Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

77H · Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:56 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
77H wrote:
RWA, my recollection of HA’s slot awards are very similar to your statements. As a matter of fact, I seem to recall some, if not all of the “US3” carriers mentioning that exact argument in their statements to the DOT. It was well known that primary POS was going to be in Japan. Nevertheless HA was awarded the slot and went on to be the only carrier to operate the route with no service disruptions, downgauges etc. When day time slots became available the same arguments were made by the US3. HA was awarded slots but not in line with their full request which was for HNL and KOA to operate daily, concurrently.

DL and AA had many changes to HND service, but UA did not. They’ve been eager to offer service and when they finally won a slot they delivered.

I still think that the US3 have long provided far more service to the TYO market and should be awarded all of the new slots. The Hawaii market isn’t worth using these precious slots on given that it’s almost entirely Japan POS leisure traffics. Just ramp up NRT service. It will do fine.

So by extension you believe DL shouldn’t be able to use the slots for beyond flights and AA shouldn’t be able to use them for LAS correct? Since those highly favor JP point of sale?

77H

RWA380 · Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:46 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
77H wrote:
RWA, my recollection of HA’s slot awards are very similar to your statements. As a matter of fact, I seem to recall some, if not all of the “US3” carriers mentioning that exact argument in their statements to the DOT. It was well known that primary POS was going to be in Japan. Nevertheless HA was awarded the slot and went on to be the only carrier to operate the route with no service disruptions, downgauges etc. When day time slots became available the same arguments were made by the US3. HA was awarded slots but not in line with their full request which was for HNL and KOA to operate daily, concurrently.

DL and AA had many changes to HND service, but UA did not. They’ve been eager to offer service and when they finally won a slot they delivered.

I still think that the US3 have long provided far more service to the TYO market and should be awarded all of the new slots. The Hawaii market isn’t worth using these precious slots on given that it’s almost entirely Japan POS leisure traffics. Just ramp up NRT service. It will do fine.

I disagree with this, the fact that HA can offer both HND & NRT to HNL currently & fill those aircraft, show that Tokyo is very spread out & there is enough demand from two different parts of Tokyo to fill multiple daily A-332's. I would hope that our government can see the incoming tourist dollars to tourism dependent areas of our country, is indeed a benefit to working America. Hawaii & Vegas are great examples. UA has more HND access with NH & does AA with JL. DL is placing their cards with KE at ICN & will have more than enough connectivity to all of Asia. I think all of the applications have merit & no one carrier deserves the lions share of slots, but they should instead try to honor requests from multiple carriers.

jbpdx · Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:43 am

DL PDX-HND; everything else, whatever.

SFOtoORD · Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:24 am

RWA380 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
77H wrote:
RWA, my recollection of HA’s slot awards are very similar to your statements. As a matter of fact, I seem to recall some, if not all of the “US3” carriers mentioning that exact argument in their statements to the DOT. It was well known that primary POS was going to be in Japan. Nevertheless HA was awarded the slot and went on to be the only carrier to operate the route with no service disruptions, downgauges etc. When day time slots became available the same arguments were made by the US3. HA was awarded slots but not in line with their full request which was for HNL and KOA to operate daily, concurrently.

DL and AA had many changes to HND service, but UA did not. They’ve been eager to offer service and when they finally won a slot they delivered.

I still think that the US3 have long provided far more service to the TYO market and should be awarded all of the new slots. The Hawaii market isn’t worth using these precious slots on given that it’s almost entirely Japan POS leisure traffics. Just ramp up NRT service. It will do fine.

I disagree with this, the fact that HA can offer both HND & NRT to HNL currently & fill those aircraft, show that Tokyo is very spread out & there is enough demand from two different parts of Tokyo to fill multiple daily A-332's. I would hope that our government can see the incoming tourist dollars to tourism dependent areas of our country, is indeed a benefit to working America. Hawaii & Vegas are great examples. UA has more HND access with NH & does AA with JL. DL is placing their cards with KE at ICN & will have more than enough connectivity to all of Asia. I think all of the applications have merit & no one carrier deserves the lions share of slots, but they should instead try to honor requests from multiple carriers.

