LondonXtreme
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SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:22 am

Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?
 
YYZORD
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:34 am

If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?
 
LondonXtreme
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:39 am

YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?

AC flies daily to SYD, MEL and BNE from YVR, even more that what SFO has.
 
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qf789
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:43 am

LondonXtreme wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?

AC flies daily to SYD, MEL and BNE from YVR, even more that what SFO has.


SYD and BNE are daily, MEL is 4 weekly
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YYZORD
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:51 am

MEL should be daily soon hopefully as BNE and SYD is daily and MEL is a bigger city than BNE. Going back to SEA, just like how it's fastest to go to NYC from Australia through YVR, SEA could have the same potential. I'm sure someone from Australia would much prefer YVR & SEA instead of SFO & LAX for connection.

qf789 wrote:
LondonXtreme wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.


AC flies daily to SYD, MEL and BNE from YVR, even more that what SFO has.


SYD and BNE are daily, MEL is 4 weekly
 
aviationaware
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:55 am

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?


I think QF is very unlikely. If anyone then perhaps Delta.
Last edited by aviationaware on Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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RWA380
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:56 am

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?


Some believe it will be DL to pull that trigger vs QF. But unless I am mistaken SEA has been recognized by QF as a potential expansion city.
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LAX772LR
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:59 am

YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR.

Almost none of those factors has anything to do with the other.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LAXLHR
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:00 am

LondonXtreme wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?

AC flies daily to SYD, MEL and BNE from YVR, even more that what SFO has.


Hmm yes, but AC represents Canadian traffic whereas SEA would just add to numerous US gateways to Australia. Canada is also a Commonwealth nation so has closer ties to Australia. Very easy for some to forget that YVR and SEA are two different countries even when next door to each other.

Not saying that SEA could not handle a direct Oz flight, Im sure if QF can make it worth their while at some point they will :-)
BA JM EA GK PA VS AA SN HP CO W7 WN NW DL QQ UA AC US LH LX OS JL QF QR PG MH CX U2 EK 9W UK TP VY VN PC LO OK OZ UL SQ LA

707 727 L10 732-NG 741 742 743 744 752 753 762 763 772 773 787 DC8 DC9 DC10 M80 M11 100 AB3 310 318 319 320 321 332 333 342 343 380
 
sonicruiser
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:02 am

Two observations:

1. Seattle is not as close to Vancouver as people think it is.
2. I don't see any obvious reason QF wouldn't do SEA-SYD. I do think NZ will beat them to the punch first. No way on earth Delta will EVER do this though. They're way too timid with Int'l routes to even remotely consider this especially after retreating from HKG.
 
YYZORD
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:05 am

Not all traffic from YVR is Canadian pax, many are from the US. They stated that it's the fastest connection point from Australia to New York City. Currently many in for example SEA and PDX along with PHX and LAS connect through YVR to get to Asia & Australia. That's like saying no one from north america would connect in LHR to get to AMS or CDG.

LAXLHR wrote:
LondonXtreme wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.


AC flies daily to SYD, MEL and BNE from YVR, even more that what SFO has.


Hmm yes, but AC represents Canadian traffic whereas SEA would just add to numerous US gateways to Australia. Canada is also a Commonwealth nation so has closer ties to Australia. Very easy for some to forget that YVR and SEA are two different countries even when next door to each other.

Not saying that SEA could not handle a direct Oz flight, Im sure if QF can make it worth their while at some point they will :-)
 
winginit
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:06 am

sonicruiser wrote:
I don't see any obvious reason QF wouldn't do SEA-SYD.


Do you see an obvious reason that they would given US-AU yields are currently depressed as low as they've been in a decade?

sonicruiser wrote:
I do think NZ will beat them to the punch first.


Without feed from either AS or DL that sounds like a tall order. Is there any sort of robust local demand to speak of?

sonicruiser wrote:
No way on earth Delta will EVER do this though.


