winginit
Posts: 2072
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:32 pm

zkncj wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
?

winginit wrote:

Without feed from either AS or DL that sounds like a tall order. Is there any sort of robust local demand to speak of?

Nothing to stop NZ doing a codeshare with AS at SEA. They have gone outside of traditional alliance structures to get feed - e.g. AR at EZE.

Cheers,

C.


Adding to that NZ already uses AS for an domestic feeder, eg they already will sell you an ticket on AS (they aren’t just locked into UA.


They are partnered with CX, TN, VS etc who all aren’t *A, and in the past VA and JL.

NZ does have the feed at the Australian end that would help the flight.

Anything is possible...


I don't disagree that they could strike a deal with AS for feed opportunities, but does that in any way change the demand side of the equation? I'm hard pressed to think of destinations over SEA that can't just as easily be covered over LAX/SFO.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 30
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:57 pm

Is YVR-MEL going daily finally?

ACCS300 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?


SEA may have double the pax of YVR but they have a fraction of the international traffic of YVR. SYD, MEL and BNE nonstops have much to do with Whistler. Whistler is the most Australian city outside Australia, it's a massive draw, much of the semi-permanent population in Whistler is from Australia and it's also a massive winter destination for them. The "whistler effect' has also spilled over to much of Metro Vancouver, go to any restaurant or bar in Vancouver and much of the staff is from Australia, same goes for any of the local ski hills around Vancouver. Canada is a Commonwealth Nation and unlike the USA benefits from the 'working holiday' traffic where upon citizens of Australia and work in Canada for up to one year until they're 30. All of these factors fill planes, these flights are a huge success with high LF, AC is already increasing their MEL - YVR frequencies. SEA has none of these factors.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 30
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:08 pm

Just like YVR, SEA would be a better airport to connect in vs SFO or LAX. YVR for example is the fastest way to get from Australia to New York City. SEA being near YVR would have the same effect but they serve destinations like PHL, MCO, FLL, AUS, etc. that YVR doesn't serve so it'll have a greater effect.

winginit wrote:
zkncj wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
?


Nothing to stop NZ doing a codeshare with AS at SEA. They have gone outside of traditional alliance structures to get feed - e.g. AR at EZE.

Cheers,

C.


Adding to that NZ already uses AS for an domestic feeder, eg they already will sell you an ticket on AS (they aren’t just locked into UA.


They are partnered with CX, TN, VS etc who all aren’t *A, and in the past VA and JL.

NZ does have the feed at the Australian end that would help the flight.

Anything is possible...


I don't disagree that they could strike a deal with AS for feed opportunities, but does that in any way change the demand side of the equation? I'm hard pressed to think of destinations over SEA that can't just as easily be covered over LAX/SFO.
 
winginit
Posts: 2072
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:18 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Just like YVR, SEA would be a better airport to connect in vs SFO or LAX. YVR for example is the fastest way to get from Australia to New York City. SEA being near YVR would have the same effect but they serve destinations like PHL, MCO, FLL, AUS, etc. that YVR doesn't serve so it'll have a greater effect.


I'm sorry but the NYC argument over SEA just doesn't hold water. Sure, you might save a little bit of time but connecting over LAX/SFO NYC originating/terminating passengers have a swath of lie-flat premium capacity to connect to whereas connecting on say AS over SEA would result in five hours on a 737. Apples to Oranges for the premium traffic that would sustain the long-haul route.
 
YYZORD
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Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:27 pm

Now that I think of it, your kinda right. in YVR, AC uses the 787 for YVR-EWR due to that premium traffic. That probably wouldn't work in SEA.

winginit wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
Just like YVR, SEA would be a better airport to connect in vs SFO or LAX. YVR for example is the fastest way to get from Australia to New York City. SEA being near YVR would have the same effect but they serve destinations like PHL, MCO, FLL, AUS, etc. that YVR doesn't serve so it'll have a greater effect.


