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panamair
Posts: 4010
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:04 pm

compensateme wrote:
and KE placed its code on DL’s former JFK-NRT flight, which (potentially) brought some additional perks to its clientele. Entering into a JV really adds practically nothing from a consumer POV- it’s not going to increase traffic.


I don’t believe KE ever put its code on DL’s transpacific flights from NRT, and certainly not on JFK-NRT; took that flight often and never saw the KE code on it (in fact only codeshare I saw on that one was VN)
 
jbs2886
Posts: 1940
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:11 pm

kavok wrote:
PHLCVGAMTK wrote:
Much as I think DL would love to wind down its NRT operations, I think a major factor in this round of allocations will be the two Governments' desire to keep NRT's international hub status a going concern, especially in view of the 2020 Olympics, which will be a very high volume season. Perhaps the delegation of the task of assigning slots to USDOT will attenuate this, but I'm skeptical. I would not be surprised if the deciding factors in slot allocation, are commitments to keep flying to NRT even as the airlines open up HND routes. For DL, that probably means locating an A359 on shortish notice and flying DTW-NRT as well as DTW-HND, and/or an A339 to fly SEA-NRT in addition to SEA-HND. I think DL going the other way and pledging to shut down NRT and end the 5th Freedom flights would be shooting itself in the foot, however elegant the consolidation it would seem to a.net commentators or DL shareholders.

For UA and AA, this gets stranger, as I don't think that moving a 2nd daily flight SFO-NRT to SFO-HND or LAX-NRT to LAX-HND is going to go over well. AA has room to maneuver by taking ORD back to daily and probably opening either PHX or PHL, but I don't know how UA navigates this apart from just pledging a massive amount of capacity to the Japan market in S20, likely to the detriment of NH vis-a-vis the allocation of the other 12 HND slots.


I am curious why the USDOT would place a significant value on continued NRT service. Using LHR/Gatwick as a comparison... I have never read anywhere that the USDOT is remorseful that more US airlines no longer serve Gatwick.


Same, the NRT hub really doesn't serve a public purpose for the US - which is the standard the DOT uses. DL has 2 fifth freedom flights left, the writing is on the wall (as much as I'd personally like to see them remain). So, I see absolutely zero weight to DL having an NRT hub for the DOT - also, could you imagine DL's reaction if they don't get HND flights because the DOT wants them to have a hub at NRT?
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:49 pm

It has become clear that HND will become Japan's primary gateway to the (mainland) U.S. However, as has been the case with other artificially strong long haul gateways in the past - LGW and SNN spring to mind - LCCs will be happy to utilize the infrastructure/available slots at NRT for their own expansion. While much of this will be regional in nature, I would not be surprised to see a Norwegian-esque long haul hub develop at NRT as carriers like DL and UA shift most if not all operations to the more desirable HND.

If nothing else, we might see new fifth freedom services develop. KE offered NRT-LAX in the past..why couldn't a Korean LCC like Jin Air operate this route in the future? I bet rapidly expanding Chinese and Southeast Asian airlines would love the opportunity to try serving the U.S. via NRT. I think the future is bright for both Tokyo airports as the legacy carriers gradually shift their transpacific ops to HND, freeing up slots for other carriers at NRT...
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
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compensateme
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:04 pm

panamair wrote:
compensateme wrote:
and KE placed its code on DL’s former JFK-NRT flight, which (potentially) brought some additional perks to its clientele. Entering into a JV really adds practically nothing from a consumer POV- it’s not going to increase traffic.


I don’t believe KE ever put its code on DL’s transpacific flights from NRT, and certainly not on JFK-NRT; took that flight often and never saw the KE code on it (in fact only codeshare I saw on that one was VN)


A codeshare definitely existed; I’ve redeemed Delta Dollars on multiple KE-operated t-pac flights, which requires them to be purchased under the DL code. The memory isn’t failing me yet. :)
Nobody cares what your next flight is...
 
azjubilee
Posts: 3698
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:11 pm

DL has long been on the record for wanting to consolidate its Tokyo operation at HND. The JV with KE will render the need to connect passengers via Tokyo moot, thereby allowing the consolidation. HND will turn into an important spoke from DL's hubs in the US and be the airport they use to serve Tokyo. I predict southbound interport flying will cease, preferring connections in ICN and/or making an attempt from SEA. As for the slot proceedings, DL will probably make the push to move all USA-NRT flights to HND and cease serving NRT all together.

UA and AA will require service at NRT to support their respective JV's, therefore I don't predict lots of movement of flights between the airports. I do predict however, both AA and UA will bid for slots to further support their JV's with ANA/JL making their moves later to further solidify their plans.

Assuming the JL/HA JV is approved in the first half of 2019, I can see HAL making a play for some slots to leverage the JV and grow their Japan market share. I think HA might be the most creative of the US carriers and surprise people with their plans.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:45 am

If a US airline was to get one of these pairs, could they subcontract the actual flying to another airline, as long as the service was provided?

