Indian Aviation Thread - February 2019

binayak · Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:36 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Indigo social media team tried to have some fun with its passengers on Twitter. Seriously backfired.

https://twitter.com/IndiGo6E/status/1093112035359879168

Did you see Sanjiv kapoor's response to that? :lol:

Even more hilarious and as usual desperate attempts .

binayak · Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:37 pm

unrave wrote:
binayak wrote:
On average a pilot or an FA flying domestic does 4 flights on a working day . Since 75 flights are cancelled today, around 19 captains seem to have quit today. Wonder why they're quitting in large numbers if the news is true.

Where does it say that pilots have quit en masse?

Someone has posted similar thing and thus I said "if the news is true.. ".

unrave · Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:59 am

SpiceJet Q3 results:
Net profit of Rs 55.1 crore (vs Rs. 240 crore YoY)
Revenue up 20%
ASKM up 16%
Yield up 8%
Will add 7 MAX and 1 freighter aircraft this quarter

CaliguyNYC · Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:31 pm

unrave wrote:
SpiceJet Q3 results:
Net profit of Rs 55.1 crore (vs Rs. 240 crore YoY)
Revenue up 20%
ASKM up 16%
Yield up 8%
Will add 7 MAX and 1 freighter aircraft this quarter

So how come profit went down so much (55 vs 240)? Were costs way up or where there one time expenses?

unnayan · Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:16 pm

unrave wrote:
SpiceJet Q3 results:
Net profit of Rs 55.1 crore (vs Rs. 240 crore YoY)
Revenue up 20%
ASKM up 16%
Yield up 8%
Will add 7 MAX and 1 freighter aircraft this quarter

Still good news.. or else Indian skies would be boring with only A320s

lightsaber · Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:45 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
unrave wrote:
SpiceJet Q3 results:
Net profit of Rs 55.1 crore (vs Rs. 240 crore YoY)
Revenue up 20%
ASKM up 16%
Yield up 8%
Will add 7 MAX and 1 freighter aircraft this quarter

So how come profit went down so much (55 vs 240)? Were costs way up or where there one time expenses?

It was a tough quarter. Fuel was more expensive. For Indian carriers, the drop in the Rupee really hurt:
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/ ... 14450.html

Overall, that is a good result.

Lightsaber

vadodara · Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:35 pm

unrave wrote:
SpiceJet Q3 results:
Net profit of Rs 55.1 crore (vs Rs. 240 crore YoY)
Revenue up 20%
ASKM up 16%
Yield up 8%
Will add 7 MAX and 1 freighter aircraft this quarter

Great to see rev up 20% on 16% addition of askm.

Seems like good focus on operational efficiencies.

unrave · Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:55 am

CAPA Advisory & Research: In FY2019 there were an additional 21.2m seats deployed on domestic Indian routes. All of this growth has been delivered by LCCs and two-thirds of it by IndiGo alone.

BrooklyBOMgal · Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:30 am

binayak wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
binayak wrote:
Are the cancellations concentrated at one base or multiple bases?

Appears to be across the network going into Monday. Several alleged claims like captain shortage, 100 pilots short to maintain schedule, pilots quitting at one base. Usual Bring Your Own Salt(BYOS) rule applies like with any other news coming out.

Seems fishy as till a couple of days ago, everything was alright and today all of a sudden captain shortage!
On average a pilot or an FA flying domestic does 4 flights on a working day . Since 75 flights are cancelled today, around 19 captains seem to have quit today. Wonder why they're quitting in large numbers if the news is true.

I wonder how many users here would have reacted if it was 9W and not 6E.

binayak · Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:42 am

BrooklyBOMgal wrote:
binayak wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Appears to be across the network going into Monday. Several alleged claims like captain shortage, 100 pilots short to maintain schedule, pilots quitting at one base. Usual Bring Your Own Salt(BYOS) rule applies like with any other news coming out.

Seems fishy as till a couple of days ago, everything was alright and today all of a sudden captain shortage!
On average a pilot or an FA flying domestic does 4 flights on a working day . Since 75 flights are cancelled today, around 19 captains seem to have quit today. Wonder why they're quitting in large numbers if the news is true.

I wonder how many users here would have reacted if it was 9W and not 6E.

Simple . A whole new 1000+ posts would've started or the current "cash running out" thread would've been the most trending on this site !

unrave · Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:48 am

binayak wrote:
BrooklyBOMgal wrote:
I wonder how many users here would have reacted if it was 9W and not 6E.

Simple . A whole new 1000+ posts would've started or the current "cash running out" thread would've been the most trending on this site !

And with good reason. An airline with severe financial troubles cancelling flights will generate much more attention.

binayak · Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:54 am

^^ Fortunately that's not happening . They're able to maintain good operational metrics (OTP , cancellation rate etc) even during this situation . Kudos to their management and other employees for their cooperation .

