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Polot
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:58 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Back to EK, what use is there for the A350 when they already have the B778/B779 planned?
Also, what use is there for A330neo's?



Airbus says the A330ceo beats the A330neo and the A350 on fuel burn per seat up to 2 hours. Then the A330neo is best between 2 and 4 hours. Somewhere before the 5th hour the A350 becomes best and gets better as the stage length gets longer.

The middle east to MAN is 7 hours. The A350 beats the A330neo, but not by a lot. Everywhere on the continent, the A330neo would be equal to or better than the A350 on fuel burn. That's before purchase price.

So if EK is not going to take its last 36 A380s but wants to do something with the deposits, and wants to save fuel going to Europe, most of Africa, and up to India, and doesn't need to move 77W passenger loads, then the A339 is best. Better than the A350 for under 7 hours, especially after purchase price is factored in. And if they need to move lots of cargo, send a 77W.

For the 787 fans, yes the 787 is better. By about 5% for the 789. Even more for the 78J. But the A339 vs 789 comparison is not so good as to outweigh the outstanding deposits. If EK feels they can consistently sell more than 300 tickets per day to most European cities, then firm up the 78J order. Otherwise, salvage the deposits on A339s.


As said earlier, with jet fuel at 600 USD per ton, and the A380 at firesale pricing, fuel efficiency is not as relevant.
An A380's monthly fuel bill would be around 3 M USD, the monthly lease rate about 1.6 M USD.
A B779's monthly fuel bill would be about 1.7M USD and the monthly lease about 1.5 M USD.

As you can see, fuel efficiency is not everything. Capital cost is also a very relevant factor and the A380 excels in it.

Huh? By your own example with your numbers that means even in low fuel environment the 777X would be 1.4M USD cheaper to operate a month (which would only grow if fuel gets more expensive), and the monthly lease of a 777X is still cheaper despite “firesale” A380 pricing. By spending just 0.4M a month more you are flying two 777X’s instead of just one A380. Your example is suppose to show a benefit of the A380?
 
jagraham
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:01 pm

I believe that EK is coming to realize that they need some smaller planes than 777s
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:18 pm

jagraham wrote:
I believe that EK is coming to realize that they need some smaller planes than 777s


They supposedly came to that realization in 2017 when they held an RFP between the 787-10 and A350-900.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:16 pm

Polot wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
jagraham wrote:


Airbus says the A330ceo beats the A330neo and the A350 on fuel burn per seat up to 2 hours. Then the A330neo is best between 2 and 4 hours. Somewhere before the 5th hour the A350 becomes best and gets better as the stage length gets longer.

The middle east to MAN is 7 hours. The A350 beats the A330neo, but not by a lot. Everywhere on the continent, the A330neo would be equal to or better than the A350 on fuel burn. That's before purchase price.

So if EK is not going to take its last 36 A380s but wants to do something with the deposits, and wants to save fuel going to Europe, most of Africa, and up to India, and doesn't need to move 77W passenger loads, then the A339 is best. Better than the A350 for under 7 hours, especially after purchase price is factored in. And if they need to move lots of cargo, send a 77W.

For the 787 fans, yes the 787 is better. By about 5% for the 789. Even more for the 78J. But the A339 vs 789 comparison is not so good as to outweigh the outstanding deposits. If EK feels they can consistently sell more than 300 tickets per day to most European cities, then firm up the 78J order. Otherwise, salvage the deposits on A339s.


As said earlier, with jet fuel at 600 USD per ton, and the A380 at firesale pricing, fuel efficiency is not as relevant.
An A380's monthly fuel bill would be around 3 M USD, the monthly lease rate about 1.6 M USD.
A B779's monthly fuel bill would be about 1.7M USD and the monthly lease about 1.5 M USD.

As you can see, fuel efficiency is not everything. Capital cost is also a very relevant factor and the A380 excels in it.

Huh? By your own example with your numbers that means even in low fuel environment the 777X would be 1.4M USD cheaper to operate a month (which would only grow if fuel gets more expensive), and the monthly lease of a 777X is still cheaper despite “firesale” A380 pricing. By spending just 0.4M a month more you are flying two 777X’s instead of just one A380. Your example is suppose to show a benefit of the A380?

Not only that, one can add partial flights per week or substitute in a 787 or A350 for demand if two 779s are too much. There are very few airports so slit constrained. Yes, DXB is there, but first shuffle low profit routes around.

Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:30 pm

musman9853 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
First of all, there is no chance in hell that Airbus is going to give EK the benefit of ordering the A350 on loose terms and certainly not at the expense of the A380.
EK humiliated Airbus with the cancellation of 70 A350's back in 2014 and again by ordering the B777X and again with the B787-10.
That is not happening again.

Second, it's too late for EY to cancel the A350 now. The first units already entered production.
Airbus will expect EY to fulfill the commitment, and orders are not transferable to other airlines unless EY is taken over by EK for instance.
Airbus is sitting on a comfortable backlog of 750 firm A350 orders worth 6 years of production.
If EY cancels the A350 order, they can easily open up the slots for other carriers. Several carriers would be happy to take early A350's.
Sure, EY over-ordered but that's hardly Airbus' problem. If EY is serious about cancelling A350's, Airbus will expect EY to cancel equal numbers of Boeing orders between the B787 and B777X.

Back to EK, what use is there for the A350 when they already have the B778/B779 planned?
Also, what use is there for A330neo's?

Everyone around here talking about the per seat fuel efficiency of the A380 vs twins as if oil was at 200 USD per barrel.
Fuel is cheap, the A380 is cheap to buy. At these fuel prices it actually doesn't make sense to splash money on expensive A350's or B777X's.
Look at the thread title, talk about opposite wisdom.
In fact at these fuel prices, B737NG, A320Ceo, B767's, A330CEO, B77W, B748i, A388 are the most attractive propositions, this is why we see so many end of the lines being ordered right and left. Not the shiny B737 Max, A320neo, B787's, A330neo's, A350's or B777X's.



airbus can't make EY or EK cancel any boeing planes and vice versa. also, the a380 is more expensive than a a350 or a 77x or a 787. And there's been far more MAX, 787, a350s etc ordered over their older generation counterparts.

