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aviationaware
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:18 pm

EK413 wrote:
I doubt JNB & SCL will be upgauged to A380’s. Would be interesting though to see how these 2 routes pan out once we say farewell to the B747.

EK413


SCL MIGHT be, but JNB just no chance. JNB is going 789 which is likely going to improve the economics of that route significantly, just as it did for all the other routes it was put on. 789 is really a superstar performer for Qantas.

In other news, looks like Qantas has bought up Lufthansa Group's share in Alliance behind Alliance's board's back:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190204/ ... hmxcqj.pdf
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:26 pm

aviationaware wrote:
EK413 wrote:
I doubt JNB & SCL will be upgauged to A380’s. Would be interesting though to see how these 2 routes pan out once we say farewell to the B747.

EK413


SCL MIGHT be, but JNB just no chance. JNB is going 789 which is likely going to improve the economics of that route significantly, just as it did for all the other routes it was put on. 789 is really a superstar performer for Qantas.

In other news, looks like Qantas has bought up Lufthansa Group's share in Alliance behind Alliance's board's back:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190204/ ... hmxcqj.pdf


Assuming they get the appropriate EDTO approval, SCL will almost certainly go 789. A daily 789 (maybe 5/7/6 weekly low season) is basically the same capacity as now but with a better schedule due to more frequent flights and lower operating costs.
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:40 pm

getluv wrote:
The BITRE figures for November were interesting considering it was the first full month following NZ/VAs official break up.

VA average load factor to New Zealand was really average (67%) compared to QF (88%), JQ (86%) and NZ (83.5%). Despite having 20k more seats in the market compared to November 2017, VA still carried fewer passengers.


Good points.

Compared to November 2017 VA was the only one to see a huge drop in load factor as well.

VA was 67% in Nov 2018 compared to 81% in Nov 2017.
NZ was slightly lower by maybe a point or two.
JQ was almost identical.
QF improved by maybe a point or two.

VA’s additional capacity is definitely not being taken up. VA’s future is really starting to look bleak.

Sydney to New Zealand increased by about 6,000 passengers.
Last edited by SeaEagle8 on Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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leftcoast8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:53 pm

With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!
Last edited by leftcoast8 on Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:56 pm

Yes, VA marketing has been evident in NZ in the last few months. BUT I doubt most punters will even have realised - the Virgin brand is not at all prominent. When I saw their adverts, which focus on their full service offering, it took me a while to work out what it was about. I’d like to think I’m pretty alert to airline marketing so I’m doubtful that others less alert will have taken much of the message on board.
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eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:19 pm

QuayWeeAir wrote:

Maybe they or TigerAir could introduce a few more routes...

OOL-CHC
OOL-WLG
TSV-AKL
CNS-AKL
ADL-AKL
ADL-CHC
CBR-AKL
CBR-WLG
MEL-WLG
HBA-AKL

I note that NTL-AKL didnt have that much of a lead up to launch date so hopefully when VA returns these flights at the end of the year loads will improve.

Sorry just my 5cents. Hahahha

Considering their load so far (without knowing the yield but I don't believe it could be that good) I would say most of these smells like a recipe for disaster. MEL-WLG I can definitely see that, but for now they'd better concentrate around SYD/MEL/BNE to build up their load/yield before trying anything else.

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aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:45 pm

Weren't the VA-deathwatch squad claiming that something like 70 per cent of VA's Tasman bookings came from NZ? Clearly that was overegged. And now we're calling time because their first full month of independent ops - and a traditionally quiet month at that - is only two thirds full? If figures remain that way in a year, then sure, problems. But for now? Settle petals.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:29 am

leftcoast8 wrote:
With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!


I am surprised there isnt another option to africa. ET would start Melbourne before Perth.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:28 am

Give at least 6-9 months for VA's Trans-Tasman operations as a solo operator (with codeshares from HU/DL/HX/HA/SQ) before judging from there IMO. If loads hasn't improved in 6-9 months time, sure the armchair folks (myself included at times, I'd admit) can come out with guns blazing (e.g armchair suggestions such as scaling back to AKL/CHC/WLG-MEL/BNE/SYD as one example)

If VA's Trans-Tasman loads (and yields for that matter) had improved in 6-9 months on the other hand, it would be a good thing as far as competition is concerned.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:31 am

It’s not just NZ. Look at VA loads compared to other airlines in similar markets.

