FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

7H ANC-ENA FEB 9>8[9]
7H ANI-CHU FEB 0.7>0.4[0.4] MAR 0.7>0.4[0.4]
7H ANI-SLQ FEB 0.3>0[0.2] MAR 0.3>0[0.2]
7H CHU-CKD FEB 0.7>0.4[0.4] MAR 0.7>0.4[0.4]
7H CKD-SLQ FEB 0.3>0[0.2] MAR 0.3>0[0.2]

AA ATL-MIA JUN 8>7[6] JUL 8>7[7] AUG 8>7[6]
AA BOS-ORD MAY 10>9[9] JUN 10>9[10] JUL 10>9[10] AUG 10>9[10] SEP 10>9[10] OCT 10>9[9]
AA DCA-MCO MAR 4>5[5]
AA DEN-MIA JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[3]
AA DFW-GRR MAY 2>3[3] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2.0] AUG 2>3[2]
AA DSM-ORD JUN 6>7[6] JUL 6>7[6] AUG 6>7[5] SEP 6>7[5] OCT 6>7[6]
AA MEM-ORD JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>6[4] AUG 4>6[4] SEP 4>6[4] OCT 4>6[4]
AA MIA-SEA JUN 1.0>1.8[1.8] JUL 1.0>2[2] AUG 1.0>2[1.6]
AA MIA-STL JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]
AA MIA-TLH JUN 3>4[4] JUL 3>4[4] AUG 3>4[4]
AA MLI-ORD JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
AA MSN-ORD JUN 6>7[5] JUL 6>7[6] AUG 6>7[6] SEP 6>7[6] OCT 6>7[6]
AA ORD-PSP MAY 2>1.1[1.0]
AA ORD-SFO MAY 6>5[5] JUN 6>5[6] JUL 6>5[6] AUG 6>5[6] SEP 6>5[6] OCT 6>5[6]

AC BWI-YUL JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.5[1.0]
AC LAS-YYZ APR 2>3[2]

Seems like AS is pulling back major market transcons bit by bit
AS IAD-SFO JUN 3>2.0[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]
AS LAX-ORD JUN 1.7>1.0[1.8] JUL 1.9>1.0[1.9] AUG 1.7>1.0[1.7]
AS OGG-PDX JUN 1.7>2.0[1.6] JUL 1.6>2[1.6] AUG 1.5>1.9[1.6]
AS OGG-SEA JUN 1.5>2[1.4] JUL 1.4>2[1.4] AUG 1.5>2[1.5]

AV MIA-SAP FEB 1.0>0.8[1.0]

B0 EWR-ORY OCT 1.6>2[1.8]

B6 BOS-MCO JUL 6>5[6] AUG 6>5[6]
B6 EWR-MCO JUL 5>6[6]
B6 EWR-PBI JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]
B6 EWR-TPA JUN 1.4>2[2] JUL 1.0>2[2] AUG 1.0>2[2]

DL ATL-AVL SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[7]
DL ATL-CAE SEP 8>9[7] OCT 7>8[7]
DL ATL-CMH SEP 8>7[7] OCT 8>7[7]
DL ATL-JAX SEP 12>11[11]
DL ATL-PNS SEP 8>9[8] OCT 8>9[8]
DL ATL-SJD SEP 0.4>0.7[0.5] OCT 0.4>0.7[0.4]
DL BZN-MSP OCT 3>2[2]
MSY is not surprising, I'm a bit surprised by PIT
*DL MSY-RDU JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]
*DL PIT-RDU JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]

*F9 BKG-DFW MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
*F9 BKG-ORD MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
*F9 BNA-ORD MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]
*F9 CHS-CLE MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
*F9 CLE-SFO MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]
*F9 ORD-RSW JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
*F9 ORD-SYR MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]
*F9 ORD-TPA MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]

**FI DFW-KEF MAR 0.5>0[0] APR 0.6>0[0] MAY 0.6>0.3[0.0]

G4 ABE-SAV JUN 0>0.2[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 ALB-MYR JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 ANC-BLI JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 AZA-FCA JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 AZA-GJT APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 BNA-GRR JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 CHS-CLE JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 CLE-ORF JUN 0>0.2[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 CVG-ORF JUN 0>0.2[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 DEN-TYS JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 GRR-SAV JUN 0>0.2[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 HGR-MYR JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 IAG-SAV JUN 0>0.2[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 OMA-VPS JUN 0>0.2[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 PSM-SAV JUN 0>0.2[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]
G4 TUL-VPS JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0]

LF BNA-TUP MAY 0>3[4]

MW LUP-MKK FEB 1.2>0.9[0] MAR 1.2>0.9[0] APR 1.2>0.9[0]