I am asking a legal question, not suggesting this was a good idea, but if Alaska wanted to feed a flight out of SEA, or JetBlue out of BOS, could they apply for the slots, and then have the flight itself be run by a partner with more appropriate aircraft for the run?
 
WPvsMW
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:13 am

WRT more LCCs and ULCCs at NRT, NRT will need drastically lower its fees to attract more than Jetstar Japan (1/3 owned by JL), Vanilla (100% owned by NH), and Peach (78% owned by NH) to NRT. Since NRT and HND are not government owned, I think the Ministry (MLITT) will have to subsidize NRT to see its "HND premium, NRT leisure and LCC" concept realized. Otherwise, NRT will turn into a cargo hub with Jetstar Japan, Vanilla, and Peach (and their owners) having the pax traffic to themselves.
 
jrkmsp
Posts: 106
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 1:33 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:50 am

NameOmitted wrote:
If a US airline was to get one of these pairs, could they subcontract the actual flying to another airline, as long as the service was provided?

I am asking a legal question, not suggesting this was a good idea, but if Alaska wanted to feed a flight out of SEA, or JetBlue out of BOS, could they apply for the slots, and then have the flight itself be run by a partner with more appropriate aircraft for the run?


No, the operating carrier is awarded the frequency. Sometimes, for example, when Mexico routes needed frequency authorization, if a carrier wanted to switch regional affiliates, they had to file with DOT.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:02 am

jrkmsp wrote:

No, the operating carrier is awarded the frequency. Sometimes, for example, when Mexico routes needed frequency authorization, if a carrier wanted to switch regional affiliates, they had to file with DOT.

Thank you.
 
DL757NYC
Posts: 221
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:07 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:36 pm

United1 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:



Huh? Except for ANA, Asiana, Thai, Singapore, Air China .. except for those small-time players, UA has ZERO partners...

;)


Left out EVA :)

It’s hard to overstate how strong UA is to Asia....DL and AA combined are smaller. Which is why I think people are right that UA will only get two or three pairs of slots at HND.



No I meant to say Delta. Has no partnerships. UA is a far superior carrier in Asia compared to Delta. You can tell just by looking at their large wide body fleet. They had lots of 747’s They have a large number of 777’s
 
DL757NYC
Posts: 221
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:42 pm

alfa164 wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:
Instead of going through all of this. Why doesn’t DL keep NRT as NW had it. They are flying a much more economical aircraft there. NW has/had a huge base at NRT I don’t think people care what airport in Tokyo they fly to. Keep a decent looking airplane. Good service and a great price.


I am one observer who thought Delta moved too rapidly to dismantle the NRT hub; with UA the dominant USA-based carrier to the region, DL is now looking at a strengthened effort by AA. Abandoning NRT so quickly leaves DL with fewer options. Passengers flying to Tokyo do care which airport they fly into, but passengers connecting on their travels probably couldn't give a hoot. Losing their hub has made onward destinations like Hong Kong, Taipei, Bangkok, et al, unsustainable.

DL757NYC wrote:
And let’s face it UA is a beast in Asia and they have ZERO partners


Huh? Except for ANA, Asiana, Thai, Singapore, Air China .. except for those small-time players, UA has ZERO partners...

;)


I was referring to Delta as far as partners. I scratched my head how quickly Delta started dropping Asia routes. Delta dropped BKK maybe they would get more passengers if they had partners and the flight didn’t land at Midnight. Not everyone who goes to Thailand stays at BKK. So then you need to stay overnight in a hotel. If you have to fly to let’s say Krabi
 
727200
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:43 pm

So because AA and DL are unable to compete with UA due to their own arrogance and incompetence, they want the government intervention to 'help' them?
 
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azncsa4qf744er
Posts: 340
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:03 pm

UA should apply for a night time departure SFO-HND. The route work well when it was first launched before moving it to daytime flight. I don't see UA adding LAX as NH have two flights 1xNRT and 1xHND.
 
LondonXtreme
Posts: 94
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:19 pm

azncsa4qf744er wrote:
UA should apply for a night time departure SFO-HND. The route work well when it was first launched before moving it to daytime flight. I don't see UA adding LAX as NH have two flights 1xNRT and 1xHND.

The nonstop roundtrip ticket between SFO-HND/NRT is around $1300-$1800 most time during the year. The price is more expensive compare to other cities like SEA, ORD, JFK, SAN, DFW........way more expensive than LAX-TYO. Some US cities like LAS which doesn't have direct flight to Tokyo also has cheaper fare to Tokyo via major hub.

I always travel between Bay Area and Tokyo. The way I do is to book LAX-TYO roundtrip and SFO-LAX lag separately. Sometimes I try SFO-HKG-TYO-SFO (UA&NH) and the price is incredibly cheap around $700 and can still enjoy a nonstop flight from Tokyo back to SFO.
 
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spinotter
Posts: 285
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:16 pm

727200 wrote:
So because AA and DL are unable to compete with UA due to their own arrogance and incompetence, they want the government intervention to 'help' them?


