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LAXintl
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US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:02 pm

Following an agreement with Japan, The DOT is instituting a new Haneda route proceeding to allocate up to 12 daytime slot pairs for US-carrier offering scheduled combination services available beginning with the start of the 2020 summer traffic season (29 March 2020).

DOT says its principal objective in this proceeding will be to maximize public benefits. In this regard, it will consider which applicant or applicants will most likely offer and maintain service that best meets the needs of the traveling and shipping public, while also considering the effects of each service proposal on the overall competitive environment.

Procedural Timetable:
Petitions for Reconsideration February 14
Answers to Petitions February 19
Applications February 21
Answers February 28
Replies March 7

Order 2019-2-5

=

Let see how this goes :box:
Last edited by LAXintl on Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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YYZORD
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:05 pm

Any news on Canada-Japan haneda slots? I would love to see NH or JL at YYZ
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:12 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Any news on Canada-Japan haneda slots? I would love to see NH or JL at YYZ

NH has a JV with AC and AC runs the route on their behalf so JL is really your only hope.
 
sagechan
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:14 pm

12 is actually quite good. I figure DL tries to move all remaining NRT flights, AA DFW, Then maybe ORD (HND perhaps worth going back to daily) 2nd LAX and PHL or PHX. UA - ORD, IAD, EWR, LAX, figure HA will ask for some as well.
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mattnrsa
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:14 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Procedural Timetable:
Petitions for Reconsideration February 14
Answers to Petitions February 19
Applications February 21
Answers February 28

Am I reading that right? Airlines need to have their requests in by next week and the answers will be delivered two weeks later? Seems very fast compared to what we see with other route proceedings, though I’m sure the airlines already have their petitions prepared and the Japanese government has a good idea of what will be requested.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:17 pm

mattnrsa wrote:

Am I reading that right? Airlines need to have their requests in by next week and the answers will be delivered two weeks later? Seems very fast compared to what we see with other route proceedings, though I’m sure the airlines already have their petitions prepared and the Japanese government has a good idea of what will be requested.


Applications are due Feb 21st.

The prior dates are for those that want to contest this proceeding.
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jrkmsp
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:18 pm

I think the Feb. 14 deadline is for petitions to reconsider their decision to reject Delta's application for gateway flexibility. Their applications for service are due Feb. 21 — with replies to the applications due a week later.
 
jrkmsp
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:18 pm

Also, here's a link to the full instituting order for those who want to read:

https://airlineinfo.com/ostpdf103/476.pdf
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:19 pm

DL will obviously apply to move all NRT routes to HND. I presume ATL/DTW/SEA is of primary importance. PDX is an interesting one. Corporate contracts play a role otherwise it would be a candidate for ICN switch. HNL is a beach route and could remain at NRT (even as a lone route), no different than KIX/NGO. Rumours about MNL/SIN are countless, from ICN to direct service for Continental U.S.

If DL could get 3 of 12 pairs, i think it would be quietly very happy. 4 of 12 (PDX) even better. Anything less than 3 would be a disaster (ie split hubs).
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:19 pm

Should be fun to watch this play out. ItI could have been 4 each for UA/AA/DL but we'll see if HA wants to play the spoiler here.
C'mon BA, bring your tail to STL. :airplane:
 
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janders
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:31 pm

The other side of this coin means that Japanese carriers will also be allocated 12 frequencies from HND to link to the U.S.

So lets see what markets ANA and JAL decide to move over from NRT.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
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psa1011
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:35 pm

Maybe AS could lease a widebody and be the surprise new entrant instead of letting Delta eat their lunch;)
 
jrkmsp
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:35 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
Should be fun to watch this play out. ItI could have been 4 each for UA/AA/DL but we'll see if HA wants to play the spoiler here.


I'd say 4 or 5 slots for Delta is most likely, which means ATL/DTW/SEA plus one of PDX/HNL/SIN/MNL would also move. By Summer Season 2020, I suspect Delta will have Gatwick'd Narita. Or maybe HNL will hang on, but the others won't stick.

Current NRT service:
HA: HNL 1x
AA: ORD, DFW, LAX all 1x
UA: ORD, DEN, HNL, IAH, LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD all 1x and GUM 3x

So, most likely distribution is 1 to Hawaiian, 3 to American, and then either 4-4 Delta/United or 5-3 Delta/United because of United's JV with ANA.

Will be fascinating to watch. I suspect Delta will seek seven — then the question becomes what would they forego if they only get four or five.
 