Waterbomber, there is a reason executives are rotated periodically. Airbus needs to be managed for profit, not a perceived humiliation because Airbus changed a design the opposite way EK asked for.

EK is a customer Airbus cannot afford to loose. If one thing is clear, they bid Airbus and Boeing against each other with no remorse. The contracts must be independent per various international trade agreements.

What are the cancelation penalties for EK and EY,? EY has certainly differed as much as possible. The first examples look to have to be accepted by EY, but they are doing white tails. They are delaying. You had better believe if EY cannot sell, ASB's carpet issues to delay acceptance will be put to shame. Plus a relationship will be soured.

There is a win-win here. Cut A380 losses, transfer the A350s to a customer who buys a lot, and come to terms.

The shiney new cannot be ordered as there are no near term slots. That is why WN is leasing MAX. Aviation week has a good article (I try to add a link in a few minutes) on how casting yeild on new parts is only 50% to 60% or so versus 80%+ for mature engines. The LEAP went from a single stage turbine to two stages and increased production.

The limit on new engine production is the turbine blades. Everyone is struggling as it takes 5 to 10 years to optimize a casting process. The same is true for engine casings. Casting is an art where some science on the cooling helps.

Lightsaber

Late edit, link on investment casting being the weak link on new engine production:
http://m.aviationweek.com/future-aerosp ... -years-old

Put this way, for a CFM-56-5/7 production, CFM needed to produce about 1900 sets for production and a greater quantity for the refurbishment market (their #1 profit spare part). About 2800 sets per year (a SWAG I admit) for spares. Maybe 3,500.

CFM production winding down frees up those 1900 sets. But new production needs 6,000 sets of turbine blades (bad yeild and twice as many blades). So a supply chain that could do 5,000 to 6,000 sets is being asked to do 8,800+ sets where yield will drop that quickly to 7,000.

Pratt has a casting shop not mentioned in the link. They even make CFM-56 replacement blades (Pratt certified, so competing, not counterfeit). But that shop is at its limit too.

New materials drop yeild 10% usually. There have been exceptions, of course.

Lightsaber
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7BOEING7
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:10 pm

ArtV wrote:

Whoa....
QF (Alan Joyce) announced in August 2016 that QF was not going to be taking up its remaining 8 A380's on order as there was no room in its fleet plans for them. The only recent activity was the formal cancellation by QF (I suspect they kept the order technically "alive" until now was to use the deposits against other potential aircraft - ie, Project Sunrise).
EK seems to be following QF more than QF following EK (...if you really wanted to make an analogy, that is).


I think this whole thing is just AB cleaning up the order book prior to termination (i.e. previous Hong Kong Express 10 "order" & Virgin 6+6 "order"-- all in the last year).

I don't think QF had/has any deposits left to be concerned about -- therefore no requirement to buy other AB products.

I think AB is also trying to get EK to decide what they are going to do with the 20+16 "order" which being contingent probably has no non-refunable deposits -- therefore no requirement to buy other AB products.

I think there is also some possibly this has to do with the 30+/- airplanes left from the 50 "order" as EK seems to be dragging their heels when it comes to delivery lately.

My 2 cents.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:43 pm

Just for information, investment casting might be familiar to others as 'lost wax'. Wikipedia has a good non-technical discussion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_casting
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:46 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Just for information, investment casting might be familiar to others as 'lost wax'. Wikipedia has a good non-technical discussion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_casting


Good catch. I'm one of those. When I read 'investment casting', I immediately pictured stock traders 'making it rain', over lunch at the local dancing parlour.
What the...?
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:58 pm

Polot wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
jagraham wrote:


Airbus says the A330ceo beats the A330neo and the A350 on fuel burn per seat up to 2 hours. Then the A330neo is best between 2 and 4 hours. Somewhere before the 5th hour the A350 becomes best and gets better as the stage length gets longer.

The middle east to MAN is 7 hours. The A350 beats the A330neo, but not by a lot. Everywhere on the continent, the A330neo would be equal to or better than the A350 on fuel burn. That's before purchase price.

So if EK is not going to take its last 36 A380s but wants to do something with the deposits, and wants to save fuel going to Europe, most of Africa, and up to India, and doesn't need to move 77W passenger loads, then the A339 is best. Better than the A350 for under 7 hours, especially after purchase price is factored in. And if they need to move lots of cargo, send a 77W.

For the 787 fans, yes the 787 is better. By about 5% for the 789. Even more for the 78J. But the A339 vs 789 comparison is not so good as to outweigh the outstanding deposits. If EK feels they can consistently sell more than 300 tickets per day to most European cities, then firm up the 78J order. Otherwise, salvage the deposits on A339s.


As said earlier, with jet fuel at 600 USD per ton, and the A380 at firesale pricing, fuel efficiency is not as relevant.
An A380's monthly fuel bill would be around 3 M USD, the monthly lease rate about 1.6 M USD.
A B779's monthly fuel bill would be about 1.7M USD and the monthly lease about 1.5 M USD.

As you can see, fuel efficiency is not everything. Capital cost is also a very relevant factor and the A380 excels in it.

Huh? By your own example with your numbers that means even in low fuel environment the 777X would be 1.4M USD cheaper to operate a month (which would only grow if fuel gets more expensive), and the monthly lease of a 777X is still cheaper despite “firesale” A380 pricing. By spending just 0.4M a month more you are flying two 777X’s instead of just one A380. Your example is suppose to show a benefit of the A380?


No maintenance discussion either, maintaining 4 RR engines vs 2 GE-90s should be a wash to advantage GE-90, as EK is quite silent on the GE-90 reliability (staying on wing in the hot, blowing sand DXB), wasn't loudly mumbling about the EA engines could be pointing to the unhappiness with RR is not about efficiency but with maintenance.

Right now EK is probably 80% GE & Engine Alliance. They may be assessing keeping the EA 380's longer but not taking additional RR 380's.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:00 pm

Jens Flottau at Aviation Week has weighed in with the opinion that "Airbus Should Accept Reality And End The A380 Program": http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 9d5693c5f7

Just before the Boeing 747 celebrated the 50th anniversary of its first flight, Airbus put out a regulatory filing stating that it is in “commercial discussions” with Emirates regarding the A380 order it placed one year ago. The phrase could mean many things but boils down to: Emirates (or Airbus) may decide to scrap the deal.