I wonder if you or anyone else could have done any better on the Pacific than the current leadership at both DL and AA. I do fault DL for not getting into the JV with KE until now - will any of us ever know why that happened? But now DL are going full speed ahead and will have a totally refashioned TPAC operation in the next few years - and HND is a big part of it. AA have always been the weakest in the Pacific and are putting up a good fight, it seems to me. But I would be interested to hear your views on the arrogance and incompetence of these two airlines - in the Pacific and beyond. Could be a good story!
 
klakzky123
Posts: 593
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:05 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:47 pm

spinotter wrote:
727200 wrote:
So because AA and DL are unable to compete with UA due to their own arrogance and incompetence, they want the government intervention to 'help' them?


I wonder if you or anyone else could have done any better on the Pacific than the current leadership at both DL and AA. I do fault DL for not getting into the JV with KE until now - will any of us ever know why that happened? But now DL are going full speed ahead and will have a totally refashioned TPAC operation in the next few years - and HND is a big part of it. AA have always been the weakest in the Pacific and are putting up a good fight, it seems to me. But I would be interested to hear your views on the arrogance and incompetence of these two airlines - in the Pacific and beyond. Could be a good story!


I brought this up earlier but there is no mystery. DL basically bet the farm on bailing out JAL and bringing them into Skyteam along with forming a JV with JAL. DL wanted a TPAC JV with a Japanese airline given DL's natural strength in Japan. Unfortunately, AA managed to match DL's offer and kept JAL in OW and created its own JV. You could argue that in hindsight DL made a huge blunder with the JAL bankruptcy investment offer but at the time it made a ton of sense. Given DL's strength in Tokyo, a Japanese JV was clearly their best option so I wouldn't fault DL for trying to form a JV with JAL

The whole JAL debacle was a large reason why the relationship between DL and KE was poisoned for so long and they've only now reconciled. But to your point, DL and AA have done as well as they could do. AA ended up with a good option for a TPAC JV (considering AA had virtually no presence in the major TPAC markets) while DL has finally managed to get KE on board to provide a comprehensive Asian network. And both DL and AA have made strong strategic moves to lock up Chinese partners.
 
winginit
Posts: 2096
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:04 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
spinotter wrote:
727200 wrote:
So because AA and DL are unable to compete with UA due to their own arrogance and incompetence, they want the government intervention to 'help' them?


I wonder if you or anyone else could have done any better on the Pacific than the current leadership at both DL and AA. I do fault DL for not getting into the JV with KE until now - will any of us ever know why that happened? But now DL are going full speed ahead and will have a totally refashioned TPAC operation in the next few years - and HND is a big part of it. AA have always been the weakest in the Pacific and are putting up a good fight, it seems to me. But I would be interested to hear your views on the arrogance and incompetence of these two airlines - in the Pacific and beyond. Could be a good story!


I brought this up earlier but there is no mystery. DL basically bet the farm on bailing out JAL and bringing them into Skyteam along with forming a JV with JAL. DL wanted a TPAC JV with a Japanese airline given DL's natural strength in Japan. Unfortunately, AA managed to match DL's offer and kept JAL in OW and created its own JV. You could argue that in hindsight DL made a huge blunder with the JAL bankruptcy investment offer but at the time it made a ton of sense. Given DL's strength in Tokyo, a Japanese JV was clearly their best option so I wouldn't fault DL for trying to form a JV with JAL

The whole JAL debacle was a large reason why the relationship between DL and KE was poisoned for so long and they've only now reconciled. But to your point, DL and AA have done as well as they could do. AA ended up with a good option for a TPAC JV (considering AA had virtually no presence in the major TPAC markets) while DL has finally managed to get KE on board to provide a comprehensive Asian network. And both DL and AA have made strong strategic moves to lock up Chinese partners.


Good summary. It's worth pointing out though that DL may have potentially dodged a sizeable bullet in JL choosing to go with AA.

JL emerged from bankruptcy in March of 2011, and it's then that they got their revenue sharing JV up and running with AA. Literally days later, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake hit Japan, and from there the TPAC revenue climate between the US and Japan fell off a cliff to a degree that it arguably still has not recovered from. The financial dynamics of revenue or profit sharing joint ventures are complicated, but I'd guess that AA cuts JL a huge check just about every year to essentially subsidize JL's TPAC operations to makeup for the revenue shortfall.
 
c933103
Posts: 3104
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:04 am

WPvsMW wrote:
WRT more LCCs and ULCCs at NRT, NRT will need drastically lower its fees to attract more than Jetstar Japan (1/3 owned by JL), Vanilla (100% owned by NH), and Peach (78% owned by NH) to NRT. Since NRT and HND are not government owned, I think the Ministry (MLITT) will have to subsidize NRT to see its "HND premium, NRT leisure and LCC" concept realized. Otherwise, NRT will turn into a cargo hub with Jetstar Japan, Vanilla, and Peach (and their owners) having the pax traffic to themselves.