And with regards to NZ every other airline maintained their loads.... VA the only one to plummet. Others maintained mid to high 80s in a traditionally quiet month.
Last edited by SeaEagle8 on Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:37 am

waoz1 wrote:
leftcoast8 wrote:
With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!


I am surprised there isnt another option to africa. ET would start Melbourne before Perth.


Is there really sufficient demand from Melbourne to east Africa to justify an ET service? Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see them at MEL but I do struggle to see the market (especially a market with enough yield to support such a long flight).
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:40 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
It’s not just NZ. Look at VA loads compared to other airlines in similar markets.

And with regards to NZ every other airline maintained their loads.... VA the only one to plummet. Others maintained mid to high 80s in a traditionally quiet month.


Asiana and Royal Brunei also had dips along with a few others, especially the former with 50%ish loads.

VA's Pacific Island flights loads (except Fiji) are no surprise (allegedly subsidies are keeping those flights going), however they are in process of pulling out/contracting out their PNG flights to Alliance.

HKG are still in their early days in a JV with HX/HU. The HNA group as well as bilaterals being full on the HK end (hence why HX can't fly to the major AU cities) are really the two primary reasons why HKG was started for VA in the first place.

LAX seems to be stable without growth or a dip, and are also in a JV with long time partner DL.

Last time the suggestion that "VA pulls out of all international", be only domestic and feed all traffic into NZ led to a boardroom spat with all other airline shareholders dismissing NZ as "too selfish", with NZ exiting the group.

SQ are clearly not interested in a takeover, and the closest chance of VA being mostly a "domestic" airline (IF at all) would likely be under DL ownership, with their only int'l being NZ (AKL/CHC/WLG) and LAX. Whilst gaining the nickname of "Delta Australia" in the process, like their sisters at "Delta UK" aka Virgin Atlantic.
Last edited by SCFlyer on Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:43 am

QF742 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
leftcoast8 wrote:
With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!


I am surprised there isnt another option to africa. ET would start Melbourne before Perth.


Is there really sufficient demand from Melbourne to east Africa to justify an ET service? Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see them at MEL but I do struggle to see the market (especially a market with enough yield to support such a long flight).


Well there has been people commenting that they are looking at Melbourne over Perth so only really going by that. Maybe a add on to Melb via Perth might work then? Kenya Airways did have Perth on its radar but they have had some financial issues.
 
leftcoast8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:22 am

waoz1 wrote:
Well there has been people commenting that they are looking at Melbourne over Perth so only really going by that. Maybe a add on to Melb via Perth might work then? Kenya Airways did have Perth on its radar but they have had some financial issues.


I guess it all depends on what ET wants to get out of a flight to Australia. Do they want to focus on O&D traffic to Addis, or target SA/Zim traffic with its vast subsaharan network (in other words, take a quasi-ME3 approach)?

Most people of SA/Zim origin live in Sydney and Perth, but the Habesha Aussies mostly live in Melbourne. Perhaps daily MEL-ADD and a 3-4 weekly SYD-PER-ADD would work.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:39 am

EK413 wrote:
getluv wrote:
Yet leading up to the international operations shakeup when QFI was bleeding there was so much speculation QF was going to chop JNB & JFK from their network to name a few. Here we are 2019 & QF are planning to ramp up JNB with additional service from PER (once PAPL wake up) & a SYD-JFK direct.
EK413


Back then SA was also on the route, which has since left.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:52 am

EK413 wrote:
A B789 on SCL & JNB would be far more suitable allowing QF to increase both service’s to daily. At the same time introducing the PER-JNB service to make up for the capacity drop & provide pax an option.
EK413


Agreed - the 744 is just too much for a daily service, and whilst QF is popular, LA shows that a smaller aircraft and the frequency it allows is better for the route.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:56 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
It’s not just NZ. Look at VA loads compared to other airlines in similar markets.

And with regards to NZ every other airline maintained their loads.... VA the only one to plummet. Others maintained mid to high 80s in a traditionally quiet month.


