there’s very high chance this may happen if they have been allocated enough slot pairs, just my 2cents.
 
DeSpringbokke
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:09 am

I'm of the agreement Delta probably gets 5, AA/UA get three, and HAL gets the final slot. I'm very surprised they are giving out twelve. Reward for opening up the previously restricted airspace around Yokota Air Base? So much for Delta eventually wanting to move MSP-HND to SEA. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this will be the end of NRT flying for Delta. ATL/SEA/DTW should be in line to receive HND flights. As for the two other potential flights to HND? Delta is probably going to give a shot at returning to NYC-TYO flying and apply for JFK-HND. Stated reason for exiting JFK-NRT was they could not complete on yields with ANA/JAL on their new JFK-HND flights. What about the last slot they will more likely than not receive? PDX-HND? HNL-HND? Its probably going to be one of those. I'd wager a slight lean on PDX-HND as Delta is fully committed, despite the NRT drawdown, on flying the biggest International O&D route ex-PDX. Keep in mind Korean also flies HNL-NRT. Delta is dropping HNL-FUK in May. I still believe its only a matter of time before HNL-Japan goes away entirely, especially as Delta begins to really draw down the 767 fleet in the coming years. Due to ANA's impending A380s, its just a matter of time before someone is squeezed out of the HNL-TYO market. (Yes, I am well aware of the size of HNL-TYO but those yields are going nowhere but south with A380s.) As for what happens to Delta's final two interport routes, NRT-SIN/MNL, also, with the draw down of the 767 fleet, they'll be taken up by Korean at ICN. As per what Delta will fly on these plethora of routes? Assuming my prediction is correct, 777/A350s for DTW/ATL/JFK, A330-900neos for SEA/PDX-HND.

I am actually interested more by what AA will apply for than UA. Theoretically, AA could also exit NRT with their own metal if they receive three slots. If they were to be awarded two DFW-HND flights, they could upgauge them from 772s to 77Ws, and receive another LAX-HND slot and also use the 77W instead of the 789. (DFW-GRU, MIA-EZE lose the 77W for good in the process and DFW-LHR year round is one, possibly two 77Ws.) Yeah I get it, a lot of premium seats but I don't see how AA applies for ORD-HND and receives it and is able to fly it profitably. ORD-NRT is on death's door step and if AA is not awarded a ORD-HND flight, AA is off ORD-TYO for good. Of course all of this is predicated on AA not adding any HND flying from LUS hubs PHX/PHL/CLT or retrying JFK-HND. With AA's rightsizing JFK, its hard to see how they would want to return at this point. Complicating the application is JAL already flies JFK-HND. CLT/PHL/PHX all sound interesting and all three would probably work with either 788 or 789s, however, I don't see how AA does this now as with more and more Dreamliners, its only now with the final retirement of the 767s will they Dreamliner make its way to PHL.

While UA has gotten the rotten end of the HND slot allocations in the past, they'll have good choices to make. IAH-HND is definitely one. I still don't think ORD-HND is a winner as ANA already flies it. My guess is they'll receive EWR-HND and most likely IAD-HND. IAD-HND should be a slam dunk. EWR does not have a HND flight so its pretty easy to see how it'll be awarded. Equipment? EWR-HND is a 77W, IAD/IAH-HND are both GE powered 772s.

And we come to HAL. HAL has been the biggest beneficiary of HND flying. They fly HNL-HND eleven times a week and KOA-HND thrice weekly. Four of the HNL-HND weekly slots are the nighttime slots and all three of the KOA-HND slots. Due to geography, the nighttime slots don't effect HAL one bit unlike DL/AA previously. My guess is HAL will figure out a way to make HNL-HND double daily and go daily on KOA-HND. Its possible HAL will end up cancelling HNL-NRT as a result as the only reason why they are flying it is the lack of HND slots.

Anyway, I'd like to hear what others think. I'm a huge Delta fan, but please threads like these get monopolised on DL. More discussion about AA as they could have the most interesting application if they were to include LUS hubs?
 
a/c dxer
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:14 am

DeSpringbokke wrote:
I'm of the agreement Delta probably gets 5, AA/UA get three, and HAL gets the final slot. I'm very surprised they are giving out twelve. Reward for opening up the previously restricted airspace around Yokota Air Base? So much for Delta eventually wanting to move MSP-HND to SEA. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this will be the end of NRT flying for Delta. ATL/SEA/DTW should be in line to receive HND flights. As for the two other potential flights to HND? Delta is probably going to give a shot at returning to NYC-TYO flying and apply for JFK-HND. Stated reason for exiting JFK-NRT was they could not complete on yields with ANA/JAL on their new JFK-HND flights. What about the last slot they will more likely than not receive? PDX-HND? HNL-HND? Its probably going to be one of those. I'd wager a slight lean on PDX-HND as Delta is fully committed, despite the NRT drawdown, on flying the biggest International O&D route ex-PDX. Keep in mind Korean also flies HNL-NRT. Delta is dropping HNL-FUK in May. I still believe its only a matter of time before HNL-Japan goes away entirely, especially as Delta begins to really draw down the 767 fleet in the coming years. Due to ANA's impending A380s, its just a matter of time before someone is squeezed out of the HNL-TYO market. (Yes, I am well aware of the size of HNL-TYO but those yields are going nowhere but south with A380s.) As for what happens to Delta's final two interport routes, NRT-SIN/MNL, also, with the draw down of the 767 fleet, they'll be taken up by Korean at ICN. As per what Delta will fly on these plethora of routes? Assuming my prediction is correct, 777/A350s for DTW/ATL/JFK, A330-900neos for SEA/PDX-HND.

