marcelh
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:46 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
EK will not be buying A330neo's when capital markets are highly reticent to back/fund it. Given that Ostrich-Egg is a 'journo', it stands to reason he knows diddly-squat about the finance world and just why EK won't sink a dirham into the A330neo.

Oops
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:51 am

This thread should now be locked.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:34 am

Stitch wrote:
Next up will likely be the expiration of the 787-10 MoU and an increase of their 777X order by 20 or more frames.


How important is it for EK to throw B a bone like that? They have 150 on order already - do they really need to order a few dozen more to appease Boeing?
-Dave


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Matt6461
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:36 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Next up will likely be the expiration of the 787-10 MoU and an increase of their 777X order by 20 or more frames.


How important is it for EK to throw B a bone like that? They have 150 on order already - do they really need to order a few dozen more to appease Boeing?


EK's business model relies on scale; the absence of new A380's would seem to require more of the new biggest production airliner to maintain a scale economy edge.

OTOH I'm sure EK is privy to Airbus plans for A350NEO, including its stretch. That plane would kill the 777X.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:38 am

Q wrote:
What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

Q


"inn 380" the worlds real airport hotels.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:39 am

The fact that all the A350s are -900s pretty much confirms that more 777X will be coming. There are a staggering number of 77Ws and 388s to replace over time, and the 777-9X is going to be the backbone of the future EK fleet.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:44 am

seabosdca wrote:
The fact that all the A350s are -900s pretty much confirms that more 777X will be coming. There are a staggering number of 77Ws and 388s to replace over time, and the 777-9X is going to be the backbone of the future EK fleet.


I guess I’m not totally convinced. A359 deliveries don’t even begin until 2024 so there are many years for them to alter their order. If the A350neo in 2025 comes to fruition, they might just decide to move to that platform over the next decade, reducing (or eliminating) the need for additional 777s.
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flee
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:53 am

seabosdca wrote:
The fact that all the A350s are -900s pretty much confirms that more 777X will be coming. There are a staggering number of 77Ws and 388s to replace over time, and the 777-9X is going to be the backbone of the future EK fleet.

Don't forget, EK is also retiring their 777s as they reach end of lease. So the 777X will definitely be coming to replace them. The question that remains is, how many? Will EK resize its fleet?
 
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BlueSky1976
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:57 am

seahawk wrote:
Well, the A350 comes with RR engines, which I can not see them ordering again soon.


...and yet not even 24 hours later.... BOOM! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

seahawk wrote:
[
And the single aisle A321 is inefficient when you want to use a high amount of premium seating.


Riiight.
JetBlue and American Airlines may disagree on that one, right there. In fact, it was American Airlines who replaced 767s with A321s on their premium-heavy transcontinental runs out of JFK.
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:25 am

BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Well, the A350 comes with RR engines, which I can not see them ordering again soon.


...and yet not even 24 hours later.... BOOM! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:


In the end this shows imho that it was less of a technical problem with the RR engines, than EK reevaluating their fleet needs. Which is good news for Airbus and RR.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:34 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
The fact that all the A350s are -900s pretty much confirms that more 777X will be coming. There are a staggering number of 77Ws and 388s to replace over time, and the 777-9X is going to be the backbone of the future EK fleet.


I guess I’m not totally convinced. A359 deliveries don’t even begin until 2024 so there are many years for them to alter their order. If the A350neo in 2025 comes to fruition, they might just decide to move to that platform over the next decade, reducing (or eliminating) the need for additional 777s.


As I see it, the A330-900s + A350-900s will be taking over some of the short haul flying that the 777Xs would otherwise be doing. So this order is inherently freeing up multiple 777Xs, which can then be taking over some A380 flying.
First to fly the 787-9
 
justloveplanes
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:47 am

seabosdca wrote:
The fact that all the A350s are -900s pretty much confirms that more 777X will be coming. There are a staggering number of 77Ws and 388s to replace over time, and the 777-9X is going to be the backbone of the future EK fleet.


Yes. If this order also replaces the 40 78J, then there is essentially 10 78J (capacity of 30 350 about the same as 30 78J) plus the capacity difference in 39 380 - 330 neo to account for. If they don't top up the 777x, this means a capacity cut (also possible). 20+ frames sounds about right.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:53 am

justloveplanes wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
The fact that all the A350s are -900s pretty much confirms that more 777X will be coming. There are a staggering number of 77Ws and 388s to replace over time, and the 777-9X is going to be the backbone of the future EK fleet.