On the other hand those Japanese LCCs also want to have aprt in the new HND slot distribution process
 
c933103
Posts: 3104
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:07 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
It has become clear that HND will become Japan's primary gateway to the (mainland) U.S. However, as has been the case with other artificially strong long haul gateways in the past - LGW and SNN spring to mind - LCCs will be happy to utilize the infrastructure/available slots at NRT for their own expansion. While much of this will be regional in nature, I would not be surprised to see a Norwegian-esque long haul hub develop at NRT as carriers like DL and UA shift most if not all operations to the more desirable HND.

If nothing else, we might see new fifth freedom services develop. KE offered NRT-LAX in the past..why couldn't a Korean LCC like Jin Air operate this route in the future? I bet rapidly expanding Chinese and Southeast Asian airlines would love the opportunity to try serving the U.S. via NRT. I think the future is bright for both Tokyo airports as the legacy carriers gradually shift their transpacific ops to HND, freeing up slots for other carriers at NRT...

One of the problem is a number of bilaterals signed by Japan with other countries specifically excluded fifth freedom operation at capital airport.
 
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wxman11
Posts: 60
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:07 am

theasianguy wrote:
For NH, I can also see them adding their own SFO-HND to complement UA and compete with JL. g.


I can see that happening this year. When?? who knows but this year it could be good for NH in SFO.
 
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wxman11
Posts: 60
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:12 am

LondonXtreme wrote:

I always travel between Bay Area and Tokyo. The way I do is to book LAX-TYO roundtrip and SFO-LAX lag separately. Sometimes I try SFO-HKG-TYO-SFO (UA&NH) and the price is incredibly cheap around $700 and can still enjoy a nonstop flight from Tokyo back to SFO.



Funny, I do the same as you. The NRT/HND to SFO/SJC route is too expensive. Makes you wonder why but I got a pretty good idea to why.
 
chiawei
Posts: 981
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2000 9:07 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:18 am

727200 wrote:
So because AA and DL are unable to compete with UA due to their own arrogance and incompetence, they want the government intervention to 'help' them?


I agree.

UA hub cities has more traffic to Japan than DTW, ATL, and sea.
 
UAL777UK
Posts: 2313
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:18 pm

[quote="centrair"]The Tokyo airport balance by itself is a very interesting. NRT has been slowly becoming the LCC and beach market hub while HND has been pulling Point to Point business (or with domestic connections). JL and NH have extensive HND domestic connections and the timing is pretty good for someone traveling in and out to the country.

Without going off thread, you can see why any airline serving Tokyo wants to be at HND with it being on the doorstep of the city. I wonder if we will see HND expanded into Tokyo Bay at some point as we see this huge change,
 
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spinotter
Posts: 285
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:18 pm

winginit wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:
spinotter wrote:

I wonder if you or anyone else could have done any better on the Pacific than the current leadership at both DL and AA. I do fault DL for not getting into the JV with KE until now - will any of us ever know why that happened? But now DL are going full speed ahead and will have a totally refashioned TPAC operation in the next few years - and HND is a big part of it. AA have always been the weakest in the Pacific and are putting up a good fight, it seems to me. But I would be interested to hear your views on the arrogance and incompetence of these two airlines - in the Pacific and beyond. Could be a good story!


I brought this up earlier but there is no mystery. DL basically bet the farm on bailing out JAL and bringing them into Skyteam along with forming a JV with JAL. DL wanted a TPAC JV with a Japanese airline given DL's natural strength in Japan. Unfortunately, AA managed to match DL's offer and kept JAL in OW and created its own JV. You could argue that in hindsight DL made a huge blunder with the JAL bankruptcy investment offer but at the time it made a ton of sense. Given DL's strength in Tokyo, a Japanese JV was clearly their best option so I wouldn't fault DL for trying to form a JV with JAL

The whole JAL debacle was a large reason why the relationship between DL and KE was poisoned for so long and they've only now reconciled. But to your point, DL and AA have done as well as they could do. AA ended up with a good option for a TPAC JV (considering AA had virtually no presence in the major TPAC markets) while DL has finally managed to get KE on board to provide a comprehensive Asian network. And both DL and AA have made strong strategic moves to lock up Chinese partners.


Good summary. It's worth pointing out though that DL may have potentially dodged a sizeable bullet in JL choosing to go with AA.

JL emerged from bankruptcy in March of 2011, and it's then that they got their revenue sharing JV up and running with AA. Literally days later, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake hit Japan, and from there the TPAC revenue climate between the US and Japan fell off a cliff to a degree that it arguably still has not recovered from. The financial dynamics of revenue or profit sharing joint ventures are complicated, but I'd guess that AA cuts JL a huge check just about every year to essentially subsidize JL's TPAC operations to makeup for the revenue shortfall.