Ultimately, the termination of the program would probably be in the best interest of both the manufacturer and the airline.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:41 pm

I have little doubt that the writing is on the wall regarding the future of the 380. I think all that's left is working out the details. My guess it will be announced before Paris, where they will have a big 380 farewell presentation.
What the...?
 
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IslandRob
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:55 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
I have little doubt that the writing is on the wall regarding the future of the 380. I think all that's left is working out the details. My guess it will be announced before Paris, where they will have a big 380 farewell presentation.


Yeah, hard not to notice the uncanny silence from Airbus regarding the widespread rumors that the A380 program is on the verge of shutdown. If the rumors were false, I'd expect Airbus to refute them, lest they become self-fulfilling prophecies. -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
ScottB
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:10 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Airbus could take on some risk and offer EK to lease the A380's directly from them. This could make the A380 profitable for Airbus and easier to remarket as well.
Airbus Asset Management does leases even if it's not their main business and they try to avoid competing with other lessors on new aircraft leases.
There is risk but they can for instance work out a strongly depreciating lease rate, so that they can .

Conversion to A350 is unnecessary and the A330neo will do just fine without a big EK order. In fact, quick availability of the A330neo will vanish as a sales argument if an A380 order is converted to this model.

The smart thing is to keep the A380 deals in place, give them a good deal on financing of those contingent to converting their B787-10 order to the A339. 2 birds with one stone.


How does this work well for Airbus? They don't have access to unlimited capital (well, they sort of do through their governments but that's another can of worms) and I cannot see how they make the product more appealing to EK by charging a higher lease rate (that's how you "quickly depreciate the production cost and reduce the risk") or why they want to take the risk of being stuck with 12-year-old frames with essentially zero secondary market in ~2030.

You have the tail wagging the dog here. Airframers do lease deals to help move products on which they're making good margins. Airbus has better things to do with its capital than parking it in A380s which are being sold at a loss to keep the line open.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
It would be a huge mistake for Airbus to stop A380 production to focus on the A350.
The A350 has its own backlog and it's huge.
Any A380 sale, even at the same price as an A350, is a sale. It will take more to build an A380 that an A350, but trends today do not mean anything in 5 years. Heck, we were supposed to be at 200 USD a barrel of oil by now according to big shot anaylysts, but look where we are.


No, just no. If Airbus is losing money on manufacturing the A380, and they can't make a plausible business case in which the A380 becomes solidly profitable, there's no reason for them to keep making the A380 -- they're just throwing good money after bad. It is much, much better for them to sell more A350s at a profit even if it already has a huge backlog and they can use the resources currently devoted to the A380 (real estate, manufacturing labor, aircraft designers, etc.) for more profitable product lines and to pursue future product development.

The large A350 backlog is just as much an opportunity as it is a problem: they have the option of increasing production rate which would help to drive down production cost and allow them to better compete with the 787 and 777X in sales campaigns.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
First of all, there is no chance in hell that Airbus is going to give EK the benefit of ordering the A350 on loose terms and certainly not at the expense of the A380.
EK humiliated Airbus with the cancellation of 70 A350's back in 2014 and again by ordering the B777X and again with the B787-10.
That is not happening again.


Whether or not EK's public snub of the A350 was embarrassing, it absolutely makes sense for Airbus to allow EK to walk away from the A380 order if it means greater long-term profits. "Digestible" losses are still losses and the A350 prints money for Airbus.

I think it is entirely possible, if not likely that Airbus has approached EK about the balance of their order, rather than the other way around, in light of the fact that the supplemental order for 20+16 seems to be in jeopardy. That order, as well as the reduction in production to six frames annually, has been seen as the lifeline to keep the A380 going until technologies and the market are ready for an A380NG/neo; absent that order, it may very well be better for Airbus to wind down production sooner rather than later. If "digestible losses" are in the neighborhood of $50 million per frame as has been speculated, we're talking about Airbus eating losses of a billion-and-a-half dollars on the rest of EK's firm order. There are better things for Airbus to do with that money.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:46 am

seahawk wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
jagraham wrote:


Airbus says the A330ceo beats the A330neo and the A350 on fuel burn per seat up to 2 hours. Then the A330neo is best between 2 and 4 hours. Somewhere before the 5th hour the A350 becomes best and gets better as the stage length gets longer.

The middle east to MAN is 7 hours. The A350 beats the A330neo, but not by a lot. Everywhere on the continent, the A330neo would be equal to or better than the A350 on fuel burn. That's before purchase price.

So if EK is not going to take its last 36 A380s but wants to do something with the deposits, and wants to save fuel going to Europe, most of Africa, and up to India, and doesn't need to move 77W passenger loads, then the A339 is best. Better than the A350 for under 7 hours, especially after purchase price is factored in. And if they need to move lots of cargo, send a 77W.

For the 787 fans, yes the 787 is better. By about 5% for the 789. Even more for the 78J. But the A339 vs 789 comparison is not so good as to outweigh the outstanding deposits. If EK feels they can consistently sell more than 300 tickets per day to most European cities, then firm up the 78J order. Otherwise, salvage the deposits on A339s.


As said earlier, with jet fuel at 600 USD per ton, and the A380 at firesale pricing, fuel efficiency is not as relevant.
An A380's monthly fuel bill would be around 3 M USD, the monthly lease rate about 1.6 M USD.
A B779's monthly fuel bill would be about 1.7M USD and the monthly lease about 1.5 M USD.

As you can see, fuel efficiency is not everything. Capital cost is also a very relevant factor and the A380 excels in it.


You buy a plane for 12-20 years. Want to bet on fuel prices staying low during that time?


Fuel prices are expected to stay low longterm. Of course anything can change/fluctuate. But with more and more electric vehicles coming to market and a big push for electric power (and renewable energy) in general, oil will have to be competitive.
 
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flee
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:46 am

Airbus will need to stop bleeding cash caused by the A380 - this cash will better used to develop a competitor to the Boeing NMA.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:59 am

IslandRob wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
I have little doubt that the writing is on the wall regarding the future of the 380. I think all that's left is working out the details. My guess it will be announced before Paris, where they will have a big 380 farewell presentation.