Yes. If this order also replaces the 40 78J, then there is essentially 10 78J (capacity of 30 350 about the same as 30 78J) plus the capacity difference in 39 380 - 330 neo to account for. If they don't top up the 777x, this means a capacity cut (also possible). 20+ frames sounds about right.


They could use the capacity cut realistically.
 
olle
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:58 am

If A350-2000 comes 2025 with new more efficient engines will 777x be the next A346? Great plane but with a short window until the B773er arrived.
 
Miquel787
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:22 pm

Boeing will not sit on their hands till Airbus put the Ultrafan on the 350 in 2025...I guess Rolls would put it also on the 787..And GE will be not sitting still...Plenty of new action in the future..Boeing will reengin it.s Dreamliner..So let.s see what happens the coming years..The 777X will be the long haul plane for the coming years and Airbus has no answer yet..Let the competition do it.s work.
 
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flee
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:43 pm

Miquel787 wrote:
Boeing will not sit on their hands till Airbus put the Ultrafan on the 350 in 2025...I guess Rolls would put it also on the 787..And GE will be not sitting still...Plenty of new action in the future..Boeing will reengin it.s Dreamliner..So let.s see what happens the coming years..The 777X will be the long haul plane for the coming years and Airbus has no answer yet..Let the competition do it.s work.

The 777X has not had any direct competitor since launch but its sales are not at the same level as the 77W - so it is doubtful that the situation will improve very much in the next 3 or 4 years as airlines are averse to VLAs. Should the VLA market pick up, both Boeing and Airbus will have products to address demand. Airbus may have a slight advantage as its A350Neo will probably be ready with the RR UltraFan in 2025 and a small stretch (maybe additional 30-50 pax) can be developed relatively quickly.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:45 pm

Miquel787 wrote:
Boeing will not sit on their hands till Airbus put the Ultrafan on the 350 in 2025...I guess Rolls would put it also on the 787..And GE will be not sitting still...Plenty of new action in the future..Boeing will reengin it.s Dreamliner..So let.s see what happens the coming years..The 777X will be the long haul plane for the coming years and Airbus has no answer yet..Let the competition do it.s work.


But Airbus does have an answer to the 777X now. The A350neo. The Ultrafan is a scalable engine. Airbus can either stretch the A350 more, or scale it slightly larger, since the Beluga XL can take a fuselage roughly 1m larger in diameter than the current Beluga. That's a whole row of seating front to back.

But looking at the current sales numbers of Both the 777X and A5K, it's not exactly a lucrative market there yet.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:53 pm

Slug71 wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
Boeing will not sit on their hands till Airbus put the Ultrafan on the 350 in 2025...I guess Rolls would put it also on the 787..And GE will be not sitting still...Plenty of new action in the future..Boeing will reengin it.s Dreamliner..So let.s see what happens the coming years..The 777X will be the long haul plane for the coming years and Airbus has no answer yet..Let the competition do it.s work.


But Airbus does have an answer to the 777X now. The A350neo. The Ultrafan is a scalable engine. Airbus can either stretch the A350 more, or scale it slightly larger, since the Beluga XL can take a fuselage roughly 1m larger in diameter than the current Beluga. That's a whole row of seating front to back.

But looking at the current sales numbers of Both the 777X and A5K, it's not exactly a lucrative market there yet.

Do you mean to say the Beluga XL can take a fuselage roughly 1m longer, and not larger? Larger diameter fuselage does not add rows of seating front to back, but adds seats on the same row side-to-side.

If Airbus was to widen the A350 fuselage, that'd be a whole new airplane, with new certification etc. This is not going to happen anytime soon.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:22 pm

flee wrote:
The 777X has not had any direct competitor since launch but its sales are not at the same level as the 77W - so it is doubtful that the situation will improve very much in the next 3 or 4 years as airlines are averse to VLAs. Should the VLA market pick up, both Boeing and Airbus will have products to address demand. Airbus may have a slight advantage as its A350Neo will probably be ready with the RR UltraFan in 2025 and a small stretch (maybe additional 30-50 pax) can be developed relatively quickly.