I am actually interested more by what AA will apply for than UA. Theoretically, AA could also exit NRT with their own metal if they receive three slots. If they were to be awarded two DFW-HND flights, they could upgauge them from 772s to 77Ws, and receive another LAX-HND slot and also use the 77W instead of the 789. (DFW-GRU, MIA-EZE lose the 77W for good in the process and DFW-LHR year round is one, possibly two 77Ws.) Yeah I get it, a lot of premium seats but I don't see how AA applies for ORD-HND and receives it and is able to fly it profitably. ORD-NRT is on death's door step and if AA is not awarded a ORD-HND flight, AA is off ORD-TYO for good. Of course all of this is predicated on AA not adding any HND flying from LUS hubs PHX/PHL/CLT or retrying JFK-HND. With AA's rightsizing JFK, its hard to see how they would want to return at this point. Complicating the application is JAL already flies JFK-HND. CLT/PHL/PHX all sound interesting and all three would probably work with either 788 or 789s, however, I don't see how AA does this now as with more and more Dreamliners, its only now with the final retirement of the 767s will they Dreamliner make its way to PHL.

While UA has gotten the rotten end of the HND slot allocations in the past, they'll have good choices to make. IAH-HND is definitely one. I still don't think ORD-HND is a winner as ANA already flies it. My guess is they'll receive EWR-HND and most likely IAD-HND. IAD-HND should be a slam dunk. EWR does not have a HND flight so its pretty easy to see how it'll be awarded. Equipment? EWR-HND is a 77W, IAD/IAH-HND are both GE powered 772s.

And we come to HAL. HAL has been the biggest beneficiary of HND flying. They fly HNL-HND eleven times a week and KOA-HND thrice weekly. Four of the HNL-HND weekly slots are the nighttime slots and all three of the KOA-HND slots. Due to geography, the nighttime slots don't effect HAL one bit unlike DL/AA previously. My guess is HAL will figure out a way to make HNL-HND double daily and go daily on KOA-HND. Its possible HAL will end up cancelling HNL-NRT as a result as the only reason why they are flying it is the lack of HND slots.

Anyway, I'd like to hear what others think. I'm a huge Delta fan, but please threads like these get monopolised on DL. More discussion about AA as they could have the most interesting application if they were to include LUS hubs?



I know it hasnt been Hawaiians philosophy but could we see them codeshare with JetBlue and try for JFK and Bos to Hnd?
 
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DL747400
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:27 pm

IMO, in order to provide a level the playing field and boost competition with the JVs of UA/NH and AA/JL, prior to UA or AA receiving a single new slot, DL should be allocated sufficient slots to move their entire NRT operation to HND.
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x1234
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:40 pm

I totally agree! This is the end of Narita as we know it!
 
c933103
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:29 pm

HeeseokKoo wrote:
Previous rumors were 4 or 8. 12 is just too many. HND is adding 39000 slots in time for the Olympics, which translates into 49 and HALF of them (12 to US carriers and presumably another 12 for Japanese carriers to the US) is likely used for US-Japan.

AA-JL and UA-NH won't move all/most US-NRT flights into HND because of a strong late-afternoon hub that connects into many Asian destinations. HND-Asia network isn't as strong as ex-NRT, unless Japan allocates more slots for intra-Asia (but not many slots are left since half is gone to the US). This will weaken NRT as a hub.

With this many slots, DL will push for HND-SIN 5th freedom. I can hardly imagine that all 12 will be used for the mainland US, and DL will have a logic that the 5th freedom would let it operate more cities to the mainland US and increase competition. If some of the new slots will go HNL or even GUM, I would say DL's SIN will be more beneficial for most Americans. But I don't know whether there's a restriction regarding 5th freedom or not out of HND.

NH is about to launch A380 flights on NRT-HNL, but with these many new slots, many of NRT-HNL will shift to HND and NH's A380 flights would be in jeopardy. A380 still isn't allowed at HND during the day but I thought the cozy relationship between NH and the government would relax the restriction already.

They are also going to recycle some existing slots like some of those HND-KIX slot that was designed for domestic-international transfer and reallocate them to international flights, although it's still under discussion and haven't been finalized yet.
 
Lootess
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:30 pm

kavok wrote:
sagechan wrote:
Seems like DL would be better off moving it's 5th freedom flights to ICN once they lose the excuse of HND being restricted.


As I understand it, the fifth freedom flights are the result of a negotiation between the US and Japan, going back to WWII. As such, I assume DL can’t move them from Japan.

5th Freedoms by DL from ICN would require permission from the Korean government, which has no reason to grant it. I can’t image KE would be too happy with DL 5th Freedoms from ICN either.


Cho would never allow it, it was already hard enough to get a JV.
 
jrkmsp
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:25 pm

Lootess wrote:
kavok wrote:
sagechan wrote:
Seems like DL would be better off moving it's 5th freedom flights to ICN once they lose the excuse of HND being restricted.


As I understand it, the fifth freedom flights are the result of a negotiation between the US and Japan, going back to WWII. As such, I assume DL can’t move them from Japan.