Thanks for the explanation. Your version makes sense. Didn't Northwest back in the day help to set up Japan Airlines after WWII? But then I fault Delta for playing a losing hand. It would have been better to go with DL's natural partner KE from the start. And it was a low move to try to move in on the JL-AA alliance. So Delta is rightly punished by having a less-than-maximally-profitable TPAC network for the moment. Is that an example of justice in the aviation world? You have to have some standards, right?
 
winginit
Posts: 2096
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:23 pm

spinotter wrote:
Thanks for the explanation. Your version makes sense. Didn't Northwest back in the day help to set up Japan Airlines after WWII? But then I fault Delta for playing a losing hand. It would have been better to go with DL's natural partner KE from the start. And it was a low move to try to move in on the JL-AA alliance. So Delta is rightly punished by having a less-than-maximally-profitable TPAC network for the moment. Is that an example of justice in the aviation world? You have to have some standards, right?


I had forgotten that JAL had initially leased crews from NW to start their operation! Good memory. Justice indeed, although for the record it's my guess that none of the US3 are making money over the Pacific even in this day of cheap fuel, and I'll go further to throw out the educated guess that AA is losing well in excess of $100M-$200M/yr over the Pacific whereas Delta probably loses less than $50M/yr while UA is falling just short of breaking even these days.
 
klakzky123
Posts: 593
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:05 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:46 pm

spinotter wrote:
winginit wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:

I brought this up earlier but there is no mystery. DL basically bet the farm on bailing out JAL and bringing them into Skyteam along with forming a JV with JAL. DL wanted a TPAC JV with a Japanese airline given DL's natural strength in Japan. Unfortunately, AA managed to match DL's offer and kept JAL in OW and created its own JV. You could argue that in hindsight DL made a huge blunder with the JAL bankruptcy investment offer but at the time it made a ton of sense. Given DL's strength in Tokyo, a Japanese JV was clearly their best option so I wouldn't fault DL for trying to form a JV with JAL

The whole JAL debacle was a large reason why the relationship between DL and KE was poisoned for so long and they've only now reconciled. But to your point, DL and AA have done as well as they could do. AA ended up with a good option for a TPAC JV (considering AA had virtually no presence in the major TPAC markets) while DL has finally managed to get KE on board to provide a comprehensive Asian network. And both DL and AA have made strong strategic moves to lock up Chinese partners.


Good summary. It's worth pointing out though that DL may have potentially dodged a sizeable bullet in JL choosing to go with AA.

JL emerged from bankruptcy in March of 2011, and it's then that they got their revenue sharing JV up and running with AA. Literally days later, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake hit Japan, and from there the TPAC revenue climate between the US and Japan fell off a cliff to a degree that it arguably still has not recovered from. The financial dynamics of revenue or profit sharing joint ventures are complicated, but I'd guess that AA cuts JL a huge check just about every year to essentially subsidize JL's TPAC operations to makeup for the revenue shortfall.


Thanks for the explanation. Your version makes sense. Didn't Northwest back in the day help to set up Japan Airlines after WWII? But then I fault Delta for playing a losing hand. It would have been better to go with DL's natural partner KE from the start. And it was a low move to try to move in on the JL-AA alliance. So Delta is rightly punished by having a less-than-maximally-profitable TPAC network for the moment. Is that an example of justice in the aviation world? You have to have some standards, right?


You can only say this in hindsight. At the time, forming a JV with JAL made a ton of sense. DL has a strong presence in Tokyo and it made sense to partner with a Japanese airline to form a TPAC network. You have to remember that DL proposed investing in JAL close to 10 years ago. At the time, Tokyo (and Japan as a whole) was a much more important piece of the TPAC market than it is today and DL was fully invested in NRT with its mini hub/fifth freedom operation. There were far fewer direct flights to Asia and more reliance on transfers in Tokyo. And with the infrastructure already set up, it made total sense to try and keep it going by partnering with JAL.

Now one can argue that DL potentially ended up better off by not forming a JV with JAL. Japan is declining in relevance when it comes to TPAC travel and JAL's management in particular isn't exactly the most forward thinking group. The AA/JL partnership did give AA an Asian route network but they ended up with the weaker partner in Japan. But again, this is all evaluating DL's decisions in hindsight. DL made the right move in 2009 by pushing for a partnership with JAL. DL happened to fail but they fortunately recovered the KE relationship and now have a new partnership. But to call them arrogant or a failure is silly. They attempted the best move available to them at the time and failed but they've now recovered. Similarly, AA made the best move available to it at the time (bailing out and partnering with JAL) so good for them as well.

You have to remember that the US and Japan signed an open skies treaty in 2009 and that set off a scramble to lock up partnerships with the two Japanese airlines. So what DL and AA did are totally understandable in that context, especially since UA managed to get its partnership with NH.
 
