lightsaber wrote:

To answer my own question from earlier,it looks as if EK hasn't finalized the final 36 (dispute with RR continues). Hattip Revelation for the link in 797 thread:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbu ... KKCN1PP2NH

If the A35K has lower fuel burn than promise and EY slots allow an amicable deal, it looks as if A380 production will end early. Bummer (as an enthusiast), but I calculate more profit per 779 flight than per A388 flight. It isn't people count, but profit margin or profit per flight.

So I can see A338, 779/778(very few), A35K, and 787-10.

Perhaps a few A359 and fewer 778?

Lightsaber

A338? You mean Airbus will force an investment in a different rotten egg from a rotten egg? I don't see it.

It will be a "similar value" exchange from A388 to A359/K. How many of those can you buy for 36 A388? Using list prices, which I doubt are relevant.

I see the 78J order staying where it is for regional routes. Maybe even more if Boeing has to give up a 778 or two. The 779 will remain or perhaps get a bump in order. A combo of A359/K will be fill the difference. No A338/9 will be ordered.

Reading the articles, the 350 part seems like speculation. The only clear part appears that EK is negotiating on the a380.

A possible outcome is EK cancels the a380 order and walks away. That's it. The a380 order is still contingent on the engine issue.

Antarius wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

As it most likely part or all of the 77X order...

Based on?

The tremendous sales success of the 77X and the (apparent lack of) need for Emirates to have big planes.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

A338? You mean Airbus will force an investment in a different rotten egg from a rotten egg? I don't see it. .

I think that's a typo. A388 - their existing fleet

EK is not buying the 338.

seabosdca wrote:

IslandRob wrote:

Yeah, I don't understand it either. Why would there suddenly be a need for the A35K in EK's fleet? Seems like the logical answer would be to double down on 779s. -ir

Maybe because there is a need to find a productive use for deposits paid to Airbus?

Or maybe because (as noted upthread) the 35K is performing well in service and EK will want some of those 779 to fill the roles of NTU A380s.

To your first point: Conventional wisdom says there are escape clauses in the A380 contract, e.g., "satisfactory performance" of RR engines, which allow EK to cancel without forfeiting deposits.

To your second point: Plausible, I suppose, but...

An alternate take: Maybe EK is playing its time-honored game of talking to A in order to get a better deal with B? -ir

WayexTDI wrote:

Antarius wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

As it most likely part or all of the 77X order...

Based on?

The tremendous sales success of the 77X and the (apparent lack of) need for Emirates to have big planes.

So conjecture and speculation. That's it.

A 779 is still a decent amount smaller than the 388. At their LF of 78% average a smaller plane would actually benefit them without being too small.

Anyways, let's not start speculating with no fact on totally unrelated order just because EK may finally be done with the a380.

I never considered this possibility but it makes a lot of sense. It's a win/win for Airbus and EK. Airbus gets a face saving way to shut down the 380 line, and increased 350 production to offset shutting down the 380 line. The 380 resources can be repurposed to support profitable lines.

The 350, 320 and 220 could all do with those resources.

Emirates has more than enough 380's to suit them for decades to come. They have been resisting getting new ones for a while and big twins gives them more versatility.

Boeing may even come out a winner. As it stands, they can easily unload every 787-10 they can crank out to other airlines, but they would really love to get some more 77X orders. I think Boeing would jump at the chance to swap some -10's for 77X's for EK.

There is enough overlap of the 350 with the 787 that it's not out of the realms of possibility that they grow their fleet around the 77x and the 350 going forward, which makes more sense to me than the 380, 77X, 350 and 787. Maybe they will get the 787 but that would give them a 4 type fleet when they've resisted more than 2 types for a long time. My gut feeling is 3 types would be more palatable to EK than 4.

Food for thought.

Frankly, I think this is a clever and elegant move which opens up myriad possibilities going forward.

Another possibility: The articles and press release says that Airbus is in discussions with EK about their A380 Order.

Note: It did not say "which" order.

The 20+16 A380 order may still be legally dead - and not coming to life. So it may not be the order being discussed.

What if Airbus is discussing either a faster delivery or even not completing the existing A380 order as it's better for Airbus to shut down the line reasonably fast (say in 2 years); and perhaps they could swap some of the existing A380's for A350's (or whatever).

Pay attention to what has been actually said... and the possibilities on what could be discussed in such a scenario.

Have a great day,

Q wrote:

What do you think Emirates will last retire fleet A380 in? I would say 15 more years to go.

Q

I would say 10-15 years. No more than 15 at the most. Emirates likes to keep their fleet young.