5th Freedoms by DL from ICN would require permission from the Korean government, which has no reason to grant it. I can’t image KE would be too happy with DL 5th Freedoms from ICN either.


Cho would never allow it, it was already hard enough to get a JV.


If Delta wanted to fly ICN-SIN it could, but more likely, I think, is a new SEA-SIN route. If I remember, 2020 is when the new international arrivals area opens at Sea-Tac. What happens to MNL is anyone’s guess.
 
mdavies06
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:55 pm

Currently per my understanding (please correct if wrong) it is NH(3), UA(1), JL(2), AA(1), DL(2), HA(1), for a total of 10. Let's assume the new number of slot pairs increase to a total of 10+12+12 = 34. Lets begin with the Japan side. Japan may allocate NH(+7) and JL(+5) due to a slight favoritism towards NH. To balance this out, DoT most likely will seek to overweight DL and HA, followed by AA and UA last. Something like HA(+1), DL(+6), AA(+3), UA(+2) would do best to maximise public interest. This leads to A*(13), OW(11), DL(8) and HA(2), involving DL(8), AA(4) and UA(3).

From this back of the envelope allocation, I think one thing that's clear is an equal share across A*, OW and others would be difficult as long as Japan continues to favour NH over JL, and there being no 3rd carrier from Japan to allocate to. It would be very difficult to justify going above 8 for DL whilst allocating only 3 for UA, for example, giving considerations to the criterias in the DoT docket, the network strength of each carriers and how they can lead to public benefits.
 
drdisque
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:38 pm

jumbojet wrote:
like it or not, DL metal to SIN/MNL will vanish. With most if not all DL flights flying into HND, that will succinctly end DL service to SE Asia. Only way will be via AF/KLM going one eastbound and Korean Air going TPAC. That will leave UA as the only US based airline to serve Singapore.


If DL wants to stay in SIN, it will be with SEA-SIN once they get enough A350's (SEA-SIN is 700 miles shorter than LAX-SIN).
 
N174UA
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:00 pm

Once these 12 slots have been allocated, what is the timing for when the airlines would move their existing flights to/from NRT over to HND?

From reading through the comments by others, my thought is that DL and HA will be the big winners on the US side, and UA on the short end with 1-2 slots based on the JV with NH.

I'm particularly interested in the outcome for SEA and PDX. For SEA in particular, there will soon be three carriers on the NRT route, with JL restarting service shortly. If DL moves their flight (with the A359) to HND, then NH and JL would quickly move their flights to HND to compete.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:30 pm

N174UA wrote:
Once these 12 slots have been allocated, what is the timing for when the airlines would move their existing flights to/from NRT over to HND?


Hi Sam,
The slots are effective IATA S20 schedule season which commences March 29, 2020.
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klm617
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:41 pm

I think these are pretty much givens and with 12 pairs up for grabs no reason why these should not be granted.

HND-DTW
HND-ATL
HND-SEA
HND-PDX
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vadodara
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:28 pm

psa1011 wrote:
Maybe AS could lease a widebody and be the surprise new entrant instead of letting Delta eat their lunch;)


If nothing, AS should ask for both SEA and PDX.

Perhaps throwing LAX to get DL riled.
 
FSDan
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:50 pm

I think DL will apply for at least 6: the obvious SEA, DTW, and ATL, plus PDX, JFK, and probably HNL. I don't think they'll apply for BOS, but I could be wrong there. I agree with others that they'll likely try to use this opportunity to completely exit NRT, and possibly to exit HNL-Japan flying as well (is that flying included in the KE JV?).

HA could apply for an additional frequency to allow their existing 2nd HNL flight and their KOA flight to both go daily (although these flights might be outside this whole process, since I believe they're nighttime slots...). I'm not sure if HA would want to move their daily NRT flight to HND - it probably gives them a broader reach to serve both airports, especially given that their traffic mix is the most skewed toward leisure of any airline that will be applying for slots.

AA and UA definitely need to think about their requests a little more carefully given their JVs with Japanese partners. O&D traffic is important, but so is connecting traffic, and NRT offers a broader ranger of beyond-Japan connections. Since AA is comparatively smaller at NRT, I could see them wanting to simplify operations by consolidating everything at HND and letting JL do all the NRT-U.S. flying (keeping at least one daily frequency to each of LAX, DFW, ORD, and JFK, along with perhaps SAN since the SAN-NRT flight is the only Asia connection for SAN, and it's therefore important to maintain more beyond-TYO connections). For UA, I think EWR will be the priority, followed by IAD, IAH, and LAX. However, for any of those other than EWR, if UA doesn't get the requested frequencies NH will likely be able to cover those markets.
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c933103
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:02 pm

vadodara wrote:
psa1011 wrote:
Maybe AS could lease a widebody and be the surprise new entrant instead of letting Delta eat their lunch;)


If nothing, AS should ask for both SEA and PDX.

Perhaps throwing LAX to get DL riled.

Any possibility for A321LR ANC-HND?
 
FSDan
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:08 pm

mdavies06 wrote:
To balance this out, DoT most likely will seek to overweight DL and HA, followed by AA and UA last. Something like HA(+1), DL(+6), AA(+3), UA(+2) would do best to maximise public interest. This leads to A*(13), OW(11), DL(8) and HA(2), involving DL(8), AA(4) and UA(3).