Airlines0613
Posts: 47
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:06 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:01 pm

winginit wrote:
spinotter wrote:
Thanks for the explanation. Your version makes sense. Didn't Northwest back in the day help to set up Japan Airlines after WWII? But then I fault Delta for playing a losing hand. It would have been better to go with DL's natural partner KE from the start. And it was a low move to try to move in on the JL-AA alliance. So Delta is rightly punished by having a less-than-maximally-profitable TPAC network for the moment. Is that an example of justice in the aviation world? You have to have some standards, right?


I had forgotten that JAL had initially leased crews from NW to start their operation! Good memory. Justice indeed, although for the record it's my guess that none of the US3 are making money over the Pacific even in this day of cheap fuel, and I'll go further to throw out the educated guess that AA is losing well in excess of $100M-$200M/yr over the Pacific whereas Delta probably loses less than $50M/yr while UA is falling just short of breaking even these days.


I would like to see your source which says the US3 are losing in the Pacific. I can see AA losing and maybe DL, but definitely not UA and most likely they are way more profitable than just breaking even. UA had a huge fleet of 777 and 797. If they would order smaller aircraft to increase demand, thus improving yields. Lots of people believe airlines are losing money in many routes, but it seems unlikely based on their healthy profits.
 
winginit
Posts: 2096
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:09 pm

Airlines0613 wrote:
winginit wrote:
spinotter wrote:
Thanks for the explanation. Your version makes sense. Didn't Northwest back in the day help to set up Japan Airlines after WWII? But then I fault Delta for playing a losing hand. It would have been better to go with DL's natural partner KE from the start. And it was a low move to try to move in on the JL-AA alliance. So Delta is rightly punished by having a less-than-maximally-profitable TPAC network for the moment. Is that an example of justice in the aviation world? You have to have some standards, right?


I had forgotten that JAL had initially leased crews from NW to start their operation! Good memory. Justice indeed, although for the record it's my guess that none of the US3 are making money over the Pacific even in this day of cheap fuel, and I'll go further to throw out the educated guess that AA is losing well in excess of $100M-$200M/yr over the Pacific whereas Delta probably loses less than $50M/yr while UA is falling just short of breaking even these days.


I would like to see your source which says the US3 are losing in the Pacific. I can see AA losing and maybe DL, but definitely not UA and most likely they are way more profitable than just breaking even. UA had a huge fleet of 777 and 797. If they would order smaller aircraft to increase demand, thus improving yields. Lots of people believe airlines are losing money in many routes, but it seems unlikely based on their healthy profits.


My source? Per my post it's my guess. I have some TPAC P&L figures in the ole memory bank from past US3 projects that are now a few years dated that I'm not comfortable sharing, but I'm confident in my estimations. UA in particular will be disproportionately impacted by the TPAC yield climate that has fallen through the floor the past couple of years combined with their ultra-long haul flying to places like SIN where there's simply no way profitability has spooled up yet. That's not even mentioning US to AU, where I think they proved all is not well in the kingdom by scaling back SYD flying to less than daily from IAH and LAX.

At the end of the day, as stated, these are guesses. Take them as such and do with them as you please.
 
UA777EWRTLV
Posts: 35
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:12 pm

United submits it’s application: Hopes to serve HND fromEWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, LAX, and GUM.

EWR, LAX, and GUM will supplement NRT flights.
IAD, ORD, and IAH will replace NRT flights.

https://hub.united.com/2019-02-21-unite ... 30575.html
 
kavok
Posts: 495
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:26 pm

In total, 50 new slots are being created at HND airport for 2020. Of the 50, half are going to Japanese (x13) and US (x12) carriers. Information per link below.

It sounds like the US government agreeing to allow some flight paths over US military air space will help with Tokyo airspace congestion issues, and that such a concession was probably a major factor as to why the US-routes are getting such a significant portion of the 50 slots.


https://www.airport-technology.com/news ... -airlines/
Last edited by kavok on Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
FSDan
Posts: 2109
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:42 pm

UA777EWRTLV wrote:
United submits it’s application: Hopes to serve HND fromEWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, LAX, and GUM.

EWR, LAX, and GUM will supplement NRT flights.
IAD, ORD, and IAH will replace NRT flights.

https://hub.united.com/2019-02-21-unite ... 30575.html


Wow, I'm surprised UA went for so many! It will be interesting to see how many AA goes for as well, and how the DOT considers the competitive dynamics of both UA and AA having JV partners that could also serve these routes if needed. For example, if UA doesn't get awarded IAH-HND, NH could move their own IAH flight to HND. Either way, it's hard to imagine UA getting awarded many of these requests given that NH will be getting quite a few of their own frequencies as well.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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adamblang
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:46 pm

United's out with quite a website in support of their application: unitedtohaneda.com
146 319 320 321 332 333 343 717 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 789 AR1 AT4 CNA CR2 CR7 DC9 ER3 ERD ER4 E70 E75 E90
 
jrkmsp
Posts: 106
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 1:33 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:48 pm

FSDan wrote:
UA777EWRTLV wrote:
United submits it’s application: Hopes to serve HND fromEWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, LAX, and GUM.