These slots are most valuable for business O&D travel to Tokyo because of HND’s location. It has less to do with Tokyo connecting strategy although there will be some of that. If HA gets one slot its not the end of the world, but more than one is a complete waste as there is plenty of access via NRT. I never suggested they should honor requests from only one carrier.

RWA380 · Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:18 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

DL and AA had many changes to HND service, but UA did not. They’ve been eager to offer service and when they finally won a slot they delivered.

I still think that the US3 have long provided far more service to the TYO market and should be awarded all of the new slots. The Hawaii market isn’t worth using these precious slots on given that it’s almost entirely Japan POS leisure traffics. Just ramp up NRT service. It will do fine.

I disagree with this, the fact that HA can offer both HND & NRT to HNL currently & fill those aircraft, show that Tokyo is very spread out & there is enough demand from two different parts of Tokyo to fill multiple daily A-332's. I would hope that our government can see the incoming tourist dollars to tourism dependent areas of our country, is indeed a benefit to working America. Hawaii & Vegas are great examples. UA has more HND access with NH & does AA with JL. DL is placing their cards with KE at ICN & will have more than enough connectivity to all of Asia. I think all of the applications have merit & no one carrier deserves the lions share of slots, but they should instead try to honor requests from multiple carriers.

These slots are most valuable for business O&D travel to Tokyo because of HND’s location. It has less to do with Tokyo connecting strategy although there will be some of that. If HA gets one slot its not the end of the world, but more than one is a complete waste as there is plenty of access via NRT. I never suggested they should honor requests from only one carrier.

You are correct, you did not suggest honoring requests from one carrier, I should have been clear I was responding to multiple arguments prior to your comment that suggest, their favorite XX carrier should garner most of the slots, mostly DL fanboys. I think honoring a slot request to HA would be a good way of showing that the DOT appreciates HA using their current compliment of slots. Isn't HA creating a JV or some tie up with JL, that goes beyond just ticketing?

ITSTours · Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:06 am

http://www.shugiintv.go.jp/jp/index.php ... edia_type= (Japanese Diet, video in Japanese)
Japanese Diet member disagrees with the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (Japan).

So it is confirmed that 12 slots for the Japanese airlines are all for the US routes.
We can safely assume JAL and ANA each gets at least 5 (most likely 6-6).

This sort of guarantees at least 4 slots for Delta. More difficult for United to get 4. Let's see.

UPlog · Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:19 pm

Op-Ed with the opinion that United offers the best opportunity and public benefit for use of HND slots as its proposing to operate 3 additional frequencies, not just shift existing service from NRT to HND.

https://atwonline.com/airports-routes/o ... kyo-routes

ldvaviation · Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:12 pm

UPlog wrote:
Op-Ed with the opinion that United offers the best opportunity and public benefit for use of HND slots as its proposing to operate 3 additional frequencies, not just shift existing service from NRT to HND.

https://atwonline.com/airports-routes/o ... kyo-routes

The Op-Ed was written by United.

It is hardly definitive.

jetblastdubai · Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:17 pm

ldvaviation wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Op-Ed with the opinion that United offers the best opportunity and public benefit for use of HND slots as its proposing to operate 3 additional frequencies, not just shift existing service from NRT to HND.

https://atwonline.com/airports-routes/o ... kyo-routes

The Op-Ed was written by United.

It is hardly definitive.

You can shoot the messenger but you should refute the contents of the op-ed. Looks like UA has a pretty compelling argument here.

"United’s proposed daily flights from Newark, Los Angeles and Guam would supplement our existing daily flights between those hubs and Tokyo Narita airport. Our plan would add 350,000 annual seats to Tokyo, nearly four times more than American Airlines or Delta Air Lines. Our plan demonstrates our confidence in demand from our hubs to both Tokyo airports. United is the only applicant in the DOT process that acknowledges the importance of both Tokyo airports to US-Japan and Asia travelers, and only United provided a comprehensive plan to serve both airports. "

questions · Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:26 pm

When is a decision on the HND slots expected?

jbs2886 · Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:17 pm

jetblastdubai wrote:
ldvaviation wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Op-Ed with the opinion that United offers the best opportunity and public benefit for use of HND slots as its proposing to operate 3 additional frequencies, not just shift existing service from NRT to HND.

https://atwonline.com/airports-routes/o ... kyo-routes

The Op-Ed was written by United.