Agreed. Even LAXSYD right now is an absolute bloodbath and I'd be willing to bet DL, AA, and UA are all bleeding to the tune of -$20M+ per year in losses with RT economy fares now below $600USD.
 
717atOGG
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:12 am

Last year QF's CEO said that they'd do ORD-BNE if their JV with AA was approved, and if not, they'd add a daily 787-9 SEA-BNE flight instead. No more comments have been made on it recently AFAIK, but we know that it's on their radar. I think either BNE or SYD could do well with the AS partnership, and a potential Australia flight would likely depart at night so gate space at SEA wouldn't be too much of an issue. NZ or DL don't seem likely to me; NZ because of no feed on the SEA end, and DL because of only a limited number of a/c that are capable of doing the route.

Link to the QF CEO source: https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-plans-n ... or-seattle
Last edited by 717atOGG on Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Long live the Boeing 757!
 
smi0006
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:15 am

winginit wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
I don't see any obvious reason QF wouldn't do SEA-SYD.


Do you see an obvious reason that they would given US-AU yields are currently depressed as low as they've been in a decade?

sonicruiser wrote:
I do think NZ will beat them to the punch first.


Without feed from either AS or DL that sounds like a tall order. Is there any sort of robust local demand to speak of?

sonicruiser wrote:
No way on earth Delta will EVER do this though.


Agreed. Even LAXSYD right now is an absolute bloodbath and I'd be willing to bet DL, AA, and UA are all bleeding to the tune of -$20M+ per year in losses with RT economy fares now below $600USD.


I agree, I have never understood what the interest in Australia SEA is, what generates the market? What’s the economic, tourist and social links? As an Aussie I have heard of very very few people going there.

I’m not sure DL is that interested in the AU market, and AS isn’t a big enough feed for QF. I’d imagine with the QF AA JV we’ll see ORD before SEA.

And I know I’m in the minority- I just don’t see it. And have never heard of the huge interest in AU SEA beyond anet, I think it’s an anet rumour that’s grown legs.
 
BrianWilkes
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:18 am

NO!
 
wedgetail737
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:22 am

BrianWilkes wrote:
NO!


Now that you said "NO", they're going to do it. LOL!
 
planemanofnz
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:26 am

With QF, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the issue that their 789 hub is at BNE, and that any SEA - Australia service would likely be via SYD?

winginit wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
I do think NZ will beat them to the punch first.


Without feed from either AS or DL that sounds like a tall order. Is there any sort of robust local demand to speak of?

Nothing to stop NZ doing a codeshare with AS at SEA. They have gone outside of traditional alliance structures to get feed - e.g. AR at EZE.

Cheers,

C.
 
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FA9295
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:31 am

BrianWilkes wrote:
NO!

YES! :stirthepot:
 
aryonoco
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:31 am

smi0006 wrote:
I agree, I have never understood what the interest in Australia SEA is, what generates the market?


Having two of the world's biggest four companies headquartered there (Microsoft and Amazon) both of which have significant and growing presence in Australia. Corporate traffic is generally willing to pay a premium for direct flights, and takes care of the front of the plane. Amazon's growing shipments to Australia will also be generating a fair bit of cargo.

My anecdotal experience: three of my friends (all Australian) have joined Amazon and moved to Seattle in the last two years. Amazon has contracts with recruitment agencies who are actively headhunting Aussie engineers.
 
FlyBitcoin
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:35 am

sonicruiser wrote:
Two observations:

1. Seattle is not as close to Vancouver as people think it is.
2. I don't see any obvious reason QF wouldn't do SEA-SYD. I do think NZ will beat them to the punch first. No way on earth Delta will EVER do this though. They're way too timid with Int'l routes to even remotely consider this especially after retreating from HKG.


Yeah, DL would rather have VA serve that route.
 
QF742
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:41 am

planemanofnz wrote:
With QF, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the issue that their 789 hub is at BNE, and that any SEA - Australia service would likely be via SYD?

winginit wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
I do think NZ will beat them to the punch first.