*NK ATL-DEN MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK BOS-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK BWI-RDU MAY 0>1.3[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
NK CLE-RSW MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0] APR 1.0>1.3[0.4]
NK DTW-FLL MAR 2>3[2]
*NK DTW-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK FLL-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK MCO-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
NK MSP-RSW MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0] APR 1.0>1.3[0.4]
DL and NK add at the same time
*NK MSY-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK ORD-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK PHL-SJU JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.5[0]

SY AUS-MSP APR 0>0.3[0]
SY DEN-MSP APR 0>0.4[0.8]
SY MSP-SFO APR 1.1>1.4[1.5]

TP EWR-OPO JUN 0.3>0.9[0.3] JUL 0.3>0.8[0.3] AUG 0.3>0.9[0.3] SEP 0.3>0.9[0.3] OCT 0.3>0.7[0.3]

UA ABQ-SFO JUN 1.8>3[3] JUL 1.9>3[3] AUG 1.8>2[3]
UA BDL-ORD JUL 5>4[5]
UA BNA-EWR JUN 7>6[4] JUL 7>6[4]
UA BNA-SFO MAY 3>2[2]
UA BOS-LAX MAY 3>2[3]
UA BOS-SFO JUL 7>8[8]
UA BTV-EWR JUN 6>4[5] JUL 6>4[6] AUG 6>5[6]
UA BWI-IAH JUN 1.8>3[1.9] JUL 1.9>3[2] AUG 1.8>2[2.0]
UA BZN-SFO JUN 1.5>1.0[1.7] JUL 2>1.0[2] AUG 2>1.4[2]
UA CHO-IAD JUN 3>2[2] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2]
UA CHS-EWR JUN 5>4[4] JUL 5>4[4]
UA CHS-IAH JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2]
UA CLT-IAH JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[5]
UA CMH-ORD JUL 8>7[7]
UA DAY-ORD JUL 7>6[7]
UA DEN-ELP JUN 5>4[4] JUL 5>4[4]
UA DEN-MCI JUN 5>6[6] JUL 5>6[6]
UA DEN-ORD JUN 12>11[12] JUL 13>11[12] AUG 13>11[12]
UA DEN-PHX JUN 6>4[4] JUL 6>4[4] AUG 6>5[4]
UA DEN-TUS JUL 5>4[4]
UA DFW-ORD JUN 6>7[7] JUL 7>8[7]
UA DLH-ORD JUN 3>4[4] JUL 3>4[4] AUG 3>4[3]
UA DSM-ORD JUN 6>5[6] JUL 7>5[6] AUG 7>5[6]
UA DTW-ORD JUL 7>8[7]
UA ECP-IAH JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]
UA EWR-GSO JUL 5>4[3]
UA EWR-MEM JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3]
UA EWR-MYR MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0]
UA EWR-SYR JUL 4>3[4]
UA FLL-ORD JUN 4>2[3] JUL 4>2[3] AUG 4>3[3]
UA GSP-IAD JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3]
UA IAD-LAX JUN 9>8[9] JUL 9>8[9]
UA IAD-MCI JUN 3>2[2] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2]
UA IAD-MSP JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]
UA IAD-ROA JUN 3>2[1.9] JUL 3>2[1.9] AUG 3>2[2]
UA IAD-SAV JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3]
UA IAD-SCE JUN 3>2[2] JUL 3>2[1.8] AUG 3>2[2]
UA IAD-SEA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]
UA IAD-SYR MAY 3>4[3]
UA IAH-LAS JUN 7>6[6] JUL 7>6[6] AUG 7>6[6]
UA IAH-LIT JUN 5>6[6] JUL 5>6[6]
UA IAH-MCO JUN 6>7[7] JUL 6>7[7]
UA IAH-MKE JUN 1.8>3[1.8] JUL 1.9>3[1.9] AUG 1.8>2[1.9]
UA IAH-MOT MAY 0>0.3[0.2]
UA IAH-ORD JUN 10>9[9] JUL 10>9[9]
UA IAH-ORF JUN 1.2>2.0[1.2] JUL 1.0>2[1.3] AUG 1.0>1.6[1.4]
UA IAH-PHL JUL 4>5[4]
UA IAH-PHX JUN 5>4[4] JUL 5>4[4]
UA IAH-PIT JUN 5>6[5] JUL 5>6[5]
UA IAH-RDU JUN 4>5[5] JUL 4>5[5]
UA IAH-RSW JUN 2>1.2[1.3] JUL 2>1.0[1.1] AUG 2>1.4[1.1]
UA IAH-SLC JUN 4>5[5] JUL 4>5[5]
UA IAH-SMF JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[1.5]
UA IAH-SNA JUL 5>4[5]
UA IAH-YVR JUN 1.0>1.8[1.7] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.6[1.0]
UA LAX-ORD JUL 12>11[12]
UA LAX-RNO JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]
UA LAX-SAT MAY 1.9>1.5[2]
UA MIA-ORD JUN 3>2[2] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]
UA MSO-ORD MAY 0>0.3[0]
UA MYR-ORD MAY 0>0.3[0.1]
UA OMA-ORD JUL 6>5[5]
UA ORD-ORF JUN 3>4[4] JUL 3>4[4] AUG 3>4[4]
UA ORD-PHX JUN 5>4[4] JUL 5>4[5]
UA ORD-RDU JUL 5>6[5]
UA ORD-SBN JUL 5>4[4]
UA ORD-SCE JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3]
UA ORD-SDF JUL 7>6[5]
UA ORD-SLC JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[4] AUG 3>4[4]
UA ORD-SMF JUN 2>3[2] JUL 1.9>3[1.8] AUG 1.8>2[2]
UA ORD-SYR JUL 4>5[5]
UA ORD-TVC JUN 3>4[5] JUL 3>4[5] AUG 3>4[5]
UA ORD-YVR JUN 2>4[4] JUL 2>4[4] AUG 2>3[4]
UA PHL-SFO JUN 1.6>2.0[2.0] JUL 1.5>2[2] AUG 1.5>1.8[2]
UA PSP-SFO JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3]
UA SBA-SFO JUN 5>6[6] JUL 5>6[6]
UA SFO-SLC JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4]