It is hardly definitive.

You can shoot the messenger but you should refute the contents of the op-ed. Looks like UA has a pretty compelling argument here.

"United’s proposed daily flights from Newark, Los Angeles and Guam would supplement our existing daily flights between those hubs and Tokyo Narita airport. Our plan would add 350,000 annual seats to Tokyo, nearly four times more than American Airlines or Delta Air Lines. Our plan demonstrates our confidence in demand from our hubs to both Tokyo airports. United is the only applicant in the DOT process that acknowledges the importance of both Tokyo airports to US-Japan and Asia travelers, and only United provided a comprehensive plan to serve both airports. "

Perhaps, but it isn't hard to imagine a scenario where those flights are dropped (the minute an economic downturn hits, they're gone). Moreover, it fails to account for the (high) probability that flights will be cancelled absent a move to HND by DL in particular, but AA as well.

ITSTours · Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:34 pm

Japanese government and airlines are more concerned about the domestic slot redistribution as the current assignments will be expired Jan 2020. Currently there are no discussion about how those 12 slots will be given to ANA and JAL.

I don't know when those discussion emerges whether they warrant a separate thread or not.

c933103 · Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:24 pm

ITSTours wrote:
Japanese government and airlines are more concerned about the domestic slot redistribution as the current assignments will be expired Jan 2020. Currently there are no discussion about how those 12 slots will be given to ANA and JAL.

I don't know when those discussion emerges whether they warrant a separate thread or not.

Last time I read they will be reallocating some slots that are currently used for domestic flights toward Asian international flights instead?

RushmoreAir · Thu May 16, 2019 9:47 pm

Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Ishrion · Thu May 16, 2019 9:51 pm

RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Well looks like the airlines got their first picks. Unfortunate that AA won't be starting LAS-HND I suppose.

Also has it been out for the past 3 days? Surprising that no one's gotten to it until now.

jetblastdubai · Thu May 16, 2019 9:57 pm

RushmoreAir wrote:
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)

Does DL close down shop at NRT now?

carljanderson · Thu May 16, 2019 9:59 pm

jetblastdubai wrote:
RushmoreAir wrote:
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)

Does DL close down shop at NRT now?

Yes.

I'd be shocked if they don't.

jbs2886 · Thu May 16, 2019 10:02 pm

Ishrion wrote:
RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Well looks like the airlines got their first picks. Unfortunate that AA won't be starting LAS-HND I suppose.

Also has it been out for the past 3 days? Surprising that no one's gotten to it until now.

It was just posted today per the link.

ITSTours · Thu May 16, 2019 10:03 pm

RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

This is in line with almost everybody's guess.

RushmoreAir · Thu May 16, 2019 10:04 pm

Ishrion wrote:

Also has it been out for the past 3 days? Surprising that no one's gotten to it until now.

DOT has a weird date convention ... this order was actually released to airlines this afternoon and posted on regulations.gov at 5pm Eastern. Actual PDF order itself is dated today, 5/16.

Now airlines and other interested parties have two weeks to submit the last round of objections/comments before the ruling becomes final. In this specific instance, we're technically also waiting on the Japanese gov't to approve the overall expansion, but I think that should eventually just be a rubber stamp.

BlatantEcho · Thu May 16, 2019 10:09 pm

100% they will bail.

More ICN flights and maybe 1-2 token flights to NRT if needed. Doubt it.

Congrats to pdx. I’ll use that flight

Delta28L · Thu May 16, 2019 10:45 pm

RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Surprised that PDX got service and not MSP

panamair · Thu May 16, 2019 10:49 pm

Delta28L wrote:
RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Surprised that PDX got service and not MSP

Delta already flies HND-MSP now with the 777. It also operates HND-LAX now (A333 now but 777 this coming winter).

x1234 · Thu May 16, 2019 10:49 pm

It looks like DL got its wish and this is the end of NRT-SIN/MNL!

janders · Thu May 16, 2019 10:53 pm

RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Good deal.