I like that split. It could end up looking something like this:

DL

SEA x1
PDX x1
LAX x1
MSP x1
DTW x1
ATL x1
JFK x1
HNL x1

HA

HNL x2
KOA x1

AA/JL

SEA x1 (JL)
SFO x1 (JL)
LAX x2 (1x AA + 1x JL)
DFW x2 (AA)
ORD x1 (AA)
JFK x1 (JL)
BOS x1 (JL)
HNL x2 (JL)

UA/NH

SEA x1 (NH)
SFO x2 (1x UA + 1x NH)
SJC x1 (NH)
LAX x2 (NH)
IAH x1 (NH)
ORD x2 (NH)
IAD x1 (UA)
EWR x1 (UA)
JFK x1 (NH)
HNL x1 (NH)
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TransWorldOne
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:12 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
Lootess wrote:
kavok wrote:

As I understand it, the fifth freedom flights are the result of a negotiation between the US and Japan, going back to WWII. As such, I assume DL can’t move them from Japan.

5th Freedoms by DL from ICN would require permission from the Korean government, which has no reason to grant it. I can’t image KE would be too happy with DL 5th Freedoms from ICN either.


Cho would never allow it, it was already hard enough to get a JV.


If Delta wanted to fly ICN-SIN it could, but more likely, I think, is a new SEA-SIN route. If I remember, 2020 is when the new international arrivals area opens at Sea-Tac. What happens to MNL is anyone’s guess.


SEA-SIN on DL? Give me a break. DL couldn’t even make SEA-HKG work. Once DL leaves NRT, the SIN station will be closed and customers will have to connect through ICN on KE. Same with MNL.
 
Akiestar
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:35 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
Lootess wrote:
kavok wrote:

As I understand it, the fifth freedom flights are the result of a negotiation between the US and Japan, going back to WWII. As such, I assume DL can’t move them from Japan.

5th Freedoms by DL from ICN would require permission from the Korean government, which has no reason to grant it. I can’t image KE would be too happy with DL 5th Freedoms from ICN either.


Cho would never allow it, it was already hard enough to get a JV.


If Delta wanted to fly ICN-SIN it could, but more likely, I think, is a new SEA-SIN route. If I remember, 2020 is when the new international arrivals area opens at Sea-Tac. What happens to MNL is anyone’s guess.


If you ask me, DL would have to be crazy to drop MNL. MNL-NRT traffic is pretty high-yielding in general (hence why you have DL, PR, NH and JL all in on it), so if DL intends to draw down NRT entirely, they might as well launch new U.S. service rather than shift everything to an already-crowded KE (which, thanks to the strong tourist market plus strong O/D demand, already has 18x weekly service to MNL, plus a rotation to CEB).

Plus DL flyers ex-MNL are very loyal, and DL would have to think twice to squander all the good will they've built in the local market thanks to NW. Inasmuch as I know DL is a company, this is something I'd think they want to bear in mind, especially given the very long history of NW/DL in the Philippines, etc.
 
jbs2886
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:56 pm

Akiestar wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
Lootess wrote:

Cho would never allow it, it was already hard enough to get a JV.


If Delta wanted to fly ICN-SIN it could, but more likely, I think, is a new SEA-SIN route. If I remember, 2020 is when the new international arrivals area opens at Sea-Tac. What happens to MNL is anyone’s guess.


If you ask me, DL would have to be crazy to drop MNL. MNL-NRT traffic is pretty high-yielding in general (hence why you have DL, PR, NH and JL all in on it), so if DL intends to draw down NRT entirely, they might as well launch new U.S. service rather than shift everything to an already-crowded KE (which, thanks to the strong tourist market plus strong O/D demand, already has 18x weekly service to MNL, plus a rotation to CEB).

Plus DL flyers ex-MNL are very loyal, and DL would have to think twice to squander all the good will they've built in the local market thanks to NW. Inasmuch as I know DL is a company, this is something I'd think they want to bear in mind, especially given the very long history of NW/DL in the Philippines, etc.


This is literally the first time I have ever heard of NRT-MNL as "high yielding" - maybe it is, but that's not the general perception, IMO. Do you have any evidence (just curious)?
 
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TransWorldOne
Posts: 292
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:04 pm

Akiestar wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
Lootess wrote:

Cho would never allow it, it was already hard enough to get a JV.


If Delta wanted to fly ICN-SIN it could, but more likely, I think, is a new SEA-SIN route. If I remember, 2020 is when the new international arrivals area opens at Sea-Tac. What happens to MNL is anyone’s guess.


If you ask me, DL would have to be crazy to drop MNL. MNL-NRT traffic is pretty high-yielding in general (hence why you have DL, PR, NH and JL all in on it), so if DL intends to draw down NRT entirely, they might as well launch new U.S. service rather than shift everything to an already-crowded KE (which, thanks to the strong tourist market plus strong O/D demand, already has 18x weekly service to MNL, plus a rotation to CEB).

Plus DL flyers ex-MNL are very loyal, and DL would have to think twice to squander all the good will they've built in the local market thanks to NW. Inasmuch as I know DL is a company, this is something I'd think they want to bear in mind, especially given the very long history of NW/DL in the Philippines, etc.