VB GDL-LAX FEB 1.0>0.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>0.8[1.0] OCT 0>0.8[1.0]
VB JFK-MEX FEB 1.0>0.7[0] MAR 1.0>0.8[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>0.8[0.5]
VB LAS-MEX FEB 1.0>0.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>0.6[1.0] SEP 0>1.0[1.1] OCT 0>0.8[1.0]
*VB LAS-MTY JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0.1] OCT 0>0.2[0]

VC AUS-BHM OCT 0>0.5[0]
VC AUS-MEM OCT 0>0.6[0]
*VC AUS-TUS MAR 0.2>0[0.5] APR 0.2>0[0.4] MAY 0.2>0[0.4]
*VC BDL-PIT OCT 0>0.6[0]
*VC BHM-MOB OCT 0>0.5[0]
*VC BHM-PIT OCT 0>0.5[0]
VC BHM-RDU MAY 0.3>0.6[0] JUN 0.3>0.6[0] JUL 0.3>0.5[0] AUG 0.3>0.6[0] SEP 0.3>0.6[0] OCT 0>0.5[0]
*VC MEM-PIT OCT 0>0.6[0]
VC MOB-SFB FEB 0.6>0.3[0] MAR 0.6>0.3[0]
*VC SFB-TLH MAY 0.3>0.0[0] JUN 0.3>0[0] JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0]

This is the first time they have really dropped a route with nearly zero notice. A lot of Europeans going to Disney will be angry.
**WW KEF-MCO FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.4>0[0] APR 0.4>0[0]
WW KEF-ORD FEB 0.8>0.5[0.7]

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

Thanks again for my Sunday airline porn to go with my coffee.

For you or tphuang, is there a way to see what F9 routes are still there from SJC, and how they are doing? I’m curious if the dartboard adds from last year have stuck.

Both G4 and F9 on CLE-CHS? That's a lot of seats in a market that never had anywhere close to that level of service back in the CO hub days.

Not surprised Icelandair dropping the DFW route. I wouldn’t be surprised if AA drops that route as well. As always great to see your Sunday postings

Thanks as always, Enilria!

enilria wrote:

MSY is not surprising, I'm a bit surprised by PIT
*DL MSY-RDU JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]
*DL PIT-RDU JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]

RDU-PIT was only a matter of time. I'm only slightly surprised it happened this soon.

Let's see how AA reacts to this. The route has recently been cut down to a less-than-daily E140. I wouldn't be shocked if they bail out.

Runway28L wrote:

enilria wrote:

MSY is not surprising, I'm a bit surprised by PIT
*DL MSY-RDU JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]
*DL PIT-RDU JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]

RDU-PIT was only a matter of time. I'm only slightly surprised it happened this soon.

Let's see how AA reacts to this. The route has recently been cut down to a less-than-daily E140. I wouldn't be shocked if they bail out.

RDU-PIT on DL is no surprise, in my opinion. In fact, I've been waiting for it to happen for a few months. Look at the list of other medium-to-large Midwestern and Northeastern non-hub destinations DL serves from RDU: ORD, IND, CLE, CMH, CVG, DCA, BWI, PHL, EWR, BDL... PIT was a missing hole in the RDU network. Add to that DL's decently strong position in PIT (including recent additions of SLC and BOS) vs AA's continued pattern of exiting point-to-point flying (including recently cutting PIT-BOS), and it seems like DL should have no problem at all pushing AA out of this market. That would leave just BOS-MDT, BOS-ROC, and BOS-SYR as AA domestic point-to-point routes, all of which could be at risk if DL decides to fill out some more of their BOS-Northeast network when they get additional gates in the Fall.