Well if one is to compare the 77W sales at first delivery compared to the 777X before first delivery you would find that the 77W had 90 orders versus 326 orders for the 777X. That would be the most logical comparison. While I agree on the premise that airlines are averse to VLA's, with 787's and A350's offering more point to point, there at some point A388's that are in service will need to be replaced, QR and EK between them have 90 options on the 777X. I think its fair to say the 777X will have a good future, while it may not sell as many as the 77W there are still plenty of opportunities for Boeing to sell a decent number of frames
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:29 pm

flee wrote:
The 777X has not had any direct competitor since launch but its sales are not at the same level as the 77W - so it is doubtful that the situation will improve very much in the next 3 or 4 years as airlines are averse to VLAs.


Folks need to remember that the 777-9 is not a VLA. It is Exit-Limited to 495 passengers with five exit doors and I expect almost all, if not all, current customers will choose only four exit doors, making it Exit-Limited to 440: the same as the A330-900, A350-900, A350-1000 and 787-10. The cabin itself is less than three meters longer than the 777-300ER which means one extra row of Business Class and Premium Economy or three extra rows of Economy.

Also, Airbus and Boeing are loathe to offer models that directly compete on capacity and capability as that just invites the airlines to drive the sale price down. The current A350-1000 is a 1:1 replacement for the 777-300ER at 2+2+2 in Business, 2+4+2 in Premium Economy and 3+3+3 in Economy and Boeing sold some 500+ 777-300ERs in that configuration.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:08 pm

Well, with the A380 not in AB's lineup, they will be doing some things to adjust. Right now there is the A330, B787, A350, B777x competing in the WB sphere, with a fair amount of overlap. It will be interesting to watch how the market shapes out.

A lot will depend on how the B777x comes out - just meeting, at spec, or exceeding spec.

The 777W came to life exceeding spec and right on the sweet spot, no one saw it as being so successful when it launched. Can the 777X continue that?
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:15 pm

qf789 wrote:
Well if one is to compare the 77W sales at first delivery compared to the 777X before first delivery you would find that the 77W had 90 orders versus 326 orders for the 777X. That would be the most logical comparison. While I agree on the premise that airlines are averse to VLA's, with 787's and A350's offering more point to point, there at some point A388's that are in service will need to be replaced, QR and EK between them have 90 options on the 777X. I think its fair to say the 777X will have a good future, while it may not sell as many as the 77W there are still plenty of opportunities for Boeing to sell a decent number of frames

The current 777X order book is shaky - the ME3 orders are always shifting in the sand. There are also no orders from the US3.

As Airbus have found out, even firm contracted orders can disappear. This is quite worrying because until the aircraft are delivered and paid for, we cannot assume their orders are really firm. The 777X has still to enter flight testing and we will have to wait till the test results are in before we know what kind of plane it is. Until then, new orders will be slow in coming in....
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:06 pm

flee wrote:
As Airbus have found out, even firm contracted orders can disappear. This is quite worrying because until the aircraft are delivered and paid for, we cannot assume their orders are really firm.

Expect Airbus (and most likely Boeing) to start making escape clause much harder once the order is firmed up (if it's not already done). Fool me once... right?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:30 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Q wrote:
What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

"inn 380" the worlds real airport hotels.

"A380 to be sunk" threads in our future?

BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Well, the A350 comes with RR engines, which I can not see them ordering again soon.

...and yet not even 24 hours later.... BOOM! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

No longer "right since 2000", sigh.
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2175301
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:01 pm

flee wrote:
As Airbus have found out, even firm contracted orders can disappear. This is quite worrying because until the aircraft are delivered and paid for, we cannot assume their orders are really firm. The 777X has still to enter flight testing and we will have to wait till the test results are in before we know what kind of plane it is. Until then, new orders will be slow in coming in....


Except in this case I personally believe it was Airbus who wanted to end production of the A380 and cancel part of the order. RR apparently would also have been interested as reports are that they were loosing money on the engines too.. All indications I have is that EK wanted to receive all the A380's they had on firm order. They were willing to "go along" and play nice with the cancellation of part of the existing firm contracts (39 A380) and use the cancellation penalties from Airbus and possibly RR on other purchases from those companies.

The 20+16 order was not solid firm, as I understand it was contingent on an engine contract with RR - which did not happen.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:20 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
The fact that all the A350s are -900s pretty much confirms that more 777X will be coming. There are a staggering number of 77Ws and 388s to replace over time, and the 777-9X is going to be the backbone of the future EK fleet.


I guess I’m not totally convinced. A359 deliveries don’t even begin until 2024 so there are many years for them to alter their order. If the A350neo in 2025 comes to fruition, they might just decide to move to that platform over the next decade, reducing (or eliminating) the need for additional 777s.