MNL is high-yielding? Are you so sure about that? It’s a large market for sure, but high yielding? I’d like to see some data on that. DL/NW have been there for years, yes, but the same could be said for HKG, TPE, GUM, ROR, etc., and look at what happened to those stations. DL clearly wants to rely on JV partners as much as possible, wherever possible, especially for long and thin routes. I can’t imagine that we will still see DL metal in SIN or MNL in a year from now. I would love to be wrong though.

My opinion is that DL will intend to operate HND-SEA/LAX/MSP/DTW/ATL and that’s it. PDX and HNL would be a bonus but I wouldn’t bet on either. With DL struggling to fill planes in SEA with high yielding fares, I would imagine it’d be better for them to route PDX-TYO traffic through their SEA hub.
 
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psa1011
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:11 pm

Anyone think JL might also apply for HND-SEA to partner with AS and compete with DL?
 
khinstorff
Posts: 89
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:20 pm

FSDan wrote:
mdavies06 wrote:
To balance this out, DoT most likely will seek to overweight DL and HA, followed by AA and UA last. Something like HA(+1), DL(+6), AA(+3), UA(+2) would do best to maximise public interest. This leads to A*(13), OW(11), DL(8) and HA(2), involving DL(8), AA(4) and UA(3).


I like that split. It could end up looking something like this:

DL

SEA x1
PDX x1
LAX x1
MSP x1
DTW x1
ATL x1
JFK x1
HNL x1

HA

HNL x2
KOA x1

AA/JL

SEA x1 (JL)
SFO x1 (JL)
LAX x2 (1x AA + 1x JL)
DFW x2 (AA)
ORD x1 (AA)
JFK x1 (JL)
BOS x1 (JL)
HNL x2 (JL)

UA/NH

SEA x1 (NH)
SFO x2 (1x UA + 1x NH)
SJC x1 (NH)
LAX x2 (NH)
IAH x1 (NH)
ORD x2 (NH)
IAD x1 (UA)
EWR x1 (UA)
JFK x1 (NH)
HNL x1 (NH)


Interesting that you think DEN gets left out. 1x (UA) to NRT and 1x (NH) HND seems doable.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:24 pm

psa1011 wrote:
Anyone think JL might also apply for HND-SEA to partner with AS and compete with DL?


Nothing for JAL to apply for. This process is for U.S. carriers.

The Japanese government will assign slots to their carriers, who then are free to allocate them on the routes they desire to operate.

If JAL wanted to operate its future SEA service from HND, it could do it already using its existing HND allocation.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
blockski
Posts: 425
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:45 pm

LAXintl wrote:
psa1011 wrote:
Anyone think JL might also apply for HND-SEA to partner with AS and compete with DL?


Nothing for JAL to apply for. This process is for U.S. carriers.

The Japanese government will assign slots to their carriers, who then are free to allocate them on the routes they desire to operate.

If JAL wanted to operate its future SEA service from HND, it could do it already using its existing HND allocation.


Nothing for JAL (or ANA) to apply for, but I do wonder how the DOT will weigh the joint ventures with AA and UA in awarding slots.

Likewise, I'm curious how that will strategically impact what UA and AA ask for, particularly knowing that their partners could backfill some routes. And also, given that they won't be able to move their entire operations to HND, what a rebalanced operation between NRT/HND works for UA/NH and AA/JL.
 
dlphoenix
Posts: 126
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2007 7:30 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:46 pm

mdavies06 wrote:
Currently per my understanding (please correct if wrong) it is NH(3), UA(1), JL(2), AA(1), DL(2), HA(1), for a total of 10. Let's assume the new number of slot pairs increase to a total of 10+12+12 = 34. Lets begin with the Japan side. Japan may allocate NH(+7) and JL(+5) due to a slight favoritism towards NH. To balance this out, DoT most likely will seek to overweight DL and HA, followed by AA and UA last. Something like HA(+1), DL(+6), AA(+3), UA(+2) would do best to maximise public interest. This leads to A*(13), OW(11), DL(8) and HA(2), involving DL(8), AA(4) and UA(3).

From this back of the envelope allocation, I think one thing that's clear is an equal share across A*, OW and others would be difficult as long as Japan continues to favour NH over JL, and there being no 3rd carrier from Japan to allocate to. It would be very difficult to justify going above 8 for DL whilst allocating only 3 for UA, for example, giving considerations to the criterias in the DoT docket, the network strength of each carriers and how they can lead to public benefits.


IMHO the DOT will distribute slots more evenly.
They recently denied UA's request for a second daily EWR-PVG while allowing DL to keep a dormant MSP-PVG slot pair. They could not be more anti-competitive even if they tried.
I predict the following:
- HA: +0. There is no way to justify two Daily flights HNL-HND while leaving DEN, IAH or ORD out.
- DL + 5 (Will they be creative enough to apply for BOS?)
- AA + 3
- UA + 4

Happy travels
DLP
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2612
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:02 pm

I am not sure NH & JL will be able to fill out all 12 of their slot pairs from 2020.
Moving any of the trans-pacific flights from NRT to HND will decrease their connecting traffic to their Asian flights unless there is duplication on destination like LAX.
For example, if UA were to move their IAD or IAH flights, there would be nothing for the eastbound connections in the afternoon. I am sure AA-JL and UA-NH will talk and figure things out. I suppose less UA and AA apply for HND slots, the winner will be DL.
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2612
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:04 pm

I am not sure NH & JL will be able to fill out all 12 of their slot pairs from 2020.
Moving any of the trans-pacific flights from NRT to HND will decrease their connecting traffic to their Asian flights unless there is duplication on destination like LAX.
For example, if UA were to move their IAD or IAH flights, there would be nothing for the eastbound connections in the afternoon. I am sure AA-JL and UA-NH will talk and figure things out. I suppose less UA and AA apply for HND slots, the winner will be DL.
 
klm617
Posts: 4131
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:25 pm

Akiestar wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
Lootess wrote:

Cho would never allow it, it was already hard enough to get a JV.