Also, note that DL will be competing with a daily CR9 on RDU-PIT, vs AA's daily CR2.

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

Fares have steadily increased on this route, it's ripe for ULCC competition. 3x/weekly is rather underwhelming though, I would have hoped for a daily add.

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

F9 will likely not survive this route. They’ve tried it before and failed. It is very competitive considering you have large WN stations on both ends and UA/AA continue to engage in their never ending battle over ORD.

Though I will say AA flys only ER4s and CR7’s on this route and UA flys only one mainline on average with the rest being everything from E75’s to CR2’s. Not very competitive if you ask me. Compare this to routes like BNA-ATL/DFW where DL and AA fly all mainline despite WN have decent sized stations with many flights on both ends. I get that UA/AA are splitting the O&D on this route, which is likely leading to the lower gauges, but this is a prime example where UA needs to step up their game domestically and start upgauging more. UA BNA-ORD should be all mainline and E75s.

RamblinMan wrote:

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

Fares have steadily increased on this route, it's ripe for ULCC competition. 3x/weekly is rather underwhelming though, I would have hoped for a daily add.

How have fares increased? It’s split three ways between UA/AA/WN, that’s pretty competitive

Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:

UA IAH-MKE JUN 1.8>3[1.8] JUL 1.9>3[1.9] AUG 1.8>2[1.9]

Nothing like what a little competition will do. Milwaukee-Houston had slowly deteriorated down to two lousy E145s per weekday day, and (anecdotally) everybody I knew who traveled to Houston drove down to O'Hare. Last spring Southwest added a Hobby nonstop and now not only has United upgraded to dual-class RJ's but they're adding a third nonstop. Weekly Milwaukee-Houston one-way seats bottomed out at 600 but this summer there will be four times that at 2,395. And recently friends and acquaintances are flying out of MKE again.

enilria wrote:

*DL MSY-RDU JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]
*DL PIT-RDU JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]

Notable that MSY is Saturday/Sunday only, June, July and October at the moment. Weekend leisure as opposed to business which RDU-PIT is likely aimed at.

AirFiero wrote:

Thanks again for my Sunday airline porn to go with my coffee.

For you or tphuang, is there a way to see what F9 routes are still there from SJC, and how they are doing? I’m curious if the dartboard adds from last year have stuck.

All that’s left at SJC for F9 are DEN and LAS (both of which also have F9 flights to SFO as well). CVG, ATL, and AUS were moved from SJC to SFO. TUL and SAT were dropped and not (to this point anyway) replaced with another Bay Area airport.

F9LASDEN wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

Thanks again for my Sunday airline porn to go with my coffee.

For you or tphuang, is there a way to see what F9 routes are still there from SJC, and how they are doing? I’m curious if the dartboard adds from last year have stuck.

All that’s left at SJC for F9 are DEN and LAS (both of which also have F9 flights to SFO as well). CVG, ATL, and AUS were moved from SJC to SFO. TUL and SAT were dropped and not (to this point anyway) replaced with another Bay Area airport.

With the flights that were moved to SFO year-round or seasonal?

Also, are the latter two flights possibly seasonal only?

Bigant0408 wrote:

Not surprised Icelandair dropping the DFW route. I wouldn’t be surprised if AA drops that route as well. As always great to see your Sunday postings

Agreed. AA operating DFW-KEF was merely a response to FI and WW. If AA plans to maintain KEF, I would expect the route to move from DFW to PHL.

Fargo wrote:

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

F9 will likely not survive this route. They’ve tried it before and failed. It is very competitive considering you have large WN stations on both ends and UA/AA continue to engage in their never ending battle over ORD.

Though I will say AA flys only ER4s and CR7’s on this route and UA flys only one mainline on average with the rest being everything from E75’s to CR2’s. Not very competitive if you ask me. Compare this to routes like BNA-ATL/DFW where DL and AA fly all mainline despite WN have decent sized stations with many flights on both ends. I get that UA/AA are splitting the O&D on this route, which is likely leading to the lower gauges, but this is a prime example where UA needs to step up their game domestically and start upgauging more. UA BNA-ORD should be all mainline and E75s.

Nashville to Chicago currently just a hair less under $200 r/t on UA and SWA after doing a quick dummy booking. I can't imagine F9 being much less then this after considering extra fees.

TheFlyGuy wrote:

Bigant0408 wrote:

Not surprised Icelandair dropping the DFW route. I wouldn’t be surprised if AA drops that route as well. As always great to see your Sunday postings

Agreed. AA operating DFW-KEF was merely a response to FI and WW. If AA plans to maintain KEF, I would expect the route to move from DFW to PHL.