Slightly OT (but not), do we really think RR has a realistic chance to hit time and performance numbers for the Ultrafan by 2025. Given the landscape ahead (the continued problems on multiple platforms currently), BREXIT, and loss of engine orders (IIRC a few of those canceled 380s were due to have RR onboard, no?, not to mention the EY 350s), is RR really capable of doing all they say with the Ultrafan? And if they aren't, or if the time frame is now 2030, what is to stop Boeing from telling GE to up the anti 10 years in on the 777-x.

Predictions about 787s vs 380s are 'easy'. Predictions about two very competitive aircraft that have minor points in the favor of each (777x and 350) are much more difficult and FAR more dependant on third parties. There is also the possibility as many have mentioned of a -10 for the 777. It will be interesting, if visually boring and unfortunately quite to the ears.
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VV
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:20 pm

Is A330-900's engine big enough for Emirates?
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:26 pm

VV wrote:
Is A330-900's engine big enough for Emirates?


Please continue to discuss topics covering the Airbus part here:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415517
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:47 pm

2175301 wrote:
All indications I have is that EK wanted to receive all the A380's they had on firm order. They were willing to "go along" and play nice with the cancellation of part of the existing firm contracts (39 A380) and use the cancellation penalties from Airbus and possibly RR on other purchases from those companies.


Which indications would those be? If Emirates was so keen, why didn't they firm up the additional 16 in the last year?

With the sums involved, I'm struggling to believe that Emirates was an unwilling party in this transaction to the point they'd forego their commitment to the 787-10. Emirates must have wanted this every bit as much as Airbus.
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:00 pm

scbriml wrote:
With the sums involved, I'm struggling to believe that Emirates was an unwilling party in this transaction to the point they'd forego their commitment to the 787-10. Emirates must have wanted this every bit as much as Airbus.


I am in agreement. I think Emirates traffic models are showing that over time they will not see the growth they have and might even be seeing a retraction. A fleet of 123 A380s will allow them to retire older frames as they reach their maintenance-cost thresholds while still leaving a substantial fleet available for those routes that can make best use of it.

The 115 777-9 will be able to replace the 136 777-300ERs and this is why I believe EK did not order any A350-1000s (though I expect they have model conversion rights to it).

The A350-900 and A330-300 will handle new regional and long-haul routes (the latter scaling to the 777-9 and A380-800 as appropriate).
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:08 pm

Stitch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
With the sums involved, I'm struggling to believe that Emirates was an unwilling party in this transaction to the point they'd forego their commitment to the 787-10. Emirates must have wanted this every bit as much as Airbus.


I am in agreement. I think Emirates traffic models are showing that over time they will not see the growth they have and might even be seeing a retraction. A fleet of 123 A380s will allow them to retire older frames as they reach their maintenance-cost thresholds while still leaving a substantial fleet available for those routes that can make best use of it.

The 115 777-9 will be able to replace the 136 777-300ERs and this is why I believe EK did not order any A350-1000s (though I expect they have model conversion rights to it).

The A350-900 and A330-300 will handle new regional and long-haul routes (the latter scaling to the 777-9 and A380-800 as appropriate).

Wow... I have nothing I could add. There era of EK always expanding is on pause. The size of fleets interests me. I am so curious about options.

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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:14 pm

Stitch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
With the sums involved, I'm struggling to believe that Emirates was an unwilling party in this transaction to the point they'd forego their commitment to the 787-10. Emirates must have wanted this every bit as much as Airbus.


I am in agreement. I think Emirates traffic models are showing that over time they will not see the growth they have and might even be seeing a retraction. A fleet of 123 A380s will allow them to retire older frames as they reach their maintenance-cost thresholds while still leaving a substantial fleet available for those routes that can make best use of it.

The 115 777-9 will be able to replace the 136 777-300ERs and this is why I believe EK did not order any A350-1000s (though I expect they have model conversion rights to it).

The A350-900 and A330-300 will handle new regional and long-haul routes (the latter scaling to the 777-9 and A380-800 as appropriate).


I tend to agree with you, a future setup could be A330-900, A350-900, 777-8 and 777-9. I would not rule out A350-1000 in the future.

I also expect 777-8/-9 to have similar cabin layouts in J like A380, so less seats. Have there been any announcements about the cabin so far?
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Stitch wrote:
scbriml wrote:
With the sums involved, I'm struggling to believe that Emirates was an unwilling party in this transaction to the point they'd forego their commitment to the 787-10. Emirates must have wanted this every bit as much as Airbus.