Yeah, hard not to notice the uncanny silence from Airbus regarding the widespread rumors that the A380 program is on the verge of shutdown. If the rumors were false, I'd expect Airbus to refute them, lest they become self-fulfilling prophecies. -ir


I'm sure all options are on the table and all options will be gone over with a fine-tooth comb. These discussions are never public. The OP was more than likely never meant to be public.
The cleaning of the order books is long overdue. QF not taking the rest of their order has been known for a long time.

Just hearsay, but I was talking to a coworker (who also works for another company in this type of business) this weekend who said there is talk of a NEO.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:02 am

flee wrote:
Airbus will need to stop bleeding cash caused by the A380 - this cash will better used to develop a competitor to the Boeing NMA.


Wrong thread for this discussion.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:05 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Just for information, investment casting might be familiar to others as 'lost wax'. Wikipedia has a good non-technical discussion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_casting


thanks for this.
I was like: "Lightsaber, what the hell?"
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:00 am

Slug71 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

As said earlier, with jet fuel at 600 USD per ton, and the A380 at firesale pricing, fuel efficiency is not as relevant.
An A380's monthly fuel bill would be around 3 M USD, the monthly lease rate about 1.6 M USD.
A B779's monthly fuel bill would be about 1.7M USD and the monthly lease about 1.5 M USD.

As you can see, fuel efficiency is not everything. Capital cost is also a very relevant factor and the A380 excels in it.


You buy a plane for 12-20 years. Want to bet on fuel prices staying low during that time?


Fuel prices are expected to stay low longterm. Of course anything can change/fluctuate. But with more and more electric vehicles coming to market and a big push for electric power (and renewable energy) in general, oil will have to be competitive.


But the A380 does not need a huge increase to become even more uncompetitive. We already know that it needs high load factors (over 80% to brake even) and we also know that a 787 has lower CASM. And for Airbus it can not be a good solution to have to sell this big plane with 4 engines for the the same price as Boeing can ask for a 777-9.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:39 am

seahawk wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

You buy a plane for 12-20 years. Want to bet on fuel prices staying low during that time?


Fuel prices are expected to stay low longterm. Of course anything can change/fluctuate. But with more and more electric vehicles coming to market and a big push for electric power (and renewable energy) in general, oil will have to be competitive.


But the A380 does not need a huge increase to become even more uncompetitive. We already know that it needs high load factors (over 80% to brake even) and we also know that a 787 has lower CASM. And for Airbus it can not be a good solution to have to sell this big plane with 4 engines for the the same price as Boeing can ask for a 777-9.


The A380 can carry almost twice as many people as a 777-9 depending on the configuration. The analogy that the 777-9 is a A380 replacement/competitor is just not true and needs to stop. They are no where in the same class. The 777X is a mere upgrade to the 777.
In most cases, the A380 does not have an issue with load factors either.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:06 am

Slug71 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Slug71 wrote:

Fuel prices are expected to stay low longterm. Of course anything can change/fluctuate. But with more and more electric vehicles coming to market and a big push for electric power (and renewable energy) in general, oil will have to be competitive.


But the A380 does not need a huge increase to become even more uncompetitive. We already know that it needs high load factors (over 80% to brake even) and we also know that a 787 has lower CASM. And for Airbus it can not be a good solution to have to sell this big plane with 4 engines for the the same price as Boeing can ask for a 777-9.


The A380 can carry almost twice as many people as a 777-9 depending on the configuration. The analogy that the 777-9 is a A380 replacement/competitor is just not true and needs to stop. They are no where in the same class. The 777X is a mere upgrade to the 777.
.


No it doesn't, the fact that there are countless 77Ws, most of which have a healthy proportion of premium seats, seating over 350, yet no A380 in existance has over 650 seats (heck most have less than 550 seats ) should show how stupid this statement is, and a 779 will be slightly longer than even that.

And frankly regardless of what arbitrary uh, "class" the A380, the airlines have spoken on how irreplaceable and competitive it truly is with their wallets (i.e not at all)
Last edited by JustSomeDood on Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
sibibom
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:16 am

Emirates is one airline that makes A380 work wonderfully in its network. When A380 goes out, it will affect other fleet too, everything will need to be proportionally smaller than what it is. If 500 odd people get in LHR, they go everywhere in the network, but if you have only 370 seats, remember the next flight will have lower passengers connecting. And no EK can't increase frequency, cos there are no slots. Which is why they really insisted on A380neo. However they will have to pay for it too.

Plus the amenities of A380 and B777 are not comparable. Will 777 business class have direct aisle access like A380? Will it have a bar? A shower? It's these things that draw people to Emirates.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:23 am

Does it work wonderfully when you look at the yield management side? Does it still work wonderfully when other airlines get 787 and 777-9s that will have lower CASM and will allow them to offer direct connections skipping the stop in DXB? In the end it does not matter how many passengers you fly, but how much money you make doing so. A fleet of 777-9 + 787 + 797 will be perfect for EK.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:24 am

Slug71 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Slug71 wrote:

Fuel prices are expected to stay low longterm. Of course anything can change/fluctuate. But with more and more electric vehicles coming to market and a big push for electric power (and renewable energy) in general, oil will have to be competitive.


But the A380 does not need a huge increase to become even more uncompetitive. We already know that it needs high load factors (over 80% to brake even) and we also know that a 787 has lower CASM. And for Airbus it can not be a good solution to have to sell this big plane with 4 engines for the the same price as Boeing can ask for a 777-9.


The A380 can carry almost twice as many people as a 777-9 depending on the configuration. The analogy that the 777-9 is a A380 replacement/competitor is just not true and needs to stop. They are no where in the same class. The 777X is a mere upgrade to the 777.
In most cases, the A380 does not have an issue with load factors either.

Well, once the plug is pulled on the A380, the 777-9 will be the closest thing left to replace the A380.

Find me an A380 that carries 800+ people, while there are both A380s and 777s carrying 400 people.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:26 am

sibibom wrote:
Emirates is one airline that makes A380 work wonderfully in its network. When A380 goes out, it will affect other fleet too, everything will need to be proportionally smaller than what it is. If 500 odd people get in LHR, they go everywhere in the network, but if you have only 370 seats, remember the next flight will have lower passengers connecting. And no EK can't increase frequency, cos there are no slots. Which is why they really insisted on A380neo. However they will have to pay for it too.