Yea I respect AA defending hometurf but realistically to me for a connection standpoint doesn’t make sense for east and southern passengers to backtrack to DFW in my opinion. PHL you would think be more feasible for location standpoint especially for connections.

AirFiero wrote:

F9LASDEN wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

Thanks again for my Sunday airline porn to go with my coffee.

For you or tphuang, is there a way to see what F9 routes are still there from SJC, and how they are doing? I’m curious if the dartboard adds from last year have stuck.

All that’s left at SJC for F9 are DEN and LAS (both of which also have F9 flights to SFO as well). CVG, ATL, and AUS were moved from SJC to SFO. TUL and SAT were dropped and not (to this point anyway) replaced with another Bay Area airport.

With the flights that were moved to SFO year-round or seasonal?

Also, are the latter two flights possibly seasonal only?

ATL is operating year-round at SFO (started in mid-November, right at the same time SJC-ATL stopped). CVG and AUS are set to start this summer (AUS on May 10, CVG on June 2), and aren’t operating from SJC or SFO this winter, so I’m assuming that they’re seasonal (it’s possible that they get extended past this summer though). TUL and SAT aren’t showing up on F9’s website, so I’m assuming that they’re dropped.

As far as how their remaining routes at SJC are doing, they don’t appear to be doing very well. DEN is only operating 2x weekly this winter after operating daily last winter, and LAS is only operating 2x weekly this winter after operating 4x weekly last winter. This summer, DEN is set to go to 4x weekly (after being daily last summer), and LAS is set to go back to 4x weekly, the same frequency it operated last summer.

Did Spirit ever put out an announcement or did they just quietly add DEN-ATL without saying a word?

Bigant0408 wrote:

TheFlyGuy wrote:

Bigant0408 wrote:

Not surprised Icelandair dropping the DFW route. I wouldn’t be surprised if AA drops that route as well. As always great to see your Sunday postings

Agreed. AA operating DFW-KEF was merely a response to FI and WW. If AA plans to maintain KEF, I would expect the route to move from DFW to PHL.

Yea I respect AA defending hometurf but realistically to me for a connection standpoint doesn’t make sense for east and southern passengers to backtrack to DFW in my opinion. PHL you would think be more feasible for location standpoint especially for connections.

There's plenty of demand from Texas as a whole, the second most populated state in the nation. DFW is a good connecting point for passengers from Houston, Austin, San Antonio, as well as the states surrounding Texas. It's also not bad for SoCal and Colorado passengers to connect to Iceland. AA could continue DFW-KEF and still add PHL-KEF to serve the east coast. The fact that FI and WW enjoyed great load factors in their first few months at DFW without connecting traffic shows that there is demand. Not three airlines worth of demand, but AA should be fine on the route.

AA posted a management position at KEF this week. So they must plan for KEF to stick around.

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Fargo wrote:

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

F9 will likely not survive this route. They’ve tried it before and failed. It is very competitive considering you have large WN stations on both ends and UA/AA continue to engage in their never ending battle over ORD.

Though I will say AA flys only ER4s and CR7’s on this route and UA flys only one mainline on average with the rest being everything from E75’s to CR2’s. Not very competitive if you ask me. Compare this to routes like BNA-ATL/DFW where DL and AA fly all mainline despite WN have decent sized stations with many flights on both ends. I get that UA/AA are splitting the O&D on this route, which is likely leading to the lower gauges, but this is a prime example where UA needs to step up their game domestically and start upgauging more. UA BNA-ORD should be all mainline and E75s.

Nashville to Chicago currently just a hair less under $200 r/t on UA and SWA after doing a quick dummy booking. I can't imagine F9 being much less then this after considering extra fees.

It's an interesting choice for resumption -- they tried ORD-BNA in 2016. It ran April through October and averaged 75% full, with most months in the low 70's. Not an absolute washout but solidyl below average, and they did not bring it back in 2017 nor 2018.

RamblinMan wrote:

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

Fares have steadily increased on this route, it's ripe for ULCC competition.

Next month shows $197 r/t fares on both AA and UA w/o a Sat stay. I wouldn't call that expensive. Sure, averages are higher - but F9 with no meaningful frequency isn't going to fix that.

mfe777 wrote:

Bigant0408 wrote:

TheFlyGuy wrote:

Agreed. AA operating DFW-KEF was merely a response to FI and WW. If AA plans to maintain KEF, I would expect the route to move from DFW to PHL.

Yea I respect AA defending hometurf but realistically to me for a connection standpoint doesn’t make sense for east and southern passengers to backtrack to DFW in my opinion. PHL you would think be more feasible for location standpoint especially for connections.