EWR, LAX, and GUM will supplement NRT flights.
IAD, ORD, and IAH will replace NRT flights.

https://hub.united.com/2019-02-21-unite ... 30575.html


Wow, I'm surprised UA went for so many! It will be interesting to see how many AA goes for as well, and how the DOT considers the competitive dynamics of both UA and AA having JV partners that could also serve these routes if needed. For example, if UA doesn't get awarded IAH-HND, NH could move their own IAH flight to HND. Either way, it's hard to imagine UA getting awarded many of these requests given that NH will be getting quite a few of their own frequencies as well.


AA applied for four:

2x DFW-HND
1x LAX-HND
1x LAS-HND

LAS-HND is certainly interesting.
 
klm617
Posts: 3683
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:53 pm

Which routes did Delta apply for ?
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User avatar
Dieuwer
Posts: 798
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:54 pm

adamblang wrote:
United's out with quite a website in support of their application: unitedtohaneda.com


Did UA steal that foliage pic? I swear I have seen it before somewhere else...
 
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LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 23248
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:02 pm

More details on the UA application.

In order of award priority:
1. EWR/ORD/IAD-HND
2. LAX-HND
3. IAH/GUM-HND

Proposed schedules:

UA131 EWR-HND 1100-1340 777
UA130 HND-EWR 1710-1705 777

UA881 ORD-HND 1245-1555 777
UA882 HND-ORD 1745-1545 777

UA803 IAD-HND 1240-1525 777
UA804 HND-IAD 1610 1550 777

UA39 LAX-HND 1140-1510 78X
UA38 HND-LAX 1730-1200 78X

UA7 IAH-HND 1020-1400 777
UA6 HND-IAH 1635-1445 777

UA828 GUM-HND 0700-0940 777
UA827 HND-GUM 1100-1540 777
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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adamblang
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:05 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
adamblang wrote:
United's out with quite a website in support of their application: unitedtohaneda.com


Did UA steal that foliage pic? I swear I have seen it before somewhere else...

I'm sure it's a stock image that's in use in hundreds of places.
146 319 320 321 332 333 343 717 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 789 AR1 AT4 CNA CR2 CR7 DC9 ER3 ERD ER4 E70 E75 E90
 
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FA9295
Posts: 1727
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:44 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:07 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
FSDan wrote:
UA777EWRTLV wrote:
United submits it’s application: Hopes to serve HND fromEWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, LAX, and GUM.

EWR, LAX, and GUM will supplement NRT flights.
IAD, ORD, and IAH will replace NRT flights.

https://hub.united.com/2019-02-21-unite ... 30575.html


Wow, I'm surprised UA went for so many! It will be interesting to see how many AA goes for as well, and how the DOT considers the competitive dynamics of both UA and AA having JV partners that could also serve these routes if needed. For example, if UA doesn't get awarded IAH-HND, NH could move their own IAH flight to HND. Either way, it's hard to imagine UA getting awarded many of these requests given that NH will be getting quite a few of their own frequencies as well.


AA applied for four:

2x DFW-HND
1x LAX-HND
1x LAS-HND

LAS-HND is certainly interesting.

Is the 1x LAX-HND in addition to the one that they already fly?
 
FSDan
Posts: 2109
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:07 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
FSDan wrote:
UA777EWRTLV wrote:
United submits it’s application: Hopes to serve HND fromEWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, LAX, and GUM.

EWR, LAX, and GUM will supplement NRT flights.
IAD, ORD, and IAH will replace NRT flights.

https://hub.united.com/2019-02-21-unite ... 30575.html


Wow, I'm surprised UA went for so many! It will be interesting to see how many AA goes for as well, and how the DOT considers the competitive dynamics of both UA and AA having JV partners that could also serve these routes if needed. For example, if UA doesn't get awarded IAH-HND, NH could move their own IAH flight to HND. Either way, it's hard to imagine UA getting awarded many of these requests given that NH will be getting quite a few of their own frequencies as well.


AA applied for four:

2x DFW-HND
1x LAX-HND
1x LAS-HND

LAS-HND is certainly interesting.


That is very interesting! LAS-HND really doesn't seem to fit with the rest of AA's network strategy (their only other P2P international route being RDU-LHR), but I suppose since it's a metal-neutral JV it doesn't matter. I suppose they'll let JL cover ORD-HND.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
kavok
Posts: 495
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:08 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
FSDan wrote:
UA777EWRTLV wrote:
United submits it’s application: Hopes to serve HND fromEWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, LAX, and GUM.

EWR, LAX, and GUM will supplement NRT flights.
IAD, ORD, and IAH will replace NRT flights.

https://hub.united.com/2019-02-21-unite ... 30575.html


Wow, I'm surprised UA went for so many! It will be interesting to see how many AA goes for as well, and how the DOT considers the competitive dynamics of both UA and AA having JV partners that could also serve these routes if needed. For example, if UA doesn't get awarded IAH-HND, NH could move their own IAH flight to HND. Either way, it's hard to imagine UA getting awarded many of these requests given that NH will be getting quite a few of their own frequencies as well.