Antarius wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

Antarius wrote:

Based on?

The tremendous sales success of the 77X and the (apparent lack of) need for Emirates to have big planes.

So conjecture and speculation. That's it.

A 779 is still a decent amount smaller than the 388. At their LF of 78% average a smaller plane would actually benefit them without being too small.

Anyways, let's not start speculating with no fact on totally unrelated order just because EK may finally be done with the a380.

Yup, just like the major part of this thread...

I know its a pax numbers deal, figuring out how many pax to a plane and all, but if anything, I think there are already so many models of aircraft that can fly the distances they need to fly. Airbus has the 330, 340, 350, and the 380 all able to take pax very long distances. and in most cases the flights are typically not near their capabilities as it is. Boeing 767 777 787 and remaining 747. Add them all up and that is a lot of choices of aircraft all capable of 10 or more hour flights, depending on only their most maxed out loads. So many to choose from, all capable and dependable. They keep making greater and greater capacity to these planes with exception to the 380 and 747. And I see all these crazy speculations about it all as if the airlines and the makers are about to go broke at any moment with one wrong move, I highly doubt it. Only when the top brass make HUGE blunders do we see airlines go broke now. Everyone is making pretty good money. I think generally we are and they are all fine.

Even Emirates realized they need fuel efficient planes and also need planes that can land at smaller airports. With the 787 and 350s, they could have more point to point routes vs the a380 hub and spoke model. Focus on medium size airports that dont have such a high demand.

But this is definitely the kiss of death for the A380 .... if this goes through.

This sounds like the Airbus leadership has decided to make a clean break with previous strategy and abandon the A380 program. Not completely surprising - the program is well within sunk cost fallacy in terms of the investment it would take to keep it alive long term...

Is anyone on Anet surprised at all by this? I think that the A350/787 are the wayto go. I think Airbus is secretly pushing for it to shore up the A350 line, and Emirates has to see that the resale value is higher, and the maintenance costs lower on the A350.

Just another push to re-engine the A380 IMO. Clearly no progress is being made to resolve the shortcomings of the T900.

Throwing another type into the mix, and operating the A350 alongside the 777 or large number of 777Xs on order doesn't make sense and seems very redundant.
If the A350 is a serious consideration, then either the 787 or 777X order are in hot water too.
Not to mention it involves changing their entire business model.

pabloeing wrote:

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2019/01/airbus-statement-on-commercial-discussions-with-emirates-airline.html

Well obviously. Since the contract involves the engine supplier and EK and RR can't come to terms. Nothing about that statement indicates anything about the thread title or the Reuters article.

Q wrote:

What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

Q

They remain in service. This is about the most recent order for 36.

airfrnt wrote:

This sounds like the Airbus leadership has decided to make a clean break with previous strategy and abandon the A380 program. Not completely surprising - the program is well within sunk cost fallacy in terms of the investment it would take to keep it alive long term...

Nothing like it.
This would be a decision by EK, not Airbus. And is pure speculation.

The only sensible choice for EK, is to cancel the A380s and unify the fleet to 777 and 787. Pay the contract penalties for Airbus and move on.

seahawk wrote:

The only sensible choice for EK, is to cancel the A380s and unify the fleet to 777 and 787. Pay the contract penalties for Airbus and move on.

It's hard to picture them being a one OEM show.

seahawk wrote:

The only sensible choice for EK, is to cancel the A380s and unify the fleet to 777 and 787. Pay the contract penalties for Airbus and move on.

EK is not going to simply park all the current A380s in service....

PlanesNTrains wrote:

seahawk wrote:

The only sensible choice for EK, is to cancel the A380s and unify the fleet to 777 and 787. Pay the contract penalties for Airbus and move on.

It's hard to picture them being a one OEM show.

The A380s won´t go away for 10 years, but in the long run EK needs to look at improving their efficiency. And imho their biggest need is a type smaller than a 777W and well suited for medium length routes. Imho this is the 787-1000.If you look at their network, they currently run everything with their long range planes and imho the A350 adds nothing to the fleet.

My take is that EK has decided not to order additional 380's. Consequently they want to order more 777X, and need some sort of lever to keep Boeing pricing under control.

Ruscoe

lightsaber wrote:

PM wrote:

pabloeing wrote:

¿B787-10 and A350 in the future fleet?

As best I can see, the 787 order has not yet been finalised. It's not on the Boeing O&D page yet.

Cancel the 787s and fly A350s? Now, THAT would be an upset.

Huge!

Going for round 3 on the A350.

This could be bad news for the 787. Worse for the A380.

What a soap opera!