If Delta wanted to fly ICN-SIN it could, but more likely, I think, is a new SEA-SIN route. If I remember, 2020 is when the new international arrivals area opens at Sea-Tac. What happens to MNL is anyone’s guess.


If you ask me, DL would have to be crazy to drop MNL. MNL-NRT traffic is pretty high-yielding in general (hence why you have DL, PR, NH and JL all in on it), so if DL intends to draw down NRT entirely, they might as well launch new U.S. service rather than shift everything to an already-crowded KE (which, thanks to the strong tourist market plus strong O/D demand, already has 18x weekly service to MNL, plus a rotation to CEB).

Plus DL flyers ex-MNL are very loyal, and DL would have to think twice to squander all the good will they've built in the local market thanks to NW. Inasmuch as I know DL is a company, this is something I'd think they want to bear in mind, especially given the very long history of NW/DL in the Philippines, etc.


Maybe they might tag MNL on the DTW-NGO flight again or perhaps a new DTW-KIX-MNL flight. Maybe even DTW-NGO-SIN and DTW-KIX-MNL. Maybe even DTW-HKG-SIN
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
hkcanadaexpat
Posts: 3532
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:33 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:41 pm

FSDan wrote:
HA could apply for an additional frequency to allow their existing 2nd HNL flight and their KOA flight to both go daily (although these flights might be outside this whole process, since I believe they're nighttime slots...). I'm not sure if HA would want to move their daily NRT flight to HND - it probably gives them a broader reach to serve both airports, especially given that their traffic mix is the most skewed toward leisure of any airline that will be applying for slots.

You are not taking into account that JL and HA are in a JV on Hawaii-Japan market and that they coordinate scheduled and routes now. Its not as simple as HA consolidating ops in HND. Any application/decision will be taken in light of the JV. The JV probably currently lacks a 7:00-7:30pm HND-HNL flight to complement the 9:30pm and 11:30pm flights. So from the JAL JV perspective, one is probably looking at 1-2 slot applications. One for the early flight into HNL and the other to split the HNL/KOA 11:30pm flight into daily each. I would certainly think JAL will apply for at least 1 of those 2 slots.

Separately there's continuous talk of someone finally putting an Tokyo-Hawaii day flight (red eye west bound). But i would think that's a NRT flight if at all. I'd certainly welcome it. Red eyes in both directions would save a lot of time on the beach!
 
questions
Posts: 1759
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:49 pm

jumbojet wrote:
like it or not, DL metal to SIN/MNL will vanish. With most if not all DL flights flying into HND, that will succinctly end DL service to SE Asia. Only way will be via AF/KLM going one eastbound and Korean Air going TPAC. That will leave UA as the only US based airline to serve Singapore.


Agree. But sad Delta has squandered and been unable to build up TPAC. I understand their international network strategy is different than UA but I think they are too reliant on simply pushing traffic to partner hubs.
 
FSDan
Posts: 2302
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:40 pm

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
FSDan wrote:
HA could apply for an additional frequency to allow their existing 2nd HNL flight and their KOA flight to both go daily (although these flights might be outside this whole process, since I believe they're nighttime slots...). I'm not sure if HA would want to move their daily NRT flight to HND - it probably gives them a broader reach to serve both airports, especially given that their traffic mix is the most skewed toward leisure of any airline that will be applying for slots.

You are not taking into account that JL and HA are in a JV on Hawaii-Japan market and that they coordinate scheduled and routes now. Its not as simple as HA consolidating ops in HND. Any application/decision will be taken in light of the JV. The JV probably currently lacks a 7:00-7:30pm HND-HNL flight to complement the 9:30pm and 11:30pm flights. So from the JAL JV perspective, one is probably looking at 1-2 slot applications. One for the early flight into HNL and the other to split the HNL/KOA 11:30pm flight into daily each. I would certainly think JAL will apply for at least 1 of those 2 slots.

Separately there's continuous talk of someone finally putting an Tokyo-Hawaii day flight (red eye west bound). But i would think that's a NRT flight if at all. I'd certainly welcome it. Red eyes in both directions would save a lot of time on the beach!


Thanks for pointing that out - I didn't realize HA and JL had a JV on Hawaii-Japan. However, I didn't suggest HA would try to consolidate ops at HND. And I did (in another post) arrive at the same conclusion that JL will use at least 1-2 of their awards for HND-HNL service. The only point I think we differed on is that I thought HA would apply for an additional slot to round their current 4/3 split HNL/KOA service out to daily to both destinations, rather than JL being the one to fill those services out.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2003
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:49 pm

FSDan wrote:
hkcanadaexpat wrote:
FSDan wrote:
HA could apply for an additional frequency to allow their existing 2nd HNL flight and their KOA flight to both go daily (although these flights might be outside this whole process, since I believe they're nighttime slots...). I'm not sure if HA would want to move their daily NRT flight to HND - it probably gives them a broader reach to serve both airports, especially given that their traffic mix is the most skewed toward leisure of any airline that will be applying for slots.