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psa1011
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:38 pm

I'm also curious about what kind of timing UA might propose for a second daily SFO-HND that would be competitive.
 
a/c dxer
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:41 pm

12 seems to alot. Wouldn't be surprised if a airline opposes that many.
 
yoeleven
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:51 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:
Should be fun to watch this play out. ItI could have been 4 each for UA/AA/DL but we'll see if HA wants to play the spoiler here.


I'd say 4 or 5 slots for Delta is most likely, which means ATL/DTW/SEA plus one of PDX/HNL/SIN/MNL would also move. By Summer Season 2020, I suspect Delta will have Gatwick'd Narita. Or maybe HNL will hang on, but the others won't stick.

Current NRT service:
HA: HNL 1x
AA: ORD, DFW, LAX all 1x
UA: ORD, DEN, HNL, IAH, LAX, EWR, SFO, IAD all 1x and GUM 3x

So, most likely distribution is 1 to Hawaiian, 3 to American, and then either 4-4 Delta/United or 5-3 Delta/United because of United's JV with ANA.

Will be fascinating to watch. I suspect Delta will seek seven — then the question becomes what would they forego if they only get four or five.


AA is 2x DFW
 
drdisque
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:51 pm

I see UA applying for IAD and EWR since neither have HND service on either UA or NH. The DEN flight is stable right now and I don't see them taking the risk of moving it to HND. ORD already has a metal-neutral HND flight on NH. SFO has multiple JV HND flights, so I don't think it's a high priority either. IAH is a possibility, but probably a low priority.
 
LondonXtreme
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:56 pm

psa1011 wrote:
I'm also curious about what kind of timing UA might propose for a second daily SFO-HND that would be competitive.

The price between SFO and HND/NRT is ridiculous expensive, the nonstop flight is double compare to the flights depart from LAX, and more expensive than SEA, JFK, ORD, etc to Tokyo. If you try to do one stop, the fare is still high, unless you book domestic section separately. Some US cities without nonstop flight to Tokyo such as LAS has comparatively cheaper fare to Tokyo than the fare originate from SFO.

I can say the yield between Tokyo and San Francisco is among the highest compare to other Japan-US route, and it needs a 3rd party to enter the market and drag down the overall price.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:57 pm

For an idea of what might be moved over from NRT, below is summary of planned S19 schedule frequencies per GDS (I used random week of Jun 10th)

Obviously for AA and UA (and even HA now), the JV angle is important part of the decision with consideration of broader network benefits, and connection traffic flow.


AA
DFW - 14
LAX - 7
ORD - 3

DL (excluding beyond intra-Asia service)
ATL - 7
DTW - 7
HNL - 7
PDX - 7
SEA - 7

HA
HNL - 7

UA
DEN - 7
EWR - 7
GUM - 21
HNL - 7
IAD - 7
IAH - 7
LAX - 7
ORD - 7
SFO - 7

JL
BOS - 7
GUM - 7
HNL - 28
JFK - 7
KOA - 7
LAX - 7
ORD - 11
SAN - 7
SEA - 7

NH
HNL - 14
IAD - 7
IAH - 7
JFK - 7
LAX - 14
ORD - 7
SEA - 7
SFO - 7
SJC - 7
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hkcanadaexpat
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:10 pm

LAXintl wrote:
For an idea of what might be moved over from NRT, below is summary of planned S19 schedule frequencies per GDS (I used random week of Jun 10th)
NH
HNL - 14

This one going nowhere as HND is not Whale friendly.
 
TUSAA
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:18 pm

JL also does NRT-DFW daily with a 789. No doubt AA will apply for DFW-HND and drop one of it's two DFW-NRT flights.
 
theasianguy
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:36 pm

For NH, I think it's obvious for them to move the 2nd daytime LAX flight NH 175/176 to HND and keep NH 5/6 flying LAX-NRT for China/SE Asia connections. I can also see them adding their own SFO-HND to complement UA and compete with JL. UA would probably want EWR-HND because that market is highly O&D, and maybe IAD. They likely won't cut anything from NRT given the ANA JV. Most of the traffic today is connecting.
 