Without feed from either AS or DL that sounds like a tall order. Is there any sort of robust local demand to speak of?

Nothing to stop NZ doing a codeshare with AS at SEA. They have gone outside of traditional alliance structures to get feed - e.g. AR at EZE.

Cheers,

C.


At the moment, QF have their 789s based in MEL and BNE. However, they have flights ex-SYD on 789s (HKG). The next batch of 789s will most definitely be based in SYD. The main reason, in my view, that BNE has been talked about for expansion to the US is due to its proximity - ie ORD-BNE is feasible on a 789 but the same cannot be said for SYD-ORD. If QF did launch SEA my guess is that it would be ex SYD.
 
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seahawks7757
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:43 am

Don’t forget Delta’s partnership with Virgin Australia. A few years ago when I was covering an event for them they said Seattle is a possibility in the future. Wouldn’t say when. Speaking of them we should see a future wide body order coming for them this year if I recall correctly.
 
aryonoco
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:55 am

FlyBitcoin wrote:

Yeah, DL would rather have VA serve that route.


VA doesn't have the planes to fly any new routes. Doesn't have the capital to buy new planes. Can't borrow any more money from its sugar daddy shareholders.
 
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compensateme
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:15 am

With fares to Australia depressed at the moment (e.g. you can fly from most major cities to SYD for roughly $500 this spring) I doubt DL is interested in adding capacity. Of course, the a.net narrative will be that DL refuses to add capacity until the FIS is expanded, or that DL lacks the “right” (re: 787) equipment - take your pick ;).
Nobody cares what your next flight is...
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:25 am

QF742 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
With QF, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the issue that their 789 hub is at BNE, and that any SEA - Australia service would likely be via SYD?

winginit wrote:

Without feed from either AS or DL that sounds like a tall order. Is there any sort of robust local demand to speak of?

Nothing to stop NZ doing a codeshare with AS at SEA. They have gone outside of traditional alliance structures to get feed - e.g. AR at EZE.

Cheers,

C.


At the moment, QF have their 789s based in MEL and BNE. However, they have flights ex-SYD on 789s (HKG). The next batch of 789s will most definitely be based in SYD. The main reason, in my view, that BNE has been talked about for expansion to the US is due to its proximity - ie ORD-BNE is feasible on a 789 but the same cannot be said for SYD-ORD. If QF did launch SEA my guess is that it would be ex SYD.


Would be a similar situation when QF launched DFW on 744s.

They didn’t have the legs to do a SYD-DFW nonstop in both directions. The route was SYD-DFW-BNE-SYD. Once the A380s arrived the routing was changed to SYD-DFW-SYD only.

Agree though if SEA is launched it would be from SYD.
NSW based avgeek
 
winginit
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:34 am

aryonoco wrote:
Having two of the world's biggest four companies headquartered there (Microsoft and Amazon) both of which have significant and growing presence in Australia. Corporate traffic is generally willing to pay a premium for direct flights, and takes care of the front of the plane. Amazon's growing shipments to Australia will also be generating a fair bit of cargo.


Amazon has a strictly coach corporate booking policy for virtually everyone even on international long-haul; and while Microsoft does allow for more premium, it's still relatively strict. Even the two of them combined will do little to take care of the front of a SEA-SYD nonstop.

compensateme wrote:
With fares to Australia depressed at the moment (e.g. you can fly from most major cities to SYD for roughly $500 this spring) I doubt DL is interested in adding capacity.


:checkmark:

It can't be emphasized enough how much of a bloodbath the marketplace is between the US and Australia at present. There's simply too much capacity and yields are approaching historic lows. If something doesn't give I'd go as far as to say we'll see capacity reductions before we see capacity adds.
 