Lightsaber

Since they have A380's on order? It's highly unlikely Airbus will let them cancel the order OR? Give them back their Deposits. So? Buying the A350 might well be their ONLY out,

I'm not sure if I'm crazy or not but didn't Emirates want to retain the mixed fleet of Airbus and Boeing rather than taking sides? Makes sense as both offer things the other does not.

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:

Even Emirates realized they need fuel efficient planes and also need planes that can land at smaller airports. With the 787 and 350s, they could have more point to point routes vs the a380 hub and spoke model. Focus on medium size airports that dont have such a high demand.

But this is definitely the kiss of death for the A380 .... if this goes through.

Emirates might want to fly to the USA to airports that wouldn't pour new runways nor Taxiways, Nor modify any gates just for the A380. Which was a stupid Idea on it's face.

Q wrote:

What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

Q

Some A380's will be delivered later this year, I bet some orders maybe converted to the A350's.

Another possibility; Airbus is bringing in the ending of the line possibility once again to put pressure on EK to finally decide if they are willing to pay what it takes to extend the A380 production as long as required before Enders retires.

This has never been a deal from heaven. With continous hickups with closing the deal with all parties trying to put the financial burden of extending the production of the not very competitive anymore CEO at the other parties. It could very well be that Airbus doesn't want any further lingering from EK and just wants to force a decision.

Emirates was looking for a NEW engine, Well? If the engine doesn't come from Rolls? I doubt they will get another engine.

Strato2 wrote:

For the masses the "Jumbo Jet" was always about transporting people not some cheap Chinese electronics flying from some obscure freight hub to another. The A380 indeed ended the plane that captured the imagination of people before - the 747 passenger with the last version utterly failing (47 orders for three airlines).

Huh? The A380 hardly did much of anything to the 747.

That plane's pax prospects were much more actively destroyed in-house... by the 77W.

Taxi645 wrote:

Another possibility; Airbus is bringing in the ending of the line possibility once again to put pressure on EK to finally decide if they are willing to pay what it takes to extend the A380 production as long as required before Enders retires.

This has never been a deal from heaven. With continous hickups with closing the deal with all parties trying to put the financial burden of extending the production of the not very competitive anymore CEO at the other parties. It could very well be that Airbus doesn't want any further lingering from EK and just wants to force a decision.

This is my take as well. Airbus is putting pressure on EK, since EK hasn't finalized the final 36, due to a dispute with RR. There are long lead times in aircraft production and agreements with suppliers run for many years. Additionally, Enders is about to retire. Airbus needs to be sure if EK is fully committed to the final 36 aircraft.

When Airbus threatens to close down the A380 line, this puts tremendous pressure on EK.

With more than 100 A380s, and still many undelivered A380 on firm order, EK will take a huge hit if Airbus closes the A380 production line.

The reason of course is that the value of EKs A380 would fall like a rock. The value of a used out-of-production aircraft is very low. Operational cost for out-of-production aircraft is higher (getting spare parts etc.).

My guess is that EK will fully commit to the final 36.

I always pictured the end of the 380 program to be a slow and drawn-out affair; what are the implications of a sudden cancellation of the program for the suppliers and in-service aircraft?

JHwk wrote:

I always pictured the end of the 380 program to be a slow and drawn-out affair

One could argue that 19yrs of completely anemic sales, save for one atypical airline, falls under that description....

I don't see the A350 coming to the fleet without it impacting the fleet elsewhere. they are not going to create a whole new fleet and create new routes for them - it has to come at the expense of something else.

If confirmed it would either eat into the space at the lower end previously planned for the 787-10, or into space at the upper end for the 77X.

The 77X on the other hand would one assumes eat up some of the space planned for the A380's

In this scenario the 787-10 is I would suggest the most under threat (after the A380 of course!), and that orders have not yet been firmed gives EK flexibility there also.

2175301 wrote:

Another possibility: The articles and press release says that Airbus is in discussions with EK about their A380 Order.

Note: It did not say "which" order.

The 20+16 A380 order may still be legally dead - and not coming to life. So it may not be the order being discussed.

What if Airbus is discussing either a faster delivery or even not completing the existing A380 order as it's better for Airbus to shut down the line reasonably fast (say in 2 years); and perhaps they could swap some of the existing A380's for A350's (or whatever).

Pay attention to what has been actually said... and the possibilities on what could be discussed in such a scenario.

Have a great day,

These are my thoughts as well.

The problem for Airbus and EK is when the end of A380 production is announced financing / valuation of in service / in production aircraft will instantly drop. Allowing Emirates to cancel the original A380's with RR engines will limit the impact of shutting down the A380 production line.