Plus the amenities of A380 and B777 are not comparable. Will 777 business class have direct aisle access like A380? Will it have a bar? A shower? It's these things that draw people to Emirates.

That is a question that EK has to ask itself, can it afford to keep these "extras" when the market is shifting increasingly away from Dubai.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:39 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Emirates is one airline that makes A380 work wonderfully in its network. When A380 goes out, it will affect other fleet too, everything will need to be proportionally smaller than what it is. If 500 odd people get in LHR, they go everywhere in the network, but if you have only 370 seats, remember the next flight will have lower passengers connecting. And no EK can't increase frequency, cos there are no slots. Which is why they really insisted on A380neo. However they will have to pay for it too.

Plus the amenities of A380 and B777 are not comparable. Will 777 business class have direct aisle access like A380? Will it have a bar? A shower? It's these things that draw people to Emirates.

That is a question that EK has to ask itself, can it afford to keep these "extras" when the market is shifting increasingly away from Dubai.


Apart from some celebrities and social media influencers, few people need or want a shower or care for first class in the first place. The prices are way too close to chartering a biz jet, which not only flies when you need to, but usually also to an airport much closer to your destination, which makes it faster. And for most willing to pay fares in this price range, time is the most valuable commodity.

Most people awed by the shower and the bar, will never buy a ticket that allows them to use it anyway.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:05 am

seahawk wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Emirates is one airline that makes A380 work wonderfully in its network. When A380 goes out, it will affect other fleet too, everything will need to be proportionally smaller than what it is. If 500 odd people get in LHR, they go everywhere in the network, but if you have only 370 seats, remember the next flight will have lower passengers connecting. And no EK can't increase frequency, cos there are no slots. Which is why they really insisted on A380neo. However they will have to pay for it too.

Plus the amenities of A380 and B777 are not comparable. Will 777 business class have direct aisle access like A380? Will it have a bar? A shower? It's these things that draw people to Emirates.

That is a question that EK has to ask itself, can it afford to keep these "extras" when the market is shifting increasingly away from Dubai.


Apart from some celebrities and social media influencers, few people need or want a shower or care for first class in the first place. The prices are way too close to chartering a biz jet, which not only flies when you need to, but usually also to an airport much closer to your destination, which makes it faster. And for most willing to pay fares in this price range, time is the most valuable commodity.

Most people awed by the shower and the bar, will never buy a ticket that allows them to use it anyway.


One hand you say yields are trash and then say cost of first class is as much as a private jet....something ain't making sense.

Look at all Emirates adverts, they "sell" A380 experience, thats their branding. Most end up in vastly inferior B777 (obviously cos of their own interiors), but its the aura of A380 that sells.

Plus unlike other traditional airlines, maximum profit for the airline isn't the only motive for EK(despite being quite profitable). They are selling brand Dubai, and have turned a sleepy port into a global city. Look at the number of tourists in Dubai and you realize how important EK is for them.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:16 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
while there are both A380s and 777s carrying 400 people


Not a valid comparison - there are 77Ws out there with a lot less than 400 seats.

Fit that 777 with the same first/business/economy seats as the 400-seat A380 in the same proportions and let us know how many seats it then has.
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:17 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
No maintenance discussion either, maintaining 4 RR engines vs 2 GE-90s should be a wash to advantage GE-90, as EK is quite silent on the GE-90 reliability (staying on wing in the hot, blowing sand DXB), wasn't loudly mumbling about the EA engines could be pointing to the unhappiness with RR is not about efficiency but with maintenance.

Right now EK is probably 80% GE & Engine Alliance. They may be assessing keeping the EA 380's longer but not taking additional RR 380's.

The issue isn't that 4x RR perform less well than 4x EA (or 2x GE90's). The issue is RR promised they would perform better, in certain aspects, than the EA, and backed themselves with performance guarantees.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:30 am

I suspect it isn't a major factor in all this but I wonder if Emirates have rather shot themselves in the foot. There was a time (admittedly way back before I ever flew them) when they had a reputation for quality. My own experiences (just ten flights between 2012 and 2014 in A330s, 777s, and an A380; eight in Economy, two in Business) did not impress. It's now an airline I avoid. I'd much rather fly Qatar or Ethiopian. I'd probably even rather fly Turkish.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:22 am

What is the formal progressing right now? So Emirates obviously missed the confirmation date for the latest RR engine order. This puts the whole "firm" A380 order on hold or is this now cancelled? Are they still negotiating about it or is this now terminated? Practically what aircraft will carry their future passenger? Will they put the lease return plan on hold and keep their older (but still good to go) EA-A380s?
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:32 am

atcsundevil wrote:
Keep the thread on topic or it will be locked. This thread will not turn into an Airbus vs Boeing discussion. Just discuss the topic without the flamebait or personal attacks.

✈️ atcsundevil


I've been following this thread with great interest and it would be sad to see it locked because of few childish trolls and fanboys, is it not possible and more logical to ban the ones that cause that steer the conversation to A vs B and personal attacks than to lock the whole thread. Thanks for the good work.
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:59 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

But the A380 does not need a huge increase to become even more uncompetitive. We already know that it needs high load factors (over 80% to brake even) and we also know that a 787 has lower CASM. And for Airbus it can not be a good solution to have to sell this big plane with 4 engines for the the same price as Boeing can ask for a 777-9.


The A380 can carry almost twice as many people as a 777-9 depending on the configuration. The analogy that the 777-9 is a A380 replacement/competitor is just not true and needs to stop. They are no where in the same class. The 777X is a mere upgrade to the 777.
.


No it doesn't, the fact that there are countless 77Ws, most of which have a healthy proportion of premium seats, seating over 350, yet no A380 in existance has over 650 seats (heck most have less than 550 seats ) should show how stupid this statement is, and a 779 will be slightly longer than even that.