There's plenty of demand from Texas as a whole, the second most populated state in the nation. DFW is a good connecting point for passengers from Houston, Austin, San Antonio, as well as the states surrounding Texas. It's also not bad for SoCal and Colorado passengers to connect to Iceland. AA could continue DFW-KEF and still add PHL-KEF to serve the east coast. The fact that FI and WW enjoyed great load factors in their first few months at DFW without connecting traffic shows that there is demand. Not three airlines worth of demand, but AA should be fine on the route.

Yea I figured there’s good connections within Texas and from the west coast I just figured to better utilize KEF route it could be re routed to PHL but maybe the could coexist like delta does with JKF and MSP.

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

AA and UA have fluctuated on BNA-ORD quite a bit. It'll change again. F9 possibly may have an effect, then again they may drop it. They've tried it before. I'd like to have stock in the dart board industry Frontier uses.

Via Air announced but never operated SFB-TLH

Has FI increased any NA routes? They've now cut DFW, BWI and decreased MSP, wondering where the slack will go?

Delta seems to be anticipating that AA will drop RDU-PIT and G4/F9 will drop RDU-MSY sooner or later.

joeblow10 wrote:

Did Spirit ever put out an announcement or did they just quietly add DEN-ATL without saying a word?

It is interesting - based on their route map, ATL brings it to 13(?) cities for NK from DEN. It must be doing well for them, but I also want to see how much longer DEN can grow for everybody

BML87 wrote:

Has FI increased any NA routes? They've now cut DFW, BWI and decreased MSP, wondering where the slack will go?

As a PHL follower I know that FI has extended there schedule into at least December for that route when last year it ended in October. Not sure on other routes

enilria wrote:

FAQ

This is the first time they have really dropped a route with nearly zero notice. A lot of Europeans going to Disney will be angry.
**WW KEF-MCO FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.4>0[0] APR 0.4>0[0]
WW KEF-ORD FEB 0.8>0.5[0.7]

WW is formally done for ORD as of tomorrow (January 21st). They've pretty much shipped all supplies back to KEF and the current staff is moving on. Not sure why they're showing beyond.

F9LASDEN wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

F9LASDEN wrote:

All that’s left at SJC for F9 are DEN and LAS (both of which also have F9 flights to SFO as well). CVG, ATL, and AUS were moved from SJC to SFO. TUL and SAT were dropped and not (to this point anyway) replaced with another Bay Area airport.

With the flights that were moved to SFO year-round or seasonal?

Also, are the latter two flights possibly seasonal only?

ATL is operating year-round at SFO (started in mid-November, right at the same time SJC-ATL stopped). CVG and AUS are set to start this summer (AUS on May 10, CVG on June 2), and aren’t operating from SJC or SFO this winter, so I’m assuming that they’re seasonal (it’s possible that they get extended past this summer though). TUL and SAT aren’t showing up on F9’s website, so I’m assuming that they’re dropped.

As far as how their remaining routes at SJC are doing, they don’t appear to be doing very well. DEN is only operating 2x weekly this winter after operating daily last winter, and LAS is only operating 2x weekly this winter after operating 4x weekly last winter. This summer, DEN is set to go to 4x weekly (after being daily last summer), and LAS is set to go back to 4x weekly, the same frequency it operated last summer.

Eh, that’s too bad none of these routes worked out. I wonder if DEN and LAS we’re cut due to bad loads or if they thought that they wanted to just try other routes? Cutting those to less than daily might suppress overall traffic, a downward spiral.

toltommy wrote:

AA posted a management position at KEF this week. So they must plan for KEF to stick around.

As a side point, UA EWR-KEF has been operating seasonally.
UA EWR-KEF could be flying that route for same reasons like AA is facing to the Icelandic airlines at DFW.
Both FI and WW are working at EWR.

Regards.

enilria wrote:

AV MIA-SAP FEB 1.0>0.8[1.0]

My interpretation is that AV is actually facing troubles into the Honduras - Miami segment, taking into account their reductions of weekly flights, whereas AA MIA-SAP 14x weekly with 319 is steadily serving San Pedro Sula.
AV SAP-MIA is usually served with the 100-seater E90. No Airbus equipment in such segment, meaning more possible revenue seats.
Furthermore, AV MIA-TGU 7x weekly was already trimmed in 2013.
The former TACA flew in the past TA SAL-TGU-SAP-MIA. The accident on May 30, 2008 at TGU was serving such route.

Regards.

**WW KEF-MCO FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.4>0[0] APR 0.4>0[0]

This one surprises me, not just the timing. They can't make low-fare leisure traffic route work to the Mouse House?