Seems the big winners are DL and UA.

AA only received half of its request including adding new gateway of LAS, while HA only receives single additional frequency when it sought more.

I think DOT took kindly to UA as it stated most of the HND flying would be additional capacity, and not come at the expense of dropping NRT routes. Smart move.

And yes, I think DL is done at NRT. Interestingly only this week in an interview with Market Place, Ed Bastian referred to ICN as a DL hub, so its clear what the internal thinking is about the carrier's position in Asia moving forward..

georgiabill · Thu May 16, 2019 10:54 pm

I do not understand why DL deserves more route authorities than UA or AA. AA should have atleast gotten 3 authorities and started service from LAS. I hope AA challenges this ruling.

cessna2 · Thu May 16, 2019 11:04 pm

x1234 wrote:
It looks like DL got its wish and this is the end of NRT-SIN/MNL!

I wouldn't go that far yet. DL is currently looking at serving them non-stop from SEA.

C010T3 · Thu May 16, 2019 11:16 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I do not understand why DL deserves more route authorities than UA or AA. AA should have atleast gotten 3 authorities and started service from LAS. I hope AA challenges this ruling.

I'm sorry, but AA completely capitulated. The fact that they did not even try applying for ORD-HND speaks volumes.

jasoncrh · Thu May 16, 2019 11:22 pm

AA did not get the LAS gateway.

janders wrote:
RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Good deal.

Seems the big winners are DL and UA.

AA only received half of its request including adding new gateway of LAS, while HA only receives single additional frequency when it sought more.

I think DOT took kindly to UA as it stated most of the HND flying would be additional capacity, and not come at the expense of dropping NRT routes. Smart move.

And yes, I think DL is done at NRT. Interestingly only this week in an interview with Market Place, Ed Bastian referred to ICN as a DL hub, so its clear what the internal thinking is about the carrier's position in Asia moving forward..

MIflyer12 · Thu May 16, 2019 11:23 pm

cessna2 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
It looks like DL got its wish and this is the end of NRT-SIN/MNL!

I wouldn't go that far yet. DL is currently looking at serving them non-stop from SEA.

Got a source for that?

SEA-SIN strikes me as wholly improbable with SQ on the route. IMHO the reconfigged 777/77L and 359s all have too many premium seats to work SEA-MNL.

winginit · Thu May 16, 2019 11:37 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I do not understand why DL deserves more route authorities than UA or AA. AA should have atleast gotten 3 authorities and started service from LAS. I hope AA challenges this ruling.

LAS was a throwaway bid from AA just like #2 HNL was a throwaway bid from DL. If AA truly wanted more they would have applied for ORD, but they didn't.

77H · Thu May 16, 2019 11:38 pm

I’m surprised the DoT granted DL a slot for HNL. DL was one of the airlines who fiercely opposed HA getting its initial slots to serve HND. With DL coming onboard that’s 3 airlines operating HND-HNL, 4 if JL reapplied for a slot to serve HNL. AA should come out swinging against that route. While I don’t think Hawaii should be overlooked simply because it’s primarily leisure/VFR traffic that favors JP POS, I do think having 3 carriers on the route is overkill especial considering quite a few carriers were not awarded slots to operate brand new routes such as HND-LAS.

77H

cessna2 · Thu May 16, 2019 11:49 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
It looks like DL got its wish and this is the end of NRT-SIN/MNL!

I wouldn't go that far yet. DL is currently looking at serving them non-stop from SEA.

Got a source for that?

SEA-SIN strikes me as wholly improbable with SQ on the route. IMHO the reconfigged 777/77L and 359s all have too many premium seats to work SEA-MNL.

VP of Network planning.

FSDan · Fri May 17, 2019 12:13 am

georgiabill wrote:
I do not understand why DL deserves more route authorities than UA or AA. AA should have atleast gotten 3 authorities and started service from LAS. I hope AA challenges this ruling.