And frankly regardless of what arbitrary uh, "class" the A380, the airlines have spoken on how irreplaceable and competitive it truly is with their wallets (i.e not at all)


The reason most A380s have around ~510 seats is that they are configured with F seats and many more J seats. If you compare apples to apples i.e. similar config with similar seats for same airlines, you'll see 77W with F seats are usually configured with 264-295 seats and A380s configured with ~490-500 seats with almost double F and J seats. A380s can be configured like the high density 77W i.e. no F class, 11 abreast to make similar Y seat as 77W and around 60-70 J seats to make a 750+ seater aircraft but they will go half empty making losses. Airlines are struggling to fill even 500 seats as it is (except a couple of slot constrained airports).
However, if/when the A380 production is shut off, 779 would be the largest available passenger aircraft so it would be fair to call the 779 the replacement for A380s until a larger aircraft is produced.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:46 am

sabby wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
Slug71 wrote:

The A380 can carry almost twice as many people as a 777-9 depending on the configuration. The analogy that the 777-9 is a A380 replacement/competitor is just not true and needs to stop. They are no where in the same class. The 777X is a mere upgrade to the 777.
.


No it doesn't, the fact that there are countless 77Ws, most of which have a healthy proportion of premium seats, seating over 350, yet no A380 in existance has over 650 seats (heck most have less than 550 seats ) should show how stupid this statement is, and a 779 will be slightly longer than even that.

And frankly regardless of what arbitrary uh, "class" the A380, the airlines have spoken on how irreplaceable and competitive it truly is with their wallets (i.e not at all)


The reason most A380s have around ~510 seats is that they are configured with F seats and many more J seats. If you compare apples to apples i.e. similar config with similar seats for same airlines, you'll see 77W with F seats are usually configured with 264-295 seats and A380s configured with ~490-500 seats with almost double F and J seats. A380s can be configured like the high density 77W i.e. no F class, 11 abreast to make similar Y seat as 77W and around 60-70 J seats to make a 750+ seater aircraft but they will go half empty making losses. Airlines are struggling to fill even 500 seats as it is (except a couple of slot constrained airports).


Not to detract from the broader discussion, but that's not supported by the seatmap data on both planes that we have right now:

EK 3-class 77W - 8/42/310 - 360 seats
EK 3-class A380 - 14/76/427 - 514 seats
BA 4-class 77W - 14/56/44/185 - 299 seats (9-abreast)
BA 4-class A380 - 14/97/55/303 - 469 seats
KE 3-class 77W - 8/56/227 - 291 seats (9-abreast)
KE 3-class A380 - 12/94/301 - 407 seats
SQ 4-class 77W - 4/48/28/184 - 264 seats (9-abreast)
SQ 4-class A380 - 6/82/44/343 - 475 seats
NH 4-class 77W - 8/52/24/180 - 264 seats
NH 4-class A380 - 8/56/73/383 - 520 seats
AF 4-class 77W - 4/40/28/250 - 322 seats
AF 4-class A380 - 9/80/38/389 - 514 seats

On average, a 3-class (F/J/Y) A380 carries ~40-60% more pax than a similarly configured 77W in the same airline. The notable exception to this is NH, but given that the 77W has about same amount of space consuming F/J seats as the A380 it's a clearly more premium configuration overall.

Also for reference:
EK 2-class 77W - 42/385 - 427 seats
EK 2-class A380 - 58/557 - 615 seats (closest thing to a "high-density" A380)
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:07 pm

IslandRob wrote:
Yeah, hard not to notice the uncanny silence from Airbus regarding the widespread rumors that the A380 program is on the verge of shutdown. If the rumors were false, I'd expect Airbus to refute them, lest they become self-fulfilling prophecies. -ir

Yep, earlier I pointed out Airbus did make a press release saying they were discussing the A380 contract with EK, and could have used that opportunity to release some statement supportive of the A380, but didn't. The non-statement spoke volumes.

ScottB wrote:
No, just no. If Airbus is losing money on manufacturing the A380, and they can't make a plausible business case in which the A380 becomes solidly profitable, there's no reason for them to keep making the A380 -- they're just throwing good money after bad. It is much, much better for them to sell more A350s at a profit even if it already has a huge backlog and they can use the resources currently devoted to the A380 (real estate, manufacturing labor, aircraft designers, etc.) for more profitable product lines and to pursue future product development.

That's the exact rationale behind Boeing closing down the 757 line. Now we have space that used to be used for 757 production being used for very profitable 737 production, along with a shopping area.

ScottB wrote:
I think it is entirely possible, if not likely that Airbus has approached EK about the balance of their order, rather than the other way around, in light of the fact that the supplemental order for 20+16 seems to be in jeopardy. That order, as well as the reduction in production to six frames annually, has been seen as the lifeline to keep the A380 going until technologies and the market are ready for an A380NG/neo; absent that order, it may very well be better for Airbus to wind down production sooner rather than later. If "digestible losses" are in the neighborhood of $50 million per frame as has been speculated, we're talking about Airbus eating losses of a billion-and-a-half dollars on the rest of EK's firm order. There are better things for Airbus to do with that money.

It's interesting all this is happening after John Leahy left the stage. In his post-retirement interview ( https://leehamnews.com/2018/02/16/leahy ... 80-future/ ) he was still all-in on the A380. He gave a textbook rendition of the "build it and they shall come" argument.
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:27 pm

We should not be surprised that Airbus is in talks with EK about the A380 order.

EK's 20 + 16 order was the A380's lifeline. If RR will not offer the same terms as the for the previous 50x order, because maintenance costs are so high they lose money on Total Care, and there is no business case to expend capex on fixing the issues, then Airbus and EK each have a problem.

Airbus may still want to build them, and EK may still want to take them, but the RR issue has queered the pitch. Time is running out and threatens to undermine Airbus' rationale for slow-building the 20 + 16 because gaps will start to appear in the production process. There must be "talks", whether or not EK or Airbus are having a strategic re-think, although the longer time drags on, the more likely they are to re-think.

No doubt a number of resolution options remain in play.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:04 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
sabby wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:

No it doesn't, the fact that there are countless 77Ws, most of which have a healthy proportion of premium seats, seating over 350, yet no A380 in existance has over 650 seats (heck most have less than 550 seats ) should show how stupid this statement is, and a 779 will be slightly longer than even that.