Hmm, weird that WOW cancelling MCO is only showing up in OAG now because them cancelling it in late January was announced way back in early December.

hockyluv21 wrote:

Delta seems to be anticipating that AA will drop RDU-PIT and G4/F9 will drop RDU-MSY sooner or later.

NK entering RDU-MSY is what's going to cause other ULCCs to drop. NK entering 9 RDU routes is pretty big deal, especially on RDU-BWI where DL is having a real hard time and RDU-DTW where DL had been milking. AA will probably drop RDU-PIT, but I really don't see how DL will perform beter on it than AA.

*NK ATL-DEN MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK BOS-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK BWI-RDU MAY 0>1.3[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
NK CLE-RSW MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0] APR 1.0>1.3[0.4]
NK DTW-FLL MAR 2>3[2]
*NK DTW-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK FLL-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK MCO-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
NK MSP-RSW MAR 1.0>1.4[1.0] APR 1.0>1.3[0.4]
DL and NK add at the same time
*NK MSY-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK ORD-RDU MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0]
*NK PHL-SJU JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.5[0]

a lot of really impressive adds here. Both ATL-DEN and PHL-SJU just got added out of nowhere.

Interesting to see how most of these routes affect DL? DL hasn't been aggressively pricing matching NK on its routes, whereas UA/AA have been. Not a surprise to see NK continuing to go after DL strong stations.

tphuang wrote:

hockyluv21 wrote:

Delta seems to be anticipating that AA will drop RDU-PIT and G4/F9 will drop RDU-MSY sooner or later.

NK entering RDU-MSY is what's going to cause other ULCCs to drop. NK entering 9 RDU routes is pretty big deal, especially on RDU-BWI where DL is having a real hard time and RDU-DTW where DL had been milking. AA will probably drop RDU-PIT, but I really don't see how DL will perform better on it than AA.

DL should perform much better on RDU-PIT just on the fact that they're the carrier with the critical mass in RDU and not AA, both on a FF basis and on the sheer size of their operation in RDU.

AirFiero wrote:

Thanks again for my Sunday airline porn to go with my coffee.

For you or tphuang, is there a way to see what F9 routes are still there from SJC, and how they are doing? I’m curious if the dartboard adds from last year have stuck.

Many smiles for that one!

jcwr56 wrote:

enilria wrote:

FAQ

This is the first time they have really dropped a route with nearly zero notice. A lot of Europeans going to Disney will be angry.
**WW KEF-MCO FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.4>0[0] APR 0.4>0[0]
WW KEF-ORD FEB 0.8>0.5[0.7]

WW is formally done for ORD as of tomorrow (January 21st). They've pretty much shipped all supplies back to KEF and the current staff is moving on. Not sure why they're showing beyond.

What’s particularly interesting IMHO is that they kept selling ORD at really high fares after it was clearly out. I wonder why? Did they move the bookings to FI and keep the fare difference? Lol

Is FI completely dropping DFW-KEF? I notice that in this report DFW-KEF is still showing some flights in May... So is the season just reduced to peak summer months, or is it really fully gone?

Fargo wrote:

RamblinMan wrote:

DakotaFlyer wrote:

Not an expert but BNA ORD seems like a tough route to operate. UA and AA both fly many flights a day and of course the Southwest factor. Also, not a lot of frontier loyalist on each end I assume. Seems and interesting add, but people smarter then me may know why.

Fares have steadily increased on this route, it's ripe for ULCC competition. 3x/weekly is rather underwhelming though, I would have hoped for a daily add.

How have fares increased? It’s split three ways between UA/AA/WN, that’s pretty competitive

I like how you want to argue about the fares having gone up by telling me how many carriers are on the route but not citing avg fare data or anything like that...

Ten years ago I flew it regularly for $98 roundtrip, with a wide choice of departures. I rarely see it under $200 anymore, and that's only for basic economy at inconvenient times.

It's only like 400 miles and 1:15 in the air. If they can offer $29 on a route like ATL-MCO then they can offer a similar price here. But when you put 3x/weekly against 6-8 daily on each of the other carriers, they can easily price match and drive them away. Or they might just cede a handful of super-low-yielding traffic and that's all that F9 will ever pick up. Either way it probably won't last through next winter.

Sub-daily flights can work well for international or transcon routes. But when the trip is easily drive-able, people are less willing to adapt to the carrier's schedule. Back when I did this trip once a month, I drove quite often. On average flying only saved about 3 hours so if I couldn't get a departure at a time I wanted, I just didn't bother.

FSDan wrote:

Is FI completely dropping DFW-KEF? I notice that in this report DFW-KEF is still showing some flights in May... So is the season just reduced to peak summer months, or is it really fully gone?

It’s unfortunately fully gone as things stand, announced earlier this month. I hope it’ll come back though at some point in the future as I still believe there’s room for ~180 seats a day on that route, especially once more European connections are added to FI’s network.

peak86 wrote:

joeblow10 wrote:

Did Spirit ever put out an announcement or did they just quietly add DEN-ATL without saying a word?