MARSHAL1
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:02 am

I think that the American carriers have to hurry up and decide because the Japanese carriers will not publish their routes until after the US carriers' slot have been dished out. They did this last time and it made sense. Things will get less complicated. UA, AA & HA have joint ventures to Japan while one Atlanta based carrier is SOL. Having the Japanese carriers pick last prevents any carrier without a Japanese joint venture from complaining about how unfair the process is.
 
klm617
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:10 am

So is this 6 inbound and 6 outbound to make the 12 slots or is it 12 inbound and outbound slots ?
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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janders
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:14 am

klm617 wrote:
So is this 6 inbound and 6 outbound to make the 12 slots or is it 12 inbound and outbound slots ?


Per OPer :point:

LAXintl wrote:
12 daytime slot pairs
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
A2
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:20 am

LondonXtreme wrote:
psa1011 wrote:
I'm also curious about what kind of timing UA might propose for a second daily SFO-HND that would be competitive.

The price between SFO and HND/NRT is ridiculous expensive, the nonstop flight is double compare to the flights depart from LAX, and more expensive than SEA, JFK, ORD, etc to Tokyo. If you try to do one stop, the fare is still high, unless you book domestic section separately. Some US cities without nonstop flight to Tokyo such as LAS has comparatively cheaper fare to Tokyo than the fare originate from SFO.

I can say the yield between Tokyo and San Francisco is among the highest compare to other Japan-US route, and it needs a 3rd party to enter the market and drag down the overall price.


The 3 party already existed today. It is JAL. For the fares to drop we would need an Asian carrier to add TYO-SFO as a 5th freedom route.
 
kavok
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:31 am

I actually think DL goes for 7:
ATL, DTW, SEA, JFK, BOS, PDX, HNL

I think they can make a very valid case for all 7 markets above. 5 of those 7 have no HND service currently. And JFK provides competition to the nation’s largest market. Not saying they will get all 7, but none of the 7 is that outrageous of an ask.

Put it another way, what other markets can AA/UA/HA put in for that make more sense?

AA: DFW, PHL, ORD?
UA: EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, IAD?
HA: OGG, KOA?

Some of the AA/UA listed airports already have service by JV partners, so the competition argument goes away. Will be interesting to see who gets what.
 
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conaly
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:40 am

Was there nothing in the contract that prevents airlines from shifting all flight from NRT to HND? I remember, that the Tokyo government was quite unhappy when they allocated slots in HND for some foreign airlines in the past and those airlines switches to HND-only. For example Lufthansa has completely left NRT and that was apparently not the intention of the HND slots, as the government wanted to keep more international traffic in Narita.
Airports 2019: CTS, FRA, HND, MUC, NUE, STN
Planned 2019: AMD, ATL, BOS, DEL, DTW, DUS, EWR, JFK, PHL, SIN, TXL, YYZ
 
a/c dxer
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:40 am

What is the current slot allocation for HND day and night?
 
peak86
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:41 am

12 applications is going to be pushing it - unless DL literally tries to move everything over to HND. Doubt AA and UA get that aggressive in trying to shift stuff.

Hawaiian seems to be the interesting one to watch. HA already flies KOA-HND, and not sure if OGG would work with the runway - but if it would, seems to make sense. That or a 2nd daily HNL.
 
LondonXtreme
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:55 am

[/quote]The 3 party already existed today. It is JAL. For the fares to drop we would need an Asian carrier to add TYO-SFO as a 5th freedom route.[/quote]


UA+NH has JV, so no matter which metal use.
For example, only NH and DL serves SEA-NRT(later JL) but the fare is cheaper than SFO-TYO.

I am a frequent traveller between Tokyo and SF and I have always to book a ticket such as SFO-HKG/TPE-TYO-SFO in order the avoid the higher fare, also guarantee a nonstop return journey from TYO back to SFO. I don't want to go backtrack by using a non-Japanese carrier on both outbound and inbound. Or I usually book LAX-TYO roundtrip and fly or drive to LAX from the Bay Area.

Recently, I figure out the fare between SFO and Australia is expensive too. Although SFO has nonstop, the majority of cities in west coast offer cheaper prices to Australia with one stop option in LAX, and much cheaper than SFO-LAX-Australia.
 
jayunited
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:07 am

drdisque wrote:
I see UA applying for IAD and EWR since neither have HND service on either UA or NH. The DEN flight is stable right now and I don't see them taking the risk of moving it to HND. ORD already has a metal-neutral HND flight on NH. SFO has multiple JV HND flights, so I don't think it's a high priority either. IAH is a possibility, but probably a low priority.