I suspect Rolls Royce is reluctant to continue investing in the Trent 900 meaning the viability of the A380 as a passenger plane has reduced. If we consider upgrades to the RR engines would have benefited in service aircraft the failure of Rolls Royce to commit to the Trent 900 has wider ramifications for current A380 operators.

The reality is the discussions between Airbus and EK are material and will have a commercial impact on both businesses. It is not surprising that Airbus decided to inform the market if these talks.

chrisp390 wrote:

Time for DL to pick up some deeply discounted end of the line A380’s?

Not DL but BA - after all it was reported that during the last round of talks between BA and Airbus that it was only price that was the factor from BA topping up with a few more.

The talk of EK taking over EY's 350 order...this would involve much embarrassment within the inner circles of Abu Dhabi's rulers so politics would have a major say in this matter.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

The Airbus fanbois wet dream of their 77X and 78J orders just going belly up in exchange for a zillion A359/K needs to just stop right now. Ain't happening. It's just your fantasy.

All fanboys need to take a breath and reality check.

Like the A380 add-on order, the 777X remains conditional. No tranches are unconditional.

The 78J is still a MoU. No tranche is even conditional.

No airline the size of EK would want to be A, B, GE or RR exclusive.

If the A380 line is closing, EK can cancel existing conditional A380 orders. EK contracts will have condition precedent and subsequent clauses. A condition subsequent clause likely includes retrospective discounts on already delivered, and undelivered unconditional A380's, much loved by leasors to compensate for reduced residuals when a niche model is cancelled within x years of delivery (LH almost certainly have this on the 748i, which is why Boeing hasn't formally cancelled the model).

Watch 777X and A350 list and negotiated prices surge if/when A380 production ends.

Revelation wrote:

OA940 wrote:

I'd be willing to bet they will order the A350, but also keep the 787. They could use the 778 and 779 to replace and upgauge the 777s flying today, and use the A350 and 787 for smaller routes without that much demand. Say, if they ordered the 35K (perhaps with EY's slots if they cancel their order), they could have the 78J or even 789 for their smaller routes, the 35K and 779 take over the 77W routes, the 778 for ULH or flights with a lot of cargo demand and the 388 to keep doing its current role. I think it could work out pretty well for them.

I'm not following the logic.

STC and Airbus aren't the best of buddies these days. He basically left them standing at the altar in Paris because they would not commit to the A380 with "copper bottomed guarantees". It looks like his concern was justified. He walked away from A350 when it changed in a way he didn't like. He orders 787-10 saying “The Boeing 787-10 aircraft is the best choice for Emirates, it’s a good eight-hour aircraft.”. How does not getting the A380s he did get a commitment on translate to a sale of A35K? He already has the world's largest 777-3 fleet and 777-8 and 777-9 on order. The best plane to use for the cancelled A380s would be 777-9. He's had the opportunity to order A359 or A35K for 77W replacement for years now and has not done so. Seeking to cancel his A380 orders wouldn't increase the attractiveness of A350 in any way, IMHO.

I would agree with you if it was just the initiative of Airbus to accelerate the end of production for the A380. But we don't know that. We do know Airbus and EK are in discussion about it.

It may very well be EK has changed their minds a year on. Maybe ordering more A380s is not such a good idea after all. Flying them half empty in the low season is something they could get away with in the past, but not anymore. (OT: I remember a Tuifly 738 flight DXB-AMS had to be cancelled a while ago. All 180 pax could be rebooked to a single EK flight!).

Right sizing could be the way forward. While the Qatari and UAE governments are not on speaking terms anymore, I'm sure Al-Baker and Clark still are. It would not surprise me if Al Baker would rave about how good the A350s are working for QR. And QR are doing well, still growing despite the sanctions of Qatar's neighboring countries. Rightsizing the fleet like QR does (even going for the A321LR now) should have something to do with it.

So EK may see some sense in slowly rolling their A380 fleet over with 777-9s, and their 77W fleet with A35K's, 787-10s and even -9s. Perhaps the A359 could have a role too. The only doubt I have is for the 777-8.

And yes, I also think the Dubal and Abu Dhabi rulers may have had a chat about EY's A350 order too. But that's something I don't believe will ever go public.

Operationally EK quite possibly would do very well with a 77X,77W & 787 fleet. But, there are two other points which come to mind, one of which has been mentioned.is the single supplier situation. The other is a political one which has not, to my knowledge. How long will EK enjoy such liberal traffic rights to the EU and UK with an all Boeing and possibly all GE fleet?