AA applied for four:

2x DFW-HND
1x LAX-HND
1x LAS-HND

LAS-HND is certainly interesting.


The order of preference for AA’s submission was:
1. DFW#1 (772)
2. LAX (788)
3. DFW#2 (772)
4. LAS (788)

Edited to add proposed aircraft type
Last edited by kavok on Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25531
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:10 pm

Clearly with AA's application, they simply intend to discontinue Narita all together. LAXHND#2 will replace LAXNRT and the two DFWHND flights will replace the two DFWNRT flights. LAS is an interesting choice, but just part of the metal neutral venture with JAL.
a.
 
winstonavgeek
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:00 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:13 pm

Source for the AA application?
 
C010T3
Posts: 1932
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:48 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:15 pm

I really admire United's conduct in its applications before the DOT. They really only go for what they see as feasible economically, but also in terms of a fair proceeding, not resorting to going for the most strategic gateways to win the most allocations. For example, if they went for DEN-HND, it would have been a slam dunk, considering how the DOT likes to spread the love, but is behind in terms of priority within its own network.
 
sargester
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 10:29 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:16 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Clearly with AA's application, they simply intend to discontinue Narita all together. LAXHND#2 will replace LAXNRT and the two DFWHND flights will replace the two DFWNRT flights. LAS is an interesting choice, but just part of the metal neutral venture with JAL.


Supplement, they have JAL connections at both NRT and HND...
 
Brandon757
Posts: 71
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:16 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:18 pm

winstonavgeek wrote:
Source for the AA application?

A very fast 5 second Google search found this for me:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-las-hnd-flight/
 
jfk777
Posts: 6741
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:21 pm

kavok wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
FSDan wrote:

Wow, I'm surprised UA went for so many! It will be interesting to see how many AA goes for as well, and how the DOT considers the competitive dynamics of both UA and AA having JV partners that could also serve these routes if needed. For example, if UA doesn't get awarded IAH-HND, NH could move their own IAH flight to HND. Either way, it's hard to imagine UA getting awarded many of these requests given that NH will be getting quite a few of their own frequencies as well.


AA applied for four:

2x DFW-HND
1x LAX-HND
1x LAS-HND

LAS-HND is certainly interesting.


The order of preference for AA’s submission was:
1. DFW#1
2. LAX
3. DFW#2
4. LAS


After 30 years since AA launched DFW to NRT flights with a 747SP all they have to show for flights to Tokyo double DFW & LAX ? What the hell went wrong, Where is the ORD flight or the east coast hub flight(s) from PHL or CLT or JFK ? AA has to do better to Japan and Asia. MIA is dying for a flight to Japan, JAL is not the answer to filling out the route map, they are a great partner but a very cautious one. Time to order more 787-9 or 777-9.
 
User avatar
FA9295
Posts: 1727
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:44 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:31 pm

C010T3 wrote:
I really admire United's conduct in its applications before the DOT. They really only go for what they see as feasible economically, but also in terms of a fair proceeding, not resorting to going for the most strategic gateways to win the most allocations. For example, if they went for DEN-HND, it would have been a slam dunk, considering how the DOT likes to spread the love, but is behind in terms of priority within its own network.

So if UA decides to transfer all of these NRT flights over to HND, the only NRT flight left for them would be DEN?
 
FSDan
Posts: 2109
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:35 pm

FA9295 wrote:
C010T3 wrote:
I really admire United's conduct in its applications before the DOT. They really only go for what they see as feasible economically, but also in terms of a fair proceeding, not resorting to going for the most strategic gateways to win the most allocations. For example, if they went for DEN-HND, it would have been a slam dunk, considering how the DOT likes to spread the love, but is behind in terms of priority within its own network.

So if UA decides to transfer all of these NRT flights over to HND, the only NRT flight left for them would be DEN?


No. They'd still have SFO-NRT, LAX-NRT, and EWR-NRT, plus HNL-NRT and GUM-NRT. Per this application, the LAX, EWR, and GUM applications for HND are in addition to their existing NRT flights.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
C010T3
Posts: 1932
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:48 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:35 pm

FA9295 wrote:
So if UA decides to transfer all of these NRT flights over to HND, the only NRT flight left for them would be DEN?


There would be HNL as well, but would still have to cancel the duplicate flights on top of it.
 
UA777EWRTLV
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:50 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:41 pm

C010T3 wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
So if UA decides to transfer all of these NRT flights over to HND, the only NRT flight left for them would be DEN?


There would be HNL as well, but would still have to cancel the duplicate flights on top of it.


The press release states that EWR/LAX/GUM-HND flights would supplement EWR/LAX/GUM-NRT flights. IAD/IAH/ORD-NRT would shift to HND.

If awarded all slots, United would still operate eight flights a day to NRT:
EWR-NRT
DEN-NRT
LAX-NRT
SFO-NRT
HNL-NRT
GUM-NRT x 3
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