I don't see any risk in moving DEN to HND, UA's JV partner NH already serves many of the same destinations out of HND and NRT. HND is much closer to Tokyo, moving the flight carries very little risk but plenty of rewards.
I think DL will get 4 slots for sure they could get 5 but Hawaiian may spoil DL's party. Both AA and UA will get 3 slots if HA only applies for 1.

I can see UA applying for EWR which would move high value business travelers closer to Tokyo. I can also see UA applying for LAX and I think the last slot (if UA is awarded 3 slots) would be a toss up between IAD, IAH and DEN.

AA they will go for ORD, DFW, and LAX. I don't see AA applying to add new service from places like JFK, PHL or CLT.

DL will be awarded ATL, DTW, SEA, HNL and perhaps SLC or PDX if they are able to secure 5 slots.
 
PWMRamper
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:51 am

DL probably gets 4, MAYBE 5.

4 is probably all they need...ATL DTW SEA PDX.

HNL-NRT could survive on its own as a beach market route.

If they got a 5th, it'd be interesting what they decided to do with it. JFK seems like a possible re-entry, but perhaps they'd try and get a slot for SIN/MNL (probably SIN, but then again, I have to wonder how much money they're making on the route with the huge influx of nonstop US-SIN flights).
 
jbs2886
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:54 am

kavok wrote:
I actually think DL goes for 7:
ATL, DTW, SEA, JFK, BOS, PDX, HNL

I think they can make a very valid case for all 7 markets above. 5 of those 7 have no HND service currently. And JFK provides competition to the nation’s largest market. Not saying they will get all 7, but none of the 7 is that outrageous of an ask.

Put it another way, what other markets can AA/UA/HA put in for that make more sense?

AA: DFW, PHL, ORD?
UA: EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, IAD?
HA: OGG, KOA?

Some of the AA/UA listed airports already have service by JV partners, so the competition argument goes away. Will be interesting to see who gets what.


I agree with a lot of things here. Unlike AA and UA, DL is in a "unique" (read: difficult) position in that it has no JV feed in NRT. For example, if DL gets 3 slots (say ATL, DTW, SEA) then it is likely the 5th freedom flights are gone and frankly I think it is possible PDX goes away, too. HNL will probably stay at NRT. On the other hand, AA and DL don't really *need* to have all their flights at HND. Then again, fifth freedom may just officially be dead at NRT for DL because there is no way DOT will grant SIN-HND for DL (very tenuous public interest argument).

I do see DL going for not only a full continental US-Japan move plus applying for JFK and maybe BOS. Korean has a lot of Japanese business that could just go non-stop to JFK on DL.

i think we will see AA (3); UA (3); HA (1-2); and DL (4-5).
 
Sightseer
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:13 am

Twelve slot pairs per side was more than I expected. Given that, I definitely see DL applying for ATL/DTW/SEA/PDX/HNL, but also potentially JFK, since they won't be disadvantaged by serving NRT while competitors fly to HND. AA will likely apply for ORD/DFW/LAX, with CLT and PHL as possible wildcards. Since UA already serves NRT from all its hubs, I wouldn't be surprised by anything they apply for unless it's a non-hub. I imagine HA will apply for more HNL flights, and perhaps OGG.

Overall, I can't see DL being awarded more than five slot-pairs. My bet is AA and UA get 3 each, with DL likely to get at least 4 and HA at least 1, with the last one going to either DL or HA.
 
kavok
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:22 am

jbs2886 wrote:
kavok wrote:
I actually think DL goes for 7:
ATL, DTW, SEA, JFK, BOS, PDX, HNL

I think they can make a very valid case for all 7 markets above. 5 of those 7 have no HND service currently. And JFK provides competition to the nation’s largest market. Not saying they will get all 7, but none of the 7 is that outrageous of an ask.

Put it another way, what other markets can AA/UA/HA put in for that make more sense?

AA: DFW, PHL, ORD?
UA: EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, IAD?
HA: OGG, KOA?

Some of the AA/UA listed airports already have service by JV partners, so the competition argument goes away. Will be interesting to see who gets what.


I agree with a lot of things here. Unlike AA and UA, DL is in a "unique" (read: difficult) position in that it has no JV feed in NRT. For example, if DL gets 3 slots (say ATL, DTW, SEA) then it is likely the 5th freedom flights are gone and frankly I think it is possible PDX goes away, too. HNL will probably stay at NRT. On the other hand, AA and DL don't really *need* to have all their flights at HND. Then again, fifth freedom may just officially be dead at NRT for DL because there is no way DOT will grant SIN-HND for DL (very tenuous public interest argument).