YYZLGA
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:14 am

aryonoco wrote:
Having two of the world's biggest four companies headquartered there (Microsoft and Amazon) both of which have significant and growing presence in Australia. Corporate traffic is generally willing to pay a premium for direct flights, and takes care of the front of the plane. Amazon's growing shipments to Australia will also be generating a fair bit of cargo.

My anecdotal experience: three of my friends (all Australian) have joined Amazon and moved to Seattle in the last two years. Amazon has contracts with recruitment agencies who are actively headhunting Aussie engineers.


Completely agree that SEA could likely support flights to Australia. Amazon and Microsoft are far from the world's biggest four companies, though. I was curious where exactly they fell these days and checked out the Fortune Global 500. Amazon is 18th and Microsoft is 71st. They're still two very large companies, and that's a solid corporate base for a lot of international routes--likely why Delta has started its hub there.
 
aryonoco
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:35 am

YYZLGA wrote:
Amazon and Microsoft are far from the world's biggest four companies, though. I was curious where exactly they fell these days and checked out the Fortune Global 500. Amazon is 18th and Microsoft is 71st.


In terms of market cap, they are two of the top four, together with Apple and Alphabet.

The four of them joggle their positions on a daily basis based on share price, but they have been the top four publicly traded companies for a while now.
 
BTV290
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:04 am

If anyone were to jump into this, I think it would be for pure glory, than for any actual monetary gain. I think DL could fill the plane, but at a massive operating loss. Like mentioned earlier--look at HKG. Just because you can fly it, doesn't mean you should. Then there's the matter of DL's long haul fleet already been spread so thin. I'd love to see it--I really would. But I don't foresee this being a thing from anyone in the near to mid future.
 
smi0006
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:11 am

winginit wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
Having two of the world's biggest four companies headquartered there (Microsoft and Amazon) both of which have significant and growing presence in Australia. Corporate traffic is generally willing to pay a premium for direct flights, and takes care of the front of the plane. Amazon's growing shipments to Australia will also be generating a fair bit of cargo.


Amazon has a strictly coach corporate booking policy for virtually everyone even on international long-haul; and while Microsoft does allow for more premium, it's still relatively strict. Even the two of them combined will do little to take care of the front of a SEA-SYD nonstop.

compensateme wrote:
With fares to Australia depressed at the moment (e.g. you can fly from most major cities to SYD for roughly $500 this spring) I doubt DL is interested in adding capacity.


:checkmark:

It can't be emphasized enough how much of a bloodbath the marketplace is between the US and Australia at present. There's simply too much capacity and yields are approaching historic lows. If something doesn't give I'd go as far as to say we'll see capacity reductions before we see capacity adds.


Not to mention with UA adding SFO-MEL, and expected increase with QF/AA JV to lock DL/VA out of the market and NZ cleaning up the bottom, it’s not going to get better any time fast!
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:27 am

smi0006 wrote:
winginit wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
Having two of the world's biggest four companies headquartered there (Microsoft and Amazon) both of which have significant and growing presence in Australia. Corporate traffic is generally willing to pay a premium for direct flights, and takes care of the front of the plane. Amazon's growing shipments to Australia will also be generating a fair bit of cargo.


Amazon has a strictly coach corporate booking policy for virtually everyone even on international long-haul; and while Microsoft does allow for more premium, it's still relatively strict. Even the two of them combined will do little to take care of the front of a SEA-SYD nonstop.

compensateme wrote:
With fares to Australia depressed at the moment (e.g. you can fly from most major cities to SYD for roughly $500 this spring) I doubt DL is interested in adding capacity.


:checkmark:

It can't be emphasized enough how much of a bloodbath the marketplace is between the US and Australia at present. There's simply too much capacity and yields are approaching historic lows. If something doesn't give I'd go as far as to say we'll see capacity reductions before we see capacity adds.


Not to mention with UA adding SFO-MEL, and expected increase with QF/AA JV to lock DL/VA out of the market and NZ cleaning up the bottom, it’s not going to get better any time fast!