AA has JL to supplement their offering. If the AA/JL JV is really intent on serving the LAS-HND market, JL can include that route in their likely 5-6 new HND-U.S. frequencies, along with moving their DFW-NRT flight to HND if the JV needs more HND capacity from DFW. I'd also expect JL to move their daily ORD-NRT flight to HND (perhaps with AA returning to daily on ORD-NRT), along with moving some combination of SEA, SAN, BOS, or HNL to HND.

UA is arguably the biggest winner here, as their metal-neutral JV partner NH will almost certainly be allocated at least 6 HND-U.S. frequencies in addition to UA's 4. That will put UA/NH comfortably in the leading position in the U.S.-TYO market (they're already the leader, but this will put distance between them and AA/JL), followed by AA/JL, with DL being able to maintain a fairly respectable presence in the TYO market thanks to their 5 additional awards.

WPvsMW · Fri May 17, 2019 12:32 am

[threeid][/threeid]

cessna2 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
It looks like DL got its wish and this is the end of NRT-SIN/MNL!

I wouldn't go that far yet. DL is currently looking at serving them non-stop from SEA.

But x1234 is right.... ex-NRT westbound will be zeroed out. New service to MNL and SIN from SEA doesn't change ex-NRT=0 westbound.

tpaewr · Fri May 17, 2019 12:39 am

RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Has UA ever served HND before or only CO?

klm617 · Fri May 17, 2019 12:48 am

cessna2 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
It looks like DL got its wish and this is the end of NRT-SIN/MNL!

I wouldn't go that far yet. DL is currently looking at serving them non-stop from SEA.

I think we will see something more like SEA-KIX-SIN and DTW-NGO-MNL. If they can't make SEA-HKG work I highly doubt SIN ans MNL are viable from SEA.

FSDan · Fri May 17, 2019 12:49 am

FSDan wrote:
So I guess I'm trying to look at what the overall picture might look like in the U.S.-TYO market when all is said and done. If the best case scenario happened for DL (all 6 frequencies awarded) and the DOT split the other 6 evenly between UA and AA, you could have something like this:
SEA-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 1x DL)
PDX-HND (1x DL)
SFO-NRT (1x UA)
SFO-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
SJC-HND (1x NH)
LAX-NRT (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL + 1x SQ)
LAX-HND (2x NH + 2x AA + 1x DL)
SAN-HND (1x JL)
LAS-HND (1x JL)
DEN-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-HND (1x NH)
DFW-NRT (1x JL)
DFW-HND (2x AA)
MSP-HND (1x DL)
ORD-NRT (1x NH + 1x JL)
ORD-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
DTW-HND (1x DL)
ATL-HND (1x DL)
IAD-NRT (1x NH)
IAD-HND (1x UA)
EWR-NRT (1x UA)
EWR-HND (1x UA)
JFK-NRT (1x NH + 1x JL)
JFK-HND (1x NH + 1x JL)
BOS-HND (1x JL)
HNL-NRT (2x NH + 4x JL + 1x HA)
HNL-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 1.6x HA + 2x DL)
KOA-NRT (1x JL)
KOA-HND (0.4x HA)
GUM-HND (1x NH)

In other permutations where DL doesn't get their full award, just shuffle the above flights around between carriers. For example, maybe HA ends up with 2.6x HNL-HND and DL with 1x HNL-HND. Maybe UA/NH get fewer awards than AA/JL and ORD ends up being split ORD-NRT 1x UA, ORD-HND 2x NH, with AA flying LAS-HND instead of JL, JL adding a HNL frequency instead of LAS, and NH not flying to GUM from HND... There are lots of ways this could shake out, but I do hope DL gets 5 or 6 of their requests when looking at the overall U.S.-TYO picture.