It was claimed on here, repeatedly, via some throwaway comment in an article, that 70 per cent of VA's bookings on the Tasman came from the "NZ side", that is, via air New Zealand distribution channels. So one would expect massive declines in VA pax numbers, if that were the case. Instead, they dropped by 2.8 per cent. Not great, but not catastrophic.

As has also been discussed ad nauseum by New Zealand forum members, VA hasn't had much of a marketing presence in New Zealand since the NZ-tie up - as if billboards aren't just about the most anachronistic form of marketing in the digital age. This is starting to build now and likely in conjunction with other sales channels. A lot of capacity has been injected into the market by VA - it takes time for this to be absorbed and passenger numbers in the very first full month of independent ops are not a great indicator of long-term success or otherwise, just like the full J classes on my two SYD-AKL Virgin flights last week aren't either.

The expectation of immediate results is pretty ridiculous. 12 months from now, sure. Month 1, please :roll:

Meanwhile, freight has grown considerably on international routes by about 36 per cent and USA services have enjoyed a nearly 20 per cent increase in pax, with overall international pax up by 9.5 per cent. So yeah, context helps. Even then, this is only part of the story - yields etc.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:10 am

Again and not to beat this to death but comparatively (not just NZ) VA is not filling planes in most intl markets relative to other carriers in the similar market. QF is managing to fill its planes and fares are at least at par. Each market can have an excuse why (NZ, HK etc) but even the USA, VA underperforming compared to its peers.

QF is clearly in the driver's seat and perhaps it's latest interest in Alliance is another strategic tactic to pull them away from VA. VA's 737s are way too big for many markets and by using smaller jets on Alliance (POM is the example) can perhaps improve their yields. Take that option away and back to square one.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:16 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:

Compared to November 2017 VA was the only one to see a huge drop in load factor as well.

VA was 67% in Nov 2018 compared to 81% in Nov 2017.
NZ was slightly lower by maybe a point or two.
JQ was almost identical.
QF improved by maybe a point or two.

VA’s additional capacity is definitely not being taken up. VA’s future is really starting to look bleak.

Sydney to New Zealand increased by about 6,000 passengers.


It has only been one month. A 67% average load factor is actually a good result considering that NZ claimed that 70% of passengers carried by VA were actually NZ passengers. Having seen the loads on all NZ flights there are clearly some good performers and some bad performers. Back In the November thread I stated that there was one route that could do with more services. My point is that going on just a LF and passengers number alone for VA's whole NZ ops doesnt go anywhere near telling the whole story.

VA's future is not looking bleak. The bulk of VA's ops are domestic which is profitable. Over the peak Dec/Jan holiday period there has been an improvement in both HKG and LAX loads over last year but I guess everyone will have to wait another month for those figures. The future is bright, the 737MAX will be arriving later in the year and having spoken to many VA pilots and engineers all are excited about the 737MAX. Not only will the aircraft offer fuel savings it will also allow VA to explore new routes that are probably borderline on the existing fleet.
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waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:26 am

qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Compared to November 2017 VA was the only one to see a huge drop in load factor as well.

VA was 67% in Nov 2018 compared to 81% in Nov 2017.
NZ was slightly lower by maybe a point or two.
JQ was almost identical.
QF improved by maybe a point or two.

VA’s additional capacity is definitely not being taken up. VA’s future is really starting to look bleak.

Sydney to New Zealand increased by about 6,000 passengers.


It has only been one month. A 67% average load factor is actually a good result considering that NZ claimed that 70% of passengers carried by VA were actually NZ passengers. Having seen the loads on all NZ flights there are clearly some good performers and some bad performers. Back In the November thread I stated that there was one route that could do with more services. My point is that going on just a LF and passengers number alone for VA's whole NZ ops doesnt go anywhere near telling the whole story.

VA's future is not looking bleak. The bulk of VA's ops are domestic which is profitable. Over the peak Dec/Jan holiday period there has been an improvement in both HKG and LAX loads over last year but I guess everyone will have to wait another month for those figures. The future is bright, the 737MAX will be arriving later in the year and having spoken to many VA pilots and engineers all are excited about the 737MAX. Not only will the aircraft offer fuel savings it will also allow VA to explore new routes that are probably borderline on the existing fleet.