I think if the QF/AA JV does get approved, a lot of what we will see is a shift in capacity versus creating new capacity. AA may take over some QF flying. We may see a couple of new routes. We won't see a doubling of capacity or the launch of half a dozen new routes. The market wouldn't be able to bear the capacity additions.
NSW based avgeek
 
n7371f
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:42 am

Northwest was studying SEA-SYD with the 787-8 prior to the merger.

DL doesn't have an ideal aircraft for SYD. The 777ER is an awful lot of seats for a new market. The A350 right now is questionable on even doing LAX-SYD and again it's too large. The smaller aircraft in the fleet don't have the range.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:01 am

n7371f wrote:
Northwest was studying SEA-SYD with the 787-8 prior to the merger.

DL doesn't have an ideal aircraft for SYD. The 777ER is an awful lot of seats for a new market. The A350 right now is questionable on even doing LAX-SYD and again it's too large. The smaller aircraft in the fleet don't have the range.


I agree...DL does not have a good aircraft for the SEA-SYD market. QF would be the best fit for SEA with their 787-9's and their partnership with AS.

Also, it's just a matter of symantecs...but DL would have to use the 777-200 LR. I don't think ER has the range. However, NZ uses it on the YVR-AKL route.
 
B1168
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:13 am

n7371f wrote:
Northwest was studying SEA-SYD with the 787-8 prior to the merger.

DL doesn't have an ideal aircraft for SYD. The 777ER is an awful lot of seats for a new market. The A350 right now is questionable on even doing LAX-SYD and again it's too large. The smaller aircraft in the fleet don't have the range.


Can 332 do it? If they can do DTW-NGO, can the range be extended by 2.5 hours to get by the SEA-SYD flight?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:33 am

B1168 wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Northwest was studying SEA-SYD with the 787-8 prior to the merger.

DL doesn't have an ideal aircraft for SYD. The 777ER is an awful lot of seats for a new market. The A350 right now is questionable on even doing LAX-SYD and again it's too large. The smaller aircraft in the fleet don't have the range.


Can 332 do it? If they can do DTW-NGO, can the range be extended by 2.5 hours to get by the SEA-SYD flight?



2.5hrs is lot. No way not for a mid 2000’s vintage A332, some of the later build 242T ones might get close with minimal freight but DL seem to like to carry a bit of freight.

Maybe the A339 but If the A359 can’t do LAX-SYD for DL with a viable payload then an 339 wouldn’t come close either.

wedgetail737 wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Northwest was studying SEA-SYD with the 787-8 prior to the merger.

DL doesn't have an ideal aircraft for SYD. The 777ER is an awful lot of seats for a new market. The A350 right now is questionable on even doing LAX-SYD and again it's too large. The smaller aircraft in the fleet don't have the range.


I agree...DL does not have a good aircraft for the SEA-SYD market. QF would be the best fit for SEA with their 787-9's and their partnership with AS.

Also, it's just a matter of symantecs...but DL would have to use the 777-200 LR. I don't think ER has the range. However, NZ uses it on the YVR-AKL route.


The 77E could do it but as I said above DL seems to like to carry freight. NZ use the 77E on YVR/IAH-AKL, it’s a very capable aircraft for them in their configuration.
 
aviationaware
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:58 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
but If the A359 can’t do LAX-SYD for DL with a viable payload


Where did you get that? That doesn't sound right.
 
strfyr51
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:20 am

BTV290 wrote:
If anyone were to jump into this, I think it would be for pure glory, than for any actual monetary gain. I think DL could fill the plane, but at a massive operating loss. Like mentioned earlier--look at HKG. Just because you can fly it, doesn't mean you should. Then there's the matter of DL's long haul fleet already been spread so thin. I'd love to see it--I really would. But I don't foresee this being a thing from anyone in the near to mid future.