I am in agreement. I think Emirates traffic models are showing that over time they will not see the growth they have and might even be seeing a retraction. A fleet of 123 A380s will allow them to retire older frames as they reach their maintenance-cost thresholds while still leaving a substantial fleet available for those routes that can make best use of it.

The 115 777-9 will be able to replace the 136 777-300ERs and this is why I believe EK did not order any A350-1000s (though I expect they have model conversion rights to it).

The A350-900 and A330-300 will handle new regional and long-haul routes (the latter scaling to the 777-9 and A380-800 as appropriate).

Wow... I have nothing I could add. There era of EK always expanding is on pause. The size of fleets interests me. I am so curious about options.

Lightsaber


I feel like the death of the A380 is the capitulation of the Hub model that Emirate is using . I am not sure how Emirates survives other than on offering great service at cheaper prices than their competitors. The 777x and The A350-900 exist to kill routes that are the bread and butter of the Dubai hub.

I wonder if Emirates will resort to more point to point flights instead of maintaining the Dubai Hub. I am curious how this all pans out for DWC.
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
2175301 wrote:
All indications I have is that EK wanted to receive all the A380's they had on firm order. They were willing to "go along" and play nice with the cancellation of part of the existing firm contracts (39 A380) and use the cancellation penalties from Airbus and possibly RR on other purchases from those companies.


Which indications would those be? If Emirates was so keen, why didn't they firm up the additional 16 in the last year?

With the sums involved, I'm struggling to believe that Emirates was an unwilling party in this transaction to the point they'd forego their commitment to the 787-10. Emirates must have wanted this every bit as much as Airbus.


Probably more so. As I read the situation, Airbus clearly had the upper hand in the cancellation negotiations, forcing EK to backtrack on its 787-10 decision, which was the result of a long and thorough product analysis. Sorry, the A339 is not a natural choice for EK - heck, I don't think it wasn't even under consideration prior to EK needing a way out of its dead-end A380 orders. -ir
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bigjku
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:25 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Stitch wrote:

I am in agreement. I think Emirates traffic models are showing that over time they will not see the growth they have and might even be seeing a retraction. A fleet of 123 A380s will allow them to retire older frames as they reach their maintenance-cost thresholds while still leaving a substantial fleet available for those routes that can make best use of it.

The 115 777-9 will be able to replace the 136 777-300ERs and this is why I believe EK did not order any A350-1000s (though I expect they have model conversion rights to it).

The A350-900 and A330-300 will handle new regional and long-haul routes (the latter scaling to the 777-9 and A380-800 as appropriate).

Wow... I have nothing I could add. There era of EK always expanding is on pause. The size of fleets interests me. I am so curious about options.

Lightsaber


I feel like the death of the A380 is the capitulation of the Hub model that Emirate is using . I am not sure how Emirates survives other than on offering great service at cheaper prices than their competitors. The 777x and The A350-900 exist to kill routes that are the bread and butter of the Dubai hub.

I wonder if Emirates will resort to more point to point flights instead of maintaining the Dubai Hub. I am curious how this all pans out for DWC.


Hard to do point to point when one of your points (generally) is Dubai.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:30 pm

SQ22 wrote:
I also expect 777-8/-9 to have similar cabin layouts in J like A380, so less seats. Have there been any announcements about the cabin so far?


So far they have only noted that the two-class configuration will be 440 [49J | 391Y], which is 13 more than their two-class 777-300ERs at 427 [42J | 385Y].
 
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casinterest
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:31 pm

bigjku wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Wow... I have nothing I could add. There era of EK always expanding is on pause. The size of fleets interests me. I am so curious about options.

Lightsaber


I feel like the death of the A380 is the capitulation of the Hub model that Emirate is using . I am not sure how Emirates survives other than on offering great service at cheaper prices than their competitors. The 777x and The A350-900 exist to kill routes that are the bread and butter of the Dubai hub.

I wonder if Emirates will resort to more point to point flights instead of maintaining the Dubai Hub. I am curious how this all pans out for DWC.


Hard to do point to point when one of your points (generally) is Dubai.


Yes, but the A380 itself was the beast of the Hub spoke model that is envisioned for Dubai.

the 787, A350, A330Neo, 777x are all planes that basically speak to the point to point model , or hub model with lots of frequencies.