Is there any word on VA introducing a Lie flat product in Business? or going with what they have currently. Was a mixed message a while ago
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:36 am

waoz1 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Compared to November 2017 VA was the only one to see a huge drop in load factor as well.

VA was 67% in Nov 2018 compared to 81% in Nov 2017.
NZ was slightly lower by maybe a point or two.
JQ was almost identical.
QF improved by maybe a point or two.

VA’s additional capacity is definitely not being taken up. VA’s future is really starting to look bleak.

Sydney to New Zealand increased by about 6,000 passengers.


It has only been one month. A 67% average load factor is actually a good result considering that NZ claimed that 70% of passengers carried by VA were actually NZ passengers. Having seen the loads on all NZ flights there are clearly some good performers and some bad performers. Back In the November thread I stated that there was one route that could do with more services. My point is that going on just a LF and passengers number alone for VA's whole NZ ops doesnt go anywhere near telling the whole story.

VA's future is not looking bleak. The bulk of VA's ops are domestic which is profitable. Over the peak Dec/Jan holiday period there has been an improvement in both HKG and LAX loads over last year but I guess everyone will have to wait another month for those figures. The future is bright, the 737MAX will be arriving later in the year and having spoken to many VA pilots and engineers all are excited about the 737MAX. Not only will the aircraft offer fuel savings it will also allow VA to explore new routes that are probably borderline on the existing fleet.



Is there any word on VA introducing a Lie flat product in Business? or going with what they have currently. Was a mixed message a while ago


Wasn't that the "Perth Product"? that was halted a while ago until VA converted 10 of their MAXs to 737-10s. It was also suggested it could go to Fiji (as the A330s currently do on a seasonal basis during the weekends) and AKL
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:39 am

waoz1 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Compared to November 2017 VA was the only one to see a huge drop in load factor as well.

VA was 67% in Nov 2018 compared to 81% in Nov 2017.
NZ was slightly lower by maybe a point or two.
JQ was almost identical.
QF improved by maybe a point or two.

VA’s additional capacity is definitely not being taken up. VA’s future is really starting to look bleak.

Sydney to New Zealand increased by about 6,000 passengers.


It has only been one month. A 67% average load factor is actually a good result considering that NZ claimed that 70% of passengers carried by VA were actually NZ passengers. Having seen the loads on all NZ flights there are clearly some good performers and some bad performers. Back In the November thread I stated that there was one route that could do with more services. My point is that going on just a LF and passengers number alone for VA's whole NZ ops doesnt go anywhere near telling the whole story.

VA's future is not looking bleak. The bulk of VA's ops are domestic which is profitable. Over the peak Dec/Jan holiday period there has been an improvement in both HKG and LAX loads over last year but I guess everyone will have to wait another month for those figures. The future is bright, the 737MAX will be arriving later in the year and having spoken to many VA pilots and engineers all are excited about the 737MAX. Not only will the aircraft offer fuel savings it will also allow VA to explore new routes that are probably borderline on the existing fleet.



Is there any word on VA introducing a Lie flat product in Business? or going with what they have currently. Was a mixed message a while ago


Havent heard anything, though IMO it probably wont happen till the 737MAX10's arrive, not sure they will want to compromise on capacity on the 737MAX8's
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JAKJ
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:16 am

QuayWeeAir wrote:

I recently flew from Brisbane to Auckland and the flight was completely full. Staff were great and the on-board product is definitely much better then it was when they were tied up with Air NZ (apparently they couldn't go "full service" because of Air NZ's "Seats To Suit" model).

Hopefully the December and January numbers improve, as it'll be sad to see them disappear off the Trans-Tasman!


I recently did ADL-MEL-AKL, AKL-SYD-ADL and the transtas economy product was great (where virgin domestic should be) and load factors seemed reasonably healthy. Business class was also 3/4 full on the way over and full on the way back.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:28 am

VA's losses have been declining though depending on which line one looks at.
I guess we will see if VA gets into the black both domestic and international as it has been awhile.
I'd be excited getting new planes too.
Still wondering about the QF/QQ relationship and what (if) that will have an impact on VA's contracting out flying for their smaller aircraft.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:50 am

The Australian reporting new VA CEO choice down to 2: someone at SAS and the other from Dubai Ports World. Ex Hawaiian CEO now not in contention.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:12 am

qf2220 wrote:
Back then SA was also on the route, which has since left.


Quite the opposite, actually. SA hasn’t flown to SYD for a long time (at least two decades I think?) and was codesharing on the QF flight until the ACCC knocked back their application to upgrade the codeshare to a full-blown JV. QF made all manner of threats at the time which is where the speculation that JNB was a weak route came from, clearly all hogwash given they are now looking to grow the route and talking about starting CPT as well.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:31 am

qf002 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Back then SA was also on the route, which has since left.


Quite the opposite, actually. SA hasn’t flown to SYD for a long time (at least two decades I think?) and was codesharing on the QF flight until the ACCC knocked back their application to upgrade the codeshare to a full-blown JV. QF made all manner of threats at the time which is where the speculation that JNB was a weak route came from, clearly all hogwash given they are now looking to grow the route and talking about starting CPT as well.


FWIW SA pulled out of SYD in 2000
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:49 am

Sorry, both QF789 and QF002 are correct, though SA was present as it was a hard block lease on QF planes and SA could exercise price competition on the route. Without that competition QF prices are probably higher now.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:08 am

QF597 BNE-PER diverting to SYD
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SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:22 am

leftcoast8 wrote:
With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!


If ET do ever launch services to PER, it won't be to capture the Aus-Zimbabwe market.

The large Zim diaspora in WA - Per the 2016 census, there were a total of 34,787 people in Australia who were born in Zimbabwe. That is a miniscule number, so not sure why you think the market from PER is significant, given the total potential market from the whole of Australia is insignificant.

Close rugby and cricket ties Umm, I don't think so. Even if there were close ties, this is not going to support the route.

Not having to backtrack via DXB Going PER-DXB-HRE is 8998 miles vs 7730 miles PER-ADD-DXB. That's the approx. an extra 2.5 hours flight time, hardly a significant backtrack.
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IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:03 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
leftcoast8 wrote:
With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!


If ET do ever launch services to PER, it won't be to capture the Aus-Zimbabwe market.

The large Zim diaspora in WA - Per the 2016 census, there were a total of 34,787 people in Australia who were born in Zimbabwe. That is a miniscule number, so not sure why you think the market from PER is significant, given the total potential market from the whole of Australia is insignificant.

Close rugby and cricket ties Umm, I don't think so. Even if there were close ties, this is not going to support the route.

Not having to backtrack via DXB Going PER-DXB-HRE is 8998 miles vs 7730 miles PER-ADD-DXB. That's the approx. an extra 2.5 hours flight time, hardly a significant backtrack.


It is more likely that ET will start with MEL services, given that it has been what has been revered to as their plan in their public comments over the past year.

I do think that India and Africa wiill be growth markets for Australia in the future though.

With only 2 non-stop routes to each continent currently (SYD/MEL-DEL, SYD/PER-JNB), there is room to grow. There are numerous 1 stop options which currently reduce the attractiveness of non-stop services by airlines currently, but as aircraft continue to become more efficient, it will likely change the equation.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:26 am

qf789 wrote:
qf002 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Back then SA was also on the route, which has since left.


Quite the opposite, actually. SA hasn’t flown to SYD for a long time (at least two decades I think?) and was codesharing on the QF flight until the ACCC knocked back their application to upgrade the codeshare to a full-blown JV. QF made all manner of threats at the time which is where the speculation that JNB was a weak route came from, clearly all hogwash given they are now looking to grow the route and talking about starting CPT as well.


FWIW SA pulled out of SYD in 2000



I miss the days SA served JNB-SYD utilising a mix of B747SP & B742 aircraft (clearly identified with their rotating beacon lights).

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
kriskim
Posts: 319
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:28 pm

QF742 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
leftcoast8 wrote:
With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!


I am surprised there isnt another option to africa. ET would start Melbourne before Perth.


Is there really sufficient demand from Melbourne to east Africa to justify an ET service? Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see them at MEL but I do struggle to see the market (especially a market with enough yield to support such a long flight).


Well it looks like ET thinks there is demand: There has been alot of discussion for the new service, even the embassies are being involved as both the Victorian and Ethiopian governments are very keen for a direct service.