And you know this HOW? I think you're speculating, You have NO Idea how the flight might be fed from the lower 48 as It doesn't have to come solely from the Seattle area and it doesn't matter hot much is going on in YVR, That's another market entirely!! Delta could market the flight via Alliance Partners...
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:22 am

Delta would have the most feed in SEA to feed the flight.

I guess LAX could get moved to SEA if their focus is connections. It seems unlikely LAX has the O&D sea doesn't for Australia . Delta would need connections to be a priority to relocate it. Don't see it likely. Can't see any other airlines but delta the route would be possible.
 
KICT
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:27 am

QF SYD-SEA on the 787 seems like a route that airplane was designed to do.
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qf789
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:09 am

KICT wrote:
QF SYD-SEA on the 787 seems like a route that airplane was designed to do.


Exactly, at 236 seats it would not be hard to fill. QF would not need to offer a daily service, 4 weekly would be enough and they could adjust capacity to meet demand which they do in other markets. Also QF designed for ULH travel so a flight to SEA would be a viable option
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gunsontheroof
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:53 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Delta would have the most feed in SEA to feed the flight.

I guess LAX could get moved to SEA if their focus is connections. It seems unlikely LAX has the O&D sea doesn't for Australia . Delta would need connections to be a priority to relocate it. Don't see it likely. Can't see any other airlines but delta the route would be possible.


Anything DL has with the legs to do it is too much airplane (and probably an airplane better utilized elsewhere in their network). If it's going to happen, SEA-Oz, will be QF with a 789, less than daily and fed by AS. Not overly optimistic that we'll be seeing it soon, but I think that's how it would ultimately play out.
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:35 am

DL and the cancelled 788 order always comes up in topics like this.

If Delta decided to change their international network strategy... BIG IF... and believed they could make money from a handful of long and thin routes, what would be the minimum number of 788’s they would put in the fleet to make it operationally viable to have a 788 fleet? Yes I get “it depends on the number of routes.” But beyond that DL wouldn’t order/lease two aircraft of one type, so what would be the minimum number?
 
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:38 am

aviationaware wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
but If the A359 can’t do LAX-SYD for DL with a viable payload


Where did you get that? That doesn't sound right.



It has been talked about widely on various Delta or A350 threads. How much truth there is to it I’ve idea. At 306 seats though it does seem like to much plane for a route like SEA-SYD. QF would I agree with others be most likely with a 789.
 
sabby
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:23 am

questions wrote:
DL and the cancelled 788 order always comes up in topics like this.

If Delta decided to change their international network strategy... BIG IF... and believed they could make money from a handful of long and thin routes, what would be the minimum number of 788’s they would put in the fleet to make it operationally viable to have a 788 fleet? Yes I get “it depends on the number of routes.” But beyond that DL wouldn’t order/lease two aircraft of one type, so what would be the minimum number?

If they really wanted a 788 size-range aircraft they could order A338 as it has like 99% commonality with their A339. I don't think DL wants to be in any thin ULH route unless there's a lot of premium demand and maybe some freight as well.
 
jayunited
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:06 pm

n7371f wrote:
Northwest was studying SEA-SYD with the 787-8 prior to the merger.

DL doesn't have an ideal aircraft for SYD. The 777ER is an awful lot of seats for a new market. The A350 right now is questionable on even doing LAX-SYD and again it's too large. The smaller aircraft in the fleet don't have the range.


What?? Why is the A350 questionable on LAX-SYD? Are you implying the A350 might be to large for DL's needs on this route?
If so I find that hard to believe even though LAX-SYD is extremely competitive, it is DL's only flight to Australia on their metal which means the route not only attracts O&D but DL's entire domestic network feeds this one route. How can the A350 which is more fuel efficient and has a lower operating cost than the 77E be questionable for this route?

If you are correct then that begs the question as to why is DL even flying this route? Also If you are correct then there is no way DL's launches SEA-SYD.
 
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:20 pm

jayunited wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Northwest was studying SEA-SYD with the 787-8 prior to the merger.