It is interesting - based on their route map, ATL brings it to 13(?) cities for NK from DEN. It must be doing well for them, but I also want to see how much longer DEN can grow for everybody

I almost think that DEN-ATL and PHL-SJU were prematurely leaked. They were on NKs Where we fly, future service on Spirit’s website, but quickly disappeared. I wonder if there is a batch of coming new routes that these 2 were supposed to be announced with. It’s really not like NK to just add routes without some shameless self promotion.

Beechtobus wrote:

peak86 wrote:

joeblow10 wrote:

Did Spirit ever put out an announcement or did they just quietly add DEN-ATL without saying a word?

It is interesting - based on their route map, ATL brings it to 13(?) cities for NK from DEN. It must be doing well for them, but I also want to see how much longer DEN can grow for everybody

I almost think that DEN-ATL and PHL-SJU were prematurely leaked. They were on NKs Where we fly, future service on Spirit’s website, but quickly disappeared. I wonder if there is a batch of coming new routes that these 2 were supposed to be announced with. It’s really not like NK to just add routes without some shameless self promotion.

ATLDEN and PHLSJU were in the RDU press release:

http://ir.spirit.com/file/Index?KeyFile=396364282

AS needs some brains at the top who have an idea about how to manage a nationwide airline. Not sure that will happen given the homerism on the BoD. It would be best for AS to find some new talent with wider views. The poster about the slow, step-by-step, pullback from transcon raises a fair point.

If AS really cares about the non-competitive inherited Virgin America routes, it'll change course. Otherwise it'll just play into my narrative that AS paid billions to buy out Virgin (and JetBlue) from hindering their west coast yields.

Have at it...

n7371f wrote:

AS needs some brains at the top who have an idea about how to manage a nationwide airline. Not sure that will happen given the homerism on the BoD. It would be best for AS to find some new talent with wider views. The poster about the slow, step-by-step, pullback from transcon raises a fair point.

If AS really cares about the non-competitive inherited Virgin America routes, it'll change course. Otherwise it'll just play into my narrative that AS paid billions to buy out Virgin (and JetBlue) from hindering their west coast yields.

Have at it...

As I said at the time, Alaska buying out Virgin America was a more of a real estate transaction than anything else in that:

1) Alaska didn't want JetBlue having a West Coast hub;
2) Alaska needed slots in JFK, EWR etc that Virgin had for expansion at its own hubs;
3) Alaska needed a larger presence, with the associated gates, at SFO which it got with Virgin;
4) Alaska needed a larger Corporate presence in the Bay Area to compete with Southwest which Virgin gave it.

Forgetting the operational "airline" part of Virgin, in a pure property sense it made sense for AS to buy VA because of the asset it had the AS could use at its own Hubs and Focus Cities. So I don't find it surprising that that is exactly what is happening with placed like SEA and SAN expanding while SFO and LAX are shrunk back a bit.

"Alaska" is not a name for a nationwide airline.
Virgin America was.

heretothere wrote:

Beechtobus wrote:

peak86 wrote:

It is interesting - based on their route map, ATL brings it to 13(?) cities for NK from DEN. It must be doing well for them, but I also want to see how much longer DEN can grow for everybody

I almost think that DEN-ATL and PHL-SJU were prematurely leaked. They were on NKs Where we fly, future service on Spirit’s website, but quickly disappeared. I wonder if there is a batch of coming new routes that these 2 were supposed to be announced with. It’s really not like NK to just add routes without some shameless self promotion.

ATLDEN and PHLSJU were in the RDU press release:

http://ir.spirit.com/file/Index?KeyFile=396364282

Good catch. I wouldn’t have looked for those adds in the RDU press release.

KICT wrote:

"Alaska" is not a name for a nationwide airline.
Virgin America was.

Ah yes, because we all know that a name like "Southwest" isn't well-received in places like Chicago, Nashville, Baltimore, Atlanta, New Orleans, and S.Florida.

LAX772LR wrote:

KICT wrote:

"Alaska" is not a name for a nationwide airline.
Virgin America was.

Ah yes, because we all know that a name like "Southwest" isn't well-received in places like Chicago, Nashville, Baltimore, Atlanta, New Orleans, and S.Florida.

I was waiting for someone to bite. While your point is well taken, there is a difference. For folks in the lower 48, Alaska and Hawaii are very far away.

KICT wrote:

there is a difference. For folks in the lower 48, Alaska and Hawaii are very far away.

And yet, AS is still a popular and profitable airline that has service from throughout the west coast to points all over the nation.

Thus, exactly what effect do you believe being named after something "very far away" actually has?