I'm sorry but the NYC argument over SEA just doesn't hold water. Sure, you might save a little bit of time but connecting over LAX/SFO NYC originating/terminating passengers have a swath of lie-flat premium capacity to connect to whereas connecting on say AS over SEA would result in five hours on a 737. Apples to Oranges for the premium traffic that would sustain the long-haul route.
 
babastud
Posts: 202
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:38 am

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:33 pm

Not going to happen anytime soon! The demand is really not there for a daily from Sea-Syd. Moreover there is already a ton of new capacity added in the few years with average fares really plummeting. Delta does not have the right planes for it and Sea is not a good connecting hub to the rest of the USA from Australia, just Canada and AC has it locked up from Vancouver. Qantas has the right planes but is better off utilizing SFO, LAX, DFW, etc as connecting places
 
MKIAZ
Posts: 219
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 5:24 am

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:22 pm

B1168 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Northwest was studying SEA-SYD with the 787-8 prior to the merger.

DL doesn't have an ideal aircraft for SYD. The 777ER is an awful lot of seats for a new market. The A350 right now is questionable on even doing LAX-SYD and again it's too large. The smaller aircraft in the fleet don't have the range.


What?? Why is the A350 questionable on LAX-SYD? Are you implying the A350 might be to large for DL's needs on this route?
If so I find that hard to believe even though LAX-SYD is extremely competitive, it is DL's only flight to Australia on their metal which means the route not only attracts O&D but DL's entire domestic network feeds this one route. How can the A350 which is more fuel efficient and has a lower operating cost than the 77E be questionable for this route?

If you are correct then that begs the question as to why is DL even flying this route? Also If you are correct then there is no way DL's launches SEA-SYD.


I suspect that DL’s current A359s have lower MTOW, thus less capacity than 77E. Routes this long are extremely demanding on takeoff weight—any lack of fuel, and you divert to NAD or BNE. If DL value cargo this much, their only option goes to 77E.


But DL uses 77L's for SYD.
 
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ACCS300
Posts: 361
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:05 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:26 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Is YVR-MEL going daily finally?

ACCS300 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.



SEA may have double the pax of YVR but they have a fraction of the international traffic of YVR. SYD, MEL and BNE nonstops have much to do with Whistler. Whistler is the most Australian city outside Australia, it's a massive draw, much of the semi-permanent population in Whistler is from Australia and it's also a massive winter destination for them. The "whistler effect' has also spilled over to much of Metro Vancouver, go to any restaurant or bar in Vancouver and much of the staff is from Australia, same goes for any of the local ski hills around Vancouver. Canada is a Commonwealth Nation and unlike the USA benefits from the 'working holiday' traffic where upon citizens of Australia and work in Canada for up to one year until they're 30. All of these factors fill planes, these flights are a huge success with high LF, AC is already increasing their MEL - YVR frequencies. SEA has none of these factors.


I believer AC is adding one additional flight / week, YVR-MEL.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3063
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:04 pm

winginit wrote:
I don't disagree that they could strike a deal with AS for feed opportunities, but does that in any way change the demand side of the equation? I'm hard pressed to think of destinations over SEA that can't just as easily be covered over LAX/SFO.


It's the same with saying do we really need flights from YVR,ORD,IAH,DFW to NZ/AU? LAX/SFO could cover it all technically.

The 777/787 has allowed routes to be more split up e.g. a couple times weekly to start with, then growing beyond it.
 
winginit
Posts: 2072
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:17 pm

zkncj wrote:
It's the same with saying do we really need flights from YVR,ORD,IAH,DFW to NZ/AU? LAX/SFO could cover it all technically.


Technically no LAX and SFO actually couldn't cover it all unless you dramatically bolstered the domestic networks (by capacity and breadth) tied to LAX and SFO, which neither airport can handle on account of facility constraints. The number of connecting one-stop dots on a map and that DFW, ORD, and IAH unlock are notable and at present significantly incremental over what just SFO and LAX offer.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1443
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:34 am

I am discussing SEA-SYD. 77L is a fine plane for LAX-SYD. Not for SEA.

MKIAZ wrote:
B1168 wrote:
jayunited wrote:

What?? Why is the A350 questionable on LAX-SYD? Are you implying the A350 might be to large for DL's needs on this route?
If so I find that hard to believe even though LAX-SYD is extremely competitive, it is DL's only flight to Australia on their metal which means the route not only attracts O&D but DL's entire domestic network feeds this one route. How can the A350 which is more fuel efficient and has a lower operating cost than the 77E be questionable for this route?

If you are correct then that begs the question as to why is DL even flying this route? Also If you are correct then there is no way DL's launches SEA-SYD.


I suspect that DL’s current A359s have lower MTOW, thus less capacity than 77E. Routes this long are extremely demanding on takeoff weight—any lack of fuel, and you divert to NAD or BNE. If DL value cargo this much, their only option goes to 77E.