781 definitely suits EK better than A359 in most of Asia, EU and Africa. But if they are forced to buy A359/A35K combo to compensate for cancelling A380, they may not firm up the 781 order for now. Also, cancelling A380 almost certainly means more top up of 779 in the future if they find the it is working really well for them after EIS. After 15+ years, I can see EK using A359, A35K, 781 and 777X as per the route demand and length.

Not to drift away from the thread's topic. BA is still interested in buying additional A380s if the price is right. WW has said that if Airbus wants to sell more A380s, they should set a cheaper price.

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... s-11195266

xwb777 wrote:

Not to drift away from the thread's topic. BA is still interested in buying additional A380s if the price is right. WW has said that if Airbus wants to sell more A380s, they should set a cheaper price.

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... s-11195266

A cheaper price would mean a loss making deal for Airbus, Walsh should know he isn't going to get it. Airbus probably is ignoring his comments, it's a bit of a broken gramophone record.

Well Airbus has some orders that will likely not be taken up. Those could be left to new customers for outlet prices like some Qantas birds maybe?

frigatebird wrote:

xwb777 wrote:

Not to drift away from the thread's topic. BA is still interested in buying additional A380s if the price is right. WW has said that if Airbus wants to sell more A380s, they should set a cheaper price.

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... s-11195266

A cheaper price would mean a loss making deal for Airbus, Walsh should know he isn't going to get it. Airbus probably is ignoring his comments, it's a bit of a broken gramophone record.

They’re probably still in talks if the truth be known...

strfyr51 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

PM wrote:

As best I can see, the 787 order has not yet been finalised. It's not on the Boeing O&D page yet.

Cancel the 787s and fly A350s? Now, THAT would be an upset.

Huge!

Going for round 3 on the A350.

This could be bad news for the 787. Worse for the A380.

What a soap opera!

Lightsaber

Since they have A380's on order? It's highly unlikely Airbus will let them cancel the order OR? Give them back their Deposits. So? Buying the A350 might well be their ONLY out,

They probably can't get their deposits back without switching to the a350, but they 100% can cancel the order.

Actually EK is unlikely to cancel any orders, since they are so dependent on the A380...this may be negotiation tactics to get better pricing or at least a minor engine upgrade.

If A380 production eventually stops in the next few years... I would hope that EK can top off their orders and abandon their 12-year in service limit. EK is the only carrier that effectively uses the A380 capacity. There is no reason why an A380 could not stay in service for 25 years if well maintained.

A380 may have been a market dud...but it is a decent, roomy product for passengers.

Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/

LoganTheBogan wrote:

Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/

And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216

frigatebird wrote:

xwb777 wrote:

Not to drift away from the thread's topic. BA is still interested in buying additional A380s if the price is right. WW has said that if Airbus wants to sell more A380s, they should set a cheaper price.

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... s-11195266

A cheaper price would mean a loss making deal for Airbus, Walsh should know he isn't going to get it. Airbus probably is ignoring his comments, it's a bit of a broken gramophone record.

Airbus is already making losses at current production rates and BA is unlikely to order in quantities large enough to increase the rate. So I guess Airbus will ignore that comment. If WW wants A380s at dirt cheap prices, he should look at the rather dead used market.... He should be able to pick up some real bargains!

QuarkFly wrote:

Actually EK is unlikely to cancel any orders, since they are so dependent on the A380...this may be negotiation tactics to get better pricing or at least a minor engine upgrade.

If A380 production eventually stops in the next few years... I would hope that EK can top off their orders and abandon their 12-year in service limit. EK is the only carrier that effectively uses the A380 capacity. There is no reason why an A380 could not stay in service for 25 years if well maintained.

A380 may have been a market dud...but it is a decent, roomy product for passengers.

EK hasn't firmed the last 36 per prior link I posted.

It isn't just capacity, it is cost. EK, per my calculations will make more profit per flight with the 779. With new airports cropping up globally, bypass must be undercutting yeild. So EK must focus on costs.

EK is dependent on some quantity of A380, but not 100+. They could slowly reduce the fleet. I simply do not see the A388 profitable a decade after 779 EIS. So continuing to buy now is a money losing proposition.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

EK hasn't firmed the last 36 per prior link I posted.
Lightsaber

yes it is: 20 firm + 16 options, the 787-10 is not firmed yet.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... a380s.html

queb wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

EK hasn't firmed the last 36 per prior link I posted.
Lightsaber

yes it is: 20 firm + 16 options, the 787-10 is not firmed yet.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... a380s.html

I believe what isn't firm is the engine order - and this is past the Airbus deadline. So the order is in jeopardy because RR is not able to meet EK's performance demands.