Back to the point , are Indigo's cancellations still happening or they've slowed down because now I don't see any news of flight cancellations .

BrooklyBOMgal · Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:06 pm

I wonder why none of the other airlines had so many cancellations.

BrooklyBOMgal · Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:09 pm

binayak wrote:
.

Back to the point , are Indigo's cancellations still happening or they've slowed down because now I don't see any news of flight cancellations .

It seems 30 flights were cancelled today. As of now the reason is pilot shortage.
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 508_1.html

unrave · Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:10 pm

binayak wrote:
^^ Fortunately that's not happening . They're able to maintain good operational metrics (OTP , cancellation rate etc) even during this situation . Kudos to their management and other employees for their cooperation .

Back to the point , are Indigo's cancellations still happening or they've slowed down because now I don't see any news of flight cancellations .

30 flights have been cancelled even today. IndiGo has put put a statement there will be a capacity correction of 1-2% (roughly 30 flights a day) for the next several days.

BrooklyBOMgal · Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:13 pm

Next several days of flight cancellations. Let's wait and watch how the situation unfolds. I hope 6E doesnt go belly up.

unrave · Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:19 pm

BrooklyBOMgal wrote:
I hope 6E doesnt go belly up.

30 cancellations out of 1300+ departures is hardly a reason for alarm

dtw2hyd · Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:25 pm

BrooklyBOMgal wrote:
binayak wrote:
.

Back to the point , are Indigo's cancellations still happening or they've slowed down because now I don't see any news of flight cancellations .

It seems 30 flights were cancelled today. As of now the reason is pilot shortage.
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 508_1.html

It is possible 6E has too many FOs and not enough Captains. Hope it is just a rostering glitch, not crew hitting flight duty cumulative limits on day 10 of the month.

There are other rumors of airlines attempting to raise fares resulting in ticket sales down forcing cancellations.

Indian carriers completely lost pricing power. Capacity dumping and price lowering are primary reasons. Now there is no way out.

avier · Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:49 pm

I wonder if captain shortage is going to force 6E to reconsider their ambitious +30% growth rate yoy. Their ATR growth plans seems to have taken a beating.
The govt. through their various departments related to the industry is making things harder at so many levels for new foreign expats joining as Captains right from License conversion, medicals, security clearance etc.

VTCIE · Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:35 pm

unrave wrote:
binayak wrote:
BrooklyBOMgal wrote:
I wonder how many users here would have reacted if it was 9W and not 6E.

Simple . A whole new 1000+ posts would've started or the current "cash running out" thread would've been the most trending on this site !

And with good reason. An airline with severe financial troubles cancelling flights will generate much more attention.

Today, it seems 9W is apparently ‘circling the drain’. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... in-451110/ (article behind a paywall)

You will do well to remember that SG was ‘circling the drain’ in 2014. https://crankyflier.com/2014/12/29/airl ... lost-2014/

CaliguyNYC · Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:47 pm

VTCIE wrote:
unrave wrote:
binayak wrote:

Simple . A whole new 1000+ posts would've started or the current "cash running out" thread would've been the most trending on this site !

And with good reason. An airline with severe financial troubles cancelling flights will generate much more attention.

Today, it seems 9W is apparently ‘circling the drain’. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... in-451110/ (article behind a paywall)

You will do well to remember that SG itself was ‘circling the drain’ in 2014. https://crankyflier.com/2014/12/29/airl ... lost-2014/

Anymore info? I thought EY and Jet made a deal. So what new alarmist things are happening?

binayak · Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:50 pm

VTCIE wrote:

Today, it seems 9W is apparently ‘circling the drain’. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... in-451110/ (article behind a paywall)

You will do well to remember that SG itself was ‘circling the drain’ in 2014. https://crankyflier.com/2014/12/29/airl ... lost-2014/

<facepalm! >
That article is dated August 15, 2018 and has the news that jet has deferred q1 results.
I thought today is Feb 12, 2019!

dtw2hyd · Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:27 pm

binayak wrote:
<facepalm! >
That article is dated August 15, 2018 and has the news that jet has deferred q1 results.
I thought today is Feb 12, 2019!

Indian av journalists sometimes open an old article and accidentally/intentionally save it, because of the "update" newswires starts circulating old news again. Web-only articles don't have the original publication date, just have the system generated post date. This recycling technique generally used during the long festival season between Dasera and Dewali.

The mystic of incredible Indian journalism.

binayak · Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:37 pm

I have noticed in the past that websites repost old news saying it's "updated" . However in this case , the website clearly showed the date of post to be the one I mentioned . But on a.net the news became "today" !

dtw2hyd · Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:48 pm

binayak wrote:
I have noticed in the past that websites repost old news saying it's "updated" . However in this case , the website clearly showed the date of post to be the one I mentioned . But on a.net the news became "today" !