I do see DL going for not only a full continental US-Japan move plus applying for JFK and maybe BOS. Korean has a lot of Japanese business that could just go non-stop to JFK on DL.

i think we will see AA (3); UA (3); HA (1-2); and DL (4-5).



Taking it even further, if the US airlines get 12 slots, than the Japanese carriers are also getting another 12. So in addition to whatever slots AA/UA get, their JV partners are probably also getting another 6 each. That is a LOT of routes. And many of the Japanese additions will double up on some of the logical UA/AA adds.

Unless DL really comes up short, there won’t be much of any US-NRT flying left from anyone, aside from Pacific beach routes.
 
kavok
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:28 am

Sightseer wrote:
Twelve slot pairs per side was more than I expected. Given that, I definitely see DL applying for ATL/DTW/SEA/PDX/HNL, but also potentially JFK, since they won't be disadvantaged by serving NRT while competitors fly to HND. AA will likely apply for ORD/DFW/LAX, with CLT and PHL as possible wildcards. Since UA already serves NRT from all its hubs, I wouldn't be surprised by anything they apply for unless it's a non-hub. I imagine HA will apply for more HNL flights, and perhaps OGG.

Overall, I can't see DL being awarded more than five slot-pairs. My bet is AA and UA get 3 each, with DL likely to get at least 4 and HA at least 1, with the last one going to either DL or HA.


If DL doesn’t get PDX-HND, one of the Japanese carriers would probably add PDX-HND. Given the HND/NRT disadvantage, that would be the end of any PDX-Tokyo flying by DL.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:29 am

janders wrote:
The other side of this coin means that Japanese carriers will also be allocated 12 frequencies from HND to link to the U.S.

So lets see what markets ANA and JAL decide to move over from NRT.

Or look at a full glass of 24 new slots! ;)

30 years late, but this will allow the formation of great US/Japan service.

Lightsaber
You know nothing John Snow.
 
HeeseokKoo
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:43 am

Previous rumors were 4 or 8. 12 is just too many. HND is adding 39000 slots in time for the Olympics, which translates into 49 and HALF of them (12 to US carriers and presumably another 12 for Japanese carriers to the US) is likely used for US-Japan.

AA-JL and UA-NH won't move all/most US-NRT flights into HND because of a strong late-afternoon hub that connects into many Asian destinations. HND-Asia network isn't as strong as ex-NRT, unless Japan allocates more slots for intra-Asia (but not many slots are left since half is gone to the US). This will weaken NRT as a hub.

With this many slots, DL will push for HND-SIN 5th freedom. I can hardly imagine that all 12 will be used for the mainland US, and DL will have a logic that the 5th freedom would let it operate more cities to the mainland US and increase competition. If some of the new slots will go HNL or even GUM, I would say DL's SIN will be more beneficial for most Americans. But I don't know whether there's a restriction regarding 5th freedom or not out of HND.

NH is about to launch A380 flights on NRT-HNL, but with these many new slots, many of NRT-HNL will shift to HND and NH's A380 flights would be in jeopardy. A380 still isn't allowed at HND during the day but I thought the cozy relationship between NH and the government would relax the restriction already.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 798
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:54 am

Will the DOT, in order to promote competition, favor Delta over American and United since Delta does not have a Japanese JV partner?

I mean, all those posting on here that the JV's are anticompetitive would agree with that, right?
 
sagechan
Posts: 242
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 6:14 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:11 am

Seems like DL would be better off moving it's 5th freedom flights to ICN once they lose the excuse of HND being restricted.
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jbs2886
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:13 am

HeeseokKoo wrote:
With this many slots, DL will push for HND-SIN 5th freedom. I can hardly imagine that all 12 will be used for the mainland US, and DL will have a logic that the 5th freedom would let it operate more cities to the mainland US and increase competition. If some of the new slots will go HNL or even GUM, I would say DL's SIN will be more beneficial for most Americans. But I don't know whether there's a restriction regarding 5th freedom or not out of HND.


12 really isn't that many, NRT flights will mostly move over and there will still be flights left at NRT. I just can't see SIN-HND being granted by the DOT.
 