You are not taking into account that JL and HA are in a JV on Hawaii-Japan market and that they coordinate scheduled and routes now. Its not as simple as HA consolidating ops in HND. Any application/decision will be taken in light of the JV. The JV probably currently lacks a 7:00-7:30pm HND-HNL flight to complement the 9:30pm and 11:30pm flights. So from the JAL JV perspective, one is probably looking at 1-2 slot applications. One for the early flight into HNL and the other to split the HNL/KOA 11:30pm flight into daily each. I would certainly think JAL will apply for at least 1 of those 2 slots.

Separately there's continuous talk of someone finally putting an Tokyo-Hawaii day flight (red eye west bound). But i would think that's a NRT flight if at all. I'd certainly welcome it. Red eyes in both directions would save a lot of time on the beach!


Thanks for pointing that out - I didn't realize HA and JL had a JV on Hawaii-Japan. However, I didn't suggest HA would try to consolidate ops at HND. And I did (in another post) arrive at the same conclusion that JL will use at least 1-2 of their awards for HND-HNL service. The only point I think we differed on is that I thought HA would apply for an additional slot to round their current 4/3 split HNL/KOA service out to daily to both destinations, rather than JL being the one to fill those services out.


I don’t think the JV has been approved. Even if it has, it is not in effect. Here is the PR announcing the application and there have been no updates since. https://newsroom.hawaiianairlines.com/r ... nt-venture
 
FSDan
Posts: 2302
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:52 pm

Carpethead wrote:
I am not sure NH & JL will be able to fill out all 12 of their slot pairs from 2020.
Moving any of the trans-pacific flights from NRT to HND will decrease their connecting traffic to their Asian flights unless there is duplication on destination like LAX.
For example, if UA were to move their IAD or IAH flights, there would be nothing for the eastbound connections in the afternoon. I am sure AA-JL and UA-NH will talk and figure things out. I suppose less UA and AA apply for HND slots, the winner will be DL.


I agree. Particularly for the destinations where each JV only has a single NRT flight currently (SEA, SAN, BOS for AA/JL; SEA, SJC, DEN, EWR for UA/NH). For these destinations, the JVs will probably want to take a hard look at the % of beyond-Japan connecting traffic before deciding to move the existing flight to HND. I think that for EWR, potentially BOS, and maybe SEA for one or both JVs, it could make sense to move the existing flight to HND since there are more options to Asia in general for the beyond-Japan connections. But for SJC, SAN, and DEN, the existing NRT flights are the primary (and in two cases the only) link to Asia for the market and probably carry a decent amount of traffic beyond Japan. I could see SJC-NRT moving to HND since there's another Asian link (HU to PEK) and the O&D between SJC and TYO should be pretty strong, but I think SAN and DEN will stay at NRT, at least for now.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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KanaHawaii
Posts: 156
Joined: Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:43 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:19 am

kavok wrote:

Put it another way, what other markets can AA/UA/HA put in for that make more sense?

AA: DFW, PHL, ORD?
UA: EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, IAD?
HA: OGG, KOA?



It will be a long time before OGG ever gets international service to Asia. First off there is general opposition to extending the one long runway at OGG. Furthermore the residents in Maui are "okay" right now with the service received from Canada - which didn't require the airport to change its designation to "International", but they have been way more leery about allowing further international operations from there.

The build up of KOA as a true secondary Hawaii destination for international airlines seems to be the focus of the HDOT at this time.
 
N174UA
Posts: 977
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2006 4:17 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:28 am

KanaHawaii wrote:
kavok wrote:

Put it another way, what other markets can AA/UA/HA put in for that make more sense?

AA: DFW, PHL, ORD?
UA: EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, IAD?
HA: OGG, KOA?



It will be a long time before OGG ever gets international service to Asia. First off there is general opposition to extending the one long runway at OGG. Furthermore the residents in Maui are "okay" right now with the service received from Canada - which didn't require the airport to change its designation to "International", but they have been way more leery about allowing further international operations from there.

The build up of KOA as a true secondary Hawaii destination for international airlines seems to be the focus of the HDOT at this time.


Agreed. Plus KOA has a 10,000 foot runway, and wouldn't need to really ever be extended or have another runway added. It will be interesting to see what they do with the terminal area. It's so unique now with it being open air.
 
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KanaHawaii
Posts: 156
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:46 am

N174UA wrote:
KanaHawaii wrote:
kavok wrote:

Put it another way, what other markets can AA/UA/HA put in for that make more sense?

AA: DFW, PHL, ORD?
UA: EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, IAD?
HA: OGG, KOA?



It will be a long time before OGG ever gets international service to Asia. First off there is general opposition to extending the one long runway at OGG. Furthermore the residents in Maui are "okay" right now with the service received from Canada - which didn't require the airport to change its designation to "International", but they have been way more leery about allowing further international operations from there.

The build up of KOA as a true secondary Hawaii destination for international airlines seems to be the focus of the HDOT at this time.


Agreed. Plus KOA has a 10,000 foot runway, and wouldn't need to really ever be extended or have another runway added. It will be interesting to see what they do with the terminal area. It's so unique now with it being open air.