But DL uses 77L's for SYD.
 
B1168
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:26 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:35 am

n7371f wrote:
I am discussing SEA-SYD. 77L is a fine plane for LAX-SYD. Not for SEA.

MKIAZ wrote:
B1168 wrote:

I suspect that DL’s current A359s have lower MTOW, thus less capacity than 77E. Routes this long are extremely demanding on takeoff weight—any lack of fuel, and you divert to NAD or BNE. If DL value cargo this much, their only option goes to 77E.


But DL uses 77L's for SYD.


Yep, the distance is ok, but not so much so for the cabin.
Again, had DL kept their 788s, they could fly it NOW.
 
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compensateme
Posts: 2889
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:09 pm

According to a.net, if DL had taken delivery of the 787, there’d be hundreds of additional routes they could add (or retain). Maybe we should start a new thread drafting DL a letter, because its professionals seemed to have dropped the ball.
Nobody cares what your next flight is...
 
n7371f
Posts: 1443
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:33 am

Be smarmy all you want. The lack of a 787 in the fleet and the route ability is a legit question. That's not to say DL doesn't know what it's doing.

compensateme wrote:
According to a.net, if DL had taken delivery of the 787, there’d be hundreds of additional routes they could add (or retain). Maybe we should start a new thread drafting DL a letter, because its professionals seemed to have dropped the ball.
 
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KICT
Posts: 656
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:10 am

compensateme wrote:
According to a.net, if DL had taken delivery of the 787, there’d be hundreds of additional routes they could add (or retain). Maybe we should start a new thread drafting DL a letter, because its professionals seemed to have dropped the ball.

It's a good thing they did cancel the order, because NWA selected the Trent 1000 as their engine type...
The "excuse" at the time was that they didn't want to be guinea pigs for "experimental aircraft"; well, so much for that given the introduction of the A350 and A220.
I still think we'll see the 787 in the Delta fleet.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 283
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:21 am

I could see DL interested in SEA to BNE or SEA to SYD (they'd have good feed on both ends in either case, and they'd have a monopoly route). But it would be mostly connecting traffic (so low yield), and would require an A350 that might be more profitably deployed on other routes (in theory an A330neo could do Brisbane but we all know that there's a gap between "in theory possible" and what the real world performance is like). Plus their local partner, Virgin Australia, already has "too much plane" problems with their 777-300ERs and can't run a daily service out of MEL or BNE.

If VOz and Delta both had smaller long range jets (788, 789, A359) I could see it happening, but at present? Extremely unlikely.
 
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FA9295
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:44 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:42 pm

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... arch-2019/

Alaska Airlines expands Qantas codeshare to Australia from March 2019

This could be something indicative of Qantas possibly launching SEA-Australia nonstop. If the codeshare network continues to strengthen overtime, then maybe it could happen! ;)
Next:
Delta: PDX-LAX-MSY
Delta: MSY-LAX-PDX
 
winginit
Posts: 2072
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:49 pm

FA9295 wrote:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/282874/alaska-airlines-expands-qantas-codeshare-to-australia-from-march-2019/

Alaska Airlines expands Qantas codeshare to Australia from March 2019

This could be something indicative of Qantas possibly launching SEA-Australia nonstop. If the codeshare network continues to strengthen overtime, then maybe it could happen! ;)


I think I'm actually interpreting the opposite. QF has done the analysis, deemed SEA-SYD nonstop nonviable for reasons that have been discussed in this thread among others, and are thus now allowing AS to place their code on QF nonstops to fuel SEA traffic over LAX/SFO.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 285
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:41 pm

KICT wrote:
compensateme wrote:
According to a.net, if DL had taken delivery of the 787, there’d be hundreds of additional routes they could add (or retain). Maybe we should start a new thread drafting DL a letter, because its professionals seemed to have dropped the ball.

It's a good thing they did cancel the order, because NWA selected the Trent 1000 as their engine type...
The "excuse" at the time was that they didn't want to be guinea pigs for "experimental aircraft"; well, so much for that given the introduction of the A350 and A220.
I still think we'll see the 787 in the Delta fleet.


You can't call either the A350 or the A220 experimental aircraft - certainly not in the sense that the 787 was an experiemtnal aircraft when it finally took off.

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