Given these tentative awards, I think the above overall picture of the U.S.-TYO market could still end up being fairly accurate, with a few changes:

DL only gets 1x HNL-HND, with HA picking up an additional HNL-HND as well for a total of 2.6x daily on HA and 1x on DL. I think JL still adds at least one daily HNL-HND as well.
AA only gets 1x DFW-HND award. I'm going to go ahead and say that JL maintains their daily DFW flight from NRT, given that the DFW-TYO O&D isn't huge. I'll also say that AA operates ORD-NRT instead of JL given that AA will probably need to keep NRT open as a station anyway at this point.
UA gets awarded LAX-HND. So maybe NH just stays at 1x daily on LAX-HND and drops their 2nd daily LAX-NRT flight since UA will also continue operating LAX-NRT. That would give the UA/NH JV 2x daily from LAX to each TYO airport. Then again, maybe UA adds their LAX-HND flight and NH moves their 2nd daily LAX-NRT to LAX-HND, giving the JV 5x daily in LAX-TYO (NH is going to have to dump their awards somewhere...).

So here's my updated estimate of the full picture as of next summer:
SEA-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 1x DL)
PDX-HND (1x DL)
SFO-NRT (1x UA)
SFO-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
SJC-HND (1x NH)
LAX-NRT (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL + 1x SQ)
LAX-HND (1x UA + 2x NH + 2x AA + 1x DL)
SAN-HND (1x JL)
LAS-HND (1x JL)
DEN-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-HND (1x NH)
DFW-NRT (1x AA + 1x JL)
DFW-HND (1x AA)
MSP-HND (1x DL)
ORD-NRT (1x NH + 1x AA)
ORD-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
DTW-HND (1x DL)
ATL-HND (1x DL)
IAD-NRT (1x NH)
IAD-HND (1x UA)
EWR-NRT (1x UA)
EWR-HND (1x UA)
JFK-NRT (1x NH + 1x JL)
JFK-HND (1x NH + 1x JL)
BOS-HND (1x JL)
HNL-NRT (2x NH + 4x JL + 1x HA)
HNL-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 2.6x HA + 1x DL)
KOA-NRT (1x JL)
KOA-HND (0.4x HA)
GUM-HND (1x NH)

lhpdx · Fri May 17, 2019 12:49 am

Congratulation to PDX!!! I wonder if Delta will add a few connecting flights to support this daily service?

klm617 · Fri May 17, 2019 12:50 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
It looks like DL got its wish and this is the end of NRT-SIN/MNL!

I wouldn't go that far yet. DL is currently looking at serving them non-stop from SEA.

Got a source for that?

SEA-SIN strikes me as wholly improbable with SQ on the route. IMHO the reconfigged 777/77L and 359s all have too many premium seats to work SEA-MNL.

A339 on DTW-NGO-MNL

STT757 · Fri May 17, 2019 12:53 am

If I recall correctly from UA’s application ORD and IAD will be a shift of existing NRT flights to HND. EWR and LAX will be new adds that will be in addition to the existing NRT flights.

ORD 772, LAX 787–10, EWR 772, IAD 772.

CriticalPoint · Fri May 17, 2019 12:55 am

tpaewr wrote:
RushmoreAir wrote:
Order to show cause is out!

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0079

Tentative allocations:
AA: DFW (1x), LAX
DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX, HNL (1x)
HA: HNL (1x)
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD, LAX

Has UA ever served HND before or only CO?

I’m pretty sure CO never served HND.

STT757 · Fri May 17, 2019 1:04 am

FSDan wrote:
FSDan wrote:
So I guess I'm trying to look at what the overall picture might look like in the U.S.-TYO market when all is said and done. If the best case scenario happened for DL (all 6 frequencies awarded) and the DOT split the other 6 evenly between UA and AA, you could have something like this:
SEA-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 1x DL)
PDX-HND (1x DL)
SFO-NRT (1x UA)
SFO-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
SJC-HND (1x NH)
LAX-NRT (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL + 1x SQ)
LAX-HND (2x NH + 2x AA + 1x DL)
SAN-HND (1x JL)
LAS-HND (1x JL)
DEN-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-HND (1x NH)
DFW-NRT (1x JL)
DFW-HND (2x AA)
MSP-HND (1x DL)
ORD-NRT (1x NH + 1x JL)
ORD-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
DTW-HND (1x DL)
ATL-HND (1x DL)
IAD-NRT (1x NH)
IAD-HND (1x UA)
EWR-NRT (1x UA)
EWR-HND (1x UA)
JFK-NRT (1x NH + 1x JL)
JFK-HND (1x NH + 1x JL)
BOS-HND (1x JL)
HNL-NRT (2x NH + 4x JL + 1x HA)
HNL-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 1.6x HA + 2x DL)
KOA-NRT (1x JL)
KOA-HND (0.4x HA)
GUM-HND (1x NH)