And frankly regardless of what arbitrary uh, "class" the A380, the airlines have spoken on how irreplaceable and competitive it truly is with their wallets (i.e not at all)


The reason most A380s have around ~510 seats is that they are configured with F seats and many more J seats. If you compare apples to apples i.e. similar config with similar seats for same airlines, you'll see 77W with F seats are usually configured with 264-295 seats and A380s configured with ~490-500 seats with almost double F and J seats. A380s can be configured like the high density 77W i.e. no F class, 11 abreast to make similar Y seat as 77W and around 60-70 J seats to make a 750+ seater aircraft but they will go half empty making losses. Airlines are struggling to fill even 500 seats as it is (except a couple of slot constrained airports).


Not to detract from the broader discussion, but that's not supported by the seatmap data on both planes that we have right now:

EK 3-class 77W - 8/42/310 - 360 seats
EK 3-class A380 - 14/76/427 - 514 seats
BA 4-class 77W - 14/56/44/185 - 299 seats (9-abreast)
BA 4-class A380 - 14/97/55/303 - 469 seats
KE 3-class 77W - 8/56/227 - 291 seats (9-abreast)
KE 3-class A380 - 12/94/301 - 407 seats
SQ 4-class 77W - 4/48/28/184 - 264 seats (9-abreast)
SQ 4-class A380 - 6/82/44/343 - 475 seats
NH 4-class 77W - 8/52/24/180 - 264 seats
NH 4-class A380 - 8/56/73/383 - 520 seats
AF 4-class 77W - 4/40/28/250 - 322 seats
AF 4-class A380 - 9/80/38/389 - 514 seats

On average, a 3-class (F/J/Y) A380 carries ~40-60% more pax than a similarly configured 77W in the same airline. The notable exception to this is NH, but given that the 77W has about same amount of space consuming F/J seats as the A380 it's a clearly more premium configuration overall.

Also for reference:
EK 2-class 77W - 42/385 - 427 seats
EK 2-class A380 - 58/557 - 615 seats (closest thing to a "high-density" A380)


EK have very different hard products on 77W vs A380. They have 7 abreast J and 10 abreast Y. BA also have 10 abreast Y on 77W (only older 77E have 9 abreast which will be converted to 10 abreast after refurbishment IIRC). I think SQ reflect the similar config in both the aircrafts and 80% extra seats can be considered as 'almost' twice. Again, most of the airlines did not configure A380 with higher seats because it is very difficult to fill the existing config without lowering yields. BA is the exception but they have super high demand for J so need more premium cabin. The A380 is basically a wider 77W in the lower deck and a 789 on the upper deck.

Anyway, we are veering off topic so let's conclude it or agree to disagree. The fact remains that 779 would be the largest pax aircraft so that would be the A380 replacements for most airlines with slot constraints otherwise multiple combinations of 789/781/A359/A35K if slots are available.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:59 pm

This whole conversation about size and pax count is pointless. The market has rejected the bigger plane. It could carry 1000 PAX and it wouldn't matter. I certainly wouldn't fly in it. This who preoccupation with size is what got the Europeans in trouble in the first place: size counts and ignore the market research! Remember, it's not about how big it is but how you use it (or how demand tells you how to use it).
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:37 pm

sabby wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
Slug71 wrote:

The A380 can carry almost twice as many people as a 777-9 depending on the configuration. The analogy that the 777-9 is a A380 replacement/competitor is just not true and needs to stop. They are no where in the same class. The 777X is a mere upgrade to the 777.
.


No it doesn't, the fact that there are countless 77Ws, most of which have a healthy proportion of premium seats, seating over 350, yet no A380 in existance has over 650 seats (heck most have less than 550 seats ) should show how stupid this statement is, and a 779 will be slightly longer than even that.

And frankly regardless of what arbitrary uh, "class" the A380, the airlines have spoken on how irreplaceable and competitive it truly is with their wallets (i.e not at all)


The reason most A380s have around ~510 seats is that they are configured with F seats and many more J seats. If you compare apples to apples i.e. similar config with similar seats for same airlines, you'll see 77W with F seats are usually configured with 264-295 seats and A380s configured with ~490-500 seats with almost double F and J seats. A380s can be configured like the high density 77W i.e. no F class, 11 abreast to make similar Y seat as 77W and around 60-70 J seats to make a 750+ seater aircraft but they will go half empty making losses. Airlines are struggling to fill even 500 seats as it is (except a couple of slot constrained airports).
However, if/when the A380 production is shut off, 779 would be the largest available passenger aircraft so it would be fair to call the 779 the replacement for A380s until a larger aircraft is produced.

I would suspect part of the reason why most airlines choose a premium heavy config for the A380 is because that is the only way the A380 will work for them. They know they can't fill that many seats if fitted in a 77W density and/or flying 2 330s/350s/777s/787s will give them more flexibility when demand goes down.

They even have space for a mini lounge/bar/shower. As a comparison to the past, the 747 had their lounges removed for more seats, signs of the changing times I guess, smaller planes work better for airlines than big ones now.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:01 pm

Could the space now devoted to the 380 be used to build a high volume 32xx line?

There was another thread recently ( sorry can’t remember which one) where it was put forward that the current 32xx production facilities could be much more efficient.

If BA is selling 737 solely due to availability this could be a very smart move.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:02 pm

What the 779 will do for EK is allow them to reduce their A380 flying. The jump from 77W to A380 is huge even before loss of business class seats is factored in. EK needs the A380 for places like LHR, but many other destinations would be better off with 779s or an A380 / 779 mix.

If EK has a systemwide load factor of 80%, but is flying full to LHR, SYD, and a few other places which get multiple A380s daily, a lot of their flights are less than 80% full. Something between 1/3 to 1/2 of the A380s can be replaced with 779s over time. Then it is an issue of managing the A380 fleet for the long term if the line is shut down.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:07 pm

I don't think the EK-RR-AB discussions are necessarily contentious. Each knows what the business case and specs need to be for it to be (near) profitable and would be happy if it is or were possible. This could be one of those bargaining situations where everything is open and on the table. No (or very little) is hidden. The big question: Can we make it work? While no 'yes' has been forthcoming, it has not so far been a 'no'. Final answer may be near and most of us expect it to be a 'no'. But we don't know that.
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:25 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Could the space now devoted to the 380 be used to build a high volume 32xx line?

There was another thread recently ( sorry can’t remember which one) where it was put forward that the current 32xx production facilities could be much more efficient.

If BA is selling 737 solely due to availability this could be a very smart move.