DL doesn't have an ideal aircraft for SYD. The 777ER is an awful lot of seats for a new market. The A350 right now is questionable on even doing LAX-SYD and again it's too large. The smaller aircraft in the fleet don't have the range.


What?? Why is the A350 questionable on LAX-SYD? Are you implying the A350 might be to large for DL's needs on this route?
If so I find that hard to believe even though LAX-SYD is extremely competitive, it is DL's only flight to Australia on their metal which means the route not only attracts O&D but DL's entire domestic network feeds this one route. How can the A350 which is more fuel efficient and has a lower operating cost than the 77E be questionable for this route?

If you are correct then that begs the question as to why is DL even flying this route? Also If you are correct then there is no way DL's launches SEA-SYD.


I suspect that DL’s current A359s have lower MTOW, thus less capacity than 77E. Routes this long are extremely demanding on takeoff weight—any lack of fuel, and you divert to NAD or BNE. If DL value cargo this much, their only option goes to 77E.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:25 pm

YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?


SEA may have double the pax of YVR but they have a fraction of the international traffic of YVR. SYD, MEL and BNE nonstops have much to do with Whistler. Whistler is the most Australian city outside Australia, it's a massive draw, much of the semi-permanent population in Whistler is from Australia and it's also a massive winter destination for them. The "whistler effect' has also spilled over to much of Metro Vancouver, go to any restaurant or bar in Vancouver and much of the staff is from Australia, same goes for any of the local ski hills around Vancouver. Canada is a Commonwealth Nation and unlike the USA benefits from the 'working holiday' traffic where upon citizens of Australia and work in Canada for up to one year until they're 30. All of these factors fill planes, these flights are a huge success with high LF, AC is already increasing their MEL - YVR frequencies. SEA has none of these factors.
 
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:43 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If YVR can have direct flights to SYD, MEL, & BNE, SEA can seem viable too and they're double pax compared to YVR. Also AS has partnership with QF which helps them start direct flights to SEA when possible as the possible connections at SEA will be good.

LondonXtreme wrote:
Will QF attempt nonstop flight to SEA?


SEA may have double the pax of YVR but they have a fraction of the international traffic of YVR. SYD, MEL and BNE nonstops have much to do with Whistler. Whistler is the most Australian city outside Australia, it's a massive draw, much of the semi-permanent population in Whistler is from Australia and it's also a massive winter destination for them. The "whistler effect' has also spilled over to much of Metro Vancouver, go to any restaurant or bar in Vancouver and much of the staff is from Australia, same goes for any of the local ski hills around Vancouver. Canada is a Commonwealth Nation and unlike the USA benefits from the 'working holiday' traffic where upon citizens of Australia and work in Canada for up to one year until they're 30. All of these factors fill planes, these flights are a huge success with high LF, AC is already increasing their MEL - YVR frequencies. SEA has none of these factors.


I agree. I've seen a lot Aussies and Kiwis working the regional ski resorts around Seattle as well. They are all over the Pacific Northwest in general during our winter months!
 
zkncj
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:42 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
?

winginit wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
I do think NZ will beat them to the punch first.


Without feed from either AS or DL that sounds like a tall order. Is there any sort of robust local demand to speak of?

Nothing to stop NZ doing a codeshare with AS at SEA. They have gone outside of traditional alliance structures to get feed - e.g. AR at EZE.

Cheers,

C.


Adding to that NZ already uses AS for an domestic feeder, eg they already will sell you an ticket on AS (they aren’t just locked into UA.


They are partnered with CX, TN, VS etc who all aren’t *A, and in the past VA and JL.

NZ does have the feed at the Australian end that would help the flight.

Anything is possible...
 
simpv21
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Re: SEA to Australia nonstop

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:44 pm

Does anybody have info on PDEW for SEA-SYD or SEA-Australia? That would seem to answer a lot of these questions.

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