In other permutations where DL doesn't get their full award, just shuffle the above flights around between carriers. For example, maybe HA ends up with 2.6x HNL-HND and DL with 1x HNL-HND. Maybe UA/NH get fewer awards than AA/JL and ORD ends up being split ORD-NRT 1x UA, ORD-HND 2x NH, with AA flying LAS-HND instead of JL, JL adding a HNL frequency instead of LAS, and NH not flying to GUM from HND... There are lots of ways this could shake out, but I do hope DL gets 5 or 6 of their requests when looking at the overall U.S.-TYO picture.

Given these tentative awards, I think the above overall picture of the U.S.-TYO market could still end up being fairly accurate, with a few changes:
DL only gets 1x HNL-HND, with HA picking up an additional HNL-HND as well for a total of 2.6x daily on HA and 1x on DL. I think JL still adds at least one daily HNL-HND as well.
AA only gets 1x DFW-HND award. I'm going to go ahead and say that JL maintains their daily DFW flight from NRT, given that the DFW-TYO O&D isn't huge. I'll also say that AA operates ORD-NRT instead of JL given that AA will probably need to keep NRT open as a station anyway at this point.
UA gets awarded LAX-HND. So maybe NH just stays at 1x daily on LAX-HND and drops their 2nd daily LAX-NRT flight since UA will also continue operating LAX-NRT. That would give the UA/NH JV 2x daily from LAX to each TYO airport. Then again, maybe UA adds their LAX-HND flight and NH moves their 2nd daily LAX-NRT to LAX-HND, giving the JV 5x daily in LAX-TYO (NH is going to have to dump their awards somewhere...).

So here's my updated estimate of the full picture as of next summer:
SEA-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 1x DL)
PDX-HND (1x DL)
SFO-NRT (1x UA)
SFO-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
SJC-HND (1x NH)
LAX-NRT (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL + 1x SQ)
LAX-HND (1x UA + 2x NH + 2x AA + 1x DL)
SAN-HND (1x JL)
LAS-HND (1x JL)
DEN-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-HND (1x NH)
DFW-NRT (1x AA + 1x JL)
DFW-HND (1x AA)
MSP-HND (1x DL)
ORD-NRT (1x NH + 1x AA)
ORD-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
DTW-HND (1x DL)
ATL-HND (1x DL)
IAD-NRT (1x NH)
IAD-HND (1x UA)
EWR-NRT (1x UA)
EWR-HND (1x UA)
JFK-NRT (1x NH + 1x JL)
JFK-HND (1x NH + 1x JL)
BOS-HND (1x JL)
HNL-NRT (2x NH + 4x JL + 1x HA)
HNL-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 2.6x HA + 1x DL)
KOA-NRT (1x JL)
KOA-HND (0.4x HA)
GUM-HND (1x NH)

UA also flies HNL-NRT, and GUM-NRT.

BAINY3 · Fri May 17, 2019 1:10 am

I suppose DL will probably stop SIN/MNL on its own metal and rely on KE connections through ICN. It would remind me of how NW/DL (forget when exactly it happened) pulled out of AMS-BOM and gave it to KL. (Or, decades earlier, did the same thing with their Scandinavian network.)

United857 · Fri May 17, 2019 1:39 am

I also think this means the end of AA serving NRT is quite close. As of now, AA only flies to NRT from DFW (2x daily)/LAX (1x daily)/ORD (3x weekly). With the new LAX/DFW slots, the LAX-NRT frequency will likely be moved to HND (joining AA's existing 1x daily LAX-HND frequency), and 1 of the 2 DFW-NRT frequencies will almost definitely be cancelled after DFW-HND begins.