Emirates may go for frequency, but frequency in long haul flights loses it's luster when connecting flights can be 3-7 hours.
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osiris30
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:35 pm

IslandRob wrote:
scbriml wrote:
2175301 wrote:
All indications I have is that EK wanted to receive all the A380's they had on firm order. They were willing to "go along" and play nice with the cancellation of part of the existing firm contracts (39 A380) and use the cancellation penalties from Airbus and possibly RR on other purchases from those companies.


Which indications would those be? If Emirates was so keen, why didn't they firm up the additional 16 in the last year?

With the sums involved, I'm struggling to believe that Emirates was an unwilling party in this transaction to the point they'd forego their commitment to the 787-10. Emirates must have wanted this every bit as much as Airbus.


Probably more so. As I read the situation, Airbus clearly had the upper hand in the cancellation negotiations, forcing EK to backtrack on its 787-10 decision, which was the result of a long and thorough product analysis. Sorry, the A339 is not a natural choice for EK - heck, I don't think it wasn't even under consideration prior to EK needing a way out of its dead-end A380 orders. -ir


Airbus has *no* upper hand with EK. To suggest that is preposterous. EK means FAR more to Airbus than vice-versa. Here is how this went down from my reading of the tea leaves:

EK wanted to top up some 380s, but only if RR could give them a few more % on the engines. The 380 just isn't competitive unless it is full to the brim vs the new frames coming online. EK knew full well that without their order the 380 was dead. They also knew they had a FIRM order in place for a bunch of frames (aka a signed contract). EK was in the driver's seat here for sure. They got some great pricing from Airbus or they just keep their Boeing order and add to it.

There is no conceivable way you are doing to tell me that one of the largest airlines in the world, that had firm contracts with a supplier, was FORCED to do something that wasn't in their best interest by said supplier.
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:36 pm

casinterest wrote:
Yes, but the A380 itself was the beast of the Hub spoke model that is envisioned for Dubai. The 787, A350, A330Neo, 777x are all planes that basically speak to the point to point model , or hub model with lots of frequencies.


The "old" Emirates expansion model was start with a 777-200LR then scale to a 777-300ER (payload-restricted, if necessary) and then scale to an A380-800.

I expect them to follow a similar model going forward, just now with the A350-900/777-8 to the 777-9 to the A380-800.

The A330-900 in 251,000kg form will likely fill the role the A330-200 did for Emirates in serving smaller cities that never grew to the point of needing a 777-300ER. They could, however, grow to see an A350-900 swap in.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:45 pm

Stitch wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Yes, but the A380 itself was the beast of the Hub spoke model that is envisioned for Dubai. The 787, A350, A330Neo, 777x are all planes that basically speak to the point to point model , or hub model with lots of frequencies.


The "old" Emirates expansion model was start with a 777-200LR then scale to a 777-300ER (payload-restricted, if necessary) and then scale to an A380-800.

I expect them to follow a similar model going forward, just now with the A350-900/777-8 to the 777-9 to the A380-800.

The A330-900 in 251,000kg form will likely fill the role the A330-200 did for Emirates in serving smaller cities that never grew to the point of needing a 777-300ER. They could, however, grow to see an A350-900 swap in.


Emirates can fill the role, but will they need to? the problem is that all the new linups have the economy and size to make the flights direct out of the European , Asian, and African hubs. With the A32xneo and 737 max, many of the big carriers and their partners around the world will be able to aggregate needed traffic into their hubs to fly direct routes for secondary cities that cannot fill the wide-bodies on their own. I think DWC is being overbuilt for what it will eventually handle.
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IslandRob
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:08 pm

osiris30 wrote:
IslandRob wrote:
There is no conceivable way you are doing to tell me that one of the largest airlines in the world, that had firm contracts with a supplier, was FORCED to do something that wasn't in their best interest by said supplier.


Actually, there is a conceivable way - in fact, I've already told you exactly that.

As I see it, EK couldn't coerce RR into whipping the T900 into satisfactory shape, and further recognized that, without additional life-line orders, the A380 was a goner. Therefore, not wishing to pour more money into a goner, EK was desperate to cancel as many of its existing A380 orders as possible. Airbus said okay, but here are the terms: walk away from your 787-10 MOU and instead order some A359s and A339s. EK agreed, despite its earlier conclusion that, for EK's regional fleet, the 787-10 was the preferred airliner.