Since 2017, the HDOT has been doing work on KOA that both keeps the character of the terminals while makes it more practical to travelers
http://hidot.hawaii.gov/blog/2017/03/22 ... t-keahole/
 
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jetblastdubai
Posts: 1823
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:47 am

FSDan wrote:

DL

JFK x1


I'd be curious to see the justification DL would have for requesting JFK-HND when they don't currently even attempt JFK-NRT.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
kavok
Posts: 508
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:17 am

AA is also in an interesting spot. Obviously they would probably want 2x from DFW, but asking for two slots from the same location probably wouldn’t look favorable to the DOT. Probably best to let JL do the other DFW frequency. It is a somewhat similar situation in asking for a second LAX frequency.

I think AA definitely asks for DFW & ORD, but unsure where after that. PHL/JFK/PHX? Or do they go bold and hope to be awarded with LAX2 or DFW2..? I see now why AA was in agreement of DL’s request to move around HND slots, as they could have applied for somewhere else this time, and then eventually move that extra HND slot to LAX/DFW.
 
kavok
Posts: 508
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:22 am

jetblastdubai wrote:
FSDan wrote:

DL

JFK x1


I'd be curious to see the justification DL would have for requesting JFK-HND when they don't currently even attempt JFK-NRT.


The argument is that DL doesn’t operate JFK-Tokyo today because the Japanese carriers have JFK-HND access, and DL doesn’t. Thus DL is at an imposed disadvantage competitively by having to operate at NRT, and so they don’t offer JFK-Tokyo. If given a JFK-HND slot, DL will argue they can then compete on a fair playing field with the Japanese carriers.
 
winginit
Posts: 2398
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:47 am

klm617 wrote:
Akiestar wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:

If Delta wanted to fly ICN-SIN it could, but more likely, I think, is a new SEA-SIN route. If I remember, 2020 is when the new international arrivals area opens at Sea-Tac. What happens to MNL is anyone’s guess.


If you ask me, DL would have to be crazy to drop MNL. MNL-NRT traffic is pretty high-yielding in general (hence why you have DL, PR, NH and JL all in on it), so if DL intends to draw down NRT entirely, they might as well launch new U.S. service rather than shift everything to an already-crowded KE (which, thanks to the strong tourist market plus strong O/D demand, already has 18x weekly service to MNL, plus a rotation to CEB).

Plus DL flyers ex-MNL are very loyal, and DL would have to think twice to squander all the good will they've built in the local market thanks to NW. Inasmuch as I know DL is a company, this is something I'd think they want to bear in mind, especially given the very long history of NW/DL in the Philippines, etc.


Maybe they might tag MNL on the DTW-NGO flight again or perhaps a new DTW-KIX-MNL flight. Maybe even DTW-NGO-SIN and DTW-KIX-MNL. Maybe even DTW-HKG-SIN


I wouldn't be surprised to see nonstop DL metal to MNL from SEA in the next two to three years or from LAX in the next three to five years.

As for more tags or fifth freedom flying, Ed and/or Glen have said numerous times publicly that once the NRT hub is drawn down they have no intention of re-introducing fifth freedoms. They're inefficient and now mostly irrelevant with the DL/KE JV in place.
 
B1168
Posts: 354
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:26 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:00 am

Actually, I do wonder the transfer share of transfer itineraries for the routes they desire to switch to HND.
HND only serve the three largest metropolitans in China, in which only CAN (who strangely get 4D from HND yet 1D from NRT) and TSN will have justifiable need on US transfer traffic.
Meanwhile, NRT have service to nearly 1 dozen additional destinations like CGO and FOC, many of which pose little (i.e. 2wk 788 XIY-LAX) to no (I.e. CGO) US nonstop service.
The question is, how much of transfer traffic will be lost in the process of transferring US flights from NRT to HND due to the loss of accessibility from small cities to Tokyo’s west?
 
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compensateme
Posts: 3072
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:30 am

FSDan wrote:
I think DL will apply for at least 6: the obvious SEA, DTW, and ATL, plus PDX, JFK, and probably HNL. I don't think they'll apply for BOS, but I could be wrong there. I agree with others that they'll likely try to use this opportunity to completely exit NRT


I’m puzzled as to why you believe DL will apply for JFK — DL reported it incurred significant losses when it serviced NRT. Moving ATL, DTW, SEA and probably PDX and HNL will take priority over experimenting with new service to JFK and BOS, and I suspect the end game will be to close NRT. Adding new service makes it less likely DL will secure the routes it truly wants, especially when it lost its case to move MSP elsewhere.
Nobody cares what your next flight is...
 
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compensateme
Posts: 3072
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:42 am

winginit wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see nonstop DL metal to MNL from SEA in the next two to three years or from LAX in the next three to five years.


I would be surprised; the route’s almost entirely VFR. SF and Toronto are home to the second and third largest Fillipino populations in North America, and neither UA nor AC serves the market, despite large intercontinental expansions now focusing on second-tier cities. Ain’t no way DL’s trying the route from SEA, and even LAX is unlikely. Especially with PR probably flooding additional capacity into the NA market in effort to create a SE Asia hub at MNL.

If DL had reduced the D1 cabin in the 777 and went 10-across in economy, maybe we’d see LAX-MNL, JFK-TYO, etc.
Nobody cares what your next flight is...
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Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos