Waterbomber2
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:03 am

I don't think that the A380 line is coming to an end, or at least, I don't think that it should.

EK POV

I think that EK is facing challenges that I've mentionned before.
Rising financing cost due to faltering business model, intensifying competition from China on Europe-Asia routes.

I think that there is nothing wrong with the A380, but rather, there is something wrong with the way airlines are using it.
The A380 is a 850 seater people hauler and it is being abused at corporate jet densities.
Airbus has sold the market too much on the cruise ship concept and airlines have misunderstood the real purpose of this aircraft.

It's not that airlines can't fill it. They can, but the A380 only fits in specific business plans.
Airlines nowadays are used to milking the premium cabins to make aircraft like the B77W operate profitabily.
But this concept doesn't work for the A380 and current A380 operators have come to this realisation by reducing premium cabins and increasing the economy class.
As an example, 8 First and 66 J seats out of Kuala Lumpur? Are they insane?

A380 operators have made the mistake of focussing too much on the premium cabins. This works only for a handful of routes where business traffic dominates. This could work on a JFK-LHR route. But an operator like AF shouldn't have any trouble filling a 550 seat Y cabin to one of the most popular leisure destinations in the world. Sure, there is business in Paris too, but not everyday and all year round. There is however always a huge inbound and outbound leisure demand.

EK is one of the first ones to have come to the realisation that their Y cabin is making sense but not the forward cabins, hence why they have swiched to that 615 seat configuration recently. Even that is such a waste, they should really add additional economy class cabins at 11-abreast and/or even 12-abreast and capitalise on that.
Sure, businessmen fly EK as well, but the competition from non-stop operators is too fierce for EK to survive.

If you can really fill 80-100 F/J seats, you shouldn't be operating an A380, but an all-premium B77W or A330 if range permits.
Otherwise, you should capitalise the A380's floor space by selling economy class seats, until you can force some competitors who can offer non-stop routes out of business or out of main routes and grab their premium traffic. Take significant Y traffic away from any competitor.

Airbus POV
It would be a huge mistake for Airbus to stop A380 production to focus on the A350.
The A350 has its own backlog and it's huge.
Any A380 sale, even at the same price as an A350, is a sale. It will take more to build an A380 that an A350, but trends today do not mean anything in 5 years. Heck, we were supposed to be at 200 USD a barrel of oil by now according to big shot anaylysts, but look where we are.


In a cheap oil environment, it doesn't matter how much more fuel efficient the A330neo, A350, B787 or B77W is.
If A380's can be had for cheap, you're basically getting a lot of additional capacity to sell for just a bit more cost.
You have lower capital cost per unit,
The A380 presents a unique opportunity in that you basically get a B77W with an A330 cabin on top of it, and you only need to pay a month's lease cost worth of additional fuel to haul it around.
So basically, you can lease a B77W and get a B77W, or you could lease an A380 and get a B77W + A330 and the fuel is free on the A330 if you pay the lease on it, or pay the fuel and the lease is free.
 
kevin5345179
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:38 am

frigatebird wrote:
kevin5345179 wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Yet neighbouring Etihad is experiencing NO issues with its 787-10s....so I call BS on that front.

And EY's 787-10s are duel class I believe, so not exactly lightly loaded machines.


and Leeham reported that market intelligence says EY wants out from remaining 78J order

https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... ent-250274


No kidding. Market intelligence says EY also wants out of their A350 order, should we conclude the A350 is a terrible performer in the ME hot and high conditions?


1. EY is still accepting more 787s and they have pilots trained for the type while they didn't train any pilots for A350
2. it happens that main discussion for that particular piece is about 78J engines are too small
 
VV
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:24 am

kevin5345179 wrote:
2. it happens that main discussion for that particular piece is about 78J engines are too small


What does "too small" mean anyway?
What the heck???
 
WIederling
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:15 pm

VV wrote:
kevin5345179 wrote:
2. it happens that main discussion for that particular piece is about 78J engines are too small


What does "too small" mean anyway?
What the heck???


Insufficient Hot and High performance. i.e. no reserves.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:22 pm

WIederling wrote:
VV wrote:
kevin5345179 wrote:
2. it happens that main discussion for that particular piece is about 78J engines are too small


What does "too small" mean anyway?
What the heck???


Insufficient Hot and High performance. i.e. no reserves.


But neighboring Etihad with its dense 2class 787-10s with genX engines is having no troubles at all....go figure!
 
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flee
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:24 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
WIederling wrote:
VV wrote:
What does "too small" mean anyway?
What the heck???

Insufficient Hot and High performance. i.e. no reserves.

But neighboring Etihad with its dense 2class 787-10s with genX engines is having no troubles at all....go figure!

Will they cope during the summer season without load restrictions?
 
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Revelation
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:32 pm

VV wrote:
kevin5345179 wrote:
2. it happens that main discussion for that particular piece is about 78J engines are too small


What does "too small" mean anyway?
What the heck???

I think "that particular piece" refers to https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/ which gives one take on the situation.

It is, however, opinion stated as fact.

On the other hand, we see from EK's displeasure with RR's EP3 version of T900 on A380, that they are quite demanding when it comes to maintaining durability in the face of high temperatures with maximum payloads.
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majano
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:34 pm

flee wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Insufficient Hot and High performance. i.e. no reserves.

But neighboring Etihad with its dense 2class 787-10s with genX engines is having no troubles at all....go figure!

Will they cope during the summer season without load restrictions?

I think you are asking the correct question, but from the wrong guy....
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:29 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

But neighboring Etihad with its dense 2class 787-10s with genX engines is having no troubles at all....go figure!



You are assuming two things:
-Emirates have the same requirements as Etihad.
-Etihad is having no troubles at all ( by troubles I guess you mean payload/range/hub bank restrictions).

We have no evidence of the above assumptions, thus can't make any conclusion whether the 787-10 is a good fit or not for Emirates' needs.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:34 pm

brindabella wrote:
BA should have done the CFRP fuse on the 777X.


And then spend billions extra on top of the CFRP development costs to certify an entirely new aircraft... I think not.
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jagraham
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:34 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
But Etihad has similar conditions and have 5 in its fleet already flying to places as far as MAN.


To be fair a 7 hour flight isn't really that far when the 78X can fly for well over 10 hours...


This is the whole point. MAN is 7 or so hours away from DXB. Just within the 78J max structural payload range. So if a fully loaded 78J gets to MAN, where is EK trying to go with a fully loaded 78J?

This has to be about converting and salvaging the A380 order of which 20 are firm and real money is involved.
 
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william
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:00 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
brindabella wrote:
BA should have done the CFRP fuse on the 777X.


And then spend billions extra on top of the CFRP development costs to certify an entirely new aircraft... I think not.


What he or she says..................spot on.
 
wingman
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:08 pm

AsiaTravel wrote:
We have no evidence of the above assumptions, thus can't make any conclusion whether the 787-10 is a good fit or not for Emirates' needs.


All of these comments about 787-10 "suddenly" not being right for EK and Etihad, is the plane not meeting specs as promised or did these two airlines not understand their own requirements? This all seems much more about competitive deterioration at the airlines themselves forcing them into fleet changes for survival, and little to do with the plane's performance guarantees or its meeting of them. But I stand to be corrected if its not meeting its promises.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:28 pm

brindabella wrote:
BA should have done the CFRP fuse on the 777X.



I recall reading that some airlines did ask Boeing for a CFRP fuselage on the 777X -- Boeing said it could build that plane, but the airlines wouldn't like the cost. When airlines learned how much Boeing would have to charge for each CFRP 777, they decided aluminum was just fine.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:56 pm

wingman wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
We have no evidence of the above assumptions, thus can't make any conclusion whether the 787-10 is a good fit or not for Emirates' needs.


All of these comments about 787-10 "suddenly" not being right for EK and Etihad, is the plane not meeting specs as promised or did these two airlines not understand their own requirements? This all seems much more about competitive deterioration at the airlines themselves forcing them into fleet changes for survival, and little to do with the plane's performance guarantees or its meeting of them. But I stand to be corrected if its not meeting its promises.


Rumors of the 78X's demise are greatly exaggerated. Fanboy fantasy in fact. EK studied the A350 and 78X at length and choose the latter for that need. Whether present day economics and politics spin that differently has nothing to do with the performance of the 78X.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:58 pm

JAAlbert wrote:
brindabella wrote:
BA should have done the CFRP fuse on the 777X.



I recall reading that some airlines did ask Boeing for a CFRP fuselage on the 777X -- Boeing said it could build that plane, but the airlines wouldn't like the cost. When airlines learned how much Boeing would have to charge for each CFRP 777, they decided aluminum was just fine.


At what added benefit would a CRFP fuse provide for the cost? It already has a CRFP wing, among other bits I'm sure.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:45 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
At what added benefit would a CRFP fuse provide for the cost? It already has a CRFP wing, among other bits I'm sure.


Lower structural weight, though Boeing moved to a lighter lithium-aluminum alloy for the 777X fuselage (compared to the aluminium alloy used on the 777). Also better fatigue resistance.
 
VV
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:50 pm

WIederling wrote:
VV wrote:
kevin5345179 wrote:
2. it happens that main discussion for that particular piece is about 78J engines are too small


What does "too small" mean anyway?
What the heck???


Insufficient Hot and High performance. i.e. no reserves.


Sorry, but it still doesn't make sense.

It depends on the range you want to fly or the amount of payload you want to carry.

The categorization of "too small" is absurd or the guy does not know how to choose or to operate an aircraft.

Are they serious at Emirates? The discussion is quite scary if it really happens
 
WIederling
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:54 pm

wingman wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
We have no evidence of the above assumptions, thus can't make any conclusion whether the 787-10 is a good fit or not for Emirates' needs.


All of these comments about 787-10 "suddenly" not being right for EK and Etihad, is the plane not meeting specs as promised or did these two airlines not understand their own requirements?


Not suddenly. That is your perception.
The MOU was done Nov. 2017 or there abouts?

Think about an MOU including some task list (7810 as it stands BUT fix this, this and that ) set for Boeing.
Think about why this never turned into a solid order.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:21 pm

This is the every other week the 787-10 is a crap plane argument that Airbus fanboys trot out to make themselves feel better.

This despite zero evidence of any performance problems at all.

The 787-10 can fly any mission the A330 Neo can with better economics.

Tim Clark with EK praised the 787-10 economics as excellent and said it could fly 95% of the routes in EK's network. How has this changed?

My guess is this speculation is fueled by EK having second thoughts about the A380 and reviewing their fleet needs. This is not about 787-10 performance issues.
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:23 pm

Stitch wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
At what added benefit would a CRFP fuse provide for the cost? It already has a CRFP wing, among other bits I'm sure.


Lower structural weight, though Boeing moved to a lighter lithium-aluminum alloy for the 777X fuselage (compared to the aluminium alloy used on the 777). Also better fatigue resistance.

The 787 is a great example of how incredibly good CFRP is for fatigue. It is a widebody with a structural life far beyond any possible economic life:.
66,000 flight cycles (10% more than the A320 and more than any other widebody that I can recall). To put in perspective 36,000 is generally plenty for a widebody. A typical widebody does 3 or 4 cycles at day (on the high end) or 1,200 or so a year in most non-domestic duty. Only ANA or JAL care about high cycles. Even brutally used widebodies are well under 3,000 cycles/year.

200,000 flight hours. I believe the highest certified? Does anyone have the maximum in service. IIRC, 747s have approached cert limit. To put in perspective, the most intense widebody use is 17 hours/day or 6,200/yr. No one flies that intensely for 32+ years (older aircraft are always moved into lower utilization duty of 8 to 12 hours/day).

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musman9853
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:34 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
This is the every other week the 787-10 is a crap plane argument that Airbus fanboys trot out to make themselves feel better.

This despite zero evidence of any performance problems at all.

The 787-10 can fly any mission the A330 Neo can with better economics.

Tim Clark with EK praised the 787-10 economics as excellent and said it could fly 95% of the routes in EK's network. How has this changed?

My guess is this speculation is fueled by EK having second thoughts about the A380 and reviewing their fleet needs. This is not about 787-10 performance issues.



yeah i can totally see the 78J being cancelled, but not because it can't do what ek wants.
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Eyad89
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:36 pm

wingman wrote:


All of these comments about 787-10 "suddenly" not being right for EK and Etihad, is the plane not meeting specs as promised or did these two airlines not understand their own requirements?


It’s not sudden at all. Tim Clark had talked about the underpowered engines long before he signed the MoU of 40 787-10s.

This is from 2015:


The airline’s president, Tim Clark, raised doubts about the 787-10’s ability to carry heavy passenger and cargo loads for distances beyond eight hours due to the performance in hot climates - an issue for an Arabian Gulf-based airline.


Link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thenat ... ed-1.44433

Now, it’s been a year and a half since EK signed the MoU, and the order is is still not firmed. Were they expecting a thrust increase? Were they negotiating with RR for a larger order of Trent 900s and Trent 1000s? I don’t know.


This has nothing to do with EY, as they could simply be very happy with their 78Xs. EK has different payload requirements. As Clark has said, EK is quite demanding when it comes to heavy cargo and passengers, we don’t know the exact payload he’s referring to here, but it sounds like Dubai’s summer won’t be kind to them.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:39 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
This is the every other week the 787-10 is a crap plane argument that Airbus fanboys trot out to make themselves feel better.

This despite zero evidence of any performance problems at all.

The 787-10 can fly any mission the A330 Neo can with better economics.

Tim Clark with EK praised the 787-10 economics as excellent and said it could fly 95% of the routes in EK's network. How has this changed?

My guess is this speculation is fueled by EK having second thoughts about the A380 and reviewing their fleet needs. This is not about 787-10 performance issues.

I believe EK is doing a complete fleet review without further A380s. A strategy shift requires a standown. If, as rumored, EK does buy more 777X to offset fewer A380 and takes A350 to minimize penalties to Airbus, it will impact 787-10 need. But not from a performance perspective.

I could see A359s to the Americas. But for flights to Europe, Asia (excluding Japan which will be 777s or A380s), and Africa (excluding South Africa which will be A380s/777s), the 787-10 is amazing. EK needs an 11 hour aircraft.

But because if strategic need, everything should be reviewed.

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wingman
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:58 pm

I think Lightsaber is spot on. EK knew exactly what they were buying at time of the MOU and then their situation deteriorated. I find it hard to believe they signed an MOU contingent upon a dramatic improvement in hot and high performance. The pros outweighed the cons then but this new reality means a cancelled MOU and a knife in the 380. But I don’t see the reasons for each being the same. It would help to see EY operating stats I guess.
 
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Stitch
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:14 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
Now, it’s been a year and a half since EK signed the MoU, and the order is is still not firmed. Were they expecting a thrust increase? Were they negotiating with RR for a larger order of Trent 900s and Trent 1000s? I don’t know.


Emirates made it clear that they were going to single-source their engine deal for the A380 and either the 787 or A350 from Rolls-Royce.

It is possible Emirates had not firmed their 787-10 deal because they are using the Trent 1000-TEN engine deal as leverage to get whatever they wanted from RR on the Trent 900s (for even though 20 frames of the A380 deal were "firm", that firmness was contingent on EK and RR signing a Trent 900 engine deal, which has yet to happen).

EK had no reason to choose the 787-10 over the A350-900 if they felt the 787-10 was not capable of doing all the missions they wanted it to - doubly so after Boeing refused to modify the frame to EK's specific requirements prior to them signing the MoU. So personally, I believe EK is floating a "red herring" with the 787-10 not having enough thrust to cover another reason, perhaps not with the 787-10 but with negotiations regarding their A380 order.

If EK is seriously considering backing out of a significant portion of their remaining A380 order - including undelivered frames from the 2013 order in addition to the 20 they placed in 2018 - they would likely incur penalties from both Airbus and RR (at least for thee 2013 frames). As such, EK would either need to work a deal with Boeing to eat them to keep the 787-10s (something Boeing might not be willing to do) or consider sacrificing the 787-10s for A330-900s / A350-900s to offset the A380 cancellations.
Last edited by Stitch on Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The 787 is a great example of how incredibly good CFRP is for fatigue. It is a widebody with a structural life far beyond any possible economic life:.
66,000 flight cycles (10% more than the A320 and more than any other widebody that I can recall). To put in perspective 36,000 is generally plenty for a widebody. A typical widebody does 3 or 4 cycles at day (on the high end) or 1,200 or so a year in most non-domestic duty. Only ANA or JAL care about high cycles. Even brutally used widebodies are well under 3,000 cycles/year.

200,000 flight hours. I believe the highest certified? Does anyone have the maximum in service. IIRC, 747s have approached cert limit. To put in perspective, the most intense widebody use is 17 hours/day or 6,200/yr. No one flies that intensely for 32+ years (older aircraft are always moved into lower utilization duty of 8 to 12 hours/day).


747s have reached around 143k hours in service (I believe the all-time leader is a recently retired KLM 747-400). I don't know of any other type that has surpassed that. MD-11s and 767s have each exceeded 120,000 hours, and I think it's likely there were some DC-10s that got there as well. To date all Airbus widebody types except the A350 (I don't know its limits) have been limited to 100,000 hours or less, so they haven't accumulated these gaudy numbers.

There is always an outlier somewhere and I'm very curious to see if anyone ends up flying an early 787 (I think the most likely candidates are early-build 787-9s from 2014-15) well past 150k hours. I'll be an old man by the time that happens!
 
Eyad89
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:19 pm

wingman wrote:
I think Lightsaber is spot on. EK knew exactly what they were buying at time of the MOU and then their situation deteriorated. I find it hard to believe they signed an MOU contingent upon a dramatic improvement in hot and high performance.


Thing is, there must be a lot of details/negotiations regarding the 787-10’s MoU that we simply don’t know, all we can do is guess.

The hot and high performance concerns aren’t just rumors or speculations, they are concenrs that were raised by the president of EK himself. Sure, EK could be wrong with their assessment, but now that real life performance figures are available, EK could make a better informed decision.

Someone can correct me, is it normal for an MoU to last this long before it gets confirmed? Perhaps this has nothing to do with performance and it’s simply a matter of further negotiations with RR/ GE. Could it be that RR has given up on the Trent 900 and decided to offer the Trent XWB in a way that made the A359 more appealing?

Or as others have said, maybe it is the fleet planning review that pushed EK to reduce its A380, and then it became better for EK to convert some of their A380 order to A359, which rendered the 78X redundant? Or is the timing of EY dropping its A350 order and EK considering thr A350 again not just a mere coincidence?

There are so many factors to consider here.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:37 pm

I doubt that performance is the only factor. The 787-10 appears to be performing in line with expectations in terms of both field performance and fuel burn, so it's not like something changed between 2015 and now. But performance does affect revenue potential on some routes, and so it can be a thumb on the scale when there is a complex negotiation going on. Additional revenue potential of A350-900s on 11-13 hour routes could well influence a very close decision, which by all accounts 787 vs. A350 always was for Emirates, and make it more attractive to get out of A380 orders by replacing 787s with A350s.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:26 pm

I don't think it is simply a fortuitous accident that EK has failed to firm the 787-10 MoU for such a long time. After all, if they had firmed before now, they would not have the wriggle room whch they appear now to need.

I am sensing the deployment of a Plan B which has been there all along. Not yet clear what it is though!
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:59 pm

I think the -10 will be more of a victim to EK downgrading its expansion plans than any performance deficits. I also think that it was always most likely that they would either go for the 350 or the 787, but not both.

The swap of 380's for 350's pretty much makes the choice for them. Emirates is facing stiffer competition than ever before and adding that extra type to the fleet is a cost they really don't need.
What the...?
 
ELBOB
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:22 pm

lightsaber wrote:
200,000 flight hours. I believe the highest certified?
Lightsaber


L1011 was 210,000 hours and 115,000 cycles

Some unforeseen rear spar cracking was found at 50,000+ hours but was repairable. Fleet leader went over 80,000 hours I think.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:03 am

seabosdca wrote:
I doubt that performance is the only factor. The 787-10 appears to be performing in line with expectations in terms of both field performance and fuel burn, so it's not like something changed between 2015 and now. But performance does affect revenue potential on some routes, and so it can be a thumb on the scale when there is a complex negotiation going on. Additional revenue potential of A350-900s on 11-13 hour routes could well influence a very close decision, which by all accounts 787 vs. A350 always was for Emirates, and make it more attractive to get out of A380 orders by replacing 787s with A350s.


Do you have a specific source RE: 787-10 inline with expectations?
 
VV
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:54 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
My guess is this speculation is fueled by EK having second thoughts about the A380 and reviewing their fleet needs. This is not about 787-10 performance issues.


It is certainly not about 787-10 performance issue nor is it about A380 performance issue.

It is just Emirates, I guess.
 
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flee
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:02 am

VV wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
My guess is this speculation is fueled by EK having second thoughts about the A380 and reviewing their fleet needs. This is not about 787-10 performance issues.

It is certainly not about 787-10 performance issue nor is it about A380 performance issue.

It is just Emirates, I guess.

It was about the RR performance issues - the Trent 900 was not able to meet EK fuel burn targets. When EK ordered the previous 50 units, it was hoped that the order for 200 engines was large enough to encourage RR to further improve the engine until a Neo was launched. When they ordered the 20 units last year, it was to help Airbus tie over their production void till a Neo could be available post 2025. At the same time, EK wanted RR to improve the fuel efficiency of the Trent 900s. That was why EK was waiting on answers from RR before the contract was signed with them.

Unfortunately, none of what EK wanted was delivered. So we have reached a stage whereby the order is now put very much in doubt.
 
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scbriml
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:03 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
WIederling wrote:
VV wrote:

What does "too small" mean anyway?
What the heck???


Insufficient Hot and High performance. i.e. no reserves.


But neighboring Etihad with its dense 2class 787-10s with genX engines is having no troubles at all....go figure!


Different airlines with different requirements. What works for one may not work so well for the other. The hot and high performance of the 787-10 was raised as an issue by EK before the MOU was signed.

Maybe EK was promised something that hasn’t/can’t be delivered. We don’t know just as you can’t confirm EY is operating the 787-10 “with no troubles at all”.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:00 am

scbriml wrote:

Different airlines with different requirements. What works for one may not work so well for the other. The hot and high performance of the 787-10 was raised as an issue by EK before the MOU was signed.

Maybe EK was promised something that hasn’t/can’t be delivered. We don’t know just as you can’t confirm EY is operating the 787-10 “with no troubles at all”.


EK knew exactly what it signed up for - they have had lots of interactions with Etihad about the -10.

And yes I can confirm that EYs 78J's are operating with no troubles at all - unless you have something to the contrary?? Just because I am not sharing Etihad's data doesn't mean I don't have it.

I await your counter-evidence. Thanks.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:13 am

flee wrote:
VV wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
My guess is this speculation is fueled by EK having second thoughts about the A380 and reviewing their fleet needs. This is not about 787-10 performance issues.

It is certainly not about 787-10 performance issue nor is it about A380 performance issue.

It is just Emirates, I guess.

It was about the RR performance issues - the Trent 900 was not able to meet EK fuel burn targets. When EK ordered the previous 50 units, it was hoped that the order for 200 engines was large enough to encourage RR to further improve the engine until a Neo was launched. When they ordered the 20 units last year, it was to help Airbus tie over their production void till a Neo could be available post 2025. At the same time, EK wanted RR to improve the fuel efficiency of the Trent 900s. That was why EK was waiting on answers from RR before the contract was signed with them.

Unfortunately, none of what EK wanted was delivered. So we have reached a stage whereby the order is now put very much in doubt.


Was it about the engine performance issue?
Wasn't the big aircraft needed for landing slot scarcity at busy airports?
There was a discussion here that big aircraft would alleviate the issues related to crew shortage.

Will they put high density configuration on the 777-9 to compensate possible fewer A380 in the future?

Has slot availability ceased to be a problem?