At that point, NRT will only see from AA 1x daily DFW and 3x weekly ORD. Once JL gets its slot allocation, I would not be surprised if the first route they launch is HND-ORD, coinciding with AA cancelling their paltry 3x weekly NRT-ORD flight. Once that happens, I can see AA wanting to streamline its operations by handing over its remaining NRT-DFW frequency to JL and consolidate their personnel at HND to cut costs.

kavok · Fri May 17, 2019 1:42 am

After reading the DOT document, my interpretation is that UAs LAX-HND was the last slot chosen, and that the DOT respected each carriers ranking preferences. Thus, had UA ranked IAH ahead of LAX, it is very likely that IAH-HND would have been chosen instead. Also, AA ranking LAS below DFW#2 also killed any chance of LAS being selected.

Looking back, I really believe that had AA put ORD, PHL or maybe even LAS as their number 3 choice above DFW#2, they would have been chosen over UA’s LAX slot. I also believe that had HA put in a KOA-HND bid as their number 2 choice, they would have been picked as well for both HNL and KOA.

I think UA and DL can both look back on this process and feel good about how they justified and ranked their picks. Conversely, a potential missed opportunity for AA or HA (unless they truly didn’t want to fly HND from ORD, PHL, KOA, etc.)

119297 · Fri May 17, 2019 1:42 am

C010T3 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
I do not understand why DL deserves more route authorities than UA or AA. AA should have atleast gotten 3 authorities and started service from LAS. I hope AA challenges this ruling.

I'm sorry, but AA completely capitulated. The fact that they did not even try applying for ORD-HND speaks volumes.

AA remains the weakest carrier to Asia. If finalized as is, AA will have even more competition on LAX-HND and we already know how AA responds to competition (ie JFK, ORD), I wouldn't be suprised if AA also drops LAX-NRT. DL is the big winner here.

compensateme · Fri May 17, 2019 1:49 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
It looks like DL got its wish and this is the end of NRT-SIN/MNL!

I wouldn't go that far yet. DL is currently looking at serving them non-stop from SEA.

Got a source for that?

SEA-SIN strikes me as wholly improbable with SQ on the route. IMHO the reconfigged 777/77L and 359s all have too many premium seats to work SEA-MNL.

Probably his same friend who Ed Bernstein personally told that DL had ordered the 787 and 797.

azjubilee · Fri May 17, 2019 1:57 am

kavok wrote:
After reading the DOT document, my interpretation is that UAs LAX-HND was the last slot chosen, and that the DOT respected each carriers ranking preferences. Thus, had UA ranked IAH ahead of LAX, it is very likely that IAH-HND would have been chosen instead. Also, AA ranking LAS below DFW#2 also killed any chance of LAS being selected.

Looking back, I really believe that had AA put ORD, PHL or maybe even LAS as their number 3 choice above DFW#2, they would have been chosen over UA’s LAX slot. I also believe that had HA put in a KOA-HND bid as their number 2 choice, they would have been picked as well for both HNL and KOA.

I think UA and DL can both look back on this process and feel good about how they justified and ranked their picks. Conversely, a potential missed opportunity for AA or HA (unless they truly didn’t want to fly HND from ORD, PHL, KOA, etc.)

HA already flies from KOA 3/wk so unless they wanted to go daily, there would have been no need to apply for KOA. IMO, things turned out just fine for HAL, I believe they asked for 3, hoping for 2 but would be satisfied with 1. Now they'll have 3 daily flights to HND and 1 to NRT. That's hefty, especially when combined with the soon to be approved (hopefully) JV with JAL and the service to the other cities in Japan, KIX, CTS and FUK.

The rest were predictable... especially DL. Clearly they're moving the carcass of the NRT hub to HND and will focus on ICN for beyond Tokyo flying.

aemoreira1981 · Fri May 17, 2019 2:19 am

United needed HND and got it. I would not be surprised if UA moves the B77W that goes to NRT to HND and put a B789 or B77E on the NRT flight. It's telling that only United among US carriers even tries for the NYC to Asia market. The one gap for UA from EWR might be ICN, but DL and KE have a JV out of there and UA feels it can transfer passengers in Tokyo to NH.

As for AA, they should call themselves Dallas and Miami Airlines. Oh they may have a large fleet, but they're going to end up being a South regional airline.

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