Sure with a billion(s) anything is possible. But how many eggs do airbus and it’s suppliers want to stick in the A320neo basket? Will the engine vendors follow them up?

At some point the answer has to stop being more A320neo’s.

The A330neo isn’t selling and making money...let’s build more A320neo.

The A380 line is closing...let’s build more A320neo.

At some point the response has to be to win in the widebody space too. You are creating a significant systemic vulnerability. Boeing came for the A330 and while they botched execution it appears they have gotten that target. They came for the A380 and somewhat they A35K and it appears they have killed one and hurt the other (the A350 program would love the 777X orders for both margin and rate improvements).

At some point Boeing and or other vendors are going to come for the A320neo. And when you have to make that transition from the A320neo to whatever follows you might want to be making money on other planes.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:34 pm

sibibom wrote:
Emirates is one airline that makes A380 work wonderfully in its network. When A380 goes out, it will affect other fleet too, everything will need to be proportionally smaller than what it is. If 500 odd people get in LHR, they go everywhere in the network, but if you have only 370 seats, remember the next flight will have lower passengers connecting. And no EK can't increase frequency, cos there are no slots. Which is why they really insisted on A380neo. However they will have to pay for it too.

Plus the amenities of A380 and B777 are not comparable. Will 777 business class have direct aisle access like A380? Will it have a bar? A shower? It's these things that draw people to Emirates.



Emirates currently has 2-3-2 configured business class on their 777s so we already know the answer to that
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WIederling
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Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:51 pm

bigjku wrote:
At some point the answer has to stop being more A320neo’s.
The A330neo isn’t selling and making money...let’s build more A320neo.
The A380 line is closing...let’s build more A320neo.


All rather lacking in intellectual stringency. :-)

Building all the sold A320 will take too much time
and with the current delivery horizon so far out
customers are getting coy and may fall back to buying Boeing.
...let’s build more A320neo.
Murphy is an optimist
 
marcelh
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:11 pm

bigjku wrote:
They came for the A380 and somewhat they A35K and it appears they have killed one and hurt the other (the A350 program would love the 777X orders for both margin and rate improvements).

Clearly a Boeing biased statement. The 779 isn’t an A380 competitor, it’s only use is not to surrender the large WB market (A340-600 and 77W replacemnt) completely to Airbus with the introduction of the A35K. Sure, Boeing will sell some 779 because in capacity it’s the next best option after the A380.

You might say that Boeing did a better job with the B77X (completely new wing, new engines and a small strech) compared to what Airbus did with the A330neo.
 
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par13del
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:42 pm

WIederling wrote:
All rather lacking in intellectual stringency. :-)

Building all the sold A320 will take too much time
and with the current delivery horizon so far out
customers are getting coy and may fall back to buying Boeing.
...let’s build more A320neo.

So are you implying that customers are cancelling A320 orders and buying Boeing because the delivery horizon is so far out?

Methinks what you mean is that POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS are buying Boeing, this would fit the A.Net mantra since no one in their right mind would be buying warmed over 30 year designs versus modern A320's.
 
Eyad89
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:03 pm

marcelh wrote:

You might say that Boeing did a better job with the B77X (completely new wing, new engines and a small strech) compared to what Airbus did with the A330neo.


It’s very hard to say how their order books will look like in the future, but as things currently stand, A330neo is looking like it’s achieving a better return on investment than 77X overall.

Their orders are close to each other while A330neo being a MUCH cheaper investment.
Last edited by Eyad89 on Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 178
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:10 pm

sibibom wrote:
seahawk wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
That is a question that EK has to ask itself, can it afford to keep these "extras" when the market is shifting increasingly away from Dubai.


Apart from some celebrities and social media influencers, few people need or want a shower or care for first class in the first place. The prices are way too close to chartering a biz jet, which not only flies when you need to, but usually also to an airport much closer to your destination, which makes it faster. And for most willing to pay fares in this price range, time is the most valuable commodity.

Most people awed by the shower and the bar, will never buy a ticket that allows them to use it anyway.


One hand you say yields are trash and then say cost of first class is as much as a private jet....something ain't making sense.

Look at all Emirates adverts, they "sell" A380 experience, thats their branding. Most end up in vastly inferior B777 (obviously cos of their own interiors), but its the aura of A380 that sells.

Plus unlike other traditional airlines, maximum profit for the airline isn't the only motive for EK(despite being quite profitable). They are selling brand Dubai, and have turned a sleepy port into a global city. Look at the number of tourists in Dubai and you realize how important EK is for them.


This is indeed what many people don't understand.
If Airbus ends the A380 production, EK's business model will fall apart eventually from a marketing point of view but also from a political point of view.
No more A380's means no additional slots in the EU, even if they order A350's.
If not EK, someone else will buy those A350's anyway.
Within a decade, EK will become a secondary airline like EY. Undercut by the Chinese, not convenient or good enough to compete against Asian and European carriers.

People indeed don't realise that EK is what keeps Dubai going. In turn, it takes A380's to keep EK going.

A defining moment for Dubai, but I predict that EK will sign with RR and end the drama. Perhaps they'll even order more A380's if some conditions are met.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1172
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:53 pm

EK has 100+ A380's already in its fleet, 30+ on order with RR engines on contract, that is before considering the 20+16 order that RR has not signed onto.

I have not seen anything specific but it seems EK and RR are less than thrilled with the higher maintenance on the Trent 900's. Could EK be comparing their maintenance on the GE90's, the maintenance on the EA engined A380's, and the RR ones. Are they preferring the EA 380's, planning to keep them longer?

Financing costs could have gone sky high also. With the initial A380's off lease being sent to storage (or being part time with HiFly) any lender would want terms that pay off the 380 in like 12 years with residual being parts value only. Does EK want A380s at a rate higher than say 4 per year, in particular if they need to buy not lease the planes?

Even if EK only gets 16 more A380's of their order, that fully replaces the first A380's delivered and taken off lease for them. Ten years from now EK could still have at least 80 A380's in service. That covers over 50 city pairs served daily. Do they need 60 city pairs served by the A380, or more like 40.

I predict the notice that the A380 will stay at 8 per year for 3 years, about a dozen frames cancelled and production stops around 2022. No orders accepted from this date forward.

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