I just don't understand the big picture. I guess the performance"issue" is just an excuse to cover bigger reasons that we do not understand.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:22 am

VV wrote:
flee wrote:
VV wrote:
It is certainly not about 787-10 performance issue nor is it about A380 performance issue.

It is just Emirates, I guess.

It was about the RR performance issues - the Trent 900 was not able to meet EK fuel burn targets.

I guess the performance "issue" is just an excuse to cover bigger reasons that we do not understand.

Well, I don't know what we should consider as "big" or "bigger" but if you have a fleet of 50 RR-powered A380s, i.e. 200 engines and these engines have a higher fuel burn then contractually agreed, then I guess it's a really big issue. Then again, EK made the last order for 20 A380s when they already knew about the shortcomings (correct me if I am wrong). That would support your theory that there are other reasons that we do not know (as so often...).


What might be the timeline for the next "events"? I mean, when will we hear something official from any of the three parties?

A pre-briefing of the a.net-community by Airbus, RR and EK would be appropriate, wouldn't it? :duck:
 
WIederling
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:41 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
EK knew exactly what it signed up for - they have had lots of interactions with Etihad about the -10.
.


rofl.
They did not sign for a finalized order. ( probably because the knew about they unfixed shortcomings :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:18 pm

WIederling wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
EK knew exactly what it signed up for - they have had lots of interactions with Etihad about the -10.
.


rofl.
They did not sign for a finalized order. ( probably because the knew about they unfixed shortcomings :-)


Yes, I'm aware they didn't yet sign a formal deal. They did however sign an mou.

Not sure why you find it funny.
 
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Stitch
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:39 pm

WIederling wrote:
(EK) did not sign for a finalized order. ( probably because the knew about they unfixed shortcomings :-)


So why bother signing an MoU in the first place if you knew the plane had shortcomings and you knew Boeing was not going to address them? Perhaps they really like Boeing's catering and wanted a nice lunch.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:25 pm

I agree this is about RR engines not any of the planes.

EK made clear in both the A380 and 787-10 deals they were contingent on the engine manufacturer. Rolls has not done what EK wanted and the A380 and 787-10 appearing to be paying the price.

Pretty simple to understand and not the fault of either Airbus or Boeing.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
2175301
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:29 pm

Stitch wrote:
WIederling wrote:
(EK) did not sign for a finalized order. ( probably because the knew about they unfixed shortcomings :-)


So why bother signing an MoU in the first place if you knew the plane had shortcomings and you knew Boeing was not going to address them? Perhaps they really like Boeing's catering and wanted a nice lunch.


Because with a MoU they get another and highly accurate scale model of an airliner to add to their collection of models :)

Seriously, I believe that these discussions were really started by Airbus because Tom Enders knows that his predecessor needs to and will clean up messes to redirect Airbus; and Tom wishes to clean up the A380 mess prior to his leaving so his predecessor does not need to.

With no engine contract with RR for the 20+ I believe that contract is probably null and void as I cannot believe EK would not have had a clause in there making the contract contingent of completion of an engine contract (which other respected members of A-net have alluded to as well).

To me this discussion is about the other A380's currently contracted for - and Airbus is looking to wrap up production in as cost efficient and timely manner as possible. In my opinion; A330's and A350's are likely being offered more as compensation than anything for Airbus wishing an change in the current contract with EK. Airbus is not likely to make much money on those; but, may make money on follow-up orders.

Expect to hear in relatively short order the cancellation of the Amedeo 20, Air Accord 3, and any other stragglers out there.

Have a great day,
 
VV
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:38 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
I agree this is about RR engines not any of the planes.

EK made clear in both the A380 and 787-10 deals they were contingent on the engine manufacturer. Rolls has not done what EK wanted and the A380 and 787-10 appearing to be paying the price.

Pretty simple to understand and not the fault of either Airbus or Boeing.


This statement implies that Engine Alliance quit delivering new engines, such that there is absolutely no choice but to order RR engines.
Has EA formally stated they didn't want to power EK's last order?

So would it be EA's' fault if EK cancels the order? That would be absurd.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:55 pm

VV wrote:
This statement implies that Engine Alliance quit delivering new engines, such that there is absolutely no choice but to order RR engines. Has EA formally stated they didn't want to power EK's last order?