777Mech
Posts: 675
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:26 am

Sightseer wrote:
Twelve slot pairs per side was more than I expected. Given that, I definitely see DL applying for ATL/DTW/SEA/PDX/HNL, but also potentially JFK, since they won't be disadvantaged by serving NRT while competitors fly to HND. AA will likely apply for ORD/DFW/LAX, with CLT and PHL as possible wildcards. Since UA already serves NRT from all its hubs, I wouldn't be surprised by anything they apply for unless it's a non-hub. I imagine HA will apply for more HNL flights, and perhaps OGG.

Overall, I can't see DL being awarded more than five slot-pairs. My bet is AA and UA get 3 each, with DL likely to get at least 4 and HA at least 1, with the last one going to either DL or HA.


I don't think DL will bother with HNL, as HNL-NRT does pretty well on it's own. I believe their main focus will be moving mainland flights over.

But of course they will apply for all of them though.
 
LondonXtreme
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Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:24 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:33 am

If DL is granted 4 HND slots with moving ATL, DTW and SEA for sure. I guess one of the remaining(PDX or HNL) from NRT will end.

With JV(AA-JL, UA-NH), The majority Asian cities are well covered from HND, the only thing left in NRT are Chinese cities. Nowadays, both Japanese carriers don't need Chinese traffic to feed their US flights. If they do, they will double or triple the frequencies like what the competitors do, such as KE, OZ, CX, BR, CI.
 
kavok
Posts: 508
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:34 am

sagechan wrote:
Seems like DL would be better off moving it's 5th freedom flights to ICN once they lose the excuse of HND being restricted.


As I understand it, the fifth freedom flights are the result of a negotiation between the US and Japan, going back to WWII. As such, I assume DL can’t move them from Japan.

5th Freedoms by DL from ICN would require permission from the Korean government, which has no reason to grant it. I can’t image KE would be too happy with DL 5th Freedoms from ICN either.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 138
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:35 am

Yes but AC only flies to HND year round from YYZ. We really could use a direct NRT route and I feel that either NH or JL can sustain it.

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
Any news on Canada-Japan haneda slots? I would love to see NH or JL at YYZ

NH has a JV with AC and AC runs the route on their behalf so JL is really your only hope.
 
sagechan
Posts: 242
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 6:14 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:37 am

kavok wrote:
sagechan wrote:
Seems like DL would be better off moving it's 5th freedom flights to ICN once they lose the excuse of HND being restricted.


As I understand it, the fifth freedom flights are the result of a negotiation between the US and Japan, going back to WWII. As such, I assume DL can’t move them from Japan.

5th Freedoms by DL from ICN would require permission from the Korean government, which has no reason to grant it. I can’t image KE would be too happy with DL 5th Freedoms from ICN either.

I could be wrong but doesn't open skies agreements (required for US JVs) have to allow 5th freedom? If so, then outside of airport slots there shouldn't be any reason DL couldn't fly from ICN. If not, then yeah I'd agree.
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LAXintl
Topic Author
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:42 am

jrkmsp wrote:
I'd say 4 or 5 slots for Delta is most likely, which means ATL/DTW/SEA plus one of PDX/HNL/SIN/MNL would also move.

PWMRamper wrote:
If they got a 5th, it'd be interesting what they decided to do with it. JFK seems like a possible re-entry, but perhaps they'd try and get a slot for SIN/MNL (probably SIN, but then again, I have to wonder how much money they're making on the route with the huge influx of nonstop US-SIN flights).

HeeseokKoo wrote:
With this many slots, DL will push for HND-SIN 5th freedom. I can hardly imagine that all 12 will be used for the mainland US, and DL will have a logic that the 5th freedom would let it operate more cities to the mainland US and increase competition. If some of the new slots will go HNL or even GUM, I would say DL's SIN will be more beneficial for most Americans. But I don't know whether there's a restriction regarding 5th freedom or not out of HND.
.


The slots cannot be used for 3rd nation markets - solely for US-Japan flights.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2727
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:20 am

like it or not, DL metal to SIN/MNL will vanish. With most if not all DL flights flying into HND, that will succinctly end DL service to SE Asia. Only way will be via AF/KLM going one eastbound and Korean Air going TPAC. That will leave UA as the only US based airline to serve Singapore.
 
yonikasz
Posts: 104
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2013 6:47 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:24 am

jrkmsp wrote:
Also, here's a link to the full instituting order for those who want to read:

https://airlineinfo.com/ostpdf103/476.pdf


Do you know where to get those regulatory documents on the US governments website? I don’t wanna pay for something that should be free.
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