Our network spans from Tokyo to Los Angeles and just about anywhere in between. The only inhabited continent we do not fly to currently is Australia, but in the next couple of years we are planning to go to Melbourne.


https://allafrica.com/stories/201703310150.html
A world built upon connectivity.
 
melpax
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:18 pm

The large Miners such as BHP & Rio Tinto have their HQ's in Melbourne, this would drive some demand for the seats up the front for their execs visiting their African operations.
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:28 pm

melpax wrote:
The large Miners such as BHP & Rio Tinto have their HQ's in Melbourne, this would drive some demand for the seats up the front for their execs visiting their African operations.


Being personally involved in the mining industry for sometime. Many of those sent are usually Perth based. As they have on the ground experience.
Things like being based in Melbourne has little to do with it as some divisions are often moved overseas thesedays.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:53 pm

The productivity Commission has handed down its draft report into airports and its not good news for Qantas

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881094920z
Forum Moderator
 
Thorkel
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:08 pm

melpax wrote:
The large Miners such as BHP & Rio Tinto have their HQ's in Melbourne, this would drive some demand for the seats up the front for their execs visiting their African operations.


BHP does, but Rio doesn't have its HQ in Mel. Rio has a couple of small-ish offices in Melbourne, but officially the HQ is in London. Even that is small though - the big offices are in PER and BNE.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:33 pm

qf789 wrote:
The productivity Commission has handed down its draft report into airports and its not good news for Qantas

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881094920z


QF time to cough up & write up a nice big fat check.
I wonder the impact this would have on QF expansion plans, PER-JNB,AKL,CDG,FRA?

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
tullamarine
Posts: 1986
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:13 pm

EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
The productivity Commission has handed down its draft report into airports and its not good news for Qantas

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881094920z


QF time to cough up & write up a nice big fat check.
I wonder the impact this would have on QF expansion plans, PER-JNB,AKL,CDG,FRA?

EK413

Probably nothing. If QF believes there is a viable market for non-stop services from PER to CDG, FRA etc, then they will do it. They have a lounge, staff etc in T1 so there is nothing stopping them and, as a shareholder, I'd expect them to pursue it if it passes their internal return hurdles. Personally, I have my doubts about CDG and FRA but believe JNB is a no-brainer.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Obzerva
Posts: 342
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:18 pm

tullamarine wrote:
EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
The productivity Commission has handed down its draft report into airports and its not good news for Qantas

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881094920z


QF time to cough up & write up a nice big fat check.
I wonder the impact this would have on QF expansion plans, PER-JNB,AKL,CDG,FRA?

EK413

Probably nothing. If QF believes there is a viable market for non-stop services from PER to CDG, FRA etc, then they will do it. They have a lounge, staff etc in T1 so there is nothing stopping them and, as a shareholder, I'd expect them to pursue it if it passes their internal return hurdles. Personally, I have my doubts about CDG and FRA but believe JNB is a no-brainer.


Just a thought bubble, but with SA in a permanent state of struggle, could we ever see a situation where SA withdraws from PER with VA replacing it, and SA codesharing on VA?

VA have served JNB before
it wouldn’t be competing with any of VA’s current (many) owners
There would still be connectivity with domestic and intra Africa SA connections.

Availability of A330s would be the thing I would imagine, but if things went south for HX and VA decided against HKG flying, there’s an aircraft right there.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2053
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:32 pm

qf789 wrote:
The productivity Commission has handed down its draft report into airports and its not good news for Qantas

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/pe ... 881094920z


Hmm I’ll have to do some reading, but I’ve never agreed with separating the aeronautical margins from the rest - there would be no retail, car parking or rental returns if there was no airport there.... so why isn’t their income included? It’s like if QF only reported raw ticket sales, but exclude profit from excess baggage, lounge membership, and date change fees etc..,
 
tullamarine
Posts: 1986
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:44 pm

Obzerva wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
EK413 wrote:

QF time to cough up & write up a nice big fat check.
I wonder the impact this would have on QF expansion plans, PER-JNB,AKL,CDG,FRA?

EK413

Probably nothing. If QF believes there is a viable market for non-stop services from PER to CDG, FRA etc, then they will do it. They have a lounge, staff etc in T1 so there is nothing stopping them and, as a shareholder, I'd expect them to pursue it if it passes their internal return hurdles. Personally, I have my doubts about CDG and FRA but believe JNB is a no-brainer.