Emirates felt that Engine Alliance was not being as proactive with their PiPs for the GP7200 as Rolls was for the Trent 900 so that is why they selected the Trent 900 for their 50 frame order in December 2013.

EA did develop another GP7200 PiP in 2015, but Emirates again felt it was not enough and again chose the Trent 900 for their two-frame top-up order in April 2016 and then their 20+16 options in January 2018.
 
Vladex
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:06 pm

seahawk wrote:
Vladex wrote:
seahawk wrote:

The design for a technology demonstrator is frozen, but that is a long way from an engine for the A380.


A and RR have signed a collaboration aggreement. They must be onto something.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... labor.html


Yes, both participated in the European Clean Sky 2 program.


They are not in the business of clean skies.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 27
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:56 pm

Stitch wrote:
VV wrote:
This statement implies that Engine Alliance quit delivering new engines, such that there is absolutely no choice but to order RR engines. Has EA formally stated they didn't want to power EK's last order?


Emirates felt that Engine Alliance was not being as proactive with their PiPs for the GP7200 as Rolls was for the Trent 900 so that is why they selected the Trent 900 for their 50 frame order in December 2013.

EA did develop another GP7200 PiP in 2015, but Emirates again felt it was not enough and again chose the Trent 900 for their two-frame top-up order in April 2016 and then their 20+16 options in January 2018.


Ask yourself how relevant that is with oil at 50-60 USD /barrel. A PIP takes millions to develop and certify, while the resulting minimal fuel savings may be wiped out or achieved by the weekly volatility in the oil market. The PIPs also carry their own risk, so you might as well start trading oil futures instead.

It has long been established that EK is successful when oil is high. Whether that is linked to customer behavior or oil subsidies, nobody outside of EK can say. The reality is that oil is staying low so that EK is going struggle to keep their artificial business model alive. So the immediate temptation would be to downsize their fleet. But this would be a huge mistake, as the A380 is why people fly EK and how EK reaches a decent level of revenues despite only having so many traffic rights.
Take the A380 out and EK's business model collapses like a deck of cards.
The low load factors do not necessarily indicate that the A380 is too big. It may indicate a poor yield management or marketing management, a poor business strategy, the wrong cabin lay-out or a combination of these.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:15 pm

Stitch wrote:
VV wrote:
This statement implies that Engine Alliance quit delivering new engines, such that there is absolutely no choice but to order RR engines. Has EA formally stated they didn't want to power EK's last order?


Emirates felt that Engine Alliance was not being as proactive with their PiPs for the GP7200 as Rolls was for the Trent 900 so that is why they selected the Trent 900 for their 50 frame order in December 2013.

EA did develop another GP7200 PiP in 2015, but Emirates again felt it was not enough and again chose the Trent 900 for their two-frame top-up order in April 2016 and then their 20+16 options in January 2018.


It still does not provide an answer as the efficiency difference between GP7200 and Trent 900 should not be huge, otherwise one of them would have not survived since day one.

What is the performance improvement they were expecting? Five percent (science fiction)?

If they badly need an aircraft as big as A380 it is probably because there are features on the aircraft that makes it a much better solution than other aircraft. If they absolutely need a performance improvement it means there is already a more compelling alternative to that aircraft.

Or is there another possible reason that we do not know? Is it because the traffic volume is not growing as they would love to see? Maybe so. Or is it because it becomes more difficult to get the funding for the aircraft? I do not know.

I am just asking questions because I sincerely do not know anything around this story and you guys seem to know everything.
 
Strato2
Posts: 351
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:36 pm

2175301 wrote:
To me this discussion is about the other A380's currently contracted for - and Airbus is looking to wrap up production in as cost efficient and timely manner as possible. In my opinion; A330's and A350's are likely being offered more as compensation than anything for Airbus wishing an change in the current contract with EK. Airbus is not likely to make much money on those; but, may make money on follow-up orders.


Keep on dreaming. Airbus cannot make A350's and A330's fast enough as it is. Not in a million years will they deliver less Superjumbos than are contracted.

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