You got lucky to find the original date, otherwise, you have to debate as if it is hot off the press.

lightsaber · Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:54 pm

VTCIE wrote:
unrave wrote:
binayak wrote:

Simple . A whole new 1000+ posts would've started or the current "cash running out" thread would've been the most trending on this site !

And with good reason. An airline with severe financial troubles cancelling flights will generate much more attention.

Today, it seems 9W is apparently ‘circling the drain’. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... in-451110/ (article behind a paywall)

You will do well to remember that SG was ‘circling the drain’ in 2014. https://crankyflier.com/2014/12/29/airl ... lost-2014/

Postponing results is bad. Timely information is required to run a company.
At this point, 9W will survive if EY's demands are met.

But in Western parlance, a company not fully paying employees, not meeting lease & loan obligations, and unable to publish an audited quarterly report timely is effectively bankrupt.

So circling the drain is appropriate.

Lightsaber

unrave · Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:56 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
binayak wrote:
<facepalm! >
That article is dated August 15, 2018 and has the news that jet has deferred q1 results.
I thought today is Feb 12, 2019!

Indian av journalists sometimes open an old article and accidentally/intentionally save it, because of the "update" newswires starts circulating old news again. Web-only articles don't have the original publication date, just have the system generated post date. This recycling technique generally used during the long festival season between Dasera and Dewali.

The mystic of incredible Indian journalism.

As we all know, Flight Global is an Indian website and Aaron Chang is an Indian journalist who writes from the Indian city of Singapore

unrave · Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Postponing results is bad. Timely information is required to run a company.
At this point, 9W will survive if EY's demands are met.

But in Western parlance, a company not fully paying employees, not meeting lease & loan obligations, and unable to publish an audited quarterly report timely is effectively bankrupt.

So circling the drain is appropriate.

Lightsaber

No, that is an old article. Jet Airways is not postponing results this time. The results will be out on 14FEB as announced

lightsaber · Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:47 pm

unrave wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Postponing results is bad. Timely information is required to run a company.
At this point, 9W will survive if EY's demands are met.

But in Western parlance, a company not fully paying employees, not meeting lease & loan obligations, and unable to publish an audited quarterly report timely is effectively bankrupt.

So circling the drain is appropriate.

Lightsaber

No, that is an old article. Jet Airways is not postponing results this time. The results will be out on 14FEB as announced

One part possibly good.

In the 9W cash thread I asked a bunch of metric related questions.

With SpiceJet profitable, it should be an interesting reporting season.

When is AI scheduled to start reporting quarterly?

Lightsaber

killswitch13 · Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:49 pm

Air India is planning on adding non-stops to US and Australia

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indian-carriers-to-spread-wings-abroad-ai-to-add-us-oz-nonstops/articleshow/67965168.cms

avier · Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:22 am

^ It's high time an Indian carrier starts a direct BOM-SYD/MEL.

unrave · Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:52 am

killswitch13 wrote:
Air India is planning on adding non-stops to US and Australia

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indian-carriers-to-spread-wings-abroad-ai-to-add-us-oz-nonstops/articleshow/67965168.cms

Yay excited to see more proposals for wasting taxpayer money

VTORD · Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:56 am

The addition of nonstops is most likely to be on Delhi-Chicago routes
I am assuming here that IF this is true, it would resemble the current AI126/127 but from a different originating city than HYD? Perhaps BOM or MAA? And it would replicate the AI173/183 model given that ORD is choc-a-bloc beginning noon thru 7-8 PM. Plus it makes absolutely no sense to have 2 birds in ORD at the same time and both coming from DEL...

unrave · Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:38 am

William Boutler says IndiGo will start China operations by end of 2019
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... 9/1485755/

binayak · Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:51 am

It would be cool if AI makes JFK BOM daily and launches an ORD.
Nice way to take advantage of other's lost opportunity!

anshabhi · Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:02 am

unrave wrote:
No, that is an old article. Jet Airways is not postponing results this time. The results will be out on 14FEB as announced

9W 848 DEL-IXE is being cancelled everyday since 1st Feb, and it appears that they will operate one off special flight 9W 848 on 14th Feb. All other departures till 24th Feb stand cancelled (as I could verify). Is it in anyway related to their results announcements ?

P.S.: I am scheduled to fly on this flight for 3rd March. Just hoping that it doesn't get cancelled

unrave · Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:22 am

anshabhi wrote:

9W 848 DEL-IXE is being cancelled everyday since 1st Feb, and it appears that they will operate one off special flight 9W 848 on 14th Feb. All other departures till 24th Feb stand cancelled (as I could verify). Is it in anyway related to their results announcements ?