Just a thought bubble, but with SA in a permanent state of struggle, could we ever see a situation where SA withdraws from PER with VA replacing it, and SA codesharing on VA?

VA have served JNB before
it wouldn’t be competing with any of VA’s current (many) owners
There would still be connectivity with domestic and intra Africa SA connections.

Availability of A330s would be the thing I would imagine, but if things went south for HX and VA decided against HKG flying, there’s an aircraft right there.


Possible but unlikely.

VA pulled out of MEL-JNB because ETOPS rules at the time made it unviable due to the route they were forced to fly. It would be possible now but I don't think VA are interested in such a destination preferring to use partners for non-core routes.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:30 pm

waoz1 wrote:
melpax wrote:
The large Miners such as BHP & Rio Tinto have their HQ's in Melbourne, this would drive some demand for the seats up the front for their execs visiting their African operations.


Being personally involved in the mining industry for sometime. Many of those sent are usually Perth based. As they have on the ground experience.
Things like being based in Melbourne has little to do with it as some divisions are often moved overseas thesedays.


Treasury and corporate functions seem to be located in Melbourne but operations and most of the smallish players seem to go to Perth and Brisbane - cheaper rents and closer to operations!
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:39 pm

openskies88 wrote:


Scurrah, scurrah....

ok ok im off...
 
redroo
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:49 pm

qf2220 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
melpax wrote:
The large Miners such as BHP & Rio Tinto have their HQ's in Melbourne, this would drive some demand for the seats up the front for their execs visiting their African operations.


Being personally involved in the mining industry for sometime. Many of those sent are usually Perth based. As they have on the ground experience.
Things like being based in Melbourne has little to do with it as some divisions are often moved overseas thesedays.


Treasury and corporate functions seem to be located in Melbourne but operations and most of the smallish players seem to go to Perth and Brisbane - cheaper rents and closer to operations!


Exactly. All the key people are in PER or BNE. Melbourne is mainly head office suits. Not much high vis on Collins Street.
 
waoz1
Posts: 502
Joined: Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:31 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:12 am

qf2220 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
melpax wrote:
The large Miners such as BHP & Rio Tinto have their HQ's in Melbourne, this would drive some demand for the seats up the front for their execs visiting their African operations.


Being personally involved in the mining industry for sometime. Many of those sent are usually Perth based. As they have on the ground experience.
Things like being based in Melbourne has little to do with it as some divisions are often moved overseas thesedays.


Treasury and corporate functions seem to be located in Melbourne but operations and most of the smallish players seem to go to Perth and Brisbane - cheaper rents and closer to operations!


Some treasury functions moved to KL and they now fly people from Perth for HR, training etc
 
berari
Posts: 612
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:29 am

leftcoast8 wrote:
With the recent political chaos in South Africa and the collapse of SAA, is it possible that Ethiopian will start service to Australia in order to capture Aus-Zimbabwe traffic? I could see ET making a killing on PER-ADD-HRE, considering:

-The large Zim diaspora in WA
-The close rugby and cricket ties between Australia and Zim
-Not having to backtrack via DXB!


SAA has not collapsed. If anything its Australia service is more competitive to those in Zimbabwe than ET's or any of the middle eastern airlines. How big of a factor is rugby and cricket to warrant an airline service that may make it profitable? Doesn't QF still fly to South Africa, if anything, it stands to benefit.

kriskim wrote:

Well it looks like ET thinks there is demand: There has been alot of discussion for the new service, even the embassies are being involved as both the Victorian and Ethiopian governments are very keen for a direct service.


ET would depend on a lot more than Zimbabwe to make it work, and even then Southern Africa wouldn't be its target market for it is well served by SAA and QF via JNB. ET would scrape off customers from all over Africa to be able to make it work.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:56 am

Guys a quick observation from my sister who flew ABX-SYD yesterday morning on a VA ATR. She said that the pilots on the flight were in REX uniforms.....
 
waoz1
Posts: 502
Joined: Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:31 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:38 am

Report of a Helicopter Crash in the south west

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/hel ... 881097261z
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