I'm not saying that, under the circumstances, EK didn't cut the best deal. Just that EK would likely have gone a different direction if it weren't for all those A380 orders hanging around its neck. -ir
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:31 pm

osiris30 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
The fact that all the A350s are -900s pretty much confirms that more 777X will be coming. There are a staggering number of 77Ws and 388s to replace over time, and the 777-9X is going to be the backbone of the future EK fleet.


I guess I’m not totally convinced. A359 deliveries don’t even begin until 2024 so there are many years for them to alter their order. If the A350neo in 2025 comes to fruition, they might just decide to move to that platform over the next decade, reducing (or eliminating) the need for additional 777s.


Slightly OT (but not), do we really think RR has a realistic chance to hit time and performance numbers for the Ultrafan by 2025. Given the landscape ahead (the continued problems on multiple platforms currently), BREXIT, and loss of engine orders (IIRC a few of those canceled 380s were due to have RR onboard, no?, not to mention the EY 350s), is RR really capable of doing all they say with the Ultrafan? And if they aren't, or if the time frame is now 2030, what is to stop Boeing from telling GE to up the anti 10 years in on the 777-x.

Predictions about 787s vs 380s are 'easy'. Predictions about two very competitive aircraft that have minor points in the favor of each (777x and 350) are much more difficult and FAR more dependant on third parties. There is also the possibility as many have mentioned of a -10 for the 777. It will be interesting, if visually boring and unfortunately quite to the ears.


All indications from are over the last couple of years are that it is very much on track for a 2025 EIS.
 
Arion640
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:38 pm

Wait a few months and a Tim Clarke interview video will come out on youtube explaining what changed. As usual, he’ll beautifully justify it.

One of his previous ones:

https://youtu.be/Cj0ZGxB_1F0
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jeffrey0032j
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:01 pm

IslandRob wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
IslandRob wrote:
There is no conceivable way you are doing to tell me that one of the largest airlines in the world, that had firm contracts with a supplier, was FORCED to do something that wasn't in their best interest by said supplier.


Actually, there is a conceivable way - in fact, I've already told you exactly that.

As I see it, EK couldn't coerce RR into whipping the T900 into satisfactory shape, and further recognized that, without additional life-line orders, the A380 was a goner. Therefore, not wishing to pour more money into a goner, EK was desperate to cancel as many of its existing A380 orders as possible. Airbus said okay, but here are the terms: walk away from your 787-10 MOU and instead order some A359s and A339s. EK agreed, despite its earlier conclusion that, for EK's regional fleet, the 787-10 was the preferred airliner.

I'm not saying that, under the circumstances, EK didn't cut the best deal. Just that EK would likely have gone a different direction if it weren't for all those A380 orders hanging around its neck. -ir

They can ask EK to walk away from Boeing's MOU and buy theirs, but there is no legal obligation for EK to comply. That is an EK decision to make.

We will see what happens to the EK Boeing orders when they are done with negotiating with Boeing.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:59 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
flee wrote:
As Airbus have found out, even firm contracted orders can disappear. This is quite worrying because until the aircraft are delivered and paid for, we cannot assume their orders are really firm.

Expect Airbus (and most likely Boeing) to start making escape clause much harder once the order is firmed up (if it's not already done). Fool me once... right?

The stricter the clauses, the more an airline waits to firm other contracts before signing. We should take a step back and realize why EK and EY were given the terms they we're.

If terms become stricter, small airlines will place small near term orders. The flexibility was to have airlines commit to longer term orders which means a larger sale.

EY and EK kept to their 'firm' orders for the A333 and 77W. For the A346, Airbus was in violation of contract, yet EK took all A345 and EY all A345/A346.
EY took all firm A380. During a downturn, both Boeing and Airbus offered less firm sales to EK and EY to keep their lines going.

Most of today's firm orders in the 1980s would be called options. From what I see, today's firm orders cost about the same (as a percentage of Airframe sales price). For the early payments are for risk on long lead items contracts.

Today vendors receive a guarantee of 2.5 years of orders at the current production, unless a ramp down contract is signed. Hence why I believe 2019, 2020, and 50% of 2021 we're already committed to for the A380. So Airbus has to buy those parts. In return,. parts are discounted 20% or more by vendors.