P.S.: I am scheduled to fly on this flight for 3rd March. Just hoping that it doesn't get cancelled

It is unlikely to have anything to do with the announcement of results but they have closed a number of flights from IXE. Perhaps they are looking to operate only BOM-IXE flights

anshabhi · Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:39 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Indigo social media team tried to have some fun with its passengers on Twitter. Seriously backfired.

https://twitter.com/IndiGo6E/status/1093112035359879168

Check this: https://twitter.com/khabri_lal/status/1 ... 61793?s=19

unrave · Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:47 am

This is not the first time it's happening. A DEL-BOM flight that I had to take last week was cancelled die to the thunderstorm but the website showed that the flight landed with a half hour delay

anairliner · Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:52 pm

Ashwani Lohani appointed as Air India CMD again! Well, well, well...

https://www.livemint.com/companies/peop ... 21784.html

avier · Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:23 pm

^ So their plans for having seasoned professionals is not happening. They could have thought of some NRI (on the likes of Vinay Dubey, Rono Dutta) from the aviation sector in the US.

dtw2hyd · Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:25 pm

anairliner wrote:
Ashwani Lohani appointed as Air India CMD again! Well, well, well...

https://www.livemint.com/companies/peop ... 21784.html

Now federal funds will start flowing and unconditional social media support by 65,000 paid warriors and 500,000 fans.

unrave · Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:37 pm

There's nothing called "federal funds" in INDIA

anshabhi · Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:49 pm

avier wrote:
^ So their plans for having seasoned professionals is not happening. They could have thought of some NRI (on the likes of Vinay Dubey, Rono Dutta) from the aviation sector in the US.

Not many people like to/can adapt to sarkari way of running a company. The only foreigner bought into government was Raghuram Rajan, and we all know how it ended up ..

Pretty quick re assignment for him, within 1 month of retirement from Railways Board.
TBH, he did pretty good work with AI, with all the expansion and massively boosted staff morale. Yes, fuel was cheap but AI under him posted its first operational profit in a long time.

unrave · Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:56 pm

anshabhi wrote:
avier wrote:
^ So their plans for having seasoned professionals is not happening. They could have thought of some NRI (on the likes of Vinay Dubey, Rono Dutta) from the aviation sector in the US.

Not many people like to/can adapt to sarkari way of running a company. The only foreigner bought into government was Raghuram Rajan, and we all know how it ended up ..

Pretty quick re assignment for him, within 1 month of retirement from Railways Board.
TBH, he did pretty good work with AI, with all the expansion and massively boosted staff morale. Yes, fuel was cheap but AI under him posted its first operational profit in a long time.

The problem is he is quite expansionary. Air India expanding operations is invariably bad news for taxpayers.

avier · Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:02 pm

anshabhi wrote:
Not many people like to/can adapt to sarkari way of running a company.

And that's exactly why they need someone from pvt. sector or NRI to instill more efficient non-sarkari ways of doing things in the airline. That will make the airline more attractive on its next sale bid, if that happens. No one would want to pick a raw sarkari type business.

unrave · Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:06 pm

It has been tried before, and they didn't last more than a few months.

anshabhi · Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:09 pm

unrave wrote:
The problem is he is quite expansionary. Air India expanding operations is invariably bad news for taxpayers.

The only option is to let AI expand, and make it optimal. Its very clear that no other Indian airline is going long haul any time soon, and we don't want foreign carriers to fly away Indians either.

And I don't want to get into this again, but a lot (>60%) of AI's expenditure goes back to govt, in the form of fuel from PSUs, tax to airports, loan payments to Public Sector Banks, and the spending by AI employees boosts the economy.

dtw2hyd · Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:10 pm

avier wrote:
^ So their plans for having seasoned professionals is not happening. They could have thought of some NRI (on the likes of Vinay Dubey, Rono Dutta) from the aviation sector in the US.

They appointed Daggubati Purandeswari as BoD, no one else is better qualified.

I think an AI employee has to be an Indian citizen. Has to be an Indian Administrative Service member to beg(quietly) from other public sector units like oil companies/Airports and PSBs.

If they appoint someone from the private sector, immediately oil companies, airports, and banks cut off their credit lines. Only IxS fraternity keeps AI running.

unrave · Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:14 pm

anshabhi wrote:
unrave wrote:
The problem is he is quite expansionary. Air India expanding operations is invariably bad news for taxpayers.

The only option is to let AI expand, and make it optimal. Its very clear that no other Indian airline is going long haul any time soon, and we don't want foreign carriers to fly away Indians either.

And I don't want to get into this again, but a lot (>60%) of AI's expenditure goes back to govt, in the form of fuel from PSUs, tax to airports, loan payments to Public Sector Banks, and the spending by AI employees boosts the economy.

Then that is a very inefficient way of stimulating the economy. AI has gobbled up ~$11bn of taxpayer funds since 2012 with nothing to show for it.

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