I'll give an engine example. I know coffee a bucket of parts for the CFM-56 for say (I'm altering the numbers to not violate an NDA):
1. Cost to CFM to make an engine:. $100,000
2. Cost for vendors to make: $104,000
3. Cost for vendor to overhaul: $30,000
4. Fee charged large airlines (best discounts) to overhaul: $90,000. Typically two overhauls per part or $116,000 profit off $280,000 in sales.
5. Cost if sold as spare parts:. $200,000.
6. Cost CFM charges for spare parts:. $300,000
The issue with EK is many parts do not need overhaul during their ownership or maybe one engine overhaul.

Also remember economies of scale. With today's automation, setting up for 2x the production run means that parts cost 87% as much (each). Now I intentionally picked an example where the economy of scale clauses in the contracts overshot the production savings. But parts still bought in quantity (quantity defined as 50+ per year) are sold at the peak or near peak discounts. So the JT8D/MD-80 vendors were held to pricing until, IIRC, about 2014 when AA declined to renew the service contracts.

The reality is automation only rewards volume. To achieve volume, airframers must sell at risk and take substantial write downs in bad recessions due to vendor penalties.

By taking risk on the A320NEO, Airbus has had huge success. Same with the 737 MAX. CFM had to lean forward on production costs to keep the exclusive. Without not so firm sales, neither would be where they are now. Same with the A380, 77W, A330, 787, and A350.

Firming penalty clauses cuts both ways. The 787 would have bankrupted Boeing on old school clauses. The delays on the A350 wouldn't have been allowed and the A330NEO would have come early instead of the A350 XWB.

Hopefully I've given an insight. E.g., old school clauses would have had EK order maybe 6 A380. Would they have? They would have been handed over dirt cheap due to all the delay penalties. EK would have ordered in small batches. Small enough in 2009, Airbus would have faced a shut the line down decision.

Lightsaber
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YellowJ
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:24 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Well, the A350 comes with RR engines, which I can not see them ordering again soon.


...and yet not even 24 hours later.... BOOM! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

seahawk wrote:
[
And the single aisle A321 is inefficient when you want to use a high amount of premium seating.


Riiight.
JetBlue and American Airlines may disagree on that one, right there. In fact, it was American Airlines who replaced 767s with A321s on their premium-heavy transcontinental runs out of JFK.


While reducing premium seats in AA case. What part of what he said was incorrect? Jetblue has nothing else to use, so isn't applicable.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:44 pm

YellowJ wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Well, the A350 comes with RR engines, which I can not see them ordering again soon.


...and yet not even 24 hours later.... BOOM! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

seahawk wrote:
[
And the single aisle A321 is inefficient when you want to use a high amount of premium seating.


Riiight.
JetBlue and American Airlines may disagree on that one, right there. In fact, it was American Airlines who replaced 767s with A321s on their premium-heavy transcontinental runs out of JFK.


While reducing premium seats in AA case. What part of what he said was incorrect? Jetblue has nothing else to use, so isn't applicable.


AA A321 transcon is one of the most premium heavy configurations in existence with 10F / 20J / 72Y and more premium heavy than the 767 they replaced.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:27 am

SQ22 wrote:

I tend to agree with you, a future setup could be A330-900, A350-900, 777-8 and 777-9. I would not rule out A350-1000 in the future.



If AB launched a HGW version of A350-1000 (potentially for QF's Project Sunrise) then I can very well see EK ordering some of them as well, and upgauging their 778s to 779.

Either way, once the 77W and the A380s are gone, they'll probably end up with a 4 type fleet of A339, A359, 778 & 778, or A339, A359, A35K and 779. That's not a bad place to be IMO and provides a lot of flexibility whilst still preserving a lot of commonality.
 
jagraham
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:36 am

Stitch wrote:
SQ22 wrote:
I also expect 777-8/-9 to have similar cabin layouts in J like A380, so less seats. Have there been any announcements about the cabin so far?


So far they have only noted that the two-class configuration will be 440 [49J | 391Y], which is 13 more than their two-class 777-300ERs at 427 [42J | 385Y].


EKs 77Ws have 2-3-2 business class. Versus 1-2-1 on the A380.

Perhaps the 779 will be outfitted A380 style (since they have the floor area) versus 77W style.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:51 am

I will be very curious to see how the 339s are financed. I can't imagine that EK wants to hold on to them for the long term, but resale value is likely to be a challenge (which affects either conventional or lease financing).

I'm quite surprised that the 339 was included in the order and can only imagine that near-term capacity needs in the absence of either planned A380 deliveries or available A350 slots drove it.

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